WILL TOM COLE RESIGN AS HEAD OF THE NRCC?

Will they run the same failed strategy in Mississippi? Probably

The big news this morning isn't that the Republican Party is demonstrably crumbling, as proven by the actual loss of an actual congressional seat in an actual hard-core GOP bastion (PVI- R +7). Don Cazayoux, running on all Democratic economic issues andagainst the occupation of Iraq, beat a Bush rubber stamp wannabe, Woody-KKKpecker. But instead the media is all abuzz about the tea leaves to be read in Guam, the relevance of Eight Belles vs Big Brown, and, of course, Rev. Wright, Rev. Wright, Rev. Wright, Rev. Wright, Rev. Wright; I almost wish Nancy Grace could find some kidnap victim again. Finally, though, this morning the NY Times took note of the mind-blowing loss for the GOP last night in Louisiana.

A Democrat took an open Congressional seat long held by Republicans in the conservative district around Baton Rouge in a special election Saturday, giving the party an early boost in its quest for an increased majority in the House of Representatives.

Don Cazayoux, a state representative, defeated Woody Jenkins, a small-newspaper publisher and former legislator long associated with religious-right causes in Louisiana, by 49 percent to 46 percent, in a tight race for a seat left open by the retirement of Richard Baker, a Republican.

Mr. Cazayoux portrayed himself as little different from Mr. Jenkins on social issues, overcoming the Republicans’ depiction of him as a “liberal” in lock step with figures like the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and Senator Barack Obama, who shared billing with him in a barrage of Republican attack advertisements.

The two parties saw the Louisiana race as an important test for the fall, given how safe the district has been for Republicans for more than three decades. Democrats viewed a potential victory as a measure of Republican vulnerability; Republicans saw it as an indication of how difficult it might be to defend more than two dozen open seats in play in November.

Actually, Cazayoux's campaign was all about the differences-- on Iraq and on economic issues, the two categories voters most care about. Yes, he's an anti-choice Catholic and, like many or even most western and southern Democrats he's "pro-gun." Big whoop; the GOP and a thinly veiled front group spent several million dollars trying to tie Cazayoux to Nancy Pelosi and... believe it or not, Reverend Wright!

Yet when voters went to the polls yesterday, Reverend Wright wasn't on their minds; the Bush Economic Miracle was. As were Iraq, the Republican Culture of Corruption and the revulsion Americans everywhere feel for Bush and the rubber stamps who have enabled him. The NRCC issued a desperate attempt to spin this catastrophic loss into a... well, into a justification for their pitifully failed strategy.

Let's go over the GOP press release, since this is the thinking that we can expect to hear for the next 6 months as the McCain campaign continues to sputter and then, inevitably dies a miserable death, dragging the whole party down with it. Paragraph one:

There is something to be learned from tonight’s results. When Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi were introduced into this campaign, Don Cazayoux was leading by a large margin in the polls. Since then, Republicans saturated the Baton Rouge airwaves in an effort to nationalize this contest and make the election about the real life consequences of a Barack Obama presidency and a continued Pelosi-run Democratic Congress. In that time, Republicans made substantial ground.

Three weeks ago there was an open primary and Democrat Don Cazayoux took 49% while Woody-KKKpecker got 46% of the vote in one of the most Republican strongholds in America. Yesterday, after the GOP spent whatever they could scrape together to poison the airwaves in an attempt to link Cazayoux with Rev. Wright-- something of absolutely zero interest to anyone who isn't a die-hard Rush Limbaugh/Hannity/Coulter fanatic-- and when the votes were counted, Cazayoux had 49% and Woody-KKKpecker had 46%. So what, again, was there to be learned? Paragraph two:

This election speaks to the potential toxicity of an Obama candidacy and the possible drag he could have down-ballot this fall. We have already seen this impact another congressional race as a Democratic candidate for Congress in Mississippi is denying that he was ever endorsed by Barack Obama. In fact, he has referenced any mention of it by Republicans as an “attack.” And, across the country, Democrats in swing districts still refuse to publicly endorse the candidacy of Barack Obama.

Some Democrats favor Obama and some Democrats favor Clinton. They're in the middle of a hard-fought primary. The Republicans, their front groups and their corporate media allies have thrown all they could into the ridiculous meme that Rev. Wright= Obama= Candidate X. No traction whatsoever. The Democratic leaning precincts in East Baton Rouge were energized and turned out massively for Cazayoux yesterday not despite Obama but because of Obama (and Clinton) and because they don't want to see another 4 years of the Bush Regime in the form of a John W. McCain presidency with another rubber stamp Republican Congress. And most of all, they turned out because they agree with the Democrats-- Obama, Clinton, Cazayoux-- on the key issues and disagree with Bush, McCain and Woody-KKKpecker on those same issues... and won't buy into "let's change the subject and remember how racist we are." Take a look at Cazayoux's TV ad. And now watch the GOP ad that lost their man the election. Paragraph three:

By nature, special elections tend to be competitive and their results are not always a harbinger for the November elections, but what we do know is that a Democrat was clearly favored to easily win this election before Republicans invoked the names of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. This should come as a warning shot to Democrats. The elitist behavior of the Democratic frontrunner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped.

Apparently the people who came up with the NRCC's failed strategy are desperately trying to keep their cushy jobs. "A Democrat was clearly favored to easily win this election?" I don't think so. It was 49-46% going into it and 49-46% coming out of it, despite all the millions of Republican dollars and despite all the lies and smears-- and in a district where the Democrats didn't even run a candidate in 2002, ran one who got 19% of the vote in 2004, and didn't bother running one in 2006! They talk about "the elitist behavior" of Obama, a middle class man of mixed ancestry who worked his way through college and, based on his intelligence and talent, has risen to the top in his field. He is elitist? And this from the party controlled by multimillionaires in exclusive, isolated, all-white countryclubs-- whose presidential candidate owns 8 homes and married an heiress with her own jet? That's not elitist? No one is buying their crap anymore-- except for people who are too feeble to be able to reach for the channel changer and get O'Reilly off the screen.

TODAY'S CONGRESSIONAL RACES IN LOUISIANA (UPDATE: CAZAYOUX BEATS KLANSMAN)

Don Cazayoux spells impending disaster for GOP

There were two congressional runoffs today in Louisiana, one to fill the seat that opened when Bobby Jindal became governor and one to fill the seat that became open when Richard Baker made it official and admitted he is a lobbyist. The first CD, the one formerly represented by Jindal, is expected to vote heavily Republican, which is a damned shame, since there is an actual progressive in the race, Gilda Reed. The people there still favor the war in Iraq and Confederate ideals. The 6th CD, centered around Baton Rouge, looks like a toss-up. Don Cazayoux is a conservative Democrat and Woody Jenkins is a neo-fascist Republican. The Secretary of State's website keeps releasing unofficial returns as they come in. So far only 9 parishes have reported (out of 505) in the first CD and only 6 parishes out of 512 in the Baton Rouge race, so the figures are meaningless. I'll be updating throughout the night.

Meanwhile, you can vote too-- but not on these races. Should Vito Fossella, Staten Island's drunken congressman, go to jail for breaking the law? Vote here.

With 64 precincts reporting Jenkins leads 8,978 (55%) to 6,688 (41%); too early to be sure if this means anything.


UPDATE ONE: KKK CANDIDATE PULLS AHEAD IN BATON ROUGE

With 20% of the parishes reporting it's Jenkins with 13,237 (52.7%) and Cazayoux with 10,936 (43.6%).


UPDATE TWO: THERE'S GONNA BE SOME HAPPY KLAN DRAGONS TONIGHT

With about half the precincts counted, Jenkins has 27,457 votes (51.6%) and Cazayoux has 23,308 (43.8%) but... the biggest Democratic precincts of East Baton Rouge haven't reported yet.


UPDATE TROIS: AFRICAN-AMERICAN PRECINCTS OF EAST BATON ROUGE ARE REPORTNG NOW

The race is tightening as Jackson's primary supporters come in big for Cazayoux. With 121 of East Baton Rouge's 314 precincts now in, it's Jenkins with 29,841 (48.9%) and Cazayoux with 28,350 (46.4%)


UPDATE FOUR: IT'S ALL UP TO EAST BATON ROUGE NOW

Virtually all votes are counted in the KKK-heavy areas and all that's left to count are the Democratic strongholds of East Baton Rouge. Any Klansmen who were breaking out the rum and coke or Pabst Blue Ribbon, hold off. Only 156 of East Baton Rouge's 314 precincts are in and Jenkins can still lose this. Right now it's Jenkins with 34,428 (49.1%) and Cazayoux with 32,400 (46.2%).

UPDATE FIVE: CAZAYOUX PULLS AHEAD

The East Baton Rouge precincts are flooding in now and Cazayoux has pulled ahead of Klansman Woody Jenkins.-- 49,312 (49.2%) to 46,282 (46.2%) It is OVER!


UPDATE: FINAL VOTE

Don Cazayoux- 49,702 (49.20%)

Woody Jenkins- 46,741 (46.27%)

The GOP and GOP front groups spent over $4 millions to hold on to this red, red seat. They failed. Do you think it will stop them from blocking veterans' right bills and children's health care? I doubt it. Speaker Pelosi and DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen had every right to gloat tonight. CVH: "For the second time this cycle, Republicans were reminded that 'all politics is local.' House Republicans tried to nationalize this election, illegally coordinated with Freedom's Watch, used false and deceptive special interest smears, and funneled nearly a million dollars into a district that Republicans held for more than three decades. Don won by focusing on the concerns of LA-06 voters -- good paying jobs, affordable health care, and better education."

Nancy P: "Louisianans embraced Don's positive message of strengthening America's middle class by investing in education, creating jobs, making health care more affordable and bringing our brave men and women home from Iraq. His ability to work across party lines and build consensus will be a wonderful addition to the New Direction Congress. Don Cazayoux's victory this evening proves once again that Americans across our country want real solutions and reject Republicans' negative attacks."

YOU ROOTIN' FOR ANYONE IN THE MISSISSIPPI CONGRESSIONAL RACE?

Travis Childers has a "D" next to his name but...

Earlier today we posted about how reactionary Democrats are putting the whole country in serious jeopardy. Blue Dogs are no less a danger to progressive values and to our country than are radical right Republicans. The post happened to have been about how Blue Dogs like Chris Carney are pushing the spineless House Democratic caucus towards the right, but next year at this time, the post could well be about Travis Childers.

The run-off election to fill the seat (MS-01) abandoned by Roger Wicker when he was appointed U.S. Senator following Trent Lott's decision to fulfill his life's dream and become a school teacher sleazy lobbyist, is May 13. In the first round Democrat Travis Childers came in first with 49% and Republican Greg Davis came in second with 46%. It's a heavily red district in northern Mississippi where Kerry managed to carry a mere 37% of the vote, worse than he did statewide. The district is 71.3% white, whereas the state of Mississippi is 60.7% white. The PVI of Mississippi's first CD is R +10. When Ken Hurt challenged Wicker here in 2006, he only got 34% of the vote. So to find Childers the front runner is miraculous. Should we be jumping up and down and cheering for him? Sending his campaign cash so he can run more TV spots (like this one):



I watched it originally because I had read how he was running away from an association with Barack Obama. The GOP has been trying to claim Wright= Obama= candidate X (in this case Childers). Had Childers responded by calling Davis out on it and slapping him down, maybe I would have felt good enough about him to root for him. But he didn't. And I won't-- especially after hearing what about himself he chose to emphasize in his own ad:

I'm pro-life and pro-gun

Who needs Republicans when you have Democrats like Travis Childers? Some Democrats will argue that he is better than Davis on many issues-- which is true. He is. Some of our progressive friends are promoting him as "an economic populist who supports S-CHIP, opposes CAFTA and wants us to withdraw our troops from Iraq in 12 to 18 months." I like all that.

But what I don't like can be found right here. Scroll down 'til you find Dan Boren (D-OK), Joe Donnelly (D-IN), John Barrow (D-GA), Nick Lampson (D-TX) and Jim Marshall (D-GA). This 5 reactionaries are each "better" than the Republicans they ran against. But each, since getting into Congress, has voted more frequently with the right-wing Republicans on substantive issues than they have with Democrats. Even worse, they have pulled the Democratic majority right-ward. Travis Childers will fit in somewhere between Joe Donnelly and Jim Marshall.

If he wins, I'll be happy to see the GOP sink further into a morass of demoralizing, debilitating fear of impending doom. But that isn't worth a single prayer-- not when I'm sending every good vibe I've got out to real Democrats like the ones on this list. Some of these men and women are also in prohibitively red constituencies. Not one is running away from Obama or from core progressive values. And, as we mentioned before, the race in Baton Rouge (run-off on Saturday) is nearly identical, although I gather Cazayoux isn't quite as reactionary as Childers, and not as anti-Democrat as the NY Times article makes him out to be. This morning's CQPolitics reminds us that the GOP is battling against the odds to hold onto this seat. And, as usual, they're playing dirty. Here's something I got from one of Cazayoux's supporters:

They claim wrongly that the only reason we have a chance of winning in this ruby-red district is because our candidate has rejected the Democratic party and its issues.

Cazayoux's campaign signs say: "Don Cazayoux-- DEMOCRAT for Congress". True he's pro-gun and pro-life, but he's focused his campaign on solid Democratic issues-- expanding health care, against CAFTA and Columbia free trade deal, strongly pro-union, increased funding for public education.

What about Iraq? The candidates in this race are diametrically opposed. Don's website says: "I believe we need to change directions in Iraq and bring our troops home responsibly and with honor"

Woody Jenkins, his Republican opponent, says on his website "Woody supports the Surge in Iraq and continued efforts in Afghanistan and opposes a fixed timetable for withdrawal. U.S. military action should be guided by ground commanders not politicians."

The reporter apparently went to one candidate forum and was shocked that Don didn't sing a love ballad to Pelosi and Obama for the audience. Like any smart candidate, he deflected the question by saying the he owed his allegiance to his constituents first, not national party leaders. But he certainly didn't disown them.

The article goes on to say that Don "spoke approvingly of Senator John McCain." People at the forum told me all that he said was that he wouldn't reject McCain's gas tax without further study. Wow, I guess that means he really loves John McCain.

UPDATE: GOP SLANDER ADS BEING PULLED OFF TV STATIONS

The swiftboat-like GOP front group, Freedom's Watch, is the one running the race-baiting ads deceptively tying conservative southern Democrats like Childers and Cazayoux to Rev Wright. TV stations are loathe to reject ads but this one was found so outrageous that Baton Rouge's top station, CBS-affiliate WAFB-TV, took it off the air. And today we hear that a station in Memphis, WHBQ, FOX 13, did the same thing with the Freedom's Watch attack ad against Childers.

DON CAZAYOUX SHOWS HIS COLOR... BUT DO THEY CALL THAT BLUE IN LOUISIANA?

Democrat Don Cazayoux looks like he will beat KKK Republican Woody Jenkins in the race to replace lobbyist Richard Baker in a Louisiana congressional district centered on Baton Rouge. How happy should progressives be? Well, there can be little doubt that Cazayoux will vote for a pro-worker/pro-middle class agenda more often than the radical right-- some say neo-fascist-- Jenkins. And that's a good thing. Unfortunately, it's the only good thing.

A story in today's L.A. Times illustrates the problems with electing reactionary Democrats like Cazayoux. Allow me to veer off on a tangent and I promise to come back to Cazayoux in a moment. I'm reading 3 books simultaneously now-- one by Arianna Huffington, one by Cliff Schecter and one by Senator Lincoln Chafee (it just depends on which room I'm in when I get an urge to step away from the computer). I want to quote the defeated Republican senator's recollections of the first big battle the Congress had in their struggle with the Unitary Executive, soon after the radical right stole the 2000 election for Bush and Cheney.

For many Americans the first real memory of the Bush presidency is date-stamped September 11, 2001. They forget the pitched political battles of the first nine months in office. The central front in his war on Congress was this $1.6 trillion raid on the public purse [tax curs for the rich].

The outcome was uncertain given the dynamics of an evenly divided Senate. Democrats were largely opposed, but Georgia Democrat Zell Miller, a throwback to the pre-civil rights South, had defected and even signed on as a cosponsor of the Bush tax cuts. Democrats were especially worried that John Breaux of Louisiana and Ben Nelson of Nebraska might waver.

In the end Miller, true to form, voted with the GOP, while Breaux and Nelson worked within the Democratic Party to water down opposition and force the caucus-- in return for their "support"-- to give way drastically to Bush's demands.

We don't have to go back into history to find how Republican-lite Democrats rot the Democratic Party from within and disillusion and turn off the base. Largely due to Rahm Emanuel's and the DCCC's recruitment policies-- "me too Democrats," who could as easily be Republicans on the big issues-- the Democratic congressional caucus is often held hostage by conservatives unfriendly towards the needs and aspirations of working families. Whether on Iraq, on trade policy, on tax policy, on health care, Blue Dogs, Bush Dogs and the insidious Rahm Caucus either break with Democrats entirely and vote with the GOP or else work to water down progressive legislation in return for their votes. When it comes to substantive issues that narrowly divide the two parties, there are 18 reactionary Democrats-- Jim Marshall (GA), Nick Lampson (TX), John Barrow (GA), Joe Donnelly (IN), Dan Boren (OK), Brad Ellsworth (IN), Jason Altmire (PA), Heath Shuler (NC), Jim Matheson (UT), Chris Carney (PA), Zach Space (OH), Gene Tayor (MS), Melissa Bean (IL), Harry Mitchell (AZ), Baron Hill (IN), Tim Mahoney (FL), Mike McIntyre (NC), and Gabby Giffords (AZ)-- who have actually voted more frequently with the GOP than with the Democrats... but only on the important stuff. [Lincoln Davis (TN) and Bud Cramer (AL) have voted an equal number of times for and against the Bush agenda.]

The election of Don Cazayoux will add another "Democrat" to this list. And that brings us back to today's story in the L.A. Times, ostensibly about Obama's campaign and the radical right's attacks on him but, in reality, about political courage, or lack of it.

In Louisiana, a TV ad attacking Obama's healthcare agenda as "radical" proved so threatening that the House candidate it targeted, Democrat Don Cazayoux, distanced himself from Obama on Thursday, issuing a stern statement saying that he "has not endorsed any national politician."

Today's Washington Post points to an ad from a right wing extremist smear outfit, Freedom's Watch: "'A vote for Don Cazayoux is a vote for Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi,'" the narrator says, referring to the House speaker." The ad refers to Obama's health care proposals as a "radical health care agenda." Many Clinton supporters are reluctant to back Obama because they claim his health care proposals don't go far enough. Americans, unlike the extreme right Big Pharma-funded 527s, want meaningful health care reform. If Cazayoux can't stand up and defend this... what good is he?

This morning I spoke with a progressive PAC chairman and asked him why progressives like him aren't matching the gigantic budgets the far right PACs are pouring into the Baton Rouge district. "Money is scarce and why prop up conservatives who can't be counted on to support us when real progressives like Gary Peters in Michigan, Darcy Burner in Washington and Dennis Shulman in New Jersey won't need their arms twisted to go in there and fight for working families. There isn't enough money to go around for every Democrat and we're using ours to support candidates who take strong stands on our issues, not people who will be likely to listen to the same corrupt lobbyists the Republicans listen to. He seems to have a lot more money than Jenkins and maybe he can get some more from his buddies at the NRA."

I looked around a little and found that Cazayoux has a position on health care. From his website: "Cazayoux does not believe a big government program is the solution; he supports a market-based solution that will increase access to quality, affordable healthcare.  Cazayoux believes that increasing access to health care for everyone will drive down the cost of premiums for those who currently have insurance." I'd love to find out how this differs from your garden variety Republican.

THE BAD NEWS TRAIN ROLLING TOWARDS ANOTHER RED DISTRICT? LA-06 TURNING BLUE?

A spate of recent Special Elections have been more than catastrophic for the Republican Party. They've pointed to a tsunami of resentment-- if not outright hatred-- for the GOP brand. Voters realize it isn't just Bush and Cheney, but all the enablers and co-conspirators who have been so damaging to our country. And voters are responding appropriately-- even in deeply red parts of the country. A state Senate seat in upstate New York that hasn't elected a Democrat since before McCain was born-- actually since before McCain's mother was born-- did just that on February 26. And the same night a central Florida district gerrymandered specifically to be a safe home for Republicans saw an unbelievable upset when Tony Sasso beat his big-spending GOP rival to replace GOP toilet trawler Bob Allen. And then came McCain's big play to keep Denny Hastert's GOP heartland seat red. Oberweis, the RNCC, and McCain spent a ton of money but still lost to a Democratic political novice.

Today's CongressDaily warns that "Republicans hoping for a respite from the bad electoral news that the special election in Illinois' 14th District brought last month should seek cover. Things might get worse before they get better." By worse they're referring to the Baton Rouge, Louisiana seat Richard Baker is trading in to go work as a lobbyist (LA-06). Normally it would be considered a very safe red district with a PVI of R+7. But on top of the public's overall disdain for Republicans, there has been a demographic shift in the district after Katrina and the Republican wound up with the worst possible candidate, someone associated win voters' minds with the KKK.

Before 2005's Hurricane Katrina, the black population accounted for 33 percent of the district's residents. That's a very high number for a Republican-held seat. In fact, there are only two other Republicans that sit in seats with a higher percentage.

Since Katrina, however, that percentage in Baker's district has likely risen. While official numbers haven't been compiled districtwide, the numbers in East Baton Rouge County, the seat's largest county, should be enough to give Republicans pause. In 2000, blacks made up 40 percent of the county's population. Today that number is 46 percent.

But causing the most angst among Republicans isn't the demographics of the seat, or even the current atmosphere that seems to be poisonous to the party. It's their likely nominee.

When Baker announced his retirement, there weren't too many high-profile Republicans that were looking at running, at least publicly. The favorite of the establishment early on appeared to be former Baker's chief of staff, Paul Sawyer.

But his name didn't have the cache Republicans were hoping for. In a short special election contest, name ID would play a huge role. Into that void came the well-known, or some would say, notorious, Woody Jenkins, a former GOP state senator and 1996 Senate nominee.

In that Senate race, Jenkins had the distinction of being one of the two most conservative candidates in the race. The other conservative was former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. So right off the bat, being associated with Duke as the field's two conservatives did Jenkins no favors.

Jenkins lost to Mary Landrieu in a very bitter general election which left the public with the impression that he is an extremist loon who cut a deal with the KKK. "Jenkins couldn't shake the image of being out of step with the state. In fact, it seems that 'ultra conservative' couldn't be written in news stories unless Jenkins was attached to it... Sawyer tried to use some of this background to his advantage when he aired a TV ad right before the primary alleging that Jenkins had a business relationship with Duke and tried to cover it up." It didn't do Sawyer much good but it helped remind voters how extreme right Jenkins is. And now he has to face a very well-known, right-of-center Democrat in the general election on May 3rd. The DCCC recruited anti-choice reactionary state Rep. Don Cazayoux. This race should cost the NRCC whatever small amount they have left in their pilfered treasury.