The Count Down To Impeachment Has Now Begun

A lot of people I hired to play concerts at Stony Brook died young and not long after they played their shows-- Jim Morrison (27), Jimi Hendrix (27), Janis Joplin (27), Otis Redding (26), Tim Buckley (28). Tim Hardin died in 1980, age 39, still young, still tragic... but at least not right after his concert at my school! Last Thursday on Nicole Sanders' show I held the phone up to me speakers and let her listeners hear at little of "Reason to Believe," my favorite Tim Hardin song. I did it because a member of Congress, in response to me asking about Jerry Nadler having said "I view this president and his conduct as the greatest threat to the democratic system and to the constitutional government since the Civil War, whether it’s threatening the newspapers or threatening the judiciary or calling people who criticize him treasonous," told me to be sure to watch Nadler on Sunday. The implication was that he would announce that the preliminary steps towards impeachment hearings were beginning.

(Unless ABC News has removed it, as they've been doing all day), this is a video of George Stephanopoulos' whole show, but don't worry-- Nadler was the first guest. In the intro-- with Nadler sitting right across from him-- Stephanopoulos used the "I" word. First question: "Did you learn anything from the Michael Cohen hearing this week that would lead you to open an impeachment investigation?" Listen to how Nadler-- no doubt having gone over the wording carefully with Pelosi-- handled the question. He didn't flat out say "yes," as he should have, but gave us plenty of reason to believe.



Stephanopoulos was trying to get him to admit they were beginning the impeachment process. Nadler deftly danced around it, although he said, flatly-- seemingly in contradiction of the bullshit Pelosi has been spouting all year-- that what his committee has to do is not sit around waiting for Mueller. "Crimes and impeachable offenses are two different things. There can be crimes that are impeachable offenses and impeachable offenses that are not crimes. They’re just two different tests. But we have to lay out for the American people and we can’t depend on the Mueller investigation for this. The Mueller investigation, number one, we don’t know when it’s ending despite lots of rumors, number two it’s focused on specific crimes. And we have to focus much more broadly on abuses of power and what I said a moment ago... We are starting this investigation, we will-- tomorrow we will be issuing document requests to over 60 different people and individuals from the White House, to the Department of Justice, Donald Trump Jr., Alan Weisselberg to begin investigations to present the case to the American people about obstruction of justice, corruption and abuse of power... [W] will be releasing the list tomorrow."

He aded that his committee's investigation will go "far beyond collusion. We’ve seen all the democratic norms that we depend on for democratic government attacked by the administration. We’ve seen attacks on the freedom of the press, the press called the enemy of the people, we’ve seen attacks on the Department of Justice, attacks on the FBI, attacks on-- on judges. All of these are very corrosive to liberty and to the proper functioning of government and to our constitutional system. All this has to be looked at and the facts laid out to the American people." When Stephanopoulos asked him if he thinks Trump obstructed justice, Nadler sad, flatly, "Yes, I do... It’s very clear that the president obstructed justice. It’s very clear-- 1,100 times he referred to the Mueller investigation as a 'witch hunt,' he tried to-- he fired-- he tried to protect Flynn from being investigated by the FBI. He fired Comey in order to stop the 'Russian thing,' as he told NBC News. He-- he’s dangled pardons... he’s intimidated witnesses in public... We have to do the investigations and get all this. We do not now have the evidence all sorted out and everything to do-- to do an impeachment. Before you impeach somebody, you have to persuade the American public that it ought to happen. You have to persuade enough of the-- of the opposition party voters, Trump voters, that you’re not just trying to... We may or may not get there but what we have to do is protect the rule of law."

All the members of the Judiciary Committee I spoke with are eager to get going with this. Ted Lieu was in Selma, Alabama with John Lewis yesterday, but when he got back this morning, he told me that "Unlike last term, the House Judiciary Committee will actually conduct oversight over the Executive Branch. Instead of holding stupid hearings about why Republican legislators don't get enough likes on Facebook, we will be holding hearings on whether any crimes were committed by Executive Branch officials and those within their orbit. We have launched a massive investigation into Trump, his family and his associates. We do not work for Trump. We are part of a separate and coequal branch of government. And we intend to honor our oath of office."

Bye-Bye Bibi?

In its report on Netanyahu's developing indictment story this morning, CBS News noted that "if indicted it would make the first time in Israel's history that a sitting prime minister is charged with a crime." Netanyahu was in Moscow meeting with another right-wing crook, Vladamir Putin, when the stories started breaking in Israel and around the world early yesterday. I might add that if Trump is indicted it would make the first time in U.S. history that a sitting president is charged with a crime." That sounds like a move in the right direction-- both for Israel and the U.S.

Once the high court turned down a request from Likud to block the announcement of an indictment, The timing on this-- it's been in the works for 3 years-- is far more crucial than a non-Israeli might guess because... the national elections are a month away. Haaretz noted this morning that the indictment changes everything. When Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit announced today that he had finally decided to "indict him for bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three separate cases, pending a hearing," make it more difficult for Netanyahu to just shrug the whole thing off as a left-wing "witch hunt," as he's been doing for a couple of years now.

One of the largest teams of investigators ever – from the police and Securities Authority, and attorneys at all levels of the Justice Ministry-- have worked on this case for three years. There was even a "devil’s advocate" team of lawyers tasked with presenting the defendants’ case.

...[I]n the 24 hours before Mendelblit’s announcement, you could already hear an evolution in their messaging. There’s a new tone. It is saying that no matter what Netanyahu is accused of and what he may have done, Israel needs him. If he is forced to leave, Israel’s security will be in jeopardy, so stop making such a fuss about a few cigars and some friendly articles on a website.

Just a day before Mendelblit’s announcement on Thursday evening, Netanyahu was still in Moscow, meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was the perfect setting for the new message-- Israel needs Netanyahu because only he can speak to Putin. The main quote the Prime Minister’s Office released from the meeting encapsulated that: Netanyahu had apparently told Putin “the direct link between us is a vital component in preventing risks and friction between our militaries and contributes to security and stability in the region."

The Russian-speaking Environmental Protection Minister Zeev Elkin sat in on the Putin-Netanyahu meeting. He was on Israeli radio immediately after returning to extol Netanyahu’s personal rapport with his Russian counterpart and to paint a farcical picture of Kahol Lavan co-leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid arriving to meet Putin, arguing between them over who would go in first.

Netanyahu’s inner circle understands that it has to accept that some voters will believe Mendelblit, and they need to convince them that if even the indictments are true, it doesn’t mean Netanyahu must leave.

They are exposed not only to the recently published polls, which are showing a slow but noticeable shift of right-wing voters from the governing coalition parties-- particularly Kulanu, but also Likud-- toward Gantz and Lapid’s [Blue and White] alliance. They are also reading the internal polling that is showing, in the words of one right-wing pollster working for a coalition party, that “the Likud vote is brittle-- holding for now, but Mendelblit’s announcement could break off a significant proportion.”

Netanyahu will shrug off all the allegations and pretend everything can continue as normal. He is still prime minister, defense minister and leader of Likud. But he knows that from today, he is a prime minister on notice. Israel has never been in this situation; these are uncharted waters.

What’s more, everyone around Netanyahu will know he is on notice. Next month, in the White House, President Donald Trump will know it. The audience at the AIPAC Policy Conference will know it. It will be at the front of the minds of everyone engaging with him-- including Putin when they next talk on the phone.

When Israelis go to vote on April 9, for the first time they will be asked to vote for a prime minister on notice. Should Netanyahu still succeed in winning enough votes to enter coalition negotiations, the other party leaders, his potential partners, will be able to demand the kind of prices a premier under notice must pay.

Mendelblit’s decision is not yet the final indictment. But it is a new millstone hung around Netanyahu’s neck, a weight no previous Israeli prime minister has ever experienced. He will now have to carry it around wherever he goes, and it will drag him down.

If Israel can save itself from a corrupt leader, why can't the U.S.? And, as serious as Netanyahu's crimes are, they appear almost insignificant compared to Trump's. If you've gotten this far in the story, I'm going to give you a treat than no one else knows and that I'm not going to go on Twitter and carry on about. On Sunday's talking heads shows-- one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind. Tim Hardin knows nothing about impeaching Trump but... tune in on Sunday.