Republican Triage Hits Nevada

Two weeks ago we took a quick peak at how the NRCC had begun the triage process. I completely forgot serial loser Danny Tarkanian. Tarkanaian started running for office in 2004, when he ran for state Senate. He lost. Two years later he ran for Secretary of State. He lost. Then it was U.S. Senate in 2010, He lost. He ran for Congress in 2012 (and again in 2016). He lost both times. He ran for the state Education System in 2014. He lost. This year he decided to challenge Republican incumbent Dean Heller for the GOP Senate nomination. But, when polling showed him losing-- and when Trump told him not to run against Heller-- he pulled out and decided to run for the open congressional seat in NV-03. The last time he ran in the 3rd, this is what happened:

• Jacky Rosen- 146,869 (47.23%)
• Danny Tarkanian- 142,926 (45.96%)

On that same day Trump beat Hillary in that district by a full point.



His opponent in the R+2 district is New Dem and socialite Susie Lee, a really heinous, dreadful candidate, though perhaps not as heinous and dreadful as Tarkanian. As of June 30 she had raised $2,129,227 to his $1,186,612. They both won their June 12 primaries convincingly, Lee with 25,475 votes (66.9%) and Tarkanian with 15,257 votes (44.1%). 38,073 Democrats voted in the primary-- primarily because Trump had endorsed him-- but just 34,572 Republicans showed up. And that brings us to Jon Ralston's report that the NRCC had decided, despite Trump's backing to Tarkanian-- to toss him overboard. Aware they're going to lose their House majority, the NRCC wants to preserve their resources for candidates who can win. In their view, that doesn't include Tarkanian. They're putting their Nevada resources behind Cresent Hardy in his NV-04 race instead. In that re-run of the 2012 election, former Congressman Steve Horsford has raised $682,449 and former Congressman Cresent Hardy has raised $415,967. Unions have already spent $695,078 supporting Horsford and the NRCC is well aware they're going to have to drop millions of dollars into the district and feel they can't spend it in both the 3rd and the 4th.

Ralston found the decision to drop Tarkanian and stick with Hardy odd, "considering the difference in district demographics: In CD-04, where Hardy is trying to reclaim his old seat from the man he defeated four years ago, Steven Horsford, Democrats have a 9 percentage-point lead. In CD-03, where Tarkanian is taking on Democrat Susie Lee, Democrats have only a 2 percentage-point edge."

What this decision means practically is that whatever ad reservations and money already has been laid down in the market by the NRCC will not be split between the two districts but funnelled into the CD-04 race-- and all future investment will be to help Hardy.

Of course, if polling warrants, this decision is not irrevocable. But this withdrawal of support is a devastating blow to Tarkanian, who already is in a huge financial hole to Lee and needs outside help to be competitive monetarily and on the airwaves.

I’m told the NRCC has polling that shows both races close and thus could have made sound arguments for investing solely in either one. But this decision is a clear sign that the NRCC believes in Hardy and also has data that indicates:

1. Tarkanian, who has never won a race, is…Tarkanian; and 2. Horsford has identifiable vulnerabilities, some of which were exploited when Hardy beat him in 2014 in one of the biggest upsets in Nevada annals.

This will become evident in mid-September when the airwave ad glut takes hold here and elsewhere. House GOP strategists are optimistic that control could come down to a handful of seats, and Nevada is one of the few places they can play offense instead of defense (two open Democratic seats) so naturally they want to focus all of their energies and resources on one race so as to not dilute their efforts.

Clearly the NRCC wasn't just looking at the odds. 2 in 7 (27.4%) is pretty piss poor odds to gamble on:

But 1 in 7 (15.2%  is far worse:

In the other big Nevada races, a new Suffolk poll shows Democrat Steve Sisolak with a 2 point lead over Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt in the governor's race, and conservative Democrat Jacky Rosen leading incumbent Dean Heller (R) by less than a percentage point in the Senate race. Trump's statewide approval/disapproval rating is 46/50%.

Nevada Electoral Action Is High In Las Vegas This Year-- Churn, Churn, Churn

Right-wing lunatic Cresent Hardy (left) is sporting a hipster look for his 2018 congressional run

The population of Nevada is 2,940,058. The population of Clark County (the Las Vegas Metro) is 2,155,664. That's where the state's people live. (The only other county with a significant number of people is Washoe--Reno and Sparks-- with 446,903 people.) Clark County elects 3 of Nevada's 4 members of Congress and last year there was turnover as voters ousted a GOP incumbent, Cresent Hardy, in NV-04, with Democrat Ruben Kihuen, and replaced Republican JoeHeck, who left his NV-03 House seat to run, unsuccessfully for the Senate, with Jacky Rosen. Kihuen ran as an unabashed progressive but joined the New Dems, ran up a miserable voting record (ProgressivePunch rates him a "D") and was forced to retire after being caught molesting women. Jacky Rosen is worse. She ran as a nothing and ran up one of the worst voting records in Congress-- ProgressivePunch rates her an "F"-- which, of course attracted Chuck Schumer's attention, who offered to back her in the Senate race against Republican Dean Heller.

That means the same two Clark County seats that flipped red to blue in 2016 are up for grabs again this year. Obama won both districts both rimes he ran. In 2016 Hillary and Trump had close elections. Trump won NV-03 47.5% to 46.5% and Hillary won NV-04 with a more comfortable 49.5% to 44.6%. The 3rd flipped from an even PVI to an R+2 and the 4th went from a PVI of D+4 to a D+3. This cycle's DCCC candidates includes extremely wealthy Mob-connected socialite Susie Lee among their shitty candidate in the list of disastrous Red to Blue program. She's beyond horrible and when she ran in 2016 (in the 4th district primary) she spent the most money ($1,492,274, of which $674,805 came out of her own bank account) and came in a distant 3rd behind Kihuen and Berniecrat Lucy Flores. So far there are 7 candidates running as Democrats in NV-03-- Lee (who was endorsed by EMILY's List and has no issues on her website, Jack Love, Hermon Farahi, Richard Hart, Guy Pinjuv, Steve Schiffman (who seems to be running for mayor of Jerusalem, not for the U.S. Congress) and Michael Weiss (who sounds like a Berniecrat)-- and 6 candidates running as Republicans-- Victoria Seaman, Scott Hammond, David McKeon, Eddie Hamilton Stephanie Jones, and Michelle Mortensen. Some of them may have dropped out by now. By the end of the 3rd quarter only 5 had raised any money:

• Susie Lee (D)- $315,178
• Victoria Seaman (R)- $114,008
• Scott Hammond (R)- $51,700
• David McKeon (R)- $39,695
• Jack Love (D)- $10,950

Now let's look at the 4th district, the bluer one, to replace the disgraced Kihuen. Democrats in the race so far include state Senator Patricia Spearman, Berniecrat Amy Vilela and high school principal John Anzalone. There has been constant chatter that both Steven Horsford, the district’s first representative (who was defeated by Cresent Hardy in 2014) and North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, are also about to jump into the race. On the Republican side, GOP frontrunner Las Vegas City Councilman Stavros Anthony just announced he's getting out of the race, presumably to make way for Hardy, the ex-Congressman Kihuen had defeated in 2016. Anthony had already raised $141,145 by the end of the third quarter and probably as much by the end of the 4th (which hasn't been reported yet).

Good Candidates Don't Accept DCCC Endorsements In Primaries

Worth 10 DCCC Red to Blue Endorsements

The DCCC claims to be neutral in primaries but always puts its fingers on the scale for corrupt conservatives from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, Blue Dogs and New Dems, never for progressives. The DCCC favors wealthy self-funders and "ex"-Republicans. They recruit them and back them and help them disadvantage candidates from working class backgrounds. Is the DCCC anti-union? They probably don't even realize it, but, of course they are. Let's take a look at a DCCC press release masquerading as reporting in yesterday's Roll Call: DCCC Names First 11 Candidates In 'Red To Blue' Program."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is naming 11 candidates Wednesday to the first round of its Red to Blue program, which highlights strong Democratic recruits.

The list of 11 candidates, obtained first by Roll Call, includes recruits running in 10 competitive GOP-held seats and in one open seat Democrats are hoping to keep blue.

Washington Rep. Denny Heck, the chair of recruitment, and Massachusetts Rep. Katherine Clark, the vice chair of recruitment, will co-chair this cycle's Red to Blue program.

Being named to Red to Blue opens doors for candidates who can tout their inclusion on the list to donors. Candidates also benefit from guidance and staff resources from the DCCC, which has been in contact with all Democratic House candidates who have been willing to collaborate and communicate with the committee this year.

The DCCC evaluates candidates’ fundraising, grassroots engagement, local support, ties to the community and campaign infrastructure when deciding who makes the cut for Red to Blue.

This cycle’s first round is earlier than last cycle’s when the first 16 candidates were named in early February of the on-year. Additional rounds of Red to Blue candidates for 2018 will be rolled out more frequently and in more targeted batches than in previous election cycles.

“The House is in play in 2018 and incredible Democratic challengers are stepping up to run across the largest offensive battlefield in a decade,” DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján said in a statement. The DCCC expanded its target list last week, for a total of 91 GOP-held seats.

“These candidates have their own unique experiences rooted in these districts, but what they all have in common are records of service to their communities and our country,” Luján added.

The DCCC on Wednesday is also naming certain districts to two additional lists-- Majority Makers and True Blue.

Then they named the 11 crap candidates along with how much money they ended the third quarter with. They didn't bother to mention that most of the candidate are from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, either Blue Dog or New Dem recruits-- or in several cases-- both. Another couple are EMILY's List recruits.

• New Dem Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-02)- $269,000
• Jason Crow (CO-06)- $393,000
• Abby Finkenauer (IA-01)- $169,000
• Blue Dog Brendan Kelly (IL-12)- $305,000
• Blue Dog Paul Davis (KS-02)- $344,000
• New Dem Elissa Slotkin (MI-08)- $377,000
• New Dem Angie Craig (MN-02)- wealthy self-funder
• Blue Dog Dan McCready (NC-09)- $700,000
• Susie Lee (NV-03)- multimillionaire self-funder
• Blue Dog Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)- $399,000
• Chrissy Houlahan (PA-06)- $662,000

Kirkpatrick is a loser and a carpetbagger from up north who the DCCC is trying to shove down the throats of southern Arizonans. She has shown in the past that she can get swept into office in a wave election-- but her GOP voting record always guarantees she's defeated in midterms when Democrats refuse to come out and vote for her. She's an NRA poster child (literally) and an all-around conservative Democrat. The DCCC is always touting fundraising as an indication of viability but two other candidates, Matt Heinz and Mary Matiella are also raising the kind of money that proves viability. We reached Mary yesterday and she told us that ""The DCCC is right about AZ-02 being a great pickup opportunity but they're wrong if they think an establishment/corporate Dem is the way to win. Southern Arizonans are a fiercely independent bunch and ultimately it's the voters, not the establishment who will decide who best represents their values." A week ago she said something similar, namely that "Polls show that voters want an authentic, relatable candidate-- someone who understands them. The DCCC wants a candidate who can raise funds. This disconnect in candidate vetting disenfranchises the voter."



There's a similar dynamic in Colorado's 6th district, where the progressive candidate, Levi Tillemann is also raising 6 figuresand inspiring grassroots woke Democrats while the aggressively UNWOKE DCCC is pushing a the same kind of candidate they see when they look in the mirror, someone who represents rich people.

Wealthy Vegas socialite-- the candidate of the casino magnates-- Susie Lee ran a terrible campaign against Ruben Kihuen last cycle. This time she moved to the open seat on the other side of town, having as little in common with the people there as she did in the 2016 campaign. That's when she spent around a million and a half dollars and got just 6,407 votes, coming in third against two grassroots candidates. But Pelosi just cannot resist those multimillionaire candidates. There are more multimillionaires claiming to be Democrats in Congress than ever before. who would have ever guessed that would be Nancy Pelosi's legacy!

We reached out to Jeff Erdmann, the non-multimillionaire in the Minnesota race where the DCCC is trying to tip the scales for Angie Craig, the candidate supported by Big Pharma lobbyists. "In a time where all the polls tell us that people think the Democratic party is for the ultra-rich," Jeff told us, "it’s disappointing that the DCCC would back an ultra-rich candidate who lobbied to suspend the medical device tax as the medical device company Medtronic was sending its headquarters overseas. This is especially troubling as they are backing a corporate elite in a primary against a teacher who’s lived in the district and south-eastern Minnesota his entire life and is running to lift up the community. It seems as if the Democratic leadership has yet to learn it’s lessons from 2016. We the people need to rise up and take back the party and that starts with supporting candidates that are working class."