Can Trump Be Toppled Without Bloodshed?

Melania avoids being seen anywhere near Trump as much as she can and I bet it isn't just because she loathes him. She's from Slovenia, separated from Romania by a stretch of southern Hungary. In 1989, she was just 19 years old, a model and prostitute in her hometown and in nearby Ljubljana and she remembers well when Romanian president Nicolae Ceaușescu and his wife Elena fled their palace and were arrested and summarily executed in Târgoviște, a small town in the southern part of the country. Elena shrieked, "You sons of bitches!" as she was being dragged to a wall to be shot. (120 bullets were found in the couple's bodies. The following year, the revolutionary government responsible for the execution, abolished capital punishment.)

Anyway... Melania doesn't want to wind up against a wall and shot just because she's married to a fascist pig. And yesterday The Atlantic published a piece by Franklin Foer, The Trump Regime Is Beginning To Topple. No doubt Melania hopes when they come and drag Trump out of the White House, they overlook her and grab Ivanka instead. "Over the course of his presidency," wrote Foer, "Donald Trump has indulged his authoritarian instincts-- and now he’s meeting the common fate of autocrats whose people turn against them. What the United States is witnessing is less like the chaos of 1968, which further divided a nation, and more like the nonviolent movements that earned broad societal support in places such as Serbia, Ukraine, and Tunisia, and swept away the dictatorial likes of Milošević, Yanukovych, and Ben Ali."

No doubt Melania likes that "non-violent" description but I'm sure she's thinking of the horrifying photos she saw-- an impressionable a 19 yearly hooker-- of First Lady Elena Ceaușescu, being dragged out of a kangaroo court kicking and screaming

to a wall to be shot like a dog

Foer though predicts that "Trump’s time in office will end with an election and not an ouster, it is only possible to grasp the magnitude of what we’re seeing and to map what comes next by looking to these antecedents from abroad. As in the case of many such revolutions, two battles are being waged in America. One is a long struggle against a brutal and repressive ideology. The other is a narrower fight over the fate of a particular leader. The president rose to power by inflaming racial tensions. He now finds his own fate enmeshed in the struggle against police brutality and racism.

The most important theorist of nonviolent revolutions is the late political scientist Gene Sharp. A conscientious objector during the Korean War who spent nine months in prison, Sharp became a close student of Mahatma Gandhi’s struggles. His work set out to extract the lessons of the Indian revolt against the British. He wanted to understand the weaknesses of authoritarian regimes-- and how nonviolent movements could exploit them. Sharp distilled what he learned into a 93-page handbook, From Dictatorship to Democracy, a how-to guide for toppling autocracy.

Sharp’s foundational insight is embedded in an aphorism: “Obedience is at the heart of political power.” A dictator doesn’t maintain power on his own; he relies on individuals and institutions to carry out his orders. A successful democratic revolution prods these enablers to stop obeying. It makes them ashamed of their complicity and fearful of the social and economic costs of continued collaboration.

Sharp posited that revolutionaries should focus first on the regime’s softest underbelly: the media, the business elites, and the police. The allegiance of individuals in the outer circle of power is thin and rooted in fear. By standing strong in the face of armed suppression, protesters can supply examples of courage that inspire functionaries to stop carrying out orders, or as Sharp put it, to “withhold cooperation.” Each instance of resistance provides the model for further resistance. As the isolation of the dictators grows-- as the inner circles of power join the outer circle in withholding cooperation-- the regime crumbles.

This is essentially what transpired in Ukraine in 2014. When the country’s president backed away from plans to join the European Union, a crowd amassed in Kyiv’s central square, the Maidan. The throngs initially had no avowed intention or realistic hope of overthrowing the kleptocratic president, Viktor Yanukovych. But instead of letting the demonstrators shout themselves hoarse in the thick of subfreezing winter, Yanukovych set about violently confronting them. This tactic backfired horribly. A movement with limited aims became a full-blown revolution. Oligarchs quietly slunk away from a leader they had long subsidized. Lackeys who had faithfully served the regime resigned, for fear of attracting the public’s ire. In the bitter end, Yanukovych found himself isolated, alone with his own family and his Russian advisers, destined for exile.

It is astonishing how events in the U.S., despite all the obvious imperfections of the analogy, have traced the early phases of this history. This is observable in the images of the crowds on successive nights, as Trump’s violent suppression of the protests in Lafayette Square has only caused their ranks to swell. And it’s possible to see how elites, in the course of just a few days, have begun to withhold cooperation, starting with the outer circles of power and quickly turning inward.

Twitter’s decision to label Trump’s posts as misleading was a hinge moment. For years, the company had provided the president with a platform for propaganda and a mechanism for cowing his enemies, a fact that long irked both critics outside Twitter and employees within. Only when Trump used Twitter to threaten violence against the protests did the company finally limit the ability of users to see or share a tweet.

Once Twitter applied its rules to Trump-- and received accolades for its decision-- it inadvertently set a precedent. The company had stood strong against the bully, and showed that there was little price to pay for the choice. A large swath of S&P 500 companies soon calculated that it was better to stand in solidarity with the protests, rather than wait for their employees to angrily pressure them to act.

A cycle of noncooperation was set in motion. Local governments were the next layer of the elite to buck Trump’s commands. After the president insisted that governors “dominate” the streets on his behalf, they roundly refused to escalate their response. Indeed, New York and Virginia rebuffed a federal request to send National Guard troops to Washington, D.C. Even the suburb of Arlington, Virginia, pulled its police that had been loaned to control the crowd in Lafayette Square.

As each group of elites refused Trump, it became harder for the next to comply in good conscience. In Sharp’s taxonomy, the autocrat’s grasp on power depends entirely on the allegiance of the armed forces. When the armed forces withhold cooperation, the dictator is finished. Of course, the U.S. is far more democratic than the regimes Sharp studied and doesn’t fit his taxonomy neatly. But on Wednesday, the president’s very own secretary of defense explicitly rejected Trump’s threat to deploy active-duty military officers to American streets. It’s among the most striking instances of an official bucking a president in recent decades.

The examples of Serbia, Ukraine, and Tunisia show how even the subservient unexpectedly break from a leader once that leader is doomed to illegitimacy. And to an extent, the cycle of abandonment has already begun. Jim Mattis’s excoriation of his old boss prodded Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly and Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska to echo his condemnation of the president. As each defector wins praise for moral courage, it incentivizes the next batch of defectors.

Even if the protests fizzle-- and the parade of denunciations comes to an end-- it’s worth pausing to marvel at the moment. Despite the divisions of the country, a majority of its people joined together in shared abhorrence of the president, at least for an instant. Sectors of society that studiously avoid politics broke with their reticence. In a dark era, when it seemed beyond the moral capacities of the nation, it mustered the will to disobey.

And what about Trump's henchmen in Congress, who have legitimized his regime and give it the patina of legitimacy? The anti-Trump wave is getting stronger by the day. Yesterday, George W. Bush, Colin Powell and Mitt Romney all said they would not support Trump's reelection and would not vote for him. Will other senators join Murkowski and Romney? What about Susan Collins (R-ME)? Cory Gardner (R-CO) is a lost cause. So are Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Martha McSally (R-AZ), Thom Tillis (R-NC), David Perdue (R-GA), #LadyG (R-SC), Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Steve Daines (R-MT). They've all worked to look like they're connected to Trump at the hip. That will come back to bite each of them in November-- as well as Mitch McConnell (R-KY). And now... the exciting new Lincoln Project add that was just released. 

Cockfighting Romanian Royalty In Oregon

The Pretenders; the royal cockfighter is on the left

Today everyone in Europe is complaining about the influx of Romanians into their countries. Since Romania joined the EU, there are no borders to keep them out and because there are a lot of poor Romanians, they are drawn to the wealthier countries like Germany, Britain, Holland, Italy, France. Europeans talk about them the way they used to talk about Moroccans and Algerians and the way Republican xenophobes and racists like Steve King and Dana Rohrabacher talk about Mexicans. Everything from "they're primitive and carry diseases" to "they're stealing our jobs" and "committing all the crimes."

Here in the U.S., I don't see much of a Romanian problem, although the food was so rich at Sammy's on Chrystie Street in the Lower East Side that I was sick. Ever see a restaurant that serves a bowl of schmaltz on the table like ketchup or mustard? A few days ago, however, I read about King Michael I of Romania-- or, more precisely, about the third of his and Queen Anne's 6 daughters, Princess Irina.

Her parents had been forced to abdicate-- for the second time-- before she was born (in Switzerland) in 1953. Her father had a bright future when he was born in Foișor Castle, grandson of King Ferdinand of Romania and Princess Elena of Greece. When his father, Carol II, eloped with his mistress, Michael became heir apparent and when King Ferdinand died in 1927, he was crowned king at the age of 6. His father came back 3 years later and became king. 10 years later, in 1940, the Romanian fascist leader and notorious anti-semite, Prime Minister Ion Anontescu staged a coup, claiming Carol II was anti-German, and declared the 18 year old Michael king again. Michael was just a figurehead for the fascist regime but he did get chummy with Hitler and Mussolini. In the summer of 1944 King Michael, deftly reading the handwriting on the wall, staged his own coup, had Antonescu arrested on August 23, 1944 (happy 69th anniversary!) and turned over to the Russians who then gave the Romanian communists the honor of trying and executing him.

The following year King Michael, ever the puppet, was forced to appoint a pro-Soviet Communist government, with which he constantly quarreled. In 1947 he was forced at gunpoint to abdicate and the monarchy was abolished the same day and Mike was exiled (with lots of gold, rubies and valuable art). He moved to London and then Switzerland where he became a commercial pilot. In 1976 he sold two of the El Greco paintings he had stolen when he left.

He tried coming back to Romania at the end of 1990 but was deported immediately. After the Communists were overthrown he was allowed to visit and in 1997 he was given a couple of the old royal palaces and now lives part time in Romania and part time in Switzerland. He and Anne attended the baptism of Princess Irina's daughter in Portland, Oregon in 1987. At the time, she and her first husband, John Kreuger, a Swede, were raising horses near the southern Oregon coast. The Swede and Irina were divorced in 2003 and she married John Wesley Walker, a Coos County deputy sheriff, on November 10, 2007 at the Heart of Reno Chapel in Reno. She and the former deputy sheriff were arrested last Thursday as federal agents swept through eastern Oregon and southcentral Washington to upend a suspected cockfighting ring. They are accused of having staged at least 10 cockfighting derbies at their ranch near Irrigon between April 1, 2012, and last May 19.

Thee royal mug shot

The accused cockfight hosts, with a supporting cast of 16 other suspects in Oregon and at least 10 in Washington, were charged in a conspiracy to violate the federal Animal Welfare Act.

The indictment alleges that the derbies featured dozens of cockfights in a ring, much like a fight card in a night of boxing. But the combatants were roosters, each with knives, gaffs or other cutting instruments attached to their legs, fighting to their deaths in a blood sport now outlawed in all 50 states.

"Besides being a barbaric practice, cockfighting jeopardizes public health and safety and facilitates the commission of other criminal acts," said U.S. Attorney Amanda Marshall, Oregon's top federal prosecutor. The "fairly large-scale cockfighting venture" also supported illegal gambling, she said.

A referee supervised the fights as concessionaires sold beer and food, and those managing the action took a 10 percent "house" cut, prosecutors allege.

John and Irina Walker-- along with Irrigon neighbors David Sanchez, 29, and Aurelia Garcia Mendoza, 33, and Hermiston friends Mario "El Cuba" Perez, 62, and Jose Luis Virgen Ramirez, 48-- were charged with operating an illegal gambling business and unlawful animal fighting ventures at the Walkers' Morrow County ranch.

Each of the charges carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine.

...Top purses in the earlier cockfighting case sometimes reached into the tens of thousands of dollars, authorities said.

The government alleges that the Walkers' horse ranch, on a flat patch of irrigation circles about two miles south of Irrigon, is subject to federal forfeiture because it was used in a criminal enterprise. The ranch's dwellings were valued at $170,360 in 2011, according to public records.

John Walker, 67, served as a sergeant in the Myrtle Point Police Department before going to work on Aug. 1, 1998, with the Coos County Sheriff's Office. He left that job in June 30, 2003, according to the county's Department of Human Resources. It's unclear what kind of work Walker might have performed in the last 10 years.

Walker in 2007 married the former Irina Kreuger, the middle of five daughters born to King Michael I and Queen Anne of Romania. A published account says the Walkers married in the Heart of Reno Chapel, in Reno, Nev.

Princess Irina, 60, is fifth in line to the throne, following her older sisters, Margareta and Elena, and Elena's two children, Nicholas and Elisabeta Karina. She was born and raised in Switzerland and moved to Oregon in 1983.

Irina Walker has never been a visible member of the royal family, which owns four castles in Romania. She has visited the European nation only a handful of times, said historian Filip-Lucian Iorga. Her biography is largely unknown to the Romanian public, he said. The royal family is popular, but largely uninvolved in local politics.

So, should all "royals" who refuse to wholeheartedly renounce their pretensions meet the same fate as Louis XVI? Yeah, of course. They never give up hope of taking over again and subjugating "their" people and stealing all the wealth for themselves. And cockfighting.

A Worldwide Contraction Featuring Concerts In Romania And A Republican Drive To Sell GM To China

There's always concerts like this...

This morning I woke up to the news that consumer prices had dropped. In fact they dropped more than any time in 61 years, due mostly to how gas prices, which had driven them up so drastically this year, have fallen back. NY Times: "The Labor Department reports that consumer prices fell by 1 percent last month, the biggest one-month decline on records that go back to February 1947." A few days we talked about how the cost of drastically over-priced tickets are coming down as well, both for concerts and sporting events. No demand, lots of supply.

This morning I spoke with my old friend Cristian, one of the top concert promoters in Romania. He's trying to bring one of the bands I used to work with to play the 22,000 seat Cotroceni Stadium in Bucharest. The band commands one million dollars for a show. His budget also includes the cost of the venue ($37,800), the production and technical costs (around $35,000) and the promotion and marketing (around $6,500). The audience for this band ranges from 15 to 35 years old and unemployment is a problem. "A lot of people get the money for the tickets from their parents," he told me. The tickets in Romania go for $30, which means he will bring in $660,000 if he sells out. The band are huge and they've never played in Romania. He is certain they will sell out easily (hence the minimal marketing and promotion budget). But that still leaves a deficit of $420,000!

The gap is normally made up by a sponsor or a group of sponsors. Last year Vodaphone paid around a million dollars to sponsor the Rolling Stones concert there. Other sponsors of concerts include Coca Cola, Volkswagen, Mercedes, beer companies... big international brands. This year market uncertainty is putting a major crimp on marketing budgets. This year Cristian has done successful concerts with Placebo, Muse, Massive Attack and other bands and this was his biggest year and the Romanian concert industry's biggest year. But he's not sure if they'll be seeing growth for 2009 even though Depeche Mode and AC/DC have already announced concerts there.

There seems to be a global contraction in the economy and it goes way beyond concert tickets. This morning vulture capitalist Mitt Romney pushed GOP talking points in an OpEd in the NY Times urging Congress to let the entire U.S. automative industry go bankrupt. Romney was once a top executive in one of the worst predator investment firms to ever stalk American Business, Bain Capital. They would buy up distressed firms for pennies on the dollar, fire the employees, slash budgets, sell off assets, suck whatever life was left in the company and leave a smoldering ruin. Emptywheel has summed Romney's proposal up very well, Let the retirees starve. The bane of Bain-- and of all elitist swine like Romney-- has always been organized labor and the aspirations of "common people" to live like millions. How can the Romney's and people like them have hundreds of millions if so many pesky workers are clamoring for sustainable livings?

This morning Thomas Frank writes in the Wall Street Journal that ex-Home Depot CEO Bernie Marcus, another Romney type cancer on society, was moaning that "This is the demise of civilization," this being working men and women wanting to get a fair share of the benefits of their labor. And Bernie knows just what the elite must do about it.

"If a retailer has not gotten involved with this, if he has not spent money on this election, if he has not sent money to Norm Coleman and these other guys," Mr. Marcus said, apparently referring to Republican senators facing tough re-election fights, then those retailers "should be shot; should be thrown out of their goddamn jobs."

Frank asks us to consider a quote from union-busting reactionary piece of shit Lee Scott (CEO of social criminals WalMart): "We like driving the car and we're not going to give the steering wheel to anybody but us." Yes, they do-- and they've driven the automakers into a ditch and driven our economy into a ditch and driven the lives of millions of Americans over the cliff. They're lucky that a moderate like Obama was elected president and not a leftist who would begin the repairs to America by eliminating the cause.

GOP plans also call for the continued selling off of America to other countries. The General Motors and Chrysler Romney and the Republicans in Congress are clamoring to put into bankruptcy are targets for China. Look at the Japanese anti-union car manufacturers in Alabama-- anti-GM fanatic Richard Shelby's impoverished, backward, Republican-leaning feudal state. That's the model and that's why traitors to this country, like Romney and Shelby and Kyl and McConnell (China's man on the ground), want to drive the auto companies out of business.