Going Forward... What's The Democratic Party Going To Be?

No one knows what's going to happen, but it would be a safe bet that Americans aren't going to have a chance to vote for a real progressive for president in a very long time, probably longer than I'll be a sentient being. Or maybe not. Maybe Biden and the Democrats will screw up so badly that the Democrats lose Congress in 2022 and then the Democrat in the White House in 2024-- whether Biden or Kamala-- loses to a Republican who also screws up. So 2028... I may still be walking around and sentient. My grandmother was at that age.

But... I still feel cheated. I so wanted one damned good great president in my life. Instead they've all be mediocre at best and, more frequently, piles of stinking, rotting garbage. I wanted to see Bernie win so badly. It wasn't in the cards-- the Democratic establishment made certain of that.

Yesterday, Washington Post reporters Robert Costa and Sean Sullivan wrote about an interview they did with Bernie on Sunday. They predicted that Bernie's DNC speech last night "will effectively close an improbable odyssey-- two bids for the White House that together formed the backbone of a new, insurgent liberal movement." Thanks in great part to Bernie, Medicare-for-all, free college tuition, the Green Anew Deal and a chastening of the nation’s financial elite have all come to the fore of a grassroots Democratic Party-- and have pulled even a horribly corrupt status quo establishment slightly to the left and, perhaps put the breaks on a corrosive drift toward more-centrist views that have been been dominant since the Clinton DLC wing of the party managed to take over and change the focus from working class to managerial and donor class.

They quoted Bernie: "Ideas that we raised in health care, in education, in the minimum wage, in climate change, in criminal justice were ideas five years ago that people perceived to be radical and extreme. Today they are mainstream, and today they are actually being implemented by states and communities around the country."

They saw the slot allotted by Biden to AOC as a kind of passing of the torch. That's OK but there's more to it than that. I think I saw just about every Velvet Underground live performance in New York. They were my favorite live band when they were first getting going. There are many claimants to this but I think Michael Stipe first said, "not that many people ever bought that first Velvets album, but everyone who did started a band." And thank God they did. And not that many people saw that first Ramones national tour-- but it was Howie Klein (not the thieves who stole it as their own) who compared them Johnny Appleseed and noted that everyone around the country who went to see them started their own punk band.

AOC isn't the only political heir of Bernie's but one who even Biden was unable to deny at least 60 seconds of speaking time during his convention. But think of all the people Bernie has inspired who are now serving or will soon be serving at every level of government and who are committed to the somewhat revolutionary approach he imbued in a whole generation of Democrats.

When David Feldman introduces me on his radio show every week, he says something to the effect of Blue America supporting progressive and socialist candidates. I often remind him that this cycle, there was just one actual socialist candidate-- Shaniyat Chowdhury, who ran for a southeast Queens district held by loathsome and corrupt party boss Gregory Meeks, a New Dem. Shan, a first time candidate, didn't win, although close to a quarter of the voters backed him in the primary. "We’re only getting started," he told me this morning. "This was just the beta as a first time candidate. Change makers persist. I’ve continued to organize post election around housing rights, anti-poverty, and foreign policy. Sometimes I forget how young I am and how young our collective movement is with Bernie Sanders. Which speaks to the level of despair of what working people are going through. We are tired of waiting for change to happen election cycle or establishment democrats telling us it’s not our moment. I wake every morning thinking Trump or not, will everyone have free healthcare? Are we ending universal poverty and unjust wars? Are Black lives going to matter beyond symbolic gestures? The answer is clear. For that, I’m not going away anytime soon. Whether it’s this election or the next, we must continue to change the tides in the sea towards a more prosperous future. I will run for Congress again because I believe it is there where we can fight for humanity throughout the world."

In 2016 then-Flagstaff city councilwoman Eva Putzova was a Bernie delegate to the convention. This cycle she ran for Congress against a reactionary Blue Dog incumbent who spent most of his political career as a Republican and still votes as a mainstream Republican. Although the full face of the establishment opposed her. Yesterday, her district's election results were finally certified by Arizona's Secretary of State and she ended the race with 41.4% of the vote, winning in the most populous county and doing exceptionally well in the southern part of the district despite DCCC and the Arizona Demmocratic Party tilting the scales in favor of the incumbent. "We ran," she told me today, "a spirited, principled campaign that showed the district is winnable by a progressive candidate. If things fall in place, it's not out of the question that I'd run for the seat again. We have learned a great deal, built an impressive infrastructure, and we wouldn't be starting from scratch." That's how progressives win-- two cycles. It took that long for Alan Grayson and it took that long for Ro Khanna and Donna Edwards, each primarying their own party's establishment choice.

One of the people I met while Hector Oseguera was running for Congress told me during the convention broadcast last night the "for the past month, Hector has focused on the future of the progressive movement. Although we've witnessed incredible strides since Bernie's first presidential run, Hector often says 'we still have such a long way to go.' Policies like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal have not yet been realized. We are in the middle of a generational shift, and Hector is taking a central role in directing that shift across North Jersey. Bernie's presidential runs paved the way for a new generation of leaders, but that door sits merely ajar. It is now up to the Millenials to throw that door open and lead our nation into a new progressive era. It is often said that the true measure of a person is how they respond in times of adversity. Given the response I've seen from Hector in the past month, I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw his hat into the ring again." Yep... I get the same feeling!

Kim Williams ran for the strongly Democratic Central Valley seat held by worthless Blue Dog Jim Costa, who Biden will likely appoint to his dream job next year-- ambassador to Portugal. Kim told us she entered her race this year because she "wanted progressive policies to become part of the conversation in a poor, rural district that needed it. Throughout my campaign, we said things out loud that others would not, and I am extraordinarily proud of what we accomplished. We started a district-wide conversation and we knocked on 20,000 doors to promote a policy platform that resonated with actual people and not the local party elite. Our efforts proved that there was demand for Medicare for All and a Green New Deal while helping Bernie, and other progressives, win primaries in the district. And our work continues. I will not run again this cycle and I won’t need to. My focus today is on tearing down barriers for progressives and combating the incredible corruption embedded into every layer of our political system. CA-16 will see another candidate carry the progressive banner forward, and I am delighted by the base of support that is rallying behind her. My friend, Yenifer Gallegos-Mejia, is jumping in as the only candidate with the backbone to stand for progressive ideals and against Fresno’s duplicitous political class. She will not only build upon early momentum and carry us over the finish line, she will inspire an emerging generation of activists that will build a more equitable America. She is the future, and I will stand behind her and every other progressive running in the district."

"Sanders-style left-wing populism," wrote Costa and Sullivan, "is gaining power throughout Europe and the Americas, at times replacing an older guard of liberals who embraced globalization. Across Western democracies, campaigns rooted in passionate emotion and grievance have won mass followings. 'I’m very proud. I am very proud of the movement that we have built,' Sanders said. 'The younger generation is overwhelmingly progressive, and they want to see their government function in a different way than in the past.' Sanders pointed to Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), two allies who recently won congressional primaries, as evidence of a healthy and competitive left flank inside the Democratic Party."

In the eyes of his core backers, Sanders came agonizingly close to seizing control of the Democratic Party with his strong showings in the initial contests of the 2016 and 2020 campaigns. There were days when they thought he would be unstoppable.

But it didn’t pan out four years ago, as Hillary Clinton scooped up victories and support from superdelegates-- and as Sanders grew furious with the Democratic National Committee. Nor did it work out earlier this year when former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg muddied Sanders’s plans for a clean-cut victory in the Iowa caucuses and a politically hobbled Biden suddenly revived his campaign in South Carolina, in part because of alarm in corners of the party about a Sanders nomination.

Sanders and his supporters are trying to learn from his success during the 2020 primary campaign in courting young voters in Iowa and Latino voters in Nevada-- and from his stumbles, particularly with Black voters who rallied around Biden in March.

Exit polls showed that the struggles Sanders experienced among Black voters four years ago against Clinton largely continued. Sanders’s fervent push to broaden the electorate with new voters was never realized.

Sanders’s supporters argue that campaigns come and go but that ideas move glacially. And history has precedent for movement campaigns having a long-term impact. In 1964, conservative Barry Goldwater lost the presidential election in a landslide. But his campaign laid the ideological groundwork for his supporter Ronald Reagan to win the White House 16 years later.

If the United States eventually moves toward democratic socialism in the coming years, Sanders will deserve significant credit for mounting campaigns that pulled the Democrats to the left, said Abdul El-Sayed, a Michigan-based liberal organizer.

“He didn’t only take on the establishment but the governing consensus in America that markets are the answer,” El-Sayed said. “He drove the conversation that we are all having. He lost two elections, but he won the future in the sense that the party is now a lot browner, blacker and younger and sounds like Bernie Sanders.”

Faiz Shakir, who served as Sanders’s campaign manager in 2020, said the defeats were not rejections of the senator’s ideas but a product of a “party in transition.”

“There is no question the kinetic energy and dynamism in the Democratic Party is with progressives. But the party is in transition,” generationally and politically, Shakir said, “and you’re going to have fits and starts.”

...Biden, who once fashioned his candidacy as a vessel to restore political norms and bolster institutions, has started sketching out a more transformational-style presidency that would seek to marshal a sweeping response to the coronavirus pandemic, a severe economic crisis and racial upheaval.

“What we’re seeing is more than lip service,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), who served as a national co-chair on the Sanders campaign. “The Biden team has been very intentional about listening to not just Bernie Sanders but a lot of his key policy advisers.”

Some Sanders activists have refused to join with the senator in offering the former vice president their unequivocal support, underscoring the importance of Sanders’s pitch for unity on the convention’s opening night.

In a column for the socialist magazine Jacobin, former Sanders adviser David Sirota mocked the task-force rollout as “an SNL skit.”

“They are a mix of party dinosaurs, corporate zombies and some terrific progressive voices,” Sirota wrote of the group members.

Over the weekend, Tlaib said she voted against the Democrats’ platform and cast her delegate ballot for Sanders, expressing outrage about her party’s refusal to upend what she called a “for-profit system that is leaving people to suffer and die just because they cannot afford health care.”

The Sanders political operation has labored to keep things calm, asking some supporters he picked to represent him at the convention to sign agreements barring attacks on other candidates or party leaders, combative confrontations on social media or talking to reporters without approval.

The move, which carried a threat of being removed as a delegate, has the effect of blunting one of the most powerful if divisive tools of the Sanders support network-- its unrestrained online presence and tendency to stoke controversy through social media, which has at times spiraled into abuse of his opponents.

...“It’s not about looking back,” [Bernie] said. “It’s about looking forward.”

Rachel Ventura is on the Will County board and primaries a garden variety Illinois New Dem this cycle. Yesterday she told me that "Bernie is right, it’s about looking forward. Currently, the corporate Democrats continue to ignore the people, whether it’s the call of free college, Medicare for all, the green new deal, or even legalizing marijuana. The hope and change we are looking for does not rest in the present, but in the future. We need to take control of our own future and run our own candidates. We need more bartenders, teachers, community activists, nurses and blue-collar workers taking the reins of power from the elitists who currently govern for the wealthy few. We see candidates like Marie Newman and Cori Bush win on their second time running. How many progressive candidates who ran this year will run again in 2022? I know I’m leaning that way and with an army of supporters already pressuring me to run coupled with national organizations biting at the bit to endorse our campaign again, there’s definitely a compelling argument to run. While taking home 42% of the vote after being outspent 17 to 1 is impressive, it isn’t a win. The win will come from continuing to champion the people’s voice."

Rachel continued: "Today and every day until the 2022 election, we need every person to drown out the false media voice and demand better representation, Medicare for All, and The Green New Deal. We need people to have political conversations with their friends and neighbors about how both democrats and republicans have failed the people in a time of COVID and economic uncertainty but pulled no punches to protect their corporate donors. It isn’t enough to call for our politicians to be anti-corrupt; we must throw them out and elect people who will truly represent common sense solutions. Our government, via the politicians, for too long have told us what we deserve and don’t deserve but it is ‘we the people’ that need to tell them what it is we need and demand. Now is not the time of polite negotiations, now is the time for impatience and bold action. Regardless of who wins the Presidential Election, the people must rise up and demand better policies. We cannot allow them to control the messaging, whether at the pulpit or on the news stations. That fight continues from everything Bernie has fought for, from the things MLK fought for, even all the way back to Henry Wallace. Our fight won’t be over in 2020 and it certainly won’t be over in 2022. But it is the time to stop pulling punches. To stop the DNC or RNC from gaslighting us. We all, collectively need to call them out. I’m excited for the future and have already begun collaborative talks with the 2020 congressional candidates like Eva Putzova, Morgan Harper, Melanie D’Arrigo, Robert Emmons, and so many more. Join us in the continued fight!"

Dorothy Reik is widely considered one of California's most visionary progressive leaders is the president of the Progressive Democrats of the Santa Monica Mountains and an elected member of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party Central Committee-- elected by the largest majority of anyone else in the county-- and is a member of the California Democratic Party Executive Board. This morning, she told me that "Looking forward without looking back is how we got where we are today. We cannot really move forward until we understand how we got where we are right now and until we conquer the forces that led us here, from corporate greed to racism and everything in between. As I write this at least 850 delegates have refused to support the platform because it does not include Medicare for All. What evil brought us to the point where we confuse 'insurance' with 'care'? Yes, Bernie has moved us forward in many ways but we cannot progress further until we admit to who we are and where we have been.

The GOP Has An Official Beverage Now: Corona Beer

Early in February, I wrote about why I had decided to cancel a trip to the beautiful Dordogne region of France. Yesterday, French President Emmanuel Macron locked down the country "for 15 days" (it will likely me much longer). Even the Islamic State has issued a travel ban now! Yesterday, Bob Costa reported for the Washington Post that GOP nut case Devin Nunes said on Fox that "it’s a great time to just go out, go to a local restaurant." Many Trump enablers and allies see the coronavirus as hyped up bullshit "being created to destabilize the country and destroy" Trump, in the words of crackpot Bernard Kerik. Costa wrote that "Inside the Republican Party and the conservative movement that Trump commands, there is now a deep divide as the nation confronts the coronavirus. For weeks, many on the right, including Trump, minimized the virus, if they considered it at all. Even in recent days, as much of the world shuts down to try to stop its spread, some Republicans mocked what they saw as a media-generated frenzy. Their reaction reflected how the American right has evolved under Trump, moving from a bloc of small-government advocates to a grievance coalition highly skeptical of government, science, the news and federal warnings."

Although several states are moving slowly, glacially-- even grudgingly-- towards lockdown, Trump is way too much of a political coward to do any such thing nationally. His states-- Arkansas, West Virginia, Mississippi, Idaho, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky, Wyoming, the Dakotas-- aren't concerned yet. People in Trump-Country are still clinging to his original stance, namely that the pandemic is a "hoax" cooked up by Trump's political enemies to deprive him of a second term. These aren't all states that were part of the Confederacy. Several of them are way up near Canada, likely the reason Canadad shut down its borders with the U.S. this week. Amtrak trains that normally operate from New York and Seattle into Canada ceased service as of yesterday. At least the Kentucky Derby was smart enough to move the event from the first Saturday in May to September 5-- far more realistic than the announcements of places (like schools, museums, concert venues, etc) closing for weeks or a month or two.

Last week I was fascinated to see a couple of morons in my local supermarket lugging 3 cases of Corona beer through the checkout. Did you know that Corona beer sales are up 5%? I wonder if it's only among Republicans.

Americans not drinking Corona beer because of the coronavirus made headlines recently. It was fodder for talk-show hosts about the collective American intellect (or lack of). Constellation Brands, the company that markets Corona beer in the U.S., shot back immediately, pointing out Corona beer sales rose 5% over the four-week period ending February 16.

Americans, it seems, aren’t as dumb as the Twitterverse made us seem. But the episode still raises the question: If 38% of Americans say they wouldn’t buy Corona beer “under any circumstances,” how are sales up 5% in the U.S.?

...The survey made three claims. First, “38% of Americans wouldn’t buy Corona under any circumstances now.” Next, “Among those who said they usually drink Corona, only 4% said they would stop drinking Corona, but 14% said they wouldn’t order Corona in a public venue.” Finally, “16% of beer-drinking Americans were confused about whether Corona beer is related to the coronavirus.”

But for Republicans flaunting Corona beer seems to have become "a thing." Seattle Times reporter Jim Brunner wrote over the weekend that right-wing lunatic Tim Eyman, a candidate for governor of Washington, "spent Saturday rooting for a political rally of 250+ people to 'stick our finger in the eye of Jay Inslee.' In an email blast to supporters, Eyman flouted public health restrictions and advice on slowing the spread of coronavirus, saying '251 is the # of patriots I hope will join me @ Oak Harbor today. I’m bringing a 6-pack of Corona!'" Only "around 60" pathetic death-cult Republicans showed up.

Eyman said he wanted to provoke a debate about government authority in a time of crisis. “I am very concerned that during situations like this or 9/11 or other fear-intensive events that the government infringes on basic constitutional rights without sufficient questioning,” he said in a text message, adding the media was failing to adequately challenge such restrictions.

Eyman, aside from refusing to obey directives about social distancing (i.e., spreading the plague), was recently found guilty of concealing nearly $800,000 in political contributions and of stealing a chair from an Office Depot. He may not have gotten the message yet, by Trump-- and Fox-- have suddenly decided to switch the COVID-19 storyline. Trump realizes that calling it a "hoax" is politically detrimental. Looky:

Short version: a new poll by Marist shows that only 34% of independent voters believe what Trump has to say about the pandemic. That could be fatal for his reelection chances. (Even 21% of self-described Republicans say they can't trust what he says about COVID-19.) Only 45% of registered voters say Trump is handling the coronavirus outbreak well-- a number that big because 85% of Republicans say so, as opposed to just 40% of independent voters. Which demographics think Trump is fucking up worst?

• Democrats- 83%
• non-whites- 61%
• White women college grads- 60%
• College graduates- 58%
• white college grads- 56%
• 18-38 year olds- 55%

And so far only hundreds of Americans have died from it. Soon it will be thousands and tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands and... maybe more. And that will include people in Trump states and Trump counties who are flaunting social distancing recommendations... and having Corona beer parties.

Yesterday, AP reported on the Trumpist about-face on COVID-19, noting that instead of raving about a hoax, he sounded downright somber and is now warning about "pain to come," calling on the country to come together and deferring "to the nation’s public health experts while at least momentarily putting aside petty squabbling." A lunatic like Eyman may be protesting Governor Inslee's half-assed decree than no more than 250 people gather, but on Monday Trump said no more than 10!

After weeks of trying to play down the risk posed by the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump struck a new, more urgent tone on Monday as he delivered a sobering message to Americans grappling with a new reality that will dramatically alter their lives for months to come.

Gone-- at least for now-- were Trump’s “do as I say, not as I do” handshakes that had continued even after health experts admonished people to avoid contact and practice social distancing. Also gone was the rosy talk aimed, in part, at propping up reeling financial markets.

The shift was informed in part by a growing realization within the West Wing that the coronavirus crisis is an existential threat to Trump’s presidency, endangering his reelection and his legacy. Trump has told advisers that he now believes the virus will be a significant general election issue and he took note of the clear-eyed, somber tone used by his likely general election foe, Joe Biden, in Sunday’s Democratic debate.

With reports from Italy growing grimmer, U.S. cases surging and America’s economy in shock, Trump has also received a series of alarming briefings in recent days that have included dire projections about how many Americans could be infected if drastic action isn’t taken.

He also has watched the dramatic escalation of precautions within the White House complex, where officials are now screening everyone who enters the building after Trump unknowingly interacted with at least three people who have since tested positive for the virus. Already, both his press secretary, Stephanie Grisham, and his outgoing acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, are isolating themselves at home after coming into direct or indirect contact with those who have COVID-19.

...For all of that, though, Trump was still Trump. He said he would award himself a 10-out-of-10 rating. And on Twitter, he was still needling a longtime political foe, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has called for a more assertive federal response.

As recently as Saturday, Trump had said, despite all evidence to the contrary, that the country had “tremendous control” of the virus, even as cases soared, local governments were shutting down schools, and doctors were warning of an impending health catastrophe. He reframed that comment Monday, saying that he’d been referring to his government’s handling of the crisis and not the virus itself.

“It’s not under control for any place in the world,” he acknowledged.

Trump for weeks had taken his upbeat cues from a network of outside advisers who told him the media and Democrats were hyping the threat. But he has also heard from allies who have urged him to bolster his response and change his tone, including some Republicans on Capitol Hill who feared they had been personally exposed to the virus.

Jared Kushner, the president’s influential son-in-law and senior adviser, who has recently taken a more active role in the administration’s response, has privately compared the virus to a “war” that could imperil the nation’s economy and population, according to two White House officials and Republicans close to the West Wing who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss private conversations. The pandemic’s impact could rival that of World War II, he has said, requiring a national effort.

...Trump had hoped the markets would rise again Monday after the Federal Reserve’s announcement the previous day that it would slash interest rates, and he was rattled when they collapsed instead. Hoping to turn the tide, he told aides he wanted to speak at Monday’s 3:30 p.m. press briefing-- the same late afternoon time slot as Friday’s Rose Garden news conference.

But this time, instead of a spike in the market, the Dow Jones continued to plummet as he spoke, dipped even further after the president admitted, for the first time, that the nation may be heading for a recession.

While Trump’s changes in tones are often fleeting, White House officials and allies saw Monday’s more measured approach as evidence the president was coming to grips with the magnitude of the challenges ahead for the nation and his presidency.

Americans-- many struggling to work from home while juggling childcare, or facing job losses-- needed to hear directly from their commander in chief exactly what they are in for, said Trump’s former communication strategist Jason Miller.

“It’s important for people to hear from him, especially the message that we are going to get through this together,” Miller said.

Still, few expected Trump’s more measured approach to last or to erase past missteps.

Said Princeton presidential historian Julian Zelizer: “I’m not sure a change in tone makes up for a kind of complete lack of leadership that the country has seen in the first few weeks of this crisis.”

Trump Going To The Mattresses? Are They All Stained And Disgusting?

Yesterday, two of the Washington Post's star political reporters, Robert Costa and Philip Rucker, wrote that Republican anxiety is spiking as Trump faces growing legal and political perils and asserted that "a growing number of Republicans fear that a battery of new revelations in the far-reaching Russia investigation has dramatically heightened the legal and political danger to Donald Trump’s presidency-- and threatens to consume the rest of the party as well."

"Consume the rest of the party as well?!?!" So what exactly consumed Barbara Comstock (R-VA), Mimi Walters (R-CA), Bruce Polquin (R-ME), John Culberson (R-TX), Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Kevin Yoder (R-KS), Jeff Denham (R-CA), Jason Lewis (R-MN), Pete Sessions (R-TX), Carlos Curbelo (R-FL), Dave Valadao (R-CA), Mike Bishop (R-MI), Mia Love (R-UT), John Faso (R-NY), David Young (R-IA), Dave Brat (R-VA), Erik Paulsen (R-MN), Karen Handel (R-GA), Steve Knight (R-CA), Mike Coffman (R-CO), Tom MacArthur (R-NJ), Pete Roskam (R-IL), Keith Rothfus (R-PA), Claudia Tenney (R-NY)... to name a few off the top of my head. There were good candidates like Katie Porter in California, Andy Kim in New Jersey and Jared Golden in Maine and there were abysmal candidates like Abigail Spanberger (Blue Dog-VA), Jason Crow (New Dem-CO) and Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY). There were deep red districts and blue districts. They all had only one thing in common; all the defeated Republicans were Trump enablers, Trump rubber-stamps, some more than others, but all of them. And, believe me, incumbents like Fred Upton in Michigan who won with a scant 50.2%, Michael McCaul in Texas who took just 50.9%, Rob Woodall in Georgia with just 50.1%, Rodney Davis in Illinois with a mere 50.5%, Steve King in Iowa (50.4%), Will Hurd in Texas (49.2%) and dozens more who won by the skin of their teeth, will be shaking in their boots as 2020 approaches.

Trump's dysfunctional and destructive regime always seems to be spinning out of control. There's never been such a rate of staff turnover in a White House before... nor so many indictments. Meanwhile, the Idiot-in-Chief "remains headstrong in his belief that he can outsmart adversaries and weather any threats, according to advisers. In the Russia probe, he continues to roar denials, dubiously proclaiming that the latest allegations of wrongdoing by his former associates 'totally clear' him." They don't-- quite the contrary-- and Republicans whose jobs are on the line, realize it-- and are frustrated that there's nothing they can do about it-- not a thing. If they play along with Trump they die in November. If they break with him, they die earlier, in the primaries. As Costa and Rucker put it, "anxiety is spiking among Republican allies, who complain that Trump and the White House have no real plan for dealing with the Russia crisis while confronting a host of other troubles at home and abroad." They deserve what's headed their way-- and more.

Facing the dawn of his third year in office and his bid for re-election, Trump is stepping into a political hailstorm. Democrats are preparing to seize control of the House in January with subpoena power to investigate corruption. Global markets are reeling from his trade war. The United States is isolated from its traditional partners. The investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller into Russian interference is intensifying. And court filings Friday in a separate federal case implicated Trump in a felony.

The White House is adopting what one official termed a “shrugged shoulders” strategy for the Mueller findings, calculating that most GOP base voters will believe whatever the president tells them to believe.

But some allies fret that the president’s coalition could crack apart under the growing pressure. Stephen Bannon, the former Trump strategist who helped him navigate the most arduous phase of his 2016 campaign, predicted 2019 would be a year of “siege warfare” and cast the president’s inner circle as naively optimistic and unsophisticated.



“The Democrats are going to weaponize the Mueller report and the president needs a team that can go to the mattresses,” Bannon said. “The president can’t trust the GOP to be there when it counts... They don’t feel any sense of duty or responsibility to stand with Trump.”

This portrait of the Trump White House at a precarious juncture is based on interviews with 14 administration officials, presidential confidants and allies, some of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss private exchanges.

Rather than building a war room to manage the intersecting crises as past administration’s have done, the Trump White House is understaffed, stuck in a bunker mentality and largely resigned to a plan to wing it. Political and communications operatives are mostly taking their cues from the president and letting him drive the message with his spontaneous broadsides.



“A war room? You serious?” one former White House official said when asked about internal preparations. “They’ve never had one, will never have one. They don’t know how to do one.”

Trump’s decision to change his chief of staff, however, appears to be a recognition that he needs a strong political team in place for the remainder of his first term. The leading candidate for the job is Nick Ayers, Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff and an experienced campaign operative known for his political acumen and deep network in the party.

Throughout the 18-month special counsel investigation, Trump has single-handedly spun his own deceptive reality, seeking to sully the reputations of Mueller’s operation and federal law enforcement in an attempt to preemptively discredit their eventual conclusions.

The president has been telling friends that he believes the special counsel is flailing and has found nothing meaningful. “It’s all games and trying to connect dots that don’t really make sense,” one friend said in describing Trump’s view of Mueller’s progress. “Trump is angry, but he’s not really worried.”

But Mueller’s latest court filings offer new evidence of Russian efforts to forge a political alliance with Trump before he became president and detail the extent to which his former aides are cooperating with prosecutors.

Some GOP senators were particularly shaken by last week’s revelation that former national security adviser Michael Flynn had met with Mueller’s team 19 separate times-- a distressing signal to them that the probe may be more serious than they had been led to assume, according to senior Republican officials.

Even in the friendliest quarters, there are fresh hints of trouble. Fox News Channel host Tucker Carlson, a reliable prime-time booster of the president, faulted Trump in an interview last week for failing to keep his main campaign promises, understand the legislative process and learn how to govern effectively.

For now, Republicans on Capitol Hill are still inclined to stand by Trump and give the president the benefit of the doubt. But one pro-Trump senator said privately that a breaking point would be if Mueller documents conspiracy with Russians.

“Then they’ve lost me,” said the senator, noting that several Republican lawmakers have been willing to publicly break with Trump when they believe it is in their interests-- as many did over Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s role in the brutal murder and dismemberment of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), an outspoken Trump critic and a frequent subject of his ire, said, “The president’s situation is fraught with mounting peril, and that’s apparent to everyone who’s paying any attention, which is all of my Republican colleagues.”

This tweet went over particularly badly, even for Trumpanzee, a notorious draft-dodger  who avoided the Vietnam War and any kind of military service, claiming his war was the constant battle he had with gonorrhea and genital warts in the '60s and '70s

Another possible breaking point could come if Trump pardons his former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, who has elicited the president’s sympathy as he sits in solitary confinement in a Virginia prison following the collapse of his plea agreement with Mueller’s team, White House aides and Republican lawmakers said. Trump advisers said they understand that a pardon of Manafort could be difficult to defend and could prompt rebukes from Republican allies.

The special counsel on Friday accused Manafort of telling “multiple discernible lies” during interviews with prosecutors. Manafort was convicted of tax and bank fraud crimes and has pleaded guilty to additional charges as well, including conspiring to defraud the United States by hiding years of income and failing to disclose lobbying work for a pro-Russian political party and politician in Ukraine.

Trump’s legal team, meanwhile, is bracing not only for new Mueller developments, but also for an onslaught of congressional requests. New White House counsel Pat Cipollone and his associate, Emmet Flood, are the leaders inside, although both have taken pains to stay out of the spotlight.

Cipollone has been scouring the resumes of congressional Republican staffers with experience handling investigations and trying to recruit them to the White House, officials said. Meanwhile, Flood, who advised former president Bill Clinton during his impeachment, has been prepping for months to forcefully exert executive privilege once House Democrats assume the majority.

Yet hiring remains difficult as potential staffers worry about whether they will need to hire a personal lawyer if they join and express uncertainty about the constant turmoil within the White House hierarchy, as illustrated by Kelly’s announced departure Saturday.

Bannon said he and others were urging contacts in the White House to enlist David Bossie, Trump’s former deputy campaign manager and a former congressional investigator who was known for his hard-edge tactics.

Trump’s lead outside attorney, Rudy Giuliani, said he and his team are busy writing a defiant “counter report” to Mueller, which the president boasted this week was 87 pages long. Giuliani described the effort as a collaboration in which he, Jay Sekulow, Jane Raskin and other lawyers draft different sections and then trade them among the group, debating how to frame various passages on the president’s conduct and Russian interference.

“We’re writing out a lot and will pick and choose what to include. We’re trying to think through every possibility,” Giuliani said. “I’m sure we’ll take the lead in defending [Trump] publicly, if he needs defense, like we always do.”

The Butcher's Assistant by Nancy Ohanian

Some of Trump’s allies have been encouraging him to bolster his legal team. One confidant recalled telling the president, “You need to get you an army of lawyers who know what the hell they’re doing.”

So far, Trump’s public relations strategy mostly has been to attack Mueller as opposed to countering the facts of his investigation. But Lanny Davis, a former Clinton lawyer, said that approach has limits.

“No matter what your client says, if you’re not ready with factual messages to rebut charges, you’ll fail,” said Davis, who now advises former Trump attorney Michael Cohen, who faces possible prison time for crimes including lying to Congress about his Russia contacts. “Even if you think the Trump strategy of attacking the messenger can continue to work, it will not work once the Mueller report is done.”

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich said Clinton’s experience in 1998, when the embattled president questioned the special prosecutor and warned of GOP overreach, is instructive for Trump and Republicans, showing them how to be both combative and confident amid chaos.

“You can’t have that many smart lawyers, with the full power of the government, and not have something bad come out,” Gingrich said of the special counsel’s team. “Mueller has to find something, like Trump jaywalked 11 times. The media will go crazy for three days, screaming, ‘Oh, my God! Oh, my God!'”

But, Gingrich said, “This isn’t a crisis moment for Trump or the party. Remember, we thought we had Clinton on the ropes, but Clinton kept smiling and his popularity went up.”

The White House is looking to its hard-right supporters on Capitol Hill to serve as its political flank, in particular House Republicans such as Mark Meadows of North Carolina, Jim Jordan of Ohio, and Devin Nunes of California, who are frequent guests on Fox News Channel. In January, Jordan and Nunes will be the top-ranking Republicans on the House Oversight Committee and the House Select Committee on Intelligence respectively, positioning them as public faces of the Trump defense and antagonists of the Justice Department’s leadership.

Republicans close to incoming House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said there is an implicit understanding that Jordan and Meadows and others in their orbit will be most vocal, but many rank-and-file Republicans, looking to hold onto their seats, will attempt to avoid becoming swept up in the standoff over the probe, as they have for over a year.

“Among most House Republicans, the feeling is, ‘We’re ready for this to be over with. We’re not nervous, but we’re having Mueller fatigue,’” Meadows said.

But Democrats say they are determined not to let the investigation end prematurely. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), who sits on the intelligence committee as well as the House Judiciary Committee, said, “Our job is to protect the investigation from the president-- whether it’s firing Mueller, intimidating witnesses or obstructing the investigation.”

Trump critics, like retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ)-- who has sponsored legislation that would protect Mueller but has been largely ignored by his colleagues-- warned that the drumbeat of Trump loyalists in Congress, along with the president’s relentless clashes with Mueller, have lulled Republicans into a dangerous place.

“It’s like the party is a frog slowly boiling in water, being conditioned to not be worried, to not think too hard about what’s happening around them,” Flake said. “They feel at a loss about what to do because it’s the president’s party, without any doubt. So, there’s a lot of whistling by the graveyard these days.”

Giuliani dismissed Flake’s criticism in much the same way he and the president have taken on Mueller-- with a barbed character attack rather than a measured rebuttal.

“He’s a bitter, bitter man,” Giuliani said of Flake. “It’s sick. Nobody likes him and they would like him gone.”

Something tells me that far, far more people would like Trump gone.

John Kelly by Nancy Ohanian

The DC Dems Should Learn That Working Class Voters Are Not Eager To Re-Embrace Status Quo Candidates

I find Robert Costa's reporting for the Washington Post worthwhile; and his contributions on MSNBC are better than most. He's a 31 year old reporter who comes from a rock background in the Philly suburbs. Only thing... his background wasn't just rock. It was also conservative. When I first noticed him he was the relatively sane writer at the right-wing National Review. He never seemed to be a right-wing hack, not even at the National Review. But if someone wanted me to take a bet on Costa's partisan affiliation, I'd I'd insist on very favorable odds before I'd agree to wager.

This morning I woke up to find the tweet storm above about Bernie's Medicare for All proposal and how it may help define electoral politics over the next few years. Over the last months, I've been asserting that Bernie would have won by pointing to the counties and districts that Trump won went for Bernie over Trump in the primaries. This wasn't about Bernie beating Hillary in counties in West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc... this was about counties where voters went to the polls and cast more votes for Bernie than for Trump, but then-- in the general-- looked at what Trump was offering and what Hillary was offering and decided it was Trump who was the lesser evil.

She was unquestionably the candidate of the status quo. What voters had to decide was whether the change Trump was promising was change for the better or change for the worse. People capable of a modicum of discernment and critical thought decided Trump was worse. Nearly three million more Americans saw Trump for what he was and voted for Hillary, whether holding their nose or with some kind of hope and enthusiasm.

The kind of counties I'm talking about are like rural and coal counties in West Virginia. Sure Bernie beat Hillary in every single one of them. And Trump beat Hillary in every single one of them, but that isn't what I'm looking at. On primary day counties like Boone gave Bernie 2,410 votes and Trump 1,388 votes (second place Dem was Hillary with 1,244 votes and second place Republican was Cruz with 97 votes). Calhoun Co. gave Bernie 803 votes and Trump 480 votes. Trump crushed Cruz in Clay County 568 (80.8%) to 68 (9.7%) but Bernie beat them both combined with 754 votes. These are rural West Virginia counties. Logan Co. saw Bernie with 3,201 votes and Trump with 1,665 votes. McDowell gave Bernie 1,453 to Trump's 760. Mingo went 2,425 for Bernie to 1,161 for Trump. These aren't college towns; they're coal towns. But even in urban Monongalia Co., the state's third-most populous, which includes Morgantown, Bernie beat Trump 8,096 to 5,971. Voters knew they wanted change and they sensed Bernie change would be better for them and their families than what Trump represented. Now let's look at key counties in the states that swung the electoral college to Trump-- where Trump beat Hillary but where Bernie had beaten Trump. We'll start in Wisconsin where the state's 10 electoral votes went to Trump because he beat Hillary 1,405,284 to 1,382,536 a margin of 22,748 votes. What we're not looking at here are counties where Bernie beat Hillary but where Hillary them went on to beat Trump. A good example would be Dane County, where Hillary kicked Trump's ass, 217,506 (71.4%) to 71,270 (23.4%). A case could be made that Bernie would have done even better. Why? This is how primary day looked in Dane County:

• Bernie- 102,585
• Hillary- 61,072
• Cruz- 26,320
• Trump- 20,884
• Kasich- 20,055

Throw in another 1,500 votes for the other Republicans still in the race (Rubio, Carson, Paul, Bush, etc) and all the Republicans together wound up with around 70,000 votes, far less than just Bernie alone. But we're not looking at counties like Dane, just the ones where Trump beat Hillary but which would have likely gone to Bernie in the general. Here are a dozen that would have put Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes in Bernie's column:

• Columbia Co.- Bernie- 6,455; Trump- 4,413
• Dunn Co.- Bernie- 4,272; Trump- 3,074
• Grant Co.- Bernie- 4,484; Trump- 3,462
• Kenosha Co.- Bernie-14,612; Trump- 11,139
• Outagamie Co.- Bernie- 16,985; Trump- 13,848
• Pierce Co.- Bernie- 3,199; Trump- 2,822
• Racine Co.- Bernie- 14,651; Trump- 11,756
• Rock Co.- Bernie- 17,337; Trump- 10,264
• Sheboygan Co.- Bernie- 8,537; Trump- 6,532
• Vernon Co.- Bernie- 3,476; Trump- 2,437
• Walworth Co.- Bernie- 8,405; Trump- 7,534
• Winnebago Co.- Bernie- 17,818; Trump- 13,293

Now let's skip around the country and look at 20 key counties in various states that meet the same criteria we saw in Wisconsin-- where Bernie beat Hillary and Trump in the primaries but where Trump then went on to win in the general (primary states only, not caucus states)

• Hillsborough Co, NH- Bernie- 38,646; Trump- 28,981
• Rockingham Co, NH- Bernie- 31,080; Trump- 28,716
• Grand Traverse., MI- Bernie- 8,091; Trump- 5,891
• Kent Co., MI- Bernie- 43,375; Trump- 22,742
• Wood Co, OH- Bernie- 7,165; Trump- 6,911
• Madison Co., IL- Bernie- 18,723; Trump- 15,588
• Winnebago Co., IL- Bernie- 16,715; Trump- 13,421
• Tulsa Co., OK- Bernie- 26,525; Trump- 23,900
• Broome Co., NY- Bernie- 9,175; Trump- 8,409
• Columbia Co, OR- Bernie- 4,221; Trump- 3,418
• Greene Co, MO- Bernie- 17,403; Trump- 16,649
• Jackson Co., NC- Bernie- 3,021; Trump- 1,624

Those counties are all blue color counties that rejected Hillary for Trump after voting for Bernie. The DC Dems refuse to try to understand how that could happen and refuse to try to make sure that kind of nightmare doesn't happen again. Just look at the crap from the bottom of the sewer-- Sinema and Rosen-- Schumer has recruited to run for the Arizona and Nevada Senate seats! Could not be worse! And the DCCC is doing their best to recruit the worst barnful of candidates in their illustrious history. What I'm writing about here are working families for whom the status quo is completely dysfunctional and who were looking for a candidate to change that. Hillary, for many was so out of the question that they preferred to take a chance an utterly unqualified sociopath like Trump. Many may be sorry now and that should reverberate in the midterms next year. If Pelosi and Schumer play their own status quo games-- to please the donors who, to be completely honest, are their top constituencies, voters will take it out on the Democrats in 2020. Read Costa's tweets up top again, carefully.

"This Is A Gangster Family"-- The FBI's Person Of Interest

The quote in the subject line was something reporter Michelle Goldberg said to Chris Hayes last night, about Prince Jared or, as we know him, Kushner-in-law. Her point was that the Kushners-- like the Trumps-- may be able to afford to clean up nicely but that they are nothing but vicious, merciless predators. And now the law is catching up with them (again). As more than one Twitter wag remarked this morning, "Gangsters don't hire family members because they're qualified. Gangsters hire family members because they're less likely to talk to the FBI." The FBI is looking into Kushner's Putin-Gate role. NBC first reported that Kushner is under scrutiny.

The FBI's scrutiny of Kushner places the bureau's sprawling counterintelligence and criminal investigation not only on the doorstep of the White House, but the Trump family circle. The Washington Post first reported last week that a senior White House official close to Trump was a "person of interest," but did not name the person. The term "person of interest" has no legal meaning.

The officials said Kushner is in a different category from former Trump aides Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn, who are formally considered subjects of the investigation. According to the Justice Department's U.S. Attorneys' Manual, "A 'subject' of an investigation is a person whose conduct is within the scope of the grand jury's investigation."

...Kushner met at least once in December with the Russian ambassador, Sergey Kislyak, and he also met last year with a Russian banker, Sergey Gorkov... Congressional aides have said they would like to question Kushner about that meeting, and Kushner has said he would voluntarily appear before the Senate intelligence committee as part of its Russia investigation.

Gorkov is chairman of VneshEconomBank, a Russian government-owned institution that has been under U.S. sanctions since July 2014. Gorkov studied at the training school for the FSB, one of Russia's intelligence services.

Sources on the fringe right say Bannon is taking a victory lap over the widely reported FBI news. We've been writing about Jared's fabulous adventure for over a year now, from the jailbird father to the visa-selling in China. But a must-read on this slimy crook came out this week at Slate by Jamelle Bouie, Nothing But Slumlords. "In a feature for ProPublica and the New York Times Magazine," wrote Bouie, "journalist Alec MacGillis shined light on the role of Jared Kushner-- son-in-law and close adviser to President Trump-- as a real estate developer and landlord. In 2011 and 2012, seeking a stable source of revenue, Kushner and his partners purchased thousands of units of working-class housing in the inner-ring suburbs of cities like Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Their largest holdings are in Baltimore County, Maryland, where they control 15 complexes that house up to 20,000 people in total. And in managing these properties, reports MacGillis, Kushner is a harsh and unforgiving landlord." A friend of mine, who was Kushner's tutor when he was in high school tells me Kushner isn't very bright and her son told me he's "a violent, spoiled asshole." No one could believe he got into Harvard-- until it came out that his father bought him a slot in the freshman class.

Kushner’s company is relentless in its pursuit of “virtually any unpaid rent or broken lease-- even in the numerous cases where the facts appear to be on the tenants’ side.” Residents are slapped with thousands of dollars in fees and penalties, even if they had previously won permission to terminate a lease. All of this is compounded by poor upkeep of facilities. MacGillis describes one family that has had to deal with mold, broken appliances, and physical damage to their unit-- even after paying the management company for repairs. In one complex, a resident “had a mouse infestation that was severe enough that her 12-year-old daughter recently found one in her bed.” In another, raw sewage flowed into the apartment.

Jared Kushner stepped down as chief executive of Kushner Companies upon taking his position in the White House, although he retains a $600 million stake in the business, which still holds and manages these properties. “They’re nothing but slumlords,” said one tenant to MacGillis. For someone whose company all but exploits the precariousness and desperation of people who have few other choices for decent housing, it is a fair charge.

...Kushner... is working in an administration whose policies would make life more precarious for even more people. The priorities include a health care plan that would take insurance from tens of millions of people, a budget plan that would slash vital aid for up to one-fifth of all Americans, and a tax plan that would use those funds to lower rates for the wealthiest Americans. In turn, that precariousness opens new opportunities for those, like Kushner and Trump, who will not hesitate to exploit vulnerable people for profit.

The past eight years of Democratic government were far from perfect, but liberal policymakers were at least attuned to the reality of exploitation and the need for policies and protections to stop and punish the businesses that work to make life more difficult, and more expensive, for ordinary Americans. Like President Trump’s “university,” Jared Kushner’s history in the low-income housing market is a reminder: With this White House, we don’t just have an indifference to exploitation-- we have an administration of actual predatory capitalists eager to reshape the government in their image, for their interests.

Last night Politico ran a story by David Freedlander, Meet the Real Jared Kushner in which he reiterates that Kushner "in a White House sullied by ties to Russia and all sorts of unsavory characters from the fringe, Kushner was set to float above, surrounding himself with fellow figures from the elite worlds of Manhattan finance and real estate and deep-sixing the harder-edged ideas of the White House’s 'nationalist' wing... Because he is soft-spoken, slim and handsome, with degrees from Harvard and NYU and a family that donates to Democrats, he couldn’t possibly be the same guy knifing his West Wing rivals and urging the president to go to war with the Justice Department and the FBI."

Except that this isn’t quite how it has gone in the White House over the last several months. It was Kushner who reportedly pushed for the firing of FBI Director James Comey over the objections of Bannon. And it was Kushner who was the lone voice urging for a counterattack after Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein announced the appointment of a special prosecutor, according to the New York Times. And it is now Kushner whose family’s business activities leave him open to the same level of charges of conflict of interest that have dogged his wife and father-in-law, and Kushner who appears to be as closely tied to the Russian government as anyone serving in the White House: NBC News and the Washington Post reported Thursday that the FBI is taking a close look at his contacts with the Russians.

UPDATE: It's Friday So The News Is Coming Hot And Furious

The NY Times has their own new Putin-Gate blockbuster tonight-- just hours after the story about how Kushner proposed to the Russians that they set up a secret channel of communication using secure Russian facilities, something he carefiully hid from American intelligence. This one is about a Putin crony, Oleg Deripaska, who Manafort used to work for. He wants immunity to testify in front of Congress. Congress turned him down. Deripaska lives in Moscow and has been banned from traveling to the U.S. because of his connections to organized crime.

But he was able to enter the country in another way during that period, according to previously undisclosed court documents. Mr. Deripaska came to the United States eight times between 2011 and 2014 with government permission as a Russian diplomat, according to affidavits he gave in a little-noticed lawsuit in a Manhattan court. Mr. Deripaska said in the court papers that his visits were brief and made in connection with meetings of the G-20 and the United Nations, not to conduct business.

The court documents and public records show that Mr. Deripaska, whose companies have long had offices in New York, has expanded his American holdings over the past 10 years, buying high-priced Manhattan townhouses and a major stake in a Russian-language newspaper in New York.

The lawsuit was brought by Alexander Gliklad, a Russian-born businessman, who charged that Mr. Deripaska had used his diplomatic status as a cover to do business, which the oligarch denied. Mr. Gliklad claims he is entitled to collect funds that Mr. Deripaska had agreed to pay to settle a lawsuit with a man who owed Mr. Gliklad money from a court judgment. Last month, a New York State Supreme Court justice rejected Mr. Gliklad’s argument that the Manhattan court had jurisdiction over Mr. Deripaska.

As Mr. Manafort’s dealings with Russia-friendly Ukrainian politicians, business activities and loans have come under examination in recent months, his former client has gotten caught up in the media scrutiny. The two men were partners in an offshore fund set up in 2007 to buy telecommunications and cable television assets in Ukraine, where Mr. Manafort had advised then-President Viktor F. Yanukovych. That deal fell apart, winding up in litigation in the Cayman Islands.

In March, Mr. Deripaska took out newspaper ads stating that he was willing to participate in hearings before Congress after The Associated Press published a report alleging that Mr. Manafort had provided him with a plan in 2005 outlining steps to “greatly benefit the Putin government,” by influencing politics and news coverage in the United States. Mr. Deripaska has denied ever entering into such an arrangement and sued The A.P. for libel last month. The news organization has said it stands by its article. Mr. Manafort has denied that his work for the oligarch was aimed at aiding the Russian government.