Trump Is Losing Support

Responding to a question from a reporter Wednesday, Maryland's Republican Governor Larry Hogan said he doesn't plan to vote for Trump. The next day GOP Senator Mark Kirk said that Trump is "too bigoted and racist" for Illinois. Arizona Republican Senator Jeff Flake went on the radio in Phoenix and called Trump's comments after the Orlando tragedy "beyond the pale" and "disgusting." Ohio Gov. John Kasich sure sounds like he's not able to vote for Trump. I get the feeling an awful lot of Republican elites won't do it in the end, even if they're still too shy about saying so publicly.

Are they going to dutifully follow Trump down this twisted, rapidly descending path to the place where he promises there will be all kinds of winning and “everything is going to be fair” because there’s going to be “total justice”?

Or, like Kasich, are they going to say “enough is enough” and set off in search of higher ground?

...[T]here’s nothing funny about where we are right now. First Trump took credit for his own prescience before the bodies in Orlando could even be counted. Then he reiterated his call for a ban on Muslims entering the United States-- a proposal he had walked back because rivals and allies alike rejected it.

In the days since, he’s accused American Muslims of sheltering terrorists and has darkly vowed to keep a closer eye on their places of worship. He’s lied repeatedly about the national origin of the Orlando shooter, who was born in the same New York borough from which Trump himself hails.

He’s banned one of the nation’s premier newspapers, the Washington Post, from covering his campaign events, adding to his growing media enemies list.

...I don’t think Trump is a fascist-- I really don’t. Fascism requires a belief system. All Trump knows is how to read a room and exploit the most powerful emotion lurking in it.

But like a storefront psychic who happens upon a genuine spirit, Trump is now playing with powerful historical currents he really doesn’t seem to understand. I can’t shake from my mind a tweet I saw this week from Jared Yates Sexton, a correspondent for the New Republic, who mingled among the crowd of parents and their children at one of these raucous Trump rallies in North Carolina.

“Overheard: immigrants aren’t people, honey.”

I’m not one to get swept up in the grating hyperbole of our times, but there are moments in history when lines have to be drawn. There are moments by which succeeding generations will judge the moral clarity of leaders, no matter what else those leaders may have achieved in their lives and careers, no matter how rational their reasons for nuance.

History judges harshly the politicians who raised not a finger of objection when Franklin Roosevelt signed off on internment camps for Japanese-Americans. History scorns Joseph McCarthy’s cowering colleagues in the Senate, but it honors the memory of Sen. Millard Tydings, who lost his seat after opposing McCarthy, and the Army lawyer named Joseph Welch, who finally humiliated him.

Kasich is a guy who talks a lot about judgment-- although in his case it usually has more to do with pearly gates than future historians. When I asked him about Trump’s reaction to Orlando, he didn’t bother calibrating.

“Terrible,” he told me. “Terrible. It’s not the way you operate as a leader. Terrible. ‘I told you so’? What’s the magic of that? You know, who doesn’t know we are vulnerable to radical Islam? Everyone knows we are vulnerable to it.

“And then,” Kasich went on, “to somehow insinuate that the president of the United States accepts this or condones this, it’s just outrageous.”

As for American Muslims, Kasich told me: “When they know someone is going to do something to cause violence, they’re going to speak out about it. That’s what I believe.”

I wondered if Trump could win by talking this way.

“I don’t think he can get elected with this rhetoric, no,” Kasich said flatly.

But, once again this year, Kasich is an outlier in his party. More Republicans are thus far following the agonized examples of Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, who seem to be saying they are bound to support any Republican nominee with human DNA, no matter how many statements they have to cautiously disown.

...[E]vents of the last week have convinced me that history isn’t going their way. We may kindly remember a John Kasich or a Jeb Bush-- guys who had the sense of self-worth to stand up and say they wanted no part of this particular crusade.

The rest will answer for whatever comes of this mess, and depending on the consequences, they may answer to the ages.

And despite his opportunism and demagoguery over the terror attack against the LGBT community in Orlando, Trump's favorable ratings have continued to plummet. A Washington Post poll showed Trump with a startling 70% disapproval rating, The GOP is about to nominate a loose cannon who's viewed favorably by less than a third of Americans. He almost makes Hillary Clinton look popular! In fact, like Hogan, a full third of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump. By comparison-- even before the wounds have been worked on with the Bernie supporters-- only 17% of Democrats feel unfavorably towards Hillary.

The survey, conducted Friday through Monday, shows a high level of upheaval within the GOP as Trump trails Clinton by 12 percentage points in the horse race. Among self-described Republicans, 28 percent say they feel unfavorably about their party. Just 4 percent of Democrats say they feel that way.

“You typically see near-universal approval of the party by party members,” Selzer said. “As recently as December of 2014, just 9 percent of Republicans said they were unfavorable toward the Republican Party.”

Sixty percent of likely voters say nominating Trump next month at the party's national convention in Cleveland is bad for the Republican Party. Among likely Republican voters, 27 percent hold that view, while 69 percent say he'll prove good for the party.

...She's perceived as stronger on fighting for the middle class, having the right temperament, being ready to lead on day one in office, getting things done in Washington, being a good role model for children, and possessing the skills needed to conduct foreign policy.

Trump is viewed stronger at knowing what it takes to create jobs, reining in the power of Wall Street, changing the way Washington does business, and combating terrorist threats at home and abroad... She's also viewed as more trustworthy, 43 percent to 37 percent.

Interestingly enough, a brand new CBS News poll-- which shows Hillary beating Trump 43-37%-- most respondents feel Hillary is a better leader on terrorism and national security (50-43%).

Republican elected officials are starting to panic up and down the ticket. Thursday The Hill quoted former Bush press secretary Tony Fratto saying he thinks “the tailspin could be really bad-- historic proportions bad. I think it’ll be a historically bad loss. I’ve said that from the very beginning." Tepidly pro-Trump Tennessee Senator Bob Corker told reporters that that he had been "discouraged by the direction" of Trump’s campaign. "I did not think yesterday’s speech [the one on Monday where Trump came off as generally psychotic] was the type of speech one would give who wants to lead this country through difficult times."

And the Politico gang has been reporting all week on how Trump's problems with the GOP establishment isn't just not healing, it's getting worse. They're claiming that "his campaign’s relationship with the Republican National Committee is increasingly plagued by distrust, power struggles and strategic differences," that Trump has no interest in the RNC's advise and that he appears to be trying to take over the committee without any value-add whatsoever, especially the fundraising aspects. It's not hard to imagine why the RNC is uncomfortable turning that over to a blatant and celebrated crooked operator like Trump, is it?

Boehner Cracks The Whip On The Nuts And Kooks

16 Republican incumbents lost their seats to Democrats Tuesday-- Dan Lungren (CA), Brian Bilbray (CA), Mary Bono Mack (CA), Allen West (FL), David Rivera (R), Joe Walsh (IL), Robert Dold (IL), Judy Biggert (IL), Bobby Schilling (IL), Roscoe Bartlett (MD), Chip Cravaack (MN), Frank Guinta (NH), Charlie Bass (NH), Nan Hayworth (NY), Ann Marie Buerkle (NY), and Quico Canseco (TX) and Jeff Flake (AZ) was the only one of the 4 current Republican House members who gave up their seats to run for the Senate wasn't defeated. The losers: Denny Rehberg (MT), Rick Berg (ND), Todd Akin (MO) and Connie Mack IV (FL). According to NY Times reporters Jennifer Steinhauer and Jonathan Weisman, Boehner presided over a conference call Wednesday and told his dispirited caucus that "they had to avoid the nasty showdowns that marked so much of the last two years." The forced retirements of especially nasty and gratuitously truculent teabaggers like Allen West, Joe Walsh, Sandy Adams (a loony Florida teabagger who lost her primary), Todd Akin and Ann Marie Buerkle-- coupled with too-close-for-comfort wins by Michele Bachmann (MN- 50.6%), Mike Coffman (CO- 48.7%), Steve Southerland (FL- 52.7%), Daniel Webster (FL- 51.8%) and Dan Benishek (MI- 48.2%), Justin Amash (MI- 52.7%), Vern Buchanan (FL- 53.6%), Joe Heck (NV- 50.4%) and Michael Grimm (NY- 52.8%)-- will probably take some of the bombast and pigheadedness out of their demeanor. But Boehner's still got a hot, dysfunctional mess on his hands-- and an unchastened grassroots brainwashed by Hate Talk Radio and Fox that won't accept anything but a scorched earth policy from "their" congressmen.

Members on the call, subdued and dark, murmured words of support-- even a few who had been a thorn in the speaker’s side for much of this Congress.

It was a striking contrast to a similar call last year, when Mr. Boehner tried to persuade members to compromise with Democrats on a deal to extend a temporary cut in payroll taxes, only to have them loudly revolt.

With President Obama re-elected and Democrats cementing control of the Senate, Mr. Boehner will need to capitalize on the chastened faction of the House G.O.P. that wants to cut a deal to avert sudden tax increases and across-the-board spending cuts in January that could send the economy back into recession. After spending two years marooned between the will of his loud and fractious members and the Democratic Senate majority, the speaker is trying to assert control, and many members seem to be offering support.

“To have a voice at the bargaining table, John Boehner has to be strong,” said Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, one of the speaker’s lieutenants. “Most members were just taught a lesson that you’re not going to get everything that you want. It was that kind of election.”

Aides say this is an altered political landscape that Mr. Boehner did not expect. As a result, whether the nation can avoid the so-called fiscal cliff will depend not only on whether Mr. Boehner can find common cause with a newly re-elected, invigorated president, but also whether he can deliver his own caucus.

“I just believe John will have more leeway than in the past Congress,” said Representative Peter T. King, Republican of New York. “The election will matter.”

...Even so, some Republicans have issued a stern warning to Mr. Boehner that he cannot expect their votes if he makes a deal with Democrats before seeking their consent.

“What we’ve seen in the past is the speaker goes, negotiates with the president, and just before we vote, he tells us what the deal is and attempts to persuade us to vote for it,” said Representative John Fleming, Republican of Louisiana. “We’re just not very happy with deals being baked, then we’re asked to stay with the team and support the speaker.”

Given those conflicting demands, Mr. Boehner must decide whether he wants to seal his role as an essential player in a grand plan to restructure the nation’s fiscal condition, or continue the status quo of the very gridlock voters appear to detest... Any deal with the president would probably lose 60 to 80 Republican votes, but the president would bring along enough Democrats to get it passed.

“When the president and I have been able to come to an agreement, there has been no problem getting it passed here in the House,” Mr. Boehner assured reporters, alluding to the deal struck with Mr. Obama to extend payroll tax cuts, which took Democratic support.

On Wednesday’s conference call, their ranks slightly reduced by the election, House Republican leaders presented a united front, a departure from the backbiting of earlier showdowns, the leaders’ aides admit. After acknowledging that the election had not gone the way any of them had hoped, Mr. Boehner made an ardent plea for unity, saying they could expect a good deal out of the coming negotiations only if they stuck together.

The handful of Republican backbenchers who spoke up agreed, and those included often-rebellious conservatives like Representatives Phil Gingrey of Georgia and Virginia Foxx of North Carolina.

Before Mr. Boehner went in front of the cameras that afternoon with a carefully worded statement on the fiscal talks, aides say he checked in with another figure he will need on his side, Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the defeated vice-presidential nominee and the House Budget Committee chairman. He told Mr. Ryan what he was about to say and assured him he would be welcomed back as chairman, even though he needs a waiver to escape rules limiting chairmen’s terms.

Mr. Ryan then went hunting and left Mr. Boehner to deliver his message.

But even his vague comments last week about his openness to new revenues to resolve the fiscal impasse-- and about a desire to work on some sort of immigration reform legislation, in a blunt acknowledgment of his party’s weakness among Hispanic voters-- got immediate pushback from some members, including Mr. Fleming and Representative Steve King of Iowa.

Some House Republicans have latched on to their own re-elections to claim a dual mandate.

“The message from this election for me seems to be, ‘You guys keep going,’ ” said Representative James Lankford of Oklahoma. “The Senate was rewarded for inactivity, the House was rewarded for standing up for its principles and the president was rewarded for his. I was elected by my district to represent their values. I really don’t approach this and say, Now I’ve got to cave to what the Senate or president want.”

Mr. Obama has continued to press his point that he campaigned clearly on a call to allow taxes to rise on the rich. Otherwise, he has said, the poor and middle class would bear all the burden of deficit reduction.

Some Republican members appear ready to accede.

“The election was a wake-up call,” said one veteran Republican in the House. For many members, “everyone they knew hated Obama. Everyone they knew agreed exactly with them. And then we lost.”

But other Republicans see a different message.

“If you look at my own election as an example, what voters were saying is they like Obama but they don’t trust him on taxes, so they want a check and balance on things,” said Representative Tom Latham, Republican of Iowa, who convincingly beat a Democratic incumbent, Leonard L. Boswell. Mr. Obama carried Iowa.

Others representing staunchly conservative districts see no reason to give in, even if the nation as a whole sided with the president on taxes.

Ron Paul Offers His Hand To John McCain-- As A Fist Right Across The Jaw

Ron Paul is a Republican congressman from east Texas. If his constituents want to re-elect him in November, they'll find him on the GOP line under John McCain and John Cornyn. And for all his supporters' bluster about how independent Paul has been, his voting record screams "Bush rubber stamp." Forty-five Republicans-- including notorious rubber stamps like Heather Wilson (R-NM), Don Young (R-AK), Deborah Pryce (R-OH), both reactionary Diaz-Balart brothers (R-FL), Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE), Randy Kuhl (R-NY), Rick Renzi (R-AZ) and Frank Wolf (R-VA)-- have voted less in lockstep with Bush in the past 2 years than Paul.

Today, however, Congressman Paul is making a gigantic and very principled, brave stand against the rotten out innards of the Republican Party he once joined and still caucuses with.

With a range of third-party candidates at his side – including the Libertarian Party’s Bob Barr, independent candidate Ralph Nader, the Constitution Party’s Chuck Baldwin and the Green Party’s Cynthia McKinney – it’s unlikely that Paul will pick just one to support. But his spokesman said to expect “something of an endorsement,” with “a real effect on this fall’s election.”

We do know he'll be on the November ballot in Montana (on the Constitution Party line) in November. He could throw the state's 3 electoral votes to Obama, who is already polling well there. But that is hardly an announcement with "real effect" on the election that he's promising. According to scuttlebutt (and yesterday's Moonie Times) he's going to recommend that Americans vote for any of the third party candidates. Claiming to have an advance copy of his remarks, he's expected to say that "the strongest message can be sent by rejecting the two party system. This can be accomplished by voting for one of the non-establishment, principled candidates." Having met quite a few Paul supporters, my guess is that they'll do exactly what they're told.


UPDATE: RON PAUL RESISTS REPUBLICAN PRESSURE TO ENDORSE McCAIN

The McCain stooge slated to take over the Treasury in a McCain and/or Palin administration, Phil "Americans Are Whiners" Gramm, tried pressuring Ron Paul into endorsing the decrepit and malicious warmonger he vowed to never back. According to the McCain-biased A.P., Paul announced at a press conference this morning that Gramm had called him and said, "You need to endorse McCain." Paul, of course, refused.