WILL RON PAUL BE FORCED TO ENDORSE McCAIN?

McCain treats Ron Paul-- and his supporters-- like bad children

Ron Paul has an army-- a small army as armies go-- of dedicated advocates. They believe in a set of principles and they have a kind of culture, or at least a cult, of their own. And late last night their standard bearer sent them a message over the transom: time to face the reality that he's not going to be president, at least not this time around. He'll contest the rest of the primaries and cacuses-- on that they had insisted-- but he's cutting back his staff and starting to focus on retaining his Texas congressional seat, his Republican congressional seat. He's being challenged in a primary for that seat. Read: no third party run against McCain. But will he join the rest of the lemmings and march in lockstep with them over the cliff? And if he does, as is likely, will he bring his supporters with him. Many seem to favor Obama as their second choice.

Let me tell you my thoughts. With Romney gone, the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero. But that does not affect my determination to fight on, in every caucus and primary remaining, and at the convention for our ideas, with just as many delegates as I can get. But with so many primaries and caucuses now over, we do not now need so big a national campaign staff, and so I am making it leaner and tighter. Of course, I am committed to fighting for our ideas within the Republican party, so there will be no third party run. I do not denigrate third parties -- just the opposite, and I have long worked to remove the ballot-access restrictions on them. But I am a Republican, and I will remain a Republican.

I also have another priority. I have constituents in my home district that I must serve. I cannot and will not let them down. And I have another battle I must face here as well. If I were to lose the primary for my congressional seat, all our opponents would react with glee, and pretend it was a rejection of our ideas. I cannot and will not let that happen.

In the presidential race and the congressional race, I need your support, as always. And I have plans to continue fighting for our ideas in politics and education that I will share with you when I can, for I will need you at my side. In the meantime, onward and upward! The neocons, the warmongers, the socialists, the advocates of inflation will be hearing much from you and me.

Paul represents the libertarian strain in the GOP, a strain that is been largely ignored by the Big Government Insiders and power-mongers who have ruled the party in recent decades. In a report on the Minnesota GOP caucus last week in the new issue of Forbes they note that 16% of Minnesota Republicans voted for Paul and they estimate that this strain is around 6% of the Republican base nationally-- and that many of them would just as soon vote for a Democrat at this point if Paul loses the nomination fight that he just basically conceded.

Paul's East Texas congressional district, the 14th, is traditionally Democratic but in recent years solidly Republican. It's pretty backward socially and not the kind of place that turns out incumbents. Paul has no Democratic challenger but he does have a primary opponent. Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden, doesn't have much money to speak of-- Paul is loaded-- but he's making the point that Paul's GOP and evangelical credentials are suspect. Peden is best known for his anti-Hispanic ravings and his crusade to make English the official language of the U.S. He advertises himself as a 100% Bush loyalist and declared, "I think Islamo-Fascists terrorists were responsible for the 9/11 attacks,” a slam at Paul’s criticism of the Bush foreign policy. Here's the statement from the front page of Peden's website:

I am a proven conservative Republican; the incumbent is a self-described Libertarian. I support winning the Global War on Terror and the War on Drugs; the incumbent does not. I think Islamo-Fascist terrorists were responsible for the 9/11 attacks; the incumbent thinks America's Middle East policy's were responsible for the attacks. I support fully funding NASA's budget and the Vision for Space Exploration; the incumbent does not. I will support and vote for the Republican nominee for U.S. President in 2008, the incumbent will not (unless it's him.)

It is clear that I better represent the priorities and the values of the voters in the 14th congressional district.

Peden is gaining some traction by attacking Ron Paul's national supporters. The "people who live in District 14 actually deserve an elected representative who cares more about looking out for their interests in D.C. than trying to persuade a bunch of dope-smoking, Kucinich-loving college students in Seattle that America’s problems are the result of a flawed monetary policy controlled by a wealthy and secretive elite."

Paul may feel a great deal of pressure to back McCain. Many of his libertarian supporters say that will never happen.

Paul will never endorse McCain, because they agree on very little. However, McCain -- and the Republican Party establishment -- have made two very important mistakes that will eventually cost him (and the party) the presidential election. How so?

1. McCain has been extremely ugly towards Paul in debates, insulting him, mocking him, and taunting him -- for example, telling Paul during the ABC News debate, "We'll miss you tomorrow," a snide reference to Faux News' excluding the Texas congressman from its debate on the following day. In an earlier debate, McCain accused Paul of the type of "isolationism" that gave rise to Adolf Hitler and led to World War II. Paul has been treated shabbily by the putative "frontrunners" from the beginning, and this increases the likelihood that he will run as an independent presidential candidate.

2. Biting off its nose to spite its face, the Republican establishment has stupidly rallied around Chris Peden, a city councilman who is running against Paul in the Republican primary for Paul's congressional seat. If Peden wins (which is not expected at this point), the only reason remaining for Paul not to run as an independent is removed.

It goes without saying, of course, that Paul will not win the 2008 presidential election. But that's not why he would run. He would run to, paraphrasing the words of Faux News shill Frank Luntz's description of Paul's supporters, "give the middle finger" to the GOP. And he would be successful in doing so -- he has shown that he can peel off an average of five percent or more of Republican voters, as well as earn another one to two percent of independents.

If Paul receives 5-7 percent of the vote in the 2008 election, John McCain will not be the next president of the United States.