Only Bernie Sanders Can Keep Ohio From Trump Again

-by Tim Russo

Listen....oooh wah oooh

Some folks know I used to have a pretty good Dem rolodex. Thus, in summer 2016 I tried in vain to raise the alarm with the highest-up Democrats I could reach, for months, that Ohio was trending heavily Trump. As a leading indicator in presidential elections my entire lifetime, Ohio trending Trump meant the entire Midwest was trending Trump, too. The response was always the same, "Ha! Eat it Bernie Bro! So what. We don't need Ohio."

Now, Ohio is most definitely Trump country, just as it was Obama country the previous two presidential elections. Trump's ugly chaos is at least...change. Swing voters, but especially non-voters in Ohio, have wanted dramatic change, of any kind, since the crash of 2008 (remember that? Ohio sure does). Ohio knows the game is rigged, knows who rigged it, and as Democrats flail away at their Putin matroshka dolls denying the reality before their own eyes, it is folly to think an establishment Democrat, even any Democrat, will deliver the change Ohio has been demanding for a decade. Absent a non-Democrat (read, Bernie Sanders) seizing the Democratic Party in 2020 the way Jeremy Corbyn has seized Labour in the UK, Ohio will no doubt re-elect Trump, who even though he's con-man's con, at least fucks shit up good.

Do you want to know a secret? oooh wah oooh

For decades, the Ohio Democratic Party has zombie-walked in Clintonian Third Way pointlessness as if they think no one notices. Five days before the 2018 midterm, Ohio U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, cruising to re-election, reverted to his factory setting of knifing the left in the back once he knows his paycheck is secure. On Nov. 1, Brown reversed his own position on reimposing Glass Steagall and breaking up the banks, with the added flourish of doing so to CNBC. Cherry on top, Sherrod's Pulitzer prize winning wife no doubt immediately put her inside game spin into overdrive to keep her husband's total surrender to capital safely, deeply buried in an unread CNBC transcript. No headlines. No op-eds. No trending post at DailyKos. No pearl clutching MSNBC roundtables with Nicolle Wallace or Joy Ann Reid. Just fealty to Wall Street fundraising safely assured from the self-proclaimed guardian of Ohio's left. Off to Iowa!

If Brown's 2018 opponent Jim Rennaci had two brain cells to rub together, he'd have pummeled Sherrod to pieces on this about face in favor of keeping the game rigged. Alas, Sherrod Brown has been for 30 years the luckiest man in Ohio politics. Brown's re-election was assured when his 2012 opponent Josh Mandel dropped out suddenly in 2018, leaving a pointless millionaire TrumpBot Jim Rennaci to attempt to unseat, against a midterm headwind, what is one of the strongest last names in the history of Ohio politics. Sherrod Brown now preens like a peacock mulling over a 2020 presidential run, Wall Street's biggest fear now certain to be unspoken in Iowa or New Hampshire. Viva La Resistance!

Give Sherrod a break. He was only aping the top of his ticket, Rich Cordray, who ran hard right every day for months via millions spent on a TV ad starring a Republican cop in uniform declaring his undying love for Rich Cordray, just like all his Republican cop friends he tells us! In a year we were told the core of the Democratic Party base is black women, as Mike Dewine ran left on medicaid, Cordray's right wing cop love was sugary frosting on the base-turnout-depressing cake baked first by shoving two women out of his gubernatorial primary. #ThemToo

Meanwhile, in Ohio's largest Democratic county, Cuyahoga County Executive Armond Budish worked at nothing harder in 2017-2018 than assuring himself not only no primary, but no Republican opponent in the fall. Less turnout, hooray! This, Budish achieved, by bending over for every sports billionaire demand he could find from the day he took office in 2015. Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson backed up Budish, spitting in the face of 20,000 signatures demanding a referendum on Budish's 2017 giveaway to Cavs owner Dan Gilbert. Jackson literally refused to accept the boxes in which the piles and piles of signature forms were presented.

Before Cleveland Congresswoman Marcia Fudge floated her name for House Speaker after the 2018 midterm, Fudge was instrumental in the back room guarantees to renovate Gilbert's Quicken Loans Arena at taxpayer expense. This latest sports billionaire largesse relies heavily on playoff game revenue. Anyone think the Cavs will be in the playoffs anytime soon now that Lebron James is a Laker? Taxpayers are still on the hook, alas. Marcia Fudge gets a chair's gavel.

Do you promise not to tell?

Down ballot, Ohio Democrats for decades have been a musical chairs rigged game for the sole purpose of their own state pensions. Former Cleveland City Council President and serial groper Marty Sweeney cooked up a move from City Council to state rep. a few years ago. Then, for 2018, Sweeney made an attempt to shift his pension...oops I mean public service...to the state senate. Defeated in that 2018 primary by an identity politics goldmine, Nickie Antonio (female, plus gay-- jackpot), Sweeney still cashed in by slotting his own daughter into his old state rep. seat. She's now my state representative. No one knows a damn thing she stands for, or her father stands for, or any other elected Democrat in Ohio, stands for, except their pensions.

In OH-12's heavily watched 2-round special election this midterm, Danny O'Connor still blames the Green Party for losing his utterly predictable 50-50 race, twice. Instead of moving left to make a Green Party candidate irrelevant, O'Connor aped Cordray's only other "message"-- he's cool. You see, being "cool" is supposed to be a message to the Ohio Democratic Party, just like Ted Strickland's message was something about good ol' boys in 2010. Despite knowing full well a Green would be in his race, both times, moving a single nanometer leftward was total heresy to O'Connor. Better to have the Green Party to slag off, anyway.

Not to be outdone, Youngstown Congressman Tim Ryan mulls running for president on the "yoga vote." The Zen Congressman Ryan is the most reliable NRA stooge in the entire Ohio congressional delegation, just as Cordray has been statewide, just as Ted Strickland before him. It's only a matter of time before one of the AR-15's Tim Ryan has built his congressional record defending sprays a yoga studio with the blood of innocents. Ryan must meditate in downward dog praying to his Third Eye that such a predictable horror doesn't occur before the Iowa State Fair in August, 2019.

Did I mention the Ohio Democratic Party ran a guy for governor 4 years ago who drove without a license for 10 years? Former FBI man Ed FitzGerald, whose only worse gubernatorial predecessor was the catastrophic Rob Burch of 1994, has predictably failed upward into six figures at the corporate law firm of Walter & Haverfield, doing god knows what. Immediately after 2014's meltdown, every single Ohio Democratic Party apparatchik carbuncled themselves onto the 2015 marijuana monopoly attempt not just as staff, but as shareholders-- neoliberalism! In a cut and paste of Dan Gilbert's 2009 casino gambling cash grab, ODP's great and good constitutionally attempted to seize legalized marijuana profits for themselves. Ohio's young voters ain't nobody's fool, so they mobilized to crush it. Ohio Democrats ignored that 2015 lesson, too.

  ...Ohio remains a predictive swing state.

These are just some of the reasons you hear nothing in today's media about a "blue wave" in Ohio. Ohio didn't irrevocably "turn red," Ohio was abandoned by Ohio Democrats to, for the benefit of, the rigged game. In the March 2016 Ohio primary, Hillary Clinton benefited from nothing more than Trump being on the other ticket, thereby splitting the radical change vote between Bernie Sanders and Trump. Ohio Democrats even mounted a campaign during that primary to get Bernie-leaning Democrats to switch to the Republican primary to vote for John Kasich, in what is now clearly the first pathetic attempt of Ohio Democrats to "stop Trump." Kasich's Ohio primary "win" is largely due to those Democrats. Bet Kasich himself has no idea.

Nothing establishment Democrats do will stop Trump in Ohio in 2020, unless it is Bernie Sanders forcing them to do it. Bernie is popular in Ohio and nationally, with both voters and non-voters alike, precisely because he is NOT a Democrat, who Democrats screwed over. Just like themselves. Average folks identify with Bernie for this reason, so if Bernie seizes the Democratic nomination in spite of all that, non-voters will be inspired to return to voting, and Obama-Obama-Trump voters will have someplace to go once they realize Trump's con game was no different. Unless Bernie Sanders drags the Ohio Democratic Party by their hair kicking and screaming the way Blairites do now as Corbyn inevitably approaches 10 Downing Street, the Ohio Democratic Party will once again hand Trump four years of power, con game or not.

 

How Will History Judge Trump? How About As An Entertainer-- Which Is Exactly What He Is (Plus All The Horrible Stuff)

They may regret it, but I don't see any Republican candidates trying to distance themselves from Trump. Quite the contrary. In primary races across the country-- and at every level-- Republicans are arguing that they are the most Trump-like and that their opponent is a faux-Trumpist. There are even red-state Democrats from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party-- say Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin and Heidi Heitkamp-- who have gone out of their way to draw attention to the fact that they often vote for Trump's proposals and work well with him. But when it comes to Republicans... the whole primary in most districts is based on which candidate is deeper up Trump's ass. Even politicians who know how history will judge him and know what a danger he is to democracy and the country and who are well aware that every word that comes out of his mouth is a self-serving lie, are savvy enough to know what the Fox brain-washed GOP base wants-- Trump and his alternative reality-- and they know if they don't cater to that, they could wind up being the next Mark Sanford

Ohio Governor John Kasich isn't running for office this year and if he does run again in the future, it will be against Trump or at least against Trumpism. He was on Meet The Press yesterday (video clip up top). He was there to explain why the special election in his old district-- OH-12-- was not a good thing for the GOP, but I noticed something else he mentioned: "People just want the government to do its job, to improve the situation for them. Not to be, not to be on the front page and creating a chaotic environment all the time. They don't want that." Is that so? I think he was describing Democratic voters and independent voters, not most of the voters of his own party. They apparently crave cheap, gaudy entertainment-- exactly what Trump is and has always been. Trump may model himself after Mussolini, Hitler and Putin to some extent, but even more of a role model was P.T. Barnum. He's been compared to Barnum before-- and he's always said he takes it as a compliment.

Neither Phineas Taylor Barnum nor Señor Trumpanzee coined the phrase "there's a sucker born every minute," but both men have lived their lives as though they did. Barnum plagued American for most of the 19th Century, a hustler and grifter who Trump has always admired. He was a businessman/showman, author and politician. He freely admitted that his actions were meant to "put money in my own coffers" and, more than anything else he considered himself "a showman by profession." His name is synonymous with hoaxes and self-serving "philanthropy." Like Trump, he made some spectacularly bad investments and went bankrupt. And like Trump, he ran for office, as a Republican. He served 2 terms in the Connecticut state legislature and one term as mayor of Bridgeport.

When Kasich told Chuck Todd and the Meet The Press audience that he wasn't "making the case" against Trumpanzee but just trying to return the party to its roots, he was being somewhat disingenuous. The problems he has with the GOP are, after all, all Trump's policies. "The Republican Party has never been for protectionism. The Republican Party doesn't support a notion that families shouldn't be held together. The Republican Party never supported the notion that we should ring up debt... The Republican Party has never believed that we should walk away from our allies who have helped us keep the peace since World War II. These positions are... they don't even resemble the Republican Party. They do now... and the Republican base and GOP candidates around the country are fully embracing them-- like automatons.

Kasich's point about OH-12-- which is so close it has even been officially called yet-- was that Balderson should have been able to walk away with the win without breaking a sweat and that, nationally, Republicans ought to be worried, not celebratory.

"It wasn't a good night because this is a district that you should be winning by, you know, overwhelming numbers," he told Todd. "The last guy won by, I don’t know, 17 points. So, what you had is, I think, a message from the voters to the Republicans that you've got to stop the chaos and you've got to get more in tune and stop alienating people and try to figure out, how do families do better." Too late-- at least for the midterms.

Let me go back to the idea of politics on 24-hour news channels and on social media being all about entertainment. Look at the Meet the Press interview again. Was that entertaining? Not really. Kasich is pretty dull and Chuck Todd isn't much better. Nor is either trying to be entertaining. They're trying to be serious and deliver some kind of an interpretation of self-serving news. Trump supporters are stupid and ignorant-- drug addled and generally with incredibly low IQs and lower attention spans-- and they want that excitement and red meat and "owning the Dems" that Trump gives them. When he's finally gone from the scene-- losing in 2020 or impeached before that or whatever--  will they be able to calm down and go back to the status quo ante? Or has Trump set a tone that his successors will have to take into account from now on? Obama, more than most of his predecessors, actually was fairly entertaining, but in a relatively high brow way. Now we're talking about really low brow crap... like The Apprentice. Will that be Trump's ultimate contribution to America? This morning, John Kasich responded to one of his childish and delusional tweets:

Yesterday's Elections-- The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

There was no primary or special election in North Carolina yesterday and the Democratic candidate, Dan McCready, is a Blue Dog who will be voting frequently with the GOP when he gets into Congress-- Blue Dogs always do. But with the existential danger of Trump hanging over us, with have to hold our noses and hope congressional candidates like McCready win. And in this case, we probably don't have to hope too hard, because he's very likely to win. His opponent, far right crackpot Mark Harris (R) keeps saying women must submit to their husbands. I'm sure there are some people who will love that message. But not enough to win in a district that includes lots of well-off suburbs of both Charlotte and Fayetteville. He also keep denouncing homosexually as "evil." Harris is from another time and another North Carolina.

One more thing before I get to yesterday's results. 43% of Republicans-- not 43% of voters, just members of the Trump Party-- think Trump should be able top shut down media outlets he doesn't agree with. I guess, as a people, as a nation, we need to shut down the GOP.

First contest to be decided was the Ohio special election to replace Pat Tiberi in a very gerrymandered, very Republican district, OH-12 (PVI is R+7 and Trump beat Hillary there 53.2% to 41.9%). These were the early votes before any election day precincts came in. Encouraging, huh:

No one thought that was going to hold for long once yesterday's votes started coming in, especially votes from Licking, Muskingum, Morrow and Richland counties. Once over 70% of the votes were counted, it became a see-saw race depending whether red precincts or blue precincts were being counted. In the end, Balderson won with 101,574 votes (50.2%) to O'Connor's 99,820 (49.3%), so 1,754 votes separating them. It doesn't look to me that even if provisional votes go for the Democrats (in 10 days) it will be enough to turn the race around. Balderson and O'Connell will meet again in November where Balderson is unlikely to have $6 million in independent expenditures on his behalf.

Once votes started rolling in in KS-04, James Thompson started building a landslide victory over Laura Lombard. He's the Wichita progressive who ran an extraordinarily good campaign, highlighted by Bernie and Alexandria doing a massive get-out-the-vote rally with him in Wichita. He beat Laura Lombard 65.3% to 34.7%. And he'll need help to beat Trump enabler Ron Estes in November. You can help him here.

In the other important Kansas race (the 3rd district), the ultimate identity politics candidate, Sharice Davids, edged progressive Brent Welder in a 6-person race-- 22,891 (37.3%) to 20,803 (33.9%). She's likely to make a good member of Congress though. In the gubernatorial race, the Democrats got their strongest candidate, state Senator Laura Kelly with a landslide. On the Republican side, two far right Republicans faced off against each other, appointed incumbent Jeff Colyer and neo-fascist, Trump-endorsed Kris Kobach. This is probably headed for a recount. Kobach pulled ahead this morning by 0.1%-- 126,257 (40.6%) to 126,066 (40.5%). Now that's close!

In the Michigan gubernatorial contest, the Republicans picked the far right candidate, Bill Schuette and the Democrats went with the status quo candidate, Gretchen Whitmer over progressive champion Abdul El-Sayed. The fake Democrat Shri Thanedar, who seemed to be in the race solely to draw off votes from El-Sayed, played the role of spoiler.

The hot Democratic congressional races were in MI-06, MI-09, MI-11 and MI-13 (special and general). I was very nervous that in the 6th, the slimy Republican lobbyist masquerading as a Democrat (George Franklin) would slip in with the two progressives, Matt Longjohn and David Benac splitting the progressive vote. It didn't happen that way. Longjohn is a brilliant physician and in November he'll offer Fred Upton his strongest battle ever. He beat Franklin 22,077 (37.1%) to 17,222 (28.9%). In the 9th district, Andy Levin beat the more progressive Ellen Lipton 52.5% to 42.4%. Haley Stevens will be the candidate in MI-11 to face Republican Lena Epstein. There were 5 canddiates from each party and 88,715 Democrats voted, while 84,961 Republicans voted; good indicator for November. And in the Michigan district we were watching most closely, the open 13th, Rashida Tlaib won the 6-person contest for November, although appears to have lost the special election to Brenda Jones. Having Rashida in Congress starting in January will be a huge boon to the progressive movement.

Washington state has a jungle primary system, like California's, where all candidates run on the same ballot, regardless of party. The good news is that all the strongest Democratic candidates emerged in the 3 Republican-held vulnerable districts. In WA-03 Carolyn Long will be the candidate against Jaime Herrera Beutler. Just a few votes separate Lisa Brown (D) from GOP incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) and they will face off in November in a race that will be one of the biggest deals of the cycle. And in the wide open 8th district, where incumbent Dave Reichert is retiring, the two top candidates are wing nut Dino Rossi and Democrat Kim Schrier, although 32% of the precincts were yet to report this morning. It looks like there were far more votes for the 4 Democratic candidates than for the 3 Republican candidates, a good sign for November. It still isn't clear if New Dem Adam Smith will face Republican Doug Basler or progressive Democrat Sarah Smith in November.

Eye On The Ball This Week: 2 Special Elections, 5 State Primaries

As you know, Blue America raises money for progressives running for office, primarily for the House, but also for the Senate, for a handful of worthy incumbents, for governors, for state legislators who look like they will have careers beyond the state level, and, in one, case, for presidents. Oh, yeah... and for progressives who have won their primaries and have been subsequently abandoned by the DCCC. Keyword: progressives. However, this cycle, there is a special circumstance: the existential threat to our democracy, our country, our world posed by Trump. So this cycle while sticking to our rule of raising money just for progressives, we're also rooting for all candidates with a "D" next to his or her name running against a Trump enabler. Actually, there are 2 exceptions, where even holding our collective nose and closing our eyes won't work: Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL)... but that's a separate story.

The point is: we need Democrats-- even imperfect (and very imperfect) Democrats-- to put a check on Trump. In primaries though, like the ones coming up this week in Michigan, Kansas, Hawaii, Washington and Missouri, its all progressive all the way. In the OH-12 special election, a conservative Democrat, Danny O'Connor, is pitted against a very conservative Republican backed by Trump. To our friends in northern Columbus and it's suburbs and in Dublin, Worthington, Westerville, Pataskala, Mansfield, Bellville, Etna, Newark, and Zanesville... on Tuesday vote for "Danny Boy," as the orange orangutan called O'Connor on Saturday night in Lewis Center. Whatever else it is, it's a vote that will help hold Trump accountable and help keep him from pushing the U.S. in an ever more fascist direction. That overrides everything else. As Trumpanzee said: "Get your friends, get your neighbors, and get your family." Here's the kleptocratic ape's brilliant and inciteful political critique of the OH-12 election Tuesday:

The PVI is R+7. Trump beat Hillary 53.2% to 41.9%. Obama only took 43.9% in 2012 and 44.8% in 2008. It's a solid red, solidly gerrymandered, district. If O'Connor wins tomorrow-- and support for him is surging as of this morning-- the NRCC will be begging Trump to stay out of non-Southern states from now until November 7. And this special election is all about Trump-- which is exactly what he wants, what he always wants. In fact, yesterday, on ABC's This Week John Kasich said the hapless GOP candidate told him that he didn't invite Trump to Saturday's Delaware County rally. Kasich said the Trump appearance may lose the race for Balderson because of "the chaos that seems to surround Donald Trump has unnerved a lot of people... Suburban women in particular here are the ones that are really turned off, it's really kind of shocking because this should be just a slam dunk and it's not."

Last week, DCCC West Coast regional vice chair Ted Lieu tried to lure Trump into doing some of his crazy rallies in California. "I would pay the permit fees for Donald Trump to come to California and do one of his toxic rallies," he told us. "Can't wait for him to explain how the GOP tax scam increases taxes on millions of Californians; the random Trump tariffs hurt Californian farmers: and the rollbacks to environmental laws hurt our air and water. Trump's presence in California would help all Democratic candidates." Aside from the Ohio special election, 4 states have primaries on Tuesday and Hawaii has its primary on Saturday. Let's go through the House races first.

Kansas has 4 congressional districts and there are 3 that have Democrats running. KS-01-- the entire western and most of the central part of the state-- is so godforsaken (R+24 PVI), that no Democrat is even running. In the other 3 districts there are 2 Bernie carts and a Blue Dog in contention. KS-04 (Wichita) seems to be on the way to nominate James Thompson, the Kansan Blue America has endorsed. An oddity of this race, for the Koch brothers seat Mike Pompeo left to join the Trump regime, is that incumbent Ron Estes' Republican primary opponent is also named Ron Estes (and he's a registered Democrat!).

There is also an excellent progressive running against Republican Kevin Yoder in KS-03 (Topeka, Lawrence, Atchison, Pittsburg), Brent Welder. It's the least red district in the state (PVI-- R+4). Brent has a bevy of standard variety Democrats to get through tomorrow before he can face Yoder. For KS-02 (Kansas City), the DCCC has heavily backed a right-of-center Blue Dog, former state House minority leader Paul Davis, for the open seat, and his has no primary opponent. There are 7 Republicans in the hunt. Davis has raised more than the 3 top Republicans in the race combined.

The big race statewide in Kansas is for governor. After Sam Brownback bankrupted the state and ran off to become Trump's so-called "Ambassador for International Religious Freedom," Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer, a relatively mainstream conservative became governor. Neo-fascist Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who has his head planted up Trump's ass, is challenging him. Both Hannity and Trumpanzee, Jr have endorsed Kobach, of course.

In Michigan, there is also a big gubernatorial primary tomorrow. The status quo establishment pick is Gretchen Whitmer and the progressive in the race is Abdul El-Sayed (endorsed by Blue America). There's also a fake-progressive multimillionaire in the race, Shri Thanedar, who has helped fund Republicans. On the GOP side, Trump has endorsed a vile extremist, Attorney General Bill Schuette, against more mainstream conservative, Lt. Governor Brian Calley (who's being backed by outgoing Gov. Rick Snyder.

Michigan has 14 primaries (one of which-- in Detroit-- is a special election to replace John Conyers). The front runner is AAA progressive Rashida Tlaib (endorsed by Blue America). These are the primary candidates in Michigan, all progressives, we recommend voting for:

• MI-06: Matt Longjohn
• MI-09: Ellen Lipton
• MI-11: Haley Stevens
• MI-12: Rashida Tlaib

There's not much going on for progressives in Missouri,other than a long shot chance to replace corrupt Democrat Lacy Clay with progressive Cori Bush in St. Louis.

Washington state has 10 congressional seats-- 6 held by Democrats and 4 held by Republicans. With the exception of Pramila Jayapal in Seattle-- one of the best members of Congress-- the Democrats are all status quo conservative New Dems. The big news though is that 3 of the 4 Republicans are vulnerable in November. Imagine a Washington delegation with 9 Democrats and 1 Republican! One of the New Dems, Adam Smith (WA-09), is being primaried by progressive Sarah Smith. Now, what we all want is to see 3 Republicans replaced with 3 Democrats-- in WA-03, where Carolyn Long is poised to oust Jaime Herrera Beutler; in WA-05, where Lisa Brown (endorsed by Blue America) is poised to oust the 4th highest ranking Republican in the House, Cathy McMorris Rogers; and in WA-08... well, that's the complicated one, which will be solved tomorrow. Dave Reichert, the Republican incumbent in this district-- with an even PVI (and where Obama won both times and where Hillary beat Trumpanzee 47.7% to 44.7%)-- is retiring. A more conservative Republican, Dino Rossi, has his nomination locked. The 3 top Dems in the primary, Kim Schrier, Jason Rittereiser and Shannon Hader, are all decent progressives. The Democrats in the district, which stretches from Seattle and Tacoma's eastern outer suburbs-- 75% of the voters live in King and Pierce counties-- and then east past the Cascades as far as Wenatchee, Chelan and Ellensburg, will render their verdict tomorrow.

And then comes the one primary next Saturday, where there is a gubernatorial battle and a congressional race in Honolulu. The Honolulu primary pits one of the most progressive candidates anywhere in the country, Kaniela Ing (endorsed by Blue America) running against 4 conservatives from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. One, Beth Fukumoto was the actual minority leader of the House Republicans until recently, fighting every progressive bill Kaniela proposed. Now she claims to be a "Democrat." The other 3 are Ed Case, a former far right/Republican-lite Blue Dog member of Congress (the Kyrsten Sinema of his day and a cousin of AOL's Steve Case). He may be the worst in the race, but Donna Mercado King is a close runner-up-- a vicious anti-gay sociopath and a Republican in every way except for the "D" next to her name. Doug Chin is the corrupt corporate Attorney General who was appointed to his job and never won a race for anything and likely never win. We'll be talking more about this crucial race later in the week. Please consider contributing to Kaniela here, while considering why this poster-- and Alexandria's decision to travel to Hawaii next weekend-- is so important.

Will Trump Deliver A Deep Red Ohio House District To The Democrat On Tuesday?

On Tuesday there's a congressional special election in a very gerrymandered deep red district (OH-12) in central Ohio. It shouldn't even be competitive. But it is. The last time the district voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was just over a century ago. And the Democratic candidate, Danny O'Connor, isn't even any good-- just a run-of-the-mill right-of-center nothing, not much better than the run-of-the-mill right-of-center nothing the GOP is running, Troy Balderson. The only real issue Tuesday is Trump.

Yesterday, AP reported that, much to the chagrin of most Republican leaders, Trump is reshaping the midterm campaigns. Yesterday he was in Ohio doing a rally for Balderson, whose name he mixed up with another congressman's from the area last week with one of his one-size-fits-all inauthentic twitter endorsements. His "strategy of becoming aggressively involved in the midterm elections," reports AP, "is prompting concern among some Republicans who worry he's complicating the political calculus for GOP candidates trying to outrun his popularity. Those Republicans worry their statewide candidates may rise or fall based on Trump's standing, muddling their path to maintain control of Congress. But Trump has no plans to step out of the spotlight."

The president is casting himself as the star of the midterms, eagerly inserting himself into hotly contested primaries, headlining rallies in pivotal swing states and increasing his fundraising efforts for Republicans. Last week, Trump agreed to donate a portion of his reelection fund to 100 GOP candidates running in competitive House and Senate races.

He's expected to be even more aggressive in the fall. White House officials say he's reserving time on his schedule for midterm travel and fundraising likely to surpass that of former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

"This is now about Donald Trump," said Al Cardenas, a former Florida Republican chairman. "It's a high-risk, high-stakes proposition."

The balance Republicans worry about is if the hardcore Trump supporters he turns out is greater than the Democrats and independents he riles up and gets to go to the polls to defeat his candidates. As AP pointed out "there are some signs that Trump's unpopularity with the general electorate may hamper more than help individual Republican candidates... [S]ome Republicans warn Trump's outsized media presence drowns out the messages of congressional candidates, who believe the path to victory lies with a focus on local issues, the Republican tax cuts and the prospect of Nancy Pelosi becoming House speaker again. In Ohio, Balderson and his GOP allies have tried to tie Democrat Danny O'Connor to Pelosi." It's a stretch that didn't work in the Pennsylvania race that put Conor Lamb in Congress in a much redder district than OH-12. But with Trump in the district there's no stretch for Democrats who want to tie Balderson to him and his unpopular policies. And there's more than his unpopular policies to tie Balderson to.

Henry Gomez was a well-known reporter for the Cleveland Plain Dealer who is now a political reporter for BuzzFeed. He hit on the worries of Ohio Republicans in his tweet above. As Trump headed to Ohio yesterday, his racist comments on LeBron, not the issues in the House race, were what people in OH-12 were talking about. The headline in the Plain Dealer: "President Trump slams LeBron James’ intelligence on Twitter, draws immediate negative reaction." Balderson (and NRCC chairman Steve Stivers, from a neighboring district) must have been swallowing antacids by the handful.

Trump's idiotic tweet was referencing LeBron’s CNN interview with Don Lemon. LeBron noted that Trump uses "sports to kinda divide us, and that’s something that I can’t relate to. Sports has never been something that divides people. It’s always been something that brings someone together."

The CNN interview was last Monday after James opened his I Promise School for third- and fourth-graders who are falling behind their peers academically in his hometown of Akron, Ohio. "On Saturday morning, in response to Trump's gratuitous attack, Lemon tweeted a link to his interview with James and this comment: 'Who’s the real dummy? A man who puts kids in classrooms or one who puts kids in cages? #BeBest'." Trump sees two successful black men and the inner KKK-self he inherited from his father pops right out. Social media exploded with anti-Trump sentiments, many comparing LeBron's new school to the Trump University scam. Even Melania backed LeBron after her husband had made a complete and utter ass of himself. It's exactly the kind of distraction Republican leaders fear about Trump's participation in the midterms, not just in Ohio, but everywhere.

Democratic House Campaigns About The DCCC Regional Vice Chairs: "What's That?"

What a waste of time this morning! I called a couple of dozen campaign managers all over the country, almost entirely campaign managers for candidates who had already won their primaries. And I had an identical simple question for each one: "Have you talked to your DCCC Regional Vice Chair?" Except for the ones in California, I got the same answer from every campaign manager. "Who's that?" or "What's that?" No one knew. They didn't know on the East Coast. They didn't know in the Midwest. They didn't know in the South. The region that encompasses Texas and the Rocky Mountain States doesn't even have a DCCC vice chair because Pelosi and Luján preferred to control everything themselves so never bothered replacing Jared Polis when he resigned about a year ago.

The West Coast campaign managers and candidates had a different answer but they all had the same answer among themselves, more or less. They couldn't stop singing the praises of Ted Lieu and of his chief of staff, Marc Cevasco. Why's that? Simple. Ted had just done the first of 5 events he planned featuring all the candidates. At each event, all the money raised-- and all means all gets split up between the candidates. Ted gets zero, except the satisfaction of helping elect Democrats who have already won their primaries.

At the first event, Ted brought in $520,000 and he hopes to do similarly well in Orange County, San Francisco, Seattle and at another one in L.A. All the California candidates had an opportunity to be introduced and then mingle with the 250 high end donors. One campaign manager told me it was the best event she had been part of ever, although she did admit she's a massive Fleetwood Mac fan... and Lindsey Buckingham was the "entertainment." Another manager was flipping out because one of the guest s was Michael Avenatti, who he got to talk to one on one.

It sure would be nice seeing the other regional vice chairs taking their positions seriously and not just as another box to tick off on their resumes. I called one of them and he told me he doesn't know why he ever ran for the post and doesn't know what he's supposed to do. Nice! Of course it doesn't help that Pelosi and Luján want to see these guys fail so they can reassert and concentrate their own authority over the DCCC.

These are the regional vice chairs:

• Midwest- Betty McCollum
• South- Donald McEachin
• Northeast- Joe Kennedy III
• West Coast- Ted Lieu

The other thing I like about the way Ted is doing this, is that the money goes straight to the candidates. They know how to spend it and they-- or most of them-- are the least likely to waste it on consultants and wasteful media campaigns. When you give money to the DCCC, a huge portion is money right down a rat-hole. I'd like to see some of the congressmembers involved with the DCCC raising some real money for candidates, not just for the hopelessly corrupt organization itself. Denny Heck (D-WA) was the chairman of the failed recruitment committee. The least he could do is raise some money for the lousy candidates he recruited. He's personally very wealthy and has lots of wealthy friends. Spread the wealth and let's stop Trump in his tracks for real.

The "Sucking Up To Rich People Committee" is co-chaired by Jim Himes (D-CT), Richard Neal (D-MA), Terri Sewell (D-AL) and Joaquin Castro (D-TX). How about diverting some of those partners and allies cash into the candidates' campaigns, instead of watching the crooked DCCC staffers waste it making incompetent consultants wealthier?

Alright, as long as you've gotten this far, you deserve some good news. Bloomberg reporter Josh Green wrote that the blue wave is being powered by a green wave. In the second quarter that ended June 30, "the torrent of money pouring into Democratic campaign coffers helped 73 House candidates outraise Republican incumbents and opponents in races for open seats."

Since Trump’s election, Democratic enthusiasm has been apparent in all sorts of ways: the proliferation of anti-Trump marches, the record number of new candidates running for office, increased turnout in primaries and special elections, and surveys showing left-leaning voters more invested in November’s election than their counterparts. That energy has also translated into dollars. In the second quarter of this year, non-incumbent Democratic House candidates raised more than three times the amount they did in the same period in 2014. That works out to an average of $151,000 per candidate, compared with $101,000 in 2014.

Oops-- bad chart. These numbers should actually be taken out of the averages since these are super wealthy self-funders. None of this has anything to do with grassroots enthusiasm or anything... except obsessed guys buying House seats. This is how much each had contributed to his own campaign as of June 30. The percentage is how much the self-funding equalled in relation to total fundraising.

• David Trone (MD)- $11,483,172 (95.89%)
• Paul Kerr (CA)- $5,912,728 (99.04%)
• Scott Wallace (PA)- $4,856,892 (90.28%)
• Gil Cisneros (CA)- $4,552,762 (82.78%)

I can't go on with this. I read the rest of Green's report and realized my goldfish knows more about American politics than he does and that all his "info" came straight from the DCCC press shop. Let's just leave it at this and remember, it's the anti-red wave that will be lifting all boats in Novmeber. Only the Kremlin could save the GOP now. Will Trump get Putin to do it again?

You know there's a special congressional election on Tuesday, right? Pat Tiberi retired and this is to replace him in central Ohio's super-gerrymandered 12th CD. Most of the voters live in north Columbus and the suburbs and small towns north of the city. It shoots north of the Columbus Metro as far north as Bellville and Mansfield rand as far east as as Newark and Zanesville. The last time the district voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was 1916 and the PVI is R+7. Obama lost with around 44% each time and Trump beat Hillary 53.2% to 41.9%. Democratic congressional candidates don't try to win the district but this special election is... special-- TRUMP. The Democratic candidate is a conservative Democrat, Danny O'Connor (think Ossoff) and the Republican is an establishment guy, Troy Balderson, not a Trumpist crazy. But Pence has been campaigning for him and Trump will be there over the weekend. Monmouth reported a dead heat this week-- a one-point difference, which means it's going to be all about which field operation will turn out the most voters.

As of July 18, O'Connor had raised $1,445,504 and had $129,201 in cash left and Balderson had raised $1,264,723 and has $208,032. But the GOP is spending like mad on Balderson's behalf. Paul Ryan's PAC spent $2,460,624, the NRCC spent $1,302,427 and the RNC kicked in $451,925. Other right-wing groups tossed in another million. Meanwhile, the DCCC spent $629,854. In all, $3,171,265 has been spent smearing O'Connor, basically trying to make him into Nancy Pelosi and $2,003,753 has been spent trying to bolster Balderson. If the Democrats win Tuesday, it means the only issue in November will be Trump and that the GOP might as well let the chips fall where they do and save their 2018 money for 2020.

Trump's Political Operation... A Joke

Who gives Trump his political advice? I mean the day to day stuff? Whoever it is is definitely an amateur. See that tweet below? You won't see the generic one-size-firs-all endorsement on Trump's Twitter feed. He took it down when someone mentioned to him that though Steve Stivers' district is also in the Columbus area, he isn't the faceless candidate Trump is going to flying into Columbus to back this weekend. Tuesday is the special election between state Senator Troy Balderson (R) and Franklin County recorder Danny O'Connor (D). Trump's clown and his original tweet was featured yesterday in the Columbus Dispatch and was all over local TV news coverage last night. He's never met Balderson and doesn't know who Stivers, chair of the NRCC, is either. The tweet was up for just about 10 minutes before someone came into Trump's cave and told him to take it down. They replaced it with some inauthentic bullshit calling Balderson "true talented."

I had a feeling that when Bannon went on a rampage warning Republicans in Congress as well as candidates not to accept any Koch money or face "punishment," that it could be traced back to Señor Trumpanzee. And sure enough... just hours later, the Trump-conrtroled RNC puppet, Ronna Romney, chimed in with the same message! "I am contacting you to let you know how we are responding-- and how the President has responded."

We work with our primary data vendor-- Data Trust-- to help gather, scrub and build the largest data set that has ever been created so that our analytics are incredibly accurate.

Unfortunately, while we were building these state-of-the-art capabilities, the Koch Network built their own competing data platform (i360). They have sold this data platform to some Republican campaigns, but that data is often not shared with our data eco-system and therefore does not benefit other Republican candidates including the President. This is why we contract exclusively with Data Trust-- because we know they are a vendor who we can count on to help work with us, not against us, to grow our data capabilities.

From the beginning, the RNC had concerns about any outside entity building a data operation to compete with ours because we knew they could potentially weaponize that data against Republicans if their business interests conflicted with electing Republicans.

Sadly, our concerns were recently proven true.

In closing I want to be very clear: the RNC proved in 2014 and 2016 that the Party is the only entity which can be trusted with the data Republicans candidates need to win up and down the ballot-- and this week proves why it is NECESSARY that the Party keep building on our successful operation.

The Koch political operations don't necessarily give money to candidates. They do independent expenditures for their favored candidates, often attacks on Democrats. And, legally, they can't discuss those campaigns with the candidates. So do Republican candidates get "punished" by Trump if the Koch brothers run TV ads against Democrats or for Republicans? So far they're spending millions in Wisconsin (against Tammy Baldwin) and Missouri (against Claire McCaskill). Did Trump tell Ronna what to do about that yet?


UPDATE

This morning, The Hill reported that Bannon was still on his anti-Koch warpath. He referred to them as con artists and their operation as "a conscious scam." He also said that Paul Ryan "should have been removed" as Speaker as soon as he announced he was retiring from Congress and that Ryan is retiring "because he never supported" Señor Trumpanzee. He said he would like to see Mark Meadows or the Ohio ex-wrestling coach enmeshed in a couple of sex scandals become the GOP leader instead of Ryan. He also denigrated Mitch McConnell (again).

Bannon argued the Koch network had lost some of its biggest donors after backing a number of losing candidates during the 2012 election cycle.

Now, he alleged, it was run by “con artists.”

“The Koch network is a conscious scam,” he insisted. “It’s an open secret in conservative circles that they are a scam, ok? And that’s why no big donors are with them anymore. They are fleecing these smaller donors…because these guys haven’t gotten the word. But it’s a total scam.”

Bannon also insisted, “Those aren’t donors. Those are marks. This is a con job.”

James Davis, a spokesman for the Koch network, responded: “We just had our largest summer seminar ever with more than 500 attendees. Our discussion focused on uniting the country to help remove barriers that are preventing people from reaching their potential. Toward that end, we look forward to working with anyone whenever possible, to help people improve their lives.”

If Bannon’s opprobrium for the Koch network is particularly sharp, it is only part of a broader picture where he argues that the GOP has not yet changed to reflect the enthusiasm for Trump among the party’s base.

“The apparatus-- the donor class-- by and large I think still opposes President Trump, particularly the larger donors,” he complained.

Ohio Special Election A Week From Today-- Trump's GOP Civil Way Is Screwing It All Up For The Republicans

Trying to out wing nut each other in a moderate district

On Saturday we took a look at one of the districts Republicans in the Ohio legislature has effectively gerrymandered to protect their own party, OH-12. As we said, the central Ohio district spreads out from Columbus' northern University District and the suburbs north and east of the city-- Worthington, Dubin, Westerville, New Albany, Gahanna to Delaware County in the north and way up to Mansfield and Bellville and as far east as Newark, Zanesville and beyond. The PVI is R+7, safe for the GOP in any cycle except one with a Trump-inspired massive blue tsunami. Trump won it 53.2 to 41.9 in 2016 and voters there are feeling buyers' remorse now.

On Monday morning, Elena Schneider noted at Politico that there's another, more local problem for Republicans in the district a bitter civil war... and just in time a special election a week from today. "The race," she wrote, "pits the two wings of the House Republican Conference against each other, going all out to nominate rival candidates. On one side is the scrappy co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Jim Jordan, who is lining up behind Melanie Leneghan, a self-described Trump Republican. Jordan is going up against former Rep. Pat Tiberi, a close ally of GOP leadership who resigned from his seat in January and has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars from his old campaign account to boost state Sen. Troy Balderson as his successor." Club for Growth just started running this nasty ad attacking Balderson:



It's the kind of messaging (anti-healthcare) that could work in a Republican primary-- and backfire with independents in the general election.

It’s the latest in a series of mainstream-versus-outsider battles in Republican primaries around the country. But some of Balderson’s backers say there is more than intraparty politics at stake: They argue that a Leneghan primary win would put the GOP in danger of losing another special election this summer, in a district that’s been held for decades by Republicans like Tiberi and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Democrats have already flipped a Senate seat in Alabama and a House seat in Pennsylvania in recent months, and House Republicans would dearly love to avoid a repeat in August.

“[Leneghan] is out-of-step with mainstream Republicans that dominate that district, and we’ve got a bunch of candidates dividing up that majority, so we could pick someone who doesn’t represent the district with her pretty extreme viewpoints,” said Matt Borges, the former Ohio Republican Party chairman. “We’re looking at a situation where every seat counts to hang on the majority. We don’t need any self-inflicted wounds.”

Borges added: “I don’t want to see another Pennsylvania-18,” referring to the March special election in southwestern Pennsylvania, where Democrat Conor Lamb beat much-criticized Republican Rick Saccone in a district that Trump carried by almost 20 points in 2016. The president carried Ohio’s 12th District by a smaller margin in 2016, with 53 percent of the vote.

Another national Republican strategist put the situation in Ohio even more bluntly: “If she wins, the seat’s probably gone.”

Jordan dismissed that possibility in an interview with Politico, saying, “That’s always what the establishment and the swamp says.

“You’ve got to turn out the grassroots, if you’re going to win a special. So she’s the best one equipped to do that. She’s the best equipped to win the general,” Jordan said.

Jordan compared Leneghan to fellow Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson, the tea party- and Club-backed congressman who won the special election to replace former House Speaker John Boehner in 2016-- and promptly joined the House Freedom Caucus, the group of conservative hard-liners who had forced Boehner from the speakership.

“I guess you could say Melanie Leneghan will actually do what Republicans are supposed to do,” Jordan says in a pro-Leneghan TV ad aired by the super PAC House Freedom Action.

Tiberi took to the airwaves himself days after Jordan’s ad went up, and the former congressman has spent nearly a half-million dollars from his old campaign account to boost Balderson. Tiberi has said he wants “our next congressman to be worthy of the job,” calling Balderson a “conservative fighter who will stand for what’s right, not what’s easy” in his ads.

The former congressman has also invoked the March special election in Pennsylvania when asked about the race to replace him, telling The Columbus Dispatch that “we just saw last month in western Pennsylvania, a seat that Donald Trump won by twice as many votes [in 2016], go to a Democrat because the Republican was too conservative for the district.”

Balderson and Leneghan have often sounded similar notes during the primary campaign. Both promise to “end sanctuary cities” and build a wall on the Mexican border in their ads, and both have pledged to stand with Trump.

They are leading the Republican pack in Tiberi’s old 12th District, according to internal polling shared with Politico. But a handful of other candidates still have a path to victory in next week’s primary, including Tim Kane, a veteran and first-time candidate who’s running as an alternative to “career politicians.” Kevin Bacon, a state legislator since 2006, also has name recognition in the district.

“With this many candidates in the field, anything can happen,” said Mark Weaver, a Republican consultant working with Bacon.

But it’s Balderson and Leneghan who have drawn national attention to the primary. Club for Growth President David McIntosh called it an example of an “authentic conservative versus a ‘Main Street,’ but really a liberal to moderate, Republican.” That diagnosis has brought the Club for Growth into conflict with other forces within the GOP in primary after primary in recent years, especially in Republican-leaning House districts where an incumbent has retired. When Tiberi was considering a Senate run in 2017, the Club released polling showing him trailing its favored candidate and later ran ads suggesting Tiberi was “standing in the way” of health care reform.

...Balderson and his allies are not conceding the conservative space to Leneghan. Defending Main Street, a super PAC backed by the Republican Main Street Partnership, which frequently spars with the Club in Republican primaries, is also going negative in the race. Defending Main Street is attacking Leneghan in digital ads, stamping “Fake Republican” across her picture.

“As a township trustee, Leneghan authorized the paving of her own street. What paid for it? Your taxes,” the digital ad says. Defending Main Street has already spent $250,000 in positive TV ads boosting Balderson.

Fund for a Working Congress, another outside group, also dumped anti-Leneghan mailers on the district, attacking her for “[voting] to give herself a raise” and “[putting] herself before voters.”

“It is Pat’s seat, so I think he has a good sense of who should replace him,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership. “Leneghan is running as the ultra-conservative in the race, but if you look at her voting record, it leaves question marks.”

Last week in Arizona there was a huge swing away from the GOP in a much redder district. If the swing is that big in OH-12, whichever Republican wins the primary will lose the seat. And in Arizona, the far right candidate who did win, Debbie Lesko, didn't campaign as an extremist... but the day after she scraped by with a margin of less than 5% (in a district Trump won with a margin over 20%), she announced she's joined the neo-fascist Freedom Caucus. She had been supported by Jordan as well.

Republican Gerrymandered OH-12 Special Election Now Rated A Toss Up

OH-12 should be a competitive district. But the Republican-controlled legislature gerrymandered it in such a way as to make it safe for Republicans. Pat Tiberi, first elected in 2000, has never had a competitive race, not just because the Ohio Democratic Party died some years ago, but because Democrats knew the boundaries made running there a waste of time. A Republican has held the congressional seat since 1983. But, sick of Trump, Tiberi decided to retire this year and OH-12 is now an open seat with an August 7 special election. The district spreads out from Columbus' northern University District and the suburbs north and east of the city-- Worthington, Dubin, Westerville, New Albany, Gahanna to Delaware County in the north and way up to Mansfield and Bellville and as far east as Newark, Zanesville and beyond. Trump had no trouble beating Hillary in this R+7 district. He took 53.2% to her 41.9%. But yesterday... out of the blue, the Cook Report announced that the OH-12 special election is now a toss up. Where did that come from?

Like I said, the Ohio Democratic Party is essentially dead and there are no thrilling candidates among the half dozen or so Democrats running for the party nomination May 8. The establishment candidate is Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor although Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott is supposed to be competitive with him, as is a 27-year-old Galena farmer, John Russell, the progressive and grassroots activist in the race. Scott has gone out of his was to claim the mantle of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party and to make sure voters know he's not a progressive-- a really dumb more in a Democratic primary. O'Connor is nearly as bad, but keeping it more to himself. Both loudly claim they wouldn't vote for Pelosi as speaker.

On the Republican side, there are even more candidates with a bitter primary bitting far right crackpot Melanie Leneghan-- backed by the neo-fascist Freedom Caucus (and endorsed by Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows)-- Troy Balderson, an establishment centrist endorsed by Tiberi (who put $150,000 into the race), and the local fave, Carol O'Brien, a county prosector. As of the March 31 FEC reporting deadline, there were six candidates who had raised enough money to run competitive campaigns:

• Tim Kane (R)- $427,493
• Troy Balderson (R)- $415,724
• Melanie Leneghan (R)- $375,901
• Carol O'Brien (R)- $193,387
• Danny O'Connor (D)- $161,951
• Kevin Bacon (R)- $146,928

So how does Cook call it a toss-up when it isn't even clear who the candidates will be? Trump. They're now assuming the election will be a referendum on the increasingly unpopular Trump-- especially in Ohio's most highly educated and most affluent district.

2018 House Elections Coming Up... But It Seems Kind Of Quiet In Ohio

We've been talking about a big primary day coming up-- May 8-- and focussing on lively primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, where Democrats have an opportunity to elect valient progressives Dan Canon and Jenny Marshall. May 8th, though, is also primary day in Ohio. In theory, November should be a good opportunity for Democrats to win back some congressional seats in Ohio. There's a gubernatorial race and a Senate race. According to a new poll by SurveyUSA, Sherrod Brown is running way ahead of both GOP front-runners, multimillionaire right wing crackpots Mike Gibbons (who has written his campaign a $854,654 check) and Jim Renacci, also a multimillionaire and another freaky Trumpist. The survey shows Brown beating either one of them 52% to 38%. Those would be some good coattails to be rising for a congressional candidate, especially in suburban districts that have turned toxic for Republicans because of Trump's and Paul Ryan's disapproval numbers.

The crowded gubernatorial field is coming down to a contest between Dennis Kucinich and Richard Cordray, who are tied at 21/21, the only candidates in double digits. (The likely GOP nominee, Mike DeWine, looks like he could beat either.)

Favorable/unfavorable job ratings for current office-holders seem to be signaling the 2018 could be a good year for Democrats:

• Senator Sherrod Brown (D)- 55-27%
• Governor John Kasich (R)- retiring- 54/31%
• Homophobe Mike Pence (R)- 46/41%
• Senator Rob Portman (R)- 44/37%
• Señor Donald Trumpanzee (R)- 41/51%

But are the Democrats fielding any credible candidates in Ohio's super-gerrymandered congressional districts? The DCCC has endorsed one candidate so far, Aftab Pureval, a county clerk in the first congressional district where the incumbent is Steve Chabot; it should be a top tier race, but it isn't. As of the December 31 FEC deadline Pureval hadn't raised any money. Shockingly, there isn't a serious challenger in OH-02 (Brad Wenstrump), OH-04 (Jim Jordan), OH-05 (Bob Latta), OH-06 (Bill Johnson), OH-08 (Warren Davidson), OH-12 (open-Tiberi ), or OH-16 (open-Renacci). There are 4 red districts were there are at least Democrats trying, although all would have to be rated as long shots, very long shots... even in a wave cycle:

• OH-15 (Steve Stivers)- Rick Neal
• OH-14 (David Joyce)- Betsy Rader
• OH-10 (Mike Turner)- Theresa Gasper
• OH-07 (Bob Gibbs)- Ken Harbaugh

These 4 are at least raising some money to get their message out and make sure voters know there's a candidate challenging the incumbent. In fact, Harbaugh actually outraised Gibbs-- $690,227 to $455,200-- as of December 31. (Caveat: Gibbs has a campaign war chest with $1,298,289.)

There's no reason that the Democrats should be fighting well-financed vigorous campaigns in OH-01 (Cincinnati, PVI R+5), OH-10 (Dayton, PVI R+4), OH-12 (northern Columbus metro, PVI R+7), OH-14 (Cleveland, Akron suburbs, PVI R+5), OH-15 (southern Columbus metro, R+7) and OH-16 (Cleveland, Akron, Canton suburbs, R+8).

There's a special elections coming up for Tiberi's seat (OH-12) on August 7 (so it's just for 3 months) and the primary is May 8 for both the special and the general. There are 10 Republicans and 6 Democrats running. The Dems include Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott, reactionary Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor and last cycle's congressional candidate Ed Albertson. None of the Democrats have raised enough money to finance a competitive campaigns though people have noted that OH-12 should be an easier climb for a Democrat than PA-18's special was last month. Remember in Pennsylvania, the PVI was R+11 and in OH-12 it's only R+7. In the Pennsylvania district Trump beat Hillary by 19 points. In the Ohio district it was just 11 points. Conor Lamb spent $3,031,838 on the race and the DCCC and allied groups spent another $1,919,746. By way of comparison, the OH-12 Democrat who had spent the most as of December 31 was John Russell-- $20,454. All this aside, Cook has changed the district's rating from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" and Sabato's Crystal Ball changed the race the same way-- from likely to lean.

Although the Republicans have a 2-1 registration advantage, more than half the voters are independents and the independents will determine who wins. According to a report from CNBC on the race

If a Democrat has a shot of winning the district, the candidate will likely need to win over highly educated independents and Republicans in Columbus' outskirts who disapprove of Trump. Having to go through a primary process could make that more difficult for a Democrat in Ohio than it was for Lamb, said Mark Weaver, a Republican strategist at the Columbus-based Communications Counsel.

To win a primary election, candidates often have to go closer to their party's extremes. It can make them less appealing to general election voters.

Republicans have argued Lamb had an easier path than other candidates will this year because he did not face a primary election. It allowed him to take moderate stances that would not have held up had he gone through a primary, they contend.

"Most Democratic primaries won't produce a former Marine, former prosecutor, good-looking white guy who loves to shoot AR-15s and who says he's personally pro-life and wants to toss out Nancy Pelosi," said Weaver, who is working as a consultant for the GOP candidate Bacon and has worked with Balderson in the past.

Of course, the primary election concerns go both ways. Weaver says the risk for Republicans in the district is nominating someone whose views skew too far to the right "who cannot win a general election."

That may prove particularly important in Ohio's 12th District, where voters are more educated than the median congressional district. Highly educated voters generally tend to have more socially liberal views and take more time to research and understand the candidates.

So why does this matter, other than hurting Democrats' chances to take back the House? Imagine if there were serious, active campaigns by Democrats in every congressional district, encouraging the Democratic base to get out and vote. Even if the candidates didn't win, they would be helping other candidates up and down the ticket-- Sherrod Brown, for example, or mayors, supervisors, etc. But, like we implied in the title, Ohio hasn't had a living, breathing Democratic Party in decades.