Cleaning House... In Rochester, New York

Monroe County (Rochester, NY) has its own member of Congress. It's a nice, safe blue district-- PVI is D+8-- and Obama won both times with 59% and even Hillary beat Trump in the district 55.5% to 39.1%. Louise Slaughter represented the district for 16 terms, from 1987 'til her death in 2018. she was succeeded by a local political hack, then an Assemblyman and a cog in the corrupt New York state political machine of Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, who appointed him Assembly Majority Leader. (Silver was arrested in 2015 on federal corruption charges for which he was convicted and then sentenced to 12 years in prison and ordered to repay $5.3 million in ill-gotten gains.) When he was arrested, his puppet Morelle became acting Speaker. Morelle is incredibly corrupt and has been caught fixing his own election petitions, a crime.

Morelle joined the Wall Street-owned New Dems and quickly earned an "F" vote score from ProgressivePunch. He paid to also become a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus-- a kind of insurance policy for election time when he can-- falsely-- claim to be a "progressive."

This cycle, Robin Wilt, an actual progressive-- endorsed by Blue America, is running for the seat. One of Wilt's top issues is Medicare-for-All, which Morelle opposes. He had previously voted against the NY Health Act in the state Assembly in 2017 and 2018, despite the bill passing 94/46 and 91/46 respectively, then Chairman of the Assembly Standing Committee on Insurance, a fount of corruption for state politicians. One of his top donors is the American Hospital Association, which is also participating in the funding of the anti-Medicare for All jihad.

Another major plank in Wilt's platform is her support for the Green New Deal, which is also opposed by Morelle who has refused to cosponsor AOC's Green New Deal Resolution.

Morelle has been on the wrong side of almost every progressive initiative since he came to Congress-- from Criminal justice reform (including the No Money Bail Act and the Marijuana Justice Act, which would remove Marijuana as a controlled substance and re-invest in communities affected by the racist war on drugs-- to affordable housing legislation and immigration reform to foreign policy-- he's an AIPAC stooge-- and military spending.

Robin Wilt: "In Monroe County, we hear the clarion call for change. Joe Morelle and the policies that he has championed over the last three decades have rendered our community among the most segregated and impoverished in the country. Our movement has emerged to challenge the status quo and demand policies that will improve the lives of everyone, not just his political cronies and the monied elite."

If you would like to see Bernie's program enacted by Congress, it is incumbent on all of us to help support and elect candidates who back it. Robin Wilt is one of them and you can contribute to her on our Bernie Congress page, which can be accessed by clicking on the thermometer on the right.

Last Westchester County Republican Legislator Switches Party

When I was growing up in Brooklyn-- same neighborhood (and schools) as Bernie-- there were no Republicans anywhere in site. They were all in tony, upscale Westchester north of the City. That's all changed. My old neighborhood is filled with incredibly bigoted and savage Russian immigrants who gave Trump big majorities over Hillary in 2016 and Westchester... well, the last Republican in the county legislature, David Tubiolo, just switched from Republican to Democrat.

Don't get me wrong, Brooklyn is still a Democratic bastion, even if my old neighborhood isn't. Hillary beat Trump in Brooklyn 595,086 (79.7%) to 133,653 (19.9%). Hillary also won in Westchester-- 245,670 (64.9%) to 121,643 (32.1%).

Last week, the Rockland/Westchester Journal News reported that Tubiolo switched his registration to meet the February 14 deadline so that he'd be able to vote in the Democratic primary. (He was also facing a redistricting that will bring more Mt. Vernon Democrats.

“I’m not trying to demonize Republicans,” Tubiolo said. “I’m just saying I feel more comfortable at the moment with the Democratic Party.”

He said he hasn’t decided which of the candidates he’ll vote for, but knows he won’t be voting for President Donald Trump.

...His departure will give Democrats a 16-1 majority on the county Board of Legislators, with only registered Conservative Party member Margaret Cunzio left representing the minority caucus. That marks a major downturn from 2017 when Republicans held the county executive seat and controlled the legislature in a coalition with eight Republican caucus members and two Democrats.

Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-to-1 in the county and the GOP’s influence has been in fast decline in large part as backlash to the Trump election. Republicans have seen big losses in every year since 2016, while the enrollment gap grows exponentially.

Tubiolo said Trump was one of many factors that fueled his decision. The 32-year-old Yonkers resident lamented the loss of Rockefeller Republicans, a more moderate brand of the party popular in the region for decades and named after former New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller.

“They slowly disappeared or they got pushed out of the party,” Tubiolo said. “I always viewed myself more of that kind of mold and I don’t feel I have as much of a home anymore.”

The legislator considers himself pro labor and said he's a proponent of student debt and prison reform, which have become issues more at the forefront of the Democratic Party’s agenda. Tubiolo said he understood some of those who supported him as a Republican may be upset by his decision but he said he’d continue to stay true to his principles.

“They might be upset in one aspect but in another aspect I’m still here, I’m still me, I’m still going to do everything I was doing before,” he said. "It’s just I can’t keep going with this national climate with the president at the top."

Tubiolo’s parents are highly influential members of the local Republican Party. His father, Justin Tubiolo, is chairman of the Yonkers city Republicans. His mother was executive director of the county GOP and worked in the administration of former County Executive Rob Astorino, a Republican and now CNN analyst known for defending Trump on the air.

Friday, when he changed his registration, he said "To be honest I think everyone saw this happening for two years now. It’s the worst-kept secret in the county I’d say... You can get off the sidelines and help make the change we need in this pivotal moment in our history."

A few months ago Tubiolo publicly blamed Trump for how badly the Westchester Republican Party has been doing. No doubt, Cheri Bustos and the DCCC will soon be knocking on his door, since they always favor Republicans over real Democrats and are always recruiting them to run for Congress.

How Badly Will Trump Eviscerate The New York GOP? Really Badly, Worse Than Anyone Could Have Imagined

After Trump's big loss in Louisiana Saturday, congressional Republicans worried about self-reservation are even more worried than they were last week when they could persuade themselves it was just losing Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin's terrible personality. Now it's a simple equation:

Big Democratic turnout + anti-Trump independents = Republican losses

And that holds even in pretty red constituencies. New York State isn't entirely red and I want to look a little closer there because the Republicans can lose some more congressional seats there next year. In 2016, Trump won 9 of the 27 compressional districts in New York, his home state. He won't win 9 next year, unless the Democrats completely blow it and nominate a Hillary-like candidate so uninspiring that he fails, like she did, to turn out the base and fails to woo independents. These are the districts Trump won and by how much:

• NY-01-- Suffolk County- 54.5% to 42.2%
• NY-02-- Suffolk and Nassau- 53.0% to 43.9%
• NY-11-- Staten Island, south Brooklyn- 53.6% to 43.8%
• NY-18-- Orange, Dutchess, Putnam, Westchester- 49.0% to 47.1%
• NY-19-- Ulster, Dutchess, Columbia, Rensselaer- 50.8% to 44.0%
• NY-21-- Saratoga, St. Lawrence, Jefferson, Clinton- 53.9% to 40.0%
• NY-22-- Oneida, Broome, Madison- 54.8% to 39.3%
• NY-23-- Chautauqua, Tompkins, Steuben, Chemung- 54.5% to 39.7%
• NY-27-- Erie, Niagara, Ontario- 59.7% to 35.2%

Let's look at the same 9 congressional districts with their new voter registration numbers (as of this month) and what happened in last year's midterm election:

• NY-01- Lee Zelden (R) reelected

• Dem- 151,357
• Rep- 159,329
• Ind- 131,158

• NY-02- Peter King (R) reelected

• Dem- 163,014
• Rep- 152,306
• Ind- 118,324

• NY-11- Dan Donovan (R)- defeated

• Dem- 193,791
• Rep- 116,019
• Ind- 97,066

• NY-18- Sean Maloney (D) reelected

• Dem- 164,061
• Rep- 135,231
• Ind- 109,142

• NY-19- John Faso (R) defeated

• Dem- 151,976
• Rep- 139,021
• Ind- 116,032

• NY-21- Elise Stefanik (R) reelected

• Dem- 120,462
• Rep- 166,884
• Ind- 86,274

• NY-22- Claudia Tenney (R) defeated

• Dem- 130,548
• Rep- 158,947
• Ind- 83,702

• NY-23- Tom Reed (R) reelected

• Dem- 131,443
• Rep- 154,964
• Ind- 85,984

• NY-27- Chris Collins (R) reelected, resigned

• Dem- 144,719
• Rep- 185,505
• Ind- 100,878

It's looking like Trump has alienated about 60% of independent voters to the point where they will vote Democrats. If that happens next November-- and spills over into the congressional races-- look for Democrats to win both Long Island districts and the Syracuse district (John Katko) and too close to call in NY-21 and NY-27. Imagine if Tom Reed is the only Republican left in the New York congressional delegation. And with the state likely to lose a seat after the census...

Flipping Another New York State Congressional State Blue?

Want to see a right-wing nut's head explode?

Big states often have big chunks of territory left over after the congressional districts are drawn, diverse counties and parts of counties that have nothing necessarily in common with each other but don'tfitinto the other districts. In California, the massive 8th district is like that. It goes from the San Bernardino and Redlands suburbs and Yucca Valley and Lake Havasu in the south through Death Valley and Mammoth Lakes all the way north as far as-- though east of-- Sacramento. In New York, the district is the last one, NY-27 in the western part of the state. It includes the left over rural areas between Buffalo and the suburbs west and south of Rochester. 65% of the popuation-- about 92% white-- live in suburbs and 22% live in rural areas. It includes all or part of 8 counties, listed in order 2018 voters and including political performance in the congressional race that year:

• Erie- 124,657 (D+5)
• Niagara- 49,265 (R+1)
• Ontario- 28,373 (D+9)
• Livingston- 24,083 (R+2)
• Genesee- 20,808 (R+13)
• Wyoming- 13,237 (R+28)
• Orleans- 12,640 (R+22)
• Monroe- 12,115 (D+2)

Although, it isn't remotely related to the congressional results, Cook's PVI is a heavily red R+11. Obama lost the district both times by double digits and Trump beat Hillary 59.7% to 35.2%, his best and her worst performance in the state.

The congressional race between Trumpets incumbent Chris Collins and progressive Democrat Nate McMurray was essentially a dead heat, the closest race in the country-- and one neither the DCCC nor the NRCC was involved with:

The two candidates raised around the same amount of money but Collins used banked money to spend $1,811,514 compared to McMurray's $1,252,822.

This cycle is shaping up very differently. First of all, McMurray is no long a basically unknown candidate from one corner of the district (having served as a Grand Island (Erie County) Supervisor. With Collins about to go on trial or, more likely, cop a plea that will include resigning from Congress, for a range of corruption charges, federal, state and local Republicans are frightened that McMurray will flip the seat next year.

There are already 3 Republicans primarying Collins, state Senator Rob Ortt, far right activist Beth Parlato and state Senator and former Secretary of State Chris Jacobs whose family is the wealthiest in western New York. (His family owns the Boston Bruins and his uncle is worth over $4 billion). As of the July FEC report Jacobs had raised $$771,273 to Collins' $516,380, all of it self-funded. (42% of Jacobs money comes from an unidentified source-- like his family-- $323,000 and the rest of it comes from large contributions.

According to Politico state GOP chair Nick Langworthy doesn't think Collins will run in 2020. One of the other candidates, Rob Ortt from North Tonawanda who is unknown outside of his own small district, said "It’s a district where there are a lot more gun clubs than country clubs. I know those voters, and I know the issues that they’re concerned about. They want someone who’s going to go in there, defend the president’s agenda and not be afraid to take on a fight.

Another local GOP official said he spoke to two other interested candidates just this month. Additional names high on the possible succession list include Republican Erie County comptroller Stefan Mychajliw Jr., state Assemblyman Stephen Hawley (R-Batavia) and Medal of Honor recipient David Bellavia, an Iraq War veteran who ran against Collins in 2012, when the incumbent won his first term.

“Obviously you don’t want to wait too long if you are interested and something happens,” said Niagara County Republican Committee Chairman Richard Andres. “It was a very, very strange situation last year, and this will be just as interesting one to watch.”

While there’s no shortage of candidates eager to fill Collins’ seat, it’s not a given that he is too weak to survive. After all, he did manage to win last year even though his indictment was announced just three months before Election Day. Independent polling in the district from earlier this month showed 60 percent of Republican primary voters still view Collins favorably. Next year Trump’s name will be at the top of the ballot-- a boon for the party in a district where 81 percent of Republicans who have recently voted in a primary or presidential election said they viewed Trump favorably, according to the poll from Tel Opinion Research.

“This will be a year where polarization of country will probably hold most Republicans in line,” said James Campbell, a University at Buffalo professor who specializes in political campaigns. “I think it would take an unusually strong Democrat and an unusually divisive nomination battle to put us in the toss-up category.”

Republicans didn’t have much time to triage the news of Collins' indictment in 2018, Campbell said, so it makes sense that primary candidates are coming out strong and local party leaders are receptive to Collins’ challengers.

But if the race widens too much, it could play against those seeking his replacement. And that’s exactly what McMurray, the Democrat who nearly took Collins in 2018, is hoping for in round two, he said.

McMurray, a town supervisor who announced in August that he’ll run again, doesn’t buy the concept that the close margin in 2018 was an outlier due to the year’s Democratic wave election and the fresh nature of Collins’ charges.

He said he believes there are moderate Republicans in the district who have grown weary of both Trump and Collins, but that the current challengers look “fake” and “opportunistic” because they’re taking advantage of Collins’ precarious position.

“Every single person in this district knows who I am now,” McMurray said. “They know I’m the guy who stood up to Chris Collins first.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee isn't getting involved in the primary, but is not concerned about a repeat performance from McMurray, NRCC spokesperson Michael McAdams said.

“There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell that Nate McMurray can win with President Trump at the top of the ticket in a district he won by more than 24 points," McAdams said by email.

McMurray, whose $24,021 in reported cash is dwarfed by Republican candidates' funds, said he’s not running his campaign out of the back of his car this time-- “We’re better than we were a year ago”-- and believes he will have a stronger foundation of support from local and national Democrats who took note of his underdog near-victory in 2018.

The way he sees it, a crowded Republican field can only help. “The primary’s not ‘til June next year and they’re going to rip each other apart before then,” McMurray said.

Blue America has endorsed McMurray again and you can contribute to his campaign by clicking on the thermometer above. He's campaigning on the Green New Deal, on Medicare-for-All, on raising the minimum wage to a livable age and on a general reform platform that targets corruption. He's not a big fan of the Trump trade wars that are harming farmers and small towns in western New York.

Kentucky Doesn't Pay Even Close To Its Fair Share Of Taxes. What Should We Do About That?

Kentucky's delegation to Congress includes two Republican senators, Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, plus 6 members of the House, 5 Republicans and one Democrat: James Comer (R), Brett Guthrie (R), John Yarmuth (D), Thomas Massie (R), Hal Rogers (R) and Andy Barr (R). With the exception of Yarmuth, they all have something in common: an often-stated desire to shrink the federal government and reduce taxes. It has a lot to do with how easily them win elections. Kentucky voters also want to shrink the federal government and reduce taxes. They're idiots who don't know how good they have it and would likely suffer mightily if the federal government did shrink.

Paul Krugman was ruminating on this for his NY Times column Monday, writing about the various states' federal 'balance of payments'-- "the difference for each state between what the federal government spends in that state and what it gets back in revenue." I bet you can guess where this is going by now. "The pattern," wrote Krugman, "is familiar: Richer states subsidize poorer states. And the reasons are clear: Rich states pay much more per person in federal taxes, while actually getting a bit less in federal spending, because Medicaid and other 'means-tested' programs go disproportionately to those with low incomes. But the magnitudes are startling. Take the case of Kentucky. In 2017, the state received $40 billion more from the federal government than it paid in taxes. That’s about one-fifth of the state’s G.D.P.; if Kentucky were a country, we’d say that it was receiving foreign aid on an almost inconceivable scale." McConnell and his colleagues manipulate a system for their Moocher State.

Wondering about your own state? The Rockefeller Institute of Government has all the numbers. The taxpayers of just 10 mostly very blue states-- New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois and Washington, North Dakota, Colorado, Nebraska, and New Hampshire-- fund all the rest of them. Who are "what Republicans call the takers, not the makers?" Well... the biggest moochers are, basically, the Old Confederacy and the heart of Trump country. Two states get great deals because of their proximity to DC and all that federal money that gets spent there: Virginia and Maryland. Virginia has an even more favorable balance of payments than Kentucky and Maryland is almost tied with Kentucky. These twenty-one states aren't even coming close to paying their fair share-- from bad to worst (The color-coding is simple. States in red voted for Trump; states in blue voted against Trump):

• West Virginia- $13,225,000
• Arkansas- $15,264,000
• Oklahoma- $15,668,000
• Indiana- $15,727,000
• Louisiana- $17,730,000
• New Mexico- $18,149,000
• Mississippi- $20,53,000
• Georgia- $23,501,000
• Tennessee- $24,115,000
• Missouri- $24,144,000
• Michigan- $24,648,000
• South Carolina- $25,162,000
• Pennsylvania- $29,435,000
• Arizona- $31,085,000
• Ohio- $32,062,000
• Alabama- $32,630,000
• North Carolina- $34,495,000
• Maryland- $36,524,000
• Kentucky- $40,733,000
• Florida- $45,886,000
• Virginia- $87,253,000

The takers are being subsidized by the makers in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois, Washington, etc. Bunch of welfare bums! They better hope that AOC and her colleagues agree to keep funding their sorry asses.

The findings are clear: New York’s residents and businesses-- which consistently send more revenue to the Federal government than any other state-- continue to contribute more in taxes than the state receives back in Federal spending. Key findings from this year’s report include:

• Preliminary analysis of 2017 data indicates that at -$35.6 billion, New York’s overall balance of payments remains the least favorable of any state in the nation. New York maintains its rank from 2016 (-$38.6 billion).
• New York’s shortfall in 2017 is nearly as large as that of second-ranked New Jersey (-$21.3 billion) and third-ranked Massachusetts (-$16.1 billion) combined. Connecticut and Illinois round out the list of the states with the least favorable balances.
• The state’s per capita balance of payments, -$1,792, continues to rank the state as one of the least favorable in the nation. New York’s negative per capita balance of payments is less than all but three other states. This is only a very slight improvement over 2016, when New York ranked the third to last with a per capita measurement of -$1,946.
• New Yorkers’ per capita difference between payments made to the Federal government and spending grew slightly to $3,717 more than the national average in 2017 of a positive $1,925.
• Since 2016, the US per capita balance of payment gap has grown by $202, reflecting an increase in Federal spending relative to tax revenue. New York has seen an improvement of $155.
• While New York’s balance of payments has improved, it has not kept pace with the national average. New York’s shortfall compared to the national average continues to expand.

The Federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Acts of 2017 will have a significant impact on high-income earners in New York beginning in 2018, with changes that are expected to have flow-through effects on state tax burdens in New York. What remains less clear for the impact on New York-- and its balance of payment calculations-- is the potential for Federal spending cuts that may be enacted to absorb expected revenue losses and the extent to which those cuts would impact New York. States will be affected very differently depending on the nature of these changes.

Even if the overall distribution of tax burdens and Federal spending does not change dramatically, understanding how the Federal Budget is distributed across the nation and how that distribution has changed over time offers critically important information when evaluating the fairness and appropriateness of proposed changes in fiscal policy.

Rumblings In Western New York-- If The Wave Is Strong Enough...

Only Collins has been arrested so far but Reed sells his votes to fracking interests

The most conservative congressional district in New York (NY-27) isn't one the DCCC thought was winnable. So they ignored it, allowing a progressive who backs Medicare-for-All, Nate McMurray, to win the primary. The Trumpist maniac Chris Collins was arrested, arraigned and released on bail, first saying he had withdrawn from seeking reelection and then deciding the would have a better chance at a plea bargain if he was a sitting member of Congress. So... Collins is running again and suddenly McMurray-- even in an R+11 district that Trump won 60-35%-- is looking like a contender. Even the DCCC, albeit reluctantly-- wound up endorsing a staunch progressive. He's been outraging Collins, while Collins hides out and avoids the media-- and his constituents. Yesterday, the Buffalo News, which normally always endorses incumbents regardless of party, endorsed McMurray.

"McMurray," wrote the editors, "may be aiming high, but he is not without notable accomplishments. They include development of the West River Parkway Trail and the arrival of cashless tolls on Grand Island. And while it’s a big leap from town supervisor to Congress, McMurray, a Democrat running in the state’s most Republican district, has pledged to find “core common values” with other members and to reflect voters’ concerns. By itself, Collins’ indictment renders him unsuitable. But even before the indictment, his reckless mingling of his private business with his public duties was troubling. And his push to eliminate New Yorkers’ deduction for state and local taxes was baffling and outrageous. He was so wed to ideological mumbo jumbo that he chose to hurt his constituents and all of New York. This may be one of the hottest congressional races but the decision should be easy. McMurray is the better choice."

There's another western New York district the DCCC thought unwinnable, NY-23, the district that Trump won 54.5-39.7% and stretches across the Southern Tier from the exurbs west of Binghampton to Ithaca and the Finger Lakes region, through Emira, Corning, Hornell, Olean, and Jamestown all the way to Lake Erie. The PVI is R+6 and the incumbent is Republican Tom Reed, who tries to portray himself as a "moderate" though his voting record is that of a pure Trump rubber-stamp. In the 2016 primaries, Hillary lost every county; this was pure Bernie country, making it even more unpalatable to the DCCC.

Tracy Mitrano narrowly won her primary and didn't seem to be making any noise, at least not nationally, until the last couple of weeks when she started gaining on Reed. As of the September 30 FEC reporting deadline, Reed had raised $3,219,777 to Mitrano's $1,037,942, not too much of a disparity for a Democrat to win in an anti-red wave cycle. Although No Labels spent $144,162 bolstering Reed, there has been no other significant outside money spent in the race so far. If Mitrano wins, it will be one of those, "who could have guessed?" results.

The only public poll shows Reed beating Mitrano 49-47%, though FiveThirtyEight has decided she only has a 1 in 6 chance of winning (17.3%).

Closer to the ground, the Buffalo News is less certain. The paper endorsed Reed but reports that he's less of a sure thing than was once thought. "Recent signs," wrote News reporter Sandra Tan, "suggest the eight-year Republican incumbent has a more serious fight on his hands from Democratic challenger Tracy Mitrano, who counts on support from Democratic and unaffiliated voters to unseat him. The Cook Political Report has added the Reed-Mitrano race to its list of competitive races, changing its position from 'solid' Republican to 'likely' Republican. 'It can't be ignored that Democrat Tracy Mitrano, former Director of IT Policy at Cornell University, raised $855,000 in the third quarter and is on air attacking Reed for voting for a $1.9 trillion tax giveaway for the wealthy,' wrote David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report."

Reed has opted to spend heavily on TV advertising, including a wave of negative campaign ads against his opponent. And, Reed received another Twitter endorsement Monday from President Trump, who tweeted Reed "has done a great job."

Reed remains the favorite to win, though his campaign appears to be taking nothing for granted.

"At the end of the day, Reed can probably count on Trump's popularity and Gov. Andrew Cuomo's unpopularity to keep him secure," Wasserman wrote. "But it's worth watching."

Reed, a Trump supporter, has touted his co-chairmanship of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus to reform the House of Representatives. He has referred to his desire to address the national debt, immigration reform and improvements in district infrastructure, among other issues.

"The job is not done," Reed told the Buffalo News Editorial Board earlier this month. "There’s a lot more work to do."

Reed's TV commercials typically show the smiling congressman touting his family and down-home values, but he has opted to run negative campaign pieces calling Mitrano a "liberal Ithaca extremist" who supports government-controlled health care and "heroin injection sites."

Mitrano called the negative ads by Reed misleading. And the Cook Political Report understated her third quarter fundraising by roughly $100,000, she said.

Mitrano said three-fourths of her contributions come from within the district, which extends across the Southern Tier from Jamestown to Ithaca.

"I think the message is out that Tom Reed has turned his back on this district and neglected his duties," she said.

Aside from enthusiastic Democrats, Mitrano added, she's also gaining support from politically unaffiliated voters who like her focus on education, affordable health care and student debt.

"He’s grasping at straws," she said. "He tries to paint me as someone who’s an extremist, who’s out of touch, and a risky choice. If there’s any extremist in this race, it’s him. He's the one who's out of touch."

Chris Collins (R-NY) Is Really Bad-- And Out On Bail-- But You Can Support Nate McMurray Without Even Thinking About Collins' Unsuitability

For the past decade, the DCCC has been wrong about one of their most basic tenets-- to win in red districts candidates have to go-- or be-- GOP-lite. This has proven a disastrous, failed policy but one the DCCC has dug in on. This cycle, for example, nearly every single candidate they recruited and nearly every single candidate they are supporting with money is a New Dem or Blue Dog from the Republican wing of the party. The only reason to vote for almost any of them is... Trump. Their recruits are, literally, almost all putrid. One candidate they didn't recruit and who is anything but putrid, is Nate McMurray, the progressive Democrat running in western New York (NY-27), a district too red for the DCCC to have bothered to insert one of their repulsive GOP-lite candidates. (Virtually every worthwhile candidate running is either from that kind of a district-- one the DCCC ignored-- or who jumped in on their own and won the primary.) Anyway, over the weekend the editorial board of the Rupert Murdoch-owned New York Post, a right-wing paper, announced their congressional endorsements for 10 districts in New York and New Jersey. For all the DCCC's efforts to recruit especially vile New Dems and Blue Dogs, the only Democrat endorsed by the Post was for PROGRESSIVE Nate McMurray. Ironically, The Post denigrated all the DCCC GOP-lite recruits, from right-wing NRA-loving Blue Dog Anthony Brindisi, who the Post referred to as "a typical liberal Democrat," and Wall Street owned New Dem incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney to clueless militaristic New Dems like Mikie Sherrill and Tom Malinowski. On the other hand, this is what the crazy right-wing Murdoch paper told their readers to do about NY-27:

The one Democrat to win The Post’s backing is Nate McMurray. Not that we find him so impressive, but he’s running against Rep. Chris Collins, who’s under federal indictment for securities fraud and in­sider trading. After first agreeing to drop out, Collins changed his mind and plainly means to use the seat as a chip in plea-bargaining, just as Staten Island’s Michael Grimm did. Again, voters should return the incumbent’s contempt. Republicans can try to retake the seat in 2020.

I guess Medicare-For-All isn't what they liked about Nate. But voters he talks to about it are starting to come around.

Chris Collins was the first member of Congress to endorse Trump-- and there's virtually no one in Congress who has been more of a rubber-stamp. The second member of Congress to endorse Trump was Duncan Hunter. I'm embarrassed to say that I can't remember which one of them was arrested by the FBI and indicted first. The dates were very close, so it hardly matters Collins and Hunter were both indicted on a myriad of unrelated corruption charges.

The odds are a lot better than 538 forecasts

The corruption issue is why even The Post endorsed Nate. The anti-corruption planks of Nate's platform are resonating with voters in a big way, especially because of Collins' impending trial (2020) or-- more likely, plea-bargain. Meanwhile, Nate's Clean up Corruption Plan is going over very well. "Corruption on both sides of the aisle is all too familiar to the people of Western New York, from Chris Collins’ recent indictment for insider trading and lying to the FBI to the guilty pleas of former Erie Democratic Chair Steve Pigeon. Elected officials," he wrote, "should work on behalf of the people they represent and no one else-- not corporate boards, not special interests, their constituents. It’s that simple. We know the consequences of a man like Mr. Collins all too well in this region: their greed robs us as taxpayers and their betrayal undermines our faith in democracy. It is the antithesis of public service. In Congress, I will fight for this to limit special interests’ influence on our leaders and elections. We deserve better.” This is an outline of the plan he's been sharing with NY-27 voters:

Political Corruption by Nancy Ohanian

• Enact far stricter limits on political contributions from special interests, lobbyists and wealthy special interests. Nate has voluntarily imposed  a ban on corporate PAC money for his campaign, but this should be the law for all candidates.
• Prohibit Members of Congress from sitting on for-profit corporate boards.
• Pass tougher campaign finance laws and more transparent disclosures of outside political spending.
• Overturn the disastrous Citizens United decision, which opened the floodgates for unlimited, untraceable spending in our elections.

As you'd expect, Nate has funded his campaign the right way. Nearly 6,000 different people contributed to his campaign in the last three months. More than 4,600 of them gave $50 or less. In fact, the average donation was under $70. Good fodder for debates, right? Yeah-- and maybe that's partially why Collins keeps skipping out on them-- and why he refuses to sit down with the media for any interviews. A few days ago they were supposed to do a forum at SUNY Geneseo and-- par for the course-- Collins was a no-show.

Nate remarked that "If Chris Collins doesn’t show up for the voters now, how can they believe he’d show up for them in Congress? We already know the answer-- he hasn’t. And he won’t. He was arrested by President Trump’s justice department for insider trading, he’s out on bail, he’s using his position as member of Congress to stay out of prison, and he doesn’t want anyone to ask him about it. After the forum, voters came up to me to say 'we’re so glad you came. Chris Collins never comes here.' They know that country is more important than party and they deserve a representative who works every day to protect Medicare and Social Security, fights for farmers and supports small businesses."

Nate has been crisscrossing the district all year talking to voters and holding public events. He’s pledged to hold one town hall per month once elected. The only opportunity anyone has to hear from Collins is via his poisonous and deceitful TV ads against Nate. Unless you're a fat cat donor, you don't get to see him in person.

On Monday, Joseph Spector at the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: broke the news that the race-- which the DCCC had originally written off as unwinnable-- is now a dead-heat.

I usually warn readers that the NY Times-Siena polls are worthless and that they don't give any real indiction about who's going to win. They just don't know how to poll in races outside New York. But they do know how to poll New York and their polls are worth considering in the New York state races. The new one they just released for NY-27 stunned many political observers. The district has a daunting R+11 PVI, Obama lost it both times and Trump trounced Hillary 59.7% to 35.2%, her worst performance-- by far-- in any New York district. But Nate, a progressive, is no Hillary Clinton and it's worth remembering that Bernie won the district handily in the 2016 primary.

In the new poll, the candidates are within the margin of error-- Collins with46% and McMurray with 43%, although only Collins was up on TV during the polling. The poll also found that Collins has a 37% favorability rating with 49% unfavorable rating, compared to a favorabilty rating of 32% for McMurray who has a 21% unfavorable and still needs to get better known. You can contribute to his campaign by clicking on the Blue America 2018 congressional thermometer on the right. It will help to get his name and his message out to more voters in this largely rural district.

“The indicted incumbent, who only recently reignited his campaign after initially suspending it, ekes out a small advantage over his challenger,” Siena College poll spokesman Steven Greenberg said in a statement.

“Republican Collins holds a narrow three-point lead over Democrat McMurray in a district that has more than 40,000 more Republicans than Democrats."

The district favored Republicans maintaining control of the House by 18 percentage points, but was split over Collins and McMurray, the poll said.

While McMurray was supported by nearly three-quarters of Democrats, Collins has the support of 19 percent of them, Greenberg said.

However, McMurray did better than Collins with the opposite party, with nearly one-quarter of Republicans backing McMurray, the poll found.

“Collins is well known but not particularly well liked," Greenberg said.

"Only Republicans view him favorably, and that’s not overwhelming at 48-35 percent. In fact, one of every eight Collins voters views him unfavorably."

Conversely, Republicans approved of President Donald Trump by 74 percent to 17 percent.

Collins was charged with giving insider information about a pharmaceutical company to his son, who then allegedly sold off shares before the news became public. The case isn't set for trial until 2020.

Ready for some more irony? Murdoch and his editorial board aren't the only Republicans backing Nate. There's now an official Republicans For Nate organization helping to flip voters-- and that's without Nate going all GOP-lite on us. Nate: "From the beginning, our campaign has been about the values of this region, economic fairness and integrity. My commitment was never to any one party, it was always to families like mine, and hardworking folks worried about healthcare and social security, wanting a system that works for them, knowing we deserve better than a member of Congress out on bail. I may not agree with everyone on every issue, but I promise to listen and truly represent the people of this region. If you believe in America First, that means you also believe that party has to come second-- and that should be true for Democrats or Republicans. I’m humbled by the support of such hardworking patriots who know we need to put country over party... Voters from all backgrounds can’t run away fast enough from Chris Collins. Every day I meet more regular folks who believe in putting country over party. They’re sick of the fighting, sick of being lied to, and embarrassed to be represented by a man out on bail. Voters are smarter than Mr. Collins gives them credit for... We don’t all agree on every issue, but I will always listen and truly represent the people of our region."

Founded by Cecily Molak, Republicans for Nate has steering committee members from across the district who will lead outreach to their fellow Republicans on behalf of Nate. They include Theron Howard, a former town supervisor from Pavilion, as well as veterans and GOP activists.  Since the August indictment, national and local Republicans have been turning their back on Collins. Paul Ryan stripped him of all his committee assignments and the NRCC said they would "not give a dime" to this race. And the House Ethics Committee voted unanimously to investigate him.

Molak, who's from the eastern part of the district in Monroe County: "When I voted for Chris Collins in the 2016 election, I had no idea that a few months later I’d be filing a complaint against him with the Office of Congressional Ethics. I didn’t know that he’d sold us out to make himself, his family and his friends even richer. We have a right to demand that our government officials act ethically and in our interests. I’m convinced Nate McMurray will do just that. I’m voting for Nate in November, and so are almost all my Republican friends."

Charles Brown of South Wales, a longtime Republican who joined the steering committee, said he's "disgusted with Chris Collins and the way he’s enabled a national agenda I just can’t agree with. I watch what Nate has done on Grand Island, using practical experience, hard work and intelligence to bring growth and opportunity to his constituents. Nate has integrity and toughness. We need smart minds and fresh approaches to the old problems that the current tired old bunch in Washington refuse to do anything about. In my mind, Nate McMurray is the man for the job.”

Theron Howard, the former two-term Town Supervisor from Pavilion, NY said that he had crossed over to back a progressive Democrat because he "realized that there is no Republican candidate for New York’s 27th congressional seat that I could in good conscience vote for. Rather than allow my absence from the polls to, in effect, give a vote for the status quo, I took a close look at Nate McMurray. I was immediately impressed with what I saw. He embodies the qualities we want for our elected officials and is not afraid to come out and meet with the people he seeks to represent. He is tuned in to the issues that are important to all of us and not just a privileged few. He has my unqualified support and I urge everyone to carefully consider our options on November 6th, forget about blurred party lines, and vote for Nate McMurray for truly quality representation in Congress.”

Alan Knight (USAF Ret) lives in Canandaigua, also in the eastern part of the district. He explained that "Just because I’m a Republican doesn’t mean I’ll vote for a criminal. I met Nate at a roundtable with veterans like myself. He took the time to listen to us and pledged to continue to meet with us and address the concerns of the veterans community in Congress."

See what I mean about how wrong the DCCC is about insisting their candidates run as inauthentic GOP-lite-- or, worse, as authentic GOP-lite.

New York Primaries

Zephyr and Bernie

The polls close in New York at 9 tomorrow... so there's nothing left to do but vote if you can-- and to sit back and watch the returns come in. I'll update this post as they do. Remember, these are state races, not federal primaries, which already happened.

The big ones tomorrow night are the gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial races, the AG race and the state Senate races. The first two are very clear. The villains are Andrew Cuomo and Kathy Hochul. He's corrupt beyond reason-- basically a conservative-- and she's basically a Republican with a "D" next to her name. Progressives Cynthia Nixon and New York City Councilman Jumaane Williams are running on full-bore progressive planks. The whole panoply of garbage status quo politicians has come out to back Cuomo, from Schumer, Gillibrand and Biden to Hillary and DNC chair Tom Perez. Bernie didn't endorse in that race but he did endorse Jumaane. The NY Times, the Working Families Party, Our Revolution, and all the state reform organizations endorsed him as well. Everyone in politics for corruption endorsed Hochul.

Who endorsed Nixon? Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Working Familes Party, DFA, Justice Democrats, PCCC, The Nation and all the reform groups. Don't expect any miracles tomorrow-- or it would actually take a miracle. The last poll I saw had Cuomo beating her 63-22%; probably not accurate. Maybe voters think he's his father. Cuomo has blanketed the sate with close to $10 million in TV ads-- in just the final 3 weeks.

The race where Blue America attempted to concentrate our efforts was for Attorney General, where progressive champion Zephyr Teachout-- also endorsed by Bernie-- is running against a couple of worthless status quo galoots, conservaDem Sean Patrick Maloney and Cuomo candidate (Cuomo doesn't want to be investigated by Teachout) Letitia James. Besides Cuomo she is being backed by the wretched EMILY's List and a gaggle of establishment politicians, including Crowley and outright crooks like Greg Meeks. Zephyr was endorsed by both the NY Times and the Daily News, Alexandria, Cynthia Nixon, Shaun King, Ithaca Mayor Svante Myrick, Our Revolution, The Nation, and the Buffalo News-- but by no one who fears the wrath of Cuomo.

No one endorsed Maloney-- not a single one of his congressional colleagues... just one national gay organization, a gay version of EMILY's List.

And then there's the state Senate and the progressive hopes of ousting right-wing IDC creeps who caucus with the Republicans and prevent progressive legislation from moving forward. There are 9 key challenges tomorrow. These (incumbent villains first, good guys afterwards):

• 11th (Queens)- Tony Avella, John Liu
• 13th (Queens)- José Peralta, Jessica Ramos
• 17th (Brooklyn)- Simcha Felder, Blake Morris
• 20th (Brooklyn)- Jesse Hamilton, Zellnor Myrie
• 23rd (north State Island, Brooklyn)- Diane Savino, Jasmine Robinson
• 31st (Manhattan- West Side)- Marisol Alcantara, Robert Jackson
• 34th (Bronx)- Jeff Klein, Alessandra Biaggi
• 38th (Rockland Co)- David Carlucci, Julie Goldberg
• 53rd (Syracuse)- David Valesky, Rachel May

I bolded the candidates endorsed by Blue America. Below is a last minute plea from Alexandria to her New York supporters:

We already knew that New York machine politics were toxic-- every day, they prevent working class folks from participating in our democratic system, stifle public input, and dash people’s faith in the power of our democracy to answer their concerns.

But their toxicity and divisiveness has reached new levels, just days before the New York State Primary.

'Here’s the situation: Just a few days ago, the New York State Democratic Party sent out a mailer for Andrew Cuomo-- a mailer that claimed Cynthia Nixon was anti-semitic based on policy positions she does not hold.

A public outcry ensued. Party leaders claimed that no one had authorized the mailer, and still refuse to tell voters who authored the mailer, or explain why they received it in the first place. But that doesn’t matter, because the damage is done-- it doesn't matter how blatantly false they are, those attacks are going to be the last thing in many voters minds as they head to the polls on Thursday.

...Instead of using these party resources to help register new voters, or hosting events to engage the community, the resources of the New York State Democratic Party went towards helping one Democrat attack another Democrat in a contested primary. Does that sound right to you?

All of this just goes to show that despite our incredible primary win, the corrupt New York political machine is still alive and kicking. That’s why we need to continue to fight, and help elect progressive champions that buck establishment politics, and focus on running grassroots, people-powered campaigns.

...A future where machine politics are gone for good is possible-- but no one is going to hand it to us. If we want a progressive future where candidates stand for the interests of working class communities, then we have to build it ourselves.

I’m ready.

Are you?

Pa'lante,
Alexandria

Crooked Republican Chris Collins Is Suddenly Retiring After All

Early this morning, pre-dawn, NBC News predicted that Chris Collins' political career is unlikely to survive his indictment. "In vowing to remain on the ballot for his re-election race this fall-- despite facing insider trading charges-- New York Republican Rep. Chris Collins joins a not-so-exclusive club of lawmakers who have refused to resign even after being indicted," they wrote. "Unfortunately for Collins, members of that club almost always meet an unhappy fate. Most lawmakers in a similar situation initially vowed to fight, but wound up quickly caving in to bad press and resigning. A handful managed to win re-election only to have to give up the seat later after being convicted."

It was only a matter of a couple of hours before Collins posted the tweet up top. He starts out with a typically deranged Collinsesque statement blaming everyone but himself for his troubles-- the Democrats, Pelosi, a desire to impeach Trump, even on Nate McMurray, his mild-mannered electoral opponent. "Democrats are laser focused on taking back the House, electing Nancy Pelosi Speaker and then launching impeachment proceedings against President Trump. They would like nothing more than to elect an 'Impeach Trump' Democrat in this District, which is something that neither our country or my party can afford."

But then... exactly what NBC had predicted: "After extensive discussions with my family and my friends over the last few days, I have decided that it is in the best interests of the constituents of NY-27, the Republican Party and President Trump’s agenda for me to suspend my campaign for re-election to Congress.  I will fill out the remaining few months of my term to assure that our community maintains its vote in Congress to support President Trump’s agenda to create jobs, eliminate regulations, reduce the size of government, address immigration and lower taxes. I will also continue to fight the meritless charges brought against me and I look forward to having my good name cleared of any wrongdoing." Bye-bye, asshole. And, of course, Ryan should force him to step down now.

Technically, it's too late for Collins to withdraw from the race and the state laws to get his name off the ballot and replace him with some candidate party bosses will pick are very complex. Think back to what happened in Florida when Mark Foley was caught molesting young boys and tried-- and failed-- to get his name off the ballot. The Republican candidate had to run with Foley's name. He lost. According to The Hill there has been a great deal of pressure on Collins to step down.

While Ryan and his GOP leadership team did not publicly call for Collins to step down, GOP sources said there was a “behind-the-scenes” effort in both Washington and New York to convince the defiant congressman that resignation was the best thing for the party three months before the crucial midterm elections.

In the days since Collins’s indictment and arrest Wednesday, there were a flurry of text messages and phone calls between Republican lawmakers, Capitol Hill aides, strategists and lobbyists concerned that the Collins corruption case could put his ruby-red seat at risk and harm other vulnerable Republicans on the ballot, GOP sources said.

Some of these Republicans in Washington had been urging New York Republicans to personally appeal to Collins to resign, the sources said, making the case to him that he’s in an “untenable position.”

The pressure campaign took place mostly out of public view. Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) have been silent on the matter.

“No one is above the law, but Chris deserves his day in court and we will wait to see what unfolds,” said New York GOP Chairman Ed Cox.

But one former Collins supporter, David Gunner, the highway superintendent of East Aurora in Collins’s district, circulated a public letter to his fellow New York Republicans on Friday calling on the former Erie County executive to quit Congress.

“I believe Collins has done good things for Erie County and our Congressional District. Many times, he’s made us proud. But this insider trading scandal has put our district in real peril,” Gunner wrote. “If he runs, I don’t think he can win. I don’t care how much money he has, he can’t buy this seat-- the good people of NY-27 won’t stand for it.”

In his open letter, Gunner argued that if Collins continued to remain on the Nov. 6 ballot, he would be a drag on GOP candidates down ballot, including state Assemblyman Ray Walter and local office holders. Nationally, the Collins controversy could cause Republicans to lose control of the House majority, Gunner said.

The charges against Collins’s son were considered important leverage to convincing the congressman to relinquish his seat, said one New York Republican source. Collins could strike a deal with prosecutors, offering to plead guilty in exchange for his son and Zarsky avoiding jail time.

“A natural conversation between the U.S. attorney and Collins’s attorneys is to go easy on the son and father in law if Collins resigns,” the New York source said. “I’m sure that’s a conversation that is going on right now.”

NY-27 wasn't a district the Democrats were counting on as a pick-up opportunity. The PVI is a daunting R+11 and Trump beat Hillary here, 59.7% to 35.2%. Because it wasn't on their radar, the DCCC didn't bother contesting Nate McMurray's campaign with a Republican-lite candidate as they did in other upstate New York primaries. McMurray, a town supervisor from Grand Island, is also the Working Families Party candidate and boasts a strong progressive issues page on his website that includes support for Medicare-for-All, marijuana legalization, bold action on Climate Change, women's Choice, DACA, "increased restrictions on assault weapons," etc.

The corrupt Democratic establishment has not been interested in a progressive reformer like McMurray. The DCCC has refused to take his calls and Governor Andrew Cuomo has urged him to step down and make way for his very right-of-center lieutenant governor, Kathy Hochul. On Wednesday, McMurray said more contributions flowed into his campaign than in the entire cycle.


UPDATE:

Apparently, fringe lunatic racist and millionaire vanity candidate, Carl Paladino, is going to mount a write-in campaign and some other right-wing guy, Stefan Mychajliw, also wants to run. More Republicans are expected to jump into the fray.