Midterms in New Jersey: "It’s All About Stopping Trump"

The video above is how most New Jersey voters got to know Jim Keady. Now he's running for Congress, in the district Republican Chris occupies.

Chris Smith (R-NJ) is an anti-Choice fanatic; other than that, though-- and I emphasize FANATIC-- he seems as much a moderate Democrat as a Republican. His voting record is a lot like New Jersey Blue Dog's Josh Gottheimer. He's been representing the 4th district since 1980. The district is mostly made up of Monmouth County but includes some of Ocean and some of Mercer as well. It starts on the east side of Trenton heads northeast to Middletown, Red Bank and Neptune and southeast to Manchester Township and Lakewood. It was Trump's (and Romney's) best-performing district in New Jersey, largely because of a huge community of very right-wing Orthodox Russian Jews (and human organ traders) in Lakewood. The district has the worst PVI in the state, R+8, a point worse than it was in 2017.

Nationally, June 5 is a huge primary day. Going to the polls to pick candidates for November will be some states with incredibly important contests-- New Jersey, as well as California, New Mexico and Iowa. In NJ-04 there are two Democrats competing--Jim Keady, a proven progressive Berniecrat, and some right-of-center carpetbagger the DCCC is pushing, Josh Welle, who seems to be running a campaign that says, "I'm just like Chris Smith" but without the anti-Choice fanaticism. The only political contribution I could find for Welle was when he was still living in Arlington, Virginia a few months ago and he contributed to right-wing Democrat ("ex"-Republican) Joseph Kopser in Austin, Texas.

Dan Jacobson, a former Democratic Assemblyman now publishes the TriCity News in the district and he posted a recent OpEd he wrote about the NJ-04 race , calling out the notoriously corrupt Monmouth County Democratic Party machine. They had a convention last weekend and endorsed "endorsed a boring establishment candidate-- a carpetbagger who just moved up here from Virginia-- to run against Republican Congressman Chris Smith." Jacobson wasn't surprised and he wasn't happy.

Fiery progressive Jim Keady, a former Asbury Park Councilman, came up short. Yet he still showed significant support among the delegates. Now he will take on the machine by running in the June Democratic primary against organization-backed candidate Josh Welle, a mutant who’s decided this is his time to be a Congressman.

(Hilariously, this Publisher was barred by the Monmouth County Democratic Chairman from voting at the mini-Convention, even though I was eligible to do so as a former Democratic Assemblyman back in 1990-91. Apparently, I haven’t been a loyal enough Democrat, as-- shocking!-- I’ve publicly endorsed some Republicans in these pages, while skewering some assholes who are Democrats. Hey, now I know how the Bernie Sanders people felt!)

Although conventional wisdom says Smith is unbeatable in this Republican district, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added it to its list of targeted races. For there is an outside shot to win.

At least for now, I am a Democrat in good standing-- as the Monmouth County Democratic Party by-laws would describe me since I voted in the last two Democratic primaries over my revulsion at our Jackass-in-Chief. In reality, though, I’m a right-of-center voter. I tend to vote a bit more Republican.

Not now. I’m not voting for any Republicans. We need at least one house of Congress in Democratic hands to investigate Trump and expose him for the fraud he is. The end game for this voter is for Trump not to be on the ballot again, so people like me can vote for a Republican if we so choose. In other words, so the country has a sane choice.

That means contesting every seat in the House of Representatives with even a remote chance for the Democrats. That now includes Chris Smith’s seat. On social issue, I agree with Keady on everything, but on economic issues we part ways. He was a Bernie Sanders guy before people around here even knew who Bernie Sanders was. I think all that left-wing shit they espouse-- while wonderful if it could work-- is economic nonsense. Just ask the next Venezuelan you meet.

But that’s not important now. It’s all about stopping Trump. And Keady is clearly the best choice for this long-shot race precisely because he is a Bernie Sanders progressive. The best way to beat Smith is for an unprecedented turnout among Democrats. Keady can fire them up. Meanwhile, organization-backed candidate/carpetbagger Josh Welle says flat out that his strategy is to win over moderates and Republicans. I say it won’t work. Welle may be a Navy veteran — thank you for your service-- but he’s a pretty lackluster campaigner. Seems like a typical ambitious politician to me, who’s typically uninspiring. Too canned.

Keady is a total animal who’s been consumed with progressive social justice issues since I first met him almost 15 years ago. He’s the real deal. By running in the primary, Keady will now get to put his theory to the test about his ability to uniquely boost Democratic turnout.

In New Jersey, it is extremely rare to win a primary without party organization backing. Josh Welle will now appear in the “organization” column on the Democratic primary ballot. The few people who bother to vote in such primaries blindly go down the organization column, as there’s rarely a serious challenger.

Keady, though, has some things going for him. This is a Republican district which means there’s even less Democrats there than usual. The turnout will be particularly light with no other high profile Democratic primary fights on the ballot, like for President or Governor. Keady can potentially reach this relatively small number of voters. And as a rule, the relatively few Democrats in a heavily Republican area like this tend to be the more hard-core believers in the party.

A Bernie Sanders progressive, running against a triangulating moderate like Josh Welle, can appeal to those true believing Democrats who’d vote in a primary. I’m not saying Keady can pull it off. Right now, it’s likely he won’t.

But it’s also not impossible. In fact, I’ve always thought Keady’s path to victory — and flipping this seat for the Dems-- is to indeed lose the Monmouth Democratic Party convention, and then beat the party organization in a stunning primary upset.

That would be a big deal in the political community in the state, and the national progressive movement. That will attract Jim Keady a lot more attention and support than just winning the party endorsement and cruising though the primary. Local supporters will be even more fired up. In other words, if Keady’s theory is right that his brand of progressive politics can trigger an epic Dem turnout in this district, he has the chance to prove it by winning a huge upset in the Democratic primary.

CUFF The Blue Dogs, CUFF The New Dems-- The Democratic Party Doesn't Need A Republican Wing

Blue Dogs and New Dems are, by nature, addicted to corruption

A Democratic operative texted me yesterday that he could smell another conservative shill the DCCC was preparing to unleash, Joshua Welle. "It's like he just rolled down the conveyor belt at DCCC shitty candidate factory they have in the basement at 430 South Capitol St." Let me guess, I replied, another centrist veteran? "Bingo!" Welle is the 3rd Democrat who wants to take on moderate Republican Chris Smith-- moderate on everything but Choice, which he opposes... with hysteria. NJ-04 may have been relatively swingy but the R+7 PVI of 2016 is now an R+8. Obama's 45% losses in 2008 and 2012 turned into a rout against Hillary, who lost to Trump with just 41%. The district is a mess for Democrats. Low consciousness Democrats gave Hillary big wins against Bernie in each of the 3 counties, Monmouth, Mercer and Ocean and then the two with most of the votes, Momouth and Ocean went strongly for Trump. Democrats would probably have better shots taking out Leonard Lance, Rodney Frelinghuysen. Tom MacArthur and maybe Frank LoBiondo than in defeating Smith. But Welle (and the DCCC) seem to think Democrats are too stupid to notice Welle's right-of-center orientation and that he can pick up disenchanted Republicans because he's a vet and a businessman. How lame a strategy is that? It's the core of how the DCCC has lost-- and keeps losing-- Congress.

Over the last couple of weeks the Blue Dogs and the New Dems, the two organizations that make up the Republican wing of the Democratic Party inside Congress, have announced their first batch of conservative candidates they're helping run in primaries (with help from the DCCC). Some of the candidates on the list have called me to either give me a heads up or to make excuses. Some claimed not to know anything about the organization that had just endorsed them, although they applied for the endorsement and-- at least in the case of the New Dems-- they have to sit down for an interview. And neither group takes just anyone. If they don't sense a "tolerance" for corruption and an innate conservatism, they don't endorse.

What I've tried to explain over and over is that the Republican wing of the Democratic Party is why there was no public option in ObamaCare. It had ZERO to do with the Republicans; it was 100% New Dems and Blue Dogs. When Ryan or McCarthy boasts that some crap bill-- like yesterday's CUFF Act-- passed with a bipartisan majority, they mean all the Republicans and a handful from the New Dems and the Blue Dogs. In fact, why don't we talk about the Control Unlawful Fugitive Felons Act (CUFF). It's Kristi Noam's bill-- co-sponsored bt right-wing crackpot Pete Sessions (R-TX) and yesterday it passed the House 244-171. All the Republicans-- other than 3 libertarian-oriented members-- voted for it and all the Democrats opposed it-- except for 21 of the usual suspects from the Republican wing of the party. Here were yesterday's aisle crossers:

• Ami Bera (New Dem-CA)
• Brendan Boyle (PA)
• Cheri Bustos (Blue Dog-IL)
• Lou Correa (Blue Dog-CA)
• Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX)
• Josh Gottheimer (Blue Dog-NJ)
• Bill Keating (New Dem-MA)
• Ron Kind (New Dem-WI)
• Dan Lipinski (Blue Dog-IL)
• Dave Loebsack (IA)
• Stephen Lynch (MA)
• Stephanie Murphy (Blue Dog-FL)
• Tom O'Halleran (Blue Dog-AZ)
• Jimmy Panetta (CA)
• Colin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN)
• Jacky Rosen (NV)
• Raul Ruiz (CA)
• Kurt Schrader (Blue Dog-OR)
• Kyrsten Sinema (Blue Dog-AZ)
• Tom Suozzi (NY)
• Eric Swalwell (CA)

New Hampshire Congresswoman Carol Shea Porter, who explains every vote she takes to her constituents, said she couldn't "vote for this bill because it would take Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits away from tens of thousands of elderly people and people with mental health issues or disabilities because they have outdated or dormant warrants that, in the majority of cases, law enforcement does not pursue. Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal says: ‘Despite the title of the bill, the seniors and people with severe disabilities who would be harmed by this bill are not felons, as the Chairman acknowledged at our markup."

Her office provided some background to a bill 168 Democrats voted against and 21 from the Republican wing of the party backed:

The Social Security Administration (SSA) is currently restricted from distributing any Social Security payments to those otherwise eligible if they are considered “fleeing felons.” Court cases helped settle the definition of what constituted a “crime of flight” in 2009 and 2010. Since that time, SSA has withheld benefits from those “fleeing to avoid prosecution, or custody or confinement after conviction” for a felony or violating a condition of probation or parole.

The CUFF Act would return to an older, outdated definition for “fleeing felons” that would effectively cut off tens of thousands of Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients with outdated or dormant warrants that law enforcement generally does not pursue.  This change applies to SSI only, not to Social Security’s retirement or disability programs. SSI is a means tested federal income supplement primarily designed to help very low income older, blind, and disabled Americans meet basic needs for food, clothing, and shelter.  As such, this change would directly impact the most vulnerable.

This is a fact that even the bill’s proponents have acknowledged. According to Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal: “Despite the title of the bill, the seniors and people with severe disabilities who would be harmed by this bill are not felons, as the Chairman acknowledged at our markup. They are people who have been accused of a felony, or accused of a parole of probation violation. They have not been tried or convicted of the offense underlying the warrant. In many instances, they are not even accused of committing a felony, as probation can result from a misdemeanor offense alone.”

This is an example-- there's usually more than one every week-- of why Democrats should not vote for Blue Dogs and New Dems, at least not in primaries, no matter how much they curse Trump.