Votes Are Coming In And Trump Will Probably Be Stealing The White House Silverware On His Way Out

 

In 2016, Trump beat Hillary in Montana 279,240 (56.17%) to 177,709 (35.75%). Trump won 50 of Montana's 56 counties. According to a just-released poll from Montana State University, no one should expect anything like that in November. Trump is leading 51-44%, which shows Trump doing much worse than he did 4 years ago and Biden doing significantly better than Hillary. But the much better news for Democrats is that Democrat Steve Bullock is leading Trumpist incumbent Steve Daines 49-47% among likely voters. The poll shows Bullock receiving 97% of support from Democrats compared to Daines’ 88% from Republicans. Another 67% of independent voters also said they preferred Bullock, compared to 29% for Daines.

This is bad news for Trump, even if he wins Montana's 3 electoral votes. Biden doesn't need them nearly as much as he needs Bullock in the Senate instead of a toady like Daines. The poll shows Bullock with a 60% job approval rating compared to Daines' 55% and Trump's 51%.

Moving over to Texas, it's noteworthy that despite Gov. Abbott and the GOP trying to hold down voting, the first day of early voting saw over a million Texans line up and vote, a state record. Some waited on lines for hours, part of the GOP voter suppression program.

Early voting in Florida is also through the roof. "Republicans," wrote Marc Caputo, "typically hold a slight edge in absentee ballot returns in Florida elections. But this year, there’s been a stunning development.cFor the first time ever at this stage of a general election, Democrats here are outvoting Republicans-- and by a mammoth 384,000-vote margin through Tuesday... As of Tuesday, Democrats accounted for almost 51 percent of the nearly 1.8 million ballots cast so far. Republicans had cast about 520,000 ballots, or about 29 percent of the total. The remaining 20 percent of the ballots mailed in so far have been cast by independent voters who have no party affiliation or belong to minor third parties. The preference of these independent voters is harder to gauge, but polls suggest Biden is winning them. In addition, according to an internal analysis by Florida’s Democratic Party, its models show that 31 percent of those independent voters who have already cast ballots look like Democratic voters because their age and race more closely correlate with Biden voters; only 11 percent look like Trump voters."

Trump is leading by a polling average of 4.4 points in Texas but he's losing Florida by 2.7 points in an average that includes a phony-baloney poll from Republican operatives pretending to be pollsters (Trafalgar). A poll from Quinnipiac last week showed Trump losing by 11 points in Florida, with Biden kicking his lard ass 51-40%.

Yesterday the Washington Post reporters Amy Gardner and Elise Viebeck wrote that "With less than three weeks to go before Nov. 3, roughly 15 million Americans have already voted in the fall election, reflecting an extraordinary level of participation despite barriers erected by the coronavirus pandemic-- and setting a trajectory that could result in the majority of voters casting ballots before Election Day for the first time in U.S. history... The picture is so stark that election officials around the country are reporting record early turnout, much of it in person, meaning that more results could be available on election night than previously thought.

So far, much of the early voting appears to be driven by heightened enthusiasm among Democrats. Of the roughly 3.5 million voters who have cast ballots in six states that provide partisan breakdowns, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 2 to 1, according to a Washington Post analysis of data in Florida, Iowa, Maine, Kentucky, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

...[T]he early numbers are proving to be larger than even Democrats predicted. Three out of four voters in Pennsylvania who have returned their ballots, for instance, are registered Democrats. In increasingly Democratic Virginia, where early voting began in September with hours-long lines in suburban Washington, nearly 1.7 million voters had cast ballots by Wednesday, according to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project-- more than triple the number who voted early or by mail overall in 2016. In Kentucky, nearly 70 percent of mail ballots cast have come from registered Democrats.

In Georgia, so many people were determined to vote in person at the first chance of early voting Monday that they withstood lines that lasted throughout the day. A record 242,000 people voted in the first two days.

...[N]early 40 percent of those who voted Monday in Georgia were Black, and 56 percent were women, according to state election data. Two years ago, when Democrat Stacey Abrams, who is Black, narrowly lost the race for Georgia governor, 34 percent of the electorate was Black, according to U.S. census data. In that election, the share of women who voted was 56 percent, the same as the proportion of early voters now.

“Are you seeing the same thing I’m seeing?” asked one Republican strategist in Georgia who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly, when shown the numbers. “This state is blue.”

Trump came up with an idea he could buy 33 million seniors' votes with a $200 discount card for pharmacies, so he must have been crestfallen yesterday to find out that the cards-- which haven't been approved by Congress and are probably an illegal use of taxpayer money-- will mostly be mailed out after Election Day. Instead, he's openly begging for votes. At one of his super-spreader rallies in Pennsylvania yesterday he said "Suburban women, will be please like me? I saved your damn neighborhood."

The answer is no. Just ask Bette Midler:

In 2016, Trump won voters who lived in the suburbs-- 49% of the total electorate-- by 2 points over Hillary Clinton, according to Pew.

Two years later, the President's party was crushed in the 2018 midterms-- losing control of the House-- thanks in large part to a suburban revolt against Trump. House Democratic candidates won 52% of suburban voters as compared to just 45% for House GOPers.

Unfortunately for Trump-- and down-ballot Republicans-- the 2018 midterms weren't the low ebb for the President in the eyes of suburbanites.

States like Colorado, Pennsylvania, Texas, Georgia and Florida-- where much of the population resides in suburban areas-- have all moved away from Trump over the past few years.

Colorado looks to be out of reach for the President, and his struggles will likely cost Republican Sen. Cory Gardner his seat. Pennsylvania remains a possibility for Trump but his poor performance in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs could be too big a hole for him to dig out of.

Florida, Texas and Georgia are all toss ups at this point, largely due to Trump's underperformance in the suburban areas of the state.

The problem for Trump is that knowing he has a problem in the suburbs and fixing it are two very different things. Trump, as his quote on Tuesday night makes clear, has tried to scare women in the suburbs into voting for him; if Joe Biden wins, he claim with little subtlety, roving gangs of Antifa supporters will invade your suburban paradise.

But female suburban voters aren't buying it. As the New York Times wrote last month, citing polling data in Minnesota and Wisconsin:

"President Trump's effort to court suburban women by promising to protect their neighborhoods is encountering one sizable hitch: Most suburban women say their neighborhoods aren't particularly under threat."

The Conservative Establishment Is Not Going To Save The Planet While They Are Squeezing Cash Out Of The Status Quo-- We Have To Take Matters Into Our Own Hands: Montana

 

Blue America has never endorsed anyone for a state Public Service Commission position before, but progressive state Rep. Tom Woods has proven himself in the Montana state legislature and he's running in a district the size of West Virginia for a position that's more impactful than that of a state legisaltor. As you probbsaly already know if you've been reading DWT, Montana is one of the strangest political landscapes in the West. The state has a million people living in an area that is larger than Germany. That’s an awful lot of dirt between light bulbs. In huge swaths of the state, anybody to the left of Atilla the Hun is a “stinking liberal” and yet Montana has consistently elected Democrats to both Senate seats and the governor’s mansion. That’s because Montanans like to think of themselves as fiercely independent and because they insist they can recognize genuinely good people on their ballot. As a result, progressives can, and do, get elected here, despite an occasional character like Greg Gianforte.

We think that Tom Woods is one of those progressives. For four terms already in the state legislature, he’s "walked the walk." While in office, he consistently took a stand against the big corporations for Montana’s ratepayers… and won. He fought corporate money in state elections…and won. He’s done this because he’s articulate, persistent and strategic in dealing with people on both sides of the aisle. It’s why his colleagues elected him to caucus leadership. It's why we want to ask you to contribute to his campaign by clicking on the thermometer on the right.

Montana has term limits, and Tom is terming out of the House of Representatives. Luckily, he's running for the Public Service Commission (PSC). Not many people pay attention to this race, despite the fact that it is one of the most important choices down the ballot. The PSC regulates utilities and has a huge effect on electricity rates and clean power. The current PSC has been killing clean power projects left and right despite the fact that renewables are cheaper AND cleaner than coal. In the latest 20 year power plan, the PSC had ZERO new solar and wind projects planned. That’s absolutely ridiculous in a state where the sun shines and the wind blows. 

Tom told me "Montana can do so much better. There are three large outdated and expensive carbon burning power stations in Montana that are coming up for contract renewal before 2024. Closing these facilities would reduce our carbon footprint by about 50%. That’s critical. It won’t happen with the current PSC."

Tom is running for Montana’s open district 3 seat on the PSC to make sure that Montana consumers are treated fairly and to make sure that our planet survives. The contrast between Tom and his Republican opponent could hardly be more stark. Tom is a union member who lives, works, and pays utility bills in the district he is running in. His opponent, Jim Brown, doesn’t even live in the district. And that’s just the latest in a long line of Brown’s terrible choices. Jim Brown worked for an anti-union, dark-money group, American Tradition Partnership, supports unlimited campaign spending, and is currently the attorney in the Trump case suing Montana’s governor for allowing mail-in ballots. Tom Woods is the clear choice.

Supporting Tom Woods for Public Service Commission is about taking a stand for progressive values, fairness for working people, and our planet’s future. He’s working his full time job as a Physics instructor. He needs financial support that has to follow finance regulations for Montana races. This meaning the maximum contribution to his campaign is only $180. Bottom line? Tom is running a grassroots campaign, and any little bit you can chip in will make sure he can get the word out before ballots drop in just a week!

There Are Kick-Ass Progressives Everywhere-- And That Includes Montana

 

Aaron Sklar called me up and told me about some extraordinary progressive Montana Democrats a few days ago. I called our old friend, Missoula-area state Rep. Tom Winter to get another opinion and some contact info. Tom was super-enthusiastic and told me that Mary Ann Dunwell is great but in a very tough Trump district and that she needs some help. I called her up. Her answer machine message was so positive and uplifting that it's still reverberating. This photo of her is in front of Helena’s new Equity Fountain that has replaced an old racist Confederate fountain that she worked to dismantle several years ago.

When we talked on the phone, she was as uplifting as her answer machine message! Mary Ann is Bernie-and-Elizabeth-loving three term incumbent in red district (HD-84 in Helena), the kind where the Democratic establishment says only DINOs can win and where they try preventing progressives from even trying. She's running for her fourth term and I asked her how she manages to win there. Her policy priorities include access to health and mental health care, non-discrimination and gender equality, equal pay, living wages and worker rights, social, economic and environmental justice and climate action, public lands, and making sure corporations pay their fair share in taxes for needed public revenues. That's an agenda that should work perfectly anywhere, right? It seems to have worked in Helena. I have a suspicion it's at least in part because of the messenger. She's a dynamo-- in the best sense of the word.

She helped pass Montana’s historic Medicaid Expansion in 2015 and then helped extend it in 2019. She co-sponsored successful legislation to prosecute child sex abusers and sponsored bills for health, mental health and suicide prevention, living wages, affordable housing, fair taxation and public revenue, and climate action. I asked her to share a guest post that would help understand someone with her progressive values can win over voters who are also voting for Trump. It's more like a personal letter than a blog post-- but it certainly gets the point across effectively, doesn't it? Please consider contributing to her campaign by clicking on the 2020 Blue America legislative thermometer on the right. Even small contribution goes a very long way in Montana state House races. And, by the way, in 2016, Bernie won Lewis and Clark County (where HD-84 is) in the primary and then Trump went on to beat Hillary in the general, 16,665 (49.3%) to 14,331 (42.4%). Mary Ann's conservative Trumpist opponent, Charlie Hull, would like to undo Medicaid expansion and healthcare for 1 in 10 Montanans. He’d deny a woman’s right to health choices and reproductive rights and he’d put guns in schools and undo background checks.


A Progressive Montana
Rep. Mary Ann Dunwell

Hi friends, thanks so much for investing your time to check out this post. I’m Mary Ann Dunwell, a progressive state legislator for public benefit and a Green New Deal agenda, swimming upstream in a swing district and rugged individualist, gun-toting anti-mask red state that Trump won by 20%. How do I win, let alone survive? I work. I connect. I serve all Montanans, regardless of party-- all the while moving the needle and changing hearts and minds.

Just this week, I talked with a Republican who almost hung up at first, but soon we were talking about stopping Big Pharma’s price gouging and helping her 2-year old granddaughter who needed life-saving medication for seizures. I made a couple of phone calls and by the end of the day, the medication had been approved. Another conversation was with a school bus diesel mechanic who supports Trump. His fiancé works night shift cleaning a hospital building. I told him about my living wage bills and protections for Montana’s outdoors so he can hunt in a clean and healthful environment. He told me I have his vote.

It was a tight race every time I ran. In 2014, I unseated a two-term powerful Appropriations Committee Republican by 23 votes. In 2016, I won against the same Republican by 124 votes when Trump and Republicans were sweeping the state.

I decided to get into politics in order to pass Medicaid Expansion, which I was instrumental in passing, then extending two sessions later in my position in House Human Services. Medicaid expansion provides one in 10 Montanans with healthcare. While Medicaid expansion helps, it’s really just the beginning of a big health care fix that we sorely need. Pharmaceutical prices must come down, community mental health services must increase, surprise medical bills must stop, and fee for service must become outcome based. Heck, we need Medicare for all. As a country and a people, I encourage us to drop our pursuit of health care for profit. Replace profit with public good. Health care is a human right.

Coronavirus magnifies the deep inequities, disparities, and weaknesses that still exist in our state. Many workers deemed essential are among the lowest paid. Some workers have no paid sick leave, let alone paid family leave. Folks living paycheck to paycheck have no cushion for emergencies and now face dire circumstances. Folks who are housing unstable can’t pay rents or mortgages. And folks who do manage to keep a roof over their heads can’t afford the high cost of health care and medicine. Together, we can bridge those inequities and strengthen our system’s weaknesses. That’s why I’m running to continue serving as state representative for Montana’s House District 84 Helena/East Helena, the Capital City area of our Big Sky state.

Now more than ever, Montanans need strong, courageous leadership that stands up to special interests and serves the needs of all Montanans, especially those who struggle with their health or mental health, or face financial hardship, including paying the high price of medicines. One pharmaceutical company has dropped the monthly cost of insulin to $35 during the pandemic. I want to keep that price low. This is just one example of pandemic policies that I encourage us to continue. My service in the legislature has been about bridging inequities and improving people’s lives. I genuinely care about those I serve. I’ve worked hard with courage, dedication and conviction, and look forward to continuing that hard work if voters have me back for my fourth term. Just like about everything in our lives right now, voting looks different during COVID-19. One thing is certain-- voting is your fundamental right in our democracy. It’s an honor to be a candidate for re-election. It’s an honor that you’re considering supporting my re-election. And I’m grateful. Be safe, strong and healthy. We’re all in this together. We’ll all rise together.

Thank you for your support. Warmly, Mary Ann.

Trump's Scheme To Sell Off Millions Of Acres Of Public Lands Just Came To A Screeching Halt

 

Pendley looks like a crook because he is a crook

Trump has the luxury of a spineless, knee-jerk Republican Senate run by #MoscowMitch, a Senate that has shown that it is willing to confirm a steaming pile of stinking crap if Trump sets one down in front of it... Donald even has some Democraps-- like Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin-- willing to go along for the ride. But some of his nominations-- the undeniable cutthroats and thieves who are beyond just unqualified but who are being put in place to destroy and upend decades of bipartisan policy... well, some of those have even been too much for the Senate. After all, how are Susan Collins, Steve Daines, Dan Sullivan, Thom Tillis and Cory Gardner expected to get reelected if they vote for some of this garbage?

So Trump has been filling executive positions without Senate approval, more so than any other president in history-- and without batting an eye. One of the worst is William Perry Pendley, who Donald made head of Bureau of Land Management, part of the Department of the Interior. Pendley is probably best known in Wyoming where he has been an extremist predatory attorney trying to force the federal government to sell all its lands to corporations. The Democrat running for the open Wyoming Senate seat, Merav Ben-David has been campaigning on a platform that includes "keeping public lands in public hands." Although it was a Montana lawsuit, I asked her how the result is likely to impact Wyoming. She told me that she's a hunter, biker, hiker, and skieër, just like the vast majority of Wyomingites. I know, and Wyomingites know, that we need to protect our public lands and keep them in public hands."

On Friday, in response to a suit by Montana Governor Steve Bullock, U.S. District Judge Brian Morris ruled that Pendley is serving illegally and that he must vacate the position he's held for nearly a year and a half without the Regime asking the Senate to confirm him, which is, after all, something mandated by the constitution. Morris ruled that the Regime's arguments were "evasive and undermine the constitutional system of checks and balances... Under the federal defendant’s theory, a president could ignore their constitutional appointment responsibility indefinitely and instead delegate authority directly or through cabinet secretaries to unconfirmed appointed officials. Such an arrangement could last for an entire presidential administration. In fact, the case before the Court presents that scenario."

After the ruling, Bullock, who is running for the U.S. Senate, said "Today’s ruling is a win for the Constitution, the rule of law, and our public lands." This seems to mean all the decisions Pendley made-- like the land use plan he approved in Montana-- are illegitimate, null and void. The reason Trump hasn't pushed to get Pendley confirmed is because his policies would have certainly ended the political careers of Steve Daines (R-MT), Cory Gardner (R-CO), Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and Martha McSally (R-AZ) if they were forced to vote for him. In Montana, for example, he opened 95% of federal land to oil and gas development, despite pleas from the cattle industry.

Former Arizona State Rep Mark Cardenas, an environmentalist and outdoorsman, wrote last week about the danger Pendley poses for the country-- and particularly for Arizona and the Grand Canyon, which Pendley has been trying to turn into a mining site. Cardenas wrote that "Pendley is an ardent advocate for the disposal and sell-off of public lands. By allowing him to continue leading the Bureau of Land Mannagement, the Trump administration has made it clear that even during a pandemic they will continue to prioritize boosting industry profits over protecting our communities’ health and iconic landmarks like the Grand Canyon from harmful uranium mining."

Growing up in Arizona, I spent many weekends with my family hiking and camping around the Grand Canyon, providing us a respite from our urban neighborhood. I have seen firsthand the value public lands and national parks bring to a young person. And as a veteran, my connection to our public lands has only grown deeper. I believe it is a patriotic duty to protect America’s outdoors, especially now when families are turning to our parks for solace. I want to ensure that this appreciation of our natural resources extends into future generations, but for that to happen we need responsible leadership. The Trump administration withdrew their nomination because it was impossible to ignore that Pendley’s bigotry and extreme record on public lands make him unfit to lead the BLM. Now, the administration must end this charade and remove Pendley entirely, once and for all.

Access to clean drinking water, protection from uranium exposure, and the freedom to explore safe and protected public lands must be our elected officials’ top priority. Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who opposed Pendley’s nomination and has demanded he be removed, is working with local stakeholders and tribal nations to permanently ban mining and put Arizonans first. Unfortunately, our other senator-- Martha McSally-- has not committed to supporting this important effort nor has she called for the removal of William Perry Pendley. Senator McSally, will you step up to prioritize Arizonans’ interests, or will you let the administration destroy our treasured landscape?

Our leaders at the federal level should be focused on protecting public health, plain and simple. Arizonans cannot afford to go through another battle with uranium mining, and we deserve a BLM director who will protect our public lands and put our well-being above that of fossil fuel CEOs. By withdrawing Pendley’s nomination, the Trump administration proved that his extremist, anti-public lands agenda was unconfirmable. He should not now be allowed to serve, presumably illegally, anymore. Pendley must go.

Has Jared Kushner Taken Over Kanye's Mind On Behalf Of The Trumpanzee Campaign?

There are always contrarians-- people who go against the grain just to... go against the grain. In the early 1930s, a Jew voting for Hitler as Germany's fragile democracy was collapsing-- and there were some-- would likely have been a severe contrarian. Those votes didn't prevent them from being rounded up and exterminated in gas chambers. According to Pew Research, 6% of 2016 Black voters cast their ballots for Trump. Contrarianism is one explanation. Can you think of a more clownish contrarian than deranged rap star Kanye West? We covered his presidential "campaign" late Monday night.

The idea behind it was simple: Trump isn't going to get many Black voters-- maybe even less than the 6% he got in 2016. But preventing some from voting for Biden-Kamala in a few swing states-- like Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa-- could swing the electoral college to Trump again. Black voters, it turns out, are way too smart for that, as is apparent in the Morning Consult poll for Politico yesterday. Just 2% of voters say he's their choice and just 2% of African-American voters say he's their choice. Most people see it as either a Trumpist ploy or a typical Kanye publicity stunt. People don't tale his bid seriously, despite a gaggle of experienced Republican Party operatives, like Gregg Keller, former executive director of the American Conservative Union, working to legitimize him and get him on the ballot in key states. This is his 10-point Bible-driven "platform" (for lack of a better word):

• Restore faith and revive our Constitutional commitment to freedom of religion and the free exercise of one’s faith, demonstrated by restoring prayer in the classroom including spiritual foundations.
We will not hide the truth from our children, but will declare to the next generation His praises and wonder. Psalm 78:4

• Restore the sound national economy. Reduce household debt and student loan debt.
God has plans to give us hope and a future. Jeremiah 29:11

• Provide leadership to restructure our country’s education system to serve the most at-risk and vulnerable populations allowing the widest possible range of educational and vocational paths to job opportunities and career success.
Direct your children on the right path. Proverbs 22:6

• Maintain a strong national defense, fully prepared, but not so quick to tie up our country’s young men and women in foreign quagmires that do not advance our national interest, and which last for decades.
Through God we shall do valiantly. Psalm 60:12

• Reform the legal system to provide true justice, equitable for all citizens, regardless of race or ability to defend oneself in court. Recognize the disparity in verdicts and prison sentences, caused by the lack of financial resources or legal assistance.
There will not be differing weights and differing measures. Proverbs 20:10

• Reform the approach to policing in a manner that treats all Americans the same, regardless of race, color, or ethnicity. Refocus police forces on real crime. Eliminate federal sentencing guidelines that tie the hands of judges, resulting in ridiculous sentences for the most minor offenses.
We will speak for those who cannot speak for themselves. Proverbs 31:8

• Take care of the environment, diligently pursuing clean air and water as a national security priority and making renewables top priority.
The past is forgotten and everything can be new 2 Corinthians 5:17

• Ensure that we always place Americans’ best interest first and foremost in dealing with foreign affairs. We must project strength, not aggression. We want trust, but we must also verify. We want fair trade, not one-sided deals that hurt American workers.
Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God. Matthew 5:9

• Support faith-based groups to provide vital local services, giving communities a shared purpose in government.
We will provide ways to motivate one another to acts of love and good works Hebrews 10:24

• Creativity and the Arts can be an important source of innovation and development of other national strengths and resources.
He has given them skill in all kinds of work done. Exodus 35:35

The only semi-significant support the poll found for him was among the youngest-- and least reliable-- cohort of voters, Gen Z, where he could get 6% of the vote. Oh... and then there's Jared Kushner, who, the NY Times reported yesterday, "met privately last weekend with Kanye" in Telluride, Kanye leaving a family camping trip to fly in and meet with Trumpanzee's campaign overseer.

After an inquiry, Mr. West tweeted Tuesday evening: “I’m willing to do a live interview with the New York Time about my meeting with Jared,” adding that they had discussed a book about Black empowerment called Powernomics.” He did not elaborate on his meeting with Mr. Kushner in a brief follow-up interview. He instead expressed anger about abortion rates among Black women and said he didn’t reflexively support Democrats.

Forbes went further in their reporting: a Kushner-Kanye yack session daily. A friend of Kanye's told Randall Lane explained that Kanye is "mentally ill. When you have people around him who have the best intentions and don’t need anything from him, you can steer him when he’s in that space into a positive place. When you have people around him who see him as an opportunity, they create a very, very bad scenario." Some in Kanye's circle "feel that Kushner now falls into that latter camp in ways that flirt with exploitation-- concerning, after Kardashian West asked publicly for 'compassion and empathy.' One described their understanding of Kushner’s conversations with West as 'reverse psychology.' Others prescribe less malicious intent, though that narrative would require a level of naiveté that would rank up there with sitting in a meeting at Trump Tower with Russians who promise to have dirt on Hillary Clinton."

I'm not sure how big Kanye is in Montana but the Billings Gazette reported yesterday that Republican operatives are trying to get him on the ballot there, specifically to draw voters away from Biden/Kamala. They've been gathering signatures and telling people explicitly it was to siphon off Biden votes in November.

"You want to help Trump?" one of the organizers called out Tuesday afternoon in front of the Yellowstone County Courthouse. "We're trying to take votes away from creepy Uncle Joe."

...A similar group of organizers were at MetraPark on Tuesday using the same pitch, calling out to fair-goers as they approached the gate, sometimes not even mentioning West's name.

The organizer on the sidewalk in front of the county courthouse called to people as they approached or left the building Tuesday afternoon. His pitch was always the same, help Trump, sign the petition, get West on the ballot and draw votes away from Biden.

The man declined to give his name, saying he had been "told expressly to stay away from the media." He also declined to name the group that recruited him to gather signatures, describing them as clients of the West campaign.

About 6,400 of Montana's 1.1 million people are Black. Kanye probably has a lot more fans than that in the state. The Republican organizers of his ballot effort have until August 19, a week from yesterday, to gather 5,000 verifiable signatures. Many-- in some cases, most-- of these signatures the GOP operatives have been turning in in other states are forgeries. And that's hardly the only dirty trick the GOP is trying to pull off in Montana to protect Trump and Daines and their other candidates. They're also trying-- so far unsuccessfully-- to use the Montana Green Party as a way to divert progressive votes away from Biden.

A couple of free thinkers. How would you like a tape of their presidential strategy meeting? 

Steve Bullock Is More Popular Than Either Steve Daines Or Señor Trumpanzee In Montana

Let me have a little LOL moment. On May 1, I wrote that "2020 will be another big anti-red wave. The media isn't talking about it yet-- they're a lagging indicator-- but they will." Sabato's Crystal Ball had just explained why they were still betting on the Montana Senate seat to stay red. "Gov. Steve Bullock’s (D-MT) late entry into the race last month prevented first-term Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) from coasting to reelection: We were prepared to move the race to Safe Republican prior to Bullock’s entry; we now list it as Leans Republican. Based on what we can piece together, the race seems like it’s neck and neck at the moment. But does that actually make it a Toss-up? We are not quite there yet."

Of course not. They'll be truly ready when AP calls the race for Bullock on election night. Even then, polling showed that Montana voters like Bullock (49%) better than Daines (45%)-- and that Daines (42%) have slightly higher unfavorables than Bullock (40%) and that in a head-to-head matchup it was an exact 47-47% tie. Doesn't that define the toss-up that Sabato was unwilling to call the race?

Instead, Sabato used "history" to suggest Bullock will lose: "[I]t is very rare for an incumbent senator to lose reelection while that senator’s party is winning the state for president. There are only four examples of that happening in the last seven presidential election cycles, and there were confounding circumstances in three of those four races. Donald Trump would really have to crater in order to lose Montana, which he carried by 20 points in 2016." I was at that low point that I predicted Sabato would be rating Montana a toss up by summer. I think tomorrow is the first day of summer, right? Cook moved Montana to toss up yesterday.

Why not? A more recent poll shows Bullock leading 46-39%. So "toss up" seems nice and safe. Cook's Jessica Taylor wrote that the past few months have "highlighted the unique nature of this race, as the only contest with a sitting governor seeking a Senate seat. And like other governors who have ably handled the pandemic-- especially in comparison to the Trump administration's bungling-- Bullock has seen his approval ratings rise exponentially too, up to 75 percent in one poll. Montana has had one of the lowest per capita infection rates (49th out of 50), with only 20 deaths as of June 17, and Bullock has gotten plaudits for closing the state early as it began to reopen last month. So it's not surprising that Bullock seems to have benefited from his gubernatorial leadership during this crisis and being in the news daily. Recent private Democratic polling in the contest gives Bullock a small lead and finds that Bullock's approval ratings are more than 20 points higher than Daines, though the incumbent senator remains slightly above water. GOP polling also shows that it's a close race, but one where every internal poll for them has still shown Daines leading. Yet, even some Republicans privately admit this is likely to be a margin of error race to the finish line. Each party just believes it's their candidate who will eke out the victory."

Morning Consult hasn't updated their state by state Trump tracker since the pandemic struck. But by late February, Trump's approval rating in Montana had decreased by 18 points since inauguration day and his net approval was just 6 points (52-46%). The most recent polling I could find is two months old and shows Trump leading Biden 45.3% to 39.7%, a 5.6% lead for Trump-- nothing like the 56.2% to 35.7% Trump win over Hillary in 2016. Keep in mind, operations like Cook and Sabato are structurally incapable of taking into account how horrible a candidate Hillary was for Montana in 2016-- or how horrible a candidate Trump is in 2020. Taylor demonstrates what I mean:

Trump is on pace to win the state by double digits, but somewhere perhaps in the mid or low teens instead.

Overcoming that margin is still tough in a presidential year-- when Jon Tester won a second term in 2012 with President Obama atop the ballot, he outpaced him by almost 7 points. Obama lost Montana that year by nearly 14 points. But in 2008, Democratic Senate candidates in competitive races did outpace the top of the ticket by about 12.5 points. Also, Democrats argue that Biden isn't as toxic in the state as Hillary Clinton was four years ago, and note that Obama even came within 2 points of winning the state in 2008. But Republicans say their polling from last month still had Biden far underwater in the state. Plus, if Trump's numbers continue to sour nationally, there's a chance that Republicans can make the argument that there needs to be a GOP Senate still to serve as a check on a Biden administration.

But there's some evidence that maybe Bullock's performance with handling COVID-19 and generally good favorability in the state makes this a unique situation where traditional rules may not apply. Unlike other states with candidates newer to the statewide ballot, Bullock is already well-defined in voters' minds, and it may be harder to change voters' opinions of him. Bullock's fundraising has been impressive since he got in, too-- he outraised Daines by about $2.1 million in the first fundraising quarter, despite being in the race for less than a month before the deadline. In the six week pre-primary filing period too ahead of the June 2 primary, Bullock again outpaced the incumbent by a nearly two-to-one margin and pulled within $1.6 million of Daines's cash of hand advantage.

Both parties have also begun to commit outside resources to the race too. According to data from Advertising Analytics, the Democratic super PAC Senate Majority PAC has reserved about $8.1 million for ads (broadcast/cable/satellite/digital), while their 501(c)(4) offshoot Majority Forward has reserved about $3.3 million. The DSCC has reserved about $5.2 million, set to begin in August. The NRSC has reserved $2.7 million, set to begin in September. The GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $8.5 million, while their non-profit arm One Nation has reserved about $3.7 million, set to begin next week.

Republicans push back on the notion that Bullock can prevail at a federal level in such a red state, and believe they have plenty of oppo to use against him from his brief, quixotic run for president last year that will ultimately bring down his numbers. They plan especially to hit him on guns after he backed an assault weapons ban, which even Tester does not support. But Democrats counter that Montanans' impression of Bullock is already formed, and that their polling indicates the gun issue won't move the numbers. And they scoff at Bullock's first ad that came out this week, where he says he "won't answer to party bosses," after he was wooed into the race by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and former President Obama. Nationalizing this race and making it more about control of the Senate instead of about whether or not voters like Bullock is key to GOP success.

...Montana is the toughest state on paper for Democrats when we look solely at the presidential numbers. Still, it's been clear for a while that this race is shaping up to be a unique battle between two well-liked Montanans (who both just happen to be named Steve), making it the most glaringly competitive race we've had in the Lean Republican column for the past few months. Several indicators now merit a more competitive rating, and therefore we are moving this race to Toss Up.

Schumer wants to fill the Senate with face Democrats like Kyrsten Sinema, who votes more frequently against progressive proposals than any other Senate Democrat. All of his picks this cycle have been Sinema-types. Hopefully Andrew Romanoff in Colorado and Charles Booker in Kentucky will defeat the Schumer candidates. Bullock is an exception in some ways. He's an actual moderate, NOT a conservative who calls himself a moderate and he's as good a Democrat as anyone could reasonably expect in Montana. And speaking of Kentucky, this Civiqs poll was released yesterday:

Pick One: Fewer Deaths Or More Corporate Profits

Last week one of the famous electoral prognosticators, who never gets anything right until a day or two before the election, looked at the Senate election in Montana and pontificated that "Based on what we can piece together, the race seems like it’s neck and neck at the moment. But does that actually make it a Toss-up? We are not quite there yet." I wrote that he should be there and will be there in a few weeks and went into why, which you can read at the link. But a new poll of likely voters from Montana State University shows Bullock pulling out ahead already.

The Democratic governor-- whose state has the second fewest COVID-19 cases in the country (after Alaska) and just 439 cases per million (compared to a national number of 3,681 per million)-- has pulled ahead of the incumbent Steve Daines, whose head hasn't been pulled out of Trump's ass once this year. Montanans were asked who they would vote for if the election for Senate were held now.

• Bullock- 46%
• Daines- 39%
• Someone else (Libertarian or Green)- 6%
• Unsure- 7%

53% of Montana voters approve of Trump's response to the pandemic, but 70% approve of Bullock's response. (Only 48% approve of Daines' response-- and 28% said they don't know what Daines' response is.)

Bullock isn't exactly a Berniecrat-- not by a long shot-- but he seems pretty good for an establishment guy and is certainly better than any of Schumer's other recruits. I wouldn't be surprised if the Montana Senate race turns out to be the only case in the country where Schumer and I are backing the same challenger.

There seems to be a structural difference between conservatives and progressives when it comes to a very basic perspective playing out right now in regard to how to confront the pandemic-- individualism vs societal cooperation. I bet you're not surprised to see that conservatives value business over life and progressives value lives over business. John Pavlovitz seem to have tweeted it this week:

And for the conservative side of the argument, let's turned to the former-- and hopefully last-- Republican governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, a guest on Dana Bash's show Monday. Christie told her that the country needs to reopen, despite separate key coronavirus models forecasting that thousands may die daily.

"Of course, everybody wants to save every life they can-- but the question is, towards what end, ultimately?" Christie, a Republican tapped to lead President Donald Trump's presidential transition team in 2016, told CNN's Dana Bash on the Daily DC Podcast. "Are there ways that we can... thread the middle here to allow that there are going to be deaths, and there are going to be deaths no matter what?"

Christie told Bash that "we've got to let some of these folks get back to work, because if we don't, we're going to destroy the American way of life in these families-- and it will be years and years before we can recover." His comments Monday echoed similar characterizations by other Republicans-- including President Donald Trump-- that the economic impact of coronavirus is just as devastating to the nation as the virus itself.

When Bash pressed Christie on whether people would be able to accept reopening in light of news of a Trump administration model projecting a rise up to about 3,000 daily US deaths from coronavirus by June 1, Christie responded, "They're gonna have to."

"We're in the midst of a pandemic that we haven't seen in over 100 years," he said. "And we're going to have to continue to do things."

With governors facing mounting pressure mounting to reopen their states' economies and Trump itching to scale back on social distancing nationwide as soon as possible, more than half of states had lifted aspects of their stay-at-home orders as of Monday.

Yet, a separate influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House is now forecasting that 134,000 people will die of Covid-19 in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction. The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, had predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning.

Christie, asked Monday what his messaging would be to the American public if he sat in the Oval Office, said, "The message is that the American people have gone through significant death before." He pointed to the first and second World Wars as examples of how "we've gone through it and we've survived it. We sacrificed those lives."

"We sent our young men during World War Two over to Europe, out to the Pacific, knowing, knowing that many of them would not come home alive," he said, adding: "And we decided to make that sacrifice because what we were standing up for was the American way of life. In the very same way now, we have to stand up for the American way of life."

The former governor lamented the "economic devastation" as "equally sad," and told Bash that while he wasn't advocating for crowded public gatherings like rock concerts or football games, "we have to let certain people get back to work because I can see my own state here."

Christie encouraged vulnerable populations to stay indoors, as "they're the ones who are gonna really swallow this burden badly, the elderly and those with respiratory diseases, depressed immune systems from cancer treatments or other things."

"Those folks are going to have to be even more careful than the rest of the population," he added. "I don't know what the choice is."

There's a way to do this and minimize loss of life and there's a way to do this and minimize loss of profit. It's not all black or all white; it's a matter of prioritization. Conservatives pick one way and progressives pick the other. As a voter, you'll have to pick between the two. Liam O'Mara is the progressive Democrat taking on corrupt Republican incumbent Ken Calvert in Riverside County, California. Riverside County has the 4th highest population in California, after L.A., San Diego and Orange counties. But Riverside is second in the number of COVID infections and deaths. CA-42, where Liam is running, gave Calvert a 56.5% to 43.5% win in 2018 (an R+13 PVI). That would be just the kind of district with large numbers of sociopaths who refuse to obey social distancing regulations out of selfishness and disregard for their neighbors. And the county band of supervisors is debating whether or not to just scrap the regulations altogether and open up for business without masks or social distancing. This is the sensible letter O'Mara sent the board:

Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) noted that "We can deliver unemployment checks to those who were laid off. We can get loans to small businesses who had to shut down. We can provide stimulus payments to families affected by the pandemic. But we cannot bring the dead back to life. This is why we cannot haphazardly rush to reopen without adequate testing, tracing and isolation."

Bullseye by Nancy Ohanian

How Powerful Will Trump's Reverse Coattails Be In November?

Sunday showed that the early pandemic states are starting to level off. But the states where social distancing hasn't been taken seriously by state and local governments and lunkhead citizens, like the imbeciles in Oklahoma City, and where governors are racing to open up fast... that's where the focus of the pandemic is moving now:

• Tennessee- up 516 cases (1,981 per million, up from Saturday's 1,904)
• Indiana- up 638 cases (3,003 per million, up from Saturday's 2,907)
• Florida- up 615 cases (1,752 per million, up from Saturday's 1,722)
• Texas- up 557 cases (1,137 per million, up from Saturday's 1,117)
• Iowa- up 528 cases (2,927 per million, up from Saturday's 2,759)
• Nebraska up 333 cases (2,971 per million, up from Saturday's 2,796)
• Georgia- up 284 cases (2,779 per million, up from Saturday's 2,751)
• South Dakota- up 43 cases (3,044 per million, up from Saturday's 2,994)

These red state increases come at an awkward time for Republican congressional incumbents. Josh Kraushaar closed his National Journal piece on endangered Republicans keeping distance from Trump with a quote from Billy Piper, a former chief of staff to McConnell: "The good thing about Senate races is they’re big enough to be their own thing. If you work hard enough you can create the circumstances of your own campaign. Good campaigns can win in bad years. Bad campaigns can lose in good years. It’s up to the individual campaign to define their opponent and themselves, regardless of what the overall environment is going to be." Well... that's always been true pre-Trump. But it's very hard for any senator to get away from that tar-baby.

First off, Trump dominates the stage like no other politician ever has. November will be a referendum on him and on his political party of enablers. Second, a Senate race is big enough for Trump to notice if an incumbent doesn't defend him vigorously enough. He won't let it pass by unremarked on. Sunday morning, we looked at a few House races where GOP incumbents are hoping to distance themselves from Trump in a way that independent and moderate voters notice but that Trump and his supporters don't. Senators can't do that. They're either for him or against him. And he makes sure everyone knows that.

Remember, there is not a single Republican senator who can win reelection in November without mega-turnout from the Trumpist base-- and that includes Susan Collins even if she manages to win back some of her old independent supporters.

Kraushaar emphasized that Republicans can’t rely on the same assumptions that drove their pre-pandemic thinking for the last year, which he defines this way:

• Republicans should embrace the president at all costs, even in swing states where his job approval is underwater.
• It’s more important to rally the base than persuade swing suburbanites.
• With Republicans defending most of their Senate seats in Trump territory, simply holding the president’s voters would be adequate to maintain Mitch McConnell’s majority.

GOP campaign operatives are singing a very different tune today: "Republicans should be talking about their work to help their communities in the wake of the pandemic, and avoid referencing Trump’s role in managing the crisis. To win battleground Senate seats that are looking more tenuous [Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Alabama, maybe even Kentucky], it will be crucial to maintain support from some Trump-skeptical independents. If Trump’s political condition doesn’t improve by the fall, prepare to talk about keeping the Senate as a check against Democratic power, even if it means acknowledging the presidency is likely lost." Imagine Trump's reaction to that.

Let me paint the picture: Democrat Steve Bullock is increasing a tiny lead over Republican Steve Daines in Montana. Daines' allies put up and ad that says with the Democrats in charge of the House and the White House, only the Senate will prevent a socialist takeover or open borders or an untenable debt or whatever nonsense the GOP is running on. Trump finds out about the ad and that Daines hasn't denounced it. Trump, Jr. gets on twitter and instructs the Trumpist true believers that Daines is an enemy of MAGA. Instead of winning by the same 3.5% margin (253,876 to 235,963 votes) that Tester beat Matt Rosendale by. Bullock wins Yellowstone and Chouteau counties, runs up big majorities in Lake, Park, and Gallatin, and drives down Republican majorities in Lincoln and Flathead counties. That would be enough to give Bullock a 6 or 7 point win and give him the coattails to drag Tom Winter over the finish line and give Democrats the 9 seats they need to take over the state House and cut the GOP lead in the state Senate in half. Now... imagine similar scenarios in Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska-- all perfectly reasonable hypotheses. So, not just the end of the line for Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis and Dan Sullivan-- if he even runs-- but also likely defeats for Congress members Steve King (R-IA), Richard Hudson (R-NC), Dan Bishop (R-NC) and Don Young (R-AK).

Trump's reverse coattails in Texas aren't going to be enough to take down Senator John Cornyn, but it watch career-enders in November for Michael McCaul, Chip Roy, Roger Williams and John Carter-- plus open seat red district wins for Sri Kulkarni and Candace Valenzuela, Gina Ortiz Jones.

But some campaigns are starting to experiment with a third way, avoiding polarizing national issues in favor of reminders about their constituent services in a time of crisis. Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is out with a new ad touting her personal work to help her state during the crisis, featuring video of her donating blood and volunteering at a local food bank. Tillis is reminding North Carolinians that he voted for the bipartisan coronavirus aid package. McConnell is promoting his experience working with both Republican and Democratic presidents to pass pivotal legislation, branding himself as an effective Washington insider in turbulent times.

Trump isn’t mentioned at all in the McSally and Tillis ads and is only seen briefly in the one-minute McConnell spot. The senators’ earlier campaign ads made Trump the centerpiece of their campaign messaging.

Even Pence has had to confront this dilemma-- probably daily. Yesterday, the NY Times noted that a governor, "who asked not to be named, said Mr. Pence never betrays what he really thinks about the president’s behavior: 'Multiple times, I say, But Mike, this is just crazy, and sometimes there will be a little pause and I’m waiting for him to say, 'Yes, I know.' But he never does. Instead, Mr. Pence says, 'I understand. Thank you for your input.'"

Most Professional Political Prognasticators Said The Senate Was Out Of Reach For The Democrats But They're BeginningTo Admit They Were Wrong

2020 will be another big anti-red wave. The media isn't talking about it yet-- they're a lagging indicator-- but they will, and when they do, they will demonstrate how clueless they are by dubbing it a "blue wave," which it certainly won't be.

The video above was made by The Lincoln Project, a cabal of #NeverTrump Republicans-- George Conway, Jennifer Horn, Steve Schmidt, John Weaver, Rick Wilson, Mike Madrid, etc. In their mission statement they wrote that their goal is defeating Trump and Trumpism at the ballot box. "We do not undertake this task lightly nor from ideological preference. Our many policy differences with national Democrats remain. However, the priority for all patriotic Americans must be a shared fidelity to the Constitution and a commitment to defeat those candidates who have abandoned their constitutional oaths, regardless of party. Electing Democrats who support the Constitution over Republicans who do not is a worthy effort." Perfect for Justin Amash? Uh... no. they happily endorsed conservative, Status Quo Joe while spending money attacking Trump:





And now, as you can see in the video up top, they are also attacking vulnerable Republican senators, in this case Susan Collins (ME), Thom Tillis (NC), Cory Gardner (CO) and Martha McSally (AZ), the 4 of whom are the key to putting Chuck Schumer in charge of the Senate instead of Moscow Mitch. That's a big move for a bunch of life-long Republicans, more than just standing up to Trump. But it isn't #NeverTrumpers that are going to make the difference in the Senate and House races; it's millions of independent voters and the size of the Democratic turnout-- even with an incredibly bad Democratic candidate at the top of the ticket and mostly mediocre (at best) Democratic candidates in down ballot races. 2020 will be a referendum on Trump and his enablers in the Republican Party. The GOP risks more than Trump falling off the COVID-cliff; they risk him dragging the rest of the party over with him-- senators, Congress members, governors, state legislators... As Ben White wrote for Politico on Tuesday, "Republicans are trying to pull off a high-wire act over the next three months: Reopen the economy enough to get most jobless Americans back to work and off the public dole, while resisting another giant stimulus package. If they fail, they’ll face a coronavirus cliff-- an even deeper collapse in spending and sky-high unemployment in the months before Election Day. That could both damage President Donald Trump’s reelection prospects and put the party’s Senate majority at serious risk."

Yesterday, Kyle Kondik's report for Sabato's Crystal Ball looked cautiously-- cautiously being the operative word for the always-a-month-behind Sabato operation-- beyond the Core Four highlighted in the Lincoln Project ad. "[T]he map may be expanding," ventured Kondik. "Democrats’ best bet among the other targets probably is Montana, but we still see a small Republican edge there." They moved Alaska Republican Dan Sullivan, who hasn't filed to run yet and probably won't, from Safe to Likely in his race against Dr. Al Gross, an Independent running as a Democrat. And they did the same with Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, which is just silly and pointless.

Since Alabama Democrat Doug Jones isn't likely to be reelected, the Democrats have to win Arizona, Maine, North Carolina and Colorado and the vice presidency, to send McConnell packing.

The best Democratic target right now outside the core four is Montana, in our view. Its emergence as a Senate battleground represents the best argument, for Democrats, that they are truly expanding the Senate map beyond the core four.

Gov. Steve Bullock’s (D-MT) late entry into the race last month prevented first-term Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) from coasting to reelection: We were prepared to move the race to Safe Republican prior to Bullock’s entry; we now list it as Leans Republican.

Based on what we can piece together, the race seems like it’s neck and neck at the moment. But does that actually make it a Toss-up? We are not quite there yet.

They should be there-- and will be by June-- because that's what it is. The only current public polling available-- PPP's March 19 survey-- showed Governor Steve Bullock exactly tied with Senate incumbent and Trump enabler Steve Daines, 47-47%. Cook and Inside Elections, like Sabato, rate the race "leans Republican." In 2018 Democrat Jon Tester-- who isn't as popular as Bullock-- beat Republican Matt Rosendale 253,876 (50.3%) to 235,963 (46.8%).

Kondik uses history to suggest Bullock will lose: "[I]t is very rare for an incumbent senator to lose reelection while that senator’s party is winning the state for president. There are only four examples of that happening in the last seven presidential election cycles, and there were confounding circumstances in three of those four races. Donald Trump would really have to crater in order to lose Montana, which he carried by 20 points in 2016." Like I said, by June Kondik will change his rating to "Toss-up."

Trump did well against Hillary in 2016-- 274,120 (56.5%) to 174,521 (36.0%), but she was an exceptionally bad candidate for the state and didn't campaign there. Since the inauguration, the Morning Consult Trump Tracker has seen Trump's job approval rating collapse by a mammoth 18 points and his lead now (Feb 20, pre-pandemic) is 52% approve, 46% disapprove, a 6 point net approval. Expect that to head underwater in their next report. (In November it was underwater, 48% approve, 49% disapprove.)

An even worse rating for Sabato is their leans Republican for Joni Ernst. The 5-way Democratic primary is still month away. Michael Franken is probably the best shot the Democrats have to take the seat but Schumer recruited the worst shot, conservative nothing Theresa Greenfield, Ernst's best shot to hold on. Trump won the state 798,923 (51.8%) to 650,790 (42.2%) in 2016 but a better number to look at would be 4 Iowa congressional district races in 2018, after voters had already decided they hate Trump. (The Morning Consult Tracker showed Trump underwater already in February. His net approve numbers had gone down 14 points since he was inaugurated and now stand at 46% approving and 51% disapproving, negative 5.) In 2018 extremely mediocre congressional candidates defeated 2 GOP incumbents. Statewide, so combining all 4 district results, 665,676 voters chose the Democrats and 612,338 chose the Republicans, a catastrophic GOP result, likely to be as bad or worse in November for Ernst. Ernst's approval rating has followed Trump's down the toilet, the latest poll showing her down 10 points since last year.

Both Senate seats are open in Georgia, a special election where the bitterness among appointed, crooked Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and extremist sociopath Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) is further poisoning the well for Republicans. Rev. Raphael Warnock has a good shot there. The other seat, held by David Purdue (R), is up in the air because of a murky primary. Former Columbus mayor Theresa Tomlinson would be the best bet to beat Purdue but the establishment prefers a centrist order-taker, either "ex"-Republican Sarah Riggs Amico or careerist looser Jon Ossoff. As of the March 31 FEC deadline, Tomlinson had spent $1,631,918, to Ossoff's $1,533,898 and Amico's $1,074,393. The primary is on May 19.

Other states Democrats have slight chances to win away from Republicans-- if and only if the wave is big enough-- are Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky and West Virginia. The Blue America 2020 Senate page can be accessed by clicking on the thermometer above.