Hope... In Indiana? Yep-- A Week From Today (But Not In The Senate Race)

Indiana has a really important primary for progressives a week from today-- the 9th congressional district has a face-off between stalwart and brilliant progressive Dan Canon and some DC insider who's pretending to be part of the local community. Electing Dan can be a game-changing event because there are so few members of Congress like him. Most Democrats are just worthless garden variety seat-occupiers, some better than others, like Liz Watson, the one from DC opposing him. Please consider contributing to Dan's field operation here.

Meanwhile a much bigger deal is being made about a Senate race that will eventually result in electing either a very conservative Republican pr a very conservative Democrat. None of them are any good but-- surprise, surprise-- the very conservative Democrat, Joe Donnelly (rated "F" by ProgressivePunch and, according to them, the 4th worst Democrat in the Senate (after Doug Jones, Joe Manchin and Heidi Heitkamp). But that contest is not 'til November. Next Tuesday the big race is for the GOP nomination to oppose Donnelly.

Donnelly was a crap Blue Dog in Congress, who realized he had ZERO chance of being reelected in 2012, so he went for a hail Mary pass and ran for the U.S. Senate and then lucked out when neo-fascist Richard Mourdock knocked out mainstream Republican Richard Lugar. Predictably, Mourdock-- though not running around with a swastika on his arm-- was caught saying insane enough things for Donnelly to actually beat him, albeit narrowly-- 1,281,181 (50%) to 1,133,621 (44.3%), with a Libertarian drawing 5.7% of the vote. Donnelly is probably hoping for a replay-- and he may get one, as the Republican candidates push each other further and further right in a quest for a lunatic, Trumpist party base. NBC covered the Republican primary fight for NBC News yesterday, noting that the Republicans are charging each other with things like "Drunken driving, self-dealing and false advertising," while all 3 candidates-- Congressman Todd Rokita, Congressman Luke Messer and former state Rep. Mike Braun-- are "doing their best to portray themselves as the second coming" of... Señor Trumpanzee.

As of the April 18 FEC reporting deadline Braun had raised the most-- $5,841,425 (though 91.6% of that, $5,350,377, was from his own pocket)-- compared to Messer ($2,895,11) and Rokita ($2,659,487). Donnelly has out-raised them all-- $9,773,228-- not counting the $3,007,557 that Schumer's Senate Majority PAC has spent on Donnelly.

If it comes down to who is the most Trump-like, Braun should have the edge.

He took the political establishment here by surprise, dumping millions of dollars of his own money into ads that introduced him to voters and framed his opponents as twin denizens of the Washington "swamp" that the president often rails against.

In one ad, Braun, 64, dressed in his trademark blue shirt with sleeves rolled, walks around with cardboard cutouts of Rokita and Messer, both in suits and matching red ties, and asks voters if they can tell his rivals apart. Spoiler alert: They can't.



Like Trump, Braun has focused on his business acumen-- in his case an auto-parts distributorship. And while critics note that he voted in Democratic primaries for many years and worked legislative levers in the Statehouse to try to win tax breaks for the timber industry, in which he has a personal stake, neither argument make him seem less like the president.

Trump won Indiana with 56 percent of the vote in 2016.

Braun lumps his primary opponents together with Donnelly, saying that the incumbent, Messer and Rokita have failed to make a positive mark in Washington-- a message that could remain consistent from the primary to the general election.

"I'm not going to waste my time," if elected, Braun told NBC News. If he can't make a dent, he pledged, "I'm going to head back to Hoosierland."

Braun has raised his profile to the point that with 45 percent still undecided in the only public poll taken, he led on April 11 with 26 percent, to Rokita's 16 percent and Messer's 13 percent. Veteran political observers here say that the combination of Braun's ad blitz, and the relatively sleepy and low-dollar campaigns of his rivals, has vaulted him to front-runner status. But they also say the race is unsettled.

"This is fascinatingly close," said former Rep. Mark Souder, R-Ind. "People who are following are changing their minds. I've never seen such fluidity before."

n 2017, the American Conservative Union scored 25 votes by House members. Rokita voted with the group, which runs the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in the Washington area, all 25 times. Messer strayed just once, by voting to fund the Manufacturing Extension Partnership, a federal program that shares costs with local governments and private investors to aid small and mid-size manufacturers.

Messer voted for an omnibus spending bill last month that boosted funding for both the military and domestic accounts while Rokita voted against it. But even Trump appeared to be torn on the matter, trashing it publicly before he signed it.

Both lawmakers have had to explain past allegations of driving under the influence. Messer, 49, who won his state House seat after his predecessor was killed by a drunken driver, has been convicted twice on such charges. Rokita, 48, was arrested for illegal consumption of alcohol and possessing a fake ID after a traffic stop when he was in college-- the officer reported that he seemed intoxicated-- but those charges were dismissed and his campaign has said he passed a sobriety test and was in possession only of closed-container alcohol.

Before Trump was the Republican nominee, Rokita and Messer both bashed him-- as "vulgar" and "race-baiting," respectively.

Now, though, they each want to be seen as the logical pick to help Trump advance his agenda in Washington. Messer, who represents portions of the Indianapolis suburbs and the eastern part of the state, notes that he has a slightly higher score (92.9 percent) than Rokita (90.1 percent) in FiveThirtyEight.com's rating of how often lawmakers vote with Trump.

Rokita is also talking like it's still 2016-- referring to "Crooked Hillary" on the campaign trail and keeping alive supporters' calls to "lock her up."

Tina Beck, a Trump backer who voted early for Rokita, lamented last week that Clinton had not yet been jailed, while blasting the media for trying to "get" the president.

...It's Rokita and Messer who have to make up ground in the closing days of the campaign. Both say they're better bets in November.

Rokita is embarking on a final sprint through 50 events, and his spokesman, Nathan Brand, said that push and the record he has in Congress will help put him over the top.

"Todd will continue to outwork his competition over the final days, talking directly to voters about the need for a pro-Trump, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment conservative who will stand up against the liberal elites in Washington," Brand said.

Brad Todd, a consultant to Messer's campaign, said Republicans need to put up a nominee in November who can win over swing voters in the Indianapolis suburbs.

He said honesty could be the key to the race.

"The whole argument against Donnelly is that in Washington he isn't who he says he is in Indiana," Todd said. "Braun has faced criticism for claiming to be a 'lifelong Republican' in his ads while his voter records show he was a lifelong Democrat even into the Obama years. Rokita claims to have Trump's endorsement but the president demanded he cease and desist. Luke [Messer] heads into the general with the strongest argument against Joe."

Voters here will welcome the end of the ugliness in eight days.

Pretty ugly-- all the more reason we need to elect Dan Canon to Congress-- starting with the Democratic primary next week.

Trump-Supporting Crackpots In Indiana Are Destroying Each Other-- Can That Save Joe Donnelly's Senate Seat

Mess of Indiana conservatism

Before we get into the Indiana Senate race, there's some breaking news I want to share. Randy Bryce, the progressive Democrat and iron worker running for the southeast Wisconsin congressional seat occupied by Paul Ryan just moments ago issued a statementcalling on Ryan to initiate censure proceedings in the House against Trump for his divisive 'both sides' comments. "There is no moral equivalence between the repugnant peddlers of hate and violence, and those who bravely stand up to them," said Bryce. "Yesterday President Trump used the presidential seal to give political cover to vile racist extremists. The forces of deadly bigotry will only be emboldened by Trump's comments. When former Imperial Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan David Duke thanks you for your remarks-- as he did to the president yesterday-- you are on the wrong side of history, decency, and American values. These comments yesterday require more than statements of outrage.  They demand an official expression of denunciation from Congress, on the record for all the world to see, and made permanent for history. Speaker Ryan," he said, addressing his opponent directly, "it is time to put action to your words. Only you as the leader of the House can compel that body to move decisively. Demonstrate courage and leadership, not only rhetoric. Initiate censure proceedings now in the U.S. House of Representatives against President Trump for the chief executive's outrageous, unacceptable and un-Amercian remarks."

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming:

Neither of them had to do this-- they each have a safe, comfy, congressional seat-for-life in red parts of Indiana-- but their rivalry is going to cost one of them-- perhaps both of them-- his career in politics. Todd Rokita was elected to Congress in 2010. The 4th congressional district west of Indianapolis has a PVI of R+11. Hillary didn't even hot a third of the vote last year in the district. This is one RED seat. And Luke Messer's 6th district, east of Indianapolis, is even redder. The PVI is R+12. It's Mike Pence's old House seat and Messer took over in 2012 when Pence became governor of Indiana. The district gave Trump a huge win, his biggest in the state-- 67.7% to 27.4%. Both are right-wing extremists and total Trump rubber stamps. Rokita's ifetime ProgressivePunch crucial vote score is 6.10 and Messer's score is 2.62. Politico termed their primary for the Republican Party nomination to go up against vulnerable and unpopular Blue Dog Joe Donnelly the GOP's nastiest Senate primary. And it's personal. The two right-wing goof-balls went the same sub-par college, the all-males Wabash College in Crawfordsville. "The slugfest underway between Republican Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita in Indiana isn’t just for the right to compete for possibly the GOP’s best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats in next year’s midterms," wrote Maggie Severns and Kevin Robillard. "It’s a chance to finally settle the score between two ambitious pols who’ve been vying to outdo one another politically since they graduated from the same small college more than 25 years ago. Yes, this one is personal. Their campaign didn’t officially get underway until last week, but Messer, 48, has already accused Rokita of attacking his wife and 'spreading lies' about his record. Rokita, 47, has questioned his rival’s mental health, calling Messer 'unhinged' and a 'ticking time bomb.'"

Indiana is Trump country-- he beat Hillary 1,557,286 (56.8%) to 1,033,126 (37.9%)-- and Donnelly is disliked by significant numbers of Democrats for his right-of-center approach. He's the GOP's easiest target for 2018. Donnelly only won in 2012 because he was up against a certifiably insane person, Richard Mourdock, who kept destroying his own chances-- and even then, Donnelly would have lost if not for Libertarian Andrew Horning winning 145,282 votes (5.7%), Donnelly's margin of victory. He took 1,281,181 votes (50.0%) to Murdock's 1,133,621 (44.3%).

Over the years, Messer has enjoyed the full embrace of Indiana’s political elite, which appointed him to a seat in the state Legislature and embraced him as part of its leadership. That same elite has always kept Rokita at bay.

Rokita became one of the nation’s youngest statewide elected officials when he was elected Indiana’s secretary of state at age 31. But he made enemies among Republicans in the state Legislature, which years later redrew Rokita’s congressional district in a way that put his home on the wrong side of the new boundary. Many of Indiana’s most prominent political leaders, including Vice President Mike Pence’s brother Greg, have lined up behind Messer. And when Rokita put his name forward for governor last year when Pence became Trump’s vice presidential nominee, the state Republican central committee instead went with now-Gov. Eric Holcomb, a former party chairman.

“Todd has a sense that ‘Messer gets all the breaks and I don’t,’” said one GOP operative. “Now they’re placed in a zero-sum game, and their underlying feelings come out.”

Those feelings reached a boiling point in May and have not calmed since. Messer had been considering a challenge to Donnelly since at least last summer, according to allies, and at first, Rokita waited quietly in the wings. But early this year, Rokita started raising money and meeting with Republican leaders in Washington. Then, a May Associated Press story revealed that Messer’s wife, a lawyer, was being paid a $240,000-a-year consulting fee from a small Indiana town.

The attack struck a particular nerve with Messer, who thought it was prompted by Rokita, according to two people familiar with his thinking. And he didn’t hold back.

"Frankly, I've known Todd a long time and very little surprises me," Messer told a local TV station. "But I would say it's not typical that someone starts a campaign by coming after someone's spouse.”

Rokita kept needling Messer in public, about that story and for relocating his family to Virginia. Messer distributed a lengthy email accusing Rokita of “spreading lies and half-truths,” which Rokita’s campaign responded to by calling Messer “unhinged” and a “ticking time bomb.” Soon, as both candidates lashed out at each other in the press, a dozen edits appeared on Messer’s Wikipedia page echoing one of Rokita’s main lines of attack on Messer: his work as a lobbyist.

...[M]any of the men who helped Rokita defeat a slew of other prominent Republicans in the primary have since abandoned him and are backing Messer for Senate, including his campaign manager Tom John and Grand. Rokita has gone on to earn a reputation as an exacting boss, prone to calling staff late at night.

“Todd has been more of a squeaky wheel than Luke,” said Dan Dumezich, chairman of Rokita’s finance committee. “Sometimes the squeaky wheel gets the grease, and sometimes the squeaky wheel just irritates people.”

Rokita and Messer declined to comment for this story.

Rokita ran particularly afoul of the state Legislature-- where Messer had quickly risen up the ranks during a stint several years earlier-- in 2009, as lawmakers began preparing for the once-in-a-decade redistricting process. Then in his second term as secretary of state, Rokita proposed making it a felony for lawmakers to consider politics when drawing political boundaries. He toured the state promoting his idea and drew up sample maps with new boundaries.

The Legislature bristled at Rokita’s suggestion, which would have given his office new power and disrupted lawmakers’ safe seats. The state Senate president-- a fellow Republican-- said Rokita had “crossed the line.”

Two years later, lawmakers gave Rokita his due: The Legislature drew Rokita, who by then was serving his first term in Congress, out of his district. His home sat just 500 yards from the line-- a slight that lawmakers called coincidental and Rokita publicly labeled as “comeuppance.” (Rokita would later move into his new district.)

Messer had a very different experience in the Legislature: He was appointed to a state House seat in May 2003, and by 2005 was serving in the chamber’s leadership. After a Time magazine story spotlighted Indiana as a center of the high school dropout crisis, Messer embraced school reform and found support from Gov. Mitch Daniels, as well as Indiana’s elite donors.

Rokita eyed running for Senate in 2010, but opted instead to run for the House. He arrived on Capitol Hill in 2011 and within months found himself at the center of a national clash after he joined other newly elected conservatives in refusing to vote to raise the debt ceiling, enraging House leaders. Messer ran for Congress in 2010 unsuccessfully, but succeeded two years later on his third try. The Wabash grads then found themselves rubbing elbows-- and at times, throwing them-- on Capitol Hill.

Messer again rose up the ranks fast: Within two years he was elected as chair of the House Republican Policy Committee. And he again embraced education by leading a school choice caucus, hosting rallies attended by John Boehner and Eric Cantor that featured Messer as the smiling emcee.

While Rokita appears endlessly willing to take on unpopular-- but important-- fights, Messer has been quick to build coalitions and quickly rose to leadership positions in both the state House and in Congress.

But Messer’s skill at listening to people and building coalitions can have downsides as well, a GOP strategist warned. “Luke’s personality is to try to placate both sides. You may not ultimately satisfy anybody,” he said.

And Rokita, who led an education subcommittee, jockeyed with Messer for prominence on their key issue. In 2015, he was working diligently on a major education bill when Messer nearly unraveled a year’s work. Messer made a stand in favor of adopting school vouchers, a controversial issue that jeopardized the bill; Rokita fumed to colleagues until Messer backed down.

Today, both men are fuming in public as they launch their campaigns. Both say they’re focused on running campaigns that can eventually defeat Donnelly-- but they frequently fall back into a now-familiar habit, nipping at each other instead of their Democratic foe.

But there’s also an upshot for people like Grand, the Indiana lobbyist, who happens to share an alma mater with the two Indiana congressmen.

“Either way,” Grand said, “Wabash College wins.”

The most recent poll by right-wing polling firm, GS Strategy, shows Rokita leading significantly. It's going to take a really gi-mormous anti-Trump/anti-McConnell/anti-Ryan tsunami for the Democrats to hold Donnelly's seat. Having strong Democratic candidates down-ballot-- like Dan Canon in the 9th district, for example-- will, ironically, help turnout for Republican-lite Donnelly.