The Comeback Codger

The big winner Tuesday night was Trump, as the same feeble and untenable Democratic establishment turned out its zombies to do exactly what they did in 2016-- hand the fascist leader a victory on a silver platter with a pointless status quo anti-change candidate. Biden, a nearly brain dead and completely flawed candidate who should be in a nursing home hot drinking hot cocoa was crowned champion of the anti-working class wing of the Democratic Party, by voters generally too stupid to know any better on the one hand, and voters as self-serving and greedy as any group of Republicans on the other hand. Sorry if that fits you. Go read Daily Kos or some other blog.

Tuesday morning before dawn, the Washington Post published a piece by Matt Viser noting that "A parade of establishment Democrats began coalescing around Joe Biden on Monday, an attempt to bolster the former vice president and stall Sen. Bernie Sanders’s ascent as voters in 14 states prepared to cast ballots Tuesday, the most consequential day of the presidential nominating contest." Viser didn't mention that Obama had spent hours on the phones pulling the strings that could help anoint ole Status Quo Joe... and guarantee a second catastrophic term for Trumpanzee.

Team Biden all got onto planes-- what heroism!-- and headed for Dallas to invigorate Biden's sputtering-to-life Texas campaign. Even L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti-- whose record on homelessness has made him 110% toxic in his own city-- showed up... joined Mayo Pete, Klobuchar and Beto! in Dallas.

Alex Slater, one of the dozens of DC lobbyists who made up the backbone of the Mayo Pete campaign, sent a letter out to everyone online who had ever contributed any money to a Democratic Party candidate. His letter, in part:

Some want to wait until after tonight's results or beyond before choosing who to support. I respect that-- it’s barely 24 hours since Pete conceded, and each candidate has legitimate merits. Also, who wants to be proven wrong twice? These are very legitimate positions. But listening to many of you I have personally come to the belief that the political moment deserves action and conviction.

That’s why I’m firmly following Pete’s lead in endorsing Vice President Joe Biden, joining to support his campaign and asking you to consider doing this same.

As I told the Wall Street Journal last night: “Biden is the clear choice to carry the Buttigieg legacy in this campaign.’  It feels inappropriate to pivot so fast, but the situation is urgent and the decision is clear. Mathematically, Joe Biden has by far the best shot at beating Bernie Sanders in this race. And politically, Joe Biden is the best equipped to take on Donald Trump in November.

In endorsing last night, Pete declared that he is joining a campaign that speaks to the soul of the nation. He’s right. Pete for America tried to model the principles of dignity, empathy and respect-- principles Vice President has been practicing his whole life. That’s part of the reason Joe Biden can mobilize a broad base of our party and reach out to moderates.

And on the issues.that affect Pete’s generation (and younger), the Vice President has an exceptional record on climate change, fair housing, gun violence and the passage of the affordable care act-- legally threatened once again today.

Finally, and critically, Joe Biden has the best chance of carrying state and down-ballot races. And in the event of a Republican controlled Senate he’ll have a better chance of passing his agenda. Read Ross Douthat on that.

I realize many of you may not be ready. And/but/when you are, please consider getting involved.

First, join the finance team or host an event with me on March 12. I’ve been talking to the campaign since yesterday-- they report a surge in support and need people to host events with the Vice President or surrogates. Reply to this email if you're interested.

Second, you can MEET THE VICE PRESIDENT HIMSELF THIS FRIDAY in DC in an event for which I’ve jumped on the host committee.

Year after year, Americans rate lobbyists as the least trustworthy people in the country. Politicians are rated only marginally more trustworthy. Everyone knows both groups lie for a living. And the more successful they are at seeming to be telling the truth, the more influence they accrue and the more money they make. That whole class is now the face of the increasingly senile Status Quo Joe and his putrid campaign for the presidency.

Viser captured the moment: "Biden seemed taken aback by the swift change in fortunes. He told Buttigieg that he reminded him of his late son, Beau, the highest compliment he can offer. He told the crowd Klobuchar has a long political future ahead, and he told O’Rourke, whose candidacy was marked by liberal positions on gun control, 'You’re going to take care of the gun problem with me. You’re going to be the one who leads this effort.'"

It was the second straight day that moderates, previously paralyzed over whom to rally behind, rushed to join Biden’s campaign. Harry M. Reid, a former Senate majority leader from Nevada, endorsed Biden along with other Democrats including Susan E. Rice, a former national security adviser to President Barack Obama; political activist and actress Alyssa Milano; Victoria Reggie Kennedy, the widow of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA); and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL).

There are still looming questions about Biden-- his propensity for gaffes, the moments when he searches for words or, on Monday, his struggle to come up with well-worn phrases in the Declaration of Independence before shouting, “You know . . . the thing!”-- but his campaign has found unmistakable new momentum that it is hoping to carry into the elections Tuesday.

Not everyone was playing to his benefit, however. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg both pledged Monday to stay in the race.

...Sanders remains perhaps the most formidable force in the race, finishing in the top two in all four early states and holding on to a polling advantage in numerous delegate-rich states that will vote Tuesday. He also has a significant financial edge and a grass-roots army that Biden so far has lacked, and he was defiant Monday in the face of the moderate consolidation.

“Look, we are taking on the establishment. And I fully understand-- no great surprise to me-- that establishment politicians are not going to endorse us,” Sanders told reporters in Salt Lake City, just minutes before the news broke that Klobuchar was ending her campaign and planning to support Biden.

“The establishment will rally around the establishment candidate,” he said. “That’s the simple reality.”

Shortly after Reid announced his endorsement of Biden, Faiz Shakir, who is Sanders’s campaign manager but also worked for Reid, wrote on Twitter: “Disappointing. I’ll forever have respect and love for Senator Reid. But I’m old enough to remember when he thought Biden’s ideas were worthy of being put in a fireplace.”

Now let's look at this chart released Monday night by Advanced Symbiotics after their Artificial Intelligence tool, Polly, recalculated the Super Tuesday results in 7 important Super Tuesday states after Klobuchar and Mayo had dropped out and urged their supporters to switch to Status Quo Joe.

Click on the image to make it legible

I explicitly challenged Polly over Minnesota, where she assumed that virtually all of Klobuchar's supporters would switch to Biden, giving him a win over Bernie. Polly was correct; I was wrong. I put too much faith in Minnesota voters.

In 2016 Bernie had beaten Hillary in Minnesota's caucuses 118,195 (61.6%) to 73,510 (38.4%). In fact, he beat her in all 8 congressional districts. He also had significantly more votes that Trump in every single congressional district, including in the red districts. The reddest district in the state, MN-06, has a PVI of R+12 was Bachmann's old district and is now occupied by the head of the NRCC, Tom Emmer. Bernie's win over Hillary was significant there-- 7,881 (62.4%) to 4,756 (37.6%)-- but Bernie also out-polled Trump, who came in 3rd with 4,005. (Marco Rubio came in first in the GOP primary and Bernie had almost 2,000 more votes than he had as well.) Yesterday, Klobuchar's supporters followed her suggestion and backed Biden.

Bernie came in first in just 4 states-- California, Vermont, Utah and Colorado-- while Status Quo Joe came in first in 9-- Alabama, Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Massachusetts and-- I lost my bet-- Minnesota. Maine is too close to call. And Maine will be splitting it's delegates pretty evenly between Biden and Bernie no matter what happens.

Nationally, Biden will have won more delegates by the time all the counting is done. This is what we have as of this morning:

• Alabama (52 delegates)-- 40 Biden, 7 Bernie, 1 Bloomberg
• Arkansas (31 delegates)-- 16 Biden, 8 Bernie, 4 Bloomberg
• California (415 delegates)-- 72 Bernie, 21 Biden, 8 Bloomberg, 7 Elizabeth
• Colorado (66 delegates)-- 20 Bernie, 9 Biden, 9 Bloomberg, 1 Elizabeth
• Maine (24 delegates)-- 8 Bernie, 8 Biden, 2 Elizabeth
• Massachusetts (91 delegates)-- 34 Biden, 26 Bernie, 17 Elizabeth
• Minnesota (75 delegates)-- 38 Biden, 26 Bernie, 10 Elizabeth
• North Carolina (110 delegates)
• Oklahoma (37 delegates)-- 21 Biden, 13 Bernie, 3 Bloomberg
• Tennessee (64 delegates)-- 28 Biden, 15 Bernie, 7 Bloomberg, 1 Elizabeth
• Texas (228 delegates)-- 56 Biden, 50 Bernie, 4 Bloomberg
• Utah (29 delegates)-- 9 Bernie, 2 Bloomberg, 1 Biden
• Vermont (16 delegates)-- 11 Bernie, 5 Biden
• Virginia (99 delegates)-- 66 Biden, 31 Bernie, 2 Elizabeth
• American Samoa (6 delegates)-- 4 Bloomberg, 1 Tulsi
• Americans Abroad (13 delegates)-- voting ends March 10

Important down-ballot races in California's jungle primary:

• CA-12- Progressive Democrat Shahid Buttar beat the Republican trying to challenge Pelosi and Buttar will be on the general election ballot against her. You can contribute to his campaign here.

• CA-16- Corporate whore and Blue Dog Jim Costa (37.46%) will face Republican Kevin Cookingham, (38.54%) having weathered an attack by a moderate Dem, Esmeralda Soria (18.37%) and progressive Kim Williams (5.63%).

• CA-22- Useless conservative Democrat Phil Arballo (23.7%) will lose to Devin Nunes (59.9%) in the general election, having beaten out progressives Bobby Bliatout (11.2%) and Dary Rezvani (2.8%).

• CA-25- Conservative Democrat Christy Smith (29.79%) will face GOP newcomer Mike Garcia (25.53%), with ex-Rep Steve Knight (20.13%) in 3rd and progressive champion Cenk Uygur (5.19%) in 4th. Trump coffee boy George Papadopoulos came in 9th with 1.93% of the vote.

• CA-50- Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar (34.39%) will face off against Republican ex-Rep Darrell Issa (24.86%) and not Republican Carl DeMaio (20.98%).

• CA-53- Establishment heiress Sara Jacobs and progressive Georgette Gómez will face off in the general election, both having beaten Republican Chris Stoddard, despite some last minute dirty tricks by Jacobs to boost Stoddard. You can contribute to Gómez here.

There was a big Republican race for the right to challenge conservative Democrat Doug Jones for his Senate seat. There will be a runoff between two extreme right Republicans, Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions. Hopefully no one will ever hear Roy Moore's name again until her funeral.

• Tommy Tuberville- 235,461 (32%)
• Jeff Sessions- 227,492 (31%)
• Bradley Byrne- 195,450 (27%)
• Roy Moore- 50,988 (7%)

The Texas Senate race was close, but the two establishment candidates-- M.J. Hegar (22.57%) and Royce West (14.16%) will be facing off in a runoff, having beaten the progressive in the contest, Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez (13.66%).

Among House Democratic candidates there was some good news and some bad news. The worst news was that Republican-backed New Dem (the fakest of the fake Democrats) Henry Cuellar narrowly beat progressive champion Jessica Cisneros 38,767 (51.84%) to 36,021 (48.16%). That last minute injection of Koch brothers money won the day for the DCCC's candidate.

Much better news in TX-10, where progressive Mike Siegel came out on top against two pointless establishment Dems with no reason to be running other than self-gratification. Siegel will face Gandhi in a runoff. You can contribute to Mike's campaign here.

• Mike Siegel- 21,051 (45.17%)
• Pritesh Gandhi- 14,858 (31.88%)
• Shannon Hutcheson- 10,698 (22.95%)

TX-24 will see a runoff between Kim Olson (41.7%) and progressive Candace Valenzuela (30.2%).

TX-25 was a win-win situation for Dems with two great candidates, Julie Oliver and Heidi Sloan. Julie won with 70% of the vote and you can contribute to her campaign here.

Get Used To It-- Despite The Media Elites, Bernie May Well Win The Nomination And The Election

The New York Times released the results of the new Siena poll of Iowa caucus goers yesterday under the slightly ominous headline Sanders Siezes Lead In Volatile Iowa Race. Times in house Bernie hater Sydney Ember wrote that "Senator Bernie Sanders has opened up a lead in Iowa just over a week before the Democratic caucuses, consolidating support from liberals and benefiting from divisions among more moderate presidential candidates who are clustered behind him, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely caucusgoers... The rise of Mr. Sanders has come at the expense of his fellow progressive, Senator Elizabeth Warren: she dropped from 22 percent in the October poll, enough to lead the field, to 15 percent in this survey... Despite Mr. Sanders’s ascent, the combined strength of the moderate candidates is unmistakable. The poll showed that 55 percent of those surveyed said they preferred a standard-bearer who is 'more moderate than most Democrats.' Just 38 percent said they wanted one who is 'more liberal than most Democrats.'... Should he prevail in Iowa and face a similarly fractured field of mainstream rivals in New Hampshire, where he also currently leads in the polls, Mr. Sanders could be difficult to slow... [S]hould no clear moderate alternative to Mr. Sanders emerge from the early nominating states, the self-financing Michael R. Bloomberg, who has already spent more than $260 million on advertising and hired more than 1,000 staff members, is awaiting the field on Super Tuesday in early March.

But first is Iowa, where the race remains up for grabs to an unusual degree so late in the race: In the Times poll, nearly 40 percent of voters said they could still be persuaded to caucus for a different candidate.

Mr. Sanders, however, has some of the most committed supporters in the race and, significantly, his advantage with Iowa Democrats does not ebb when the field is narrowed to only the top four candidates. The Vermont senator still leads by seven points in that scenario, according to the survey, capturing 30 percent of the vote while Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg both win 23 percent and Ms. Warren garners 19 percent.

These results are important because of how the caucuses work in Iowa. Candidates must receive 15 percent support in a precinct to reach what is called viability, meaning they are eligible to win delegates. If a candidate falls short of that number, his or her supporters can either leave the caucus or support better-performing contenders for the second and final vote of the evening. So voters’ second choices can prove crucial.

Ms. Warren, according to the poll, is the top second-choice preference of caucusgoers, which could lift her candidacy after the initial vote. But that is in part because she is the preferred alternative for those who support Mr. Sanders, who will most likely meet the viability threshold in nearly all of the caucuses.

Ms. Klobuchar’s supporters could play the most crucial role, though, should she fail to achieve 15 percent in most precincts. When voters were asked whom they would support if they were left with only four choices-- Mr. Sanders, Mr. Buttigieg, Mr. Biden and Ms. Warren-- Mr. Biden was the overwhelming favorite of Ms. Klobuchar’s backers. He received 55 percent of them in this scenario while Ms. Warren received 18 percent.

While Ember was gaming out ways more Wall Street-friendly candidates-- her husband is a Wall Street whore-- could beat Bernie, CNN's big Iowa story yesterday was how Biden had picked up an endorsement from a virtually unknown and completely uninfluential hack politician who CNN decided is a "key Iowa swing district congresswoman." Arlette Saenz reported that "Joe Biden has earned the Democratic presidential endorsement of Iowa Rep. Cindy Axne, giving the former vice president a boost at a critical time-- just nine days before the state's caucuses." Many Iowans-- even in her own district-- might be asking, "Who?"

Last cycle, Cindy Axne was in the right place at the right time and defeated Republican Party incumbent, closet case David Young, 175,642 (49.3%) to 167,933 (47.1%). She won blue-leaning Polk County (Des Moines) and lost the 15 other counties in the district. She outraised Young $5,200,723 to $2,759,712. (Young is looking for a re-match again this year and she is against out-raising him gigantically and has collected more from corporate PACs than Young has!) Once she was elected, she immediately joined the Wall street-owned and operated New Dems, started gorging herself on sewer money and ran up one of the worst voting records of any Democrat in Congress, although not quite as bad as Jeff Van Drew's. She votes against progressive legislation and proposals far more than for them and has been rated an "F" by ProgressivePunch. Only 7 Democrats in the House have voted further right than Axne has since she was elected. Michigan Independent Justin Amash's 54.39% vote score is heads and shoulders above her pathetic 38.60%. She's pretty typical of the kind of Democrat in Congress who has been endorsing Status Quo Joe.

Yesterday, Politico reported that Status Quo Joe spent two days in New Hampshire without taking any questions from voters at his public events, "a striking break from tradition in the first-in-the-nation primary state... He made no mention of the state’s opioid epidemic, which polls consistently show is the biggest issue facing the state. Voters at the events said they also would have liked to hear about his plans for health care, the cost of prescription drugs and the economy." Over at the Washington Post, Matt Viser noted that Biden-- like Trump-- is barely comprehensible when he speaks. The Beltway media, which has consistently pointed out that Trump speaks on a 4th grade level, insists that Biden's inability to communicate ideas is kind of cute, "imparting some family wisdom, passing along a few of the aphorisms he'd learned over his 77 years," according to Viser.

“With the grace of God and goodwill of the neighbors, as my grandfather used to say,” he began before turning to one from his father: “Don’t tell me what you value, show me your budget. I’ll tell you what you value.”

His wife, too, had a saying he wanted to share: “My wife has an expression: Any country that out educates us will out compete us.”

Finally, there was his mother: “If my mother were here, she’d say, ‘Joe, hush up and start taking some questions.’”

In the middle of explanations of tax policy, recollections of his years as vice president or attacks on President Trump’s fitness for office, Biden has a seemingly endless supply of family sayings that at any given moment can unspool like a long piece of Irish yarn.

Some are concise and border on the cliche; others are more elaborate. It’s hard to know which ones are truly original to the extended Biden clan, but there’s no doubt that many have come to serve as a sort of soundtrack over a decades-long political career-- and now for Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign.

These “Bidenisms,” whether by design or simply because it’s the way he talks, come tucked into his often meandering speeches in a way that speaks to the family heritage, folksiness and twinkle-eyed nostalgia that have become core elements of his political brand...They are the fortune cookie sayings, a bit of Biden family proverbs imbued in the Irishman.

...The family sayings are another iteration of Biden’s unique speaking style, one that is injected with a “folks!” here, a “not a joke!” there and a “here’s the deal” everywhere. To drive a point home, he’ll say “My word as a Biden.” To draw a connection, he’ll say “God love ya.” And to express indignation, he favors “C’mon man!”

Still, listening to a Biden speech can be like walking through a maze, unsure of where or how it will end.

The other day, he turned a question about whether Trump has fundamentally altered the presidency into a treatise on the Luddites and looms. He paused-- “I shouldn’t have started this because it was too complicated, I know”-- before plowing forward, nonetheless. He went into job loss in the retail industry, a discussion about automated trucking, Brexit, demagoguery, mass shootings, the importance of honesty, and how good and decent people help one another fix their flat tires.

“I could go on and on,” he said and, after 10 minutes, it was time for the next question.

...Sometimes, they can be an excuse.

At the launch of his 2008 campaign, Biden came under criticism for calling Barack Obama “the first mainstream African American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.” As part of his round of explanations, he said, “I really regret that some have taken totally out of context my use of the word, ‘clean.’”

He then argued that he was simply attempting to quote a phrase that had been passed down to him.

“My mother has an expression,” he told reporters. “Clean as a whistle, sharp as a tack.”

Biden may have been at one time-- but that would have been a long, long time ago.

Trump Continues Chipping Away At His Own Base

A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll found that 74% of Democrats (and people who lean Dem) would consider voting for AOC if she were old enough to run for president. They also asked voters to compare her to the senior senator from her state-- Chucky-Schmucky-- and Dems have a 70% favorable/22% unfavorable impression of her and a 64% favorable/29% unfavorable impression of Schumer. God is good! But let's get back to Señor T. Or more specifically to the people who voted for him. The Washington Post ran a fascinating report by Matt Viser yesterday, Part of Trump's Base Is Faulting Him For The Shutdown, which had to happen after the recent Marist polling finally showing his base starting to crack.

Viser began with an anecdote about Jeff Daudert, a 49-year-old retired Navy reservist from what Viser called "an area of blue-collar suburban Detroit that helped deliver Trump the presidency." He wrote that two years ago, Daudert "was fed up with politics. He wanted to shake up the status quo. He didn't mind sending a message to the establishment-- and, frankly, he liked the idea of a disruptive president." Now he's having second thoughts. "What the fuck were we thinking?"

While Trump's relationship with much of his base remains strong, two years after his inauguration his ties are fraying with voters like Daudert, the kind who voted in droves for Trump in 2016 in key pockets throughout the industrial Midwest and flipped previously Democratic states to him. The shutdown fight, as it has played out the past month, is further eroding his support among voters who like the idea of beefing up border security, but not enough to close the government.

Many here, even those who still support Trump, say they hold him most responsible. They recite his comment from the Oval Office that he would be “proud to shut down the government.” When he said it, they listened.

“It's silly. It's destructive,” Daudert said, adding that all he knows about 2020 is that he won't be supporting Trump. “I was certainly for the anti-status quo... I'll be more status quo next time.”

Here, far from the nation's capital and in an area not dominated by federal workers, the government shutdown is resonating in an unusual way. A trampoline park is giving government employees and their families an hour of free jumping. A local credit union is offering low-interest loans for furloughed employees who need to replace a lost salary.

Some local governments in the area are beginning to allow federal workers to defer property taxes, utility bills and parking tickets. Food drives are being discussed to help TSA workers at Detroit's airport, and a yoga studio is offering free classes for federal employees.

Recent polling indicates the shutdown has caused skittishness among parts of Trump's base, which has been one of the most enduring strengths of his presidency. A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, conducted Jan. 10 to Jan. 13, found his net approval rating had dropped seven points since December.

One of the biggest drops came from suburban men, whose approval rating fell a net change of 18 percentage points, while evangelicals and Republicans also dipped by smaller margins. Among men without a college degree, the downward change was seven points.

As Jeremiah Wilburn, a 45-year-old operating engineer, browsed the aisles at Walmart for a new pair of coveralls, he reflected on some of those shifts. Like many voters here, after siding twice in the elections with former President Barack Obama, he decided to gamble with Trump. And for most of the past two years, he was pleased. The economy was humming, jobs were flowing and wages seemed stable.

Until now.

“I was doing fine with him up until this government shutdown,” he said. “It's ridiculous. You're not getting the wall built for $5 billion. And Mexico is not paying for it, we all know that, too. Meanwhile, it's starting to turn people like me away.”

He worries about the impact the shutdown will have on the economy.

He's concerned about the impact on his brother, who works for the TSA in Florida.

To him, the shutdown standoff has also poked holes in Trump's ability to say that he cares for the working class, given that 800,000 federal employees and additional contractors going without a paycheck.

“You can't expect people to come to work without getting paid,” Wilburn said. “If I were them, I certainly wouldn't come to work.”

Other Trump fans have a whole different concern-- like Rudy G. He's worried about what his gravestone is going to say.

Saying things for Trump, not always being truthful about it-- do you ever worry that this will be your legacy? Does that ever worry you in any way?

Rudy: "Absolutely. I am afraid it will be on my gravestone. 'Rudy Giuliani: He lied for Trump.' Somehow, I don’t think that will be it. But, if it is, so what do I care? I’ll be dead. I figure I can explain it to St. Peter. He will be on my side, because I am, so far . . . I don’t think, as a lawyer, I ever said anything that’s untruthful."

Even though Trump is ranting and raving, calling him names and yelling and screaming about firing him, my guess is that unless Trump stiffs him on his fees, Giuliani will still be one of the 40% (or less) to vote for him in 2020.