Election Day Open Thread, I

 

Rather than just run pre-scheduled posts like every other day, the DWT election day coverage will include open threads between posts. This is my first. I invited Tom, Noah and Ken to do likewise.

The map up top predicts a big Trump loss, even if I'm wrong about Florida and if all 3 final toss-ups go to Trump.





I know it's getting late, but I want to remind you that if you want to vote Trump out of office today, but you haven't registered to vote yet, you can still cast ballots in 19 states + DC: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming. (H/T Ari Berman)

The final set of Change Research polls of the cycle found that voters who did not vote in 2016 are supporting Biden by a 23-point margin (59% Biden, 36% Trump).They also found that Gary Johnson voters are nearly twice as likely to support Biden over Trump or Jo Jorgensen this year (44% of Johnson voters are supporting Biden, 28% Trump, 24% Jorgensen).

 

In Senate races, they found Mark Kelly (D) leading Martha McSally (R) 51-47% in Arizona, Sara Gideon (D) leading Susan Collins (R) 46-42% in Maine, Cal Cunnimgham (D) leading Thom Tillis (R) 50-46% in North Carolina, Theresa Greenfield (D) leading Joni Ernst (R) 48-47% in Iowa, but Steve Daines (R) leading Steve Bullock 50-46% in Montana. Ironically, Bullock is the only person on the list who would probably make a decent senator.

The also polled key House races:

• NE-02- Kara Eastman beating Rep Don Bacon 48-47%
• NY-24- Dana Balter beating Rep John Katko 46-44%
• OK-05- 47-47 tie between Blue Dog Rep Kendra Horn and Stephanie Bice (R)
• AR-02- 48-48% tie between Joyce Elliott (D) and Rep French Hill (R)
• IN-05- 46-46% tie between Christina Hale (D) and Victoria Spartz (R)
• MO-02- 46-46% tie between Jill Schupp (D) and Rep Ann Wagner (R)
• OH-01- Rep Steve Chabot (R) beating Kate Schroder (D) 47-45%

Yesterday, Matt Taibbi explained why he couldn't bring himself to vote for Biden-Harris: "Trump’s incompetence and influence on the darkest part of the national character make it morally impossible to vote for him. But his opponents are lying, witch-hunting scum in their own right, a club of censorious bureaucrats whose instincts for democracy and free speech hover somewhere between the mid-seventies GDR and the Church of Scientology. I thought all year I’d be able to do it, but I wake up this week unable to talk myself into voting for these people, even against Trump. What choices they give us! Thank God at least it’s about to be over. If it’s about to be over. Please, let it be over." I didn't either. But Taibbi and I need the rest of you to save the world from Trump. So, unless you live in California, Massachusetts, New York and a few other states that allow for the luxury we've availed ourselves of... do your duty today.


UPDATE

Adam Stone, publisher of Examiner Media in Mt. Kisco, New York, leans kind of conservative in an old mainstream Republican way. Today he explained why he is urging his newspapers' readers to oppose Trump.

It’s been said that Trump is a poor man’s idea of a rich man, a weak man’s idea of a strong man and a stupid man’s idea of a smart man. But that belittles the intelligence and ability to judge character of so many intelligent and genuinely kind Trump voters. (And I’m distinguishing here between Trump voters and his most vociferous rally-going, bridge-blocking supporters).

The truth is, I don’t understand why these otherwise astute, normal people fail to see through the transparent con, or at least I don’t understand why they don’t care about the man’s deep and dangerous flaws. But, as I continue to try to understand why so many people refuse to believe what they see, why they won’t condemn behavior they’d admonish from a fellow parent on the sidelines of a youth soccer field but not in the leader of the free world, I’m reminded of the child in The Emperor’s New Clothes.

“But he hasn’t got anything on,” a little child reveals of the naked emperor in the fable while adults gush at the emperor’s phantom fancy clothing.

Trump might be wearing (and selling) a silly red hat but this small-minded, morally bankrupt, weak emperor is standing in front of us, stark naked. All you need to do is look and listen. Just don’t forget to believe what you see and hear. Character should trump all other considerations.

UPDATE 2

Congressional district polls that also asked about the presidential race indicate that Trump is doing even worse than the national polling shows he is. (Remember as you scan these districts the numbers are predictive of the presidential race not necessarily the House race. (In some cases House candidates are doing better than Biden and in other cases, Biden's coattails are helping them.) The districts we're looking at though, are just districts where progressive congressional candidates are in contention.

• AR-02 (Joyce Elliott)- Trump's margin was 10.7 and now Biden is leading by 3
• MI-06 (Jon Hoadley)- Trump's margin was 8.6 and he's now ahead by just 6.7
• NE-02 (Kara Eastman)- Trump's margin was 2.2 and now Biden is leading by 7
• NY-24 (Dana Balter)- Clinton's margin was 3.6 and now Biden is leading by 13
• TX-10 (Mike Siegel)- Trump's margin was 9.1 and now Biden has evened it up exactly
• TX-25 (Julie Oliver)- Trump's margin was 14.9 and he's now leading by 4

I also want to mention that there is a lot of chatter that several Blue Dogs could go down to defeat. I disagree. I hope they all lose but that hope is not going to bear fruit. One of the Washington Post columnists is predicting garbage freshmen Blue Dogs Xochitl Torres-Small (NM), Max Rose (NY), Anthony Brindisi (NY), Kendra Horn (OK), Joe Cunningham (SC) and Ben McAdams (UT) will lose. I hate to say it, but I think he's wrong. Trump's margins are down significantly in their districts. In fact, in Cunningham's district, Trump win by 13.1% and now he and Biden are essentially even. Trump won NY-11 (Rose) by 9.8 and is now winning with just 3. Trump's margin is way down in NM-02 (Torres-Small) as well-- from10.2% to just 6%. Trump won OK-05 by 13.4 and is now up by 6. Most disappointing-- for me and for many Democrats in the House who were hoping to get rid of him-- Brindisi's NY-22 shows Biden leading by, Trump having won it in 2016 by 15.5!

Is There One Single Best Member Of Congress? Have You Met Alan Grayson?

When Blue America weighs the pros and cons of endorsing a candidate for Congress, we often find ourselves measuring them by how similar he or she appears to be to Orlando Congressman Alan Grayson. Grayson is brilliant, courageous and, more than anyone else in the House, he defines progressivism. And you know what? One Congressman can matter. A lot-- that's why we're asking you to consider making a contribution to Grayson's reelection campaign today.

You've probably heard that Grayson passed more amendments than any other member of Congress. You've probably heard that he helped pass the first Federal media shield bill through the U.S. House of Representatives. But you probably haven't heard that he exposed a plot by the banks to form their own war council with a bunch of three letter agencies. This sounds crazy, but you can read this Bloomberg article, titled "Banks Dreading Computer Hacks Call for Cyber War Council." It's right there. Under the guise of fearing hackers and terrorists, banks have been seeking a formal way to influence the NSA and CIA into cyber-attacks. Alan Grayson is the member of Congress who exposed it, because he knows that exposure is the way to stop the banks from gaining power they shouldn't have.

This doesn't show up on a vote tally. It doesn't show up in the Congressional Record. It doesn't take a majority of Congress to do this. It takes one person, who puts the time and effort in. That's what makes Alan Grayson special. As Martin Sheen said in the video up top, "Last year, when the prospect of war between the United States and Syria reared its ugly head, Alan Grayson worked tirelessly to convince both his colleagues and the American people to give peace a chance. Alan Grayson not only won that fight, but he also established a critical principle-- that when it's our blood to be spilled and when its our money to be spent, then it's our decision to make. Tireless, tough, creative, articulate, honest, poised and persuasive, Alan Grayson has become one of the bold leaders of the renewed peace movement here in America."



Grayson is doing a money bomb this week and Blue America wants to make sure all of our members know about it. You can contribute here. As Alan said:

"'Government of the people?' Well, obviously. 'Government by the people?' Who else, space aliens? But 'Government for the people'-- that’s where the real debate is. And I know which side I’m on. I know which side Blue America is on. What about you?"

A last thought from Rep. Grayson: "We need your help in the year 2014, not in the year 3114, when Hillary Clinton the XXXIII will be running against George Bush the XXXV for President. Now, not then. Oh, and just a reminder: we will be choosing one moneybomb contributor (donating $20.14 or more) to join Rep. Alan Grayson in Orlando on Election Day, or some other date that’s good for you. Come on, Mickey Mouse is dying to see you!"