Another Arizona Congressional Seat Ready For A Red To Blue Seat-- The Last Of Crooked Wing-Nut David Schweikert?

Of Congress' 3 most corrupt Republicans, only Schweikert (right) is still in office and not yet headed for prison

In 2016, Trump won David Schweikert's Phoenix area congressional district (AZ-06)-- but he did far worse than either McCain or Romney had. This is one of those rare districts where Hillary outpolled Obama. Entirely within Maricopa County, it includes the northern suburbs of Phoenix, from Paradise Valley and Scottsdale all the way to Fountain Hills in the east and Carefree in the north. The PVI is R+9, but Schweikert isn't as safe as someone in a district that red-- on paper at least-- should be. And his congressional race is the hottest in the state this cycle.

The top two Democrats vying to challenge him are Anita Malik, who ran against Schweikert in 2018 and did poorly, and Hiral Tipirneni, who ran in the much redder (R+13) 8th district in Phoenix's conservative West Valley. As of July 15, Tipirneni is the top fundraiser for the seat, $2,466,261 as opposed to Schweikert's $1,321,631 and Malik's $242,848. Tipirneni, a garden variety establishment Dem backed by the DCCC and EMILY's List, will probably win Tuesday's primary. She doesn't have much to offer woke voters except that she's not Trump or Schweikert and in a heavily college-educated district... being a garden variety Democrat might be enough this cycle. Besides, Schweikert's a mess, a member of the far right House Freedom Caucus, hated by some Republicans who remember the vicious whispering campaign he orchestrated against Dan Quayle's son, Ben in 2012, and many of his constituents have had enough of him.

Yesterday, Ron Hansen summed up one part of Schweikert's woes in a piece for the Arizona Republic, In deal, Rep. David Schweikert admits 11 ethics violations, to pay $50,000 fine. Basically, Schweikert's crooked and there has been a constant drip, drip, drip about his behavior for several cycles. By admitting his crimes, he's also admitting he's been lying to his constituents about it since 2017, although he's still trying to slither out from under the charges, insinuating for example that though he's ultimately responsible, it was people who worked for him who were the criminals not him (a lie).

The committee found "substantial evidence" of violations by the five-term Arizona Republican stretching from 2010 into 2018 and faulted him for evasive, stalling tactics that helped him skirt more serious violations.

As it was, the violations the committee did find include undisclosed loans and campaign contributions; misuse of campaign funds for personal purposes; improper spending by his office; and an environment where office staffers were pressured to do political work.

...[T]he committee found that Schweikert was less than forthcoming and cooperative. His stonewalling tactics could be sanctioned by themselves, but the delays may have helped avert more serious problems for Schweikert, the committee wrote.

"Throughout the course of this investigation, Representative Schweikert made vague or misleading statements to the (investigative subcommittee) and (the Office of Congressional Ethics) that allowed him to evade the statute of limitations for the most egregious violations of campaign finance laws, his document productions were slow or non-responsive to several of the ISC’s requests for information regarding (Federal Election Commission) errors, and he gave self-serving testimony that lacked candor," the report said.

"Efforts like the ones Representative Schweikert undertook to delay and impede the ISC’s investigation were not only highly detrimental to the Committee’s work and reputation of the House, they were themselves sanctionable misconduct."

The committee’s report said Schweikert’s violations were a troubling example to avoid for other members of the House of Representatives.

"While all of the violations detailed above were concerning, the Committee was disturbed by the events described in counts three and four... in particular. Those counts detailed how Representative Schweikert’s campaign committee falsely reported that he had loaned the campaign $100,000, when no such loan had been made, and then falsely reported making $100,000 in disbursements, which served to adjust the campaign’s reported cash on hand that was propped up by the fictitious loan," the report said.

"These errors were not only flagrant and egregious violations of campaign finance law, the falsely reported loan improperly inflated his campaign’s finances, thus making Representative Schweikert’s campaign appear to meet its financial goals while depriving the public of accurate and transparent accounting of the true state of his campaign."

For nearly two years, Schweikert publicly maintained the matter under investigation was little more than a bookkeeping dispute.

After the separate Office of Congressional Ethics, which helps screen potential cases for the Ethics Committee, revealed its investigative findings against Schweikert's longtime former chief of staff, Oliver Schwab, in June 2019, Schweikert political adviser Chris Baker shifted tone. He acknowledged serious problems had existed and said Schweikert’s trust in Schwab "was grossly misplaced."

...The report deals another blow to Schweikert, whose Scottsdale-based congressional district is historically safe ground for the GOP. But the Republican-leaning district is the kind of suburban, relatively well-educated location that has drifted toward Democrats, especially in the Trump era.

Schweikert has struggled to raise money throughout the current campaign cycle and his best-funded Democrat, Hiral Tipirneni, had a $1 million cash advantage over him through mid-July.

For Schweikert, a member of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, the allegations of misspending hit directly at the heart of his political persona as a budget and finance expert.

Arizona, where there is no mask mandate, is having one of the worst pandemics of any state in the country. Today, another 3,212 new cases were confirmed, bringing the total to 174,010, which comes to a horrifying-- and increasing-- 23,907 cases per million Arizonans. The only state with a worse number is Louisiana. Many independent voters rightly blame the disaster on Trump and his enablers. Gov. Doug Ducey isn't on the ballot but Trump is and extremely unpopular Republican Senator Martha McSally is and both are are expected to be albatrosses around the necks of vulnerable Republican officeholders necks, none more so than David Schweikert.

Maricopa County, Arizona Will Be One Of The Hottest Electoral Focal Points Of 2020

In 2016 Trump won Arizona's most populous county, Maricopa, in a relatively low turnout that yielded a 590,465 (49.1%) to 549,040 (45.7%) victory for Trump against Hillary. Two years-- and a lot of crazy lies and incompetence-- later, in the open-seat Senate election, the turn-out was much, much bigger and Maricopa flipped blue. Kyrsten Sinema beat Martha McSally 732,761 (51.0%) to 672,505 (46.8%). Usually presidential years are gigantically bigger than midterms. It was different in in 2016 and 2018. In 2016 there were two candidates who were seen as ultimately flawed and thousands of voters just sat it out, something that could happen again if the Democrats are stupid enough to nominate senile fool Joe Biden. In 2018, both candidates were also complete crap but the danger that Trump is, was already starting to manifest itself and voters in the county moved to put a check on Trump by electing a Democrat to the previously Republican-held seat. It wasn't an election about Sinema or McSally; it was all about Trump. (This is, of course, Biden's only chance to prevail-- that voters will be so negative about Trump, that they will ignore his own not-quite-as-bad flaws.)

On the same day in 2018, the gubernatorial election, which was not an especially Trump-impactied election, Maricopa voted for Republican Doug Ducey against Democrat David Garcia, 800,210 (55.9%) to 603,055 (42.1%).

Maricopa County includes all of 5 congressional districts and a part of several others. These are the districts that are entirely within Maricopa County and how they voted in 2018. All incumbents were reelected and the one open seat stayed blue:

• AZ-05

• Andy Biggs (R)- 186,037 (59.4%)
• Joan Greene (D)- 127,027 (40.6%)

• AZ-06

• David Schweikert (R)- 173,140 (55.2%)
• Anita Malik (D)- 140,559 (44.8%)

• AZ-07

• Ruben Gallego (D)- 113,044 (85.8%)
• Gary Swing (Green)- 18,706 (14.2%)

• AZ-08

• Debbie Lesko (R)- 168,835 (55.5%)
• Hiral Tipirneni (D)- 135,569 (44.5%)

• AZ-09

• Greg Stanton (D)- 159,583 (61.1%)
• Steve Ferrara (R)- 101,662 (38.9%)

Why bring this up now? Arizona is considered one of the most key swing states for 2020. Trump is underwater in the state and Martha McSally, who was appointed to the other Senate seat, is looking extremely vulnerable and seems to be losing in early polling match-ups with putative Democrat Mark Kelly. And in Maricopa County, there's a local election that will have a ton of attention nationally. On Sunday, convicted criminal and ex-Sheriff, pardoned by Trump 2 years ago, Joe Arpaio announced he's running for his old job again. "'Watch out world! We are back!' Arpaio, 87, said in a statement in which he promised to reinstate the extreme measures that made him famous, like housing immigrants in outdoor tents in the 100-degrees-plus temperatures of the Phoenix area. Arpaio was defeated for re-election to what would have been a record seventh term as sheriff in November 2016, shortly after he was charged with contempt of court for having ignored a federal judge's order to stop arresting immigrants solely on suspicion that they were in the country illegally."

• Paul Penzone (D)- 861,757 (56.4%)
• Joe Arpaio (R)- 665,581 (43.6%)

Wow! Recall that Hillary got 549,040 votes in Maricopa County that day, 312,717 fewer than Penzone. (And Trump got around 100,000 votes fewer than Arpaio!)

Last year, Arpaio lost a Republican primary race for the U.S. Senate to Rep. Martha McSally. Arpaio reveled in his reputation as America's toughest sheriff, which led him to be the target of several civil rights lawsuits. He boasted that:

• He forced inmates to wear pink underwear.
• He fed inmates only twice a day with a bland log called "Nutraloaf," which other prisons serve as a disciplinary measure.
• He subjected inmates to an in-house radio station that played patriotic music and opera for 20 hours a week. He called the station KJOE.

In 2008 and 2010, a federal judge ruled that Arpaio's jails violated the constitutional rights of inmates when it came to medical care.

Arpaio was also famous for housing prisoners in outdoor tents that he himself called concentration camps, where inmates complained that fans were inoperative and that their shoes melted.

He was reported to have responded to the complaints by saying, "It's 120 degrees in Iraq, and the soldiers are living in tents, and they didn't commit any crimes, so shut your mouths."

Alessandra Soler, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Arizona, on Sunday called Arpaio a "racist" who should "never hold public office again."

"When Joe Arpaio talks about 'those who break the law,' he should be referring to himself," Soler said, adding: "President Trump might've pardoned him, but those who had families and communities destroyed by his unlawful tactics have not."

In his announcement on Sunday, Arpaio lamented that "the last four years have proven to be a time of lost opportunities to continue the kind of tough policing this county needs."

And he warned that his enemies would do their worst to make sure he isn't re-elected.

"During the past several years, his opponents, activists and political figures on the Left, have utilized slanderous attacks on him through the fake and biased news media to try and keep him from being heard, but these efforts have failed," the statement said. "However, he expects these attacks will continue in full force, even more so with today's announcement."

Arpaio's opponents are likely to include Jerry Sheridan, who strongly supported Arpaio as his chief deputy for the last six years Arpaio was sheriff.

Sheridan announced in February that he is also seeking the Republican nomination to challenge Sheriff Paul Penzone, who defeated Arpaio with 56 percent of the vote in 2016. He said Sunday that he would remain in the race.

"My focus has always been on getting the bad guys, not headlines," Sheridan said in a statement, according to NBC affiliate KPNX of Phoenix. "We need a professional and proven lawman to win this office back and the voters have already made it clear they will not vote for Joe."