Monday, October 29, 2018

Early Voting Numbers Continue To Astound

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This is the first week of early voting in the city of Racine. Turn-out is not just higher than for the last midterm (2014), but higher than for the 2016 presidential election. District-wide, Democratic parts of Wisconsin's first district-- like Janesville and Kenosha as well as Racine-- are over 2016 levels, while Republican areas-- Waukesha, for example-- are lagging. This is good news for Randy Bryce and for statewide Democrats Tammy Baldwin and Tony Evers.

Yesterday, NBC reported that midterm voter enthusiasm, nationally, is reaching the same kind of historic levels that it its in WI-01. Dante Chinni and Sally Bronston wrote that for all the uncertainty pundits and journalists may be seeing regarding the outcome, "one thing seems clear: A lot of people are going to go to be voting. From poll data to actual early ballots, the signs point to 2018 as a blockbuster midterm in terms of turnout. Last week’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal showed truly notable numbers for the percentage of voters who are highly interested in the election.
Overall, 65 percent of those surveyed said they had high interest in this midterm election. That figure is higher than any number seen recently. The closest election was 2006, when 61 percent said they were highly interested in that midterm. Furthermore, the trend in the data holds true for a wide range of demographic groups from women to Democrats and Republicans to white, African–American and Hispanic voters.

Beyond the polls, there’s more concrete evidence that voters are revved up for November. Looking at early ballots that have already been cast, the number two weeks out was actually ahead of where they were in 2016. More than 8.1 million people have already voted in 2018, according to data from TargetSmart. Two weeks before Election Day in 2016, the figure was 7.9 million.




...Georgia, Tennessee and Texas have each seen an increase of more than 500,000 early votes compared to the same point in the 2014 election. In each of those states the early 2018 vote has more than doubled compared to the same point in 2014, according to TargetSmart data.

And the ballot in all of those states this year looks similar to 2014-- they each have a Senate and gubernatorial race this year just as they did in 2014.

Arizona, Florida and Nevada, three other states with important Senate races this year that didn’t have one in 2014, are also seeing big boosts in their early vote-- all double-digits in terms of percentages.

...Whatever happens when everything is tallied, whoever wins and loses, it will be difficult for anyone to cite voter apathy as a cause. These numbers show an electorate that is involved in the 2018 election and ready to show it at the ballot box. This is what an engaged citizenry looks like.

Kendra Fershee probably has the steeped path to victory of any of the candidates we've endorsed. Her district's PVI is R+19 and Trump crushed Hillary there 68-26%. But... Bernie not only beat Hillary in the district on primary day, in many of the district's 20 counties he also beat Trump! Take Monongalia County: Bernie 8,096; Trump 5,971. Or Wetzel : Bernie 1,744; Trump 1,096. And Marion: 5,324; Trump: 4,035. Kendra is not running the kind of Republican-lite campaign the DCCC prefers to lose with. She's running on progressive populist issues that appeal to voters in northern West Virginia. "Our voter turnout appears to be up significantly," she told me today, "with Dems outnumbering Republicans by a 55-45 margin (that data specificity is limited to day 1 of early voting). As compared to other midterm general elections, my home county appears to have already exceeded, after four days of early voting, the average number of votes for the entire ten days of early voting."

Way up in the northwest corner of California sits one of the reddest pockets in the state, CA-01, where progressive champion Audrey Denney is challenging Trump rubber stamp, Doug LaMalfa. She told me yesterday that her staff had dug into the PDI data late last week and saw that the district had one of the highest-- or the highest-- rate of Latino and millennial returned ballots anywhere in the state.

According to the Texas Tribune "As of day five of early voting, 2,146,117 Texans have cast in-person ballots and 280,444 have cast mail-in ballots in the 30 counties where most registered voters in the state-- 78 percent-- live. That preliminary turnout has surpassed the total votes cast in those counties during the entire two-week early voting period in the last midterm election in 2014. So far this year, 19.8 percent of the 12.3 million registered voters in those 30 counties have voted."

Let's look at Dallas County, which has turned very blue in recent years. Two years ago Hillary eviscerated Trump there-- 458,845 (61.1%) to 261,865 (34.9%). The higher than normal early voter turnout is headed towards beating the 2016 presidential year, which augers very well for Beto and is likely going to see Colin Allred replace Pete Sessions in Congress-- and if not for the sheer incompetence of the DCCC would see Democrats in serious contention against Kenny Marchant and for the open 5th district Hensarling seat.




Dayna Steele's campaign manager, Mitch Zaiman, told me that the turn-out in TX-36, east of Houston, "has been extremely high. Early voting and vote by mail totals have surpassed '14 totals. While several counties have reporting delays, we currently have '85,516 voted' reported, putting us well above 2014 totals. District wide turnout is at 19.3% with nearly a week left to go until the end of early voting. Harris County itself is at 20% turnout through yesterday. The electorate has been exceedingly white and senior citizens so far but this keeps with previous trends. Yesterday, the first weekend of early voting did see more younger voters and people color turnout out as expected."



"Sustained turnout at these levels," he continued, "would be extremely positive for the campaign and Dems in general. There have been no indications of turnout dropping of yet. The question is whether these are voters who would have voted on election day regardless or if early voting allowed them to vote when they otherwise would not have. My guess is that the older, white voters would have voted anyway and that some people of color who are turning out on the weekends are taking advantage of early voting to cast a vote they might have otherwise missed. If this is the case, a relatively small percentage of crossover vote among traditional GOP voters would be enough to push us across the edge and win. If we see these levels of turnout continue through early voting and, if turnout on election day is 40-50% of the total vote, then we will have achieved the turnout to win. None of this is far outside the norm nationally but has never been seen in this district. Assuming all these things happen and trends from previous elections are not skewed we can win in a remarkably red district."

Goal ThermometerThe DCCC-- and therefor the pundits and journalists who take stenography from them-- wrote off Texas' 10th district even before the primary. But because the DCCC wasn't paying attention, a full-on reformer and progressive, Mike Siegel, won (with 70% of the vote) and has turned the gerrymandered district competitive. Early voting has been eye-popping. 80% of the voters live in Harris and Travis counties and there is record turnout for a midterm already-- with more women (52-48%) voting than men and unexpectedly big numbers for millennials. Contrary to past elections, there have been more voters in the Travis County parts of the district (Austin) than in the Harris County parts. Travis is bluer and Harris has a vote suppressing Republican county clerk who closes the earlier voting polls at 4:30, before most people get out of work, while Travis county is open 'til 7pm. Travis County has now registered 94.5% of eligible voters, something I've never heard of in my life. A quarter of all registered voters have already cast their ballots after just a week of early voting! Meanwhile, Mike has huge field operations not just in Travis and Harris counties, but also in Bastrop County and in Waller County, where standing up to local voter suppression and racism-- and two nights on Maddow-- have made him a hero in a traditionally red county. And, of course, one statewide Texas race seems to be helping every Democrat running down-ballot:




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Friday, October 12, 2018

Slimy Conservatives Avoid Debates-- And When They Get Forced Into One... They ALWAYS Work To Limit Voter Access

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Ted Cruz fancies himself a world champion debater. But somehow the political equivalent of a kindergarten toddler kicked his ass during the 2016 Republican primary season. Now he's up against a young congressman from El Paso, Beto O'Rourke and Beto beat him in every debate they've had so far-- hands down. When CNN invited Cruz and Beto to participate in an hour-long nationally televised town hall on October 18, Cruz refused and Beto accepted. Therefore Beto gets a one hour free segment on CNN at 9 PM (CT), worth millions of dollars, about 2 weeks before the election and right in the middle of early voting.




Believe it or not, the California conservative in the Senate race here, Dianne Feinstein, is even worse than Cruz. Feinstein is incapable of debating state Senator Kevin de León, her opponent in the D vs D general election. De León and virtually every major media outlet in the state have tried to get her to debate and she's dodged over and over-- just like she has for the past 2 decades of not debating.

Humiliated by the press, she finally agreed-- but to one with virtually no chance that anyone will see it. The "discussion" (absolutely not a debate) will take place at noon on Wednesday, October 17, sponsored by the Public Policy Institute. The only way to watch it is by registering on their obscure website. No TV or radio coverage will be allowed to broadcast it. Feinstein only agreed to do this if de León is not permitted to address her directly.



In the sprawling 36th district of Texas, east of Houston, Dayna Steele has been trying to get Brian Babin to debate for months. He refuses. Much like Feinstein, he allowed a private, non-broadcast "discussion"-- actually an endorsement screening--where he farted out his right-wing talking points and left. Dayna is still trying to get a real debate but Babin, a dentist and congressional backbencher with not a single accomplishment other than pulling some teeth, has adamantly refused.

Another cowardly conservative, Mimi Walters in Orange County (CA-45), has been hiding out and avoiding a debate, which Katie Porter keeps calling for. Katie's campaign manager, Erica Kwiatkowski, told us that "Walters is refusing to debate Katie Porter on key issues because she cannot defend her record of voting 99% of the time with Donald Trump, including to raise taxes for middle-class families, allowing oil drilling off Orange County coasts, and to take away healthcare from Orange County families including those with pre-existing conditions. Mimi has repeatedly refused to participate in town hall meetings with district residents and now won’t debate the issues that matter to voters."

Hoppy
Kendra Fershee is the progressive Democrat running in northern West Virginia (WV-01, a seat occupied by entrenched Trumpist David McKinely. He doesn't want to debate. Kendra laughed when I asked her and told me he won't even say her name. She told me her campaign has "been hounding him for a debate for months; he's completely ignored every request from us, and from other groups that have asked. But on Monday, he was quoted in the WVU student newspaper saying he would debate me if there's a neutral third party host willing to do it. So, I went on the biggest radio show in the state yesterday and the (somewhat conservative) host of that show (Hoppy Kercheval) called on Rep. McKinley to debate me. Hoppy has made at least two debate request inquiries of the Congressman in the last 72 hours and has been ignored. We have also asked the Wheeling Intelligencer to inquire of Rep. McKinley (that's the paper in his hometown), which has indicated that they may be willing to host as well. This morning, the WVU student newspaper ran a story about how the Congressman has ignored Hoppy's inquiries, and the largest newspaper in the state, the Charleston Gazette Mail, is working on a second story about how none of the Republican House of Representatives candidates will debate their opponents in West Virginia.

Jess King (PA-11) finally got her conservative opponent to debate on Monday. "It took time for the hosts to nail down our opponent," she said, "but he's agreed to two more. He is refusing to do any other forums though, so we are attending them without him."

Mike Siegel's campaign arranged for the League of Women Voters chapters in Houston and Austin to moderate debates. "McCaul," he told me, "refused to participate. His lack of participation is in the context of him not holding any public events in ten years. No town halls, no opportunities to respond to questions from the public. He even refused to respond to a Houston Chronicle candidate questionnaire, so their online voting guide has nothing from him. I'm about to enter a Chronicle editorial board screening. We'll see if he shows."

Up in Maine, the biggest congressional district east of the Mississippi is up for grabs, ME-02, a largely rural, spread-out swing district. It's very helpful for voters to get an idea of who the candidates are beyond just "R" and "D," which is why debates are so important. The incumbent, Trump enabler Bruce Poliquin, actually did a debate with progressive Democrat Jared Golden. He must have been shocked when his canned talking points failed to land any punches and Golden's issue-oriented approach wont day. Poliquin immediately pulled out of the next debate.



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Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Vote Common Good-- On The Road

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We've been telling you about Vote Common Good ever since Ted Lieu and I sat down with the nascent group in a private room behind Ted's favorite restaurant. The tour started last week in Pennsylvania. Thursday it gets to Sioux City to rally with J.D. Scholten at the Grandview Park Bandshell. Saturday afternoon they'll be with Kara Eastman at Miller Park Pavilion in Omaha and a week from today... if you're in Wichita, it's James Thompson day at Farm and Art Market Plaza. There's also a week in Texas before meeting up with Ammar Campa-Najjar in Escondido on October 26 and traveling all over California 'til election day, rallies with Mike Levin, Harley Rouda, the 2 Katies (Porter and Hill) and then more in the Central Valley.

One of the early events was last Sunday afternoon at the Morgantown Farmers Market with progressive Democrat Kendra Fershee. "Vote Common Good," she told us, "is a perfect example of what America needs right now: an organization interested in rebuilding the bridges that have been crumbling for a long time. Instead of working toward solutions, we're tearing each other apart and forgetting who we are as Americans. We are straying from our core values: fairness, care, liberty, authority, sanctity, and loyalty. Vote Common Good has set out to remind us of why we love this country and why we need elected officials who are committed to doing what's right instead of what's politically expedient. There were people at the event who didn't expect to enjoy it as much as they did. It really was one of those 'feel good' events for me that give me the chance to reflect again on why I'm running for Congress and what my mission there will be: to serve the people of West Virginia."

Local newspapers have been covering the events in their own towns, but yesterday, one of the most influential evangelical newspapers in the country, the Christian Post ran a feature about the tour. The Post's executive editor is Richard Land, president of Southern Evangelical Seminary, and president emeritus of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission.
A politically-liberal Christian organization will host get-out-the-vote "revivals" in nearly 30 towns across the nation this coming month in an effort to unseat Republican members of Congress this fall.

Led by Minnesota pastor Doug Pagitt and fueled by opposition to Trump administration policies, "Vote Common Good" rallies will be held in at least 10 states before the Nov. 6 midterm elections. The rallies will feature live worship music and a rotating cast of mostly left-leaning Christian leaders, authors and activists who will attest to why Christians should vote for the Democrats.

The stated goal of Vote Common Good, which is the brainchild of a meeting of anti-Trump evangelical leaders that took place in Colorado in May, is to "flip Congress for the common good."

"A lot of people we talk to are in a crisis of their faith because they really feel like their leaders and their overall Christian narrative has turned in such a way that things that they thought were commitments and unshakable values of human rights and family values and decency have just been sold out for a bowl of porridge," Pagitt told The Christian Post. "There is a real crisis."

The bus tour kicked off with a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Tuesday and a rally in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday. On Thursday, a rally was held in Richmond, Virginia.

Doug Pagitt in Allentown, PA


"We don't just say we are running it like a revival. It really is a revival," Pagitt, the pastor of Solomon's Porch in South Minneapolis, said. "The theme of it is 'from fear to faith for the common good.' That is the branding around the particular event."

According to the organizers, the tour will hit at least 34 congressional districts, some of which are in states that have key Senate races, such as Missouri, Arizona and Texas.

Vote Common Good relied on the help of Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA), a regional vice chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in deciding which areas of the country the tour should target.

The outfit is traveling in a three-vehicle caravan that includes a sleeper bus, an RV and a truck that pulls its mobile stage that allows it to set up tour events outside.

Most rallies will feature music from New York City church and bar musician Vince Anderson and soul singer Meah Pace. The organization also lists about 25 known Christian leaders who will speak at the events. The cast of speakers speaking at each event will vary depending on speakers' individual availability.

While some of the speakers might speak at most rallies, some will only speak at a handful.

Those expected to speak include author and activist Brian McLaren, author Frank Schaeffer, activist Shane Claiborne, Pastor John Pavlovitz, Pastor Rob Schenck and Rev. Jacqui Lewis, a minister at Middle Collegiate Church in New York City who advocates for LGBT and racial equality.

"We are not reflexively partisan or reflexively Democrats," Pagitt declared. "Our statement is that the Trump administration is a hazard to the wellbeing of a lot of people and to the planet and needs to be restrained. The common good calls us this election to respond with our vote."

Pagitt, who was arrested earlier this year for protesting illegal immigrant family separations at the White House, admits that the aim of the tour "feels very partisan." However, he explained that he can imagine a time when Congress is the hands of the Democrats and Vote Common God is calling for a flip in Congress yet again. Among other things, Vote Common Good objects to the Trump administration's policies on refugees, health care, immigration, and the 2017 tax overhaul and poverty.

Pagitt asserts that some of the areas the tour will stop in are districts that voted for a Republican in 2016 House elections.

"[W]e are saying to a lot of these voters who voted Republican in the past that maybe it is time to offer your vote on behalf of someone else and to not only think of your own self interest when you vote," Pagitt explained. "It is a little surprising that this comes as fresh news to Christian people who are often very selfless in other areas of their lives."

Considering that many conservative Republicans voted for President Donald Trump and Republicans in 2016 because of promises to advance pro-life policies, Pagitt refuted the notion that conservative Christians are voting for "someone else" when they support candidates with pro-life policy stances.

"Some people use that as an easy block because some of these people have been voting this way since 1972 and abortion is still legal in this country," he said. "So, it is not a very wise voting standard. If that is what you are doing, it is not really working. Making abortion illegal and reducing the number of abortions are not connected to one another."

"We have three decades of information now that tell us about what we can do to reduce the number of abortions in this country," he added. "You can be anti-abortion and not have to feel like you are compelled to vote for people who want to put kids in cages or limit the number of refugees or takeaway health care or who are hawkish on war. Those things don't have to go together and if they keep telling you they are, they are lying to you."

According to Pagitt, Vote Common Good is not looking to "change people's minds" through this tour.

"We are trying to encourage people whose minds have already changed that they need to stay true to their faith and vote along their changed mind," Pagitt said. "We call that changed-mind repentance. If they have already repented and changed their mind and perspective, their faith should follow. We are not here to have a debate about the issues."

Ultimately, Vote Common Good wants those who attend their rallies to understand how important the midterm elections are, even though most voters usually don't vote in them.

"I think more people are tuned in right now than in some other midterm election," Pagitt said. "I will be honest, I have missed a lot of midterm elections and haven't always voted in them. This one feels a little different and we want people to know that they are not alone."

On the right side of the political spectrum, conservative evangelical grassroots organizations like the Family Policy Alliance and the Faith & Freedom Coalition are spending millions on efforts to encourage social conservative voters to vote in the 2018 midterms.

The midterm elections will come as the Trump administration has advanced religious freedom and pro-life policies favored by conservative Christians at an unprecedented rate in his first two years in office.

"People need to remember that President Trump is not on the ballot this year but with those that are on the ballot, there is going to be a choice between a candidate who will advance life and religious freedom and family and there will be a candidate who doesn't," Autumn Leva, vice president of strategy at the Family Policy Institute, told CP last week. "If voters don't show up to support the pro-family candidate, then we are going to have a very big problem passing pro-family policies when it comes to the laws that are advanced at the state level and federal level next year."

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Sunday, September 09, 2018

Guest Post: West Virginia Congressional Candidate Kendra Fershee

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Goal ThermometerWest Virginia's first congressional district, the northern third of the state, gave Obama a respectable 41.5% of its vote in 2008. In 2016, the voters there were fed up and smart enough to figure out the status quo wasn't working for them. In the primary they turned overwhelmingly to someone offering to break with the status quo: Bernie Sanders. Although Debbie Wasserman Schultz had fixed the process to make sure the status quo candidate would get 18 convention delegates to Bernie's 19, Bernie took the state 123,860 (51.4%) to Hillary's 86,354 (35.8%). In the general, Hillary was eviscerated by Trump in WV-01, 68% to 26%. Have the establishment Democrats figured out that their base wants something different than what Hillary and the status quo establishment was offering. Nope. Morgantown law professor Kendra Fershee isn't running on a platform like that. She's running on a platform focused on universal healthcare, effectively dealing with the opioid crisis, better education, jobs with livable wages and getting corrupt corporate money out of politics. Please read her guest post below and, if you like it, consider contributing to her campaign by tapping the thermometer on the right, a thermometer that goes to an ActBlue page dedicated to progressives who won their primaries but who the DCCC is still ignoring.


Living Free In A Free Country Requires Team Effort
by Kendra Fershee


My name is Kendra Fershee and I am the Democratic Nominee for Congress in the West Virginia First District. In May, I shocked West Virginia with a huge upset win over an extremely well-funded candidate who played it very safe, while I was open and honest about my values and policy positions. My grassroots plan will work against our Republican incumbent who was elected in the Tea Party wave in 2010. But people really misread West Virginia politics, even in West Virginia, so many people think a candidate who talks about universal health care and legalization of medical cannabis cannot win here, despite the fact that Bernie Sanders won all 55 counties in WV (and outperformed Trump in the primary in three counties in my district). Howie knows I can win; he did a deeper data dive during the primary and predicted I could win, even with a lot less funding than my opponent. He was 100% correct, and my success in the primary proved it.

As a first-time candidate I'm obviously new to running a campaign, but I truly thought people would see my primary results and realize that we have a winning plan and help me fundraise. Many of the powers-that-be in my district are still not taking my calls, though, which is unfortunate because they control the purse strings in my district.

I need a fraction of the money a typical congressional race needs to win. In the primary, I was out raised ten-to-one, outspent six-to-one, and I won by nine points. Alexandria Ocadio-Cortez and I are tied at the biggest money upsets in the country.

I’m confident I can win with $300k, which makes me the biggest bargain in the country (I’ve raised a little over $100k in the primary so far). But I’m having to show up in people’s offices without an appointment to do money pitches because they won’t return our calls. There was one poorly conducted poll in June (sample size of 87 people in a district of 600k+) that had me getting beat badly. The power brokers are using that as an excuse to ignore me. But when I crash their offices, I’m able to convince them that my campaign is worth the investment. I’m just running out of time and we need the cash.

Conventional wisdom these days is all wrong, which means that the power brokers are looking at the wrong measures to judge my campaign. Money and polls are bad indicators of success. I know I don't need more money than my corporate PAC-funded (mostly from Big Pharma) opponent, but I do need enough to raise my name recognition. And when I do that, I will win and shock the entire country.



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Thursday, August 30, 2018

The GOP Wants To Repeal Obamacare Again-- How Will That Play In November?

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Every poll I've seen and every focus group I've watched has shown that healthcare and the economy-- as in a more equitable one-- are the top two issues Americans will have in mind when they step into the voting booths in November. (I sensed that many don't want to admit to themselves that the only thing on their minds will be Trump.) When voters say the most important issue is the economy, for many, they mean this:



The Republicans have moved to guarantee that healthcare is front and center on election day by vowing a revote after the Midterms if they retain control of Congress. The most recent Real Clear Politics approval/disapproval average shows approval at 49.6 compared to disapproval at 40.2%. The latest Kaiser Health Tracking Poll shows approval at 50% and disapproval at 41%. But even more important is the growing, growing, growing appeal not for Obamacare's flawed baby-steps but for Medicare-For-All. Although most Democrats in Congress back it, plenty of Democrats don't-- the Republican wing of the Democratic Party (including most DCCC recruits for 2018)-- and not a single congressional Republican backs it. But look at these numbers. These are actual American voters, not very status quo-oriented members of the ruling class establishment.



That's right, 70.1% of American voters now favor Medicare-For-All, including a narrow majority of Republican voters. Among Democrats, it's overwhelming-- almost 85%. The Republicans still fighting to repeal Obamacare are not offering to replace it with Medicare-For-All. In fact, Republicans-- and a small number of the worst and most corrupt Republican-lite No Labels Democrats-- would like to see Medicare replaced by a voucher system that would eventually mean that only wealthy people get medical treatment and that poor people... die quickly.

As Alexander Bolton reported yesterday at The Hill "Senate Republicans say they would like Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) to appoint a successor to late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) who, unlike McCain, would support GOP legislation to repeal ObamaCare. GOP lawmakers say they won’t have time to hold another vote to repeal the law in 2018 but vow to try again next year if they manage to keep their Senate and House majorities... A senior Senate GOP aide said the chamber would 'absolutely' vote again to repeal ObamaCare but cautioned it would depend on 'if we keep the House.'"

If the good fairy visits the DCCC and DSCC and waves her magic wand to create competence, voters will fill out their ballots in November with healthcare front and center in their minds-- things like pre-existing conditions, affordability, drug prices, etc. Although both the DCCC and DSCC have mucked this narrative up by recruiting die-hard conservatives who oppose Medicare-For-All as much as Republicans do, there are still progressive Democratic candidates who managed to win primaries despite the DCCC. I asked several who are campaigning on Medicare-For-All if voters in their districts respond to it when they're out on the hustings, especially since they're running against incumbents who have already voted to repeal Obamacare and to replace Medicare with a voucher system.

That description fits Kara Eastman to a "t." She took on a DCCC-backed Blue Dog in the primary and beat him and now she's battling an even more conservative Republican in the Omaha swing district that is essential to win if the Democrats are going to have any hope of taking back Congress. Yesterday, she told me that when she's out canvassing "the number one issue people talk about at their doors is healthcare. People tell me that like my own mother, they are facing outrageous prescription drug costs. One woman told me her family spends $18k a month on medicine! They also tell me their premiums have gone up. Many small business owners in the district have been forced to stop offering healthcare to their employees because of these premiums and the tax bill passed by the GOP that is hurting our small business community. Healthcare is a human right. Repealing a system that needs improvement is not the answer; fixing it is. Medicare for All would provide healthcare to every citizen in the country AND save the federal government trillions. Republicans like Don Bacon are so extreme in their ideology and refuse to see that Americans deserve healthcare-- this is completely immoral. It’s time we put people before party and create a system where everyone can afford to be healthy and safe."

Goal ThermometerHow about in the heart of Trump Country? Well, the heart of Trump Country, West Virginia, went strongly for Bernie in the primaries and in many counties Bernie got more votes than Trump! I asked Kendra Fershee, an old friend, who is running in the 1st congressional district seat (the northern third of the state) and she told me that everywhere she goes" on the campaign trail here, nearly EVERY PERSON I talk to says he or she supports universal healthcare. West Virginians have worked backbreaking labor for centuries with little to no access to healthcare. It's simply not fair to live in a wealthy country, work your body into a pulp, and not be able to get medical help. Taking care of working people, older people, young people, people in ill health, literally everyone, will not only help individuals, it will help every community in West Virginia. West Virginians are dying at twice the rate of all other Americans of drug addiction. We need help now. If the Medicaid expansion is rolled back, as it would be after the midterms if the Republican Congress retains control and gets its way, West Virginia will experience devastation. I don't know what it looks like for an entire state to collapse, but I fear we in West Virginia may find out if we don't get universal healthcare soon."

Mike Siegel, the Austin City Attorney, running for a congressional seat occupied by reactionary Trump enabler Michael McCaul in central Texas, won his primary and was immediately ignored by the DCCC, which looks at him as "too progressive." That's funny because even a majority of physicians-- a notoriously conservative cohort-- now sees single-payer healthcare as the way to go. Soon it will be just congressional Republicans and the DCCC who don't!

"I'm running on a platform including Medicare for All," Mike told us yesterday. "This week I've appeared with Beto O'Rourke at two town halls, each with overflowing crowds with 1,000 or more people, and when I say that I am fighting for Medicare for All, the response is overwhelming. It's what the people want. Once in a while, at smaller gatherings, folks ask me how do we pay for it. The answer is easy: the government can afford it, we are the wealthiest nation on earth. Just look at the $1.5 trillion tax cut for the wealthy. If we can afford that, we can afford health care for all.

"This election, what's the number one issue? 'It's health care, stupid.' A recent poll in our District tested 524 voters, and 81% said health care was the top issue. Democrats, Republicans, seniors, students, rural, urban. Everyone says health care is number one. In the rural areas, they also need infrastructure-- hospitals are closing, and they need quality local facilities. But everyone needs health care. We are running a hard campaign here in the Texas 10th. If this statewide movement, supported by Beto, continues to grow, we won't have to worry about Republicans getting a second chance to attack the ACA. Instead, we'll be talking about how soon we can get a vote on Medicare for All."



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Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Let's Talk Money-- Campaign Cash In Wave Elections

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In 2010 Democrats had been in control of Congress for two terms and they were loaded with campaign cash. Democratic incumbents outspent Republican challengers-- sometimes by immense margins, double, triple, three times, four times... Let me show what I mean. In 2010 Jim Oberstar-- first elected in 1974-- was the longest-serving member ever of House from Minnesota. He was chairman of the Transportation Committee, a ready source of fat campaign contributions and He thought Republicans would like him because he was anti-Choice and pro-gun. He had won every reelection with more than 60% of the vote, some with over 70%. In 2010 he spent a massive $2,223,357 to Republican challenger Chip Cravaack's $630,728. Cravaack beat him 48.2% to 46.6%.

The Democrats lost 63 seats in that GOP wave. Melissa Bean was a crooked New Dem-- corrupt through and through. She spent $2,451,348 against the crackpot wing nut who was challenging her, Joe Walsh, who spent $602,803. He beat her. Ike Skelton was a power in the House and chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, a perfect place to suck in tons of cash. He was first elected in 1977 and, like Oberstar, he was anti-choice and pro-gun, not very inspiring for Democratic voters. But he had the cash. He spent $3,107,552 to Vicky Hartzler's $1,351,176, but his Missouri district gave Hartzler 50.4% of the vote and Skelton just 45.1%. John Adler was a Blue Dog and a big Wall Street suck-up in New Jersey. He spent $3,285,638 to Republican challenger Jon Runyan's $1,518,073. Runyan won 50-47%. And so it went around the country-- Rick Boucher defended his seat $3,325,898 against GOP challenger Morgan Griffith, who spent barely over a million and Griffith won. Longtime Blue Dog incumbent Allen Boyd lost his Florida district-- in a 54-41% rout-- even though he spent $3,814,064 to his opponent's $1,290,929. Mark Schauer spent $3,261,651 to keep his Michigan seat but Tim Walberg beat him with $1,647,379. Another crap Democrat, Chris Carney, desperately tried to cling to his northeast Pennsylvania seat bye spending $1,657,586 to Republican Tom Marino's $704,457 but Marino wiped him out 55.2% to 44.8%. And on and on. That was the red wave of 2010.

In 2006, the exact opposite had happened. It was a blue wave and Republicans outspent Democrats-- and lost their seats to challengers without much money. The GOP lost 30 seats, including those of power houses like Natural Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo in California. Pombo spent $4,629,983 to Democrat Jerry McNerney's $2,422,962 and McNerney beat him 53-47%. Nancy Johnson had been first elected to Congress from Connecticut in 1982. She was the top Republican on the honey pot Ways and Means Committee and she spent $5,095,844 to hold her seat. Chris Murphy beat her with $2,486,251. Same happened in New Hampshire where grassroots activist Carol Shea-Porter raised only $360,380 compared to GOP incumbent Jeb Bradley's $1,111,590. Charlie Taylor (R-NC) was a rich banking criminal connected to the Russian Mafia-- all the way back in 2006-- and his spent $2,530,580 of his own for a total of $4,171,482 against a Democrat who spent $1.8 million. The Democrat beat him 54-46%.

I'm sure you get the point. In wave elections the biggest money spender won't necessarily be reelected. But the political establishment doesn't understand that-- not the DCCC, the NRCC nor the stenographers masquerading as political pundits who vomit out their brilliant insights. The conservative Texas Observer did a story yesterday about the 2018 midterms. It focussed on one thing-- how well the Democrats were doing in the money chase. I'm glad they are, but that isn't why they're going to win. Democrats need enough money to get their messages out but they also need to connect with voters and if they do what old-fashioned, ignorant organizations like DCCC and EMILY's List insist they do-- sit on the phone and beg for money from strangers all day, everyday-- they'll miss and opportunity to do what Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez just did. As of the June 6 FEC reporting deadline, she had spent $206,936 and Crowley spent $3,426,424. All that money... all that power... all those endorsements (AFL-CIO, SEIU, Planned Parenthood, NARAL, Kirsten Gillibrand, Chuck Schumer, Andrew Cuomo, Hakeem Jeffries, Eliot Engel, Mark Pocan, Maxine Waters...) couldn't save him. While he was schmoozing with powerful people, she was talking to ordinary voters. She was a waitress one year earlier and she beat him 15,897 (57.5%) to 11,761 (45.5%). He was already in elective office when her mother was giving birth to her. She didn't spend her time begging for money; she spent her time talking with voters. It's not what the DCCC or the DC establishment likes to see in candidates.

Back to that Observer article: "For the first time in 25 years," they noted, "Texas Democrats are running in every one of the state’s 36 congressional districts. And the latest federal campaign finance reports, released Sunday, show these candidates are bringing in money at unprecedented paces and in unexpected places. Many Republican incumbents who’ve seen their elections in comfortably red districts as preordained are now faced with the prospect of actually campaigning. That’s good news for the national Democratic Party’s takeover strategy for the U.S. House, which hinges in part on upsets in Texas’ moderating suburbs. For starters, Democratic candidates are doing well where they need to be doing well. In the three GOP-held congressional districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and that the national Democratic Party has targeted as part of its strategy to win back the House-- Pete Sessions’ Dallas-area district, Will Hurd’s Southwest Texas district and John Culberson’s West Houston district-- the Democratic candidates each raised more than $1 million in the latest quarter, all outraising their GOP incumbent opponents."

Playing the money game is mostly a loser's game for Democrats anyway. After the Citizens United decision, all the Republicans need is a nice bribe from a monster like Adelman and any advantage for the Democratic candidates fundraising efforts is nullified. That's why grassroots campaigning is so crucial. Adelson just contributed $30 million to Ryan's SuperPAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund. Then there are the Kochs and that neo-Nazi family on Long Island (the Mercers) and lots of other-- from Elon Musk (don't buy another Tesla), Hushang Ansary, Doug Deason, Steve Cohen, Jim Simons, Paul Singer, Joseph Craft and Art Pope, to the Ricketts, Obendorfs, and Uihleins-- and happy as pigs in shit for the mega-million dollar tax cuts they got.

Goal ThermometerDemocrats on the right and Democrats on the left are all doing pretty well raising money for their campaigns this cycle. But the smart ones, unburdened by insistence from the DCCC and the Beltway's tired consultant class that candidates spend all their time on the phone, have a wave election advantage. I asked some of the progressives who won their primaries and haven't been embraced by the DCCC, about how this dynamic is playing out in their own races.

Dayna Steele has an advantage that few other candidates do. Because she was the most popular rock dj in Houston for so many years, people who might not otherwise even want to hear out a Democrat, are eager to meet her and listen to what she has to say. She's raised money money than any Democrat has in this district in decades, but never at the expense of meeting with the people who live in the 36th district. This morning she told me that "Team Dayna is running a professional campaign like no other Democrat has since this district was created. We assembled a strong team with prior experience, identified more than the anticipated win number of voters, and are using every avenue possible to contact these voters and talk to them, including a large and growing number of committed volunteers. I have said since the very beginning that if I was going to do this right, it had to be boots on the ground every single day, touching voters, and discussing the issues that are important in the district - health care, Internet access, and Harvey recovery. No Democrat ran in 2016 and the Green Party candidate got 11% of the vote that year without campaigning or resources. That right there strongly implies people are looking for a change. The voters are here. We simply need to reach them and we are."

Jesse King is running in a tough red district but she's fighting as hard as Alexandria Ocasio did. Her campaign just announced that in the last quarter it had raised over $300,000 breaking the fundraising record for any Democrat to ever run there. All in all, she's raised over $780,000 and has $54,000 more in cash-on-hand than Lloyd Smucker, her Trump enabling opponent. Refusing all corporate PAC money, her average contribution is $35.83. Her campaign has over 23 volunteer-led regional teams across Lancaster and York counties, all of which run door-knocking and phone banking efforts and just went over 100,000 calls and door knocks! Since launching in July 2017, she's held or attended over 100 public events like rallies and town halls. Smucker hasn't held a public, in-person town hall since he was elected. "Working people in South Central PA aren’t interested in another career politician who doesn’t show up for constituents but collects big checks from corporate PACs," she said. "We’re refusing all corporate PAC money and spending our time talking to folks in every corner of the district about how to build an America for all of us. And that’s why we’re seeing this groundswell of support from small-dollar donors. Some Washington insiders assume this district isn’t competitive because voters historically vote Republican. But we’re having thousands of honest conversations with voters about our hopes for our country and our families. And that’s inspiring people to vote with their values, instead of just on party lines."

"I come from a grassroots organizing tradition, and I'm running my campaign with a similar approach," said Mike Siegel, Democratic nominee in TX-10. "I've raised about $190,000 to date, and we've spent almost all of that on field organizers and canvassers and literature delivered directly to voters. Folks in the rural areas tell us they haven't seen a Democratic nominee in 40 years. And they have specific needs that I can fight for: access to rural hospitals; access to internet broadband; support for public schools. Meanwhile, they know that the incumbent, Rep. McCaul, doesn't care about regular folks and the issues they are facing. I can win this race without raising a million dollars-- I just need organizers. My next two hires will be a Spanish-speaking labor organizer and an African-American graduate student from an historically-black college in the District. We are going to reach out to every community that has been left behind by McCaul and the corporate power structure. I don't need TV ads or expensive consultants to do this work. I just need boots on the ground, so me and my team can meet with each small-town mayor, each pastor, each local advocate on the issues that matter. This is a "small d" democratic campaign, and we can win. You may not know it from reading the national news, but my opponent is only considered a nine point favorite. And he's done plenty-- giving himself $40 million in tax cut benefits, seeking cuts to Social Security, backing family separation-- that will convince voters it's time for a change."

Kendra Fershee is the progressive Democrat running in the northern third of West Virginia (WV-01), where Bernie beat Hillary in the primary and then Trump beat her in the general. Kendra has raised barely over $100,000, but if it keeps coming in at that pace it will be enough to get her message out and power her volunteer-based operation. "I'm running a classic grassroots campaign," she told us. "It's more personal, less expensive, and far more effective at reaching voters than a paid media driven campaign. I also rely on social media to communicate with people who may not have been engaged in politics in the past. In order to win this race, I'm going to need to engage people who have lost faith or interest in politics, find new voters, and get activists fired up to help. That's what we did during the primary, which I won even though my opponent out raised me ten to one, outspent me six to one, and was expected to win by every pundit and news source in West Virginia. We put ten thousand miles on my car, knocked on three thousand doors, and hand wrote six thousand postcards. We were proud of those numbers, but the best number-- despite the huge money deficit-- was that I won by more than nine points. That's a clear indication that what is happening right now is big. We shocked a lot of people in West Virginia in May, and we're going to shock the entire country in November. My incumbent opponent is not connected with voters the way we are-- he's far too entrenched in DC to do that-- and he's fumbled several attempts to use social media to fire up his voters. Whatever grassroots efforts he will have will be bought and impersonal. People are done with wealthy, out-of-touch representatives. They want real people-- parents of kids in public schools, people who work for a living, people who are relatable and genuine-- representing them. Grassroots worked for us in May, it is going to win in November."

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Thursday, July 12, 2018

Marijuana Legalization And the 2018 Elections

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The Oklahoma Republican Party knew that putting Question 788 on the general election ballot could be very bad for them. It was expected to turn out an inordinately large number of people who don't usually vote-- and those people would not be conservatives. So they put Question 788 on the primary ballot on June 26. And, sure enough, primary election polling places were swamped with votes, quadruple the number who normally vote, in some cases 10 times the number! We're talking about Medical Marijuana Legalization Initiative. And it passed-- 507,582 to 385,176. Yeah, one of the reddest states in America... with a PVI of R+20! Trump won every county. More people voted for Question 788 than had voted for Hillary, who only got 420,375 votes (28.9%).

The GOP had opposed Question 788. They were gobsmacked by all that support for it-- not that that's stopping them from screwing around with it behind the scenes now, much the same way the GOP had done in Florida, after their marijuana initiative had passed overwhelmingly. They're doing it through the Board of Health, which was tasked with drawing of implementation guidelines. They're not doing so in good faith.
The board, which oversees the Oklahoma State Department of Health, voted Tuesday morning on 75 pages of rules creating a rough framework for patients, physicians, caretakers and business owners interested in medical marijuana. It also added two new rules that a coalition of health groups had pushed: the ban on smoking products and a requirement that dispensaries hire a pharmacist.

...Julie Ezell, the Health Department’s general counsel, cautioned board members that the two new rules they added to the proposed rules might not be allowed under State Question 788, which legalized medical marijuana. That could invite a court challenge, she said.

Dr. Jean Hausheer, president of the Oklahoma State Medical Association [and a deranged right-wing anti-marijuana fanatic], praised the vote.

“We are pleased with the rules adopted today by the Oklahoma State Department of Health and look forward to working with them to promote public health throughout the state,” she said in a news release.

Few others said they were pleased.
Hausheer wants to severely restrict the number a dispensaries and claims Oklahoma voters "didn't understand" Question 788 when they voted for it. How Republican is that? And Oklahoma isn't the only state where right-winger officials are trying to fight a losing battle with their own citizens against marijuana legalization. Half a dozen states have ballot initiatives coming up in November, initiatives that are going to hurt Republicans.
Two measures are already scheduled to appear on November ballots: Michigan voters will decide whether to become the ninth state to legalize marijuana for recreational purposes, while the electorate in Utah will choose whether to join 22 other states by legalizing pot for medical use.

In Missouri, as many as three separate measures could make the ballot. Supporters have submitted signatures for both medical and recreational regimes that will now be inspected by the secretary of state’s office.

Oklahoma, which voted last month to legalize medical marijuana, could see a ballot measure to approve a recreational scheme as well. Legalization measures are also circulating in Arizona, Nebraska and North Dakota. Supporters in Ohio are trying for a second time to qualify for the ballot, in 2019.

Supporters say they will focus on the benefits of creating a regulatory and taxation system for a market that would otherwise be controlled by cartels and street dealers.

“We’re careful to talk about it as creating a regulatory framework,” said Martin Hamburger, a Democratic strategist who has crafted campaign advertisements for previous marijuana measures and who will work this year on the efforts in Michigan and Missouri. “Regulate it and tax it. And that frame of creating regulation so it can be used responsibly by adults 21 and over is pretty important.”

Hamburger said legalization campaigns have also made inroads among minority communities by talking about decriminalizing marijuana sales, something that resonates in areas where authorities prosecute people on minor possession charges.

“We often find that there’s sort of a social justice message there,” Hamburger said. “One arrest for marijuana can ruin your life and give you a felony, and it’s on your mark forever. A stupid mistake as a 19-year-old shouldn’t mess up your life.”

Marijuana legalization has also meant a business boom for companies that are able to enter the market soon after regulatory schemes are enacted. Opponents of legalization have cast those businesses as Big Marijuana-- a boogeyman as threatening to public health, especially children’s health, as Big Tobacco in earlier times.

Increasing access to marijuana products, especially edibles like candies and chocolates, that might tempt children is something that can move voters away from legalization, said Kevin Sabet, who runs Smart Approaches to Marijuana, a group that opposes legalization.

“Most voters don’t understand that legalization actually means commercializing edibles, pot candies, pot concentrates that are 99 percent THC,” Sabet said, referring to the main psychoactive component of marijuana. “What voters think it’s about, and what the pro-legalization side has been good about framing, is going to jail for a joint.”

Casting marijuana as a get-rich-quick business for Wall Street hedge funds helped the legalization opponents notch their most notable win at the ballot box: Voters in Ohio three years ago resoundingly rejected a legalization measure, by an almost 2-to-1 margin. Even proponents of legalization grimaced at that campaign, where backers rolled out an ill-advised mascot named Buddie to greet voters.

“We won in Ohio by a 2-to-1 margin because the singular message was about the marijuana monopoly, not whether marijuana is bad or good,” Sabet said.

As campaigns for and against marijuana legalization have become more sophisticated, costs have risen, too. Supporters have outspent opponents; in California, $25 million poured into the campaign in favor of legalization, while opponents spent $2 million. In Massachusetts, supporters outspent opponents by a margin of $6.8 million to $3 million. And in Maine, where a legalization initiative passed by 4,000 votes, backers outspent opponents more than 10-to-1.

This year, supporters in Michigan had raised $1.6 million to back their measure, through last week. Opponents had pulled in $280,000, though Sabet said he expected the opposition campaign to have a seven-figure budget.

The shifting battlefield, away from liberal coastal states and into more traditionally swing and red states like Michigan, Ohio and Oklahoma, illustrates the unusual coalitions of support on which each side relies. Far from the traditional conservative-liberal split that divides modern politics, older men and younger progressives tend to favor legalization, while women with children-- typically guaranteed Democratic voters-- tend to harbor doubts.

“Democrats and progressive women with children are our swings,” Hamburger said. “They’re the ones we can lose. So a lot of our messaging are about regulations, how to prevent kids from getting it.”

“The swing voters are basically 35- to 55-year-old women,” Sabet said. “That is going to be key for us. We know that we’re not going to get a majority of 18- to 34-year-olds.”

“It’s really going to be those moms” who decide whether legalization passes or fails, he added.

Both sides are already exploring another new way to appeal to that swing demographic: the opioid crisis. Supporters hope to convince voters in states hit hard by opioids, including heroin and fentanyl, that marijuana can act as a substitute, something to ease pain that might otherwise only be stopped by a powerful pill. Opponents say marijuana is a gateway drug that can lead to more serious addictions.


Conservative politicians have a knee jerk anti-marijuana posture. That's opened the door of younger and more progressive politicians to use marijuana decriminalization and legalization as part of their platforms. That's working out badly for the GOP. West Virginia progressive, Kendra Fershee released that above video and this morning she told me that "The GOP is also fighting legalization at the federal level, which is making it hard for states to implement (even weak) cannabis laws. Banking is difficult, federal enforcement looms, and anti-cannabis state legislators can point to the federal laws as an excuse to fight cannabis legalization. It's time to elect pro-cannabis candidates to Congress to get the fed out of the way."

Goal ThermometerSimilarly, Alan Grayson, the Orlando Democrat trying to win his seat back from conservative backbencher Darren Soto, told us that "This represents a new coalition in American politics: Democrats allied with the 'let’s mind our own business'/libertarian vote.  We’ve seen something similar on marriage equality, and I think that we will on abortion."

As so many people do, when talking about medical marijuana, Dayna Steele, who is running for a congressional seat east of Houston, spoke about it from a personal perspective. "My sweet, wonderful mother," she told us, "became so depressed and violent in her last year of Alzheimer's. I often wished marijuana was legal in Texas while she was going through this. I sincerely thought at the time it would make a huge difference for her. And us. Now, recent studies show marijuana could be instrumental in helping those diagnosed with Alzheimer's. It is also helping veterans with PTSD, children with epilepsy, and so much more. It is time to legalize marijuana and bring this industry AND relief to Texas."

Tom Guild is a longtime local activist in Oklahoma City running for Congress-- and in a tough Democratic Party primary runnoff. But he took the time just now to explain how he sees. the marijuama situation in his state:
The actions of elitist politicians and the unelected governing board of the Oklahoma State Department of Health are hijacking the medical marijuana initiative that passed overwhelmingly in the June 26 Oklahoma primary. The board was warned by its in-house counsel that the actions of the health department will likely lead to litigation. As George Harrison sang in the "Sue Me Sue You Blues"-- you get your lawyer and I’ll get mine. We’ll get together and have a bad time. The political ruling class isn’t too concerned about litigation because the money to defend their actions in court will come from taxpayer funds. They have weighted the state tax system to burden working people, the middle class, and the working poor, so that’s who will pay for litigation induced by the health department’s miscalculations. When citizens were circulating a petition to raise the minimum wage in Oklahoma City, the political class rushed through a new law making it illegal for cities to raise the wage. When Stillwater was taking action to regulate fracking in its city limits, the state legislature made that illegal, too. What happened to that old Republican favorite-- local control? Now it’s implementation of medical marijuana in Oklahoma that the ruling class is working overtime to thwart, overriding the overwhelming will of the people of Oklahoma. You get your lawyer and I’ll get mine. We’ll get together and have a bad time. Hopefully this time the good guys and democracy will prevail over Oklahoma’s elitists-those with God’s unlisted phone number. What has the political ruling class been smoking, anyway?


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Wednesday, May 09, 2018

Yesterday's Election Results

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Mostly uninteresting run-of-the-mill candidates who will make no difference to anyone won their primaries, but not entirely. Let's start with some good news in North Carolina. Durham County has just over 310,000 people, one of North Carolina's most populous. Last night the county elected the first African-American in its history, Clarence Birkhead, who beat the racist incumbent , Mike Andrews. And he beat him in a landslide-- 69-31%. Birkhead vowed to not cooperate with ICE and to get guns off the streets. There were no statewide races. There were two Republican primaries which saw far right lunatics challenging more mainstream conservatives. In the 3rd district Walter Jones, Congress' most independent-minded Republican, fended off two opponents, Phil Law and Scott Dacey.
Walter Jones- 20,862 (43.0%)
Phil Law- 14,266 (29.4%)
Scott Dacey- 13,380 (27.6%)
The other contest was in the 9th district, from south Charlotte, along the southern border of the state up into Fayetteville. This was another 3-way contest but this time the extremist defeated the incumbent.
Mark Harris- 17,223 (48.5%)
Robert Pittenger- 16,409 (46.2%)
Clarence Goins- 1,862 (5.2%)
The DCCC has a worthless right-wing Blue Dog, Dan McCready, who won his primary against a low-profile Berniecrat, Christian Cano. As of the April 18 FEC reporting deadline, McCready had raised the most money of anyone from either party-- $1,905,269. He also has a $1,220,648 warchest now to face Harris, who has just $70,804 left. Interestingly, McCready's 37,823 votes were more than Pittenger, Harris and Goins combined!

Sadly Berniecrat Jenny Marshall, the only North Carolina candidate endorsed by Blue America lost out to a garden variety Democrat DD Adams 15,428 (54.4%) to 12,919 (45.6%). DD spent $127,795 to Jenny's $105,874. In Indiana the one Blue America candidate in that state also suffered a defeat. That was the 9th district, where a run-of-the-mill Democrat from Inside-the-Beltway beat Dan Canon 66.4% to 30.7%, having outraised him $585,706 to $433,401.

The big race in Indiana, though, was the Republican Senate primary. Two congressmen, both right-wing nuts, Todd Rokita, the more right-wing of the two, and Luke Messer, gave up their seats to run for the nomination. They both lost out to someone even more extreme-- a wealthy Trumpist businessman Mike Braun.
Mike Braun- 207,977 (41.2%)
Todd Rokita- 151,306 (30.0%)
Luke Messer- 145,853 (28.9%)
Mike Pence's older brother, Greg, won the nomination in a 5-way race in a landslide (65.3%). There were no other surprises on either side of the aisle.

West Virginia was far more interesting. In the first Congressional District, the northern third of the state, 3 Democrats lined up to run against Republican incumbent David McKinley and progressive Kendra Fershee won.
Kendra Fershee- 23,030 (47.3%)
Ralph Baxter- 18,542 (38.1%)
Tom Payne- 7,131 (14.6%)
And in the 3rd district, the southern third of the state, state Senator Richard Ojeda, had a huge victory, not just beating beating his 3 Democratic opponents combined, but beating the 4 top-running Republicans combined as well! Ojeda was the guy who supported Bernie in the 2016 primary and then switched to Trump in the general. Now he feels Trump let his voters down.
Richard Ojeda- 29,837 (52.0%)
Shirley Love- 14,251 (24.9%)
Paul Davis- 9,063 (15.8%)
Janice Hagerman- 4,176 (7.3%)


The biggest news in West Virginia though was how badly Don Blankenship wound up doing after surging all week. It was probably the anti-Blankenship tweet from Trump Tuesday morning that did him him. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, the McConnell-preferred candidate who came in first.
Patrick Morrisey- 47,571 (34.9%)
Evan Jenkins- 38,888 (29.3%)
Don Blankenship- 27,153 (19.9%)
It doesn't auger well for November that despite a surprisingly strong primary from Paula Jean Swearengin, who took 30.3% of the Democratic vote, the incumbent, Joe Manchin took 111,589 votes basically the same number of votes as Morrisey, Jenkins and Blankenship did together (111,612)! And that's in a state where Trumpanzee beat Hillary 489,371 (68.5%) to 188,794 (26.4%)!

That leaves Ohio, whose Democratic Party passed away, unnoticed many years ago. There were no interesting results on the federal level or in any statewide races, except for a decision to stop partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts. The other interesting race was for a state legislative seat. Remember Rachel Crooks? She was one of the women Trump molested. No one ran against her in the primary so she will be in the November general election.

In the gubernatorial race, Richard Cordray beat Dennis Kucinich 423,264 (62.3%) to 155,694 (22.9%). On the Republican side Mike DeWine beat Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor 494,766 (59.8%) to 332,273 (40.2%). And the Republican who will face Sherrod Brown in November will he multimillionaire Jim Renacci, who beat Mike Gibbons 360,474 (47.4%) to 241,109 (31.7%). There was not a single congressional race worth noting-- and there isn't likely to be in November either.

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