Will The Bluest District In America Elect New York's Most Bigoted Democrat?

Tomas Ramos and Ruben Diaz, Sr-- NY-15

In a sermon blog post yesterday, If White Conservatives Loved All People The Way They Do Embryos, Rev. John Pavlovitz noted that, for all the tears and showy garment-rending over women's Choice, the conservatives stop caring about embryos who turn into people: "these supposed life-lovers often don’t treat them like they’re at all human. Nine or thirteen or thirty-two or sixty-five years later when they show up in their communities and in their emergency rooms and along their borders, in need of food or refuge or healthcare or compassion-- they’re no longer something sacred or beautiful. Unless these lives conform to the narrowest and most stringent of criteria (usually being white, Republican), they’re more often treated as threats to be neutralized and adversaries to be destroyed."

Embryos that grow into LGBTQ teenagers aren’t worthy of their protection now. In fact, they receive their contempt, bear the brunt of their jokes, and absorb the full damnation of their brimstone sermons. They can’t get married or use a public bathroom or get benefits for their partners without being assailed at every turn by these “lovers of life.”

Embryos that become terrified migrants fleeing crime and poverty and pressed up against the most urgent desperation, don’t merit the passionate defense once within their borders they might have received while inside the womb. Instead they sustain their scorn and suspicion and every bit of their malicious, wall-building bitterness.

Embryos that become sick middle-aged adults fighting metastasizing tumors, facing astronomical chemotherapy bills, and desiring healthcare that will not drive them to bankruptcy-- don’t elicit a shred of the empathy they’d have garnered when they were still microscopic.

Embryos that one day stand in need of Government assistance to keep the lights on or food on the table for their children because they have endured unthinkable adversity along their journey—will not be met with tearful embraces by these so-called life-lovers. They’re derided as lazy and irresponsible, and told to pull themselves up by their boot straps, while never having the benefit of boots.

Embryos that one day worship in Muslim communities around these white Christians, aren’t afforded any passionate defense and aren’t celebrated with effusive social media soliloquies. They’re branded as terrorist sympathizers, their religious freedoms ignored and their very existence resented with checkout line coldness, airport side-eye stares, and travel ban exclusion.

And perhaps most ironically of all, embryos that grow into women who desire the final say regarding their own bodies-- will find their lives and wills are now of little concern. They will be legislatively subjugated by those who’d have once declared them precious.

...I wish white Christian Conservatives had the same passion for migrant children, school shooting victims, sick toddlers, young black men, Muslim families, LGBTQ teens, the environment, and women’s autonomy over their bodies that they have for embryos.

Then they’d actually be pro-life, and then we’d all be able to go about the work together of caring for humanity wherever there is need to do so.

Yes, white Conservatives love embryos.

Disparate human beings who bear little resemblance to them—not so much.

The South Bronx congressional district from which Jose Serrano is retiring, doesn't have many white Conservatives. In fact, only 2.5% of the district's population is white. And when Republicans run there, it's just a publicity stunt. NY-15 is the bluest district in America. Obama won it with 95% the first time he ran and with 97% the second time. In 2016, Trump only took 4.9% of the vote, his worst performance anywhere in the country. This cycle, though, conservatives might get lucky. One of their own is running for the open congressional seat... and running as a Democrat.

Yesterday, Alex Rogers, warned CNN.com readers that City Councilman Rubén Díaz Sr., New York's most right-wing Democrat, has a chance to slip into the seat. Ironically, NY-15 is right next to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's district and Díaz enjoys telling everyone he's the opposite of her. He sure is. Rogers calls him "a 76-year-old, cowboy hat-wearing Pentecostal minister known for his constituent services and controversial statements on social issues" and makes his path to victory clear-- a split among half a dozen progressive and mainstream candidates could leave the crackpot with a primary win.

Councilman Ritchie Torres-- the first out gay person to hold elected office in the borough and a likely competitor in the race-- told CNN, "Rubén Díaz Sr. is the most vicious homophobe in New York State politics."

This is anti-Choice maniac Ruben Diaz, Sr campaigning with anti-Choice maniac Ted Cruz

Díaz, a self-proclaimed "conservative Democrat" is out of step with the national party's views on abortion and same-sex marriage. He was the only Democrat in the state Senate to vote against a bill legalizing same-sex marriage in 2011. And he has been sharply criticized in recent months for saying the City Council is "controlled by the homosexual community"; he was subsequently stripped of his chairmanship of the For-Hire Vehicle committee and urged to resign by the City Council Speaker Corey Johnson.

...But Díaz, who previously served in the New York State Senate for 15 years, is viewed as a strong contender in the campaign with a proven base of support, especially among senior citizens, ministers through his New York Hispanic Clergy Organization and taxi cab drivers.

"No one should underestimate Rubén Díaz Sr.," said US Rep. Nydia Velázquez, who has not endorsed anyone in the emerging race. "The voters know him."

Díaz is set to face Torres and Assemblyman Michael Blake, a vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee who will officially announce his campaign at a rally Sunday, in the primary.

Torres told CNN it is "extremely probable" that he will run for Serrano's seat. He said he would focus on issues like increasing federal investment in public housing, building on his work as the chairman of the relevant committee in the City Council.

In a separate interview, Blake said his record on criminal justice reform issues-- including boosting efforts to raise the age of criminal responsibility, banning commercial bail and helping charitable bail organizations assist poor people-- can't be beat.

Yet, they both turned their sharpest comments for Díaz Sr. In calling out his controversial statements regarding the gay community, Torres said Díaz Sr. should be running in the Republican primary instead. And Blake called Díaz's rhetoric "absolutely unacceptable," "divisive," "hateful" and "not at all becoming of someone that should be running for Congress or quite frankly an elected office."

...Díaz Sr. boasts multiple advantages in a congressional race, from sharing the same name as his son, Rubén Díaz Jr., the Bronx borough president, to having a defined constituency in a multi-candidate race. And more may come besides Torres and Blake: Marlene Cintron, the president of the Bronx Overall Economic Development Corporation, told CNN she was considering running and will make her decision in June or July.

"If it's more than two candidates running in the same race that he's in, I'm afraid that he is going to be the next member of Congress from that district," said Gerson Borrero, a NY1 political commentator, told CNN. "He does have a base, which is a problem with this guy."

...All of these factors are on the minds of some of the Democratic members of Congress from New York. In interviews, they generally praised Torres and Blake-- who worked on Barack Obama's 2008 campaign and then in the White House-- while noting others could also join the race. But the conversation turned sour when asked about Díaz Sr.

Rep. Adriano Espaillat said Torres is "one of the good candidates" and Blake is "also a worthy candidate." When asked about Díaz, Espaillat said, "We'll leave that one."

Ocasio-Cortez, who serves the neighboring district, said it was "unfortunate" that Díaz entered the race. "He has a disturbing track record towards the LGBT American community," Ocasio-Cortez told CNN. She said she would "absolutely not" support his candidacy. (Díaz has claimed he is the "opposite" of Ocasio-Cortez.)

...To be sure, there will be other issues in the race besides Díaz's candidacy. Torres called for a congressional investigation into Trump administration's "almost willfully starving" of Puerto Rico. And he has straddled ideological lines, supporting Sen. Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential primary, without embracing that candidate's signature issues like single-payer health care or the Green New Deal. Torres calls himself a "pragmatic progressive" that wants to "maximize" renewable energy and supports "at a minimum" providing a public health insurance option. He notes all the hospitals in the area and says he wants to hear from the unions before considering more sweeping overhaul of the health care sector.

CNN went out of its way to ignore the grassroots progressive candidates who aren't part of the establishment-- several running AOC-type campaigns. Remember, this is a district that has had some of the lowest voter turnout for congressional primaries. People there are going to need a progressive candidate that will inspire voters of all ages to go to the polls. So far the one we see most likely to be able to accomplish that is a local activist Tomas Ramos. Take a look at this introductory video:





Yesterday I asked Ramos which issues are going to motivate voters in the district and get them ti turn out for him. He told me that these are the three big ones that he's running on:

The 1994 omnibus crime bill allocated $30 billion worth of funds that in essence decimated communities of color which in effect accelerated mass incarceration. The bulk of the funds were dedicated to punitive measures and not toward rehabilitative or preventative services. In an effort to turn the tide to adopt and implement therapeutic jurisprudence I currently oversee an alternative to incarceration program. It diverts low-level offenders away from the criminal justice system by offering them a space which is focused on illustrating how crimes affect the community as a whole. This is the type of reform which is needed in the justice criminal justice system.

The Gun-Free Schools Act accelerated the school to prison pipeline. The law mandated yearlong suspensions for students that were caught bringing a weapon to school. When states  started interpreting "weapon" very broadly it lead to zero-tolerance policies which increased suspensions and expulsions. These suspensions have affected a disproportionate number of black and Latino students. This type of ‘broken windows’ policies in schools has lead to an increase in out of school suspensions. With the adoption of such policies, resources are catered toward policing students rather than creating alternative educational career pathways such as an investment in vocational trade institutions.

The Reagan era decimated most of the social safety nets which low-income Americans had come to rely on. With this type of disinvestment on the federal level, HUD was reduced to being a reactive entity. Succeeding administrations have failed to ensure that the agency receives adequate funding. NYCHA, which is the country’s largest public housing entity has felt the effects of this disinvestment. It is estimated that NYCHA will need at least $32 billion over the next five years to repair its crumbling infrastructure. With a myriad of needs HUD requires a higher level of funding to ensure that its housing stock and voucher programs remain intact to serve its most disenfranchised Americans.

Is he for Medicare-For-All, the Green New Deal, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, free public colleges, women's Choice, gender equality...? Of course, all of the above. But he knows his district and he is certain the people who live there want to talk about the issues he's emphasizing, even above and beyond the more national issues. If you'd like to contribute to his campaign-- and help stop Rubén Díaz Sr.-- please click on the DWT ActBlue thermometer above.

Can A Right-Wing, Anti-Choice, Homophobic Maniac Get Elected To Congress From The Single Bluest District In The U.S.? Short Answer: Yes

Diaz says he's "the opposite" of AOC-- and he sure is!

There are 435 congressional districts in the country. VA-10 in the DC suburbs is the wealthiest one-- #1 out of 435, with a median income of $114,566. If there's a #1, there'd also got to be a #435, right? There is and it's NY-15 in the South Bronx. The median income there is $25,213. The ethnic make-up of the district is 65.9% Latino (many from Puerto Rico, but also immigrants from the Dominican Republic, Ecuador and Central America), 28.2% Black, 2.5% White and 1.8% Asian. The PVI is D+44. How does that manifest itself? Mitt Romney got 3.0% of the vote in 2012 and 4 years later Trump got 4.9%.

Last year the long-time Democratic incumbent, José Serrano, beat his Republican opponent, Jason Gonzalez 124,469 (96%) to 5,205 (4%). Earlier this year, Serrano, who is suffering from Parkinson's disease, announced he would be retiring at the end of this term. He's a special kind of congressman. In 2008, when every single member of Congress from New York City voted to bail out the banksters, Serrano was the one "no" vote. Criticized by his colleagues-- who he embarrassed-- he shot back that he couldn't see showering taxpayer money on the millionaires and billionaires whose greed and avarice caused the financial collapse. The Bronx machine politicians have never been fans and are certainly happy to see him go.

Everyone has expected a tough primary. The first candidate in was 31 year old City Councilman Ritchie Torres, the first openly gay Bronx elected official and a solid progressive. The second one is another city councilman, New York's most viciously homophobic politician, 75 year old right-wing sociopath and anti-Choice fanatic, Rubén Díaz, Sr. In February the City Council took away Díaz's committee chairmanship after he refused to apologize for telling a radio audience that the Council (he later added the state government in Albany as well) is "controlled by the homosexual community." When he declared for the House seat last week, Díaz made sure to announce that he's "not progressive, I’m a conservative Democrat," that conservative Democrats have no voice and that he's "the opposite" of AOC. Díaz is certainly not a Democrat in the way normal people understand what a Democrat is. Aside from his perverse obsession with homosexuality, he campaigned for Ted Cruz in 2016 and later said he likes Trump too.

Others considering a run for a rare open congressional seat are state Senator Gustavo Rivera, Assemblyman Michael Blake, Tomas Ramos, Councilwoman Vanessa Gibson, Jonathan Ortiz and Ocasio-Cortez ally Samelys Lopez, a community activist. A close friend in the Bronx told me today that "If the primary is crowded with progressives, Díaz will absolutely win the Democratic nomination. You don't need a majority-- just the most votes. Let's hope that if that does happen, the Working Families Party will have a good, strong progressive on the general election ballot.

Two Good Progressives Are Retiring From Congress

Tom Udall and Jose Serrano

Yesterday, Congressman José Serrano (D-NY) and Senator Tom Udall (D-NM) both announced they would be retiring next year at the end of their current terms. Both have been excellent members of Congress and both have strong "A" grades from ProgressivePunch.

Serrano, who has described himself as being "to the left of the left," was first elected in 1990, bucking the corrupt Bronx Democratic machine. In 2008, when every single member of Congress from New York City voted to bail out the banksters, Serrano was the one "no" vote. Criticized by his colleagues-- who he embarrassed-- he shot back that he couldn't see showering taxpayer money on the millionaires and billionaires whose greed and avarice caused the financial collapse.

His south Bronx district-- which goes from Port Morris and Mott Haven up to the Bronx Zoo and Belmont-- is poorest congressional district in the whole country. Ethnically, it is 66.1% Hispanic, 28.1% Black and 2.3% White. It is also one of the bluest districts. Serrano was never reelected with less than 92% of the vote-- despite the Machine trying to oust him-- and Democrats always fare well there. In 2008, Obama beat McCain 95-5%. The voters like what Obama did and in 2012 they rewarded him a 96.7% to 3.0% win. Hillary trounced Trump-- 93.8% to 4.9%. The PVI is D+44, the best in the whole country. The last Republican presidential candidate to win the district was Calvin Coolidge in 1924; they were smart enough to have learned their lesson. NY-15 has been a haven for immigrants from Latin America, who have, in recent years, turned around the deterioration and put the area on a forward path.

In a press release, he said he is "living with Parkinson’s disease. After my diagnosis, I initially planned to continue my work representing the people of the South Bronx far into the future- a responsibility that brings me great joy. Although this disease has not affected my work in Congress, over the last few months I’ve come to the realization that Parkinson’s will eventually take a toll, and that I cannot predict its rate of advancement. Because of this uncertainty, I do not intend to seek re-election in 2020. I do intend to serve the remainder of my term in the 116th Congress."

“I plan to spend the rest of the 116th Congress fighting for the progressive values that I learned in the South Bronx. I will use my role as Chairman of the Commerce, Justice, Science Subcommittee to fight for climate change research, a fairer justice system, and an accurate 2020 Census count. There is still a lot of work to be done to stop the harmful policies of the Trump Administration, and I am proud to help lead in that effort as an Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman.

As I start to take stock of my career, I am extremely proud of the work we did to revitalize the Bronx River, to bring billions of federal dollars to our borough, to expand access to the ballot for language minorities, to increase STEM resources for minority students, to end the bombing of  Vieques, to make our immigration policies fairer and our foreign policies better, to provide legal services for the poor, and to push for a fair and accurate Census. 

I always tried to speak for those who are marginalized in our society-- to give them a voice and a vote here in Washington. Together, we fought to empower our community by seeking social justice and speaking truth to power.

I pledge to my constituents that I will be here fighting for you until my last day in office and beyond. I am grateful to all my colleagues for their dedication to our community, and for the years we spent working together on so many important issues. To my constituents-- it has been the honor of my life to serve you. To have gone from Mayaguez, to Mill Brook Houses, to the New York State Assembly, to the halls of Congress is truly the American Dream. I am honored to have had your trust over the years.

There should be a tough primary fight in this district (which borders on AOC's district). Serrano's son, also José Serrano, is a state senator but the only declared candidate so far is City Councilman Ritchie Torres (photo on the right), the first Bronx elected official from the LGBTQ community, who was gearing up to primary Serrano. I guarantee there will be more candidates tossing their hats into the ring.

On the Senate side, Tom Udall has been the most progressive of New Mexico politicians in Congress since being elected to the House in 1998 and then the Senate in 2008. New Mexico has been trending blue in the past couple of decades. When I was growing up, Republicans kept winning presidential elections there. After the Barry Goldwater debacle in 1964, Republicans kept winning-- Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Bush I. Because of a relatively big vote for independent Ross Perot in 1992 (165), Bill Clinton beat Bush. Clinton won again in 1996 and it's been all blue since then, with the except of Bush II in 2004. Even Hillary managed to squeak out a plurality-- 48.26% to 40.04%. Both senators are Democrats. All three House seats are held by Democrats, even the red-leaning one. Democrats have majorities in the state House (47-23) and state Senate (26-16) and control all 6 statewide offices-- governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, state auditor and commissioner of public lands. Hector Balderas is extremely popular-- generally the state's top vote getter. This may scare Cheri Bustos but he was first elected to the state House by defeating a conservative, anti-Choice/pro-gun Democrat (Benji Regensberg) in a primary. The Beltway insider candidate is Ben Ray Luján. It would be awesome to see him give up his House seat and then get beaten by Balderas. The Republicans will probably put some crackpot up who will get around 40%.

In a message to New Mexico voters, Udal wrote:

When I first ran for Senate, I promised that I would give my all for the people of New Mexico. And I reminded myself that this Senate seat is not my seat. It is New Mexico’s seat.

I was proud to serve as New Mexico’s Attorney General, then in the U.S. House, and now two terms as your senator. I’m confident that we could run a strong campaign next year to earn a third term, because of all the work you and I have done together, along with my wife, Jill, and my incredibly dedicated staff.

But the worst thing anyone in public office can do is believe the office belongs to them, rather than to the people they represent. That’s why I’m announcing today that I won’t be seeking re-election next year.

Too bad it wasn't some of the ones who do believe the office belongs to them-- fossils who plan to die in office like Feinstein (85), McTurtle (77), Grassley (85), Shelby (84) and Inhofe (84).

2020 Primary Challenges Could Get Pretty Ugly-- No, No... They Will Be Ugly For Sure

No one can put the Ocasio-Crowley primary in a box and sell it in other districts

Last week the New York Times published a lazy piece by Shane Goldmacher, The Ocasio-Cortez Effect: Wave of Challenges Hits Entrenched N.Y. Democrats, that defines superficial reporting. It should be lost on no one that Ocasio Cortez's stunning and successful campaign against New York's ultimate congressional insider ("the next speaker of the House"), Queens County machine boss, Joe Crowley, was utterly missed-- if not purposefully ignored-- by her hometown paper. Perhaps they're making a half-assed attempt to make up for it by covering some generally non-existent primaries in the area. "Half assed" is better described as quarter-assed... if that. The first sentence may be correct-- let's hope: "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may be just the beginning." But Goldmacher goes nowhere from the correct way to begin his piece.

Blue America has been involved, on one level or another, in every successful Democratic primary against a conservative incumbent since 2006-- Donna Edwards, Beto, Matt Cartwright, AOC... We have also been involved on a ton of them that haven't been successful. If I've learned one thing it's that they succeed when a determined and capable challenger (very, very hard to find, let alone invent) takes on an easily-defined villain with an established bad record. That was certainly the case with Edwards in Maryland, Beto in Texas, Cartwright in Pennsylvania and Ocasio Cortez in New York. Each of them is an extremely talented and charismatic politician and each ran against a corrupt, out-of-touch conservative who was supported fully by an establishment generally loathed by the grassroots.

Goldmacher generally neglected to look at any of that and instead spouts irrelevant nonsense like "Party insurgents are plotting and preparing to battle with the entrenched establishment-- targeting as many as a half-dozen Congress members in and around New York City-- over what it means to be a Democrat and a progressive in the age of President Trump. The coming New York uprising could result in a series of races that lay bare some of the same generational, racial, gender and ideological cleavages expected to define the 2020 presidential primary. The activist left, in particular, hopes that Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s victory will inspire a brush fire of Democrat-on-Democrat campaigns that will spread from New York across the nation."

"Party insurgents?" Really? Grass roots activists might be a better way to describe the point he's fumbling towards. As for "generational, racial, gender and ideological cleavages," which worked in Ocasio Cortez's campaign, we'll have to look at each race Goldmacher is reporting to be a potential primary battle. He's certainly right when he claims "serious primary challengers for House seats have historically been rare, and it is almost unheard of for so many to emerge in one region so early in the election cycle." And they haven't emerged, except on the page in the Times his piece was published on.

The first member Goldmacher identifies as a potential target is Jerry Nadler-- who represents a district that includes areas of Manhattan (the Upper West Side, Soho, Chelsea, the Village, the Financial District) and Brooklyn (mostly Borough Park). His super-highly educated Manhattan constituents are not likely to be persuaded he's a villain at all. His ProgressivePunch score is "A" and has always been "A" and his voting record is ranked-- and has always been ranked-- among the 20 most perfect progressive records in Congress. I don't think Nadler or his team ever thought he could be primaried from the left. His last primary was in 2016 when the far right Hassidics who run Borough Park recruited and supported a candidate, Mikhail Oliver Rosenberg, son of a millionaire, to run against Nadler when he voted for the Iran nuclear deal. It looked like if they could order their zombie followers to go out and vote against Nadler-- in what was predicted to be a low-turn-out election, they could pull off an upset. (They even persuaded racist former comedian Jackie Mason to cut a robocall for their candidate.) Instead it was the second highest turn-out primary in the state that year and Mason and the zombies were nowhere to be seen.

Rosenberg fancied himself the new generation (and a part of a strong LGBTQ community) up against an old and tired Nadler. (Nadler has been in the forefront of every pro-gay initiative in his career and gay organizations backed Nadler.) Rosenberg campaigned on a solid green energy platform, on legalizing marijuana, and as an advocate for Israel. 85% of his campaign expenditures ($366,852) came from his own bank account and, like Trump, he claimed he wouldn't be beholden to special interests. Nadler beat Rosenberg in a landslide-- 88.78% to 10.26%.

Goldmacher reports that next year "Nadler could face a primary from Lindsey Boylan, a former economic development adviser to Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, who appears to want to run on a platform of "I'm a woman and he's not."

She said she was considering a run after watching the 2018 midterms, as “these women decided not to wait their turn because it was never going to be their turn.”

“I just can’t justify having my daughter watch me sit on the sidelines,” she said.

A huge X-factor in any Nadler primary would be the billionaire activist Tom Steyer, who has pushed for the impeachment of Mr. Trump. Mr. Steyer has already polled the popularity of impeachment in the district and is launching a $200,000 direct mail, television and digital ad campaign this week urging Mr. Nadler to begin impeachment hearings in his committee.

Goldmacher identified Tom Suozzi, Eliot Engel, Yvette Clarke, José Serrano, Carolyn Maloney and Kathleen Rice as likely targets. Suozzi, Engel and Rice are New Dems with relatively conservative voting records. Serrano, Maloney and Clarke are members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Engel is rumored to be buying his way into the Progressive Caucus so he will be able to use that membership to claim he's progressive. These are the crucial vote scores for all 7 candidates identified in the piece.

• Yvette Clarke- 95.88- A
• Jerry Nadler- 94.98- A
• José Serrano- 93.71- A
• Carolyn Maloney- 86.47- C
• Eliot Engel- 85.30- C
• Kathleen Rice- 63.16- F
• Tom Suozzi- 54.05- F

"Not every challenge in New York," wrote Goldmacher, "will be run on ideological grounds. Some will be powered by more local disputes, longstanding grudges or just timely ambition. But for many progressives, the goal is to police the Democratic Party ideologically, much in the way the Tea Party pushed Republicans to the right."

“We are trying to elect more Alexandrias,” said Alexandra Rojas, executive director of Justice Democrats, the insurgent group devoted to recruiting progressive primary challengers nationally. “She is an example of what one victory can do. Imagine what we can do with more primary wins across the country.”

After Mr. Crowley’s defeat almost no one is seen as untouchable.

“They should be afraid,” Maria L. Svart, the national director of the Democratic Socialists of America, which backed Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, said of incumbent House Democrats.

Ms. Ocasio-Cortez herself appeared in a promotional video for Justice Democrats and on an organizing call for the group last November during which Saikat Chakrabarti, now her chief of staff, declared, “We gotta primary folks.”

True, but targets should be carefully chosen. It amazes me, for example, that Justice Democrats and DSA have seemingly ignored, at least so far, corrupt New Dem Gregory Meeks. Nadler and Serrano may not be perfect-- but they certainly are in comparison to Meeks, who seems to exist in Congress primarily to collect bribes. A member of the House Financial Services Committee, he's taken $3,665,788 from the Finance Sector, including $564,100 in the last cycle. What's more, Meeks' likely challenger is the ideal candidate for the seat. Khaair Morrison is a 25 year old African-American attorney born and raised in the district, which, he told me yesterday "is ripe for a fresh leadership after having ineffective leadership for 20+ years. Working class neighborhoods like South East Queens, Nassau, Valley Stream, and Far Rockaway have had an up-close seat to the major issues of our time. After Hurricane Sandy, areas are still rebuilding as we see the effects of Global Warming. We were the epicenter for the foreclosure crisis and many have still not able to get their homes back. We see the brutality of broken windows and mass incarceration as our kids are constantly targeted for low-level offenses that ruin opportunities for black and brown lives to be productive members of our society. We have seen how poor infrastructure and lack of planning can ruin a neighborhood's vitality. We have seen the decrepit state of public housing and are still without creative ideas to make housing more equitable. It is time we do things differently and that we speak truth to power." True, that-- and time for a self-serving do-nothing congressman like Meeks to bow out and let a fresh can-do kind of guy like Morrison take the seat.

Meeks is one of the New York congressmembers who Goldmacher was no doubt referring to when he wrote that they "have sought to establish personal or professional bonds with Ocasio-Cortez, signing onto her Green New Deal, for instance-- recognizing the power of her megaphone. In an interview in January, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said she had 'put zero energy' into the question of primarying colleagues. She said the freshman class had 'already changed the opinions and commitments of a lot of incumbent members already. And I think that is something we should absolutely consider.' Whether or not Ms. Ocasio-Cortez gets personally involved, insurgent groups are plowing ahead."

Let me jump to Carolyn Maloney, a difficult target ideologically put perfect for a reformist challenger to take on based on ethics. Her corruption is just mind-boggling, even if her voting record is pretty good. She's not just a member of the House Financial Services Committee, she's the chair of the Subcommittee on Investor Protection, Entrepreneurship, and Capital Markets-- and exploits that to the max in her fundraising efforts. Among current members of the House, only 3 have been bigger Finance Sector money pigs than Maloney. A case can-- and should-- be made that these are the half dozen most corrupt members of Congress, at least in regard to Wall Street banksters, and that they should all be carted off to jail holding tanks before their trials:

• Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)- $8,086,692
• Steny Hoyer (D-MD)- $6,865,814
• Jim Himes (New Dem-CT)- $6,376,379
• Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)- $6,309,318
• Patrick McHenry (R-NC)- $5,627,242
• Steve Stivers (R-OH)- $5,620,077

Suraj Patel ran against Maloney in 2018 and may do it again next year. He ought to. NY-12 is a solidly blue district (D+31) that spans Manhattan (Yorkville, the Upper East Side, Midtown, Kips Bay, Gramercy Park, Alphabet City and the Lower East Side), Queens (Astoria, Long Island City, Sunnyside) and Brooklyn (Greenpoint and north Williamsburg). Interstate 278 separates Maloney's district from Ocasio's in Queens. Of the 251,604 people who voted in 2018, 190,771 were in Manhattan, 35,728 in Queens and 25,105 in Brooklyn. The district has changed-- and rapidly, as Ocasio's had-- and in similar ways. First of all, though not most important per se, the D+27 PVI in 2017 jumped to D+31 in 2019. That's a big jump and it's the other changes that account for it. The white population is smaller but still dominant, though the fastest growing demos are Asians, Latinos, Arabs and-- very significantly-- highly educated and politicized millennials. Patel: "The status quo isn’t good enough. Our values are under attack by leaders that don’t share or understand our lived experiences, and it’s going to take new ideas and louder voices to make real change... We deserve a congressperson who isn’t recklessly indifferent to the less privileged."

Patel ended up with a bit over 40% of the vote, a great accomplishment against a forever incumbent on a first try. Goldmacher interviewed Sean McElwee, who has been involved in finding primary challengers in New York and who was a co-founder of the progressive think tank Data for Progress. McElwee told him that "in deep blue states, Republicans increasingly don’t exist. We spend a lot of time thinking about why we have right-wing corporate Democrats selling out our interests." McElwee told him the push to recruit a challenger to Engel, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee and has been in Congress for three decades (and who represents the Likud Party of Israel and their lobbyists, AIPAC, far more than he does the folks who live in the 16th district (including Riverdale, Fieldston and Eastchester in the Bronx, abutting Ocasio's district, and New Rochelle, Yonkers, Mount Vernon, Mamaroneck, Scarsdale and up to Rye and Hastings-on-Hudson in Westchester.

Blue America has been trying to find a local elected official to take Engel on for years, but with not a nibble. McElwee calls finding a primary opponent for him a "top priority" and recently commissioned a poll there. The district used to be overwhelming white but now whites only make up 39% of the population. Blacks, Latinos and Asians make it a minority-majority district. McElwee is eager to find "a younger candidate of color in 2020; only about a half-dozen white Democratic men represent a more diverse district in Congress than Mr. Engel," wrote Goldmacher.

One potential challenger mulling a run is Andom Ghebreghiorgis, a Yale graduate and 33-year-old educator in Mount Vernon, who said that Ms. Ocasio-Cortez "showed there’s a hunger, especially here in New York, for representatives who reflect the changing progressive politics of their communities."

In a statement, Mr. Engel praised the party’s "new energy" and said the fact that anyone can run "is the beauty of our electoral system." But, he added, "think we’re doing the people we represent and the country a disservice by focusing on 2020 primaries when we have so much to do right now in Washington."

Yeah-- but not in NY-16. There are 4 congressmembers who represent parts of the Bronx, Ocasio, Engel, Adriano Espaillat-- a relatively new member, a progressive and a very good fit for the district-- and José Serrano (NY-15) in the center of the borough, in some ways the furthest left district in New York. The PVI is D+44, the bluest in the state and Trump only managed to win 4.9% of the vote in 2016 (slightly better than Romney did, but still Trump's worst performance anywhere in America. Only 2% of the population is white. The last Republican who won this district was Calvin Coolidge in 1924. The Bronx Machine has been eager to take Serrano out for some time but no one wants to run against him. In 2014 his primary opponent, Sam Sloan won 9% of the vote. His 2016 primary opponent, Leonel Baez won 10.8% and in 2018 there was no primary opponent. In the 2018 general election, the Republican candidate was Jason Gonzalez and Serrano beat him 124,469 (96%) to 5,205 (4%). City Councilman Ritchie Torres, a 30-year-old often described as a rising star, is weighing a run based on the whole "it's my turn, you're too old" thing.

Yvette Clarke, who won with only 53%, is facing a rematch with Adem Bunkeddeko, the Harvard-educated son of war Ugandan refugees who had been endorsed by the New York Times. "We’re at a moment of reckoning. Some people get it and some people don’t. Maybe someone’s seventh term is the charm? But most of us aren’t holding our breath." Goldmacher spoke with her and she told him that "she had reorganized her district office following the 2018 close call and is aggressively selling her progressive credentials in the more gentrified and liberal parts of the district, such as Park Slope. 'I definitely will not be caught by surprise.' She has among the dozen most progressive voting records in Congress. Bunkeddeko's point is that she's basically just a backbencher who votes well and doesn't do much for the district.

The last two likely primary races are on Long Island-- Tom Suozzi and Kathleen Rice, both New Dems who are going to be challenged from the left. I'm going to do a separate post on these two races because both are swingy districts that could, at least in theory, flip red if the incumbents are beaten.


UPDATE: Democratic Primary In Arizona

At dawn today, the Arizona Republic reported that Eva Putzova, a former Flagstaff city councilwoman, is running for the AZ-01 seat currently held by reactionary Blue Dog Tom O'Halleran.

Putzova, who announced her candidacy in January, said her top priority in Congress would be to address the process immigrants have to go through to become citizens. She said the current system takes too long and leaves people at the mercy of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers for far too long.

She also wants ICE restructured.

“Nobody is saying that enforcement in immigration is not important, but ICE as an agency is rogue,” she said. “It needs to be completely restructured.”

..."A #GreenNewDeal should be every candidates priority in 2020," she tweeted Feb. 10 in support of the "Green New Deal" environmental plan championed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

Her campaign website lists other top issues: universal health care, tuition-free college, indigenous peoples' rights, "meaningful climate action," "no more wars," women's reproductive health and workers' rights.

...O’Halleran, the two-term incumbent, appears to have the support of national Democrats.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently added him to its "Frontline" program.

The DCCC's Frontline program is designed to help provide Democratic members of Congress with the support they need to win re-election. O’Halleran is now one of 44 members of Congress in the program.

“Tom O’Halleran wins tough races because he understands the concerns of hard-working Arizonans, and because he never forgot where he came from,” Rep. Cheri Bustos, the 2020 cycle's DCCC chairwoman, said in a written statement.

“We’re proud to stand with Tom as a member of our Frontline program to ensure he has the support he needs to win and keep working for Arizona,” Bustos (Blue Dog-IL) added.

Blue America has already endorsed Eva Putzova and if you'd like to see another member of Congress who supports Bernie's platform replace an "ex"-Republican Blue Dog, please click on the ActBlue Primary A Blue Dog thermometer on the right and contribute what you can.

The Two Poorest Districts In The Country And Polar Opposite Views On Health Care Reform

Although Max Baucus has veered dangerously off the path to create an expensive and unsustainable welfare system for wealthy health care and insurance corporations-- his campaign donors-- at the expense of the middle class, Obama has always insisted that his vision of health care reform was all about bringing in as many families as possible who aren't adequately covered and are just one tragedy away from complete ruin. It's a worthy goal and a real test for the Obama presidency. Is he going to go with the Baucus Caucus-- which certainly includes Rahm Emanuel, his malevolent Chief of Staff-- or is he going to make good on the promise of Hope he made to the American people?

Let's take a look at the two poorest congressional districts in the United States-- NY-16, basically the South Bronx, which gave McCain his smallest percentage in last year's election (5%) and is represented by a strongly progressive advocate for working families, José Serrano; and KY-05, the mountainous eastern part of Kentucky where McCain won his biggest percentage in the state of Kentucky (67%), which is represented by a reactionary corporate tool, Hal Rogers who isn't an advocate for families but mealy mouthed supporter of "family values." The median income in NY-16 is $19,311 and the median income in KY-05 is $21,915. Rogers' district is the reddest in Kentucky with nearly a 16 PVI for Republicans while Serrano's district offers a 41 PVI for Democrats. Any political change in either district would come on a primary level, not in a general election. Rogers is the most reactionary member of the Kentucky House delegation (ProgressivePunch score of 2.37, not quite as bad as Dan Burton but worse than Tom McClintock) and Serrano is near the top of the New York delegation (with a score of 87.17).

There are few districts in the country where people would benefit more from the passage of meaningful health care reform than in these two districts. 22% of the people in KY-05 are uninsured, 146,000 people and 126,000 of them would be eligible for high-quality, affordable health insurance if a bill like HR 3200 passes. Rogers is a complete shill for the Insurance Industry and the Medical-Industrial Complex, which have lavished approximately a quarter million dollars in thinly veiled bribes on him. He is an unyielding opponent of health care reform, as strongly against it as Serrano is for it. Serrano has signed two letters saying he won't vote for bogus reform that doesn't include at least a public option. His district is even worse off than Rogers' with 159,000 uninsured people (24%), of which 139,000 would gain access to high-quality, affordable health insurance if HR 3200 gets signed into law.

Let's look at the stats on how HR 3200 would impact each district according to an official report from the House Energy and Commerce Committee. First Rogers' KY-05:

• Help for small businesses. Under the legislation, small businesses with 25 employees or less and average wages of less than $40,000 qualify for tax credits of up to 50% of the costs of providing health insurance. There are up to 10,700 small businesses in the district that could qualify for these credits.

• Help for seniors with drug costs in the Part D donut hole. Each year, 7,500 seniors in the district hit the donut hole and are forced to pay their full drug costs, despite having Part D drug coverage. The legislation would provide them with immediate relief, cutting brand name drug costs in the donut hole by 50%, and ultimately eliminate the donut hole.

• Health care and financial security. There were 1,500 health care-related bankruptcies in the district in 2008, caused primarily by the health care costs not covered by insurance. The bill provides health insurance for almost every American and caps annual out-of-pocket costs at $10,000 per year, ensuring that no citizen will have to face financial ruin because of high health care costs.

• Relieving the burden of uncompensated care for hospitals and health care providers. In 2008, health care providers in the district provided $173 million worth of uncompensated care, care that was provided to individuals who lacked insurance coverage and were unable to pay their bills. Under the legislation, these costs of uncompensated care would be virtually eliminated.

• Coverage of the uninsured. There are 146,000 uninsured individuals in the district, 22% of the district. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that nationwide, 97% of all Americans will have insurance coverage when the bill takes effect. If this benchmark is reached in the district, 126,000 people who currently do not have health insurance will receive coverage.

• No deficit spending. The cost of health care reform under the legislation is fully paid for: half through making the Medicare and Medicaid program more efficient and half through a surtax on the income of the wealthiest individuals. This surtax would affect only 850 households in the district. The surtax would not affect 99.6% of taxpayers in the district.

Rogers' district is 97.1% white and is considered the OxyContin capital of America, which may explain why there are so many dittoheads in the area. There isn't a district in the country where so many poor people vote for politicians so dedicated to policies designed to maintain the status quo. Now let's look at how passage of HR 3200 would impact Serrano's district:

• Help for small businesses. Under the legislation, small businesses with 25 employees or less and average wages of less than $40,000 qualify for tax credits of up to 50% of the costs of providing health insurance. There are up to 7,300 small businesses in the district that could qualify for these credits.

• Help for seniors with drug costs in the Part D donut hole. Each year, 2,900 seniors in the district hit the donut hole and are forced to pay their full drug costs, despite having Part D drug coverage. The legislation would provide them with immediate relief, cutting brand name drug costs in the donut hole by 50%, and ultimately eliminate the donut hole.

• Health care and financial security. There were 640 health care-related bankruptcies in the district in 2008, caused primarily by the health care costs not covered by insurance. The bill provides health insurance for almost every American and caps annual out-of-pocket costs at $10,000 per year, ensuring that no citizen will have to face financial ruin because of high health care costs.

• Relieving the burden of uncompensated care for hospitals and health care providers. In 2008, health care providers in the district provided $156 million worth of uncompensated care, care that was provided to individuals who lacked insurance coverage and were unable to pay their bills. Under the legislation, these costs of uncompensated care would be virtually eliminated.

• Coverage of the uninsured. There are 159,000 uninsured individuals in the district, 24% of the district. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that nationwide, 97% of all Americans will have insurance coverage when the bill takes effect. If this benchmark is reached in the district, 139,000 people who currently do not have health insurance will receive coverage.

Insurance industry lobbyists and CEOs aren't exactly José Serrano's biggest fans and the Insurance Industry has only donated $15,650 to his campaigns since he was elected in 2 decades ago. The district is 3% white-- so an ethnic mirror image of Rogers' just like Serrano's championing of poor working families is a mirror image of Roger's unswerving support for the elites that run the plutonomy that keeps his constituents in poverty and ignorance. Yesterday Rogers eagerly voted against funding for ACORN, an organization dedicated to helping lift poor working class families out of poverty. Serrano was one of only 75 congressmen with the guts to stand up to the right-wing noise machine's continuing assault on working families.