Another Blue Dog Slipped Into Congress Disguised As A Florida Democrat

Yes, we got rid of Patrick Murphy, but...

Although the DCCC listed 11 Democrats on their Front Line list of vulnerable incumbents, heading into Tuesday's election only 3 were thought be be seriously vulnerable: Ami Bera (New Dem-CA), Rick Nolan (MN) and Brad Ashford (Blue Dog-NE). Bera, who is narrowly leading, is one of only two incumbents nationally whose race still hasn't been called. The DCCC spent $2,459,123 on his campaign and Pelosi's House Majority PAC kicked down another $699,724. Nolan won his race, but the DCCC and House Majority PAC put in $7.7 million. The only Democratic incumbent to lose was Brad Ashford, a former Republican who switched to being a Blue Dog. He has the single worst voting record of any Democrat in the House, worse than several Republicans, in fact! The DCCC and House Majority PAC wasted around $3.4 million on trying to save him. If there was a silver-ling to the cloud that wrecked the DCCC's hopes Tuesday it was their failure to resuscitate the Blue Dogs in the House.

Nolan was the only progressive on the Front Line list. The rest are a pack of worthless New Dems, Blue Dogs and conservaDems.

• Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (Blue Dog-AZ)
• Rep. Ami Bera (New Dem-CA)
• Rep. Julia Brownley (CA)
• Rep. Pete Aguilar (New Dem-CA)
• Rep. Raul Ruiz (CA)
• Rep. Scott Peters (New Dem-CA)
• Rep. Cheri Bustos (Blue Dog-IL)
• Rep. Rick Nolan (MN)
• Rep. Brad Ashford (Blue Dog-NE)
• Rep. Annie Kuster (New Dem-NH)
• Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (New Dem-NY)

Most of the New Dems and Blue Dogs that the DCCC recruited this cycle were defeated Tuesday... very expensively. But, Stephanie Murphy, one who didn't lose, didn't tell voters she is a Blue Dog before the election. She defeated long-time GOP powerhouse, John Mica in the northern Orlando Metro (FL-07). She bested him by around 10,000 votes-- 51.5-48.5%.

This was Mica's first competitive re-election in decades. After the state Supreme Court redrew Florida's congressional lines, his 7th District became more Democratic. And for the first time in years, Democrats succeeded in fielding a strong candidate against the 12-term incumbent.

Republicans fretted this fall that Mica wasn't expending the time or resources to introduce himself to new voters in his redrawn district. He only recently aired his first TV spot, trailing Murphy and other Democratic groups that had been on the air earlier.

...Murphy, the member-elect, was six months old when her parents fled with her and her brother from communist Vietnam to a refugee camp in Malaysia and then moved on to settle in the United States.

Her resume includes an executive position at SunGate Capital, an investment firm, and a stint at the Defense Department where she worked as a foreign affairs specialist on a range of issues, including military relations and national security.

She teaches business and social entrepreneurship at Rollins College in Winter Park, Florida.

A fiscal conservative with plans to join the Blue Dog Coalition, Murphy supports policies including withholding lawmakers’ salaries if they don’t pass a budget on time and adding a constitutional amendment to balance the budget.

Options For Would-Be Tea Party Speaker Daniel "Taliban Dan" Webster Staying In Congress Are Closing

Daniel Webster has been in the news lately because he's "running" (not really) for House Speaker as the Freedom Caucus/Tea Party candidate. He isn't considered a serious candidate with an actual chance to ever become Speaker, just a pawn in the game between the extremists and the mainstream conservative Establishment. But ole "Taliban Dan" is probably happy he's in the news as a potential Speaker rather than as someone who's about to lose his congressional seat. Let's talk about that for a minute. In 2010 Webster was elected in the 8th district in Central Florida. The following year, the corrupt Republican state legislature gerrymandered the state up again to create as many Republican seats as they could and Webster got a nice red seat, now called the 10th. In 2008, the 8th had gone to Obama by 5 points but the newly created 10th, which put many Democratic neighborhoods into the 9th district created a frankenstein-monster of a district that includes southwestern and southeastern Orlando but skirts areas where Democrats live, Obama would have lost by 5 points, quite the swing. And, in fact, in 2012, under those lines the district-- with a PVI of R+6-- gave Romney an even heftier 53-46% win. Webster beat a weak but well-funded Democrat, Val Demings, 52-48% in 2012 and then beat an even weaker Democrat, Michael McKenna, last year 62-38%.

But then the state of Florida was sued for the gerrymandered districts and a judge threw them out and one of the districts most effected was Webster's. Under the new lines-- Under the new lines-- which includes African-American neighborhoods of west Orlando and does not include any of red-leaning Lake County (or Polk County)-- the district that gave Romney a 53.4-45.7% win over Obama would have given Obama a 60.7-38.4% landslide win. Bye-bye Webster. (The likely Democratic challenger is a well-known, well-heeled and well-liked former state Democratic Party chairman, Bob Poe, a progressive who will first have to beat DCCC/EMILY's List deadbeat, Val Demings, who wants to give it another' try but is intensely disliked in the area.)

Meanwhile, there has been constant chatter about John Mica moving up to FL-06, a deep red district, much of which was his previously and leaving FL-07, his current district. The rationale is that FL-07 is a tough district, evenly split between Democrats and Republicans and could be a challenge for Mica. Under the old lines Romney beat Obama 51.8- 47.1% but under the new lines it would have been an exact 49.4-49.4% split. (FL-06, by contrast, newly open because current Congressman Ron DeSantis is running for Rubio's open Senate seat, will have a population that gave Romney 52.2% to Obama's 46.6%, much safer for Mica.) The problem is that Mica doesn't want to move and says he won't do it, especially since the DCCC has a typically lame candidate, Blue Dog Bill Phillips who would pose no real challenge to Mica. So much for the musical chairs scenario... unless Webster wants to skip a couple districts and move up to FL-06 himself, completely new territory for him.

He'd be looked at as a carpetbagger in a basically coastal district that stretches along the 95 from below Edgewater and New Smyrna Beach all the way up along the coast through Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, and St. Augustine. Worse yet, for Webster, former Tea Party Republican Congresswoman Sandy Adams is already running in the 6th (as is New Smyrna Beach ex-mayor Adam Barringer). And the Democrat who represents Daytona Beach in the state House, Dwayne Taylor, announced last week that he's running as well. If Ted Cruz is at the top of the GOP ticket and it's an especially bad year for the GOP, FL-07 and FL-06 could both go blue (although Mica would be a better bet for the GOP in either district than Webster who would have a real struggle in both districts, though they're viewed as not as impossible as the new 10th. So, in all likelihood, like I already said... bye-bye Webster.

Boehner Makes Another Move Against His Republican Tormentors As Gerrymandered GOP Congressional Maps In Florida And Virginia Face Court-Mandated Redistricting

As we saw last month, Boehner is working, albeit covertly, with the Chamber of Commerce to rid his caucus of "uncooperative" Republicans-- libertarians like Amash and extremists like Cantor-killer Dave Brat. They want to send a message to the members of the Freedom Caucus that their careers are in jeopardy if they don't fall in line behind the GOP Establishment. This week, Jack Fitzpatrick, writing for the National Journal, pointed out that it might not be a mere coincidence that Boehner's Republican enemies are the ones most likely to lose their seats when court-mandated redrawing of gerrymandered districts goes into effect.

Three Republicans most likely to be drawn out of safe districts before the 2016 election are Boehner enemies Daniel Webster (R-FL), Dave Brat (R-VA) and Mark Meadows (R-NC).

Florida's and Virginia's legislatures are in special sessions to redraw their maps after court decisions, and the Florida lawmakers have specific instructions not to take politics into consideration. Meanwhile, the North Carolina Supreme Court is still preparing to hear arguments in a gerrymandering lawsuit. But already, there have been enough signs to scare anti-establishment conservatives.

In Florida's new draft congressional map, Webster's district absorbs thousands of Democratic voters and turns into a majority-minority seat; Webster, who ran for speaker against Boehner in 2015, told legislators that the new district would be "impossible to win." Many Republicans in Virginia would like to do the same to Brat's district as they prepare a court-ordered redistricting little more than a year after Brat defeated ex-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a primary. (Brat also voted against Boehner for speaker this winter.) And in North Carolina, the GOP congressional delegation is packed with members who have experience and connections in the state legislature that may redraw their map-- advantages that Meadows, who recently filed a motion to remove Boehner from power, does not have.

"These conservative members should definitely assume that they are enemy No. 1 on the list," said Daniel Horowitz, senior editor of the Conservative Review. "If you're going to redraw the maps, who's going to be your first priority? … If the establishment could kill two birds with one stone-- comply with the courts and pick off a conservative-- they would absolutely take that opportunity."

...In Virginia, a court directed lawmakers to shift African-American voters out of Rep. Bobby Scott's heavily Democratic district, leaving the neighboring Brat as an appealing target.

"If they could take it out on Brat, they could," said Quentin Kidd, director for Christopher Newport University's center for public policy. Kidd cited "a deep-seated frustration that Brat knocked off Cantor." Plus, he added, Brat has no high-profile defenders in the state legislature.

Ironically, Brat's saving grace could end up being Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who can sign or veto whatever plan the legislature approves. Pushing extra Democrats from Scott's district into Brat's would be the least-beneficial option for Democrats, Kidd said. Rather, Democrats see an opportunity to push potential swing seats belonging to Reps. Scott Rigell and Randy Forbes in their direction.

Rigell and Forbes are Boehner allies, and the Republican Establishment will do whatever it can to shore up their gerrymandered districts-- and if they can rid Congress of Brat, so much the better, even if it means one less Republican and one more Democrat in the House.

This is the map the Florida House came up with

Yesterday the Florida House voted 76-35 for a new map of the state’s congressional districts, one that would end the political career of extremist imbecile Daniel Webster and push right-wing Blue Dog Gwen Graham into the 2018 gubernatorial race (where she'll likely face Marco Rubio). The other incumbents most likely to lose their seats are Carlos Curbelo, David Jolly (who's trying to run for the Senate to avoid that fate) and John Mica, all Republicans. (Mica will probably face Bill Phillips, the toughest opponent who's taken him on in his long, long career, a horrible prospect for Mica in a district that doesn't include his strongholds in Volusia County.) 

The House map isn't the same as the map the Florida Senate came up with. The two GOP-controlled chambers have until Friday to reach an agreement. Or else...

Or else what? The best idea would be what just happened in Virginia. The partisan hacks in the legislature couldn't work it out and a panel of federal judges is going to draw up nonpartisan district lines-- regardless of whose toes get stepped on. I hope the judges upset the careers of every member of the state's congressional delegation so that they have to go to the voters and account for themselves and ask for the cushy job back.

A public hearing on redistricting ended abruptly Monday when the House Privileges and Elections Committee chairman, Mark L. Cole, R-Spotsylvania, refused to take further testimony after announcing that the Senate had adjourned the special legislative session hours after it began.

Cole interrupted Diana Egozcue, president of Virginia NOW and the sixth of 19 scheduled speakers, with the announcement, “We’re no longer in session, so we can no longer take your testimony.”

House Republican leaders appeared shell-shocked by the Senate maneuver, which ensures the General Assembly will not meet a Sept. 1 deadline imposed by a three-judge panel of the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to fix unconstitutional defects in the redistricting plan that then-Gov. Bob McDonnell signed in January 2012.

Gov. Terry McAuliffe issued a statement that explicitly kicked the issue back to the courts and declared, “The opportunity for a legislative remedy has ended.”

McAuliffe said he was going to send a letter to the courts. “They need to get this redistricting done,” he said in a meeting with reporters outside the Executive Mansion.

So, the court will assume the task of drawing new districts to reduce what it found to be unconstitutional gerrymandering to pack black voters into the 3rd Congressional District and reduce their influence in other districts.

...Advocates for nonpartisan, independent redistricting said the dramatic breakdown proves their point.

“This is emblematic of what’s wrong with the system,” said Dale Eisman, senior researcher at Common Cause.

“They run the process as a closed shop,” Eisman said.

Anna Scholl, executive director of ProgressVA, called it “particularly egregious that they called off the hearing and sent everyone home.”

“It doesn’t say much for the process or public input to pull the plug,” Scholl said. “They are treating this as a political game of one-upping each other and not as a transparent process that respects the voters.”

...The Republican plan was to make the least number of changes necessary to make the 3rd District comply with the court’s order to find a solution that did not pack minority voters into one district to dilute their influence in others.

The criteria the joint committee adopted would have left decisions on redistricting to the General Assembly as “elected representatives of the people,” which advocates said is the problem with the system now.

“The process of redistricting shouldn’t be about getting or keeping power for one political part or the other,” said Geneva Perry, a Williamsburg resident in the 1st District, which could be affected by changes in the 3rd District, which extends from Richmond to Norfolk.

Like we said above, Boehner was covertly intervening in the process to make sure lots of Democratic voters (African Americans) from VA-03 (Bobby Scott's district) were moved into his nemesis Dave Brat's district (VA-07) and kept out of VA-02 and VA-04, represented, respectively, by Boehner allies Scott Rigell and Randy Forbes. Boehner is already celebrating the almost certain departure from Congress of Daniel Webster from FL-10. Here's a chunk of Virgina most effected by the court ruling: