National Polling, Fine... We Need Accurate District Polls In Swing Districts

This morning we took a look at the lay of the land nationally (and in two bellweather Midwestern states, Minnesota and Iowa). Unless they're the kind of worthless polls the NY Times is doing now, I prefer district polling to get a better idea of what's going to happen in November. Polling in battleground districts is predictive-- and CBS News did just that Sunday: House control edges toward Democrats - CBS News poll. Their operation has its drawbacks as well, but not as overwhelmingly as the NY Times' silliness. Kabir Khanna and Anthony Salvanto reported that "Democrats remain in a stronger position than Republicans to win the House of Representatives, with their chances having gradually improved over the summer. We estimate that Democrats would win 224 seats if the elections were held today, which is more than the 218 needed for a majority. As we saw a month ago, CBS is extremely tepid and conservative in their polling, but their results in 61 battleground districts is still worth looking at.

The Democratic estimate has slowly but steadily increased over the past three months. It's two seats higher than one month ago and five seats higher than in June. One reason for the Democratic lead is a pattern we have consistently seen: people who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 are more unified in their support for Democratic congressional candidates than Donald Trump voters are for Republicans. While few voters are crossing over in absolute terms, the difference between parties favors Democrats. Six percent of Trump voters say they are voting Democratic, while only two percent of Clinton voters say they are voting Republican now.

...Likely voters in key districts who say they are not sure about their House vote look genuinely conflicted. Though most identify as independents, they lean conservative in terms of their expressed ideology, and more voted for Mr. Trump than for Clinton. On the other hand, they give Republicans negative marks on several issues. They are more likely to say recent Republican changes to health care and trade policy have been negative than positive, and they are ambivalent about the Republican tax bill, with half saying they have not felt its effects. Six in ten say the Republican Party works for the interests of large corporations over working people. These feelings offer an opening to Democrats to win over voters currently on the fence, most of whom say their vote isn't about which party controls the chamber.

The biggest short-coming of the CBS report is that they don't break down any of their information by district. They just give us the average of these 61 districts:

At this point FiveThirtyEight.com predicts that The Republicans have a 1 in 6 chance of holding onto the majority in the House (18%) and the Democrats have a 5 in 6 chance of gaining control (82%). Let's take a look at some Republican-held districts targeted by Democrats that were looked at as long shots, starting with WA-08, where Dave Reichert is retiring and where the GOP is putting up a very well-known politician, Dino Rossi, and where the Democrats have a first-time candidate, physician Kim Schrier:

It's still rated a toss-up by the numbers. But when voters fill out their ballots, Trump will be foremost in their minds and Schrier is going to take the seat. In Omaha (NE-02), the Republican incumbent, Don Baconis having a rougher time defending his seat from a full-fledged grassroots progressive, Kara Eastman and the race went from a toss-up last month to "leans Dem" now, largely because Eastman is campaigning on issues people are interested in (like Medicare-For-All) and Bacon is a complete Trump rubber-stamp.

With Robert Hurt retiring, Virginia's 5th district is an open seat and the DCCC had exactly zero interest in helping a very outspoken and very progressive Leslie Cockburn beat Republican Denver Riggleman, one of the GOP's most flawed candidates of the cycle. And without DCCC acknowledgement...

Democrats have been fighting to take CA-10 for many years, unsuccessfully. Josh Harder isn't any better-- to put it generously-- than any other DCCC-picked candidate for the district but this is a special year and incumbent Jeff Denham appears to be... a dead man walking:

Now I want to point out a major flaw in the kind of-- by the numbers-- prognostication FiveThirtyEight does. In CA-50, drunken crooked incumbent Duncan Hunter has been indicted on dozens of charges and Ammar Campaigns-Najjar is one of the most compelling candidates the Democrats have running for Congress anywhere. One racist at the DCCC has prevented him from being endorsed and the cockroach DCCC staffer in Orange County has been working against him, despite his victory in the primary and despite endorsements from President Obama, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris. Fuck the DCCC here. FibeThirtyEight doesn't understand how to grok the race and the most recent poll shows gigantic moment for Ammar and a 46-46% dead heat. That said, this is FiveThirtyEight's boneheaded prediction:

Will 2018 Be The Year The Democrats Finally Win CA-10?

CA-10 is Jeff Denham's Central Valley district that should have been won by the Democrats by now. It's a white minority district (46%) that stretches from Tracy, Manteca, Ripon and Riverbank in the north down through Modesto and Patterson to Turlock. Obama won it both times and in 2016 Hillary beat Trump 48.5% to 45.5%. The PVI went from R1 to EVEN. The DCCC has run a series of weak congressional candidates, which is how Denham has hung on. They seem determined to do it again, this time with New Dem Josh Harder. An old pal from the 2006 Jerry McNerney race, A.J. Carrillo, has taken a look at the race after T.J. Cox and Dotty Nygard dropped out in the last few weeks. His report:

With Virginia Madueño Have The Dems Finally The Right Candidate To Take On Jeff Denham?
-by A.J. Carrillo

California’s 10th district has been the Democratic Party’s great white whale, with Trump-worshiping Republican Congressman Jeff Denham continually outperforming the district’s Democratic lean. In 2018 though, Denham may finally have met his match as there is a lot of energy and a lot of candidates running, but in this moment one stands above the rest. Inspired by the #MeToo movement, congressional sexual harassment scandals, and Trump’s abhorrent behavior towards women, former Riverbank Mayor and Governor Brown appointee, Virginia Madueño looks to provide the strongest matchup against Denham.

Virginia is a life-long resident of the district and is the daughter of farm-worker parents who went on to become members of the Teamsters union. As a small-business owner herself, Virginia has been a champion and strong voice for local businesses and as Riverbank Mayor brought business, community organizations and the US Army together to convert an old ammunition plant into a jobs hub, helping small businesses open doors and bringing more jobs to the region. She now serves as appointee of Governor Brown’s to the California Boating and Waterways Commission, where she continues her advocacy for the San Joaquin Valley.

While the western part of the 10th District has a growing portion of Bay Area commuters, the district still shares has many of the problems of the greater Valley region like lagging in employment growth and poor public health statistics. In a district that faces these issues, Denham has consistently sided with the Trump administration over his district. For example 49% of the district’s children rely on CHIP for health insurance, but instead of making CHIP funding a priority, Jeff Denham rushed to pass the GOP tax scam.

Virginia has been hammering Denham for his unwavering devotion to Trump, so when she pointed out that Denham voted to line his own pockets with a permanent tax cut, he lashed out at her on Twitter.

It turns out that Virginia’s campaign underestimated how much Denham stood gain-- a report revealed that Denham stands to pocket over $100,000/year from the Trump tax cuts. With his unfailing support of Trump’s unpopular agenda it’s no wonder Denham refuses to host town halls and generally hides from his constituents. He was MIA at this past weekend’s March for Our Lives.

As Virginia says on her website:

“Time after time our Congressman Jeff Denham has shown us that he is not our advocate, not our neighbor and not our ally, as he has become a rubber stamp putting the interest of his Republican congressional allies over the families of our district.”

As a survivor of a serious childhood illness due to the generosity of a physician, Virginia knows the importance of healthcare access and that is why she supports Medicare-for-All. She vows to stand up for her district and fight the Trump agenda that has targeted Californians. While Denham voted to index the estate tax to inflation, Virginia pledges to raise the Federal minimum wage from its woeful $7.25/hour and index future increases to inflation.

Is His Serial Dishonesty Finally Catching Up With Central Valley Republican Jeff Denham?

We haven't spent enough time talking about CA-10, an important district that the DCCC has failed over and over again to rescue from Republican hands. A Central Valley district primarily in Stanislaus County, with a substantial part of San Joaquin as well, the district is represented by a knee-jerk Republican backbencher, Jeff Denham, an odd fit in a minority majority district. CA-10, just east of San Jose, gave Obama wins both times he ran and, albeit by a smaller margin, went for Hillary over Trump last year, 48.5% to 45.5%. The biggest towns in the district are Modesto, Manteca, Tracy, Riverbank and Turlock.

The DCCC has been running candidates who look "good" on paper-- at least in DC-- but who have been unable to dislodge Denham. The DCCC are trying to bum rush some their kind of guy in as the candidate-- Josh Harder, a wealthy venture capitalist and the local activists are lining up behind Tracy nurse and former Riverbank City Council member Dotty Nygard. Lisa Battista (no issues page on her website), David Byttow (no website) and Mateo Morelos Bedolla (website has expired) have declared their candidacies and there has been talk that the last 2 Denham opponents, Michael Eggman (2014 and 2016) and Jose Hernandez (2012) are considering rematches. Also former Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueño may be planning on jumping in.

One reason 2018 may be Denham's Waterloo is his vote to repeal Obamacare and replace it with TrumpCare, a bill that would deprive 111,711 people in CA-10 of health insurance, over double the national average. But it wasn't just that Denham voted in lockstep with Ryan-- he always does-- but that he promised his constituents that he wouldn't. Early last March at a meeting with constituents Denham explicitly "agreed to not repeal the Affordable Care Act without a replacement that would protect people with pre-existing conditions, as well as allow people to stay on their parent's health insurance until the age of 26."

Two months later, when Denham flew back to the district, residents were angry that he had betrayed them and gone back on his word. His town hall meeting in Riverbank went badly.

"You voted against me," said one woman who said she depends on Medi-Cal for her healthcare.

"I voted for something that I thought would help my district," he said.

Denham had previously said that he would vote against the bill, but ended up voting for it, along with the rest of California's House Republicans.

He lied to his constituents about what TrumpCare would and wouldn't do but when he was cornered about his misleading assertions-- like a bogus claim that people would get cheaper pharmaceuticals-- he hemmed and hawed and claimed there will be "future amendments."

This truck can start rolling again the day Dotty Nygard becomes the Democratic nominee

Blue America has gone up against Denham once before. Two summers ago we ran a moving billboard campaign in two Central Valley congressional districts, CA-10 and CA-16, the former Denham's and the latter represented by Blue Dog Jim Costa. Both were enthusiastic supporters of the TPP reactionary trade agenda and both are mighty lucky that Congress has decided to write the laws in such a way that bribery in the form of "campaign contributions" is not considered bribery by the criminal justice system, a whole other deception worth taking time to think about. Denham was well aware that his Democratic-leaning district would not put up with a $700 million Medicare ripoff to grease the skids of the TPP, so he tried to disguise his support.

Modesto Bee reporter Nan Austin asked Denham's office for a comment on the rather blunt and unambiguous accusations against him that are being driven up and down CA-10 and into almost every city and town Denham represents. "Congressman Jeff Denham just voted to cut your mom’s Medicare by $700 million to finance a trade agenda that sends your job to China" was not what Denham wanted voters thinking about when they sat down to decide between him and Democrat Michael Eggman.

The Denham camp called the signs "disingenuous and misleading."

"Congressman Denham supported legislation to eliminate the Medicare cuts that were contained in the Senate version of TPA, and he supported legislation to increase trade and bring jobs to the Central Valley. This a disingenuous and misleading line of attack," said Denham Press Secretary Jordan Langdon, in response to a Bee inquiry.

Blue America, however, stood behind the Blue America Pac political ads, saying the message referred to an earlier vote that included the Medicare cut. Denham voted against that portion of what was then a two-part package, but the group called that a slight of hand.

"Costa voted for both halves. Denham voted for one half. But the clear intent of the House Republicans was to pass both halves," said a Blue America spokesman who would give only the pen name Gaius Publius. "Any vote for any piece was a vote for the whole package to succeed," he said in a phone interview Tuesday.

GOP Dysfunction And Failure Are Attracting Quality Candidates To Congressional Races

Back in February 34% of Americans were very confident that Ryan's plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act would make healthcare better. Does that sound like a small number of people? Since then, people have had a chance to see Ryan's concrete plans (TrumpCare) and according to the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll that number has shrunk... to 8%. And a Washington Post poll shows something even more bizarre, namely that large numbers of Trump voters reject the actual core ideas around which the Republican health plan is premised. For example, a majority of these Trump voters-- just like normal people-- favor a national ban on hiking premiums on preexisting conditions. Turning this into a potentially even more toxic brew is the revelation that most voters in key swing states which Trump carried--Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania-- now finally understand that Trump is a liar. Just over half of the Republicans in those states say he exaggerates the truth, while close to 70% of Democrats say he intentionally lies. Luckily for Señor Trumpanzee, most voters (84%) operate from an assumption that all Republican politicians lie and that he's isn't special in that way.

How many 2018 Republican-held House seats does this imperil? That same Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that dissatisfaction with congressional Republicans in general and with Paul Ryan in particular is growing exponentially. Only 22% of voters now see Paul Ryan positively-- and nearly double that number have a negative impression of him. In February there was just a 1% gap between those who liked him and those who didn't. The gap is now 18%-- and not in Ryan's favor. Only one in five Americans think Congress-- completely controlled by the Republican Party-- is doing a satisfactory job.

Just in the last two days, more grassroots (as opposed to DCCC-imposed) Democratic congressional candidates have come on the radar. A progressive emergency room nurse, activist and former Riverbank city councilwoman, Dotty Nygard, tossed her hat into the ring for the CA-10 seat held by confused Republican Jeff Denham. The Central Valley district, which stretches from Tracy, Manteca and Riverbank in the north through Modesto and down to Turlock and Newman in the south, saw Obama win twice and Hillary beat Trump 48.5% to 45.5% while the DCCC screwed up the congressional races in this white minority district again and again and again. In her Facebook statement she said that "an elected representative should embody the ideals, strengths, and spirit of the people they represent. Equally important, they must understand the concerns and struggles we face as individuals and as a community. An elected official must show leadership and dedication to their constituents, rather than sacrifice our future to the highest bidder. Here's my pledge to you: I will bring back the caring, compassion, and community that is often lost in the mundane, indifferent, business-as-usual culture in Washington and our Political establishment. I am running for congress to say enough is enough on your behalf!"


NO MORE playing politics with our Healthcare,


NO MORE playing politics with our natural resources,


NO MORE playing politics with our children's education or our ability to earn a living wage and support our families.

"We deserve better! We need to preserve and protect the nation's leading agricultural industry here within our rich Central Valley soils. The future sustainability of our region hangs in the balance, and will be decided at the voting booth in 2018. We must embrace our diversity and respect the tradition of immigration at the core of our Nation's heritage. I will stand FOR you, and I will march WITH you! Our needs and values should NOT be lost in the political process but our voices should be heard THROUGH it."

Another crucial Central Valley race is starting to take shape due south of CA-10, down the 99 Freeway past Merced and Madera, you get to Fresno and Visalia, the two main cities in CA-22, Devin Nunes' district. The DCCC has never challenged Nunes but he's made such a spectacle of himself over Putin-Gate that interest in ending his career in Congress is now sky-high. Yesterday the first candidate to jump into the race was Fresno County prosecutor Andrew Janz, a 33 year old who told the Fresno Bee that he's "not a politician; I’ve never considered running for Congress until recently.

Republicans hold a significant voter registration advantage in the district-- 42.8 percent of voters identify themselves as Republicans, compared to 32.8 percent Democrats. But a significant proportion of the voters-- more than 19 percent-- listed no party preference on their registration as of February.

Janz said he’s undaunted and believes there may be some momentum building toward the 2018 election because of Trump’s volatile, confrontational style and proposals over health care and taxes. “I feel like I have a connection with the district,” he said. “I believe I share the values of a lot of the people in the district.”

While he’s a lifelong Democrat, “I’m not the type of person who votes the party line,” Janz said. “I’m willing to listen to anyone… I’m going to focus on building a coalition of progressives, moderates and people who share the values of the area.”

And Sunday, on the other side of the country, in western North Carolina, a potential Democratic superstar, Matt Coffay, announced his candidacy at a healthcare-focused town hall event in Waynesville. Matt, a leader of Our Revolution in North Carolina is taking on Freedom Caucus head man Mark Meadows in NC-11, a viciously gerrymandered district that is a prime example of what corrupted overly partisan legislators can do to undermine democracy. The district went for Romney 60.4-39.6% and then for Trump 63.2-34.0%. It was Trump's strongest score in the state. Coffay appears undaunted by the challenge.


At the event Sunday he told the crowd of several hundred that "America is at a crossroads. Our Republic is eroding into a country of partisan bickering and vast income inequality, with millions of hardworking people left behind by a changing economy. We need to sustain the activist energy that's emerged in Western North Carolina and carry it all the way through midterm elections. We’re going to build the biggest grassroots movement that the 11th District has ever seen, and that’s why we’re starting the campaign right now... I’m going to stand up to the health insurance industry and the pharmaceutical industry. I’m going to stand up and say that it’s time we raised the minimum to a living wage of $15 an hour, and that we need tuition free public college. We need infrastructure investment here in Western North Carolina, and we need the jobs that infrastructure investment will bring. With your help, we’re going to raise the money that we need, and we’re going to go all the way to Washington, D.C., to change the face of American politics."

If The DCCC Manages To Lose CA-10 Again, Should That Trigger Capital Punishment For The Incompetent Committee?

A staffer at the DCCC called me the other day out of the blue-- me... who usually has some pretty unkind words for the committee-- and asked me if I knew anyone who wanted to run against Jeff Denham in CA-10, a district at the northern end of the Central Valley that includes Modesto, Turlock, Manteca, Ripon and Tracy. It's a nice blue district east of San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose. Obama beat McCain there 50-48% and beat Romney 51-47%. Even Hillary won, albeit without a majority: 48.5% to 45.5%. The district is just 45% white but the DCCC has consistently managed to blow winning the district. The congressman is Jeff Denham, a Republican backbencher with nothing to recommend him and nothing to keep him in office other than sheer and determined DCCC incompetence.

Even as Trump was losing to Hillary Denham was being reelected against the DCCC's uninspiring candidate, Michael Eggman, a bee rancher. Denham won 124,671 (51.7%) to 116,470 (48.3%). In 2014 Denham had beaten Eggman 56-44% and two years earlier had beaten astronaut Jose Hernandez 53-47%. In 2016 Denham spent $4,174,467 to Engman's $1,551,905. Ryan's Congressional Leadership Fund kicked in $3,305,985 to help Denham and that was countered by $3,781,667 from the DCCC and another $1,019,837 from Pelosi's House Majority PAC. The only thing that could have made Eggman's dreary and pointless campaign any worse would have been the participation of EMILY's List. It was a standard variety DCCC contentless shit-show with nothing going for it except the hope that Hillary's margin would be big enough to pull their small candidate-with-nothing-to-offer to victory.

The DCCC has identified CA-10 as a target district. But they have no candidate yet. After two runs the name Eggman is pretty familiar and some are arguing for his sister, Susan Talamantes Eggman, an Assemblywoman who doesn't live in the district but was born and raised in Turlock and represents the sliver of CA-10 around Tracy. She's openly gay and she's part Latino. I don't know what's spooking Denham but Monday night at a raucous downhill meeting in tiny, off-the-beaten track and overwhelmingly white Denair, Denham was booed and heckled so much that he claimed he believes in Climate Change and announced that "he wouldn't support his party's healthcare legislation unless it left significant parts of Obamacare intact." He doesn't want any of Trump's rampaging toxicity to rub off on him.

"I've expressed to leadership that I'm a 'no' on the healthcare vote until it is responsive to my community," he said during a town hall meeting with hundreds of voters in his district.

"There are things in the Affordable Care Act we expect to stay," Denham added, such as coverage for pre-existing conditions and expanded Medicaid coverage.

How many dozen times did Denham vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act? And... when the DCCC announces their candidate, will it make Denham breath easier-- or make him denounce Trump at every opportunity?

Why Grassroots Democratic Activists Have Had It With The DCCC

Anger at the DCCC is spreading. Well, anger at the DCCC has been huge for over a decade; that it's being talked about more openly and more aggressively at the grassroots level is what's different. Chris Van Hollen and Steve Israel lost dozens and dozens of Democratic House seats (incumbents) and ruined the chances of even more Democratic challengers trying to beat Republicans. Their DCCC organization is riven with self-serving, careerism and corruption and, some would say, even worse: incompetence. John Ellis isn't a Beltway hack. He lives in California's Central Valley and writes about politics for the Fresno Bee. Over the weekend he focused on how Democrats in the Central Valley feel about the DCCC trying to run their party. The story could be written about anyplace in the country. Contempt for the DCCC is nearly universal. Democrats in the Central Valley-- and everywhere else-- all feel the DCCC "is more a hindrance than a help in winning local elections." When you read this, keep in mind that Obama won-- by increasing margins-- his Central Valley elections while the DCCC was losing (all) theirs:

• CA 21- Obama over McCain 52-46%, Obama over Romney 55-44%
• CA 10- Obama over McCain 50-48%, Obama over Romney 51-47%

The DCCC, local Democrats say, recruits congressional candidates with little local input. It imposes out-of-state staffers on these candidates, many of whom never have run a campaign in the Valley and instead rely on their knowledge from working other races-- an approach that doesn’t work here. Worse, local Democrats say, those staffers don’t want local experience on how to run an effective campaign.


Much of the anger and frustration centers on the 21st Congressional District, where Hanford Republican David Valadao has trounced two straight Democratic Party challengers, even though Democrats have a commanding 17 percentage point lead in voter registration over the rival GOP. To a lesser extent, it is also the case in the 10th Congressional District, which is represented by Turlock Republican Jeff Denham. In that district, Republicans hold a slim registration advantage.

“There’s a frustration with the DCCC deciding what the rules are,” says Doug Kessler, Region 8 director for the state Democratic Party, an area that covers the Valley. “We want some say who a candidate is, and more importantly, have people who respect and understand the Valley and do not dictate to us.”


Defenders of the DCCC say the goal for the national organization is the same as local Democrats-- to win [which is an interesting argument since they never win, only lose]. Whatever the DCCC does, they say, is done with an eye toward victory.


In a short statement, the DCCC said pretty much the same thing.

“The Central Valley deserves a representative that will stand up for them in Washington, unlike David Valadao,” spokeswoman Barb Solish said. “We are confident that a strong Democrat can and will win this seat.”

Local Democrats, however, aren’t convinced.




Last year, Valley native Amanda Renteria returned home from Washington, D.C., with a sterling résumé and a mission to unseat Valadao. She raised more than $1.7 million. She lost in a landslide.

Renteria was well liked locally, and there is broad agreement that she worked hard.

But some local Democrats say she was handcuffed by the DCCC.


Her first campaign manager came from Boston with previous political experience that included a stint as campaign manager for Boston Mayor Thomas Menino as well as time working for John Edwards’ presidential campaign and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill’s campaign. After the primary election, she left and was replaced by someone from the Los Angeles area.

Victor Moheno, a Visalia attorney and prominent Valley Democrat, liked Renteria and thought she had promise. He recalled the start of the campaign, when he and other local Democrats recommended a kickoff event that would identify local leaders in the district’s major towns, and then send Renteria on a campaign kickoff caravan across the district. It would, Moheno said, give the campaign a grassroots feel.

The suggestion fell on deaf ears and went nowhere.

Moheno said the second campaign manager was Hispanic like Renteria and a majority of the 21st District, but he was from Los Angeles.

“There’s an urban-rural distinction among Latinos that is dramatic,” Moheno said. “It ain’t the same. He didn’t run a Valley campaign. Sadly, those are the pros. They get paid a lot of money, but they don’t listen to people.”

Valadao ended up beating Renteria by the same 15-percentage point margin as his 2012 win over Fresno Democrat John Hernandez, who ran a campaign on a shoestring budget and had nearly no DCCC support.

“Unfortunately, I think it’s the culture of the Democratic Party hierarchy,” Moheno says of the tendency toward top-down micromanaging, be it from Sacramento or Washington.

After the loss, Democrats chalked it up-- at least partly-- to low turnout and a bad overall showing nationally by Democrats. They then looked to 2016, a presidential election year with guaranteed higher turnout, and said they would do better in their quest to knock off Valadao.


But this year-- a key time leading up to the 2016 election when candidates decide to run and start raising money and earning endorsements-- has been a disaster for Democrats.

Kessler recalls a Region 8 Democratic Party meeting in Visalia this past summer, when the DCCC was invited. The organization ended up attending via telephone-- and got an earful. The message to the DCCC: Why don’t you care about the Valley?

Holly Andradé Blair, executive board representative for the Kings County Democratic Central Committee, wonders if the DCCC does care.

“I’m proud to come from Kings County and proud to be from the Valley,” she says. “I enjoy living here, and when outsiders, particularly the DCCC-- they’re clear across the country-- look at this area, it’s an afterthought. It gets to me. We’re not an afterthought.”

Then, Fowler Mayor Pro Tem Daniel Parra was the only Democratic challenger to Valadao.

He entered the race in mid-April but has been unable to raise money. As of Sept. 30, he had raised less than $40,000 and has a little more than $10,000 in his campaign account.

The DCCC wasn’t impressed and began looking for another candidate, a move that upset some local Democrats.

In early September, word leaked that Tulare County native Connie Perez was being courted by the DCCC. In mid-October she announced her run using a slick campaign video. Less than a month later, she was out.

For some Democrats, she couldn’t be gone soon enough. Perez was a Tulare County native but was living in Pasadena while she worked as a partner at the Bakersfield-based Brown Armstrong Accountancy Corp. It also seemed she was hand-picked and groomed by the DCCC. Her campaign announcement came from a prominent Democratic communications firm in Los Angeles.

“What’s important about representation is we pick somebody we want to represent us, not some Democrats in Washington, D.C., or in Sacramento,” Blair said. “I don’t want somebody from outside picking my candidate for me. I’m perfectly capable of choosing my own candidate. Even if that candidate loses, it’s my choice.”

But it was no picnic for Perez, some supporters say.

She was being micromanaged by the DCCC, they contend. The organization designed her campaign and demanded she use their vendors. That means, for instance, that well-known Valley pollster Jim Moore was out, even though he knows the region. The DCCC would withhold money unless the candidate played by its rules, Perez supporters say.

A short time later, Bakersfield City School District Trustee Andrae Gonzales said he was exploring a run. A week later, he decided against it.

Now, the name of Bakersfield attorney Emilio Huerta, son of United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta, has emerged.

The National Republican Congressional Committee-- the DCCC’s Washington, D.C., counterpart-- is watching the spectacle with glee, firing off snarky emails with each Democratic Party move in the 21st District. One sentence in a news release on Huerta’s possible candidacy starts, “After four high-profile rejections…”

By this time, local Democrats say, the DCCC shouldn’t be recruiting candidates but should instead be turning its attention to winning the election.


Moheno, the Visalia Democrat, says the locals learned what it takes to win congressional elections with Cal Dooley, a Democrat who used to hold the seat that now covers much of the same territory as Valadao’s 21st District.

Others say home-grown success goes beyond congressional wins with Dooley or Fresno Democrat Jim Costa-- it also stretches to the state Senate and Assembly, to Democrats like former state Sen. Michael Rubio and outgoing Assemblyman Henry T. Perea.

The reason those Democrats won in the Valley, they say, is they understood the need to be moderate and to win crossover support from agriculture and business. Going too far left, they say, is a death knell here, but it is often part of the DCCC playbook.

Blair, the Kings County Democrat, says being local is also important, as is visiting little towns like Stratford, Avenal and Kettleman City.

“In Kings County, Democrats here will vote for a local person every time over an outsider,” she says. “Even a Republican.”

Maybe that’s why the NRCC is hitting on Huerta not for having UFW lineage, but for living just a few miles outside the 21st District’s boundaries.

Michael Evans, chairman of the Fresno County Democratic Central Committee, says there must be an understanding that the Valley’s political landscape is not only unlike the rest of California, but also the rest of the nation. Within the Valley, Kings County is different from Fresno County. These nuanced differences make local input into campaigns vital, he says.

“If you bring someone in from Sacramento, they have maybe a little bit of understanding, but you bring someone in from D.C., they have zero understanding, so yeah, that can be very frustrating,” Evans says.

The Democrats will never win back the House-- never-- until the disastrous Rahm Emanuel/Chris Van Hollen/Steve Israel Republican-lite recruitment policy and their highhanded decision to override local Democrats are laid to rest. If the DCCC is supporting a candidate, be very wary before contributing or even voting for him or her. It's up to all of us to help defund the DCCC careerists. You can contribute to progressive candidates directly through ActBlue.




Van Hollen's strategy immediately lost 63 House seats... but he still insists on it

Jeff Denham (R-CA)-- Disingenuous And Misleading

Jeff Denham wants to cut Medicare-- but he doesn't want the voters to know that

A friend of mine, Michael Stewart Foley, had an interesting way to start the introduction to his newest book, The Rise Of Front Porch Politics In America. It sounds like he's talking about a bumper sticker, but what he's really talking about is how politicians do everything than can to hide the simple facts from the voters. Nothing is ever clear Inside the Beltway.

Maybe you have seen it on America's highways, a bumpersticker designed to prick your conscience" IF YOU'RE NOT OUTRAGED, YOU'RE NOT PAYING ATTENTION. A few years ago, that slogan most often appeared alongside an image of George W. Bush inside a circle with a line running through his face; these days, the face might be Barack Obama's. It is an amazingly versatile phrase, equally at home on bumpers sporting Tea Party or Occupy Wall Street slogans. Over the years it has been marshaled in the service of many political causes, but it originated in the 1970s and 1980s, when Americans were notably outraged about a wide range of issues.

At the risk of over-thinking mass-manufactured protest items, I begin with the bumpersticker because it expresses a very particular and personal kind of passion and anger over the state of the union. "You're not paying attention" means that you, individually, are ignoring things that should preoccupy, rankle and motivate you. The driver in front of you hopes to leave you thinking about who you are as an American, what you expect from your country and fellow citizens, and what you are prepared to do to get it. The point is to shake you from your reckless complacency.

Wednesday the U.S. Senate voted to press forward with the vile package of bills that make up the TPP. This is how the official Senate publication that makes it easy for citizens to track votes described the successful attempt to shut down the filibuster against the job-killing package:

On the Cloture Motion: Motion to Invoke Cloture on the Motion to Concur in the House Amendment to the Senate Amendment to H.R. 2146; A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to allow Federal law enforcement officers, firefighters, and air traffic controllers to make penalty-free withdrawals from governmental plans after age 50, and for other purposes.

How many people do you know who would understand that the 60 senators who voted for it were voting for the catastrophic corporate trade agenda? Don't worry; they're not supposed to be able to figure it out. It's supposed to be lost to history so the senators can be reelected when the results of their support for this tragic legislation kick in.

Blue America has been running a moving billboard campaign in two Central Valley congressional districts, CA-10 and CA-16, the former represented by Republican Jeff Denham and the latter represented by Blue Dog Jim Costa. Both are enthusiastic supporters of the reactionary trade agenda and both are mighty lucky that Congress has decided to write the laws in such a way that bribery in the form of "campaign contributions" is not considered bribery by the criminal justice system, a whole other deception worth taking time to think about.

Denham is well aware that his Democratic-leaning district would not put up with a $700 million Medicare ripoff to grease the skids of the TPP, so he tried to disguise his support. (Costa, who has no respect for the voters who have given him a comfy lifestyle, doesn't care if the voters know what he did or not.) Modesto Bee reporter Nan Austin asked Denham's office for a comment on the rather blunt and unambiguous accusations against him that are being driven up and down CA-10 and into almost every city and town Denham represents. "Congressman Jeff Denham just voted to cut your mom’s Medicare by $700 million to finance a trade agenda that sends your job to China" is not what Denham wants voters thinking about when they decide between him and Democrat Michael Eggman. But that is exactly what we want voters to be thinking about when they visit the polls next year. Austin:

The Denham camp called the signs "disingenuous and misleading."

"Congressman Denham supported legislation to eliminate the Medicare cuts that were contained in the Senate version of TPA, and he supported legislation to increase trade and bring jobs to the Central Valley. This a disingenuous and misleading line of attack," said Denham Press Secretary Jordan Langdon, in response to a Bee inquiry.

Blue America, however, stood behind the Blue America Pac political ads, saying the message referred to an earlier vote that included the Medicare cut. Denham voted against that portion of what was then a two-part package, but the group called that a slight of hand.

"Costa voted for both halves. Denham voted for one half. But the clear intent of the House Republicans was to pass both halves," said a Blue America spokesman who would give only the pen name Gaius Publius. "Any vote for any piece was a vote for the whole package to succeed," he said in a phone interview Tuesday.

If you'd like to help Blue America keep the truck rolling for Denham and Costa, here's what you can do.

Tales From California's Central Valley-- A Bipartisan Means Of Holding TPP Backers Accountable

Ever been to Turlock, Jeff Denham's hometown

Tuesday the Blue America accountability truck rolled into Modesto, the big city in Jeff Denham's Central Valley district (CA-10). Denham is one of the most vulnerable congressional Republicans, not just in California, but anywhere in the country-- and Modesto is the biggest city in the district. Obama won Modesto both times he ran. In fact, Obama won CA-10 both times, holding McCain to 48% in 2008 and Romney to 47% four years later. CA-16 is much bluer and Obama beat McCain 58-40% and then beat Romney 59-39%. Republican-voting Jim Costa is hated by local Democrats and independents and he came within inches of losing his seat in 2014, beating his GOP opponent by just a few votes after a bitterly contested recount. Having come from visits along to 99 Highway to Merced, Atwater and Livingston, the truck spent a few hours in Turlock, Denham's hometown, before heading up to Modesto. Today, he's heading down to Fresno, the center of Costa's domain.

Greg, our driver, stunned by the unprecedented attention the billboards on either side of the truck were making on people, decided to stop by the Modesto Bee and invite the reporters to take some pictures of the truck. We immediately got a response from one of the paper's top reporters, Nan Austin: "The Blue America Pac has a sign truck traveling our area criticizing Costa and Denham for voting yes on the trade bill. But the big message says they 'just voted to cut your mom's Medicare by $700 million to finance a trade agenda that sends your job to China.' The only Medicare provision I see was cut from the final bill-- what am I missing? Any comments would be welcome."

Luckily, Gaius was able to answer her questions about Costa's and Denham's votes on the complicated package of bills that made up the TPP and shed did a more than reasonable job writing it up. Take a look; it's worth the read. It's important to remember that on June 12, both conservative congressmen voted FOR giving Obama Fast Track authority to negotiate the TPP treaty without any interference from Congress. You can see their votes here. The provision that cuts Medicare by $700 million had been sent over to the House from the Senate, where it had already passed, as part of a "final deal" that could not be changed. It appeared when Denham and Costa voted that it was a take-it-or-leave-it proposition. You want the TPP... then the Medicare cuts were something you had to swallow. Although stealing $700 million from Medicare was something the Republicans were excited by, it was so unpopular among Democrats that only a small handful of the worst Blue Dogs (like Costa) and New Dems voted with the GOP and the Medicare provision was eventually cut from the final bill-- although Denham had no idea it would be cut. Costa didn't care one way or the other and he even voted Yes to the cuts explicitly in a separate vote, although Denham knew what awaited him if he stuck with the GOP on that one... and he didn't. It didn't matter. But bottom line is, any vote for Fast Track in the House before the House leaders (basically, just Boehner and McCarthy) split the vote was a vote to move the Senate package-- with the Medicare cuts-- over the finish line. The vote referenced above-- which both Costa and Denham backed and voted for-- was Boehner's attempt to see if they could pass the whole Senate package. Since the bills hadn't been split in reality (only temporarily by a leadership-backed Rule), any Yes was a yes to get the Senate combo package that included the $700 million in Medicare cuts to Obama's desk intact. It wasn't until 6 days later, on June 18, that there was a real split of the bills and therefor possible to back the TPP without voting for Medicare cuts. It didn't matter to Costa one way or the other, but Denham knows his district well enough to have been looking for cover. But both were already on the record-- in the Congressional Record-- for having voted for the package.

Remember, the only real bill before the House until June 18 was the combined Senate bill with Medicare cuts in it. Costa and Denham supported it and worked for its passage. Any attempt to move that, in whole or in parts, to Obama's desk was an attempt to pass those dreadful cuts. It wasn't until the 18th, a week later, that the two bills, TAA and TPA, were formally split apart. Prior to that, a vote for any part of the Senate package bill was a vote to advance the whole package (with those inconvenient Medicare cuts the GOP forced into the legislation but don't want to take "credit" for).

By the way, the truck was paid for by contributions to the Blue America PAC. Feel free to contribute whatever you'd like-- and we'll keep the truck on the road longer-- or make one for backstabbing New Dems Ami Bera (CA) or Kathleen Rice (NY).

Help Us Hold Congressional TPP Supporters Accountable Inside Their Own Districts

Welcome to Modesto

The first Blue America truck of 2015 is on the road. Our driver is using the Golden State Highway (Route 99) as the backbone of a trip up and down two Central Valley districts-- CA-10, represented by Republican Jeff Denham, and CA-16, represented by Blue Dog Jim Costa. He drives up and down the 99 from the Fresno-Yosemite Airport in Costa's district to Manteca in Denham's district, stopping in every big and medium-sized town in between: Fresno itself, of course, plus Madera, Chowchilla, Merced, Delhi, Turlock, Ceres, Bystrom, Modesto, Salida and Manteca.

The truck, pictured above and below, as it arrived on Sunday night, has the same message for voters in both districts-- on one side "Congressman Jim Costa just voted to cut your mom's Medicare by $700 million to finance a trade agenda that sends your job to China," on the other side "Congressman Jeff Denham just voted to cut your mom's Medicare by $700 million to finance a trade agenda that sends your job to China." Pretty incendiary, but it's exactly what the two conservatives did in the TPP votes.

We'd like to keep the truck visiting every nook and cranny in the two districts all summer. And we'd like to send more trucks to more districts all over the country. We need help from like-minded progressives if we're going to pull that off. Our Independent Expenditure Committee ActBlue page uses all the contributions that come in for activities like the truck. Anything you feel like donating would be greatly appreciated-- and well-used.

Denham and Costa both deserve to lose their seats for betraying the working families of the hard-pressed Central Valley. I think running these two out of the House would send a powerful message to other Members who talk out of both sides of their mouths. It's great seeing labor unions spending money on advertising against reactionary New Dems Ami Bera (Sacramento suburbs) and Kathleen Rice (Nassau County, NY), and we want to expand the accountability to make our elected representatives think twice about stabbing their own constituents in the back every time Wall Street and Big Business wiggle a couple of dollars under their noses. If we don't do it, who will? Please contribute here or, if you'd rather, send a check or money order to Blue America, P.O. Box 27201, Los Angeles, CA 90027.

UPDATE: Blue America Truck Brings Some Excitement To Modesto

Greg, the Blue America driver, had a very full day today, visiting Merced, Atwater, Livingston, Turlock, Modesto and Salida. "I drove right up to Congressman Denham's office and took my first pic of the day," he wrote this morning. "When I got to Modesto, I stopped in front of the newspaper building and took a photo there. I went upstairs to the reporters section and told them to look outside their window. When they did, they grabbed their cameras and came out to photograph the truck.... I've never gotten so much attention to the ad before. Everyone is pissed about this TPP issue."

Blue America Billboard Trucks Spending July In Jeff Denham's And Jim Costa's Central Valley Districts

Route 99, the Golden State Highway, splits off from the 5 Freeway just south of Bakersfield in southern California and stretches north to include a straight path through the Central Valley-- including all of CA-16 and all of CA-10, way into the north where it merges with the 5 again at Red Bluff. Even though the 99 goes through Elk Grove in Ami Bera's district south and east of Sacramento, Blue America is concentrating on just two districts-- and two odious congressmen-- with our billboard truck, CA-10 and CA-16. Both are blue districts that voted for Obama both times. CA-10 is represented by conservative Republican Jeff Denham and CA-16 is represented by conservative Blue Dog Jim Costa. Both men are in the pocket of Wall Street and Big Business special interests and both are backing trade policies that steal hundreds of millions of dollars from Medicare to grease the skids for the job-destroying TPP.

We don't think the voters in the Central Valley know what these two duplicitous congressmen are up to. And we're using our movable billboards (above and below) to make sure some of them find out. The truck will be spending July traveling up and down the Golden Gate Highway between Fresno-Yosemite International Airport and Manteca, with lots of driving around Fresno, Madera, Chowchilla, Merced, Delhi, Turlock, Ceres, Bystrom, Modesto, Salida and Manteca. July should be a fiery month in the Central Valley.

Now, moving billboards aren't the only way Blue America is going after these bastards. We don't want to signal all of our intentions but... I just heard from the L.A. Times that we're the first organization or campaign to start advertising with them for the 2016 cycle. Wait till you see the striking ads! If you'd like to help us with these endeavors, we have an Independent Action Committee and it has its own ActBlue page... and we can only do these actions with help from like-minded supporters. Please give what you can here. It means more trucks, more districts, and more organizing against reactionaries and their Wall Street agenda.