Nanette Barragán's Battle Against The Corrupt Political Machine Gets A Huge, Unexpected Boost

Nanette Barragán

Janice Hahn sees herself as a future governor and realized Congress isn't the stepping stone taking her in that direction. So she's leaving the safe deep, deep blue 44th congressional district seat-- Obama won it with 85% against Romney and it is likely to be even more Democratic in November-- for a seat on the L.A. County Board of Supervisors. Vaguely liberal, Hahn isn't really about values or even issues as much as she is about Hahn. As part of her unending lust for higher office she made a deal to back Sacramento's most corrupt Democrat, Isadore Hall, for the congressional seat she's leaving in return for Hall's help with black voters in the supervisorial campaign. Who gets hurt in the deal? The people, 70% of whom are Hispanic, who live in the towns and neighborhoods in CA-44: Willowbrook, Compton, Rancho Dominguez, South Gate, Lynwood, Carson, Wilmington and San Pedro, and are treated like props in the careerist machinations of two self-serving political strivers.

Virtually every political hack in the state has endorsed Hall... he may be corrupt and conservative but he's the insider candidate all the other careerists want to see move up the ladder. Yesterday, though, the Los Angeles political landscape was jolted when the L.A. Times suddenly-- and very prominently-- endorsed Nanette Barragán, the progressive reformer in the race. Choosing not to accuse Hall of any criminal behavior or even corruption in general, the editors of The Times instead wrote that "only Barragán has demonstrated the integrity, courage and commitment to the environment that this industrial district needs. Voters should choose her on June 7."

Barragán has an up-from-the-bootstraps story that certainly resonates in this district: from the hardscrabble streets of Carson to the halls of UCLA and USC law school, to a White House internship and a job at one of Los Angeles' top law firms, Latham & Watkins. Her accomplishments were earned, not bestowed. Even her political opponents concede that her intellect and policy chops are impressive. And her legislative priorities-- the environment, education and jobs-- are clear.

Barragán has demonstrated that she can get things done in a short time. In her less than two-year career on the Hermosa Beach City Council, she led efforts to block oil drilling in the small city and pushed through a citywide plastic bag ban. Her record has won her the support of two powerful environmental advocacy groups, the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters.

Practically everyone else in the state's Democratic political establishment, however, is backing Hall. This is not because he's a demonstrably better candidate, but because of his longevity in politics. Hall has held elected office for 15 years, climbing from the Compton school board and city council to the state Legislature. That might mean something to party operatives, but voters should ask what more he has done than win elections.

The answer is in Hall's record as a state legislator, particularly his years as one of the self-styled “moderate Democrats” in the Assembly who consistently opposed crucial climate change policy and tougher gun laws. For example, Hall did not join his colleagues in calling on the federal government to halt offshore drilling leases, or vote for a statewide ban on plastic bags, or a moratorium on fracking. His consistency was rewarded by the oil lobby, and he is one of the top recipients of donations from oil interests. Other big donors to his campaigns are casinos and gambling interests, tobacco companies and the alcohol lobby.

If Hall's votes were guided by a deep-rooted political conviction, that would be one thing. But he took an unexplained left turn after moving to the state Senate in December 2014. There he supported issues he once opposed, notably tougher gun laws and last year's landmark climate change bill, SB 350. Perhaps it's an intellectual evolution by Hall, but it raises questions about what his real priorities are.

By comparison, the biggest knock on Barragán is that she recently lived in Hermosa Beach, which is outside the 44th district. Federal law doesn't require members of the House to live in their districts; even so, Barragán has moved her residence to San Pedro, at the southern end of the district. More important to voters, she has historic ties to the district where she was born and raised, and where her family still calls home. Barragán does have challenges she must overcome if elected. On the Hermosa Beach City Council she displayed sharp elbows and an impatience that won't serve her well on Capitol Hill. But those are minor flaws compared with the major red flags of her main opponent.

I might add that although Hall was endorsed by a garbage-bagful of career politicians, Nanette has been endorsed by Blue America, DFA, PDA, countless Latino groups and women's groups and by a handful of standout members of Congress who Hahn wasn't able to manipulate, namely Raul Grijalva and neighboring congressmembers Linda Sánchez, Grace Napolitano and Lucille Roybal-Allard, as well as one of the icons of the Southern California environmental movement, L.A. Councilman Paul Koretz. RL Miller, who heads California's most cutting edge environmental group, Climate Hawks Vote, endorsed Nanette and told us last night that "This is the most important Congressional primary in California because the contrast between the two candidates is so stark. Nanette fights for clean air, clean water, and a brighter future for the working class families of her district. Her opponent represents the worst aspects of machine politics, funded by Big Oil, Big Tobacco, Big Sugar, gambling, and billboard blight." That about sums it up alright. Please consider contributing to the Barragán campaign at the thermometer below:

The Race Is On For Janice Hahn's Congressional Seat

Janice Hahn

As we predicted a couple months ago, progressive L.A. congresswoman, Janice Hahn, will not be running for reelection in 2016 but will run for the open seat on the L.A. County Board of Supervisors, a far more powerful position. She told the L.A. Times she would be able to get a lot more done on the Board of Supervisors than in Congress. "The problem is, Washington is broken. It's increasingly mired in political gridlock, and there's virtually zero cooperation between the two parties. That's not the kind of government I grew up with... I can do more for the Los Angeles region on the Board of Supervisors."

The California Democratic Establishment is maneuvering to make conservative, lobbyist-controlled Isadore Hall's nomination a fait accompli. And he's already tossed his hat into the ring, even though he just won his state Senate seat in a special election in November. All the worst elements of Southern California Democratic politics are lining up behind Hall, an African American career politician from Compton, despite his dreadful record in the Assembly-- and despite CA-44 having a 70.5% Latino population. Hahn, who is counting on Hall to help her win black votes in her supervisorial contest, endorsed Hall for her seat today. So far no well-known Latino candidates have come forward but Hispanic politicians must be wondering how serious Eric Bauman's Democratic Party Machine takes them if they're not going to help them with a 70% Hispanic district! The only other plausible candidate so far is City Councilman, Joe Buscaino, who presents San Pedro, the part of CA-44 with the most voters. Buscaino maybe be better than Hall but he hasn't exactly been a progressive icon that a D+32 district deserves. Obama won the district against Romney 155,459 (85%) to 24,995 (14%).

“He’s just taking a look at it,” Buscaino aide Branimir Kvartuc said Wednesday. “He’s been approached by supporters and by people who told him he should at least take a look at it.”

Weighing heavily as factors, Kvartuc said, are Buscaino’s young family and his work in the 15th Council District.

“He might be more serious if his kids weren’t as young, that’s probably going to be the deciding factor,” Kvartuc said. “It really comes down to a family decision and he’s doing so much work now in the 15th District that he doesn’t want to leave that early. That’s hugely important to him.”

His wife, Geralyn, is a Los Angeles Unified School District teacher.

But for now, Kvartuc said, “He’s going to keep his name in the hat.”

Buscaino replaced Hahn on the City Council when she was elected to finish out U.S. Rep. Jane Harman’s term.

Hahn was elected to the 36th Congressional District in July 2011 and then decided to run in the newly redrawn 44th District in 2012 when the 36th District was dismantled.

She was most recently re-elected in November 2014.

Buscaino, a former Los Angeles police officer, was a familiar face in the Harbor Area when he decided to run for the 15th District seat being vacated by Hahn. He was elected to fill out her term in January 2012 and was re-elected on March 5, 2013, to a full four-year term with 83.3 percent of the vote.

Because his term doesn’t end until 2017, he would be able to remain on the council during a run for the House next year.

Aside from San Pedro, CA-44 includes the communities of Carson, Compton, Willowbrook, Rancho Dominguez, South Gate, Lynwood, Downey, Bell, Vernon and Huntington Park. So who votes in CA-44? Here's a look by ethnic group:

• Latino- 151,014
• African-American- 85,166
• Asian (primarily Filipino)- 15,834
• Jewish- 1,290
• East Indian- 302
• Armenian- 146
• Persian- 109

Who's For Us-- Who's Against Us... The Battle Inside The Democratic Caucus Over Social Security

Yesterday it was with regret, but not surprise, when we recounted newly elected Democratic hack Janice Hahn's pathetic response to a simple question about protecting Social Security and Medicare. This would have once have been a softball question and an opportunity for a Democratic politician to assure seniors and working families that they're in good hands with the Democrats. Instead, Hahn-- who won her tough primary because she was heavily backed by self-serving but extremely short-sited unions-- used the opportunity to appeal to conservatives:

"Americans want us to get together and come up with common sense solutions... If compromises need to be made, I will certainly follow the lead of the President."

Not a good first impression. This will haunt her forever. Progressives have a very different approach. The biggest Democratic Party congressional caucus in the House is the Progressive Caucus, led by Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Keith Ellison (D-MN). Here's the letter they sent to Nancy Pelosi this week:

We write in strong agreement with your unwavering defense of the Democratic programs that form the bedrock of America’s middle and working classes, and which are overwhelmingly popular.

On July 7, you made very clear that “We are not going to balance the budget on the backs of America’s seniors, women and people with disabilities” and that “we do not support cuts in benefits” for vital safety-net programs. We agree completely.

Especially in these tough economic times, we should not be cutting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits that millions of our constituents paid into and depend on. Such benefit cuts should be off the table in current debt discussions.

Our Republican colleagues should be embarrassed by their insistence that unless Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits are cut, the nation will default on its debts. Middle-class families have sacrificed enough, and a deal that pushes the American Dream further out of reach, in order to pay for extending tax breaks for the rich and corporations, is simply unacceptable.

We are united as Democrats in saying that it’s time to stand up to the Republican hostage-taking. We will not be forced to vote for a “final agreement” that we do not agree to-- and that the American people do not agree to.

We stand united with you in insisting that benefit cuts for working families, our seniors, children, and people with disabilities must be off the table, and we stand united with you in fighting for millions of Americans who need Democrats to be firmly on their side.

Obama (and Hahn) are more than ready to “balance the budget on the backs of America’s seniors, women and people with disabilities” and "support cuts in benefits” for vital safety-net programs. It's what separates progressives from conservatives inside the Democratic Party and it's why it's so important to pay attention to primaries. Do you think Debra Bowen or Marcy Winograd would be talking about sacrificing seniors and vulnerable families to corporate avarice? And on the first day after election? It's why Blue America urged voters in CA-36 to turn out for Bowen and why we regretted Winograd's willingness to fall into the trap set for her by sleazy Hahn operative Joe Trippi to split the progressive vote and let Hahn slip in as the Democratic nominee so that the contest would be between a conservative and a reactionary rather than between a progressive and a conservative. There are races for Congress just like this shaping up all over America. Aside from our normal candidates page, we have a page dedicated to progressives facing conservative Democrats, Send the Democrats A Message. Right now, our candidates on that page, Wenona Baldenegro (D-AZ) and Mazie Hirono (D-HI) are both proven progressives who are battling two former House members with egregiously right-wing records, respectively Ann Kirkpatrick and Ed Case, two of the worst Members of Congress in our lifetimes, each of whom made a habit of reflexively voting with the GOP at every opportunity.

That letter Grijalva and Ellison sent Pelosi already has over 60 co-signers, Members willing to stand up to the Conservative Consensus that has an iron grip on power Inside-the-Beltway and certainly includes not just the Republican Party and the Blue Dog caucus but even President Obama. Former Blue Dog and current chairman of the DCCC, Steve Israel (D-NY), who could normally be counted on to push the conservative consensus positions on anything and everything told members at a private meeting that entitlements cuts would be damaging politically to the party, and could even hurt candidate recruitment.

All Blue America-endorsed candidates back the letter and Blue America won't be endorsing any incumbents who don't sign on. Needless to say, Janice Hahn will have as much chance of earning Blue America support as Eric Cantor and John Boehner do. So far, the Members who have signed on to Grijalva's and Ellison's letter include:
Sam Farr (D-CA), Marcia Fudge (D-OH), Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), Pete Stark (D-CA), John Conyers (D-MI), Chellie Pingree (D-ME), Jim McDermott (D-WA), Bennie Thompson (D-MS), Hank Johnson (D-GA), Barbara Lee (D-CA), Corrine Brown (D-FL), Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), Jose Serrano (D-NY), Charlie Rangel (D-NY), Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL), Barney Frank (D-MA), Luis Gutierrez (D-IL), Jim McGovern (D-MA), John Lewis (D-GA), David Wu (D-OR), Maxine Waters (D-CA), Donna Edwards (D-MD), Bob Filner (D-CA), Judy Chu (D-CA), Donald Payne (D-NJ), Pete DeFazio (D-OR), Steve Rothman (D-NJ), Steve Cohen (D-TN), Danny Davis (D-IL), Laura Richardson (D-CA), Tim Ryan (D-OH), Frank Pallone (D-NJ), Yvette Clarke (D-NY), Lloyd Doggett (D-TX), John Tierney (D-MA), Lucille Royabal-Allard (D-CA), Jerry Nadler (D-NY), Joe Baca (Blue Dog-CA), Andre Carson (D-IN), Elijah Cummings (D-MI), Mark Critz (D-PA), Maurice Hinchey (D-NY), Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), Silvestre Reyes (D-TX), Betty Sutton (D-OH), Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC), Rush Holt (D-NJ), Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), John Garamendi (D-CA), Henry Waxman (D-CA), Ed Markey (D-MA), Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX), Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), Grace Napolitano (D-CA), Paul Tonko (D-NY), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), Betty McCollum (D-MN), John Olver (D-MA), Chaka Fattah (D-PA) and Al Green (D-TX).

It will be interesting to see how many of them fold when the White House starts screaming and when they throw in a bone-- probably an unemployment extension. Meanwhile, none of the Democrats who have consistently voted more freuqnetly with Boehner and Cantor than with their own caucus, has signed on the protect Social Security and Medicare. Clearly, right-wing Democrats like Dan Boren (Blue Dog-OK), Jason Altmire (Blue Dog-PA), Mike Ross (Blue Dog-AR), Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX), Jim Matheson (Blue Dog-UT), John Barrow (Blue Dog-GA), Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN), Jim Costa (Blue Dog-CA), Joe Donnelly (Blue Dog-IN), Ben Chandler (Blue Dog-KY), Tim Holden (Blue Dog-PA), Mike McIntyre (Blue Dog-NC) and Heath Shuler (Blue Dog-NC)-- the bottom of the barrel-- may not support Obama on anything else, but will back him to the hilt if he sets out to fulfill the conservative dream of gutting Social Security and Medicare.

In Her First Interview After Winning A House Seat, Corrupt ConservaDem Janice Hahn Offers To Bargain Away Social Security & Medicare

Hahn (on the right) is the worst kind of Democrat, one who looks at her constituents as career stepping stones

Tuesday night liberals across the country were greatly cheered by the 6 clear cut victories by progressives-- 5 by landslides-- against Scott Walker's fake candidates in Democratic primaries across Wisconsin. What you didn't read-- not at this blog-- was any cheering for Democratic Party hack Janice Hahn, who won-- narrowly-- her election bid for the west L.A. congressional seat vacated by her disreputable and sleazy crony, Blue Dog Jane Harman.

Hahn, a Democrat in an area where her party enjoys an 18-point registration edge, defeated Republican Craig Huey, 54.6% to 45.4%. But she'll need to start campaigning again soon, as next year's primary is less than a year away.

In an interview Wednesday, Hahn, 59, said she was prepared for both the challenges of her new job and the rigors of a looming campaign.

And she immediately set out to reassure conservatives that they have no reason to not support her. Interviewed on KPCC soon after her sad little victory-- in which so many progressives just abstained-- over a lunatic fringe teabagger, Hahn made it clear that she's ready to take part in dismantling the New Deal, the decades long dream of rightists in America. When asked if she would vote to cut Social Security and Medicare in exchange for raising the debt limit she obfuscated and then let slip her willingness to bargain away the lives of America's most vulnerable citizens, the elderly and infirm. "Americans want us to get together and come up with common sense solutions... If compromises need to be made, I will certainly follow the lead of the President."

That's very different from what we're hearing from Democratic candidates trying to appeal to Democratic-- rather than Republican-- voters. In announcing his intention to run for Congress again, Alan Grayson, a stalwart champion of ordinary working families, made an impassioned speech aimed squarely at weenie-Democrats like Hahn.

Washington is now divided between the Meanies and the Weenies; that's the real two party system today... The Meanies want to take Social Security and Medicare away from grandma and grandpa and the Weenies are quite willing to go along with it and "compromise." Well, people need Social Security and Medicare to live and there's no compromise between life and death; there's no middle ground.

Hahn is exactly what the Democratic congressional caucus does not need-- another despicable lobbyist-driven weenie, pulling the caucus inextricably rightward in the direction of her corporate donors. At the same time she was offering to bargain away the lives of American seniors to avaricious Republican nihilists, the Blue America candidates were making it clear they are on the same page as Grayson-- standing and fighting not just to preserve Medicare and Social Security but to expand and strengthen them. I was especially impressed by a statement from central Florida candidate Nick Ruiz, a very different kind of Democrat than the execrable Hahn.

Whatever debt deal is struck between the two prevailing factions will be primarily a pact of collusion. Thoughtless aristocrats win-- at the expense of the majority of Americans who continue with record losses on a variety of levels. Exchanging cap feathers from largely connected paymasters, the political jesters will cartwheel out of Capitol Hill like ‘winners.’

Make no mistake-- both sides aim to deliver austerity down the barrel of a gun to the American people. And for us, it’s not a matter of whether or not any of the current crop of politicians will block it-- they won’t. It will be a matter of undoing what they’ve done in the next cycle. To do that, we will need more than token Democrats.

Will the U.S. default on its payments? Not likely. But if it does, you can bet all of the major financial interests will know it ahead of time and be short every financial instrument that seems set to implode. Robotic traders know many markets are due for a large correction-- what better way to precipitate it than with Grecian spectacle?

You won’t benefit from this-- but many of them will. And it is why we need a Public Trust-- to hedge against the hedgers.

In every sense, Capitol Hill has already defaulted on its people, and by every measure appears to enjoy the prospects of continuing to do so right through 2012 and beyond, notwithstanding exceptions, such as Bernie Sanders (I-VT) et al.

So what is the jigsaw falling into place for us? The New Deal legacy of widening prosperity is in default. Brick by brick, blow by blow, it is being dissembled under the auspices of ‘reform.’ Cutting Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, unemployment insurance; a paltry minimum wage that remains untethered to the CPI, and thus suppresses all other wages above it by keeping the bottom of the scale, anchored oh so low; a persistently bloated defense budget, rampant tax evasion by patricians and corporations, degradation of the atmosphere and environment, from CO2 levels to worldwide fish stocks-- the corporate hand of fate continues to turn the wheel.

Hoover thought nothing was possible after the Crash of 1929-- FDR everything. What tack would you take? It makes all the difference in the world.

Obama seems to have that Hooverian sense that Hahn can't wait to get behind. Bernie Sanders, an inspiration for every progressive political leader in the country, does not. Sanders, in fact is loudly demanding that Obama keep his campaign promises to protect Social Security and Medicare, promises that helped win him the election against McCain in 2008. This is from a press release from Sander's Senate office:

In a Senate floor speech, Sanders focused on the White House’s newfound interest in Social Security as a target for cuts. “Where does this come from?” Sanders asked. “The president understands that Social Security hasn't contributed one nickel to our deficit. In fact, Social Security has a $2.6 trillion surplus today, can pay out every benefit owed to every eligible American for the next 25 years. Social Security is funded by the payroll tax, not by the U.S. Treasury.”
 
Sanders noted that during Obama’s campaign for president he made clear he would not cut Social Security: “The American people are sick and tired of candidates who run for office and say one thing and then, after they are elected, do something very different.”
 
Sanders cited Obama’s statement from Sept. 6, 2008, when he disagreed with  suggestions by Sen. John McCain’s campaign to raise the Social Security retirement age and to reduce cost-of-living adjustments. “Let me be clear,” Obama said at the time, “I will not do either.”
 
Changing how inflation is measured to determine Social Security benefits is one option the White House injected at the eleventh hour as part of the budget negotiations. Switching to a so-called Chained Consumer Price Index results in lower inflation levels than the current formula used to adjust benefits. The result would amount to a significant cut to Social Security benefits for today’s seniors. Beneficiaries who retire at 65 would get $560 a year less when they turn 75 and $1,000 a year less at age 85.
 
“So, Mr. President, when you ask why the American people are frustrated with politicians, and are increasingly cynical, it has a lot to do with candidates who say one thing and do another thing,” Sanders said.  “If you told the American people you're not going to cut Social Security, then don't cut Social Security. Keep your word.”

Contrast Janice Hahn's willingness to compromise away Social Security and Medicare with this speech yesterday by Bernie Sanders (I-VT):

CA-36 Election Results

Click on the chart to enlarge

Looks like that half million dollars Republican Craig Huey spent out of his own pocket may have earned him a spot in the July run-off against front-runner Janice Hahn who was supported by the L.A. political machine. He appears to have edged progressive champion Debra Bowen by around 200 votes. In 4th place is the other progressive in the race, Marcy Winograd. Many people will say that Marcy played the spoiler and ruined Bowen's chances to make the runoff and beat Hahn. But Marcy has a unique message and had every right to run and she probably wouldn't have run had Bowen not played into Joe Trippi's hands-- Hahn's consultant-- with a bogus Israel pledge meant to lure Marcy into the race and do... exactly what was done. Bowen should never have signed the pledge, just said she supports a two-state solution and the right of the Jewish people to a homeland in Israel. The pledge was created to enrage Marcy and lure her into the race to split the progressive vote and hamper Bowen. It worked.

However... there are still 9,800 absentee votes to be counted, more than enough to make up for the 200 vote lead Huey has over Debra. We may not know what the result is for another week or even two.






UPDATE FROM DOUG KAHN:

It’ll Be Debra Bowen vs. Janice Hahn in CA-36

I’m saying Debra Bowen will make the run-off in CA-36, that a final count will erase the 206 votes margin that separate her from a 2nd place finish. It depends on how good she was at the nuts and bolts of getting people to supporter her, and then getting them to vote. We really don’t know that yet. I think she was very good, but we’ll see.

I supported her, but made what I considered to be a token campaign contribution, because I didn’t think she’d make the run-off. Having two very good progressive candidates (and Marcy Winograd is a very, very good progressive) in a race is a double-whammy; they’ll not only split the vote, but you can expect many progressives to have a bad feeling about the contest, and just not vote.

It’s a Democratic district, for sure; and Blue Dog Jane Harman regularly rolled up 2 to 1 margins over her Republican opponents. But these were, by all accounts, weak candidates, and Harman appeals to older, conservative, and Republican voters; these are all high-propensity voting groups. Democrats outnumber Republicans 5 to 3, but 25% of voters are neither. This is a perfect situation for a tea-bagger; no mainstream Republican politician who has a shot at a seat in Congress thinks about running in the 36th. So an out-of-district wingnut like Huey can pretty much roll.

Harman resigned when she did because she wanted a low turnout election, setting up the contest for another conservative/hack Democrat, Janice Hahn. I don’t know if it was part of that strategy, but it also makes it easier for a teabagger to get a lot of attention and a lot of votes. That can’t be bad in a runoff with any Democrat.

I Thought Bowen was a Long Shot

So you had 3 well-funded, well-known Democrats fighting over 45% of the electorate, and one well-funded idiot drooling over the 27% of voters who are Republicans added to the usual slack-jawed ranters who vote because they think the Republican party has sold out to Socialism. Welcome to the new California election system.

Under these circumstances, my analysis (which is probably a too-generous self-appraisal of what goes on in my head) was that it was going to be Janice Hahn and an actual Republican, with real Democrats bringing up the rear.

Now I think I was wrong. I hope it’s because progressives are enthusiastic about elections these days. I know I am. Recent polling and results in special elections show a sharp reversal from last November’s results.

On Tuesday, the New Hampshire House of Representatives got a new member. In the 4th District, Republican Robert Mead had resigned to become chief of staff to House Speaker Bill O’Brien, another wingnut teabagger. He’s being replaced by Democrat Jennifer Daler, who beat a Republican in a heavily Republican district, and it was a landslide, 58%-42%. More important was how it happened. In a special election that was expected to have a dismal turnout and a highly conservative lean, 20% of voters came to the polls, and the extra voters were Democrats. Howie has a longer explanation going up tomorrow afternoon.

This District is Different

So yes, Debra is 206 votes behind, in third place. She didn’t beat Republican/Wingnut Craig ‘Baby’ Huey at the polls. But she did have a 798 vote edge over him in the vote-by-mail.

None of the media seems to understand that the 36th District has a unique history when it comes to absentee (vote-by-mail) voting. Jane Harman always had a massive vote-by-mail campaign running in general elections, so Democrats in the 36th District are accustomed to voting that way. The usual Republican edge in stay-at-home voters never held true there.

My memory is a bit hazy about the '90s, but I think at least once Harman was behind on election day before pulling it out when mail-in votes were tallied. I remember her spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on sophisticated vote-by-mail operations. We used to collect her mail pieces and crib off them to design our own in Pasadena-area local elections.

My first thought when I saw the LA Times coverage, the 206 votes Debra needed, was that she'd make it through once all the vote-by-mail ballots were counted. I’ve done some math, and I still think so. Here are the numbers on Bowen’s victory over Huey in the vote-by-mail count and defeat at the 261 polling places.

The Numbers

L.A. County reported 53,659 ‘ballots cast/turnout’ (vote-by-mail received plus day of election). 25,949 of those, slightly less than half, were vote-by-mail.

Bowen’s voters:

11,442 total

-5,448 vote-by-mail

=5,994 precinct vote

Huey’s voters:

11,648 total

-4,650 vote-by-mail

=6,998 precinct vote

There are 9,811 untallied votes, and 8,416 of those are vote-by-mail that hadn’t been received by election day. If those 8,416 go the way the mail-in count went, then Bowen would get 1,784 more votes, Huey would get 1,522 more, and Bowen picks up 262 more votes, enough to get her into the runoff.

In California, anyone can apply to vote by mail, and your ballot counts if it arrives by election day or if you drop it off in person. Debra’s chances depend upon how good her campaign was at identifying supporters, getting them to request mail-in ballots, and checking to make sure they mailed it on time.

Crucially, throughout the day on election day they had to examine the precinct lists at the polls to see how many of ‘her’ voters still hadn’t voted or turned in their mail-in ballots. Then, they had to somehow get these people to the polling place either with our without a mail-in ballot. If you’ve requested and received a ballot and haven’t mailed it in, you can still drop it off at any polling place; or you can turn it in unused at your own precinct and use the voting booth.

And then there are the 1,269 ‘provisional’ ballots; an unknown number of those were people who got mail-in ballots, didn’t send them in, and went to their polling place without the ballot. In those cases, the voter casts a ballot, and the vote will count if the Registrar of Voters confirms there was no mail-in.

This is a real test of campaign competency. Bowen is Secretary of State, responsible for California elections. You’d have to really wonder about her viability in a runoff if she didn’t have an efficient vote-by-mail/GOTV operation.

---------------

Late this afternoon Marcy sent an e-mail to her supporters thanking them for their help. She included this paragraph:

"Huey would like to buy his way into Congress, so that the super rich can privatize America and abolish all regulations, including environmental protections. Though few media pundits took him seriously, we must now mobilize to defeat him-- should he make it to the run-off. Given Bowen's strong base of support in the heavily-populated South Bay and Torrance, however, I expect she will make it to the run-off."

This is the time to renew our efforts for Debra Bowen. It's a chance for CA-36 to make a clean sweep of the bad old Jane Harman days and elect a real progressive leader, an independent thinker with a fresh outlook. She's on the Blue America page

Another Blue Dog Bites The Dust-- Jane Harman Leaving Congress

Don't worry about millionaires; they have hundreds of Members of Congress to continue pushing their interests in a post-Harman world

Conservative multimillionaire, AIPAC lackey and pro-war fanatic Jane Harman has had a rough time winning Democratic primaries in her progressive Los Angeles district lately. It's probably been no fun for her having to defend her regal self against scrappy anti-war progressive Marcy Winograd. So it wasn't that big of a shock early yesterday morning when the Internets started buzzing about her retirement from Congress, something that was quickly confirmed by her regal self:

Dear [fill in the name of a dupe who supports Harman],

Earlier today, I filed paperwork notifying the House of Representatives that I am in discussions to succeed former Rep. Lee Hamilton as President and CEO of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. I send this note because a decision is imminent and I wanted you to hear the news from me first.

This is an excruciating decision because the distinction of representing the smartest constituents on earth will never be surpassed-- nor will my relationships with my exceptional staff and colleagues in Congress. But shaping and leading the Wilson Center is a thrilling new challenge.

I have always believed that the best solutions to tough problems require a bipartisan approach, and bipartisanship is the Center’s “brand.” Serving at its helm provides unique opportunities to involve the House and Senate, top experts, and world leaders in “great debates” about the most pressing foreign and domestic policy matters.

Should this opportunity come to pass, I would be required to resign my seat. But please know that I would remain in Congress for some weeks and do everything possible to ensure an orderly transition to whomever is elected to succeed me. Sidney and I will always retain our residence in Venice, be home frequently, and stay engaged at USC and active in the community.

You have elected me to nine terms in Congress-- an honor without equal. I hope you understand how truly grateful I am for your friendship and support.

JANE

Harman, a Blue Dog in a progressive state, who has alienated Nancy Pelosi and been exposed for underhanded anti-U.S. dealings on behalf of the Bush Regime, had no future in Congress. She has lost influence committee-wise and is considered the least trustworthy member of the Democratic caucus. "Her word doesn't mean a thing," the chief of staff of one influential Democrat told me last night. "The voters in her district will be better off without her in Congress."

The Wilson Center hasn't made a final determination on whether or not to offer Harman the job and they are meeting today to decide. There is some chatter in their circles that Hosni Mubarak may be looking for a new gig and that he would be just as suitable as Harman. And he's even richer than she is-- having pillaged an entire country for decades.

Even before I knew Harman was planning to resign, I had a call from a friend of L.A. City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, asking me if Blue America would back Hahn, extolling what he called her "strongly progressive record." I called Marcy Winograd, who Blue America has backed in all her runs against Harman and she told me Hahn had reached out to her as well, assuring her that, like Marcy, she strongly opposes current U.S. doctrine of preemptive wars. Later, Marcy posted this message to her supporters:

Dear Friends,

Thank you for your calls and emails, wanting to know my thoughts on Harman's resignation. I appreciate your interest and outreach, and am excited about the possibilities for substantive change
.
Please read my blog post below and let me know what you think. Warm regards, Marcy

Winograd on Harman's Resignation & a Possible Run

When I heard the news that Jane Harman was resigning, I thought, ‘Now we finally have an opportunity to send a progressive to Congress, someone who will work to create jobs in the new economy, to free the 36th District from its perpetual war footing.'

I was at school, in between TEACHING classes, checking my cell phone messages from news editors, bloggers, and former campaign supporters, all asking the same question…

‘Will you run again?’

‘I am exploring the possibility,’ I told them, adding that I live in Santa Monica now, less than a mile outside of the district that hugs the coast from Venice to San Pedro. In 2010, just months ago, the Winograd for Congress campaign mobilized 41% of the vote in a primary challenge to Harman. It was exhilarating, daunting, inspiring, and eye-opening as I precinct walked from one end of the district to the other.

Most of the support came from the northern end of the district, from Venice and Mar Vista, but we enjoyed significant inroads in the working class union strongholds of Wilmington and San Pedro.

I barely had time to digest the political possibilities before running back to class, to my South LA high school students, some of them dressed in military fatigues, where we would read Vietnam veteran Ron Kovic’s essay, Breaking the Silence of the Night, a passionate account of Kovic’s transformation from blind follower to critical thinker and anti-war leader.

My high school students knew nothing of the buzz in the blogosphere, only that their teacher seemed a little preoccupied.

I had just hung up with LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, who told me she was running, making a courtesy call-- perhaps hoping to clear the field-– and asking for an endorsement. I told her I had two concerns-– that we needed a voice that would challenge pre-emptive wars, regardless of whether the wars were waged by Republicans or Democrats, and that we needed a Congressperson who would advocate for a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, someone who would not be afraid to criticize Israel, to fight for equal rights for both Palestinians and Jews. It was time for the United States to be an honest broker at the negotiating table. World stability depends on it.

After reminding me she had supported anti-war efforts on the Los Angeles City Council, Hahn added, “I want to make it clear. I am a friend to Israel.”

I am a friend to equality and dignity for all.

I asked Hahn if she would be willing to meet with a group of Jews and Palestinians offering an alternative viewpoint to current US foreign policy.

Yes, she would.

A few hours later news broke that Secretary of State Debra Bowen was also running. Not surprising, since Bowen will term out of office soon. I know Debra and admire her courage in taking on the electronic voting industry, in banning touch-screen voting machines. Would she also be ready to take on the military budget? To demand that Washington stop holding our young engineers hostage to bomb-building-- and award contracts, instead, to corporations intent on developing mass transit, high speed rail, and solar cities?

I haven’t had a chance to speak with Debra Bowen-– but when I do I will ask her the tough questions, starting with …

“Will you vote against further military appropriations for expanded wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen?”

“Will you go to the wall to defend Social Security and Medicare, our greatest safety nets?”

“Will you visit Bradley Manning in solitary confinement?”

“Will you walk the streets of Wilmington with me, breathe the oil fumes, and work to crack down on polluters?”

“Will you support the right of states to pursue single-payer health care?”

I am waiting to ask the tough questions-– and to hear courageous answers.

Then I will decide.

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Californians recently passed an Open Primary law, meaning that if no candidate wins 50% plus one vote in the Special Election, the top two vote getters go head-to-head in the next round. Had the Open Primary law been in effect when Winograd challenged Harman in 2010, the two would have faced off against each other in the General Election, as well. Given the small turn-out in special elections, 35,000 of the 300,000 registered voters may decide who replaces Jane Harman. In June, 2010, Winograd received 18,000 votes.

Others considering the run include Crooks and Liars publisher John Amato of Mar Vista and, as Marcy said above, Marina Del Rey resident and California Secretary of State Debra Bowen. And with the conservative DLC closing up operations-- another Harman base-- let's all pray fervently that Harold Ford's next move in search of something with which to repay Wall Street for their generosity (to him and his career aspirations) isn't to Venice or, more likely, Palos Verdes Estates.