Uncalled House Races-- Just A Dozen To Go

 

The latest election tallies show that Joe Biden is leading President Trump by 5,060,175 votes. That is a larger number than the margin between President Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012. In the 2012 election, Obama had 4,982,296 more votes than Romney.

This morning's election counties have Trump losing by 5,060,175 votes and that number will keep growing as more votes are counted in New York and California. At the moment, it stands like this:

• President-elect Joe Biden- 76,997,481 (50.8%)-- 290 electoral votes
• Señor Donald J. Trumpanzee- 71,926,263 (47.5%)- 214 electoral votes

There were a dozen actual swing states and 99% of the votes are counted in each one. Biden won 7 and Trump won 5:

This morning the race in Los Angeles for CA-34 was called for Jimmy Gomez, a garden variety progressive politician, who was in a D vs D fight with a super-progressive activist, David Kim. That leaves just an even dozen uncalled House races nationally, 3 more in California, 1 in Illinois, 1 in Iowa and 7 on New York.

The other California races are all for seats that were flipped from red to blue in 2018 and each pits a Republican against an uninspiring, pointless New Dem.

CA-21 includes all of Kings County and parts of Fresno, Kern and Tulare. It is 75% Hispanic and the PVI is D+5. In 2016, Hillary beat Trump there 55.2% to 39.7% and in 2018 TJ Cox ousted David Valadao by 862 votes-- 57,239 (50.4%) to 56,377 (49.6%). Cox has been a shitty Congress, not as shitty as Valadao, but utterly worthless. Valadao challenged him to a rematch and, with 91% of the vote counted, is now leading 72,350 (51.4%) to 68,324 (48.6%). Cox raised $4,798,088 to Valadao's $3,721,619. The DCCC spent $3,704,254 and Pelosi's House Majority PAC spent $3,218,656, about the same thing the Republican committees spent trying to help Valadao.

CA-25 is the Santa Clarita Valley/Antelope Valley/Simi Valley district that Katie Hill flipped in 2018 and then resigned from in a sex scandal. Mike Garcia beat pointless conservative Democrat Christy Smith in the special election on March 3-- 95,667 (54.9%) to 78,721 (45.1%). That was despite massive DCCC spending on Smith's behalf in a district with a Democratic registration advantage where the PVI is even but where Hillary beat Trump by 7 points. In 2018, Hill beat the Republican incumbent, Steve Knight, 133,209 (54.4%) to 111,813 (45.6%). With 99% of the vote counted, Garcia and Smith have been seesawing back and forth, with him currently leading her by 159 votes-- 165,178 (50.0%) to 165,019 (50.1%). Neither is fit to be in Congress.

Worst of the 3 terrible Democratic candidates in the uncalled California races is Gil Cisneros, the lottery winner who bought an Orange County/L.A./San Bernardino open seat in 2018 with $9,252,762 of his lottery winnings. He campaigned as a fake progressive and, predictably, joined the New Dems when he got to Congress and ran up a voting record rated "F" by ProgressivePunch. He's a waste of a seat and his 126,002 (51.6%) to 118,391 (48.4%) 2018 win over Republican Young Kim is-- with 99% of the vote counted-- not looking good. She leads him 167,564 (50.6%) to 163,396 (49.4%). Refusing to spend much of his own money again (just $370,887), he was out-raised by her $5,319,367 to $3,779,013. The DCCC and Pelosi's PAC put in another $2.6 million but it doesn't seem to have helped combat Democratic lethargy for another useless Republican-lite candidate with no accomplishments.

The uncalled race in Illinois is for the R+5 district northwest of Chicago, where Lauren Underwood ousted Randy Hultgren in 2018-- 156,035 (52.5%) to 141,164 (47.5%), winning in all 7 counties. Having made some progressive noises in 2018, she quickly ran up an "F" voting record (ProgressivePunch). Although Obama won the district in 2008, Hillary lost to Trump by 4 points. Right now with 99% of the votes counted, Underwood is narrowly leading right-wing fanatic and perennial self-funder Jim Oberweis, 198,017 (50.4%) to 194,588 (49.6%). Oberweis kicked in $1,208,179 from his personal fortune, but she out-raised him $7,099,198 to $2,515,192. The DCCC considered her safe and didn't spend in the district.

The Iowa race, in the southeast quadrant of the state (IA-02) is open because Democrat Dave Loebsack decided to retire. The Democrats ran Rita Hart and the Republican candidate is Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the D+1 district that re-elected Loebsack by 12 points in 2018, two years after giving Trump a 4 points win. (Obama took in by 13 points in 2012.) This is another race that is see-sawing back and forth. Right now, with 89% of the votes counted, Miller-Meeks leads 196,860 (50.0%) to 196,812 (50.0%)-- just 48 votes! Right now, this is the closest congressional race in the country. Hart out-raised Miller-Meeks $3,631,135 to $1,518,295 and the DCCC and Pelosi's PAC kicked in about $6.5 million, about the same as the GOP committees.

And that brings us to New York, where there are 7 uncalled races. Trump won both Long Island counties again. The Democrats nominated a conservative Blue Dog, Jackie Gordon. to run for Peter King's open seat on the South Shore. Only 78% of the vote has been counted but she is losing to Republican Andrew Garbarino, 157,482 (57.8%) to 112,584 (41.3%), not a gap she looks likely to close enough to win. On the North Shore New Dem Tom Suozzi looks like he's in trouble behind George Santos-- 137,938 (50.5%) to 133,765 (49.0%)-- but will likely win substantially with 28% of ballots (mostly blue mail in votes) uncounted.

The red-leaning Trump strongholds in Staten Island and south Brooklyn are delivering for the GOP and Democrats have been wiped out there. With 85% of the votes counted Blue Dog Max Rose-- who campaigned against his own party and is not that dissimilar to a stinking pile of shit-- is losing to Republican Nicole Malliotakis, 136,383 (57.9%) to 99,224 (42.1%). The PVI is R+3 and Rose has been one of the worst Democrats in the House and clearly doesn't deserve to be reelected, despite having outraised Malliotakis $8,350,467 to $3,052,007. The DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC wasted over $9 million on this race.

Although neither are is called yet, Sean Patrick Maloney and Antonio Delgado (NY-18 and 19) both lead their Republican opponents, Maloney 135,819 (51.0%) to 127,918 (48.1%)and Delgado 141,993 (50.3%) to 134,602 (47.6%), with a Libertarian shaving 1.2% of the vote off the Republican's total. About 80% is in on each candidate and, like Suozzi both these New Dems are likely going back to the House. Maloney has already announced he wants to run for the DCCC chair. I doubt he could be as bad as Cheri Bustos, but he'd be very close if he manages to win (unlikely).

The most exciting races are further north, NY-22 and NY-24. In NY-22 Anthony Brindisi-- the worst Blue Dog in the House, and one who many of his colleagues are actually hoping loses-- is in a rematch with ex-Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, She's a psychotic Trumpster so this is a race without a lesser evil. With 80% counted she's leading 139,926 (54.4%) to 111,539 (43.4%) in an R+6 district. It's hard to imagine Brindisi winning. Good riddance!

NY-24 (Syracuse and environs) is a D+3 district where progressive Dana Balter is working to oust mainstream Republican John Katko. 78% is counted and he leads her 155,830 (58.5%) to 110,728 (37.8%) in a rematch from 2018. Obama won the district by 16 points in 2012 and Hillary won it by about 3 and a half points in 2016. In 2018 Katko was reelected 136,920 (52.6%) to 123,226 (47.4%). This year he outraised Balter $3,541,163 to $2,711,811, but the DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC kicked in a little over $5 million, about the same as the Republican committees.

How Many More Seats In Congress Will The Democrats Win Because Of Trump's Trade War?

The big Politico headline early yesterday morning, Trump disputes impact of tariffs on American consumers, but warns China not to retaliate, was instantly controversial on two levels. First... well, just watch the chief Trumpanzee economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace, admitting that his boss, Señor Trumpanzee, doesn't know shit from shinola about the impact of the trade war he's waging against China and American consumers and producers.

The second part of the Politico headline-- his absurd warning to China about not retaliating-- went down in flames as well. Washington Post: China said it will raise tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods effective June 1. That's what happens in a trade war-- tit for tatted everyone suffers as it inevitably escalates. The announcement of the retaliation by China sent world stock markets plummeting. The Dow was almost instantly down 600 points.

China is targeting U.S. agriculture, which has already been bearing the brunt of Trump's trade war. China knows that if Trump's support in rural areas starts to dissipate, his reelection bid is over. It's not just farmers in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa who can swing the 2020 election; peanut farmers in Georgia, wheat farmers in Kansas and Nebraska, poultry farmers in North Carolina and Arkansas are getting fed up-- and not seeing any of the financial relief Trump promised months ago.



What a terrible day for the news to break that former Illinois congressman, Bobby Schilling (R) is going to run for the open Iowa seat (IA-02) being given up by Democrat Dave Loebsack! "I'm a business man," Schilling said. "I won't make a decision to run unless I'm absolutely sure I can win it. ... I'm 98 percent there." The district, which includes Iowa City, Davenport and Burlington is 60% rural and hurting badly from the Trump trade wars. Obama had won the district twice but Hillary was the completely wrong candidate for the voters there and Trump took it 49.1% to 45.0%. Last year Loebsack was reelected 54.8-42.6% and won the 3 biggest counties in the district-- Scott, Johnson and Clinton-- with margins big enough to overcome big GOP majorities in the small, rural counties-- Wayne, Decatur, Lucas, Keokuk, Mahaska-- counties that are likely to react badly to Republicans next year with Trump on the top of the ticket. These are also exactly the kind of counties that Republican Joni Ernst will be depending on for her Senate race.

Meanwhile, it looks like the ignoramus is stumbling into a two-front war. His trade war now is against the whole world-- not Russia, of course. By the end of the week he's expected to announce a 25% tariff against European-made cars, not just exotic brands like Rolls Royce, Porsche, Lamborghini, Bentley, Ferrari, and Bugatti, but also against more commonly U.S.-sold cars by Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW, Fiat, Volvo, Land Rover, Audi and Jaguar. Our allies--or at least our pre-Trump allies-- in the E.U are putting the finishing touches on a list of American goods to target with retaliatory tariffs, likely designed to hurt Trump politically in red states.

Trump's response to China yesterday was to threaten more tariffs. This kind of thing is inevitable when you elect-- or Putin installs-- a dim-witted, unread school yard bully as "president." ZeroHedge:

Trump must be confused about who pays custom duties (or maybe he can't break the news to the deadbeat consumer ahead of an election year), as the US imposes increased tariff rates on Chinese goods. The tax is levied at the time of import and is paid by the American importer of record, and then passed onto consumers.

A new report from Oxford Economics, revealed that the 25% tariff rate on $200 billion in goods imports from China would cost the economy $62 billion in economic output by next year, which translates to an equivalent loss of $490 per household.

The research firm estimates that a tariff on all imports from China would cost the economy about $100 billion by 2020, which translates to an equivalent loss of $800 per household.

The announced tariffs have come at a somewhat inconvenient time for the economy.

Economic growth is rapidly decelerating besides Kudlow's bullish propaganda remarks, and the US faces continued headwinds from monetary policy tightening and actual fiscal drag in 2020.

Trump has stated that trade wars are "good and easy to win" and believes tariffs are the only solution to force China to make a deal.

The effects of the trade war are being felt by industries across the country, from farmers in the Midwest to auto manufacturers in the Rust Belt.

Senator Rand Paul told host George Stephanopoulos on Sunday that he's "very concerned" that the trade war will depend and end up hurting consumers, farmers, and manufacturers.

"I know of a big company that told me that the tax cuts specifically helped them but that the tariffs are almost equal in punishing them," Paul said, referring to the Republican-led tax overhaul passed in 2017. "The farmers in Kentucky are concerned about the tariffs, and I've talked to the administration about this. . . . The longer we're involved in a tariff battle or a trade war, the better chance there is that we could actually enter into a recession because of it."

Henry M. Paulson Jr., who was treasury secretary under President George W. Bush, spoke with "Face the Nation" on Sunday and said, "we don't have many good tools" to pressure China into a deal but warned tariffs aren't an ideal choice.

"They're a tax on the American consumer," said Paulson. He added: "Will it hurt us? If this persists too long, it will. There'll be a cost to it."

If President Trump ever admitted to his base that they were the ones paying the tariffs, not the Chinese, well, his base would be in an uproar, could jeopardize his 2020 run. So in the meantime, President Trump is keeping the American people content with fake news tweets while slowly pushing out Kudlow to spill the beans.

This is part of the note my financial advisor sent me yesterday evening: "Escalations in trade tensions between the U.S. and China continued to startle the markets. A trade deal was not reached Friday, and as a result, higher tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods went into effect. As expected, China announced that it will retaliate by raising tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods effective June 1... The markets reacted to the continuing uncertainty, and the major indices tumbled Monday on fears that higher tariffs will limit economic and corporate growth. Not only was there disappointment of no deal, but the growing size of potential tariffs appears to have changed the direction of the discussion. The risk that this could be a harbinger of more challenging discussions with Japan and Europe over auto imports increases uncertainty... The next move is likely the official initiation of a 25% tariff on an additional $325 billion of Chinese imports by the U.S., which will likely invite an additional Chinese response and more negative headlines. As a result, the equity markets may see more volatility in the foreseeable future." So... yesterday, the Dow closed down 617 points down. The NASDAQ was down 269.9 points. Watch CNN's take on Trumpanzee's "false economics" and how his trade war is going to hurt Sen. Susan Collins' reelection chances next year: