Iowa Is About To Look A Lot Bluer, Even If Just A Pale Shade Of Blue

The Des Moines Register and Elizabeth Warren agree that J.D. should be the next congressman from IA-04-- while the DCCC snoozes

There was a big stir Saturday night when an early version of the Des Moines Register hit the internet. Iowa's leading newspaper announced their congressional endorsements: GOP has failed to govern; give Democrats a chance. They endorsed Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack and 3 Democratic challengers to Republican incumbents: garden variety Democrats Abby Finkenauer, and Cindy Axne plus cutting edge progressive J.D. Scholten.

When Republicans achieved the trifecta in 2016, winning the presidency as well as holding the House and Senate, it seemed the country was poised to move beyond the GOP-engineered partisan gridlock that had characterized much of the previous six years.

Americans had reason to expect action from Congress, for better or worse, on a variety of issues ranging from health care and immigration to reducing government overspending.

Not so much, as it turned out. The Republican majority in Congress tried and failed to dismantle the Affordable Care Act without offering a plan of their own that a majority of their own members-- let alone a majority of the American people-- could support.  Instead, they have allowed the system to become increasingly unstable, leading to a lack of competition and rising premiums.

Republicans in Congress have not only failed at comprehensive immigration reform, but their action allowed protection to expire on young, undocumented Americans brought here as children. They haven’t even fully funded President Trump’s border wall. They stood by as the administration tried to bar Muslims from certain countries from entering the United States. They looked the other way as the administration shocked and dismayed the nation by separating young children from their parents at the border, holding them in detention and losing track of some of the kids.

Republicans promised fiscal responsibility, yet they have punted on putting the nation back on sound financial footing. Their one major legislative success, the 2017 tax cut, is projected to add $1.9 trillion to the debt. This, after Republicans howled endlessly about the comparatively meager deficits created during the Obama administration. The Congressional Budget Office said in August that these tax cuts and spending increases would become “unsustainable” if extended. But the House GOP, including Iowa’s three Republican representatives, voted last month for another $3.8 trillion in tax cuts.

The Republican majority has twiddled its thumbs while President Trump started a trade war with China, imposing tariffs and provoking retaliation that is hurting Iowa farmers by threatening export markets. They have even allowed the Farm Bill to expire, leaving town without resolving differences.

Some have argued that this election should be a referendum on President Trump. We disagree. This is about Congress, which has abdicated much of its constitutional duty and has failed to provide a check and balance to the executive branch.

Not only has the party failed to act as a check on the president, key Republicans have been complicit in trying to obstruct and undermine the investigation of a foreign power’s interference in a U.S. election. And by their silence they have tacitly endorsed the president’s racism, misogyny, white nationalism, divisiveness and crudity.

In becoming the party of Trump, the Republicans have forsaken traditional conservatism and given voters no rational alternative to the Democrats. The party needs to be voted out of power and spend a few years becoming again the party of Lincoln, not the party of Trump.

...4th District: Scholten

This one’s a no-brainer for any Iowan who has cringed at eight-term incumbent King’s increasing obsession with being a cultural provocateur. In his almost 16 years in Congress, King has passed exactly one bill as primary sponsor, redesignating a post office. He won’t debate his opponent and rarely holds public town halls. Instead, he spends his time meeting with fascist leaders in Europe and retweeting neo-Nazis.

His Democratic challenger, J.D. Scholten, a 38-year-old former professional baseball player from Sioux City, is a breath of fresh air. He’s focused entirely on working for the 4th District, particularly rural communities that are struggling with the effects of low commodity prices, Trump’s trade war and workforce shortages as a result of the immigration crackdown. His party label doesn’t match that of many of his voters, but he can relate to people across the political spectrum.

We particularly like Scholten’s willingness to vote for new leadership of his caucus in the interest of easing partisan gridlock. We endorse him not just as an antidote for King’s virulent xenophobia but as a promising new leader.

A few hours later the Washington Post noted that across the country, "Enthusiasm is up across almost all demographic groups, but the increases are greater among younger adults, nonwhite voters and those who say they favor Democrats for the House." This was based on a Langer Research poll they released with ABC News. It shows Trump's national approval/disapproval at 41-54% and generic Democratic candidates leading generic Republican candidates nationally by 11 points-- 53-42% among registered voters and even higher among likely voters.

Now, back to Iowa for a moment. In the first district, Rod Blum has already been tossed overboard by Ryan, basically among the walking dead. The 538 Forecaster gives him a 1 in 30 chance to win, a dismal 3.6% in a district Obama won twice but where Trump beat Hillary 48.7% to 46.2%. This is Bernie country and the PVI is still D+1. Abby Finkenauer is a mediocre candidate but she will beat Blum, a very far right incumbent. He has struggled to keep up with her fundraising by writing himself a $500,000 personal check. As of June 30 he had "raised" $1,780,866 to her $1,861,542. Democratic SuperPACs have spent $828,045 attacking Blum and no GOP PACs have spent on his behalf.

The 3rd district is closer. David Young is a wealthy, sad sack closet case who is about to lose his seat to a not very special Democrat, Cindy Axne. The 538 Forecaster gives him a 42.7% chance of reelection-- 3 in 7... and dropping. The PVI is R+1 and, again, Obama won twice with Trump beating Hillary 48.5% to 45.0%.

The 4th district is the real red part of Iowa-- Obama lost both times and Trump took it by a lot: 60.9% to 33.5%. Unlike the other two, the DCCC is ignoring the district, which allowed a grassroots progressive, J.D. Scholten, to win the primary. The DCCC and associated PACs have spent $2,223,318 against Young but not a nickel against King. Scholten and King have raised around half a million dollars each but Scholten has $254,566 going into the final stretch to King's $117,554. The 538 Forecaster gives King an 89.1% chance at reelection, 8 in 9. This could be one of the cycle's biggest upsets. Scholten is running the kind of outside the box, grassroots campaign that isn't picked up by traditional forecasters. If you'd like to contribute to his campaign, please tap on the thermometer on the right that will take you to the ActBlue page for progressives who won their primaries and have been ignored or undercut by the DCCC anyway. This is an important page for Blue America because it includes some of our best candidates who are not just fighting right-wing Republicans but are also fending off the determined negativity of establishment corporate Democrats.

Lesser Of Two Evils? Sometimes The Call Is Just Too Close

In the lesser of 2 evils argument, morons on Twitter (and the DWT comments section) rarely-- rarely like in never-- take hard votes and congressional actions into account. Chad Pergram is Fox News' chief DC correspondent. He has great connections and nothing to do with the lunatics like Hannity, Tucker Carlson, Jesse Watters, Laura Ingraham, Steve Doocy and Brian Kilmeade.

Saturday he was tweeting away about how enough Republicans had signed the DACA discharge petition to force a floor debate and vote... but that 3 ultra-right wing Democrats-- Texas Blue Dogs Henry Cuellar, Vicente Gonzalez and Filemon Vela-- refused to sign, the only Democrats who did, killing the chances, at least for now, of a DACA debate. Pergram's tweets explain all the mechanics of the problem. Let me talk a little about the mechanics of it.

In the middle of the 2006 wave, Rahm Emanuel insisted on sneaking dozens of Blue Dogs into Congress. In a wave cycle many low-info voters don't understand or care if a candidate is a Blue Dog or a progressive. They just want to strike out against Republicans. So Emanuel loaded up on them. By 2010 Democratic voters realized they'd been duped and they stayed away from the polls rather than reelect the Blue Dogs and New Dems. Every one of Rahm's Blue Dog recruits was defeated.

The current DCCC chair, Ben Ray Lujan, is far stupider than Rahm so he asked Rahm for advice. Rahm advised him to load up on Blue Dogs and New Dems again and that's exactly what the DCCC has been doing. But voters aren't always going along with it. Some of the worst of that lot, like Jay Hulings in Texas, JD Huffstetler in Virginia and Brad Ashford in Nebraska were all ignominiously defeated despite the DCCC's slimy tactics.

When Blue Dogs and New Dems get into Congress, you can always expect behavior like Cuellar, Gonzalez and Vela just exhibited, shitting all over the Democratic brand and confusing voters about a difference between Democrats and Republicans. Tomorrow is primary day in several states including states where progressives are battling against DCCC crap candidates-- like in California, Iowa and New Jersey. The worst candidate the DCCC has overtly endorsed this cycle is Gil Cisneros (CA-49), an "ex"-Republican, a carpetbagger from another district, a lottery winning self funder and a complete joke. Sam Jammal is a far better candidate on every level. The other candidates progressives should avoid in California are Mike Levin (CA-49), New Dem Dave Min (CA-45), and DCCC recruits who worked out so badly that even the DCCC had abandoned them-- Hans Keirstead (CA-48) and Mai-Khanh Tran (CA-39). Even worse than Keirstead and Tran, but in Santa Clarita, not Orange County, is Bryan Caforio. Saturday's Santa Clarita Signal:

Character counts.

There are a few people left who think how you play the game matters as much as whether you win or lose.

Sports teach us this, and so should elections.

How one competes is more important than how big of a scene someone can make, or how many Twitter followers someone has garnered.

And rooting for the person willing to win by any means necessary will only yield you a candidate who’s willing to do whatever it takes to win, which can include lying, cheating and stealing-- not traits you want in the person you elect to govern.

...Negative politicking is toxic. It reflects especially poorly upon the person slinging the mud more so than whatever negative pabulum is being spewed... [W]e’ve seen the mailers from Bryan Caforio that again show his negative streak. While he is putting his name to it, the ad hominem attacks in that campaign have drowned out any substantive talk on the issues.

As for the other states, the DCCC has endorsed Abby Finkenaurer in Iowa but she's a weak, pointless politician with no heartfelt values besides winning and her own career. Friends of mine in the Iowa legislature where she serves told me she's a complete waste of a seat. Progressive Thomas Heckroth would make a far better member of Congress.

The DCCC has 4 candidates in New Jersey, one of whom seems pretty good, Andy Kim, although I haven't spoken with him long enough to leave out the word "seems." Blue Dog and NRA ally Jeff Van Drew is widely considered the worst Democrat in the New Jersey state legislature and the DCCC picked him for the very reasons Democrats will eventually abandon him and his seat will revert to the Republicans. Mikie Sherrill is being sold as some kind of a military heroine but she never flew a single coat mission and the DCCC and her campaign are just gaslighting about she's all about-- which is just someone looking for a career and who is a typical status quo nothing. She's someone who talks about tweaking the Affordable Care Act a little bit instead of moving forward with Medicare-For-All the way progressives do. And Tom Malinowski is being sold to voters as the Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor who "earned national acclaim for standing up to dictators like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un." Is that so?

TOM MALINOWSKI AND THE TORTURE LOOPHOLE

The campaign messaging circulated by Malinowski for Congress highlights their candidate’s background as having fought against the sanctioning of torture during the Bush administration. The particulars of this language should not be overlooked. Why? Because once Tom Malinowski became a part of the Obama Administration as an Assistant Secretary of State, his function was not to end practices that were regarded by international legal and human rights organizations as torture. Instead, he facilitated the continuation of protocols by United States that created a “torture loophole,” a framework by which interrogators could initiate tactics and practices that when used in correlation, their aggregate effects result in the torture of a prisoner. This was accomplished through his defense of the interrogation protocols sanctioned by Appendix M of the US Army Field Manual.

This troubling history was recently brought to light during the confirmation hearing for CIA Director Gina Haspel. Around that context, the wider implications of the shameful legacy of US-sanctioned torture was discussed in a recent podcast by The Intercept (Intercepted, Episode 57, 5/23/18), in which Tom Malinowski’s role in the continuation of torture by the United States was discussed by author and anti-torture activist Dr. Jeffrey Kaye and host Jeremy Scahill:

Dr. Jeffrey Kaye: And the Army Field Manual’s Appendix M is quite clear that its import is to prolong trauma, to prolong what they call “the shock of capture,” and to induce compliance and take away the will of individuals.

And the United Nations Committee against Torture, in 2014, did its investigations on various countries’ compliance with the treaty against torture and when it came around last to the United States, it pointed out and said: You know, Appendix M is inducing psychosis in people. We have real questions about what you’re doing with isolation, and sleep deprivation is actually amounting to torture.

The former member of Human Rights Watch, Tom Malinowski, who at that point was an Obama administration State Department official, responded to the U.N. Committee against Torture and defended the use of Appendix M and said that it had, you know, plenty of safeguards against misuse and torture.

Jeremy Scahill: You’re saying that a former staffer or official at Human Rights Watch, who then goes on to work in the Obama administration, was the official who was put forward to defend the techniques that you’re describing, as they exist in Appendix M, under the Obama administration.

Dr. Jeffrey Kaye: Yes. He was one of four or five officials who were put forward and went to New York to formally respond to what the U.N. officials were criticizing about U.S. interrogation. Yes.

Amnesty International railed against the Obama administration's Malinowski-led effort to deflect criticism for a wide assembly of international human rights advocates at the hearing of the UN Committee Against Torture, stating:

"The USA merely reiterated what the Committee found inadequate during the review, namely that an investigation into CIA interrogations had been conducted and closed, with no charges referred. It also repeated its focus on the future by seeking to consign to history and impunity what had happened in the program...Accountability and remedy for undoubted crimes under international law have fallen by the wayside in this self- congratulatory analysis... So the story on these issues is one of double standards, impunity for crimes under international law, indefinite detentions, secrecy serving to block truth, remedy, and accountability, and rejection after rejection of the recommendations of UN treaty bodies and other human rights experts."

So even though the evasive answers put forward by Malinowski and his team at the 2014 hearing of the UN Committee Against Torture gave the Obama administration the breathing room to allow US interrogation practices to continue, the facts are undeniable: allowing interrogation to operate under the guidelines of US Army Field Manual Appendix M opened up a "torture loophole" by which the human rights of prisoners could continue to be violated within a framework where the United States government could claim plausible deniability. Tom Malinowski had the opportunity to take a principled stance against this inhumane policy. Unfortunately, Malinowski instead chose to be an advocate and apologist for the torture loophole.

I've always said that the DCCC's underpining-- our candidates are the lesser of two evils-- was a very slippery slope... at best. Luckily there's a much better candidate for NJ-07 voters tomorrow: Peter Jacob.

Trouble In Trump Country-- The Reverse Midas Touch In Ohio And Iowa

You probably never heard of Brook Park, Ohio unless you live in the Cleveland area. It's a Cleveland suburb with less than 20,000 people. Or maybe you remember it from last year because the mayor, Tom Coyne-- who was in office from 1982 through 2001 and again from 2013 'til... well Tuesday-- left the Democratic Party to pledge his allegiance to Señor Trumpanzee during the election campaign. He was defeated in his reelection bid this week, running as a Trumpist, by former Brook Park council president Michael Gammella, a United Auto Works rep.

A few weeks ago Trumpanzee, Jr.-- plagued by revelations about his collusion with the Kremlin-- cancelled a fundraiser for Coyne. Results from the 4-man race:

• Michael Gammella: 42.92%
• Thomas Coyne: 37.59%
• Tom Colburn: 10.09%
• Jan Powers: 9.41%

Coyne has told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer that "What's happening is the Republican Party is getting transformed like the old Reagan Democrats, and that's who I represent." And that accounted for almost 38% of the vote-- but without an electoral college, that's not enough to elect anyone to anything.



Getting rid of Coyne wasn't that tough. Getting rid of Rod Blum in Iowa will be a lot tougher. His congressional district in Iowa was once safely blue. In 2015 the PVI was D+5. Obama won it against McCain 58-40% and against Romney 56-42%. But Hillary and her establishment status quo message was as wrong as anything for the district. Among the 20 counties in IA-01, the most votes come out of Linn and Black Hawk, both of which were won by Bernie in the caucuses. When the General Election rolled around, the district flipped from blue to red, Trump beating Hillary 48.7% to 45.2%. To make matters worse, the DCCC put up a wealthy conservative Republican, Monica Vernon, pretending to be a Democrat and Blum crushed her 206,903 (53.7%) to 177,403 (46.1%). There are 160,513 registered Democrats, 142,879 registered Republicans and 187,783 voters who refused to pick between the two corrupt parties.

This cycle, there are 4 candidates so far, Abby Finkenauer (the EMILY's List recruit), Thomas Heckroth, Courtney Rowe and George Ramsey. Now look at the brand new polling from PPP below. Voters aren't that familiar with the Democratic candidates polled-- Heckroth and Finkenauer-- but either looks like they could be a serious contender against Blum, who IA-01 voters are ready to jettison... along with Trump.