Thursday, September 17, 2020

Do You Consider Barr More A Crime Fighter Or More A Crime Spree?

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Yesterday, Wall Street Journal reporters Aruna Viswanatha and Sadie Gurman wrote that Barr told Justice Department prosectors that he wants protesters charged with sedition. Wikipedia defines Sedition as "overt conduct that tends toward insurrection against the established order. Sedition often includes subversion of a constitution and incitement of discontent toward, or resistance against, established authority" and reminded it's readers that "in 1940, the Alien Registration Act, or 'Smith Act,' was passed, which made it a federal crime to advocate or to teach the desirability of overthrowing the United States Government, or to be a member of any organization which does the same. It was often used against communist party organizations. This Act was invoked in three major cases, one of which against the Socialist Worker's Party in Minneapolis in 1941, resulting in 23 convictions, and again in what became known as the Great Sedition Trial of 1944 in which a number of pro-Nazi figures were indicted but released when the prosecution ended in a mistrial. Also, a series of trials of 140 leaders of the Communist Party USA also relied upon the terms of the 'Smith Act'-- beginning in 1949-- and lasting until 1957. Although the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the convictions of 11 CPUSA leaders in 1951 in Dennis v. United States, that same Court reversed itself in 1957 in the case of Yates v. United States, by ruling that teaching an ideal, no matter how harmful it may seem, does not equal advocating or planning its implementation. Although unused since at least 1961, the 'Smith Act' remains a Federal law"... There was "a brief attempt to use the sedition laws against protesters of the Vietnam War. On 17 October 1967, two demonstrators, including then Marin County resident Al Wasserman, while engaged in a 'sit-in' at the Army Induction Center in Oakland, California, were arrested and charged with sedition by deputy US. Marshal Richard St. Germain. U.S. Attorney Cecil Poole changed the charge to trespassing. Poole said, 'three guys (according to Mr. Wasserman there were only 2) reaching up and touching the leg of an inductee, and that's conspiracy to commit sedition? That's ridiculous!' The inductees were in the process of physically stepping on the demonstrators as they attempted to enter the building, and the demonstrators were trying to protect themselves from the inductees' feet. Attorney Poole later added, 'We'll decide what to prosecute, not marshals.'"

Sounds like something Barr would just love to be involved with, right? He "told told the nation’s federal prosecutors to be aggressive when charging violent demonstrators with crimes, including potentially prosecuting them for plotting to overthrow the U.S. government, people familiar with the conversation said. In a conference call with U.S. attorneys across the country last week, Mr. Barr warned that sometimes violent demonstrations across the U.S. could worsen as the November presidential election approaches. He encouraged the prosecutors to seek a number federal charges, including under a rarely used sedition law, even when state charges could apply."

Barr also told John Kass at the Chicago Tribune that "There’s no more secret vote with mail-in vote. A secret vote prevents selling and buying votes. So now we’re back in the business of selling and buying votes. Capricious distribution of ballots means (ballot) harvesting, undue influence, outright coercion, paying off a postman, here’s a few hundred dollars, give me some of your ballots. You know liberals project. All this bullshit about how the president is going to stay in office and seize power? I’ve never heard of any of that crap. I mean, I’m the attorney general. I would think I would have heard about it. They are projecting. They are creating an incendiary situation where there will be loss of confidence in the vote. Someone will say the president just won Nevada. 'Oh, wait a minute! We just discovered 100,000 ballots! Every vote will be counted!' Yeah, but we don’t know where these freaking votes came from." What a crime fighter!!

Prohibited Acts by Nancy Ohanian


Except when it comes to... crime. Yesterday Pam Martens and Russ Martens asked at Wall Street On Parade What Happened to the Criminal Case against Goldman Sachs at Barr’s Justice Department? Is Barr a criminal himself? Anyone who even scratches the surface can have here no doubt about it. Many members of the Trump Regime need to be tried and sentenced to very long terms in prison-- and no one who's name isn't Trump (or Kushner) more so than Barr.
On December 6 of last year, four reporters at Bloomberg News signaled that the U.S. Department of Justice was close to a settlement of its criminal investigation of Goldman Sachs in the 1MDB matter. The reporters wrote as follows:
“The Justice Department and other federal agencies, in internal discussions held in recent weeks, have weighed seeking penalties between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, the people said. That’s less than what some analysts have signaled Goldman might have to pay. While a settlement could be announced as soon as next month, the terms could change before a deal is finalized…”
The terms, indeed, seem to have changed. It’s now more than 9 months since that article was published and there hasn’t been a peep out of the Justice Department about criminal charges against Goldman Sachs. According to the Bloomberg report, Barr has “directly immersed himself in the case.”

Both Barr and the Deputy Attorney General, Jeffrey Rosen, hail from Kirkland & Ellis, one of the primary law firms representing Goldman in the matter. Barr was “Of Counsel” to Kirkland while Rosen worked at the law firm for 29 years.

1MDB is a sovereign wealth fund in Malaysia. Goldman raised over $6 billion in bond offerings for the fund. According to the Justice Department, $4.5 billion of that was “misappropriated” and used “to fund the co-conspirators’ lavish lifestyles, including purchases of artwork and jewelry, the acquisition of luxury real estate and luxury yachts, the payment of gambling expenses, and the hiring of musicians and celebrities to attend parties.” Bribes and kickbacks were also allegedly made. Goldman made more than $600 million in fees from the bond offerings.

In July, the Malaysian government settled the case against Goldman Sachs for $3.9 billion. Another law firm representing Goldman Sachs is Sullivan & Cromwell. On June 19, Barr released a statement announcing that Geoffrey Berman, the U.S. Attorney (i.e. top federal prosecutor) for the Southern District of New York (where Goldman Sachs is headquartered), would be “stepping down.” Barr said President Trump would be naming Jay Clayton, the sitting chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, to fill the slot. Clayton hails from Sullivan & Cromwell.

The problem was, Berman had not agreed to “step down”; he said so publicly, and was, in reality, being ousted by Barr in the midst of numerous key criminal cases being handled by his office.

The fallout resulted in 65 professors and faculty from Barr’s alma mater, George Washington University Law School, releasing a letter the following week stating that Barr’s actions “have undermined the rule of law, breached constitutional norms, and damaged the integrity and traditional independence of his office and of the Department of Justice.”

On the same day that letter was released, June 23, the New York City Bar Association sent a letter to leaders in the House and Senate calling for Barr to resign. The letter, which included the signature of the President of the Board of Governors of the National Bar Association, Alfreda Robinson, said that Barr’s actions “form an overwhelming public impression of an Attorney General whose primary loyalty is to the President who appointed him, not to the American public or the rule of law.”

There is little likelihood that Clayton will be confirmed by the Senate for the post. Both Senators from New York, Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, have said they will not give the greenlight to Clayton’s nomination. Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has said he will not move Clayton’s nomination forward without the approval of those two Senators, following a longstanding policy of the Judiciary Committee.

That’s welcome news. As we previously reported, Sullivan & Cromwell was involved in making some of the luxury purchases on behalf of the alleged looters of 1MDB, according to the U.S. Department of Justice.

Two of Goldman’s senior bankers, Ng Chong Hwa (a/k/a Roger Ng) and Timothy Leissner, have already been indicted for “conspiring to launder billions of dollars embezzled from 1MDB,” and “paying bribes to various Malaysian and Abu Dhabi officials.” Leissner pleaded guilty in the matter. Roger Ng’s trial has been delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The U.S. Attorney’s office that prosecuted the case against the Goldman Sachs’ bankers is the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York. Quietly, on the eve of the July 4th weekend, Barr also removed the U.S. Attorney in that office-- Richard Donoghue. He is to become the Deputy to the Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen at Main Justice.

Rather than allowing the second in command of the Eastern District to take over, as Geoffrey Berman had demanded of Barr in the Southern District of New York matter, Barr announced on July 10 that Seth DuCharme, who had been working at Main Justice, would become Acting U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York office. DuCharme was sworn in the same day that Barr made the announcement.

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Thursday, May 07, 2020

What's Wall Street Saying About The Pandemic Now?

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The Goldman Sachs chief investment officer, Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, sent out guidance for the firms investors called "The First Wave Crests, and there were some interesting insights you might find useful. He noted, correctly that "the first wave of daily new COVID-19 infections and fatalities has crested in many of the heavily impacted countries, such as Spain, Italy, Germany and France as well as heavily hit U.S. states, such as New York. On both a global basis and in the U.S., in aggregate, the pace of new infections has plateaued and the pace of daily fatalities has clearly crested. The weekly rate of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations has also decreased in the U.S. The decrease in daily new infections and fatalities has been due to the extensive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) that were put in place, including all social-distancing measures that range from shelter-in-place to school closures, to banning of public gatherings, to closing select businesses, such as restaurants, bars, and theatres, and to individual NPIs, such as handwashing and wearing masks. As the first wave has started to crest and the economic cost of such NPIs continues to rise, the question of reopening economies has become the main focus of most policy makers."

What he didn't mention is that in states where there are low rates of non-pharmaceutical interventions, infection rates are spiking-- Nebraska, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Iowa, the Dakotas, Arizona, Tennessee, Colorado, and several others. The U.S. will be dealing with this long after Spain and Italy are finished. Also, it is just getting going in some countries likely to have bad outcomes, like the U.K., Turkey, Brazil and Russia. But his report is to examine the next steps recommended by policy experts in a phased-in reopening of the U.S. economy and he's considering these questions:
What are the recommended triggers for re-opening and have they been met? We will review the list of key triggers but also note that not all triggers have been met across most countries and U.S. states that have begun the process of re-opening.
Are additional waves inevitable and are there any insights into the size and timing of the next waves? As Dr. Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) highlighted on our April 14th client call on therapies and vaccines, he “would anticipate continued waves of infection” and a larger second wave would be a certainty in the absence of careful isolation and containment of new infections. Dr. Mark McClellan, Director of the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy at Duke University and former Commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, echoed these concerns on our April 30th client call on re-opening the economy and managing the risks of additional waves, stating that a bigger wave in the fall “is definitely a real concern and one that we should prepare for.”
Equity markets have rallied strongly from their March troughs: the S&P 500 is up 26.5%, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 22.7%, Japan’s Topix is up 15.8%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 20.9%. Do current market levels reflect only the good news about the first wave cresting or do they still reflect some of the uncertainties regarding additional smaller waves and the potential for a larger second wave in the fall? Similar to this pandemic, there are a lot of things we do not know with certainty. VIX, a measure of expected market volatility, stands at about 40, substantially below the March 18th high of 85 but still more than 2.7 times higher than the levels prior to the pandemic. Such a relatively high level indicates that financial market participants expect volatility to remain elevated and is thus consistent with some expectation for additional virus waves, in our view. However, we don’t think a large second wave in the fall is priced in at this time, given that market participants expect some success on the development of therapies by the fall, some glimmers of hope with respect to a vaccine, and also anticipate that better tools to monitor and contain any emerging clusters of infections will be put in place.
Economic Update

There were four significant developments on the U.S. economic and policy fronts.

First, new jobless claims have been steadily declining, implying the vast majority of employment terminations have already occurred...[C]umulative new jobless claims stand at over 30 million since the pandemic started to impact unemployment claims on March 13th. David Mericle, Goldman Sachs’ Chief US economist, expects US3 unemployment to reach 15%; however, he points out that U3 does not reflect the true level of unemployment because many terminated workers will not be seeking work in this pandemic. He suggests also considering the broader U6 level, which he expects to reach 29%.

Second, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate of the first-quarter 2020 GDP at -4.8%. The Goldman Sachs Economics Research team expects the final reported GDP change for the first quarter to be -7.7%, driven by a significant drop in consumption across areas ranging from non-COVID-19 healthcare services to travel and leisure, and to hospitality services. On our April 24th client call on real estate, Alan Kava-- co-head of the Merchant Banking Division Real Estate Group in the Americas-- highlighted hotels as one of the hardest-hit sectors of the real-estate market along with malls and shopping centers, as extensive NPIs have halted most non-e-commerce retail and most travel.

Third, on April 24th, Congress enacted an additional $484 billion in fiscal support-- equivalent to 2.1% of GDP-- for small-business lending and fiscal assistance for hospitals. The three and half phases of the fiscal stimulus packages to date total $2.5 trillion, or 12.1% of GDP. Alec Phillips, Goldman Sachs Chief Political Economist, expects another $550 billion-- equivalent to 2.5% of GDP-- before the end of 2020, of which about $200 billion will be allocated to state governments and the rest to an extension of expanded unemployment benefits. As shown in Exhibit 8, the US policy response as a percentage of GDP dwarfs that of other countries and regions (Euro area), even after adjusting for automatic stabilizers, which include unemployment insurance and other income-related benefits, particularly in Europe.

Fourth, on April 29th, the Federal Reserve issued a statement after the FOMC meeting and Chairman Powell hosted a virtual press conference. He confirmed that the federal funds rate target range would be held at zero to 0.25% until their dual objectives of full employment and price stability have been achieved. He also stated that the Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the economy: “use these powers forcefully, proactively, and aggressively until we are confident that we are solidly on the road to recovery.”

The Path to Re-Opening

Several countries and a handful of U.S. states have started to re-open their economies... [A]ll the non-U.S. developed economies that are re-opening are doing so in phases and... the pace of daily new infections in all these countries is on the decline at this time.

In the U.S., at least six states have started re-opening their economies, as shown in Exhibit 11, and several others are developing plans for re-opening. The White House provided general guidelines for re-opening on April 16th and many institutions have developed similar guidelines.




To better inform our clients about the guidelines required for a successful phased in re-opening of different economies across the US and to provide an assessment of where we are in meeting those guidelines, we hosted a call on April 30th with three COVID-19 medical experts: Dr. Borio and Dr. McLellan, referenced above, and Dr. Florian Krammer, Professor of Vaccinology at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, whose lab was the first in the US to develop a serological test to measure the presence and level of COVID-19 neutralizing antibodies.

Dr. McClellan and his co-authors published a report on March 29th for the American Enterprise Institute titled “National Coronavirus Response: A Road Map to Reopening.” The authors suggest 4 triggers to move from Phase 1 of the pandemic, which is slowing the spread, to Phase 2, which is state-by-state re-opening:
Sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
Hospitals are safely able to treat all patients without resorting to crisis standards of care,
Ability to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms,
Active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.

Of the six states listed above, Dr. McClellan stated that none meet all four criteria-- some states meet some of the criteria such as having sufficient hospital capacity to accommodate an increase in COVID-19 cases.





Testing

The biggest shortcoming in meeting the triggers is testing... [T]he U.S. is currently conducting about 1.6 million tests per week. There has been a wide range of recommendations for the right level of testing as the U.S. economy re-opens. Dr. McClellan suggested 4-5 million per week on our call. The Harvard Global Health Institute has suggested 3.8 million tests per week, and the Rockefeller Foundation has a range of 3 million to 30 million per week.

Testing is needed to quickly identify who may be infected so that they can be isolated and their contacts traced and also tested and self-quarantined as needed. According to Dr. McClellan, Massachusetts and Texas are training “contact tracers” and leveraging phone apps to monitor infected individuals and trace their contacts, but all states are not yet ready for the level of monitoring and contact tracing that is needed.

Investment Implications

With the S&P 500 26.5% above its March low and about 6% away from the mid-point of our year-end target range of 2950–3050, clients are asking several key questions:

1.    For clients who are fully invested, does it still make sense to stay fully invested? We believe so.

2.    For clients who have un-invested cash and have not yet fully deployed that cash towards equities at their strategic allocation target, should they wait for a meaningful pull-back or follow our standard recommendation of averaging in over time? We suggest averaging in per our standard recommendation and accelerate the process if market pullbacks provide such an opportunity.

These questions are particularly pressing now as governments around the world plan to re-open their economies while managing the risks of additional waves.

While we no longer see the clear asymmetry to S&P 500 returns that justified our tactical overweight in March, there are several reasons why we continue to recommend that clients maintain, or build toward, their strategic allocation to equities:

Attractive Multi-Year Returns: The current recession is likely to be followed by a multi-year economic expansion. In fact, economic expansions have been getting longer in recent decades, with the last four averaging about 9 years. As seen in Exhibit 15, cumulative equity returns have benefited from these elongated periods of expanding GDP and rising corporate earnings.

Given the decline in equities year-to-date as well as the removal of the recession risk discount we had previously applied to our forecasts (since we are now in a recession), we estimate annualized S&P 500 returns of 6–8% over the next 5 years. This is materially better than the 3% we estimated at the outset of 2020 and likely to exceed the returns of cash and bonds, especially with current bond yields below 1%.

Scope for S&P 500 Upside: While investors are squarely focused on S&P 500 downside, there are some upside risks as well. Our year-end S&P 500 target range assumes 10-year Treasury yields-- which are a proxy for the discount rate for future equity cash flows-- double from their current 0.62% to 1.25% by the end of 2020. If they instead ended the year at 0.75%, where forward contracts are priced today, that would support an S&P 500 target closer to 3300.

Recent technical milestones support a similar upward bias. Both the S&P 500 and the NYSE cumulative advance/decline line-- a breadth measure that accumulates the number of stocks advancing less those declining on the NYSE each day-- retraced 60% of their bear market declines at last week’s high. As seen in Exhibit 16, S&P 500 returns were significantly higher than unconditional after these triggers in the past. Taken at face value, these signals would imply S&P 500 levels between 3269 and 3344 at year-end.

Of course, achieving even our base case year-end target is dependent on a recovery in corporate earnings. While the 38% profit growth we expect next year may seem optimistic, this would still leave earnings only 4% higher than their 2019 level. Such a quick recovery is consistent with past recessions, where the median episode saw earnings recapture their previous peak about four quarters after bottoming. Recall earnings grew 40% in 2010-- just one year after the financial crisis ended-- despite a still elevated 9–10% unemployment rate at the time.

Lower Odds of Undercutting the March Lows: In our March 22nd piece entitled “A Light at the End of the Tunnel,” we noted that the S&P 500 could trade as low as 1950–2234, but accorded much higher odds (two-thirds) to it reaching 3000 by year-end. On April 12th, we further raised the odds of reaching 3000 to 75–80%, implying only 20–25% likelihood of the downside scenario. Today, we think the odds of revisiting those levels are closer to 10%.

Several factors underpin this view.

First, forward-looking equity markets have bottomed 1-2 months prior to the peak in unemployment claims in 6 of the last 7 recessions. The one exception, in 1970, saw the S&P 500 bottom a month after the peak in claims. As seen in Exhibit 7 above, it seems likely that weekly unemployment claims peaked about a month ago, on March 28th.

Second, the market had already seen its final low in all post-WWII bear markets by the time it had retraced 60% of its peak-to-trough decline, which the S&P 500 accomplished last week.

Third, the odds of the S&P 500 declining the 23% necessary to retest the lows between now and year-end have only been 6% over comparable time periods in the past.

Finally, the significant equity sales by institutional investors that exacerbated the March downdraft are highly unlikely to be repeated given today’s scant positioning. For example, systematic CTA’s are now short more than $30 billion worth of global equities after having been long $200 billion at the start of the year, risk-parity funds have the lowest exposure in 3 years and volatility-control funds have their lowest exposure in 9 years.

Of course, lower odds of revisiting the March lows does not preclude continued volatility and thus periodic pullbacks of 5–10%, especially considering ongoing uncertainty about the impact of second virus waves as the economy is reopened. Yet such dips are typical even in strongly advancing markets and would not, on their own, undermine our view. As we highlighted earlier, the CBOE VIX Index still stands close to 40, a level consistent with the S&P 500 moving more than 2% per day.

However, there is one significant caveat to our investment views: if there is a much larger second wave of new daily infections and fatalities in the US and in other parts of the world in the fall of 2020, as a result of which comprehensive aggressive NPI’s have to be reinstated, the odds of revisiting the March equity lows would increase.

...[W]e expect the combination of some progress on therapies beyond remdesivir, a better-prepared hospital system with adequate ICU beds, personal protective equipment, ventilators, and other necessary equipment, much more extensive effective testing and contact tracing, and a better informed public that maintains some level of social distancing and follows NPI’s such as handwashing and use of masks will substantially reduce the likelihood of such a wave.





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Sunday, December 01, 2019

Most Of The Democratic Candidates For President Are Part Of The Problem, Not Part Of The Solution

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It's worth watching this Bernie endorsement video by Illinois state Senator Robert Peters, the former political director of Reclaim Chicago and the young man who now represents the Chicago district Obama used to represent. Biden has big lists of worthless politicians who have been endorsing him, generally mean nd women whose endorsement would want to make people run in the opposite direction. Listen to Peters explain why he's backing Bernie.

Yesterday, the Washington Post published an interesting and unexpected bit of reporting by Tory Newmyer, Goldman Sachs seeks to rebrand as wealth takes center stage in the Democratic presidential race. Wall Street's most notorious banksters has been sponsoring presidential candidate forums in Iowa and New Hampshire. "Goldman executives," wrote Newmyer, "say their purpose is to elevate small-business concerns in the contest. Small businesses employ nearly half the private workforce, and Goldman argues they lack a voice in Washington and have received scant attention on the campaign trail-- a realization executives say they reached after shepherding more than 9,100 through the entrepreneurship program they launched nearly a decade ago. But the effort is also a subtle rebranding exercise by a firm at the center of a knockdown political fight between Wall Street and Main Street. For populists such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the banking giant remains a totem of runaway Wall Street greed that helped precipitate the 2008 financial crisis and continues to reap a windfall under the Trump administration. For Wall Street titans and the uber-rich, liberal Democratic candidates are villainizing their success and threatening it with their economic plans."

Proposals by Bernie and Elizabeth are frightening-- and inciting-- the banksters and other enemies of working families. Right-of-center Democrats like Bloomberg, Mayo Pete and Status Quo Joe are sticking up for them as best they can, but Democratic-- and independent-- voters keep telling pollsters they prefer policies that force the super-rich to pay their fair share of taxes. The woman most rumored to be a Biden running mate, Rhode Island neo-liberal governor, Gina Raimondo-- also the least popular governor in the country and widely considered a corrupt Wall Street shill worked with Goldman on launching the forums. A truly disgusting person, Raimondo is also trying to suck up to Bloomberg and said she thinks Goldman’s effort "comes from a genuine place."
Democratic voters may be a tougher sell. They believe Wall Street hurts the economy more than it helps it, by a margin of 46 percent to 41 percent, according to a January poll by the Pew Research Center. More than 8 in 10 Democrats think the political system mainly benefits those in power, a Washington Post-ABC News survey in April found. And there is widespread voter concern about the industry’s political influence, with 69 percent saying financial services interests wield too much power in Washington, according to a 2018 Kaiser Family Foundation poll.

...[T]he firm also uses the events as opportunities to strengthen its ties to the candidates, sending lobbyists from its Washington office to greet them. For the Harris event, it was Joyce Brayboy, who was chief of staff to former congressman Mel Watt (D-NC), who has spent over a decade pressing the firm’s interests on Capitol Hill. The participants in the forums are, predictably, the conservative candidates: StatusQuoJoe, Michael Bennet, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, and Mayo Pete, all of whom have nurtured warm and corrupt relations with the bankster community. Bernie and Elizabeth are not participating. Mike Casca, a spokesman for Bernie's campaign: "This is exactly what Sen. Sanders means when he talks about a corrupt political system."


Is this message going to get through to Republicans? Probably not. As far as I can tell, most of them, empowered by Trump and Fox to let their Nazi flags fly, have utterly lost their minds.




When historians and political scientists are polled, the 3 top presidents of all time are almost always Lincoln, Washington and FDR-- in that order. Trump is almost invariably rated as the worst president ever. When the general public is polled, the responses are more varied. A recent poll by Ranker, in which over 840,000 people participated, the top presidents came out like this:
George Washington
Abraham Lincoln
Thomas Jefferson
JFK
James Madison
Teddy Roosevelt
FDR
A new poll by YouGov for The Economist asked "which president was better?" They started with a match-up between Lincoln, generally considered the best president and Trump, generally considered the worst president. The general public picked Lincoln 75-25%. Among Democrats, it was 94% Lincoln and 6% Trump. Among independent voters it was 78% Lincoln and 22% Trump. And among Republicans? 75% Trump and 25% Lincoln.





A plurality of Republicans consider Trump the greatest president in history. (82% of Democrats and 48% of independents consider him the worst.) Republicans say Trump is better than any president polled other than Reagan:
George W. Bush- Trump 71%
George H. W. Bush- Trump 71%
Ronald Reagan- Trump 41%
Jerry Ford- Trump 82%
Richard Nixon- Trump 86%
Dwight Eisenhower- Trump 65%
Friday, author and historian Douglas Brinkley was on CNN talking about Trump's polling numbers. He told viewers that although 50% of Americans now want to see Trump impeached and removed from office, he expects that number to rise as the impeachment hearings continue to be televised and in the headlines. "Trump's heading right into the 2020 election and the Democrats are going to pound Trump on being a kind of fake president, somebody who's subpar in his behavior and who's been running the most corrupt administration since Warren Harding."




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Monday, September 18, 2017

No One In History Has Ever Presided Over A Swamp Like Trump's Swamp-- The Swampiest Swamp That Will Forever Define Swamps

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Yesterday, during the tweet storm that is her life, Ann Coulter reminded the lunatics who follow her online that "The 1 fact (before DACA betrayal) that made die-hard Trump voters hate him: White House full of Goldman Sachs bankers," pointing to the must read essay by Gary Rivlin and Michael Hudson, Government By Goldman. She must really hate Trump by throwing this piece of red meat out to the fan boys she and Trump share. "Gary Cohn is giving Golman Sachs everything it ever wanted for the Trump Administration" is the best description of how Trump has dealt with his draining the swamp campaign promise.



It was Kushner-in-law who introduced Trumpanzee to Cohn, then still president of Goldman Sachs, at the end of November, an imperious, insecure man, like Trump, who is "at heart a salesman." They wrote how "Goldman Sachs had been a favorite cudgel for candidate Trump-- the symbol of a government that favors Wall Street over its citizenry. Trump proclaimed that Hillary Clinton was in the firm’s pockets, as was Ted Cruz. It was Goldman Sachs that Trump singled out when he railed against a system rigged in favor of the global elite-- one that 'robbed our working class, stripped our country of wealth, and put money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities.' Cohn, as president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs, had been at the heart of it all. Aggressive and relentless, a former aluminum siding salesman and commodities broker with a nose for making money, Cohn had turned Goldman’s sleepy home loan unit into what a Senate staffer called 'one of the largest mortgage trading desks in the world.' There, he aggressively pushed his sales team to sell mortgage-backed securities to unaware investors even as he watched over 'the big short,' Goldman’s decision to bet billions of dollars that the market would collapse."
On the campaign trail, Trump had spoken often about the importance of investing in infrastructure. Yet the president-elect had apparently failed to appreciate that the government would need to come up with hundreds of billions of dollars to fund his plans. Cohn, brash and bold, wired to attack any moneymaking opportunity, pitched a fix that would put Wall Street firms at the center: Private-industry partners could help infrastructure get fixed, saving the federal government from going deeper into debt. The way the moment was captured by the New York Times, among other publications, Trump was dumbfounded. “Is this true?” he asked. Was a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan likely to increase the deficit by a trillion dollars? Confronted by nodding heads, an unhappy president-elect said, “Why did I have to wait to have this guy tell me?”

Within two weeks, the transition team announced that Cohn would take over as director of the president’s National Economic Council.

...The conflicts between the two men were striking. Cohn ran a giant investment bank with offices in financial capitals around the globe, one deeply committed to a world with few economic borders. Trump’s nationalist campaign contradicted everything Goldman Sachs and its top executives represented on the global stage.

Trump raged against “offshoring” by American companies during the 2016 campaign. He even threatened “retribution,”­ a 35 percent tariff on any goods imported into the United States by a company that had moved jobs overseas. But Cohn laid out Goldman’s very different view of offshoring at an investor conference in Naples, Florida, in November. There, Cohn explained unapologetically that Goldman had offshored its back-office staff, including payroll and IT, to Bangalore, India, now home to the firm’s largest office outside New York City: “We hire people there because they work for cents on the dollar versus what people work for in the United States.”

Candidate Trump promised to create millions of new jobs, vowing to be “the greatest jobs president that God ever created.” Cohn, as Goldman Sachs’s president and COO, oversaw the firm’s mergers and acquisitions business that had, over the previous three years, led to the loss of at least 22,000 U.S. jobs, according to a study by two advocacy groups. Early in his candidacy, Trump described as “disgusting” Pfizer’s decision to buy a smaller Irish competitor in order to execute a “corporate inversion,” a maneuver in which a U.S. company moves its headquarters overseas to reduce its tax burden. The Pfizer deal ultimately fell through. But in 2016, in the heat of the campaign, Goldman advised on a megadeal that saw Johnson Controls, a Fortune 500 company based in Milwaukee, buy the Ireland-based Tyco International with the same goal. A few months later, with Goldman’s help, Johnson Controls had executed its inversion.

With Cohn’s appointment, Trump now had three Goldman Sachs alums in top positions inside his administration: Steve Bannon, who was a vice president at Goldman when he left the firm in 1990, as chief strategist, and Steve Mnuchin, who had spent 17 years at Goldman, as Treasury secretary. And there were more to come. A few weeks later, another Goldman partner, Dina Powell, joined the White House as a senior counselor for economic initiatives. Goldman was a longtime client of Jay Clayton, Trump’s choice to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission; Clayton had represented Goldman after the 2008 financial crisis, and his wife Gretchen worked there as a wealth management adviser. And there was the brief, colorful tenure of Anthony Scaramucci as White House communications director: Scaramucci had been a vice president at Goldman Sachs before leaving to co-found his own investment company.

Even before Scaramucci, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) had joked that enough Goldman alum were working for the Trump administration to open a branch office in the White House.

“There was a devastating financial crisis just over eight years ago,” Warren said. “Goldman Sachs was at the heart of that crisis. The idea that the president is now going to turn over the country’s economic policy to a senior Goldman executive turns my stomach.” Prior administrations often had one or two people from Goldman serving in top positions. George W. Bush at one point had three. At its peak, the Trump administration effectively had six.

...Cohn shared the podium with fellow Goldman alum Mnuchin (the two made partner there the same year) when the administration unveiled its new tax plan, one that, if the past is prelude, had the potential to save Goldman more than $1 billion a year in corporate taxes. The president had promised to “do a number” on financial reforms implemented after the 2008 subprime crisis, including one that threatened to cost Goldman several billion dollars a year in revenues. Under Cohn, the administration has introduced new rules easing initial public offerings — a Goldman Sachs specialty dating back to the start of the last century, when the firm handled the IPOs of Sears, Roebuck; F. W. Woolworth; and Studebaker. As Trump’s top economic policy adviser, Cohn can exert influence over regulatory agencies that have shaken billions in penalties and settlements out of Goldman Sachs in recent years. And his former colleagues inside Goldman’s Public Sector and Infrastructure group likely appreciate the Trump administration’s infrastructure plan, which is more or less exactly as Cohn first pitched it inside Trump Tower in November.

“It’s hard to see how Gary Cohn recusing himself would solve a lot of these conflicts because nearly every major decision of his job would have a significant impact, likely billions of dollars, on Goldman Sachs and its executives,” said Tyler Gellasch, an attorney and former Senate staffer who helped draft Dodd-Frank, the landmark financial reform law passed in the wake of the financial meltdown. “Goldman touches nearly every aspect of the economy, from selling U.S. treasuries to helping companies go public, and the National Economic Council advises on all of that.”

In the wake of last month’s white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, Cohn confessed to the Financial Times that he has “come under enormous pressure both to resign and to remain.” But the man who the Washington Post has dubbed Trump’s “moderate voice” declared that neo-Nazis would not force “this Jew” to leave his job. “As a patriotic American, I am reluctant to leave my post as director of the National Economic Council,” Cohn told FT. “I feel a duty to fulfill my commitment to work on behalf of the American people.”

Or at least a few of them. The Trump economic agenda, it turns out, is largely the Goldman agenda, one with the potential to deliver any number of gifts to the firm that made Cohn colossally rich. If Cohn stays, it will be to pursue an agenda of aggressive financial deregulation and massive corporate tax cuts-- he seeks to slash rates by 57 percent-- that would dramatically increase profits for large financial players like Goldman. It is an agenda as radical in its scope and impact as Bannon’s was.

...While Trump’s father was a wealthy real estate developer, Cohn’s father was an electrician. When Trump sought to get into the casino business, his father loaned him $14 million. When Cohn couldn’t find a job after graduating from college, all his father could do was find him one selling aluminum siding. While Trump has the instincts of a reality show producer and an eye for spectacle, Cohn prefers to operate in the shadows.

But they likely recognize much of themselves in the other. Both Cohn and Trump are alpha males-- men of action unlikely to be found holed up in an office reading through stacks of policy reports. In fact, neither seems to be much of a reader. Cohn told Gladwell it would take him roughly six hours to read just 22 pages; he ended his time with the author by wishing him luck on “your book I’m not going to read.” Both have a transactional view of politics. Trump switched his voter registration between Democratic, Republican, and independent seven times between 1999 and 2012. In the 2000s, his foundation gave $100,000 to the Clinton Foundation, and he contributed $4,700 to Hillary Clinton’s senatorial campaigns. He even bought and refurbished a golf course in Westchester County a few miles from the Clinton home, in part, Trump once admitted, to ingratiate himself with the Clintons. Cohn is a registered Democrat who has given at least $275,000 to Democrats over the years, including to the campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but also around $250,000 to Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

There are also striking similarities in their business histories. Both have a knack for weathering scandals and setbacks and coming out on top. Trump has filed for bankruptcy four times, started a long list of failed businesses (casinos, an airline, a football team, a steak company), but managed, through his best-selling books and highly rated reality TV show, to recast himself as the world’s greatest businessman. During Cohn’s tenure as president, Goldman Sachs faced lawsuits and federal investigations that resulted in $9 billion in fines for misconduct in the run-up to the subprime meltdown. Goldman not only survived but thrived, posting record profits-- and Cohn was rewarded with handsome bonuses and a position at the top of the new administration.

...The emergence of “Bad Goldman”-- and Cohn’s central role in that drama-- is really the story of the rise of the traders inside the firm. “As trading came to be a bigger part of Wall Street, I noticed that the vision changed,” said Robert Kaplan, a former Goldman Sachs vice chairman, who left in 2006 after working at the firm for 23 years. “The leaders were saying the same words, but they started to change incentives away from the value-added vision and tilt more to making money first. If making money is your vision, what lengths will you not go?”

At the height of the dot-com years, a debate raged within the firm. The firm underwrote dozens of technology IPOs, including Microsoft and Yahoo, in the 1980s and 1990s, minting an untold number of multimillionaires and the occasional billionaire. Some of the companies they were bringing public generated no profits at all, while Goldman was generating up to $3 billion in profits a year. It seemed inevitable that some within Goldman Sachs began to dream of jettisoning the Goldman’s century-old partnership structure and taking their firm public, too. Jon Corzine was running the firm then-- he would later go into politics in the Goldman tradition, first as a U.S. senator and then as New Jersey governor-- and was four-square in favor of going public. Corzine’s second in command, Henry Paulson-- who would go on to serve as Treasury secretary-- was against the idea. But Corzine ordered up a study that supported his view that remaining private stifled Goldman’s competitive opportunities and promoted Paulson to co-senior partner. Paulson soon got on board. In May 1999, Goldman sold $3.7 billion worth of shares in the company. At the end of the first day of trading, Corzine’s and Paulson’s stakes in the firm were each worth $205 million. Cohn’s and Mnuchin’s shares were each worth $112 million. And Blankfein ended up with $168 million in company stock.

Like any publicly traded company, there would now be pressure on Goldman Sachs to make its quarterly numbers and “maximize shareholder value.” Discarding the partner model also meant the loss of a valuable restraint on risk-taking and bad behavior. Under the old system, any losses or fines came out of the partners’ pockets. In the early 1990s, for example, the firm was involved in transactions with Robert Maxwell, a London-based media mogul who was accused of stealing hundreds of millions of pounds from his companies’ pension funds. The $253 million that Goldman Sachs paid to settle lawsuits brought by pension funds over its involvement was split among the firm’s 84 limited partners. Now any losses are paid by a publicly traded entity owned by shareholders, with no direct financial liability for the decision-makers themselves. In theory, Goldman could claw back bonuses in response to executives’ bad behavior. But in 2016, when Goldman paid over $5 billion to settle charges brought by the Justice Department that the firm misled customers in the sale of a subprime mortgage product during Cohn’s time overseeing that unit, the Goldman board declined to dock Cohn’s pay. Instead, the company awarded him a $5.5 million cash bonus and another $12.6 million in company stock.

As Blankfein moved up the corporate hierarchy, Cohn rose along with him. When Blankfein was made vice chairman in charge of the firm’s multibillion-dollar global commodities business and its equities division, Cohn took over as co-head of FICC, Blankfein’s previous position. That meant Cohn was overseeing not just J. Aron and the firm’s commodities business, but also its currency trades and bond sales. By the start of 2004, Blankfein was promoted to president and COO, and Cohn was named co-head of global securities. At that point, Cohn had authority over the mortgage-trading desk. Under Cohn, the firm aggressively moved into the subprime mortgage market, using Goldman’s own money and that of its customers to help stoke the housing bubble.


Goldman was already enabling subprime predators, such as Ameriquest and New Century Financial, by providing them with the cash infusions they needed to scale up their lending to individual home buyers. Cohn would steer the firm deeper into the subprime frenzy by setting up Goldman as a patron of some of these same mortgage originators. During his tenure, Goldman snapped up loans from New Century, Countrywide, and other notorious mortgage originators and bundled them into deals with opaque names, such as ABACUS and GSAMP. Under Cohn’s watchful eye, Goldman’s brokers then funneled slices to customers they sold on the wisdom of holding mortgage-backed securities in their portfolios.

One such creation, GSAA Home Equity Trust 2006-2, illustrates Goldman’s disregard for the quality of loans it was buying and packaging into security deals. Created in early 2006, the investment vehicle was made up of more than $1 billion in home loans Goldman had bought from Ameriquest, one of the nation’s largest and most aggressive subprime lenders. By that point, the lender already had set aside $325 million to settle a probe by attorneys general and banking regulators in 49 states, who accused Ameriquest of misleading thousands of borrowers about the costs of their loans and falsifying home appraisals and other key documents. Yet GSAA Home Equity Trust 2006-2 was filled with Ameriquest loans made to more than 3,000 homeowners in Arizona, Illinois, Florida, and elsewhere. By the end of 2008, 65 percent of the roughly 1,400 borrowers whose loans remained in the deal were in default, had filed for bankruptcy, or had been targeted for foreclosure.

In just three years, Goldman Sachs had increased its trading volume by a factor of 50, which the Wall Street Journal attributed to “Cohn’s successful push to rev up risk-taking and use of Goldman’s own capital to make a profit”-- what the industry calls proprietary trading, or prop trading. The 2010 Journal article quoted Justin Gmelich, then the firm’s mortgage chief, who said of Cohn, “He reshaped the culture of the mortgage department into more of a trading environment.” In 2005, with Cohn overseeing the firm’s home loan desk, Goldman underwrote $103 billion in mortgage-backed securities and other more esoteric products, such as collateralized debt obligations, which often were priced based on giant pools of home loans. The following year, the firm underwrote deals worth $131 billion.

In 2006, CEO Henry Paulson left the firm to join George W. Bush’s cabinet as Treasury secretary. Blankfein, Cohn’s mentor and friend, took Paulson’s place. By tradition, Blankfein, a trader, should have elevated someone from the investment banking side to serve as his No. 2, so both sides of the firm would be represented in the top leadership. Instead he named Cohn, his long-time loyalist, and Jon Winkelried, who also had history on the trading side, as co-presidents and co-COOs. Winkelried, who had started at Goldman eight years before Cohn, had probably earned the right to hold those titles by himself. But Cohn had the advantage of his relationship with the CEO. Blankfein and Cohn vacationed together in the Caribbean and Mexico, owned homes near each other in the Hamptons, and their children attended the same school. Winkelreid was out in two years. The bromance between his fellow No. 2 and the top boss may have proved too much.

With Blankfein and Cohn at the top, the transformation of Goldman Sachs was complete. By 2009, investment banking had shrunk to barely 10 percent of the firm’s revenues. Richard Marin, a former executive at Bear Stearns, a Goldman competitor that wouldn’t survive the mortgage meltdown, saw Cohn as “the root of the problem.” Explained Marin, “When you become arrogant in a trading sense, you begin to think that everybody’s a counterparty, not a customer, not a client. And as a counterparty, you’re allowed to rip their face off.”

...Goldman would not have suffered the reputational damage that it did-- or paid multiple billions in federal fines-- if the firm, anticipating the impending crisis, had merely shorted the housing market in the hopes of making billions. That is what investment banks do: spot ways to make money that others don’t see. The money managers and traders featured in the film The Big Short did the same-- and they were cast as brave contrarians. Yet unlike the investors featured in the film, Goldman had itself helped inflate the housing bubble-- buying tens of billions of dollars in subprime mortgages over the previous several years for bundling into bonds they sold to investors. And unlike these investors, Goldman’s people were not warning anyone who would listen about the disaster about to hit. As federal investigations found, the firm, which still claims “our clients’ interests always come first” as a core principle, failed to disclose that its top people saw disaster in the very products its salespeople were continuing to hawk.




Goldman still held billions of mortgages on its books in December 2006-- mortgages that Cohn and other Goldman executives suspected would soon be worth much less than the firm had paid for them. So, while Cohn was overseeing one team inside Goldman Sachs preoccupied with implementing the big short, he was in regular contact with others scrambling to offload its subprime inventory. One Goldman trader described the mortgage-backed securities they were selling as “shitty.” Another complained in an email that they were being asked to “distribute junk that nobody was dumb enough to take first time around.” A December 28 email from Fabrice “Fabulous Fab” Tourre, a Goldman vice president later convicted of fraud, instructed traders to focus on less astute, “buy and hold” investors rather than “sophisticated hedge funds” that “will be on the same side of the trade as we will.”

...Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi described [Goldman Sachs] as “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money,” a devastating moniker that followed Goldman into the business pages. After news leaked that the firm might pay its people a record $16.7 billion in bonuses in 2009, even President Barack Obama, for whom the firm had been a top campaign donor, began to turn against Goldman, telling 60 Minutes. “I did not run for office to be helping out a bunch of fat-cat bankers on Wall Street.”

“They’re still puzzled why is it that people are mad at the banks,” Obama said. “Well, let’s see. You guys are drawing down $10, $20 million bonuses after America went through the worst economic year that it’s gone through in decades, and you guys caused the problem.”

Goldman was also facing an onslaught of investigations and lawsuits over behavior that had helped precipitate the financial crisis. Class actions and other lawsuits filed by pension funds and other investors accused Goldman of abusing their trust, making “false and misleading statements,” and failing to conduct basic due diligence on the loans underlying the products it peddled. At least 25 of these suits named Cohn as a defendant.

...In the final report produced by the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Goldman Sachs was mentioned an extraordinary 2,495 times, and Gary Cohn 89 times. A Goldman Sachs representative declined to respond to queries on the record.

The investigations and fines were a blow to Goldman’s reputation and its bottom line, but the regulatory reforms being debated had the potential to threaten Goldman’s entire business model. Even before the 2008 crash, the firm’s lobbying spending had grown under Lloyd Blankfein and Cohn. By 2010, the year financial reforms were being drafted, Goldman spent $4.6 million for the services of 49 lobbyists. Their ranks included some of the most well-connected figures in Washington, including Democrat Richard Gephardt, a former House majority leader, and Republican Trent Lott, a former Senate majority leader, who had stepped down from the Senate two years earlier.

Despite all those lobbyists on the payroll, Goldman made its case primarily through proxies during the debate over financial reform. “The name Goldman Sachs was so radioactive it worked to their disadvantage to be tied to an issue,” said Marcus Stanley, then a staffer for Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and now policy director of Americans for Financial Reform. Instead, Goldman lobbied through industry groups.

Goldman’s people likely knew that all of Wall Street’s lobbying might could not stop the passage of the sprawling 2010 legislative package dubbed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Obama was putting his muscle behind reform-- “We simply cannot accept a system in which hedge funds or private equity firms inside banks can place huge, risky bets that are subsidized by taxpayers,” he said in one speech-- and the Democrats enjoyed majorities in both houses of Congress. “For Goldman Sachs, the battle was over the final language,” said Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets, a Washington, D.C., lobby group that pushes for tighter financial reforms. “That way they at least had a fighting chance in the next round, when everyone turned their attention to the regulators.”

There was a lot for Goldman Sachs to dislike about Dodd-Frank. There were small annoyances, such as “say on pay,” which ordered companies to give shareholders input on executive compensation, a source of potential embarrassment to a company that gave out $73 million in compensation for a single year’s work-- as Goldman paid Cohn in 2007. There were large annoyances, such as the requirement that financial institutions deemed too big to fail, like Goldman, create a wind-down plan in case of disaster. There were the measures that would interfere with Goldman’s core businesses, such as a provision instructing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regulate the trading of derivatives. And yet nothing mattered to Goldman quite like the Volcker Rule, which would protect banks’ solvency by limiting their freedom to make speculative trades with their own money. Unless Goldman could initiate what Stanley called the “complexity two-step”-- win a carve-out so a new rule wouldn’t interfere with legitimate business and then use that carve-out to render a rule toothless-- Volcker would slam the door shut on the entire direction in which Blankfein and Cohn had taken Goldman.

It was 5:30 a.m. on Friday, June 25, 2010, when a joint House-Senate conference committee approved the final language of Dodd-Frank. By Sunday, an industry attorney named Annette Nazareth-- a former top SEC official whose firm counts Goldman Sachs among its clients-- had already sent off a heavily annotated copy of the 848-page bill to colleagues at her old agency. It was just the first salvo in a lobbying juggernaut.

Within a few months, Cohn himself was in Washington to meet with a governor of the Federal Reserve, one of the key agencies charged with implementing Volcker. The visitors log at the CFTC, the agency Dodd-Frank put in charge of derivatives reform, shows that Cohn traveled to D.C. to personally meet with CFTC staffers at least six times between 2010 and 2016. Cohn also came to the capital for meetings at the SEC, another agency responsible for the Volcker Rule. There, he met with SEC chair Mary Jo White and other commissioners. “I seem to be in Washington every week trying to explain to them the unintended consequences of overregulation,” Cohn said in a talk he gave to business students at Sacred Heart University in 2015.

“Gary was the tip of the spear for Goldman to beat back regulatory reform,” said Kelleher, the financial reform lobbyist. “I used to pass him going into different agencies. They brought him in when they wanted the big gun to finish off, to kill the wounded.”

Democrats lost their majority in the House that November, and Goldman threw its weight behind the spate of Republican bills that followed, aimed at taking apart Dodd-Frank piece by piece. Goldman spent more than $4 million for the services of 45 lobbyists in 2011 and $3.5 million a year in 2012 and 2013. Its lobbying spending was nearly as high in the years after passage of Dodd-Frank as it was the year the bill was introduced.
Let's take a break for a second and look at a list. These are the 20 most corrupt Members of Congress still serving in the House, in order of how much they've taken from the banksters like Cohn and his firm, Bipartisan:
Paul Ryan (R-WI)- $10,955,550
Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)- $7,809,348
Ed Royce (R-CA)- $7,303,507
Pat Tiberi (R-OH)- $6,719,095
Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)- $6,609,567
Joe Crowley (New Dem-NY)- $6,491,559
Steny Hoyer (D-MD)- $6,094,848
Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)- $5,774,077
Jim Himes (New Dem-CT)- $5,773,452
Pete Sessions (R-TX)- $5,597,470
Nita Lowey (D-NY)- $4,953,475
Richard Neal (D-MA)- $4,895,121
Pete Roskam (R-IL)- $4,598,243
Steve Stivers (R-OH)- $4,560,427
Patrick McHenry (R-NC)- $4,443,742
Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)- $3,650,387
Erik Paulsen (R-MN)- $3,620,003
Ed Perlmutter (New Dem-CO)- $3,592,708
John Larson (New Dem-CT)- $3,570,930
Brad Sherman (New Dem-CA)- $3,529,853
Want to really drain the swamp? Take that list and throw those 20 crooks in prison and that will be the end of the swamp for at least a generation.
Goldman lobbyists dug in on a range of issues that would become top priorities for Republicans in the wake of Donald Trump’s electoral victory. Records from the Center for Responsive Politics show that Goldman lobbyists worked to promote corporate tax cuts, such as on the Tax Increase Prevention Act of 2014 and Senate legislation aimed at extending some $200 billion in tax cuts for individuals and businesses. Goldman lobbied for a bill to fund economically critical infrastructure projects, presumably on behalf of its Public Sector and Infrastructure group. Goldman had seven lobbyists working on the JOBS Act, which would make it easier for companies to go public, another bottom-line issue to a company that underwrote $27 billion in IPOs last year. In 2016, Goldman had eight lobbyists dedicated to the Financial CHOICE Act, which would have undone most of Dodd-Frank in one fell swoop-- a bill the House revived in April.

Yet defanging the Volcker Rule remained the firm’s top priority. Promoted by former Fed Chair Paul Volcker, the rule would prohibit banks from committing more than 3 percent of their core assets to in-house private equity and hedge funds in the business of buying up properties and businesses with the goal of selling them at a profit. One harbinger of the financial crisis had been the collapse in the summer of 2007 of a pair of Bear Stearns hedge funds that had invested heavily in subprime loans. That 3 percent cap would have had a big impact on Goldman, which maintained a separate private equity group and operated its own internal hedge funds. But it was the restrictions Volcker placed on proprietary trading that most threatened Goldman.

Prop trading was a profit center inside many large banks, but nowhere was it as critical as at Goldman. A 2011 report by one Wall Street analyst revealed that prop trading accounted for an 8 percent share of JPMorgan Chase’s annual revenues, 9 percent of Bank of America’s, and 27 percent of Morgan Stanley’s. But prop trading made up 48 percent of Goldman’s. By one estimate, the Volcker Rule could cost Goldman Sachs $3.7 billion in revenue a year.

When regulators finalized a new Volcker Rule in 2013, Better Markets declared it a “major defeat for Wall Street.” Yet the victory for reformers was precarious. “Just changing a few words could dramatically change the scope of the rule-- to the tune of billions of dollars for some firms,” said former Senate staffer Tyler Gellasch, who helped write the rule. Volcker gave banks until July 2015-- the five-year anniversary of Dodd-Frank-- to bring themselves into compliance. Yet apparently the Volcker Rule had been written for other financial institutions, not elite firms like Goldman Sachs. “Goldman Sachs has been on a shopping spree with its own money,” began a New York Times article in January 2015. The bank used its own funds to buy a mall in Utah, apartments in Spain, and a European ink company. Paul Volcker expressed disappointment that banks were still making big proprietary bets, as did the two senators most responsible for writing the rule into law. That June, Cohn appeared to reassure investors that Goldman would find a workaround. Speaking at an investor conference, he said Goldman was “transforming our equity investing activities to continue to meet client needs while complying with Volcker.”

Goldman had five years to prepare for some version of a Volcker Rule. Yet a loophole granted banks sufficient time to dispose of “illiquid assets” without causing undue harm-- a loophole that might even cover the assets Goldman had only recently purchased, despite the impending compliance deadline. The Fed nonetheless granted the firm additional time to sell illiquid investments worth billions of dollars. “Goldman is brilliant at exercising access and influence without fingerprints,” Kelleher said.

By mid-2016, Goldman, along with Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase, was petitioning the Fed for an additional five years to comply with Volcker-- which would take the banks well into a new administration. All Blankfein and Cohn had to do was wait for a new Congress and a new president who might back their efforts to flush all of Dodd-Frank. Then Goldman could continue the risky and lucrative habits it had adopted since traders like Cohn had taken over the firm-- the financial crisis be damned-- and continue raking in billions in profits each year.

Goldman’s political giving changed in the wake of Dodd-Frank. Dating back to at least 1990, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, people associated with the firm and its political action committees contributed more to Democrats than Republicans. Yet in the years since financial reform, Goldman, once Obama’s second-largest political donor, shifted its campaign contributions to Republicans. During the 2008 election cycle, for instance, Goldman’s people and PACs contributed $4.8 million to Democrats and $1.7 million to Republicans. By the 2012 cycle, the opposite happened, with Goldman giving $5.6 million to Republicans and $1.8 million to Democrats. Cohn’s personal giving followed the same path. Cohn gave $26,700 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2006 and $55,500 during the 2008 election cycle, and none to its GOP equivalent. But Cohn donated $30,800 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2012 and another $33,400 to the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2015, without contributing a dime to the DSCC. Cohn gave $5,000 to Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown weeks after news broke that Elizabeth Warren-- an outspoken critic of Goldman and other Wall Street players-- might try to capture his U.S. Senate seat, which she did in 2012.
And here are the dozen current members of the Senate who have taken the most in bribes from the banksters (since 1990); also bipartisan:
John McCain (R-AZ)- $39,398,887
Chuck Schumer (D-NY)- $26,628,675
Marco Rubio (R-FL)- $12,632,535
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)- $12,149,201
Rob Portman (R-OH)- $10,627,074
Pat Toomey (R-PA)- $9,027,950
Ted Cruz (R-TX)- $8,660,047
John Cornyn (R-TX)- $8,649,666
Richard Shelby (R-AL)- $8,455,008
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)- $8,416,631
Bob Menendez (D-NJ)- $7,867,355
Mark Warner (D-VA)- $7,793,321
Nancy Ohanian's White House Kakocracy


Goldman Sachs, under Cohn and Blankfein, was hardly chastened, continuing to play fast and loose with existing rules even as it plunged millions of dollars into fending off new ones. In 2010, the SEC ran a sting operation looking for banks willing to trade favorable assessments by its stock analysts for a piece of a Toys R Us IPO if the company went public. Goldman took the bait, for which they would pay a $5 million fine. An employee working out of Goldman’s Boston office drafted speeches, vetted a running mate, and negotiated campaign contracts for the state treasurer during his run for Massachusetts governor in 2010, despite a rule forbidding municipal bond dealers from making significant political contributions to officials who can award them business. According to the SEC, Goldman had underwritten $9 billion in bonds for Massachusetts in the previous two years, generating $7.5 million in fees. Goldman paid $12 million to settle the matter in 2012.

Just two years later, Goldman officials were again summoned by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations to address charges that the bank under Cohn and Blankfein had boosted its profits by building a “virtual monopoly” in order to inflate aluminum prices by as much as $3 billion.

The last few years have brought more unwanted attention. In 2015, the U.S. Justice Department launched an investigation into Goldman’s role in the alleged theft of billions of dollars from a development fund the firm had helped create for the government of Malaysia. Federal regulators in New York state fined Goldman $50 million because its leaders failed to effectively supervise a banker who leaked stolen confidential government information from the Fed, which hit the firm with another $36.3 million in penalties. In December, the CFTC fined Goldman $120 million for trying to rig interest rates to profit the firm.

Politically, 2016 would prove a strange year for Goldman. Bernie Sanders clobbered Hillary Clinton for pocketing hundreds of thousands of dollars in speaking fees from Goldman, while Trump attacked Ted Cruz for being “in bed with” Goldman Sachs. (Cruz’s wife Heidi was a managing director in Goldman’s Houston office until she took leave to work on her husband’s presidential campaign.) Goldman would have “total control” over Clinton, Trump said at a February 2016 rally, a point his campaign reinforced in a two-minute ad that ran the weekend before Election Day. An image of Blankfein flashed across the screen as Trump warned about the global forces that “robbed our working class.”

Goldman’s giving in the presidential race appears to reflect polls predicting a Clinton win and the firm’s desire for a political restart on deregulation. People who identified themselves as Goldman Sachs employees gave less than $5,000 to the Trump campaign compared to the $341,000 that the firm’s people and PACs contributed to Clinton. Goldman Sachs is relatively small compared to retail banking giants.

Yet, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, no bank outspent Goldman Sachs during the 2016 political cycle. Its PACs and people associated with the firm made $5.6 million in political contributions in 2015 and 2016. Even including all donations to Clinton, 62 percent of Goldman’s giving ended up in the coffers of Republican candidates, parties, or conservative outside groups.

There's ultimately no great mystery why Donald Trump selected Gary Cohn for a top post in his administration, despite his angry rhetoric about Goldman Sachs. There’s the high regard the president holds for anyone who is rich-- and the instant legitimacy Cohn conferred upon the administration within business circles. Cohn’s appointment reassured bond markets about the unpredictable new president and lent his administration credibility it lacked among Fortune 100 CEOs, none of whom had donated to his campaign. Ego may also have played a role. Goldman Sachs would never do business with Trump, the developer who resorted to foreign banks and second-tier lenders to bankroll his projects. Now Goldman’s president would be among those serving in his royal court.

...In early February, Trump signed an executive order giving his Treasury secretary 120 days to give him a hit list of regulations the administration could eliminate. But with Mnuchin yet to be confirmed, the task appeared to land in Cohn’s eager hands. He was standing at the president’s shoulder when Trump said, “We expect to be cutting a lot out of Dodd-Frank.” Shares in Goldman Sachs, which had jumped by 28 percent after the election, rose another $6 a share that day. Soon Cohn was coordinating Trump’s plans not only for rolling back regulations, but also for creating jobs and slashing taxes. He met with a health care specialist, along with House Speaker Paul Ryan and other Republican leaders, to discuss alternatives to the Affordable Care Act.

...These days, it can be hard to tell whether Cohn is speaking as a high-ranking White House official or a former Goldman Sachs executive.

In the wake of Trump’s February call for a rollback in financial regulations, Cohn vowed in an interview with Bloomberg TV, “We’re going to attack all aspects of Dodd-Frank.” The first example he gave: the Volcker Rule, which he cast as harmful to the country’s competitive advantage. In an interview that same day with Fox Business, he homed in on another Goldman obsession: Dodd-Frank’s capital requirements. “Banks are forced to hoard money because they are forced to hoard capital, and they can’t take any risks,” he said. Mortgage, auto, credit card lending, and commercial lending are all up since 2010. Yet Cohn told Fox viewers, “We need to get banks back in the lending business, that’s our No. 1 objective.”

Roy Smith, a former Goldman partner now teaching at the NYU Stern School of Business, argues that Cohn should avoid the administration’s effort to unwind Dodd-Frank altogether, but “at a very minimum he has to excuse himself whenever the discussion turns to Volcker.” But Smith said he has trouble imagining Cohn leaving the room when Volcker comes up. “The hard part for someone like Cohn is that he knows where all the pain points are with Volcker and other parts of Dodd-Frank,” Smith said. “His every instinct would be to get involved.”

Beyond deregulation, two other pillars of Trump’s economic plan-- cutting taxes and investing in infrastructure-- would have dramatic impacts on Goldman’s bottom line.

Thanks to loopholes, many Fortune 500 corporations pay little or no corporate income tax at all. By contrast, Goldman Sachs typically pays taxes near the official 35 percent federal tax rate. In 2014, for instance, Goldman paid $3.9 billion in taxes on profits of $12.4 billion, or 31 percent. Last year, the firm’s tax bill was $2.7 billion on profits of $10.3 billion, or 28 percent. In that same Fox Business interview, Cohn said that “lower corporate taxes” was the White House’s “starting point” on tax reform; cuts to personal income taxes were a secondary concern.

Under the plan Cohn and Mnuchin announced last spring, what Cohn called “one of the biggest tax cuts in the American history,” corporate taxes would be capped at 15 percent. If Cohn succeeds, Goldman will save massive sums: At that rate, Goldman would have paid $2 billion less in taxes in 2014, $1.4 billion less in 2015, and $1.4 billion less in 2016. The Koch brothers’ network of political groups has already spent millions of dollars to promote the proposal. Even Blankfein, who the Trump campaign singled out in the commercial it ran in the final days of the campaign, acknowledged in a voicemail to employees that Trump’s commitment to tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure “will be good for our clients and our firm.”

The details of the president’s “$1 trillion” infrastructure plan are similarly favorable to Goldman. As laid out in the administration’s 2018 budget, the government would spend only $200 billion on infrastructure over the coming decade. By structuring “that funding to incentivize additional non-Federal funding”-- tax breaks and deals that privatize roads, bridges, and airports-- the government could take credit for “at least $1 trillion in total infrastructure spending,” the budget reads.

It was as if Cohn were still channeling his role as a leader of Goldman Sachs when, at the White House in May, he offered this advice to executives: “We say, ‘Hey, take a project you have right now, sell it off, privatize it, we know it will get maintained, and we’ll reward you for privatizing it.’” “The bigger the thing you privatize, the more money we’ll give you,” continued Cohn. By “we,” he clearly meant the federal government; by “you,” he appeared to be speaking, at least in part, about Goldman Sachs, whose Public Sector and Infrastructure group arranges the financing on large-scale public sector deals. “Goldman Sachs is one of the largest infrastructure fund managers globally,” according to infrastructure advisory firm InfraPPP Partners, “having raised more than $10 billion of capital since the inception of the business in 2006.” Lost in the infamous press conference the president gave in the lobby of Trump Tower a few days after Charlottesville, with Cohn and Mnuchin visibly uncomfortable at his right flank, were Trump’s remarks on infrastructure, the ostensible purpose of the event. The thrust was that the president would grease the wheels for project approvals by signing an executive order rolling back environmental impact requirements and other elements of an “overregulated permitting process.”

In countless other ways, Cohn is positioned to help the firm that has been so good to him over the years. The country’s National Economic Council adviser might caution a president against running too large a deficit, especially amid a healthy economy. But Goldman Sachs is in the business of finding investors to underwrite government debt. An economic adviser might caution a populist president that corporate inversions often cost jobs and tax revenue. Instead, Trump has ordered a review of policies Obama put in place to discourage them-- good news for Cohn’s former colleagues. Transparency has been a watchword of initial public offerings dating back at least to the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, but easing those rules, a step Goldman has sought, could potentially generate hundreds of millions of dollars in fees for investment banks such as Goldman. The SEC announced in June that it would allow any company going public to withhold details of its finances and strategies, an exemption previously available only to firms with under $1 billion in revenue-- more good tidings for Goldman. Just loosening the rules for IPOs, said Tyler Gellasch, the former Senate staffer, “could mean hundreds of millions of dollars more to Goldman.”

In June, the Treasury Department released a statement of principles about the administration’s approach to financial regulation focused on promoting “liquid and vibrant markets.” Not surprisingly, the report included a call to ease capital requirements and substantially amend the Volcker Rule.

It’s Cohn’s influence over the country’s regulators that worries Dennis Kelleher, the financial reform lobbyist. “To him, what’s good for Wall Street is good for the economy,” Kelleher said of Cohn. “Maybe that makes sense when a guy has spent 26 years at Goldman, a company who has repaid his loyalties and sweat with a net worth in the hundreds of millions.” Kelleher recalls those who lost a home or a chunk of their retirement savings during a financial crisis that Cohn helped precipitate. “They’re still suffering,” he said. “Yet now Cohn’s in charge of the economy and talking about eliminating financial reform and basically putting the country back to where it was in 2005, as if 2008 didn’t happen. I’ve started the countdown clock to the next financial crash, which will make the last one look mild.”

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