More Bad News For Florida GOP

Lobbyist & RNC member Al Cardenas sticks a knife in Marco Rubio's back

Al Cardenas may not be a household name but in Florida GOP circles he's more than just one of Washington's sleaziest and most corrupt lobbyists. He's the former chairman of that state's GOP. He's also the man who nurtured the career and political ambitions of a young Cuban-American fanatic, Marco Rubio, and is widely considered Rubio's mentor and political godfather. The godfather just endorsed Rubio's opponent, Florida gay-blade Charlie Crist, for the open Senate seat. Crist has been scooping up all the cash and all the Cuban-American political big names, leaving Rubio-- whose campaign is broke and paying employees with IOUs-- with nothing but the teabaggers and dittoheads. Cardenas' stab in the back may be the most painful for Rubio-- rumored to be about to pull out of the race and run for Attorney General-- but Rubio has been abandoned by all his former Cuban-American allies, including the notorious gangsters Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez, and outgoing Senator Mel Martinez (who voted to confirm Sonia Sotomayor today, something Rubio was hysterically opposed to). Cardenas' statement to the press was a none-too-subtle call for Rubio to pack it up and start working on the far right flank of the Republican base to get behind the more mainstream gay blade. "As we look to the 2010 election cycle, I urge Republicans to unite the Republican Party by standing behind Governor Crist. With Governor Crist atop the ticket, I am confident that our party will achieve sweeping victories in 2010."

But Republican woes aren't just at the top of the ticket. Most of their first tier draft picks to run for Congress have bowed out, well aware that Florida has swung Democrat and is trending away from the crazy right-wing politics the GOP base hears about from Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Lou Dobbs and Bill O'Reilly and is demanding for their state. Today GOP hopes were shattered for defeating freshman Suzanne Kosmas as their top recruit, former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz, publicly stated he's not running. Right after meeting with top Republican strategists at the NRCC Holtz told a TV audience, "I'm working for ESPN. I don't want to run for Congress." Instead Pete Sessions will put up some teabagging birther to try to win the seat back from Kosmas who defeated an entrenched incumbent, Jack Abramoff operative Tom Feeney, 57-41%.

Word that Holtz was unimpressed by the clowns at the NRCC came right on top of yesterday's news that popular St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft has decided to jump into the congressional race against far right extremist Tom Rooney, who brags how he's voted against nearly every proposal that's come from the Obama administration, regardless of the impact on his own constituents. Rooney is a hard core obstructionist and an empty-headed ideologue with no solutions to Florida's woes.

CQPolitics immediately changed it's rating for the race from Safe Republican to Republican Favored. Florida's 16th CD is the third worst hit congressional district in the country by the mortgage crisis. There have been 25,532 foreclosures so far and over 85,000 are projected over the next 4 years. Rooney was forced by constituent pressure to cross the aisle and vote with Democrats for the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act. But today he is fighting tooth and nail against health care reform and says he will never support the public option that his donors in the Insurance companies and Medical-Industrial Complex are so adamantly against. Odd that Rooney should be so opposed to health care reform when the Center For American Progress found that his constituents would be among the people with the most to gain! These are the results of their examination of health care in Florida and how President Obama's proposals would help:

• 850 residents of Florida are losing health insurance every day, and 14,000 Americans cover everyone-- and $1,100 more nationally.

• Our broken health insurance system will cost the Florida economy as much as $19 billion this year in productivity losses due to the uninsured-- and up to $248 billion nationally.

• In Florida there has been a 15 percent increase in the uninsured rate since 2007.

• 3,920,000 are uninsured today in Florida.

• In Florida the combined market share of the top two insurers is 45 percent, limiting employers’ and families’ health insurance options as well as the care they receive.

• The average family premium will rise from $12,763 to $21,779 by 2019 in Florida without health care reform.

• In Florida, without health care reform, 556,070 will have lost coverage from January 2008 to December 2010.

• In Florida, 1,854,000 people would gain coverage as a result of the House health care reform bill by 2013, and 2,982,000 would gain coverage by 2019.

• A typical Florida family will pay $21,779 for health coverage in 2019 without health care reform.

The same local folks who forced Rooney to vote for the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act should start pressuring him to vote for health care reform. Remember, as bad as the U.S. system is for delivering high quality, low cost health care to regular working families, it's much worse in Florida. And Rooney's approach isn't viable: "Instead of imposing an expensive, government-run healthcare system on the American people," he read from his Republican Talking Points memo, "let's implement some common sense ideas that will make healthcare more affordable and accessible." His common sense ideas? An apple a day and more tax breaks. Someone should sit Tom Rooney down and make him watch this clip:



Meanwhile, Florida has something else to worry about. An angry mob of astro-turfed right-wing dupes and Obama-haters showed up at a health care forum in Tampa, hosted by Congresswoman Kathy Castor and state Representative Betty Reed, to prevent a serious discussion of the issues. The teabagger and dittohead thugs, encouraged all day by poisonous Republican Party officials and Hate Talk Radio hosts, soon turned violent and started fist fights.

Angry protesters and strong supporters are clashing inside and all around a health care reform town hall meeting in Downtown Tampa. The meeting which was scheduled to begin at 6:00 at the Children's Board of Hillsborough County drew hundreds of people who quickly began to overwhelm staff and event organizers at the front entrance.

As the building filled to capacity, angry protesters stuck outside began to scream, yell, and chant. At one point, those trying to get inside began banging on windows as Tampa Police officers quickly spread out guarding all entrances.

Karen Thurman, chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party was appalled because she has been working hard to encourage people to come to these meetings to exchange ideas and to have their concerns answered.

"Throughout the summer, we have been reaching out to Floridians to engage in an important debate on the future our health care system. We have heard story after story from people who are struggling to get the care they need.

"Recently, their thoughtful discussions are being interrupted by angry mobs-- well funded and organized by Washington special interests-- attempting to drown out the voices of the hard-working Floridians who are desperate for health insurance reform. These groups are not concerned about Americans' access to quality heath care, but are extreme ideologues, only interested in 'breaking' the President and thwarting the change Americans voted for last November. 

"In the last three years the Republican Party has lost control of the House, the Senate and the White House because they have offered no ideas and no solutions. Now, these well funded right-wing groups are following the example of the Republican Party and instead of providing real ideas for fixing our broken health care system, they're doing everything they can to drown out thoughtful discussion and spread vicious and hateful lies. Their desperate behavior does nothing to help their cause, Floridians or our country. 

"Despite their threatening tactics, we will continue our work to give a voice to the majority of Floridians who believe that all Americans should have access to quality, affordable health care."

It was a relief to see the Lou Dobbs network allow one of its anchors, Rick Sanchez, to get into the real story of these violent assaults on democracy. Sanchez nailed the ratty hide of Rick Scott, one of the financiers of the mayhem, to the barn door (just as Chris Matthews did with a Freedomworks shill on Harball this afternoon). Take a look:



UPDATE: And Now Mel Martinez Is Resigning

No, not just retiring; resigning. It really is the party of quitters. Will Charlie Crist make a play for the far right base he's losing to Rubio by appointing Katherine Harris or Jeb Bush as an interim senator? After all, she'd fit right in with the obstructionist GOP Senate caucus.

Republican Party Recruitment Disaster In Virginia

Glenn Nye, much safer with a fourth rate GOP opponent

The GOP had high hopes that state Senator Ken Stolle would challenge Blue Dog freshman Glenn Nye for his Norfolk, VA-based congressional seat. Nye beat freshman right-winger Thelma Drake soon after Drake took over for another Republican wingnut, Ed Schrock, a viciously anti-gay sociopath who was caught soliciting young men on a phone sex line in 2004. But Stolle analyzed the situation and told the NRCC "thanks but no thanks," sticking them with a wealthy 4th rate used car salesman, Scott Rigell, who is widely viewed as having no realistic chance to win the seat, even though he plans to waste a tremendous amount of money trying.

Although the local GOP establishment, led by Drake, to whom Rigell, has donated enormous sums of money, are behind him, he'll have to get by a motley array of 4th and 5th tier candidates for the Republican nomination before facing Nye. A bunch of retired military vets-- Chuck Smith, Bert Mizusawa, Ben Loyola and Ed Maulbeck-- are probable entrants and a Virginia Beach Republican Party operative, Kenny Golden, also wants to run.

Rigell had been a major financial supporter of Ed Schrock's but he's widely viewed as a sleazy opportunist who spread his money around to anyone he thought might help him. Last year he gave to Mitt Romney, John McCain and Barack Obama. The local party just wants the cash and they know there's no realistic shot at defeating Nye anyway. Candidate Chuck Smith, who is being opposed by most local Republican Party officials because of his race, has a good analysis of the likely outcome of a GOP bloodletting in VA-02:



Another Republican Party Recruitment Disaster In The Making-- Illinois

D-Day has the story about how the reactionaries in the Illinois congressional delegation denied mainstream conservative Mark Kirk their backing, throwing the nomination to unelectable wingnut Andy McKenna.

Republican Recruiting Efforts Leading Towards A GOP Civil War?

Limbaugh's fuming-- who will Jebby back?

The candidate got a zero from the National Right To Life Committee and a 100 from NARAL Pro-Choice America. Planned Parenthood rates him a respectable 73. The National Taxpayers Union rated him a D and the National Association of Manufacturers rated him a 45%. The far right, anti-labor BIPAC rated him at 50% and the Chamber of Commerce gave him a 75%. He rates high with environmental groups-- in the 90s. The NRA rates him an F (up from an F- in 2007). The AFL-CIO rated him at 58%, the UAW 64% and SEIU gave him 63%. Americans for Democratic Action (ADA) rated him 50%. The ACLU rates him at 55%, the NAACP gives him a 73% and gay rights group HRC gives him a 65%. The Christian Coalition gave him a 20% and the Conservative Union a dismal 28%. The John Birch Society has him at 30%, Club for Growth at 40%, the Eagle Forum at 29%, the Family Research Council at 23% (up from 18% in 2007), and both the Traditional Values Coalition and GOPUSA at zero. The National Organization of Woman (NOW) rates him at 75% and the far-right US Women's Chamber of Commerce gives him a zero. The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (anti-war) gave him an A and the Vietnam Veterans of America (pro-war) gave him a 12%.

Does the above profile sound like a high-profile Republican Senate recruitment? Not if you've been listening to Dick Cheney and Rush Limbaugh. But it's recent ratings for longtime Delaware Republican Michael Castle and the NRSC and GOP senators are begging him to jump into the race in the very Democratic state. (McCain only scraped up 37% last year, while Castle was re-elected with 61%. Put another way, McCain drew 152,374 while Castle drew 235,437, just 20,000 less than Obama).

Today Josh Kraushaar and Manu Raju at Politico report that Castle is seriously mulling over the race. "I talk to senators, they call me, I talk to them. There's no real pressure," Castle said, mentioning that he’s recently talked about the race with Sen. John McCain. Cornyn, Hatch, McCain may be playing it cool and giving Castle lots of space but they're absolutely desperate.

He said the pressure he feels "more than anything else" is coming to a decision since many Delaware Republicans are waiting for him to make his next move. Castle is viewed by national GOP strategists as the only Republican who is able to pick up the seat once held by Vice President Joseph Biden.

If he does run, it is likely to be against Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of the VP and the state's longtime senator. Right now he's on military duty in Iraq as a captain in the National Guard. Polling for Castle is great but he knows it doesn't guarantee anything. The GOP knows if Castle doesn't run, it guarantees that the seat will not be in play.

The Cheney-Limbaugh teabagger wing of the party is up in arms because the NRSC is leaning towards endorsing mainstream conservative Jim Gerlach over Club For Growth Know Nothing Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, begging corporate hack Carly Fiorina to challenge drooling true believer Chuck DeVore for the GOP nod in California, and has already endorsed Charlie Crist over the darling of far right extremist loons, Marco Rubio, in Florida. Yesterday we saw how Rep. Kevin McCarthy is trying to recruit mainstream candidates for House races, often at the expense of far right extremists. Expect an explosion out of Limbaugh soon as he seeks to reassert his authority over his fractious party.


UPDATE: Urgent Message From The Lunatic Fringe

Erick Erickson, a Georgia Republican extremist who hosts a fanatic website, Red State, started the Facebook group, "Not one penny to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)," which I promptly joined. He sent all us members a note today:

Erick Erickson sent a message to the members of Not one penny to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).

--------------------
Subject: They are listening

I've been getting all sorts of emails begging me to shut this group down.

Instead, please consider inviting ten friends each.

The NRSC will not listen to us unless we help shut down their fundraising.  You can help.

Thanks,
Erick

Don't forget-- not one penny.

GOP Sends Out Invitations But None Of The Popular Kids Want To Come To Their Party

The departure of the universally loathed Bush-Cheney team hasn't done much to revive the battered Republican brand-- not if you believe the surveys that show that only 1 in 5 voters admits to being a Republican or if you see the dismal-- and still declining-- approval ratings for the GOP congressional leadership. This morning the Gallup poll shows that Americans of every single age group-- from 18 year olds to people over 60 prefer Democrats to Republicans. Watch:

just hit this thing and the guy will give you the scoop

And, after a great big thumbs down from GOP supremo Rush Limbaugh, the Eric Cantor/Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush ill-starred rebranding initiative, and "listening tour"/pizza party is a big dud, especially among the Republican base.

There aren't any Democratic-Republican contests coming up between now and November, 2010 but what all this is doing is absolutely killing GOP congressional recruiting efforts. The clownish antics of RNC head Michael Steele, the stunning catastrophe the GOP suffered in NY-20, the ugliness of their extremely unpopular strategy of obstructionism, the ugliness of utterly abandoning their constituents to become lockstep adherents of piggish capitalism, and the likelihood that the Republican congressional rump will not just remain a minority but will shrink into even greater irrelevance, are combining to send first tier recruits running for the hills.

Even though Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) has proven herself to be one of the most mediocre members of the freshman class, a bumbling idiot who votes with Republicans even on the most popular Democratic issues-- like yesterday's Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act (which even 60 Republicans felt compelled by public opinion to support!)-- the only Republican who could have probably dispatched her, state Rep. Bill Konopnicki, pretty much said thanks but no thanks. In Virginia, Republicans were counting on Thelma Drake to pick herself off the mat and slug it out with Blue Dog Glenn Nye again. Nye hasn't been supporting Obama's program and would probably not get much enthusiasm from Democrats who pay attention. Nevertheless, Drake just announced she's not interested. Right now the only candidate the Republicans have for the seat is an African-American former Virginia Beach party chairman, Chuck Smith, who would probably have as much of a shot to win as I would. As long as the GOP is admitting minorities, maybe they'll try bringing back former closet case/former congressman Ed Schrock, who represented the district before being outed on a gay phone-sex and pick-up service.

Meanwhile the Florida Republican Party chairman, Jim Greer, has been considered the GOP's best bet to take on another weak Democratic freshman, Suaznne Kosmas. This week the Orlando Sentinel reported that he'll be taking a pass on that one. Expect to see a lot more message like this from Republicans around the country:

“I am grateful to those who encouraged me to seek this office. While I certainly appreciate the honor of consideration, I feel at this point in time I can better serve the Republican Party of Florida by completing my second term as Chairman."

Some of the messages will say "at this point in time I can better serve the party by completing my obligations as" a goat cheese maker or as a crack cocaine cooker or as a dishwasher at the Olive Garden on 4th Street. Nobody wants to be with the sore loser team. Tom Ridge, apparently, is so enjoying his stint as a lobbyist for Albania that he's stopped taking frantic phone calls from John Cornyn, as has Illinois congressman Mark Kirk whose 53-19% polling lead over Roland Burris hasn't persuaded him to get into the race.

After Dean Heller excused himself to go to the men's room and then climbed out the back window, the GOP hasn't been able to find a legitimate candidate willing to run against Harry Reid. Right now they're trying to decide between a New York bankster, John Chachas, who once spent some time in Ely, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki who would have to run his campaign from a prison cell since he's been indicted for stealing state funds (but when he was state Treasurer, not as Lt Governor), or a former state assemblywoman, Sharron Angle, a Club For Growth religious extremist (and Scientology shill) who is considered so far to the right that should she ever break her losing streak and get into any public office again-- not likely-- she would give Michele Bachmann and Virginia Foxx a run for their money when it comes to TV bookers looking for hysterical lunatic fringe Know Nothings to spout nonsense in front of a camera.

Even the absolute worst excuse for a Democrat outside the Old Confederacy, Idaho reactionary Walt Minnick, who votes with the GOP more frequently, at least on important matters, than with Democrats, looks like he'll skate to an undeserved re-election in an overwhelmingly red district with no credible challenger. Minnick beat a neo-fascist incumbent with just 51% of the vote in 2008-- while McCain McCain got 62% of the vote in the district (somewhat less than Bush's 69% but still proof positive that ID-01 is one of the most backward and ignorant districts in America). But yesterday Idaho Treasurer Ron Crane, the GOP's first choice for the seat, announced that he will not be running. A local KKK grand dragon or Aryan Nation fuehrer may be all the GOP will manage to field.

Although Arnold Schwarzenegger has bowed out of challenging Barbara Boxer, she will have a GOP challenger, kind of. Chuck DeVore, a sad sack fifth tier opponent from Irvine, has somehow been diverted into making his clownish race a pissing match with ex-Eagles superstar Don Henley. The Hill is more hopeful than most about Republicans being able to recruit credible Senate candidates, even if their efforts to find any potential winners in the House races have come to naught.

PSSSTT... WANNA BUY A MAJOR PARTY NOMINATION FOR A CONGRESSIONAL SEAT?

Essense of McCain captured by tw3k

Over at Firedoglake this afternoon, Blue Texan pointed out that there's a strong probability that poor John Boehner is off his meds again. He doesn't actually believe it, but he's further eroding whatever credibility he still has by predicting that the GOP, which is expected to lose between 15 and 30 seats in the House in November-- unless things get bad, in which case, the sky's the limit-- will pick up seats!

But maybe he was aiming his remarks at Republican prospects for congressional seats. The RNCC is having an awful hard time finding any. Well, let me rephrase that. They're unable to persuade any credible candidates to run and are flooded with third and fourth tier applicants. Most are just crackpots with some kind of cockamamie agenda-- like getting even with someone for shooting their elk herd. But what the Insiders want, now that they've given up on first or second tier candidates in most districts, is to find wealthy vanity candidates who can just fund their own campaign and not drag down McCain's already slim chances.

They're not taking "For Sale" ads out in the local papers but... almost. Today's CongressDaily ran a story by Erin McPike diplomatically pointing out that the RNCC is focusing on self-funders now. One Republican bright spot in Illinois, Tim Baldermann, dropped out after winning the primary because the state and national parties told him they're broke and to go raise money himself. He told them to go find another pasty. (And they did; one with far more money than ethics.)

Far right kook Jim Oberweis flushed $2.3 million of his own fortune-- plus McCain's credibility as a candidate who might have any coattails-- down the toilet trying to win Denny Hastert's congressional seat a few weeks ago. Other obscenely wealthy vanity candidates in Illinois include Steve Greenberg (who's running against reactionary Blue Dog Melissa Bean), Martin Orzinga (the one with the ethics problems who took over after Balermann bailed) and, silliest of all, Steve Sauerberg, who is running against Senator Dick Durbin.

But each of those self-funded Republicans has problems that may offset any financial edge. Oberweis has run several times on his own dime and has yet to win. Greenberg has come under fire from liberals for comments he made about Bean's Serbian background. And Ozinga's family-owned concrete business has been the subject of negative press reports about allegedly taking advantage of affirmative action laws. Democratic nominee Debbie Halvorson has demonstrated fundraising prowess in the early going.

A DCCC spokesman, Doug Thornell hit the nail on the head: "The NRCC has suffered from woeful recruiting this cycle. Internal problems and have forced them to rely on numerous right-wing 527s and wealthy controversial candidates who are poor fits for their districts."

And it is certainly not just in Illinois, where Republicans are running into these kinds of problems. Their whole New Jersey operation is a shambles and their plight in New York looks even worse, where their down to asking non-Republicans to run to replace retiring incumbents! They found a sucker to run against John Hall, a wealthy gentleman who spent $650,000 and dropped out of the race 2 weeks later, after he realized he and his shady business dealings would come under public scrutiny.

Today, another wealthy political novice tossed his hate into an upstate New York ring crowded with fifth rate candidates for the seat Republican rubber stamp incumbent Tom Reynolds knows he can't win again. Rich businessmen Chris Jacobs and Rick Lewis join a growing list of Republicans no one has ever heard of.

Early on, the race to find a GOP candidate saw some of the recognizable names that you would have expected, such as State Senator George Maziarz and State Assemblyman James Hayes. When they dropped out, the party went looking for a less expected but still recognizable face. Anchorman Don Postles' name was tossed around for awhile.

But the county's top Republican thinks it is time to go the other way.

County Executive Chris Collins has recruited fellow businessman Rick Lewis for a possible run. He is the president of the Talking Phone Book. But most voters probably have never heard of him. Collins said that can be changed, citing himself as a perfect example.

"It's amazing what a little advertising on the television can do for your name ID," said Collins.
And all that requires is a little money. Well, actually lots of money. The 2006 race for the 26th district soared to more than seven million dollars. But Collins said Lewis is prepared to spend at least a million of his own money if he decides to run. He said that, along with a proven track record as a highly successful businessman, could make people sit up and take notice.

And over in Washington state, the Republicans were facing a whole other set of problems even before McCain wrecked their chances by undermining Boeing and pushing millions of dollars worth of jobs towards a European competitor being represented by some of the 66 lobbyists who run his election campaign. This week Congressional Quarterly assessed the political situation in Washington and found it a place where Republicans should just not even waste their money trying. Last cycle Christine Gregoire won the Governor's Mansion by a hair and Darcy Burner lost the congressional race in WA-08 by a hair. This year both are likely to win, and probably win big. "[A]nalysts now say that the Democrats have upped their chancing of winning as the state GOP party faces structural problems and GOP efforts to appeal to the state's large number of moderate voters has been hampered by their strong conservative base." They rate Darcy's stand against the Iraq war as a key reason for why her campaign is surging and they also point out that Reichert's "got the albatross of the Bush administration hanging around his neck." Yes, he does... along with 170 or so other Republican rubber stamp incumbents.

HIGH ON ANYONE'S LIST OF SOMEONE NOT TO TRADE PLACES WITH WOULD BE NRCC CHAIR TOM COLE (R-OK)

Bad vibes: Cole & Boehner

A few days ago the NY Times published a kind of a preview/promo for a major article, "The End of Republican America," they were promising for Sunday's Magazine section. It is the story of NRCC Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) and the Times's teaser was in a section about how dire everything looks for the Republicans in Congress:

Many conservative activists have become so dissatisfied with the party’s heresies, particularly on immigration and government spending, that as Cole’s staff took over, the committee’s fund-raising pleas were being ignored and, on at least one occasion, returned in an envelope stuffed with feces.

But the news is far worse than an envelope stuffed with right-wing feces here and there. As we've been mentioning, the Republicans have been unable to attract credible candidates, First-tier candidates are out of the question-- as Cole sadly explained in a story about trying to find an opponent for mediocre Blue Dog freshman Joe Donnelly (D-IN)-- and the GOP is starting to realize that even second tier candidates are out of their grasp.

After 2006, most observers thought that those results suggested a onetime event, a so-called wave election, and predicted that come 2008, Republicans would reclaim some of those seats, the usual correction after a wave like this passes. But now, seven months before the 2008 election, that does not seem likely. The influential, independent Cook Political Report recently concluded that 12 of the 14 districts most vulnerable to change parties in this election will belong to Republicans, suggesting that Cole’s party is likely to end up in an even deeper hole.

As always, Cook is a lagging indicator and extremely conservative in his predictions. If the Republicans were to lose only a dozen seats in November, it would be an occasion of great rejoicing. They're basically trying to keep losses down to as few as they came-- probably a couple dozen-- and then hope they can start making up the lost ground in 2010. Cole, himself a far right loon and across-the-board extremist, speculates that the reason normal Americans have grown to hate the GOP brand is because the part is too far from the mainstream. "This isn’t an ideologically conservative country, and maybe some of us overreached in thinking that it was, and have been corrected for that. But I believe that it is still a center-right country, and I think this election will show that." He isn't taking his own implied advice and continues, lemming-like, to vote hard right on every single issue that comes before the House, like most of the reflexive rubber stampers. Cole, of course, tries to present himself as optimistic that the Republicans will fare well under his leadership. He doesn't sound very convincing and at one point gets wistful about how a North Carolina reactionary freshman really belongs in the GOP. "Heath Shuler, the North Carolina Democrat, 'who is,' Cole says, with a certain envy, 'to the right of Genghis Khan.'”

The fact that Emanuel nabbed Shuler instead of Tom Reynolds (then NRCC head who tried convincing Shuler to run as a Republican in Tennessee) isn't anything Cole can do anything about. He has his own problems and can't even recruit credible candidate in pretty red districts. "It is possible to interpret this as a recruiting failure by Cole’s committee. But it’s also possible to see the void in these districts as an acknowledgment by up-and-coming Republican politicians that something has changed, and that this land has been swallowed by the tide." And it isn't a red tide.

In their intimacy with the numbers, many Republican operatives now worry that crucial segments of the electorate are slipping away from them. Republicans had traditionally won the votes of independents; in 2006, they lost them by 18 percent. Hispanic voters, who gave the Democrats less than 60 percent of their votes in 2004, cast more than 70 percent of their votes for Democrats in 2006. Suburban voters, long a Republican constituency, favored Democrats in 2006 for the first time since 1992. And Democrats won their largest share of voters under 30 in the modern era, a number particularly troubling for some Republicans, since it seems to indicate the preferences of an entire generation.

“What is concerning is that we lost ground in every one of the highest-growth demographics,” said Mehlman, the former R.N.C. chairman and Bush political adviser, who is now a lawyer at the lobbying firm Akin Gump.

For operatives like Cole, focused on expanding the party’s appeal, the conservative movement had become too demanding: its aggressive rhetoric on some social issues alienated young voters, its swagger on immigration hardened Hispanic voters against Republicans and its emphasis on tax cuts for the wealthy made it difficult for the party to appeal to populist voters. Buffeted by those movement passions, the great thing at the center of it all-- the party-- began to fray. “If there are Republicans out there who think that 2006 was a year that could be changed by a few votes in a few districts, they need to wake up,” Mehlman told me. “It was a rejection.”

Maybe the primaries woke them up. Even in deeply red states, as many as double the number of Democrats turned out as Republicans. Among the states Bush won in 2004, half a dozen of them saw Obama alone take more than both top getting Republicans together: Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota and South Carolina. They can spin that all they want but in November they'll be eating it with their cold porridge.

And spinning is what Cole does-- although not very convincingly. I was excited though when he promised that the GOP would take Jim Marshall's seat. They're welcome to it. But overall Cole's strategy is based on a firmly held belief that voters are stupider than the feces that was mailed in to the NRCC. "At a moment when Washington is deeply unpopular, he wants his candidates to run as insurgents, but voters still identify Republicans with what they don’t like about Washington-- they prefer a generic Democratic Congressional candidate by a margin of 49 percent to 35 percent, according to a March 7-10 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll; in an ABC/Washington Post poll released in early February, they preferred Democrats to Republicans on seven out of seven issues." He'll combat that by a smear campaign against Nancy Pelosi, trying to take back Congress by running millions of dollars-- not too many millions though; they're broke-- calling her a "San Francisco liberal." It may well help them... in Macon, but Cole's most prescient statement was, when asked what it would mean if a Democrat beat Hastert's handpicked successor in Illinois, "My God, it’s the end of the Republican Party.” Hold that thought 'til November 'cause you ain't seen nothin' yet.

THERE ARE REASONS WHY STATE REPUBLICAN PARTY ORGANIZATIONS ARE GOING THE WAY OF BEAR STEARNS

Likely Democratic winners against GOP rubber stamp incumbents

The GOP is basically selling congressional nomination endorsements. The national party-- which can at least blame part of their financial woes on crooked employees stealing from them-- isn't the only GOP entity as bankrupt as Bear Stearns. Many of the individual state Republican parties are as well. We've watched how one after the other first and second tier candidates are turning down the GOP and how their House and Senate recruitments committees are being forced to accept third, fourth and even fifth tier candidates to run-- basically self-funding vanity candidates or lunatic fringe true-beleivers off on some crazy jag. (It's either that or-- like they did in all the federal races in Arkansas, just skip the whole thing and let the Democrats have the seats uncontested; at least it's cheaper that way.) Seats that the Republicans were once bragging they would "take back" from Democratic freshmen have wound up with no credible challengers, just multimillionaires willing to put their own money in for the thrill and dubious honor of having run for Congress (and lost).

Today, Progress Illinois is reporting that the GOP county chairmen in the district being abandoned by crooked Republican House member Jerry Weller (IL-11) have smoked some cigars in a back room and come up with... a crooked Republican multimillionaire, Martin Ozinga III, to run against state Senator Debbie Halvorson. (The Repug who won the primary, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, dropped out of the race 2 weeks ago because the state and national Republican parties promised him a load of money to compete and then reneged, pleading poverty.)

Democrats are favored to take this seat south and west of Chicago (Joliet to Bloomington)

Weller decided not to seek re-election last year amid questions about his Nicaraguan land dealings, his wife’s investments and his relationship to an indicted defense contractor,  and House Democrats are eyeing the seat as a possible pickup this fall. Weller got 55 percent of the vote in 2006.

...Based on Halvorson’s fundraising, her electoral track record and the circumstances of Weller’s departure, national Republicans are attacking her as if she were an incumbent,  not a Democrat running in what has been GOP territory.

And now they're stuck with a far worse bet than Balderman. The only people who know Ozinga III and friends of Ozinga I and II-- and people who remember the scandal around his shady business practices. Shady business practices make nominees heroes in GOP circles; they don't do that well in moderate suburban and exurban districts like IL-11.

Of course it isn't only Illinois that can't afford to support mainstream or normal candidates. McCain's got his 66 lobbyists to raise money for him but state and district candidates are drowning in GOP debt-- and at a time when the brand is less than worthless in much of the country, they are desperate to find self-funders, even if they have no chance of being taken seriously-- and less chance of taking a seat. Retiring Virginia Congressman Tom Davis, former head of the NRCC: "It's no mystery. You have a very unhappy electorate, which is no surprise, with oil at $108 a barrel, stocks down a few thousand points, a war in Iraq with no end in sight and a president who is still very, very unpopular. He's just killed the Republican brand... The House Republican brand is so bad right now that if it were a dog food, they'd take it off the shelf."

The official word is that "a number of state Republican parties are struggling through troubled times, suffering from internal strife, poor fundraising, onerous debt, scandal or voting trends that are conspiring to relegate the local branches of the party to near-irrelevance." They worry that the grassroots won't be able to help McCain but the grassroots is worried that McCain is vacuuming up whatever resources there are for himself, leaving nothing for local Republicans who look like they will be swamped by far better financed Democrats who have the wind at their backs in many ways above and beyond finances.

“After twelve years of being in power, you tend to get fat and lazy, and in some cases arrogant with respect to your positions,” said Saul Anuzis, chairman of the Michigan Republican party. “There is no doubt that we have had people who have gotten caught up in both illegal activities and immoral activities and none of that helps the party as a whole. “If you go back to 2006 most people would agree that not only did we lose our brand, that we damaged our brand significantly,” Anuzis said.

According to figures compiled by the California secretary of state’s office, the number of registered Republicans there has dropped by roughly 207,000 since October 2006. At the end of January, California’s Republican party was in the red, with $3.2 million cash on hand but more than $3.4 million in debts. California Democrats, by contrast, had $5.5 million in the bank and just $83,000 in debts.

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has clashed with conservatives in his party, used Hollywood terminology to paint a dire picture last fall at a state party convention.

“We are dying at the box office,” Schwarzenegger said. “We are not filling the seats.”

In New York, the situation is equally dismal. After a devastating 2006 election cycle marked by a Democratic statewide office sweep for the first time since 1938 and a Republican nominee who failed to win even 30 percent of the vote, Democrats are now within two seats of wresting a state Senate majority from the GOP, which would give Democrats control of the whole of New York government for the first time since 1934.

A January 2008 state Board of Elections report shows the state Democratic party took in $491,302 and had closing balance of $1.4 million. Republicans, by contrast, took in $26,000 and had a closing balance of $395,000.

And wherever you look-- from Alaska to New Hampshire, from Kansas to Arkansas-- it's the same story: people are sick of the Republicans, tired of their rapaciousness, corruption, dishonesty, incompetence, partisan divisiveness and, most of all, sick of Bush and Cheney and their regimeful of thugs and cronies. What this has meant is that a number of Republican seats that no one dreamed could be up for grabs, are competitive this year. Just today Phil Munger reports at Daily Kos how Don Young's Alaska congressional seat is in play, a seat once thought completely out of bounds for Democrats. Among the GOP incumbents who are facing defeat in November are many who have never even had serious challenges before, such as Dan Rohrabacher and Gary Miller in Orange County, California, John Shadegg in suburban Phoenix, Sam Graves in northwest Missouri, and-- despite Debbie Wasserman Shultz-- Mario Diaz-Balart in south Florida. And Democrats can expect to pick up a dozen or more red districts across the country where GOP incumbents saw the writing on the wall and prematurely announced retirements, especially in New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, Louisiana, Illinois-- and even in Wyoming.


UPDATE: ILLINOIS GOP HAVING SECOND THOUGHTS ON OZINGA III?

Ozinga IV isn't available and, according to Tuesday's Congressional Quarterly some Republicans think they should ditch the unethical Ozinga and give the nod to pizza maker, Harry Bond.

Dick Kavanagh, chairman of the Republican organization in Will County at the southern edge of metro Chicago, said district Republican leaders had spent more than 12 hours at a March 16 meeting discussing the situation and meeting with potential candidates.

“Unfortunately, someone who I thought was a terrific candidate ended up pulling out of the race,” said Kavanagh of Baldermann. “I was obviously very disappointed with him for doing that.”

“[Halvorson] has been running and raising money for six months now, so we’re six months behind in that sense,” said Kavanagh, referring to the Democratic nominee whose most recent report to the Federal Election Commission showed more than $427,000 in receipts and $393,000 cash on hand as of Jan. 16. Baldermann, by comparison, had raised slightly more than $100,000 and had $50,000 in cash on hand as of that date, with three weeks still to go before his primary election.

Nonetheless, Kavanagh said he believed the race is still winnable for the Republicans, as he signaled a strategy of trying to cast Halvorson as too liberal for the district. “The Democrats have been kind enough to give us a candidate who we can contrast with” on the issues,” Kavanagh said.

CQ Politics currently rates the 11th District race as Democrat Favored.