Can Establishment Dems Lose 2 Senate Seats Not Even Republicans Were Hoping For?

Greg Giroux penned an essay for Bloomberg News, All Signs Point to Big Democratic Wins in 2018, which is a hell of a lot more reality-based than the tepid Beltway prognosticators who "think" the Democrats "may" win the 24 seats they need to take over the House again. That was last year's discussion. 12 months on, it's about how many Republicans will be left after the tsunami washes the party away. And is Beto's O'Rourke's second consecutive quarter of outraising Ted Cruz an indication that the Democrats are going to win the Senate as well? "History, demographics and the national mood," wrote Giroux, "are pointing to one conclusion about the 2018 congressional races: Democrats are well-positioned to bring one-party government in Washington under Donald Trump’s presidency to a screeching halt... Even if only one chamber flips to the Democrats, Trump’s ability to impose his agenda would be thwarted, and his administration almost certainly would find itself pinned down by investigations and subpoenas from congressional committees. An analysis by Bloomberg Government of historical data, election maps and public polling points to sweeping Democratic gains in the November election, when all 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate are on the ballot."

Republican pollster Lance Tarrance wrote in a Jan. 5 analysis for Gallup. “Trump’s 20-point approval deficit in recent Gallup polling does not bode well for him, in part because none of the past five presidents saw an increase in their approval rating in the year before their first midterm.”

...The off-year and special elections conducted since Trump took office underscore the Republican challenges.

Democrats won governors’ offices by wide margins in New Jersey and Virginia while also capturing Republican seats in both states’ legislatures, as suburban voters shifted to Democratic candidates. In Alabama, Doug Jones became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from the state in 25 years in a race that featured a scandal-tarred and controversial Republican who divided his own party, even though he had Trump’s endorsement.

“That’s three pretty big canaries in the coal mine that ought to warn you that you’re headed into a turbulent period in the next election,” Cole said.

...Democrats improved their showing in well-educated, historically Republican areas in the 2016 and 2017 elections, so some hard-fought races in the fall will be in the suburbs. Among the House districts that may be in play are those of Representatives Rodney Frelinghuysen and Leonard Lance in New Jersey, John Culberson in the Houston area, Barbara Comstock in the Virginia suburbs near Washington, and Peter Roskam in the Chicago area.

For various reasons-- primarily the GOP-oriented 2018 map-- Giroux is less sanguine about Democratic chances for a Senate takeover. All the Democratic red-state incumbents would have to win and the Democrats would have to pull off wins from two of the worst Senate candidates in recent history-- both handpicked by Chuck Schumer who pretty much always picks losers-- putrid Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) and tepid, pointless Nevada nothing-burger Jacky Rosen. Or one of them plus someone the DSCC and the Democratic DC establishment has been ignoring, Beto O'Rourke. You can contribute to Beto's campaign-- and the other Senate candidates endorsed by Blue America-- by tapping on the ActBlue "Senate 2018" thermometer on the right.

But that doesn't include unexpected stumbles from Senate Democrats that could give the Republicans opportunities they shouldn't even have. Here are two: Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Trump won-- barely, and possibly with actual Russian vote tampering in 3 counties, Luzerne, Erie and Northampton-- Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes 2,970,733 to 2,926,441. That's 44,292 votes (0.72%). Casey is anti-Choice. He always votes that way-- as he did yesterday when he supported the Republicans' very extremist and probably unconstitutional 20-week abortion ban. (Also crossing the aisle on that one were Joe Manchin or West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana.) How turned off will parts of the Democratic base in Pennsylvania be by Casey's little reminder that he's as anti-Choice as any hateful Republican patriarchal goon who wants to interfere with women's ability to make their own health choices? How can Democrats denounce the GOP for voting that way when Casey and 2 other Democrats also did? Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowsky voted with the Democrats against the bill. Last time Casey faced the voters (2012) he beat Republican Tom Smith 3,021,364 (53.7%) to 2,509,132 (44.6%) and took all 3 counties the Kremlin tampered with for Trump, Erie, Luzerne and Northampton.

If the measure passes and is signed-- Ryan already got it passed by the House-- anyone performing an abortion on a woman who is more than 20 weeks pregnant would face a fine, up to five years’ jail time, or both. According to Planned Parenthood something like 99% of abortions occur before 21 weeks of pregnancy and those later on often involve severe fetal abnormalities or serious health risks to the woman.

New Jersey has a completely different nightmare brewing for the Democrats. It is not a swing state; it's a pretty safely blue state with a PVI of D+7. Hillary beat Trumpanzee there, winning their 16 electoral votes 2,148,278 (55.45%) to 1,601,933 (41.45%). So in 2012 Menendez, always a shady character but before the most recent scandals that rocked the politics of New Jersey, beat Republican Joe Kyrillos 1,987,680 (58.9%) to 1,329,534 (39.4%). Should be a safe seat, right? And it would be-- except for Menendez, who is adamantly refusing to resign.

Newark Star-Ledger columnist Tom Moran asked his readers to "try to envision Sen. Robert Menendez trying to manage his daily calendar when he's juggling his second trial on corruption charges with his campaign for re-election. Will he march in parades? Or will he attend the trial every day to save his neck?" He points out how dangerous-- actually he said "ridiculous"-- it is "in the Trump era, when a single Senate seat can tip the balance of power."

New Jersey voters haven't sent a Republican senator to Washington for half a century, and with Trump soiling the brand so badly, Democrats could win by picking a name out of the phone book.

Their only chance to lose this seat is to do exactly what they are doing-- rallying around Menendez with a unanimity that virtually ensures he will win the primary race on June 5, provided he's not sent to prison first.

Could Menendez win in November if he escapes conviction? Probably. The Cook Political Report rates him as the favorite today, even with the baggage. But that could change.

...Republicans have not chosen a candidate yet, but they are giddy about the prospects of Bob Hugin, a self-made millionaire and former Marine who told county chairmen recently that he would start the bidding by spending $20 million of his own money, and hopes to raise $40 million more, according to reliable sources in the GOP.

Imagine the flood of 30-second TV spots that money will buy. Menendez on a private jet to a luxury resort in the Caribbean, no charge. Menendez at a luxury hotel in Paris with a young woman, also gratis. Menendez hiding these gifts, despite the rules. Menendez doing favors for the man who paid for it all, his best pal, Salomon Melgen, a rich old man with a fondness for stray models, and now a convicted felon.

"Right now, a sitting Senator is vulnerable, and that creates an opportunity for us," says the state GOP chairman, Doug Steinhardt.

Think about the stakes. The repeal of Obamacare failed by one vote in the Senate, and the horrific tax bill passed by just three. Are Democratic leaders really that reckless?

Maybe not. Because there is a Plan B floating out there.

It goes like this: If Menendez is convicted, or so damaged that he's likely to lose, they will replace him, just as they replaced Sen. Bob Torricelli when he was under federal investigation during his 2002 re-election campaign.

Who would replace Menendez? Here's the leading theory among a long list of Democrats I asked over several weeks:

Rep. Donald Norcross (D-1st) would replace Menendez, answering a top priority of his brother George Norcross, who controls the biggest Democratic faction [faction?? The Star-Ledger isn't allowed to say "Machine," let alone "corrupt Machine?"] in the state Legislature.

Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-Gloucester) would leave the Statehouse to fill that vacant seat in Congress.

That would open Sweeney's top spot in the state Senate, which would go to someone loyal to Murphy, probably from northern New Jersey, for regional balance.

Can't get any worse? How about this stinky little scenario?

New Jersey politics are a mess. Chris Christie left the governor’s office stinking of corruption. Sen. Bob Menendez will seek re-election in November, less than a year after a hung jury declined to acquit him of bribery charges; a repeat trial is in the offing.

Menendez is among the least popular senators in the country, with an approval rating of 29 percent. He’s likely to be re-elected anyway, because New Jersey’s Republican Party is in shambles. Christie left office as the least popular governor in the country, with an approval rating of 19 percent. He won re-election in 2013 with 60 percent of the vote. His lieutenant governor and two-time running mate, Kim Guadagno, lost her race to replace him with just 42 percent of the vote.

...The Libertarian Party ought to take a stab at Menendez’s seat. And their candidate ought to be Alan Dershowitz... he isn’t a run-of-the-mill Democrat. He’s a member of a rare breed of originalist Democrats who oppose judicial activism and defend the inalienability of even the least trendy constitutional rights. He voted for Hillary Clinton in ’16 and prefers Joe Biden in 2020, but has on several occasions come to Trump’s philosophical aid. He defended the legality of Trump’s decision to fire FBI Director Jim Comey. He defended the legality of Trump’s travel ban. He’s defended Trump’s allegations of bias in the FBI’s Russia investigation, and he’s attacked the left for trying to delegitimize Trump’s presidency through innuendo and tele-psychiatry.

Dershowitz told Politico that he’s lost seven pounds since finding himself forced to defend Trump. He says his liberal friends don’t invite him to dinner anymore. No doubt John Adams had a similar experience when he agreed to defend the British soldiers who killed five Americans at the Boston Massacre. (That sounds hyperbolic-- and it is-- but really, does the half of the country that hates Trump hate him less than Colonial Boston hated those soldiers?)

All that said, the tsunami keeps on building. Another powerful close Ryan ally House Appropriations Committee chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ) made it clear yesterday that he's another rat deserting the sinking ship. He's the 9th House committee chairman to be resigning rather than face defeat in November. I've never seen anything like that before. And it's likely Ryan himself will soon announce he wants to spend more time with his own family. The Democratic establishment, by the way, have a conservative piece of crap they're running, someone sure to disappoint the base and lose the seat in the nest midterm, New Dem/EMILY's List garbage candidate Mikie Sherrill, a Wall Street criminal the DCCC is trying to pass off as a great and valiant military heroine. The only nice thing I've ever heard about her from New Jersey activists is that she probably won't turn out as bad as Josh Gottheimer... probably.

Political Corruption-- Plenty To Go Around For Both Contemptible King's Landing Parties

On Wednesday we briefly mentioned that corrupt sack of crap Robert Menendez (D-NJ) is probably going to prison-- and could wind up giving Trump the majority he needs in the Senate to pass his toxic agenda. That would pre-suppose Chris Christie naming Menendez's replacement. Tom Moran's column in yesterday's Star Ledger reassures people that though Menendez will probably be thrown out of the Senate, he won't happen until Christie is out of office and Phil Murphy is able to replace him (possibly with someone far worse, by the way, Donald Norcross, another corrupt bucket of excrement in the Jersey tradition).

One thing that is the most bipartisan in DC is corruption. Count on it. In an OpEd earlier this month for the Dallas News Ruth May noted that "Party loyalty is often cited as the reason that GOP leaders have not been more outspoken in their criticism of President Donald Trump and his refusal to condemn Russia's interference in the 2016 presidential election. Yet there may be another reason that top Republicans have not been more vocal in their condemnation. Perhaps it's because they have their own links to the Russian oligarchy that they would prefer go unnoticed. Donald Trump and the political action committees for Mitch McConnell, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Lindsey Graham, John Kasich and John McCain accepted $7.35 million in contributions from a Ukrainian-born oligarch who is the business partner of two of Russian president Vladimir Putin's favorite oligarchs and a Russian government bank."

She seems to have forgotten to mention that the Russian Mafia/Putin ally she's talking about, Warner Music owner Leonard Blavatnik, also gave big bucks to corrupt corporate Democrats like Chuck Schumer, Joe Biden, Joe Manchin, Evan Bayh, Rahm Emanuel, Joe Lieberman, Harold Ford and, of course Hillary Clinton. Sorry to be a party pooper but the Democratic Party lives in poop, essentially no less than the Republican Party. Over the weekend, Elena Schneider and Austin Wright, reporting for Politico told the story about how Democrats are exploiting GOP ethics woes for the midterms. I hope it's Joe Crowley, arguably the most corrupt man to ever serve in Congress, leading the charge against the GOP. But, yeah, there are plenty of ultra corrupt Republicans. I hope at least one or two of them wind up sharing a cell with Bob Menendez.

Duncan Hunter’s Southern California district isn’t normally a serious target for Democrats. But a criminal investigation into allegations of campaign funds for personal use-- including flying his pet rabbit across the country-- isn't exactly normal either.

Hunter is one of a handful of House Republicans in ethical hot water that could put their typically safe seats at risk. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is planning to exploit their troubles in 2018 in the hopes of notching long-shot victories that could be the difference between winning the House or falling just short.

...Democrats are forging ahead. Among the incumbents on their early target list are California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, whose ties to Russian officials have come under scrutiny and was once warned by the FBI that Russian spies were trying to recruit him; New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, who faces an ethics complaint from an outside watchdog group over a letter that some perceived as targeting an activist; New York Rep. Chris Collins, whose stock-market investments are under investigation; Montana Rep. Greg Gianforte, who pleaded guilty to assault for attacking a reporter; and California Rep. Devin Nunes, whose handling of classified information is being investigated by the House Ethics Committee.

Republicans are quick to point out Democrats’ own ethical dust-ups, such as former Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s refusal for months to fire an aide at the center of a criminal investigation potentially affecting dozens of Democratic lawmakers. (Wasserman Schultz's South Florida district is heavily Democratic.)

In California, Rep. Ami Bera’s father is currently serving jail time after being convicted of election fraud in connection with his son’s campaigns for the competitive Sacramento-area district in 2010 and 2012. And in Pennsylvania, the feds accused Rep. Robert Brady of paying an opponent $90,000 to drop out and then trying to cover it up. (Brady hasn't been charged and denies any wrongdoing.)

"Democrats are living in a glass house on this one,” said Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Referring to the Wasserman Schultz aide, he added: “After a staffer for multiple House Democrats was recently arrested for bank fraud while trying to flee the country to Pakistan, they lost any shred of credibility on ethical issues."

But Democrats believe the accountability messaging in individual GOP districts where incumbents are hamstrung by ethics problems puts independents and soft Republican voters within their reach.

“When the names of ethically challenged Republicans keep piling up-- Hunter, Collins, Rohrabacher and Gianforte with more to come, it’s no longer about a single person,” said John Lapp, former DCCC executive director. “It becomes a disturbing pattern of systemic Republican congressional corruption.”

Just up the coast of California, one of Rohrabacher’s Democratic opponents, Harley Rouda, is calling for the FBI to investigate the incumbent's “political and financial ties to Russia." The congressman met with Julian Assange and is a longtime supporter of the Russian government. He's often mentioned in news coverage of the ongoing investigation into Russia’s attempts to undermine the 2016 presidential election.

Those ethical questions are popping up in Rouda’s digital ads attacking Rohrabacher, which exhort voters to “clean house.”

Rohrabacher, who's cruised to reelection for years, has drawn two well-funded Democratic challengers, Rouda and Hans Keirstead.

“The cold hard reality is there hasn’t been a competitive Democratic campaign [in the past] to inform the electorate of Dana’s failed and reckless agenda,” said Dave Jacobson, Rouda’s consultant on the race.

In New Jersey, an ethics watchdog group filed a complaint against Frelinghuysen after the congressman wrote a letter to a board member of a bank singling out one of its employees as a liberal activist. Saily Avelenda wasn’t fired or asked to resign, but she told Politico that she felt pressure to not publicize her ties to a local progressive group.

Frelinghuysen, a 22-year incumbent, hasn’t faced a serious challenge in years. But Mikie Sherrill, a Navy veteran and a former federal prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney’s Office, hopes to break the streak. She said Frelinghuysen’s ethical troubles come up “in community meetings, at coffee meet-and-greets,” as it’s “part of the larger conversation as to why we need to have change here and he’s not acting like a leader.”

In New York, House Ethics Committee investigators are questioning Collins’ role in recruiting investors for an Australian biotech company. But Collins’ defenders call the probe a “witch hunt.”

“I think it’s funny that the party of Robert Menendez, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Corrine Brown is issuing guidance on running campaigns based on ethics,” said Chris Grant, Collins’ campaign consultant. Menendez is about to go to trial for alleged fraud and bribery, and Brown, a former congresswoman, was found guilty of misusing funds.

Earlier this week, Gianforte was ordered to be photographed and fingerprinted for assaulting a reporter, which could soon give his opponents the chance to use a mugshot in future ads.

Nancy Ohanian: Bought and Paid Justice

Profile In Cowardice: Rodney Frelinghuysen

Frelinghuysen doesn't do town halls... he goes to pancake breakfasts

When the deranged body slammer won the Montana special election, Wall Street-owned former bankster Steve Stivers (R-OH), the head of the NRCC-- the GOP's version of the DCCC-- said, "Nancy Pelosi and liberals in Washington were rejected again" but that "the best way for Greg to thank them would be to apologize for his actions, and I am glad he has done so." Jessica Wehrman, writing for the biggest newspaper in Stivers' district, the Columbus Dispatch, asserted yesterday that "Stivers knew that his job protecting the GOP’s House majority would be tough. But there’s no way he could’ve known he was signing up for this. Saddled with a polarizing president, Stivers, 52, also faces the perils of history: Midterm elections during a president’s first term historically have been lousy for the House majority party. The party has struggled to unite on issues such as health care. And Democrats, galvanized by Trump, have shown up to protest at town hall meetings of congressmen, often boisterously."

One of the seats Stivers will have to protect is the central New Jersey seat held by Rodney Frelinghuysen who was first elected in 1994 and has never had a serious electoral challenge. The scion of a long political pedigree going back to the American Revolution-- although several of ancestors fought on the British side against the Americans-- and of two sources of great wealth-- Proctor and Gamble and Ballantine beer. Frelinghuysen, an inbred goof-ball who was a spoiled, poor student and has had everything handed to him on a silver platter, normally wins reelection with between 60 and 70% of the votes. Congressman Frelinghuysen's net worth-- though he never worked a day in his life-- is over $50 million. His worst performance was last year (58%), when Trump's toxicity in the affluent New Jersey suburbs dragged him down. Romney had beaten Obama in the R+6 district 53-47% but Trump underperformed, taking the district narrowly, 48.8% to 47.9%. Next year Frelinghuysen is likely to face well-liked, well-financed and very much admired Assemblyman John McKeon. Over the weekend, a NY Times article by Nancy Solomon highlighted why Stivers is concerned about Frelinghuysen and his ability to hold onto his seat.

Frelinghuysen got a ton of really bad press in his district a couple of weeks ago for complaining about a political activist to her boss. The woman, a senior vice president at the bank, was forced to resign, primarily because the damage Frelinghuysen, as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, could do to the bank. Frelinghuysen will have to explain his behavior to the House Ethics Committee and-- more importantly0-- to angry voters in Morris, Essex and Passaic counties. Solomon write that "Singling out a lone constituent-- and being caught doing so-- suggests, perhaps, a feeling of disquiet. 'It seemed a particularly meanspirited and vengeful thing for Congressman Frelinghuysen to do-- a man who never had a reputation of being that kind of a bare-knuckles fighter,' Rutgers political science Professor Ross] Baker said. 'I think he senses that the ground is shifting from under him.' Solomon's point though is that Trump’s election and the Republican hold on Congress are forcing a confused and weak Frelinghuysen to choose between the party’s crackpot far right leadership and more moderate suburban constituents back home. And then the kicker:

Frelinghuysen’s response to Mr. Trump’s budget proposal has been lukewarm, and he opposed the first House Republican health plan. But, reportedly threatened with losing his chairmanship, he went along with conservatives and supported the House health plan’s second version.

Back home, Mr. Trump’s election has given rise to NJ 11th for Change, a group that has held weekly protests at Mr. Frelinghuysen’s office, jammed his phone lines and called on him to hold a town-hall meeting, which he has refused to do.

He did recently hold a telephone call-in event, which allowed him to cut off callers when they disagreed. His frustration showed. “For people who have jammed our lines and made it difficult for us to meet our constituent needs, it would be nice for you to back off,” Mr. Frelinghuysen said at one point.

Mr. Frelinghuysen’s 11th Congressional District, which includes Morris County and parts of Essex, Passaic and Sussex Counties, is what New Jerseyans call Republican horse country. It is one of the richest and most highly educated districts in the country, and the estates in Mr. Frelinghuysen’s hometown, Harding Township, make it one of the 25 richest ZIP codes in America, according to Forbes magazine.

Perfect district for Rodney Frelinghuysen XXIV (or whatever number he is) but antipathy for Trump and the crap Ryan is doing in Congress are an especially terrible match for the well-educated 11th district. Worse yet, as his party has come more and more under the thrall of neo-Confederate radicals in the House, ole Rodney himself has moved further and further right politically. No more Mr. Mainstream Conservative. He's got a nut-case voting record now. "Frelinghuysen," wrote Solomon, "once supported abortion rights but in recent years has voted to limit access to abortion. He also opposes gun control, gay marriage and regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions." This is not where most voters in NJ-11 stand. Ex-Governor Tom Kean is insisting that Frelinghuysen, "despite his voting record, is still a moderate." How is someone a "moderate" if their voting record is extreme right? One House staffer from New Jersey put it bluntly: "Frelinghuysen has no integrity at all... He sold out whatever he once believed in so he could get-- and then keep-- his committee chair... It's kind of sad. He ought to retire. In fact, there are a lot of rumors that he's doing a Hamlet routine about it a couple times a week."

New Jersey: Defeating A Frelinghuysen

When I was very young, my family used to rent a summer bungalow in Ft. Freedom, New Jersey, northwest of Morristown in what is now Rodney Frelinghuysen's congressional district (NJ-11). He inherited this political domain from the Frelinghuysen dynasty and his great wealth from his mother's family, Beatice Proctor an heir to the Proctor and Gamble fortune. His father represented the area from 1953 to 1975 and his grandfather, Freddy Frelinghuysen was a New Jersey senator (and a vice presidential nominee under Henry Clay in 1844. Frelinghuysen's great-great-great-great-grandfather, another Freddy Frelinghuysen, was one of the framers of the U.S. Constitution and later a U.S. Senator from New Jersey. The current inbred goof-ball, Rodney Procter Frelinghuysen the 4th or 5th or 6th, was a spoiled, poor student but everything has always been handed to him on a silver platter. And if he didn't have enough from the GOP, the DCCC has never challenged him and has been giving him free passes to reelection since 1994. He normally wins reelection with well over 60% of the vote, sometimes with over 70%, against Democrats with no support and no money. Last year's 194,299 (58.0%) to 130,162 (38.9%) was his narrowest-ever win. Maybe his support for Trump dragged him down. Romney had beaten Obama in the R+6 district 53-47% but Señor Trumpanzee underperformed, taking the district narrowly, 48.8% to 47.9%.

That caught the DCCC's attention and they're now saying they're interested in supporting a candidate. Two weak candidates have put themselves forward, Jack Gebbia and Mikie Sherrill but locals-- as well as the DCCC-- are eager to recruit progressive West Orange Assemblyman John McKeon. Aside from an excellent voting record and record of leadership in the Assembly, in New Jersey's corrupt political cesspool, McKeon is a rare incumbent with a good reputation. As far back as March, Politico was speculating that Frelinghuysen’s streak of effortless elections may come to an end in 2018, just as he’s at the height of his power as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. And that was before he flip-flopped on TrumpCare, first claiming he couldn't vote for it and then-- even as the House Freedom Caucus made it a worse bill-- decided to vote for it anyway.

Anti-Trump activists have incessantly called on Frelinghuysen to hold a town hall somewhere in North Jersey’s 11th District, which includes all or parts of Morris, Essex Passaic and Sussex counties. He’s refused, so they’ve protested at his office asking "Where's Rodney?" and held mock town halls. The recently-started Facebook group “NJ 11th for Change,” through which protests against Frelinghuysen are publicized, has more than 7,000 members.

And now, NJ 11th for Change has a super PAC, founded last month by Google executive Jonathan Bellack and local bank executive Saily Avelenda. Organizers claim it raised $10,000 in its first day and another $10,000 in its first week simply through seeking contributions on Facebook.

“We’re not your traditional super PAC,” said Debra Caplan, who serves on the super PAC’s board and on the steering committee of the larger NJ 11th for Change organization. “We’re a citizens super PAC. We’re a group of ordinary people who decided to start a super PAC because we want to be able to create material and distribute information about what’s happening in the congressional district and things that are coming down the line.

...Critics point to Frelinghuysen's decreasing vote ratings by groups like Planned Parenthood and his increasing ratings with groups like the National Rifle Association.

Redistricting in 2011 didn’t do Frelinghuysen any favors by taking away some conservative territory and adding some Democratic towns, including part of the liberal bastion of Montclair, in Essex County. In 2010, the district had 150,000 Republicans to 100,000 Democrats. Now, it has 165,000 Republicans and 152,000 Democrats.

...Matt Hale, a professor of political science at Seton Hall University, said Frelinghuysen could be vulnerable.

“The anger that people are feeling toward Donald Trump seems to be spilling over all over New Jersey. I do think that could crystalize into an effective opposition,” he said.

Caplan said several people have expressed interest in challenging the 70-year-old Frelinghuysen. Only one Democrat, however, has publicly entertained the notion: Assemblyman John McKeon, who comes from a Democratic part of the district in suburban Essex County.

Even with a super PAC doing some of the lifting, whomever runs against Frelinghuysen will likely be financially outgunned. As chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Frelinghuysen, who in the last election raised $2 million-- half of it from corporate PACs-- despite token opposition, will not have trouble raising money.

Frelinghuysen rakes in immense sums (bribes) from war contactors and Big PhRMA and in the last cycle spent $1,669,366 although his 3 opponents, Democrat Joe Wenzel, Libertarian Jeff Hetrick and independent Tom Depasquale spent a combined total of... zero. None had even raised the $5,000 that would trigger an FEC report. McKeon, on the other hand, is a strong fund-raiser and would certainly be the first opponent to give Frelinghuysen a real run.

Like Fathers... Like Sons-- Or Worse

John Sarbanes, a progressive 40-year-old, nose-to-the-grindstone Maryland Democratic congressman, is kind of the odd man out when it comes to congressional offspring. John represents a district, the 3rd, once represented by his father, Senator Paul Sarbanes. John an alum of Princeton and Harvard, is widely considered a serious, thoughtful, hardworking Rep., very different from most of the sons of a congressional parent. Yesterday a far more typically incompetent son of an already grotesquely incompetent former congressional dad-- Ben Quayle/Brock Landers-- gave his maiden speech on the House floor, before hitching a ride on Air Force 1 and accompanying the gracious man he called, in a distinctly reptilian manner, "the worst president in history" just a few months ago. Already tied for the 354th worst member of Congress, Quayle/Landers can boast a perfect zero score in every single category surveyed by Progressive Punch since he took the oath of office. There's no reason to believe he will ever go beyond the zero mark.

Of course Quayle/Landers and Sarbanes are hardly the only fortunate sons to have followed their father's footsteps into Congress. Rand Paul (R-KY) already disgraced his family name by pointing out that-- qualified after self-certifying himself as an eye doctor-- that right-wing terrorist Jared Loughner is a paranoid schizophrenic, although his rambling "philosophy" sounds shockingly like the philosophy of the Paul Family. And, like the Pauls, he's even a fan of the lunatic fringe author Rand was named for, Ayn Rand.

Yesterday's L.A. Times pointed out that experts tend to agree "that several oft-repeated phrases and concepts-- his fixation on grammar conspiracies, currency and the "second United States Constitution"-- seem derived from concepts explored with regularity among elements of the far right. 'What you can see across the board in his writings is the idea that you can't trust the government-- that the government engages in mind control against its citizens,' said Mark Potok of the Southern Poverty Law Center, which has long monitored the radical right. Loughner's assertion that he would not 'pay debt with a currency that's not backed by gold and silver' is a running theme among right-wing opponents of the Federal Reserve system," and is the ultimate in the Paultardism shared by father and son.

Funny enough, it was a piece in the NY Times last week about how badly Andrew Cuomo is going wrong, that got me thinking about how political kids should not generally be encouraged to go into the family business. Mario Cuomo was never in Congress but he was an exceptional governor of New York. His son promises to be among the worst in the state's history, for working families and for the Democratic Party. And there's an endless list of godawful Democratic sons far worse than accomplished fathers-- Dan Boren (OK) and Mark Pryor (AR) especially stand out-- as well as some who are competing with already mediocre or awful parents, like Dan Lipinski (IL) and Kendrick Meek (FL), the first child to follow a congressional mother into the House. In his book, Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell points to the headstarts in the family business-- what he calls the "10,000 hour rule"-- that give offspring a headstart on mastering their parent's jobs.

In 1929 Paul John Kvale followed former Minnesota Congressman Ole Juulson Kvale into the House, a mention of which I stumbled across in a story I found in an old issue of Time Magazine, that was actually urging Minnesotans to elect another son of a Congressman, pro-Nazi fly-boy Charles Lindbergh. The story starts off on the right foot-- "primogeniture and hereditary public office have no place in U. S. tradition"-- and then almost immediately veers off into an ominous direction.

This fact, however, did not last week deter the voters of the 7th Minnesota District from electing by a two-to-one majority Paul John Kvale (pronounced "Ka-volley") of Benson to the Congressional seat for six years occupied by his father, the Rev. Ole John Kvale, whose charred body was last month found in his burned summer cottage (TIME, Sept. 23). Like his father whom he, the eldest of six sons, served as secretary in Washington, Son Kvale was chosen as a Farmer-Laborite and will be the sole representative of that party in the House. The new Congressman is an engaging young man, thoroughly Nordic in appearance, thoroughly accommodating in manner.

The Congressional District adjoining Son Kvale's in Minnesota might offer a spectacular opportunity for the perpetuation of another father & son tradition in U. S. politics. From that district came the late Congressman Charles Augustus Lindbergh, father of official No. 1 U. S. Hero. The late Congressman Lindbergh left his seat in 1917. Son Lindbergh then lacked ten years of the constitutional age (25) for House membership. Many have been the suggestions that Hero Lindbergh should now attempt to succeed to his father's old seat in Congress. Against these suggestions arise three mighty obstacles: 1) Col. Lindbergh lacks a Minnesota residence. 2) Short, smiling Harold Knutson who took the Lindbergh seat a dozen years ago is firmly entrenched in the Republican organization of the House where he serves Speaker Longworth as whip (chief aide-de-camp) and from which he has no desire to be dislodged even by Hero No. 1 of the U. S. 3) Lindbergh Sr. made his political reputation as a radical. Col. Lindbergh has comfortable, conservative political views, if any. Many another son has followed his father into high office. Only one President's son has become President (John Adams-- John Quincy Adams); only one President's grandson has become President (William Henry Harrison-- Benjamin Harrison). But two Senators' sons now sit in the Senate: Frederick Hale of Maine whose sire was the late great Eugene Hale (1836-1918) and Robert Marion La Follette of Wisconsin, the Peter Pannish offspring of sturdy "Battle Bob" (1855-1925). In the House today is found a rare grandfather-father-son tradition of service in the ancient and honorable family of Tucker from Virginia. Henry St. George Tucker (1780-1848) served in the 14th and 15th Congress. His chief distinction: a tirade and a vain vote in 1816 against increased pay for Congressmen which he refused to take himself. John Randolph Tucker (1823-1897) served from the 44th to the 50th Congress. Henry St. George Tucker, 76, is now serving his ninth noncontinuous Congressional term since 1889. His chief distinction: a tirade and a vote in 1927 against increased pay for Congressmen which, according to family tradition, he refuses to take himself.

Time had a different paragraph policy back then. I'm shocked they didn't mention any Frelinghuysens. Today Rodney P. Frelinghuysen represents New Jersey's wealthiest district (the 11th)-- second most affluent congressional district in the U.S.-- but starting in 1793, four Frelinghuysens represented New Jersey in the U.S. Senate and Rodney's father, Peter Hood Ballantine Frelinghuysen, Jr., was elected to Congress in 1952 and served until his retirement in 1974. In 2000 Michael Moore tried to get a potted plant (a ficus) on the ballot as Frelinghuysen's opponent.

Recently Illinois voters were smart enough to reject the uber corrupt son of uber-corrupt former Congressman (and House Speaker) Denny Hastert. It looks like the fix is already in though to make Harry Reid's son a Member of Congress from Nevada's new aborning congressional district (in return for making Joe Heck's swing district more Republican-friendly). Probably the worst case of a son taking a House seat on his father's name is Dan Boren, a slow-witted and craven Blue Dog who represents eastern Oklahoma. His father, David Boren, was a popular governor and U.S. Senator (and closet case) and his grandfather, Lyle Boren, a far right anti-union kook, also represented the area. Presumably because the two of them were Democrats, the ultra-conservative Dan, has maintained pro-forma ties to that party, although he votes more frequently with the GOP and was George Bush's favorite Democrat.