It's Like The End Of The World-- Though Not For Florida's GOP Climate Change Deniers Like Neal Dunn

It's hard hearing the cracking voices of our countrymen and women from the Florida Panhandle whose lives have been turned inside out by Hurricane Michael. Some of lost their homes or businesses; some lost both. There were 17 American deaths, 8 in Florida, attributed to the strongest hurricane to strike the Panhandle in recorded history, the third strongest to ever hit the U.S. mainland. It made landfall near Mexico Beach as a Category 4 storm. Insured damage is estimated to be $8 billion so far. Damages to Mexico Beach and Panama City in FL-02 was pretty catastrophic.

Last night the BBC reported that Mexico Beach was virtually flattened and nearly wiped off the map. The Columbia Journalism Review called it a climate change story, even though the initial reporting on Michael by the NY Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal failed to mention Climate Change at all. None of the reporting I saw did either. "This is particularly disappointing," wrote Pete Vernon, "because, just days before Michael made landfall, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report with a dismal assessment of current global conditions and a warning that the future, soon approaching, is much more dire than previously feared."

Climate scientists are cautious not to directly link rising sea levels and warming temperatures to any individual storm, but a basic theory holds: warmer water and air, along with rising sea levels, will lead to storms of greater intensity. Even though a straight line between climate change and Michael cannot yet be drawn (researchers will later be able to model the actual intensity of the storm compared to computer generated models), coverage of major storms that fails to address profound environmental problems fails to provide audiences with a full picture.

As our understanding of the impact of climate change expands, some journalists have taken up the challenge of bringing the topic into the discussion of storms like Michael. “Hurricane Michael isn’t a truly ‘natural disaster,’ John D. Sutter, a CNN investigative reporter, wrote. “Neither was Harvey in Houston. Nor Maria in Puerto Rico. Yet we continue to use that term. Doing so-- especially in the era of climate change-- is misleading if not dangerous.” In Thursday’s Times, Henry Fountain, a climate reporter, explained the “triple threat from climate change: more rain in larger storms on rising seas.” The Atlantic’s Robertson Meyer explained how Michael’s sudden growth could be tied to rising sea levels and warming waters, writing that “scientists won’t formally know whether climate change played a role in Michael’s rapid intensification for several months. But local weather experts have already said Michael is exactly what they would expect to see in a climate-changed world.”

Writing on the UN report, the Post’s Margaret Sullivan argued that “when it comes to climate change, we-- the media, the public, the world-- need radical transformation, and we need it now.” That transformation could include reporting on climate changes impact on any number of issues, from the economy to immigration to warfare. With the country focused on coverage of Michael’s destruction, the opportunity to bring climate change into the discussion is there for the taking, and it shouldn’t be ignored.

The congressman who represents Mexico Beach and Panama City is freshman Republican Neal Dunn, who replaced wretched Blue Dog Gwen Graham, who fled the area when redistricting made it harder for a Democrat to win. Although Dunn is probably best known for having an office lousy with sexual harassment, he also has a record as a legislator. Basically, he's just a Trump-worshipping backbencher in a safe red district. The PVI is R+18 and Trump won the district 66.2% to 30.6%. Dunn beat his Democratic opponent, Walter Dartland, 67.3% to 29.9%, after dumping $567,701 of his own money into the race. This cycle he's facing Bob Rackleff who's raised $165,478 to Dunn's $1,182,655. The 538 Forecaster gives Dunn a better than 99 in 100 chance to win next month.

Ironically, Dunn is on the House Science Committee. The League of Conservation Voters gives him a 3% environmental score. As for climate change, he's, proudly, a denier. In April 2016 he told the Panama City News Herald that he's "sure human activity plays some role, but I don't think the science is clear on how much is man-made and how much is natural. What I do know is that the United States should not follow the path of the global warming alarmists like the Obama administration who wants us to unilaterally handicap... industry with over-burdensome EPA regulations." There's no pulse left in Mexico Beach at all and it will be months before most of his district recovers.

Most of the Florida congressmembers, like Dunn, are virulent Climate Change deniers, who all oppose regulating the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. Our top scientific institutions, the U.S. military, NASA, NOAA, and nearly all credible experts say pollution is causing our planet to get warmer. Still, false information designed to discredit climate science is actively promoted by organizations with ties to fossil fuels, and many leaders in Congress are also spreading disinformation for political reasons. While fossil fuel companies are generating enormous profits, we ultimately will bear the costs associated with extreme weather and rising sea levels. Representatives for Florida in the United States Congress have an important role in supporting efforts to solve the issue. They are virtually all Climate Change deniers, including Ron DeSantis, currently running for Governor. Republican voters don't seem to connect the dots... yet.

There's no reason to believe Dunn will get any fewer votes than he would have before the Hurricane-- except for the 8 who died in his district. I wonder what it will take to wake these folks up. I especially would love to see how folks in Mexico Beach vote in November.

Was It A Mistake To Spend Millions Of Dollars To Elect Right-Wing Democrat Gwen Graham In Florida?

Florida's 2 worst congressional Democrats

Almost a year ago, when she first declared her candidacy for the Florida panhandle seat that gaffe-prone Republican Steve Sutherland had won from reactionary Blue Dog Allen Boyd in 2010, I managed to contact Bob Graham's daughter Gwen. I spoke with her while she was driving southwest from Tallahassee towards Panama City. My first impressions were that she was "well spoken and idealistic-sounding but that she didn't want to go beyond generalities she had down by rote, like 'I want to be a different type of representative to find a common ground with Democrats and Republicans.' When I asked her about specifics like the Chained CPI and marriage equality she abruptly told me her campaign manager said it was time for her to take another call." I can take a hint. "Steve Israel," I thought to myself, "is going to love her." She was one of only two Democratic challengers that year who beat a Republican incumbent. In November Graham came out with 125,132 votes (50.4%) to Southerland's 122,939 (49.6%).

Party registration in 14-county FL-02 favors Democrats 50.1% to 42.1%. Between 21 and 22% of registered voters are blacks and Democrats have to sweep that community and still keep nearly 40% of white voters to win. Graham's campaign worked very hard and succeeded in doing that.

The campaign and its communications staff came up with what may be the best campaign slogan of the cycle: The North Florida Way. By summer of 2014, when Gwen Graham decided to go on air (and had the airwaves to herself for several months), the slogan was used in every spot. Graham promised to work across the aisle and derided the partisan nature of both Congress and Congressman Southerland. She promised to work for the betterment of the community and to always represent North Florida’s interests in Congress.

This tactic was brilliant. By going on television early and ensuring the voters she was "one of them," Graham had helped inoculate herself to the eventual attacks that would come from Southerland and his allies, as well as subdue the district’s bias against electing federal Democrats. The eventual attacks that came were predictable– that Graham was just a Tallahassee liberal who would support Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Graham pushed back, saying she would not back Pelosi for speaker and argued that new leadership was needed in both parties. Graham also hit Southerland for his partisan voting record, for not voting to end of the Government shutdown, and his vote against the Violence Against Women Act, after he claimed to have supported it.

FL-02 was unfriendly territory for Charlie Crist that same night and helped reelect Governor Rick Scott, while boosting both Senator Bill Nelson and Graham. Because of her legendary father's connections, Graham managed to outraise and outspend Southerland, $3,663,383 to $2,971,841. Third party spending in the district was very heavy-- $8,322,425, and almost all of it was negative. The DCCC put in $2,726,976 (along with another $867,980 from their House Majority PAC) while the NRCC kicked down $2,364,250. The NRA put in over $280,000 for Southerland and various Koch-funded big-bucks GOP groups piled on with over another million. Right-of-center Beltway Democratic groups like the Blue Dogs, EMILY's List ($78,165) and the New Dems, as well as undiscerning, lockstep environmental and union groups put money down for Graham to buy anti-Southerland ads.

All that effort and money spent on behalf of Graham has bought the Democrats a seat. Was it worth it? On her very first vote, Graham refused to vote for Nancy Pelosi and cast her ballot for fellow Blue Dog Jim Cooper of Tennessee. Now, almost 3 months later, she has the distinction of having amassed the single worst voting record of any Democrat in the House. Her ProgressivePunch crucial vote score is 10.0. Basically, she votes against progressive legislation 90% of the time, tied with over 20 Republicans and worse than another half dozen Republicans. Boehner can count on her across the board to help disguise his radical right agenda as "bipartisan" to a credulous, lazy mass media.

So what good is she? Although a Member of Congress for less than 3 months, she has already floated her name out there as a prospect Democrats might want to nominate for the Marco Rubio Senate seat. What a dreadful thought! And maybe even too much for the pathetic Florida Democratic Party Establishment, which seems to be coalescing behind another right-wing Democrat, Patrick Murphy. His own ProgressivePunch Crucial Vote score is the second worst of any Florida Democrat-- 11.11.

With a PVI of R+6, the DCCC has already added her to their Frontline List of endangered candidates and will likely waste more millions of dollars on her. Again... for what? More votes for the Boehner's pro-business/anti-family agenda? A Democratic bench that is thoroughly rotten and uninspiring? This week, the DCCC is making a charm offensive among progressive incumbents to persuade them to contribute money to keep reactionaries like Graham and Murphy-- as well as the crappy new recruits like Emily Cain in Maine and Monica Vernon in Iowa-- in Congress. Graham has voted 90% of the time against progressive initiatives and Murphy 88% of the time. Why would a progressive want to see either of them win again, let along contribute money to the effort? Monica Vernon (like Murphy) is a rich Republican opportunist trying to win a Democratic seat. There is something seriously wrong with the DCCC that isn't getting fixed and isn't likely to get fixed until there's a very serious changing of the guard inside the House Democratic Caucus.

Gwen

UPDATE Democrats Deserve A Choice

This is the letter Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida President Susan Smith has released to caucus members and supporters this morning.

Dear Caucus Members and Supporters:

Florida Democrats deserve a real choice in 2016. We can let Washington insiders determine our U.S. Senate candidate or we can build a grassroots movement to nominate a strong progressive with a record of fighting for the issues and the values that we hold dear.

The Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida should lead the way in supporting a candidate with a bold record of fighting for our issues and values.

We need a champion who believes in fairness and genuine opportunity. Someone who supports working families while protecting the most vulnerable among us. Someone who understands that security means being strong internationally and safe at home.

Progressives are often accused of having a litmus test for candidates. If having a litmus test means that we expect a Democratic candidate to support policies that benefit the 99% and not just greedy CEOs who have rigged the game, then we are guilty. If it means opposing trade deals like the Trans Pacific Partnership that benefit multinational corporations at the expense of working families, then we are guilty.

If it means that we want a candidate with a history of fighting for the rights of women to make their own healthcare decisions, to be paid equally for equal work, and to live free from violence, then we are guilty.

If it means that our candidate must be on the frontlines in the battles to give legal status to young Dreamers, and to protect voting rights for African Americans, and marriage rights for the LGBT community, then we are guilty.

Our litmus test would also require that a Democratic champion have a record of fighting for alternative energy sources. U.S. foreign policy should not be held hostage to Middle East oil dependency, and Big Oil should not determine our environmental protections at home. Our champion will make the safety of Florida's precious land and water resources a top priority.

The Democratic Party is at a crossroads. We can no longer nominate "Anybody But" candidates. We must fight for leadership and representation that is bold and inspiring. The Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida is ready to engage in finding and promoting that candidate. Who will be our champion? Please tell us your choice for the 2016 Democratic U.S. Senatorial candidate by emailing us at dpcfsurvey@gmail.com.

Sounds like a description of Alan Grayson. Does not sound like Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Patrick Murphy or Gwen Graham.

Why Would Any Normal Person Give A Damn If Dull Conservatives Gwen Graham Or Steve Southerland Wins?

If you live Inside the Beltway instead of in America, there's a decent chance your involvement with politics centers on Team Red vs Team Blue horse races. And I'm sure that Abby Livingston from Roll Call really and truly meant it today when she tweeted this:

Excluding friends and family and horse race aficionados, there is virtually no reason to be interested in the FL-02 race. It pits a run-of-the-mill, extremely unexceptional conservative Republican against a run-of-the-mill, extremely unexceptional conservative Democrat. The Republican is worse than the Democrat. He would do more harm than she would. Neither is any good and the seat would be better left empty than to either reelect Steve Southerland or replace him with Blue Dog Gwen Graham. Both want careers at the public trough but neither has presented a reason for bestowing that honor on them. Not that the Beltway media worries about that kind of thing. Who's up, who's down, who's all around… that's what they care about in DC. Dear Abby:

A new Democratic poll shows Gwen Graham with a slight lead over Rep. Steve Southerland II, R-Fla., but still within the margin of error.

Graham, the likely Democratic nominee, had the support of 45 percent of survey participants, while Southerland trailed with 43 percent. Eleven percent of respondents were undecided.

Ocean Champions, an environmental group that endorses Democratic candidates, commissioned the poll.

The margin of error is 4.4 points, which means the survey reinforces the view of many national operations hold on Florida’s 2nd District race: It’s a dead heat. The race is rated Tossup/Tilts Republican by the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call, and Southerland is on Roll Call’s most recent list of the 10 Most Vulnerable Members.

As for the incumbent, 42 percent of respondents viewed his job performance favorably, while 47 percent viewed him negatively. Southerland is running for a third term and was the subject of negative advertising in previous campaigns.

Graham scored positive marks from respondents: 39 percent of those surveyed viewed her positively, while 15 percent saw her in a negative light.

As of the June 30 FEC deadline, Southerland has raised $1,980,194, spent $687,227 and was sitting on $1,394,749. Graham's daughter had raised $2,354,222, spent $779,702 and had $1,574,521 cash-on-hand. This race, though is probably going to come down to what outside groups spend in the district. The DCCC, their House Majority PAC and Ocean Champions have already spent $285,784 slamming Southerland and the NRCC and NRA have spent $111,552 attacking Graham (like in the ad up top).

In 2012 Southerland won this R+6 district against state Sen. Al Lawson 175,842 (53%) to 157,599 (47%). Lawson took the biggest county, Leon (Tallahassee) with 62%, as well as Jefferson and Gadsden counties, but Southerland spent all the rest, 11 counties-- several with insane margins, like 80% in Holmes and 73% in Bay. Obama also won just those 3 counties that same day but not only did Democratic Senator Bill Nelson do better in the 3 Democratic counties, he also won Liberty and Franklin counties and held down Republican Connie Mack's winning margins in the red-leaning counties to help him win the district. Yes, it can be done. But can Bob Graham's daughter do it? Probably. She's very conservative and uses Republican talking points to frame he arguments, hoping Democratic base votes won't notice and will still come out and vote for her.

Yesterday Rove's PAC, Crossroads announced their first round of congressional targets of the cycle:

• Ami Bera (New Dem-CA)- $895,000
• Scott Peters (New Dem-CA)- $705,000
• Brad Schneider (New Dem-IL)- $640,000
• Bill Enyart (proto-New Dem-IL)- $565,000
• Nick Rahall (Blue Dog-WV)- $335,000

Smart targeting; Rove is going after undistinguished conservative Democrats, all Big Business shills, who have minimal connection to any kind of progressive grassroots. Their voting records range from worse than so-so to absolutely unsupportable. Next up will be Rove's attack schedule against Democratic challengers like Graham's daughter, which will wipe out her financial advantage and probably neutralize her favorable/unfavorable advantage as well. Steve Israel's miserable batch of conservative recruits are mostly doomed. Graham's daughter may have a better chance that most of them, but betting on her is a fool's errand since a- she'll probably lose and b- even if she wins, it just means another rotten Blue Dog crossing the aisle consistently to vote with the GOP. (Actually Graham's daughter has been endorsed by both factions of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, the Blue Dogs and the New Dems and by another mainstay of that wing, EMILY's List, who have been busy losing races all cycle, the latest two being dreadful conservatives, Donna Mercado Kim and Colleen Hanabusa, in Hawaii.) This morning the DCCC released this ad slamming Southerland and Graham's own ad is below. Any way to guess which party she's with from her ad?

FL-02-- A Teabagger vs A Mystery Meat Blue Dog

2 Grahams

Exactly a month over a year ago, a friend of mine suggested I get to know Bob Graham's daughter, Gwen, just as she was announcing that she would run for the Tallahassee-based House seat (FL-02) occupied by undertaker and teabagger Steve Southerland. That first encounter with another quintessential Steve Israel "mystery meat" recruit didn't go well.

I caught up with her at a supermarket checkout line a few hours after she announced her candidacy and spoke to her further while she was driving southwest towards Panama City. Well spoken and idealistic she didn't want to go beyond generalities she had down by rote, like “I want to be a different type of representative to find a common ground with Democrats and Republicans." When I asked her about specifics like the Chained CPI and marriage equality she abruptly told me her campaign manager said it was time for her to take another call. I knew right then and there she would be Steve Israel's favorite candidate ever-- even before she was recruited by the Blue Dogs, which came soon after.

Like another conservative-leaning Democrat, Michelle Nunn, next door in Georgia, Graham's top asset is her father's name. But there's even more conservatives like than just the name ID. Remember, as you read this, "moderate" is what they call "conservative" in this kind of reporting.

Graham and Nunn are going beyond the typical advantages of name ID and fundraising connections. They explicitly hold up their fathers as examples of what kind of elected officials they would be: old-style moderate Southerners, the kind rendered largely extinct on Capitol Hill.

“I often hear from people that they miss the days in which they felt like they had someone who was a statesman and reached across the aisle,” Michelle Nunn told The Associated Press at a campaign stop in Shellman, Georgia. “I’m both lucky to have that connection and to have my own experiences that demonstrate my capacity to lead in that way.”

Graham, who is following her father’s campaign tradition of spending days working alongside constituents, said, “I want to put aside the bickering. It should be public service, not politics.”

The approach offers Democrats a ray of hope in a midterm congressional election that could continue the party’s slide in the South, where President Barack Obama and national figures such as U.S. House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California are broadly unpopular.

Republicans aim to unseat Democratic senators in Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina on their way to reclaiming a Senate majority. Voter defections and racial polarization are already pronounced in the U.S. House, where U.S. Rep. John Barrow of Georgia is the sole white Democrat from the Deep South states that stretch from South Carolina to Louisiana.

Graham, 51, wants to oust U.S. Rep. Steve Southerland, who won Florida’s 2nd District in Republicans’ 2010 midterm House sweep. Nunn, 47, is trying to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga.

...Nunn and Graham call themselves independent voices, promise to tackle national debt and say Obama’s health care overhaul needs improvement. Graham goes further, saying Obama should have pursued incremental changes instead of a sweeping law.

Graham was the chief labor negotiator for the Leon County School District. Nunn spent 25 years running not-for-profit volunteer organizations, culminating as CEO of former President George H.W. Bush’s Points of Light Foundation.

Nunn mentioned Bush, a Republican, in one television spot; her father appears in another. “My dad has been reminding me throughout the campaign that he never passed any legislation that didn’t have bipartisan support,” she told AP.

For Graham, the lessons come from spending work days with voters, something her father once did. She’s worked the cash register in a food truck, hung drywall at a construction site, chased chickens and trimmed goat hoofs on a boutique farm. In one town, she wore a bulletproof vest for a day-in-the-life of a police officer.

“To be able to spend real time with people … gives you a connection that I think sadly is missing in Washington today,” Graham said, noting that the work days made her father “a better leader.”

Bob Graham championed traditional liberal causes such as public education and environmental protection but cracked down on drug crimes and revived capital punishment, earning nicknames like “Bloody Bob” and “Governor Death.” In his last Senate race in 1998, he carried 63 of Florida’s 67 counties.

...The electoral dynamics in both campaigns explain Democrats’ strategy in emphasizing that centrism.

The Florida Panhandle is Republican territory, but the 2nd Congressional District, which includes heavily Democratic Leon County, gave Obama 46.5 percent and 47.1 percent in his two presidential victories. Southerland won by a comfortable-but-competitive 5 percentage points in 2012.

In Georgia, Republicans hold every statewide executive office, and Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate race since 1996, when Max Cleland captured Sam Nunn’s seat, only to lose to Chambliss in 2002. Yet Chambliss needed a general election runoff to win in 2008, and Obama notched 47 percent and 45.5 percent statewide.

While hoping to maximize support from black voters and urban whites, Graham and Nunn look to convert just enough white voters outside the cities, closing the gap with old “Reagan Democrats” who could just as easily be called “Bob Graham Republicans” or “Sam Nunn Republicans.”

Gary Harrell, a surveying engineer near Albany, Ga., fits the bill.

Harrell said he hasn’t voted for Democrats at the federal level since Sam Nunn and Bill Clinton. Now he’s backing Nunn’s daughter. “I’m just really struggling with this administration,” he said of Obama, “but not necessarily all Democrats-- and I was a huge fan of her father.”

Did I miss something or did the AP leave out every single issue a normal reporter would ask a candidate for political office? After reading it you can probably surmise where Graham would be on various issues-- and you might be right or you might be wrong. The Democrats advising her want it that way. They do not back Democratic positions themselves and do not want to defend them and just hope 51% of the voters won't notice and will just vote for their pathetic mystery meat candidate because of who her father was. Sick!