Campaign Advice From Direct Mail Expert Eric Hogensen

Eric's an old pal and I can't think of anyone better equipped top give advice on direct mail strategy. That's what he does for a living and I know almost nothing about it since I through it away along with stuff from the local grocery stores and the biweekly credit card offers from Chase. Here are his top 5 mistakes campaigns make with direct mail-- often, he says, driven by the candidates themselves:

1. Including everything on every mailer

Consistency is great in direct mail. And when on a budget, it makes sense to repeat the core message. But if a piece is supposed to focus on K-12 education, don't include your plan for health care reform. Your mailer should tell a story, not all the information you can think of.

2. Turning the mailer into a manifeso

A piece of direct mail is meant to be a simple advertisement for the campaign, not the Declaration of the Rights of Man and the Citizen. A typical flat mailer needs no more than 100 to 150 words on it. Very few people will read more than that. The more text, the less likely it gets read.

3. Speaking in platitudes rather than specifics

A lot of us think in broad terms and reasoning, but the information that stands out when you read it is factual and specific. Don't explain how economics works on your mailer, show the reader the dollar and cent figures. Sometimes campaigns want to avoid committing to a fact or figure because it could be disputed. You know what? Bring on the dispute. Attention for a questionable stat is better than no attention at all.

4. Tinkering obsessively

Many candidates and campaign workers make the mistake of thinking, "If I just get this part a little closer to perfect..." No. Stop. Endless rounds of edits to your mail piece will not make it better. It will make it worse. To the reader who doesn't see the sausage getting made, the points you want to make will get more confusing and the artwork will look more hurried and sloppy.

5. Insisting your district number is included

Of the five mistakes, this is the least consequential. It doesn't hurt to include the district number, but it doesn't help. Candidates running for a particular district feel very connected to that number. But 99% of voters have no idea what the number of their State Senate district is. It's just not important.

And that's who and what ultimately matter: The voter reading the piece and what's important to them.

I asked Eric about the use of positive and negative messaging, both in primaries and in general elections. He was blunt and concise: "When it comes to the differences between primaries and general elections a good rule to follow is: Primaries are more about positives and contrasts. You need to boost your name recognition in the primary but also need to explain why you are the best fit among people who agree with you. Contrasts are essential in order to draw a distinction between you and your opponent(s) but you want to keep this from getting too nasty. Going negative in a primary is a dangerous game because it alienates you from people who mostly agree with you and can hurt feelings down the road. However in a general election, today's partisan environment has removed all niceties. Going negative is incredibly effective to both fire up our base as well as win over independents. There are no feelings to hurt and the people you might be alienating are not voting for you anyway."

 

Has Paul Ryan Lost His Mind-- Or Is He Just Pretending To Have Lost His Mind?

Maybe you don't believe that Ryan fled from the field of battle when he noticed that Randy Bryce's @IronStache momentum was leaving him with no pathway to reelection. And maybe you believe that the Speaker of the House decided he really needed to be home in Janesville 7 days a week so he could spend the next few years teaching little Sammy and Charlie how to kill animals with bows and arrows. If you believe the latter, you may believe what he told the Wisconsin Republican convention Saturday as well. He did warn Republicans to watch out for the blue wave headed their way but... he also claimed Señor Trumpanzee will be an asset to GOP candidates this fall in states like Wisconsin that he narrowly won.

With help from the Kremlin in just a few carefully targeted counties, Trump took Wisconsin 1,405,284 (47.22%) to 1,382,536 (46.45%), less than 1%. 23 Wisconsin counties flipped from having voted for Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016: Adams, Buffalo, Columbia, Crawdford, Door, Dunn, Forest, Grant, Jackson, Juneau, Kenosha, Lafayette, Lincoln, Marquette, Pepin, Price, Racine, Richland, Sauk, Sawyer, Tempealeau, Vernon, Winnebago. I'm sure Ryan has studied the internal polling and focus groups that show clearly that the 2 counties in his district, Kenosha and Racine are flipping back to the Democrats in November and that independent voters in both counties are not even open to hearing GOP Messaging any longer. But Ryan told gullible reporters after his speech that he doesn't think controversies surrounding Trump are resonating with voters in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

"The president is strong in these states," Ryan said. "He's an asset. ... Whether I'm running around southern Wisconsin or America, nobody is talking about Stormy Daniels. Nobody is talking about Russia. They're talking about their lives and their problems. They're talking about their communities, they're talking about jobs, they're talking about the economy, they're talking about national security."

Ryan defended his and the Republican record in Congress, including the tax overhaul law he championed, saying "we have gotten a ton of things done."

But he, like other Republicans speaking at the convention before him, warned it could all be quickly be undone.

"The blue wave, as they say it, they want to take it all away," Ryan cautioned.

He also reminisced about his career, telling reporters after his convention speech "I never thought I'd be here in the first place. I wanted to be an economist."

Randy Bryce came right to the point about how he sees this: "I pray Donald Trump campaigns in Wisconsin. With great frequency." David Keith lives in Racine and manages campaign. I'm not certain if he was at the state Republican convention or not but he was well aware of what Ryan had to say there. He laughed and told me that "Paul Ryan sold his soul to the devil and in doing so, lost his seat. He’s now in his final round of auditions for the title role in the Koch’s plan to destroy the country. At the very least, he realizes, he’ll be able to get richer than he already is, in that role."

Eric Hogensen a political operative based in Milwaukee right now, is one of the sharpest minds in Midwest politics. This morning he reminded me that "Looking at the results of special elections throughout the country, its hard to see what Ryan is thinking. There has been a very clear backlash against Trump and the GOP. People are not happy with the Republican policies and they are not happy with Trump. At this point, many GOP members of Congress should be scared. Perhaps that has a little to do with Ryan's choice to leave." Maybe he should remind Paul Ryan... or not.

Running For Office, Creating A Brand

Eric Hogensen is an old friend who was instrumental in helping elect Chris Larson, the most progressive member of the Wisconsin legislature. His firm, HSG Campaigns has relocated from Wisconsin to L.A. and in recent months he's been releasing "how to" newsletters for candidates that offer free advise worth more than what expensive Beltway consults sell. This week he asked a question everyone Inside the beltway has been buzzing about for the last month-- How to Create A Brand Like Randy Bryce Did.

Our friend, Howie Klein, recently took note of an incredible ad from Randy Bryce (one of Speaker Paul Ryan's Democratic challengers) on his blog:

"…this authentic voice from southeast Wisconsin pops up on the screen a couple of weeks ago and BOOM! he immediately creates a platinum brand, goes from 7,000 to 113,000 twitter followers in two weeks, raises $500,000 from small donors in the same time period, puts out an online video that has over half a million views, and has endorsements pouring in from brand name political leaders like Ro Khanna, Alan Grayson and Kirsten Gillibrand."

While it's true that the DCCC can’t bottle, package, and resell this brand in any district in the country, there are some important political branding lessons to be learned from the Bryce ad.



1. Voters are looking for authenticity. Gone are the days when only suited-up Ken dolls with poll-tested sound bites could get elected to Congress. More and more, voters are looking for authentic candidates who look and sound like real people.

2. Communicate with voters, not at them. It's really easy to disregard ads that seem scripted. One of the reasons documentary-style ads like this work well is because they offer opportunities for the candidate to use authentic language that connects with voters.

3. Tell a story. At first, it's not clear that this ad is for a candidate. As it goes on, you meet the characters in a way that feels natural. Who Bryce is and what he represents sticks with you as a result. That's because the messages that stick with an audience are those told through a story.

4. Positivity works. As the ad's maker, Matt McLaughlin, told Longreads, "There's a reason story arcs exist and why archetypes exist. Randy is an archetype and so is Paul Ryan. We wanted to end up with a place of hope and excitement that centers around Randy. I could see other ads ending with, 'this is why Paul Ryan is bad,' but we’ve always been advocates of positivity. Although this isn't the average political spot, it's not an indie film. People want a happy ending."

5. End on a clever point of summation. In this ad, you learn who Bryce is: an authentic working person. He and his family are affected by the decisions made in Washington, and lately, not for the better. At the end, Bryce proposes, "...let's trade places. Paul Ryan, you can come work the iron and I'll go to DC." It’s a remarkably simple but clever statement that sums up the entire idea. Paul Ryan is a Washington insider, Randy Bryce is a regular guy. Who do you prefer?

How valuable is Bryce's brand? Recent polls indicate he may actually beat Paul Ryan. That valuable! I've been asking congressional candidates who they would like to have come to their districts to help them campaign. Not a single person has mentioned Democratic House leaders Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Joe Crowley, Ben Ray Lujan or Debbie Wasserman Schultz-- other than people who bring up their names spontaneously as people whose presence would hurt their election chances. Instead the two names heard most often-- Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren-- has expanded to three names: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Randy Bryce... even if some of the candidates say @IronStache.

It doesn't hurt to have a comic book super-villain like Paul Ryan as an opponent, but recent candidates who ran against notorious arch-villains like Mitch McConnell, Ted Cruz, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Virginia Foxx, and Steve King were unable to close the deal. If Randy Bryce does, it will be the biggest political story of the 2018 midterm elections. Right now, Bryce's brand is strong and growing stronger-- and Paul Ryan's is weak... and fading fast. There is an historic upset in the making. The DCCC is unaware of it-- as are the Inside the Beltway pundits, but by this time next year Randy Bryce's name-- or at least @IronStache-- will be one of the best known political names in the country. People have already started asking him for autographs. That's uncommon for a politician. The thermometer on the right leads to the Stop Paul Ryan page. Please click on it and contribute what you can. And let's hope that one day-- one day soon-- people ask, "who was Paul Ryan?"