Austerity Happens-- Conservatives Make Sure Of It With Every Vote They Take

Unlike the federal government, states can't print money. And many are constitutionally unable to run deficits. You know what they means in the Trump Recession/Depression? Cutbacks inlays that will hurt the already hard-hit working class. And The GOP is doing all it can to make matters worse. It's their thing-- and the media calls it a political deadlock, as Mary Walsh did in a NY Times article yesterday. One of America's biggest statewide socialist programs is in Alaska-- the Permanent Fund (established in 1976), which basically pays every citizen in the state a Basic Income through a divided on oil revenues. In 2015, the dividend was $2,072. Since Trump became president it's been going down-- $1,606 in 2019, $992 this year and is estimated to be going to zero by October. Walsh didn't mention it and wrote that "Alaska chopped resources for public broadcasting. New York City gutted a nascent composting program that could have kept tons of food waste out of landfills. New Jersey postponed property-tax relief payments. Prisoners in Florida will continue to swelter in their cells, because plans to air-condition its prisons are on hold. Many states have already cut planned raises for teachers. And that’s just the start."

I doubt many conservatives are going to lose their seats because Florida prison inmates don't get A/C or because of a composting program or a cutback in public broadcasting. But watch what happens in Alaska when people there figure out they're not getting their dividend checks. And, wrote Walsh. "Across the nation, states and cities have made an array of fiscal maneuvers to stay solvent and are planning more in case Congress can’t agree on a fiscal relief package after the August recess. House Democrats included nearly $1 billion in state and local aid in the relief bill they passed in May, but the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has said he doesn’t want to hand out a 'blank check' to pay for what he considers fiscal mismanagement, including the enormous public-pension obligations some states have accrued. There has been little movement in that stalemate lately.

Economists warn that further state spending reductions could prolong the downturn by shaking the confidence of residents, whose day-to-day lives depend heavily on state and local services.

“People look to government as their backstop when things are completely falling apart,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If they feel like there’s no support there, they lose faith and they run for the bunker and pull back on everything.”

States and municipalities are also crucial employers and spenders that keep the economy moving. “We run the risk of descending into a dark vicious cycle,” Mr. Zandi said.

State and local governments administer most of America’s programs for education, public safety, health care and unemployment insurance. They also provide a wide variety of smaller services, such as outdoor recreational facilities or highway rest stops, that improve the quality of life. The costs of many of these programs have spiraled because of the pandemic, which has at the same time caused an economic slump that has driven down tax revenues.

Collectively, state governments will have budget shortfalls of $312 billion through the summer of 2022, according to a review by Moody’s Analytics. When local governments are factored in, the shortfall rises to $500 billion. That estimate assumes the pandemic doesn’t get worse.

When the lockdowns started in March, state and local governments quickly cut 1.3 million jobs. But then they paused, waiting to see if revenue would continue to fall-- and what Washington might do to replace it.

Lawmakers soon passed the $2 trillion CARES Act, which authorized one-time stimulus payments and temporary supplemental unemployment payments, which buoyed consumer spending and helped states’ sales-tax revenues. The law also allocated about $150 billion to states for expenses directly attributable to the pandemic, in areas ranging from education and health care to the operation of nearly empty airports. But the rules for what expenses that money can cover have kept much of it from being spent, according to the Treasury Department. New York State, for example, has been sent about $2.9 billion that it can’t put toward other uses.

Although states’ budget challenges would be eased if Congress relaxed those rules, that still wouldn’t be enough to fill the gap.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has warned that without further relief New York will cut $8.2 billion in grants to local governments, a blow he said had “no precedent in modern times.” The cuts would hit “nearly every activity funded by state government,” including special education, pediatric health care, substance abuse programs, property-tax relief and mass transit, he said.

No two states have tackled the budget crunch the same way. Several have torn up their annual budgets and are doling out money to programs one or two months at a time. Some have earmarked cuts but not yet carried them out.

Delaware has decided to issue less debt, and a bond issue that was supposed to fund clean-water projects has been shelved. In California, people who go to court without lawyers-- an estimated 4.3 million a year-- will continue to deal with confusion because the state has scrapped plans for “court navigators” to shepherd them through. Nevada said it would forgo the penalties and interest it normally charged tax cheats, hoping to coax them and their unpaid millions up from underground. In Maryland, the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra will lose a $1.6 million state subsidy.

Some states are trying to save cash on their pension contributions. Kentucky has delayed its payments to the state workers’ pension fund, already one of the most poorly funded in the country. Colorado and Maryland are among the states planning to reduce their contributions. Some, like California and New Jersey, had recently committed to raising their contributions to cover past underpayments-- but now can’t afford to do so.

Without further federal aid, some of the biggest cuts will be to education and health care. California says it will send its school districts $12.5 billion in I.O.U.s if Washington doesn’t step in, and it will be on the schools to figure out how to fund themselves in the meantime. Preschool programs are being cut in many states; so are free-tuition college programs. State university systems are slated to lose billions of dollars in state funding, although some states say the cuts will be quickly reversed if enough federal money arrives.

And many states say they will reduce their outlays for Medicaid. The health care program for low-income people has been growing rapidly in the pandemic as millions have lost their jobs along with their employee health benefits. States are struggling to find a way to pay for all these additional people. Some, like Colorado, are increasing the co-payments that their Medicaid patients must pay for doctor visits, pharmaceuticals and medical transport.

State officials say they have little choice but to keep cutting if more aid doesn’t arrive. All but one state, Vermont, are legally bound to balance their budgets every year, and Vermont does so voluntarily. They can’t borrow their way out of a cash crunch, the way Washington can, because they have laws limiting how much bond debt they can carry. If they veer too close to the limit, lenders will start demanding higher interest rates and the rating agencies will downgrade them.

In May, the Federal Reserve offered to buy states’ bonds if terms in the municipal bond market become onerous. But most states think the Fed loans cost too much and have to be paid back too quickly to be of much help. So far only one state, Illinois, and one state authority, New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, have taken the Fed up on its offer. New Jersey and Hawaii are exploring deals, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, which tracks the states’ fiscal plans as they develop.

Public pensions have been a central point of contention in discussions over additional federal aid.

In April, with economic activity at low ebb, Illinois lawmakers sent a detailed wish list to their state’s congressional delegation that included $10 billion for the coming year’s pension contribution. They also asked for $9.6 billion for Illinois’s cities, which needed the money to “fund retirement systems for the police, firefighters and other first responders providing emergency services during this Covid-19 outbreak.”

The request drew scorn in Washington.

On a syndicated radio show, Mr. McConnell said Senate Republicans would “certainly insist that anything we’d borrow to send down to the states is not spent on solving problems that they created for themselves over the years with their pension programs.”

Glenn Hubbard, an economic conservative who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, said he agreed that federal money should not be used to prop up failing state pension funds. But he acknowledged that the states’ cash needs were becoming urgent and said there wasn’t time for a complete overhaul of troubled state pension systems.

For the sake of speed, Mr. Hubbard said in an interview, Congress could send the states money with a simple, and probably breakable, rule that it not be used to reduce taxes or bail out pensions. Public pension reform, which would be grueling, could come later.

Or, as Mr. Hubbard said in an online seminar hosted by the Economic Policy Institute last month, “if an overweight person comes to the E.R. with a heart attack, you treat the heart attack before you lecture him or her about weight.”

I spoke with some of the state legislative candidates Blue America has endorsed about how this catastrophe is playing out in their own districts and in their own campaigns. Southwest Milwaukee County challenger Jacob Malinowski, a working class candidate through and through, told me that "In Wisconsin, we’re seeing the direct effects of economic mismanagement for partisan gain. The dark store loophole-- which means mega-corporations avoid paying their fair share in property taxes-- bankrupts municipalities and leads to higher taxes for working people. Wisconsin is now one of only a few states which still hasn’t accepted the free federal Medicaid expansion dollars. This means that all of our healthcare costs go up-- just for some sort of twisted, ideological political victory. And finally, throughout most of 2020, our state legislature hasn’t even shown up for work. No debates, no bills-- but still their full salary. Enough is enough, and I’m running because we need more advocates for working and middle class families-- not wealthy billionaires."

Tulare Democrat Drew Phelps is running for a seat against Devon Mathis, arguably the worst member of the California state legislature. He told this morning that he's thankful that "California didn't have to layoff public employees this year," but was horrified that "most public workers will be seeing a pay cut of 9.23% under agreements made for next year's budget. This would be reversed if the federal government stepped in to help restore the state budget. That 9.23% represents $2.8 billion per year that is being taken away from public employees and will also no doubt represent a reduction in spending by those families that are impacted, further hurting California's economy. It was a necessary step for a state that is bound by the constitution to pass a balanced budget, but incredibly short sighted from a federal government not bound by the same constraints in a time of crisis. Some California lawmakers made written requests that their salary be cut to match the sacrifice being made by so many California state employees, but my opponent Assemblymember Devon Mathis made no such gesture."

Aside from Lee Carter, also from Virginia, Delegate Patrick Hope is the only one of our state legislative candidates who is an incumbent. He speaks from experience when he tells us that "Trump and McConnell’s failure to lead during the pandemic means that states, such as Virginia, have to cut basic core services in order to balance their budgets. Virginia is projecting a whopping $2.7 billion shortfall over the next two years leaving legislators no other choice but to make deep cuts in Medicaid programs, public education, and infrastructure. That means government support won’t be there for low-income families at a time when they need it the most. What’s just as bad is states are on their own securing virus testing and PPP, just when schools are preparing to open all over the country. The Trump Administration and Republicans in Congress have proven themselves to be unreliable when it comes to securing the basic necessities for states to fight the pandemic. At a time when the need for federal financial support to the states is at its greatest, we get nothing but broken promises. And who’s left holding the bag: the people."

Deb Lavender is a member of the Missouri House-- currently running for the state Senate-- so, like Patrick Hope, she speaks from experience about the conservative embrace of austerity-- or at least for austerity for the working class. She told me that "Over the last decade Missouri has cut taxes for large corporations, costing the state $750 million in yearly revenue. This cut in revenue to our state has forced budget cuts at a time when the economy was doing well, from 2015 thru 2019. And this is after austerity measures were taken following the recession in 2008 – 2012. Missouri has the lowest gas tax in the nation so there is no surprise when we have over 900 bridges on the critical and emergency repair list. Last year we borrowed $300 million to fix these bridges during an economic boom because we refused to raise gasoline taxes and continue to cut corporate taxes. Missouri has one of the lowest cigarette taxes in the nation, and we are one of two states that have not capitalized on the Wayfair sales tax. As a state, Missouri has not been investing in our citizens for close to a decade. We fail to fund public education, higher education, and we have not expanded Medicaid expansion so our low-income friends, neighbors and families to have to affordable healthcare. Due to corporate budget cuts we have had austere budgets for the last 5 years and then the coronavirus hit. Since March our Governor has cut over $800 Million from our budget while continuing to mismanage our tax dollars. We have billions of federal dollars from the CARES Act still not being spent, and the latest development from Missouri is our Governor's $829,000 in payments to a Virginia-based consulting company to help us spend our CARES act money. Tens of thousands of Missourians are still unemployed, over 1 million people in the state don’t have access to broadband, schools and hospitals don't have enough PPE, and the state has not taken measures to ensure everyone can safely vote in November, and we are sending our money to Virginia? Whether for good or bad, state government plays a powerful role in the lives of every person living in our state. Missouri needs to start investing in the people of the state to becomes a viable state where people want to live."

Down in Miami-Dade, Bob Lynch, is running hard for a swing district seat currently held by rot-gut Republican Daniel Perez (HD-116). Yesterday, he told me that "One of the things that attracts people like Donald Trump and Kayleigh McEnany to the state of Florida is the fact that we have no state income tax. When the good times roll, this is a big selling point. However, Ron DeSantis has torpedoed our state’s economy due to ignoring the public health component of the pandemic. All he cares about is letting his donors open up their businesses regardless of how unsafe it is. The 2021 State Budget that was jammed through at the last minute will be something that historians will study due to the brazen criminal negligence involved. The revenue assumptions in the budget were pre-COVID, despite it being passed in the middle of the pandemic. I have long since tangled with Moody’s on their rose colored glasses loss estimates, dating back to my time as a Subprime Mortgage trader. They estimate that Florida will have an $8-10 billion dollar budget shortfall. I have, and will always take the over on any Moody’s report. Ron DeSantis, Rick Scott, and Marco Rubio have been adamant about the federal government not bailing out reckless states. Florida is the most reckless state. The essential services that will have to be cut simply to balance the budget is something that Paul Ryan and Rand Paul’s wet dreams are made of. This is an impending disaster, which was the intention.  Sabotage the government and then blame the government. I’m getting sick of watching this movie over and over."

Anselm Weber is also running for the state House, but west of where Bob is running, in Lee County. He wrote this morning that "the GOP has been immensely successful for the last 40+ years gaslighting the public into believing policies that directly benefit the public are somehow bad. A lot of their narrative successes could have been avoided if the Democrats put effort into defending our social safety net and policy prescriptions like single-payer healthcare and a living wage. If the Democrats put opposition up in my state of Florida things might actually be better for the working class. Right now millions of Floridians are without healthcare, affordable housing or a living wage. This has only gotten demonstrably worse with the GOP's austerity-driven approach to COVID-19 with a jaw dropping 51% of renters at risk for eviction. On top of that, 1.7 million people still have not had their unemployment claims processed! The need to rebuild our social safety net here is my top priority if elected. No longer should we accept the pay-as-you-go logic of the far right. Not when millions of people are ending up in poverty because of COVID-19 and soon to be climate change. Now is the time to call out the right's trash narrative gatekeeping the public goods we all need."

Joshua Hicks is running for state House clear on the other end of the state-- in Nassau and Duval counties. "State aid is vitally important to Northeast Florida and across the country. My opponent has joined his Republican colleagues in blocking Medicaid expansion in Florida-- funding which would place 800,000 low-income and needy Floridians on healthcare. In times of an economic crisis, like we are going through now due to the pandemic, we need leaders who will place the people and their communities first-- not political talking points or economic policies that only look out for themselves and not the people they represent. We need leaders who will support local communities and who will stand up for our workers, fighting for pay increases and expanded benefits. While Republicans in Washington stand up against supporting states in need, their colleagues in state legislatures are supporting their blockade-- at the cost of hard working Americans. That's simply wrong policy. As a state legislator, I'll fight for our workers, for the low-and-middle class families in need, for our small businesses, and will look for ways to lift up, not put down, our local communities. If we need help from the federal government, I'll happily work to accept it if it helps my district-- regardless of the consequences. That's leadership. The election this November gives us a real chance to change the direction of this nation-- from the bottom on up."

A First Realistic Step Towards Getting Rid Of Devin Nunes Is Getting Rid Of Devon Mathis In An Overlapping District-- Meet Blue America's Latest Endorsee, Drew Phelps

A week ago, we took a look at California's worst state legislator, Devon Mathis. Since then, I've had dozens of people asking me-- or telling me-- about his Democratic opponent, Drew Phelps. And, by popular demand-- as well as our own vetting-- today Blue America is officially endorsing young Mr. Phelps. Please consider contributing to his campaign to represent the Central Valley Assembly district that encompasses Tulare and Inyo counties (and a tiny bit of Kern County)-- AD-26-- by clicking on the 2020 state legislatures thermometer below.

Phelps told me that he's a 4th-generation Tularean-- as well as a healthcare advocate, and an affordable housing specialist running to bring much-needed change and progressive leadership to California's 26th Assembly District. In 2015, he actively led and organized residents of the district with the grassroots Citizens for Hospital Accountability, a diverse coalition of local activists fed up with the financial and legal mismanagement of the Tulare Regional Medical Center. After two years of constant organizing, Citizens for Hospital Accountability defeated a bond measure that would have funneled millions of dollars of public dollars to private healthcare interests, and successfully recalled all five members of the Hospital’s Board of Directors.

Currently, he told me "there are over 80 combined felony and misdemeanor counts against three executives who had been running the Tulare Regional Medical Center into the ground. The seeds of those charges were planted when the Citizens for Hospital Accountability contacted the Tulare County District Attorney to investigate possible wrongdoing." That's the kind of grassroots leadership Blue America looks for in candidates.

Previously, Drew served as the Director of Grant Oversight with the Manuel Torrez Family Resource Center, bringing in funding for the Center’s “Healthy Families, Happy Kids” initiative, as well as helping organize the program’s annual mobile health clinic and fair. His other volunteer experience in the South Valley includes directing a soccer camp for underserved youth and coordinating healthy food distributions for working families.

Phelps has deep roots in the community, being the grandson of the former mayor of Tulare and has been active in politics since childhood, knocking on his first door for a city council candidate at the age of 12. He is a lifelong Democrat from a family that has a progressive pedigree that focuses on solving local issues by building broad coalitions of working people.

His campaign is supported by a broad coalition of labor unions, progressive advocacy organizations, and local activists and elected leaders. His emphasis will be on basic quality of life issues that have plagued the residents of AD 26 for years. It is estimated that over 10,000 residents don’t have access to clean drinking water. In some cases it is because wells have gone dry and in others contaminated runoff have poisoned the water to the point that it is less safe to drink than what is coming out of the tap in Flint, Michigan.

Assembly District 26 is in an area of California that consistently lags other parts of California in terms of measures of economic growth, unemployment levels, air and water quality, educational attainment, and access to basic medical services. Drew is running to replace an incumbent-- the aforementioned Devon Mathis-- who is wholly ineffective when it comes to dealing with these issues and has no notable achievements in his six years in office.

When elected, Phelps promised me he will be laser-focused on addressing the drinking water issues, delivering quality healthcare options, and diversifying job opportunities-- all of which have been ignored for too long under his opponent's leadership. Drew Phelps will be a champion on the issues that matter most to the folks in his district, not the Sacramento special interests that support his opponent.

Is The Anti-Trump/Anti-Red Wave Going To Help Democrats At The State Legislative Level?

My guess is yes-- this November we're going to see a lot of the seats that were lost while Debbie Wasserman Schultz incompetently ran the DNC picked back up by Democrats again. And, as Joan Walsh explained this week for The Nation that process is already underway. During the Wasserman Schultz years Democrats lost 942 legislative seats. "In 2009," wrote Walsh, "Democrats controlled 27 state legislative assemblies and Republicans 14, with eight divided. (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is nonpartisan.) By 2017, Republicans controlled 32 and Democrats 14, with three divided. In 2010 Republicans were able to use this dominance to gerrymander electoral maps across the country, locking themselves into power in state after state, including in an inordinate number of congressional districts in states like Michigan, Ohio, Louisiana, North Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Walsh explained that by 2017 Trump's toxicity started impacting election results "as Democrats won back 14 state seats in special elections, plus an astonishing 15 in Virginia that November." And in 2018 Democrats "turned 380 seats from red to blue... flipping chambers in six states. In Colorado, New York, and Maine, Democrats took over Senate chambers. In Minnesota they grabbed the House, and in New Hampshire they turned both. They made huge strides elsewhere in eroding GOP power, switching 16 seats in North Carolina’s House and Senate, ending GOP supermajorities (which gave the legislature power to override the Democratic governor’s vetoes); 14 in Texas; and 19 in Pennsylvania. In 2019, Virginia Democrats finished their job, taking the House and the Senate. With a Democratic governor, the state returned to full Democratic control for the first time in over two decades. Counting those Virginia victories, Democrats have won back over 450 seats and 10 state chambers in the Trump era."

Anselm Weber, a progressive state House candidate for an open seat in southwest Florida told us that his race is important for a multitude of reasons. "In terms of my District," he said, "we have intense clean water issues as we are at the frontline of massive blue algae blooms caused by nitrogen and phosphorus runoff from commercial farms. My opponent Adam Botana is heavily funded by big Agricultural companies that directly contribute to our blue algae blooms. Moreover for the state of Florida we have massive poverty and healthcare uninsured rates along with immense housing insecurities. These issues have only gotten worse with COVID as thousands of Floridians have lost their job based health insurance and a whopping 51% of Florida renters are at risk for eviction. This means we need state legislators who will fight tooth and nail for a Green Jobs Program to combat climate change while providing well paying jobs across the state. along with fighting for living wages for all, universal healthcare, and an expansion of affordable and public housing."

Heidi Campbell, one of the Nashville area mayors, is running for the last state legislative seat in greater Nashville still held by a Republican. And she's going to win it. "Every now and then," she told me this morning, "I'll talk to a Democratic voter who asks me why I'm bothering to run for state Senate. Progressives have mostly given up on Republican super-majority states like Tennessee because flipping seats is a daunting prospect. There's also a tendency to focus on the shiny televised, twitter-fied federal races, and of course we've had four solid years of a President who takes up all the oxygen in the room. As a Mayor of a small city though, I can tell you that all politics really and truly IS local. Republicans are counting on states like Tennessee to seed battles to overturn Roe v. Wade and roll back environmental regulations. We need progressive candidates in these states who can win seats and fight to flip other seats. And we also need to elect people like me to run interference on the antediluvian legislation that the conservatives write, like bills to jail librarians, honor Rush Limbaugh, and the dangerous push for permitless carry. Geographically and legislatively our states ARE united, and we have to pay attention to state races before it's too late."

Drew Phelps is the progressive Democrat working towards replacing right-wing extremist Devon Mathis in a Central Valley Assembly seat. Today he told me that "The race in AD 26 is vital because the people in this district have been ignored by Sacramento for too long. One more Democrat in the California Assembly may not seem like a big deal, but for the approximately 465,000 people in AD 26 so much more is possible with a Democratic member who represents their interests. This election is a choice between a public servant who would put the needs of the district above partisan politics and special interests on one side, and someone like Devon Mathis who accomplishes nothing, harasses his own staff, and continually puts the interests of his large donors above the average working person in the district. Assembly District 26 has been ignored and left behind for too long and Sacramento needs to prioritize the needs of the people in the district so that they no longer lag behind the rest of California. Electing Drew Phelps would give the people of the district a champion who would put their needs above all else and allow them to finally get their fair share from Sacramento."

Joshua Hicks is running for a state House seat that takes in all of Nassau County and part of Duval County. "Here in Northeast Florida," he told us this morning, "we are running a campaign in District 11 to place the people back in charge in Tallahassee. This race is vitally important because it allows us the real opportunity to hold my Republican opponent accountable for his dismal failures, while also preventing him from spending his resources on his friends both locally and across the state. It's important because as Democrats, we need to ensure we have a candidate in every race because we can't win if we don't run. It's also important because we can move real numbers in my district and in districts across the country, that will help Democrats win up and down the ballot and ride the anti-Trump wave to victory. Here in District 11, we haven't had a Democratic state House campaign like mine in the past 10 years. We are putting in the resources to turn this district blue, and we are reaching out to NPAs and Republicans to convince them to reject the hate coming from Donald Trump and embrace focusing on the kitchen table issues impacting all our families. Issues like higher wages, better healthcare, acting on climate and a renewed focus on lifting up our local economy. These are the issues that matter and we are seeing real movement away from the politics of hate in Northeast Florida."

Please consider contributing to the progressive legislative candidates endorsed by Blue America-- in Florida, Tennessee, California and across the country-- by clicking on the ActBlue thermometer above.

Now those groups and some new ones are trying to change more chambers to blue, especially in states where the legislature controls redistricting. But they need to learn the lessons of why state Democrats slumped after 2008, failing to rise to the GOP challenge, and surged after 2016.

Chief among them: You can’t win if you don’t play.

Democrats in many states had long failed even to field challengers to many Republican incumbents. That’s changed hugely since 2016. In this cycle, the DLCC has spent $6.2 million to recruit candidates. Democrats also need a diverse slate of challengers, especially to turn out the people least likely to vote but most likely to be Democrats: so-called low-propensity voters, mainly people of color and younger people (who obviously overlap). Then Democrats need to target those voters, as well as run on issues and urgency that match the moment.

...[T]he four states that are seeing the most investment are North Carolina, where there’s a chance to shift the House and Senate; Arizona, where both chambers are likewise in play; and Texas and Michigan, whose Houses may be up for grabs. Fights are also underway to turn the Minnesota Senate, the Iowa and Ohio Houses, and both Pennsylvania chambers. Wisconsin and Georgia are getting attention, too.

And with a late, unexpected surge of first-time candidates, Florida has emerged as a fascinating laboratory for building Democratic infrastructure on the ground. Republicans hold a trifecta in state power-- hapless Governor Ron DeSantis as well as both legislative houses-- and they have botched the pandemic response beyond belief. Groups like Sister District, Forward Majority, and the DLCC are starting to spend money there to at least build a working Democratic Party in red areas, if not flip a chamber. “Running up the margins” in blue districts and preventing Republicans from doing so in red districts “can help Joe Biden win the state,” says Fergie Reid Jr. of 90 for 90, a group formed to honor his father, Fergie Reid Sr., who was elected in 1967 as Virginia’s first Black state legislator since Reconstruction, on his 90th birthday. (He’s now 95 and going strong.) It is one of the groups behind Virginia’s turnaround, by registering voters and recruiting Democratic challengers. Now it has helped inspire the late surge of Florida Democratic candidates.

...[I]n Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott is increasingly reviled for his pandemic management-- which is partly why Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances to win the nine seats they need to turn the state House. There are nine House districts held by Republicans that were won in 2018 by Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, whose run is widely credited with reviving the state’s withered Democratic infrastructure. He lost to Senator Ted Cruz narrowly, but Democrats picked up an astonishing 12 seats in the House that year.

Run by a bumbling GOP trifecta in the age of coronavirus, ruby-red Texas is unpredictable this year. Biden even leads Trump in a few polls there. “Governor Abbott has taken all the ownership of Covid and has refused to believe science,” says second-time Texas House candidate Joanna Cattanach. “We have refrigerator trucks outside hospitals in Dallas County now.”

The net approval rating for Abbott’s response to Covid has slipped 21 points since June, when 56 percent of Texans approved and only 36 percent disapproved; he is now underwater, with 47 percent approval, 48 percent disapproval. “He’s really made himself the face of the pandemic,” Cattanach says, sounding bewildered. Not only did Abbott open businesses too soon, the 
public health data shows, but he also discouraged face masks and social distancing and even blocked localities from imposing stricter requirements.

...This year, some hope that a presidential election, which always gets more voters to the polls, could help boost Texas turnout-- but maybe not at the state legislative level. “We have to avoid down-ballot drop-off,” Cattanach says. That’s always a challenge in state legislative races, even in the hyperenergized Trump era. ”In 2018 our candidates underperformed Democrats in the same congressional district by about 4 points,” Forward Majority cofounder Vicky Hausman warns. “It’s a real problem.”

...Kathy Lewis, who’s running a second time for Florida’s Senate District 20, encompassing the Tampa–St. Petersburg area anchored by Hillsborough County, didn’t hear she was too liberal for the district in 2018. Mostly she didn’t hear anything, especially from Democratic Party leaders.

...“Everyone,” including many state Democratic leaders, “said we were crazy,” she recalls. “No one would vote for us. But the party had somehow miscalculated how much this district was changing.” She garnered an unexpected 46.5 percent of the vote, winning 52 percent in populous Hillsborough County. In 2020, Lee resigned, and suddenly the party had an open seat to contest. According to several reports, Democratic leaders approached at least two others to run, even though Lewis filed almost immediately after Lee’s announcement. “They said later they didn’t know I was on the ballot,” she says, sounding unconvinced.

If Democrats recruited two alternative potential candidates for Lee’s seat, they neglected a whole lot of other districts. That’s where 90 for 90 came in. After the group’s Virginia successes, it moved on to other states, helping recruit candidates where party leaders seemed unable or uninterested. In Florida the Reids reached out to Janelle Christensen, the energetic head of the state Democrats’ environmental caucus. “They explained the advantages of running in every district, and I said, ‘Hey, I’m convinced,’” she says. “It’s not necessarily that they’re going to win, although they could, but they can cut the margins in red districts for Biden and educate people on our issues.” She says she could fill maybe 10 challengers’ seats with folks close to her caucus. “But when I got started talking to them, they talked to their friends, and we recruited 36.” 90 for 90 also worked to help with the unlikely candidates’ state election filing fees, which are $1,800 each.

Other national groups, including the DLCC, have since jumped into Florida. “The conventional wisdom is there’s no path to winning the Florida House. We have a contrarian view,” says Hausman. As in Texas, there are districts that appear flippable, especially the 13 GOP-held seats that were won by either Clinton in 2016 or by gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum in 2018.

Still, many people feel the state party is undersupportive of its new insurgents. Inexplicably, challengers have had trouble getting access to VAN, a privately owned list of local voters, with names, addresses, and phone numbers, who have voted or might vote Democratic. “It felt like the party was constantly trying to reinterpret the rules for who qualifies [to get VAN],” Christensen says. “But even once you get it, most of the numbers are bad. Nobody’s even been trying in these districts, in some cases for decades. They’re useless for anyone coming in trying to organize. If all we did in these races is build a list of interested Democrats in VAN, that’s something.”

Sister District cofounder Gaby Goldstein, whose group is also working in Florida, says that’s a common problem in red states, many of which it has targeted since its founding in 2016. “In some places, we have to lay the basic groundwork because VAN is garbage. Many Democratic voter lists are garbage,” she says. I have heard this a lot in red states and districts over the last four years. There have always been stalwart Democratic activists in the reddest places, but a lot of state parties have let the infrastructure “wither away,” Goldstein says.

Lewis eventually got access to VAN. There are gaps in its data, but this time around, she’s more confident anyway. “You know what? With the coronavirus, we have local people who don’t have health care. They can’t access unemployment insurance. They know Florida is a mess,” she says. She adds that after hearing her story in 2018 about fighting with the state to get services for her daughter and hearing it again in 2020, people tell her, “Kathy, I didn’t understand last time, but now I see exactly what you were saying.”

Unfortunately, local party leaders still don’t seem to understand. Lewis benefited from a widely seen Zoom call in July led by Hillsborough County Democratic leader Ione Townsend with local Black leaders. When one asked about the party’s lack of support for Lewis her second time around, Townsend replied, “It’s not high on our list because of where the polling was. What we do is, we prioritize based on our overall goals. White, Black, brown-- it doesn’t matter who that candidate is, it’s where they fall on our election priority list.”

Angela Birdsong, a Hillsborough Democratic activist who ran for county commissioner in 2018, responded, “I just think any Black woman in the race right now stands a chance and should be given a little more money than you might think they need. I just feel that you should give them more money!”

Lewis, like other women of color running for office this year, believes the widespread American revulsion over George Floyd’s murder and the movement to end police violence buoy her campaign. For one thing, it has gotten people focused on the role of state and local leaders in reforming police departments. Here’s where electing Democrats can matter-- if not always enough. Colorado, which elected a Democratic trifecta over the past few cycles, did away with qualified immunity for police officers in June; New York, which completed a trifecta in 2018, enacted other criminal justice reforms. “We now have a Black Senate leader, Andrea Stewart-Cousins, and a Black Assembly speaker, Carl Heastie,” the DLCC’s Post says of New York. “That’s truly made a difference.”

...Even in Virginia in 2019, Bachman observes, “Democrats keep underperforming,” at least partly because outreach to voters scored as less likely to vote was sometimes undervalued when it came to door knocking, media buys, and direct mail. Virginia Democrats took control of both chambers but won only two state Senate seats, fewer than expected. “Given the nature of the 2016 election, the voters who stayed home skewed to Democrats,” she adds. “It couldn’t be more clear that the path to winning more seats is getting lower-propensity voters, particularly lower-propensity voters of color, engaged with our message and turning them out.”

That’s especially true, Abrams says, since 2020 is another census year, with participation threatened by the pandemic and Trump administration malfeasance. “If we do not have adequate participation by voters of color in November,” she warns, “gerrymandering will be worse than we’ve ever seen.”

Jacob Malinowski, a candidate for the Wisconsin Assembly for the red-leaning southwest corner of Milwaukee County told me today that "In Wisconsin, there are a lot of obstacles for Democratic State Assembly candidates: the map is the worst gerrymander in the country, and many national resources are focused on a select few races. Furthermore, if Republicans make just a few gains, they'll have a veto-proof supermajority with no check on their power. But in the southwest suburbs of Milwaukee, I'm running to win. My district is a 50-50 flip that nobody is paying attention to, and we're using this to our advantage to flip the seat right under the noses of the GOP. With hard work and real conversations, I'm running a new, post-partisan campaign to build lasting progressive power in my home state. If we can win here, then the path to a people-first Wisconsin is clear: run hard-working candidates everywhere who offer real ideas and speak to the lived experience in their districts, not just the same talking points."

Christine Pellegrino is running for the New York state Senate (SD-4) in Suffolk County (Babylon and Islip), a swing district currently represented by Trumpist Phil Boyle. "For candidates like me," Pellegrino told us, "2020 will allow suburban progressives to win seats at the table of power. For too long, State House Democratic majorities have used the objections of their moderate suburban colleagues as the reason to hold up the progressive legislation we need. If more suburban progressives get elected, these excuses will no longer hold water, which means that the path to enacting progressive legislation runs through the suburbs. And I've won this kind of race before, by a landslide. I was the 2nd national red to blue flip in my 2017 special election for New York State Assembly, a harbinger for the 2018 Blue Wave midterms. And once I'm in the New York State Senate, we will be able to help reverse the damage of 2010 by fully funding our schools and libraries, improving our infrastructure, and fighting for the healthcare we all deserve. Suburban down-ballot progressives are the crucible-- the testing ground-- for enacting an agenda that helps poor and working people and families first. If Albany can pass progressive legislation, other states and the federal government will be able to accrue the support to pass similar reforms. Down ballot races like mine are the cornerstone of lasting political revolution."

Missouri state Rep Deb Lavender first ran for the legislature in 2008 and told us that she "was finally successful in 2014 running four cycles in a row. I watched firsthand in 2010 how the Tea Party swept across Missouri, and the nation, and watched as good Democrats lost their seats. Republicans picked up seats in Missouri for the next two elections. Until 2014 Missouri lost so many state legislative seats we dipped into a super minority in both chambers. In 2016 we elected a Republican Governor and since then have lost all legislative issues that are important to Democrats. In 2018, I watched my own state Senator, Andrew Koenig, file and pass one of the nation's most restrictive pieces of abortion legislation, leaving no exceptions for rape or incest.  Democratic senators negotiated as best as possible and yet in the end, we still passed one of the most egregious bills in the nation, because senators are also in the super-minority in Missouri. Being an elected official is about more than having power, it's about having a seat at the table to effect positive change and pass laws that improve peoples' lives. Unfortunately today in Missouri, Democrats are not welcome at the table, not in the House or in the Senate."

Deb won her race for state Representative in 2014, flipping a long held Republican seat. Over the last 6 years Democrats have picked up 4 additional seats in the state House and one in the state Senate, a good start, though not near what they need win to get out of the super-minority.

She told me that "a year ago I decided to run for this Senate seat knowing we had a chance to flip the Senate seat as I had my House seat. I have worked hard for the people in my district and have used my platform on the Budget Committee, where even a Democrat can make some change. I had the opportunity to meet Jessica Post in 2015 (she started her career here in Missouri), and she looks forward to the day when Missouri is ready to flip a chamber to Democrat again. Until then, I am proud of the results she has made across the nation in picking up so many seats these last years. A significant turning point for Missouri was when we finally became the 38th state to pass Medicaid Expansion in August of this year. My experience in budget will allow me the opportunity in the Senate, to implement Medicaid expansion. The stars are aligning and there are good signs that I will win this seat. Every week, the five women running for the State House in my senate district and I get together to discuss strategy and learn from each other what we are doing to win our races. I look forward to us all flipping Republican-held seats for Democrats this year."

 

Worst California State Legislator? Is Anyone Worse Than Devon ("Proud White Guy")?

Everyone following politics throughout the nation has no doubt heard of Devin Nunes, his ridiculous hackery is legendary at this point. One interesting fact about Nunes is that his district overlaps with that of another terrible Devon whose name is nearly unknown outside of Sacramento-- Devon Mathis in California Assembly District 26, a chunk of the Central Valley, primarily Tulare County with sparsely populated Inyo County and a small piece of Kern County, the Kern River Valley.

In 2017, while Devin Nunes was colluding with the Russians on Trump's behalf, Devon Mathis made headlines in 2017 after reports came out that he allegedly assaulted a female member of his staff. A Sacramento Police Department investigation quickly wrapped up a month later with no charges filed. However, Mathis lost staff and his former chief of staff filed a lawsuit alleging he was fired after raising concerns about inappropriate behavior by Mathis.

In 2018, while Nunes was stepping up his collusion with Moscow, Mathis was sued by his former district director alleging sexual harassment and unfair pay practices. The California Assembly Rules Committee disciplined Mathis in 2018 for violating sexual harassment policy but gave so few details about the incident, that it is unknown whether the probe had been related to the staffer’s lawsuit. The only detail given was that the sexual harassment took the form of "sexual 'locker room talk'."

In a more recent scandal, Mathis was forced to donate $14,000 to charity from his campaign committee after serious criminal charges were leveled at Dr. Yorai Benzeevi, an executive who ran Healthcare Conglomerate Associates (HCCA). HCCA was the organization that had been donating-- as in bribing-- at least $14,000 to Mathis.

Mathis was approached by a local group called Citizens for Hospital Accountability who asked that Mathis request an audit of HCCA due to possible mismanagement of the Tulare Regional Medical Center. Mathis at first refused to request an audit, having been overheard once saying that he could not request an audit because he "owed Dr. Beenzeevi a favor." Mathis has, at this point, still not been arrested for taking bribes.

Later, Mathis signed a letter of support for an audit that had been requested by Senator Jean Fuller, but that support came nearly three years after the initial audit had been requested by local activists-- and after HCCA was removed as the hospital’s manager. Devon’s inaction let a bad situation deteriorate to the point that the Tulare Regional Medical Center was nearly closed on a permanent basis. Since then, the man to whom Mathis owed the favor, Dr. Benzeevi, has been charged with 40 felonies including counts of money laundering, conspiracy, embezzlement, and grand theft.

At this point you might be asking, how can Devon Mathis act as an effective legislator amid such extensive personal and professional scandal? The answer is-- he just doesn’t get much done. He delivers nearly nothing for the people in his district and has in fact continually voted against their interests. In the most recent legislative session, he was only able to get one of his thirty-seven bills passed and he has missed nearly 1,000 votes since first being sworn in in 2014.

Relating to the current pandemic, Mathis is one of the most prominent anti-vaccine leaders in the California Assembly. He refused to support a measure meant to provide additional funding to help fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and opposed efforts to require that hospitals furnish personal protective equipment (PPE) and that employees use the equipment supplied. He was also a trailblazer in putting children at risk, calling for schools to reopen in mid-May of 2020. Friday Tulare reported 95 new cases, bringing the county total to 13,117, with 210 already dead.

"Proud white guy"

As a cherry on top, there he was in 2019 on the floor of the Assembly saying that he is "a proud white guy" in response to his Black peers describing their experiences with law enforcement profiling. We’re sure everyone on the floor was happy he wanted that entered into the record in responses to valid critiques of poor police practices. 

Devon Mathis can truly be described as one of the worst legislators in Sacramento, on both a personal and professional level. His opponent, Tulare Democrat Drew Phelps, is someone we are in the midst of vetting right now... but so far, the process is going well as I feel in my gut we'll have an announcement coming in the next week or two about that.

California Is Burning-- But Trump Told FEMA Not To Help Because Not Enough Californians Voted For Him In 2016

There are dozens of wildfires raging across northern California right now-- primarily in Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Lake and Yolo counties. Thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes. At least 5 people, including 2 first responders, are dead. During his Convention segment Thursday night, Gavin Newsom said "If you are in denial about climate change, come to California." Led by Ted Lieu, the majority of California's congressional delegation has asked Department of Homeland Security Inspector General Joseph Cuffari to open an investigation into allegations-- watch the video from the former Department of Homeland Security chief of staff below-- that the federal government improperly denied or delayed aid to California wildfire victims. The letter follows allegations from a former Department of Homeland Security official that President Trump ordered FEMA to deny assistance to Californians because of the political demographics of the state. Taylor said that on a phone call with FEMA, Trump told them "to cut off the money and no longer give individual assistance to California. He told us to stop giving money to people whose houses had burned down from a wildfire because he was so rageful that people in the state of California didn't support him."





Trump has lost whatever bit of sanity he ever had. Although only 31.6% of Californians voted for him, that's still 4,483,810 people-- more voters than from any other states other than Texas and Florida. And most of the worst devastation from the fires were in Republican areas in the northeast corner of the state, solidly Republican CA-01, where a notorious Trump apologist and enabler, Doug LaMalfa is the congressman.

Ted Lieu's letter to Cuffari asks 4 questions all Californians should want to hear answered:

• Did the President or DHS officials improperly influence the issuance of any fire management assistance grant?
• Did the President or DHS officials improperly delay granting or deny any requests for an emergency or major disaster declaration?
• Did the President or DHS officials attempt to revoke or delay the distribution of any assistance that had already been granted to California fire victims?
• Did the President or DHS officials improperly deny requests from the State of California to adjust state and local cost share requirements associated with debris removal and emergency protective measures assistance?

Lieu asked every member of the California delegation to sign onto his letter. Most did-- but not a single Republican did. They rejected it out of hand. Kevin McCarthy, Devin Nunes, Ken Calvert, Tom McClintock, Paul Cook, Mike Garcia and, most shockingly, Doug LaMalfa all showed they would rather stand with Trump politically than stand with their own constituents in a life or death situation. California has 53 House members but just 7 are Republicans. In a justice world, there wouldn't be single California Republican left in Congress.

Liam O'Mara is a history professor in Riverside County running for the last southern California seat the GOP has managed to cling onto. Yesterday, after reading Lieu's letter-- and seeing Ken Calvert wasn't a signatory-- O'Mara noted that "Calvert is a hyper-partisan creature, afraid to buck this president and act in the interests of Californians. His spinelessness is part of the reason he's never chaired a committee and authored so little legislation-- he's afraid to stand out from the crowd. Our 'Representative' will never have the courage to challenge his own party leadership, even when doing so is transparently in the interests of his constituents and his home state. Failing to speak up as Californians die and their houses are destroyed is unconscionable and almost criminally negligent."

There's another corrosive "Devin" in the Central Valley-- it's a popular name among Republicans-- Devon Mathis of Tulare County, widely considered one of the California legislatures very worst members. His opponent is a young progressive first-time candidate, Drew Phelps, who told us that "Once again, California is faced with an unprecedented wildfire season. Meanwhile, to find out recently that the federal administration may have withheld past wildfire aid is extremely alarming. While our state leaders and the federal administration can bicker over policy differences, putting human lives at stake over those differences is never acceptable and should not be tolerated."

Jackie Fielder is running for California Assembly also, but in a November contest that pits her-- a staunch progressive-- against another Democrat, Scott Wiener, a corporate shill and conservative lackey of special interests. Jackie told me yesterday that "Californians affected by the wildfires are Americans, too. Whether the President likes it or not, he is their president. It’s disgusting he would let politics get in the way of providing relief for people who are being asked to leave their homes with nothing but the clothes on their backs in the middle of the night. We simply don’t have enough resources to fight these fires and save lives."