Louisiana Shockers

Crooked congressman defeated

I never root for Republicans to win elections. And I never root for reactionary Democrats dragged up from deep in the bowels of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party either. Nor do I root for corrupt members of Congress, regardless of ideology. So I was pretty much sidelined in today's two late Louisiana elections. (They were postponed because of hurricanes.) In LA-04 Democrats hoped to pick up a very red district being vacated by Jim McCrery by running a right-wing anti-choice fanatic, Paul Carmouche. He was unable to generate any enthusiasm from many African Americans and whatever progressives live in Shreveport and he was edged out by a much further right wing extremist loon, John Fleming, 44,497 (48.07%)- 44,141 (47.69%).

Carmouche crushed Fleming in Shreveport itself (Caddo Parish)-- 22,742 to 15,510-- but it wasn't enough to overcome Fleming's lead Bossier, Vernon, Sabine, Grant, and Beauregard Parishes. Remember, this district went for McCain over Obama by 19%.

Meanwhile, way at the other end of the state, Democrats are getting a good lesson from Anh Cao, a Republican attorney. In light turnout the overwhelmingly Democratic district-- with a PVI of D+28-- is telling Democrats that forced to pick between an honest moderate Republican and a crooked moderate Democrat, they're going for the Republican. Things could change but right now, with 391 precincts reporting (out of 492), Jefferson is having his head handed to him. Cao is an anti-choice fanatic.

Cao- 29,345 (52.94%)
Jefferson- 23,985 (43.27%)

All the votes from Jefferson Parish are counted and Cao beat Jefferson 12,696 to 8,099. Orleans Parish is a much more Democratic and a much more African-American area and it is still not inconceivable that Jefferson will catch up, but I wouldn't bet on it. CNN just called it for Cao and most political junkies are doing likewise. If Cao wants to stay in Congress beyond 2010, he should switch parties when he makes his victory speech. You can follow the results on the Secretary of State's website.


UPDATE: FINAL RESULTS IN LA-02

Cao- 33,122 (49.55%)
Jefferson- 31,296 (46.82)

The Times-Picayune reports that Jefferson hasn't conceded but that he went on the radio and blamed African Americans for not turning out for him in sufficient numbers. Instead of wondering if they were sick of his corruption, he says they "ran out of juice."

Carmouche won't concede either-- and in his case that might not be a bad decision. It's very close and he wants to make sure all the provisional ballots get counted.

Obama Keeps a Low Profile In Georgia And Louisiana Races-- Possibly Dooming Both Democratic Candidates

Woulda, shoulda, coulda... Palin did and Obama didn't

By wide margins, Americans approve of President-elect Obama and his cabinet choices. Almost 70% approve of his choice of Hillary Clinton to be Secretary of State and 80% approve of his decision to keep Robert Gates on at the Pentagon.

In the poll, Americans by more than 3-1 say they trust Obama more than Bush to handle the economy. By 58%-33%, they support Obama's promise of a huge spending package to stimulate the economy.

...There's little concern Obama is relying too much on veterans of President Clinton's administration. By nearly 4-1, those polled say the picks will make the new team more effective.

Numbers like that mean he's getting support across the board. Even 40% of Republicans approved of the Clinton choice (as did 89% of Democrats and 69% of independents). In fact, 78% of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling his presidential transition, with only 13% disapproving. A majority of Democrats (94%), independents (79%), and Republicans (57%) all say they approve. By way of comparison 66% approved of Bill Clinton's 1992 transition and 63% approved of Bush's right after he stole the 2000 election.

Still, Obama was unwilling to put any political capital on the line to try to win a veto proof Senate and defeat one of his most die-hard reactionary opponents, Saxby Chambliss, whose entire negative campaign is based on stopping Obama. Polls close at 7pm Eastern Time and short lines so far presage a win for Chambliss. The only way he could have been defeated would have been for Obama to go to Georgia and work it. He chose to stay above the fray, cutting a radio spot-- not even TV!-- and a robocall. And the DSCC sent around e-mails begging us to help by sending money! Screw them!

Polling stations across Georgia reported low to moderate voter turnout. At the Atlanta Public Library on Ponce de Leon Ave., where more than 1,600 people voted in the general election, only 400 people had voted by noon today.

But among those who did bother to get out to the polls, "many voters interviewed today said the balance of power was an important factor in their choice of a candidate."

But how important is this election if Obama is doing approximately the same thing for Jim Martin as he did for a backward, reactionary asshole, Paul Carmouche, running as a Democrat in Louisiana's 4th CD in an election this coming Saturday. Carmouche-- like Don Cazayoux, who was one of only 4 Democrats defeated last month (and unlike Jim Martin) is unlikely to support much of what Obama tried to do to change the direction of the country-- now has a radio ad from Obama, which is expected to appeal to progressives and African-Americans, two groups that have no logical reason to support Carmouche. In fact, Obama is either disingenuous or naive in his statement:

"To change America and to get Louisiana's economy back on track-- I need leaders like Paul Carmouche working with me in Washington. Paul Carmouche is the kind of leader we need in Washington...to make a difference for the people of Northwest Louisiana."

It was just a few weeks ago that enough African American and progressive voters abandoned Cazayoux-- basically cut from the same vile mold as Carmouche-- to throw his seat to a Republican. They had given him a chance and elected him but once he got into Congress he abandoned all pretense of serving working families and threw his lot in with the Republicans. On substantive matters that divided the two parties in the House, Cazayoux voted with the GOP far more frequently than with his fellow Democrats. And the voters back in Baton Rouge noticed and voted for a third party candidate. The only Democrats who voted more frequently with the Republicans than Cazayoux were Nick Lampson (TX), who was also defeated last month, Jim Marshall (GA) and Joe Donnelly (IN). African-Americans in LA-04 don't appear inclined to vote for Carmouche, which is why the DCCC implored Obama to cut the radio spot. Of all the people who took part in early voting, only 19% were African Americans, who make up almost a third of registered voters in the district. Paul Carmouche deserves to lose. Jim Martin doesn't.


UPDATE: POLLS ARE CLOSED IN GEORGIA

Votes are coming in and the Secretary of State's website seems to be getting the results up pretty fast. Tondee's Tavern is a good place to watch for fast interpretations and details. Atlanta Metro will probably come in late though-- that's what happened last time-- and if Martin has any chance of winning, it will be because of unexpectedly large margins in Fulton and Dekalb. So far, comparing early returns to returns from last month don't show any surprises at all (good news for the bad guys).

9:08 PM, Eastern: CNN projects Chambliss

UPDATE: RIGHT WING FANATIC, SENATOR CHAMBERPOT RE-ELECTED IN GEORGIA

Obama supporters didn't turn out in the same kinds of numbers that hysterical right-wingers did. African American participation was down drastically from last month.

Martin appeared to suffer mightily from a lack of African-American turnout, which dropped from 30 percent of early votes four weeks ago to around 20 percent in the runoff.

In Atlanta-based Fulton County, Chambliss was almost even with Martin with half the precincts reporting. Martin defeated him nearly two-to-one in the county in the general election.

Don't Waste Your Money In The Louisiana Run-Off Between A Democratic Conservative And A Republican Conservative

This morning the DCCC sent our a scary e-mail: "Dick Cheney's Last Stand." It's a fundraising e-mail to Democratic activists begging for money to fight "radical conservative John Fleming in the upcoming special election in Louisiana's 4th District." And John Fleming is a radical conservative. The DCCC shill on the other hand is just a plain garden variety conservative. If the DCCC had any respect for Democratic activists they might say something about the Democratic candidate, Paul Carmouche, not just about Cheney and Fleming.

On his own website, Carmouche emphasizes that he is "100% pro-life" and "100% pro gun." His words. The rest of his issues page could pretty much belong to a Republican, a Democrat or a Martian-- boiler plate verbiage about helping the middle class. And Paul wants to get out of Iraq "but we must do so with honor." The DCCC can shove this one up its ass. There's every reason to believe that Carmouche is likely to be as bad a member of Congress as the just-defeated Don Cazayoux, also from Louisiana and also a reactionary Democrat. Cazayoux won the special election last year because African-American voters in Baton Rouge trusted that he would vote like a Democrat. When they were disappointed to see him get into Congress and start voting with the GOP over and over, they refused to support him and he lost his seat to a right-wing Republican loon.

Louisiana's 4th CD is 33% African American but many recognize Carmouche for what he is and the latest polling shows that African Americans will make up only 22% of the voters in the special election. That's smart thinking because Carmouche is far more likely to be a drag on the Democratic Party's agenda for change than a help with it.

Earlier in the year Shreveport state Senator Lydia Jackson (D) urged her supporters not to vote for Carmouche. "I don't think Paul Carmouche is a good candidate, period. I think the party decided on a conservative white male, they thought that's our best candidate. But Paul Carmouche wasn't necessarily the best choice." DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen doesn't agree and he's trying to raise money for the conservative Carmouche. He points out that Carmouche "fits a mold that has been particularly successful for Democrats this cycle-- Southern moderates from districts President Bush and John McCain won. 'Moderate and conservative Democrats are winning in districts that George Bush carried in 2004 and John McCain carried this cycle because our candidates reflect the values and priorities of their districts.'" So? What good are they when they get to Washington and vote with the GOP? All that money the DCCC wasted on right-wing fake Dems from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party could have elected genuine progressives who would be working to solve America's problems, instead of plotting with Republicans and Blue Dogs how to hold up change. Just a fraction of what the DCCC spent on reactionaries like Carmouche, the two conservatives in Alabama (Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith), Michael Montagano (IN), and Raul Martinez in Miami-Dade might have elected progressives Doug Tudor (FL), Annette Taddeo (FL), Debbie Cook (CA), Bill Durston (CA), Russ Warner (CA) or even a solid actual moderate like Alabama's Josh Segall (instead of a reactionary).

So... if you were planning on donating to the DCCC today, think twice about helping put another corporate shill who will vote against women's choice, against sane gun control, against equal rights, against immigrants, against a quick end to war into office. Instead, please consider a donation to the Blue America PAC, which will be helping challenge reactionary Democrats in primaries.

By the way, the DCCC has already wasted $516,392 on this race, $266,094 last week alone. The NRCC has spent $357,929 ($79,083 last week).