The Democratic Establishment Keeps Working To Blur The Lines Between A Progressive Party And A Conservative Party

A new Granite State poll from the University of New Hampshire of likely Democratic primary voters shows that when voters are asked an open-ended questi􏰀on about whom they will vote for in the primary, Bernie is menti􏰀oned most frequently by far (28%). Status Quo Joe Biden (8%), Kamala Harris (6%), Amy Klobuchar (3%), Elizabeth Warren (2%), or Cory Booker (2%) are men􏰀tioned by far fewer likely voters (above). 42% of respondents were undecided. But when asked to pick between names provided to the pollsters, it was only Bernie, Status Quo Joe, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Beto who have 5% of more. 14% were undecided.

The chart below shows which candidate these voters think is the most progressive. No one gets anywhere near Bernie on that axis.

Some of the more conservative Democratic candidates-- both presidential and congressional-- are hoping that voters confuse anti-Trump with progressive. They're not necessarily related. Plenty of conservative Democrats have realized that posturing against Trump is popular with the activist Democratic base. Even more popular with the activist Democratic base, however, is Medicare-For-All. The new Medicare For All Act (H.R. 1384) was introduced this week by Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) with 106 co-sponsors-- from full-on progressives like AOC (D-NY), Joe Neguse (D-CO), Ted Lieu (D-CA), Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Barbara Lee (D-CA), Ro Khanna (D-CA) to members normally thought of as part of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party like Gregory Meeks (New Dem-NY), Adam Schiff (New Dem-CA), Vicente Gonzalez (Blue Dog-TX) and Ann Kirkpatrick (New Dem-AZ).

A couple of months ago, Jake Johnson wrote that "Confronting the question most commonly asked of the growing number of Americans who support replacing America’s uniquely inefficient and immoral for-profit healthcare system with Medicare for All-- 'How do we pay for it?'-- a new paper released Friday by researchers at the Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) shows that financing a single-payer system would actually be quite simple, given that it would cost significantly less than the status quo. 'It’s easy to pay for something that costs less,' Robert Pollin, economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and lead author of the new analysis, declared during a panel discussion at The Sanders Institute Gathering in Burlingon, Vermont, where Pollin unveiled the paper for the first time."

According to the 200-page analysis of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) Medicare for All Act of 2017, the researchers found that “based on 2017 US healthcare expenditure figures, the cumulative savings for the first decade operating under Medicare for All would be $5.1 trillion, equal to 2.1 percent of cumulative GDP, without accounting for broader macroeconomic benefits such as increased productivity, greater income equality, and net job creation through lower operating costs for small- and medium-sized businesses.”

The most significant sources of savings from Medicare for All, the researchers found, would come in the areas of pharmaceutical drug costs and administration.

In a statement, Pollin said his research makes abundantly clear that the moral imperative of guaranteeing decent healthcare for all does not at all conflict with the goal of providing cost-effective care.

“The most fundamental goals of Medicare for All are to significantly improve healthcare outcomes for everyone living in the United States while also establishing effective cost controls throughout the healthcare system,” Pollin said. “These two purposes are both achievable.”

As Michael Lighty, a Sanders Institute fellow former director of public policy for National Nurses United, put it during the Gathering on Friday, “We really can get more and pay less.”

...“Medicare for All promises a system that is fairer, more efficient, and vastly less expensive than America’s bloated, monopolized, over-priced and under-performing private health insurance system,” [Columbia University professor Jeffrey] Sachs said. “America spends far more on healthcare and gets far less for its money than any other high-income country.”

Josh Harder ran for Congress in a northern portion of the Central Valley, CA-10, which runs from Turlock to Modesto and north to Riverbank, Ripon, Manteca and Tracy. The district has been trending blue and he ousted Republican incumbent, Jeff Denham. Obama beat his two GOP opponents by 3 points each and Hillary beat Trump by 3 points. Harder beat Denham more thoroughly last year-- 115,945 (52.3%) to 105,955 (47.7%), winning in both Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties.

All 7 of the California freshmen campaigned on a version of single payer, but only 4 of them-- Mike Levin, Katie Porter, Katie Hill (New Dem) and Harder (New Dem)-- have signed on as co-sponsors of Jayapal's Medicare-For-All legislation. McClatchy reporter Kate Irby noted that Harder ran and was elected on Medicare-for-All and wrote Harder's sponsorship "will be a test of whether districts outside of the solidly Democratic will support the bold effort at health care overhaul as it takes steps towards becoming law-- which Republican groups have painted as a socialist dream." A strong majority elected him because of-- at least in part-- Medicare-for-All. Most people in the establishment don't understand that kind of common sense popularity for something so helpful in people's lives.

“The key piece I’ve heard again and again and again ... is ‘please keep the promise to work for Medicare for all,’” Harder said, citing constituent concerns he heard during a listening tour on health care he’s been holding in his district.

“People want to see major progress on the No. 1 issue they care about,” he added.

...Members of the Blue Dog Coalition, a moderate [poor Irby doesn't understand the difference between the word "moderate" and the word "conservative... maybe some day, but I doubt it] group of 27 Democrats focused on fiscal responsibility, have said they would not support such a proposal without a clear way to pay for it. It’s unclear how that would be done, and most are unwilling to consider a tax increase or furthering the country’s debt.

“I think it’s important to have the conversation, except without talking about how you’re going to pay for it, it’s a hollow promise,” said Blue Dog Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno. “It puts us in a position of further increasing Americans’ debt, which we all loathe.”

A slight majority of Americans favor a health care plan where everyone gets government-supplied health care, especially when they feel it will eliminate costs and guarantee coverage... Harder said he’s confident this is what the people of his district want and need, despite large price tags. Though he’s not an author of the legislation, he said he’s had frequent conversations with Jayapal over the past two years to make sure the bill addressed the needs of districts like his own, such as guaranteeing coverage and improving quality of care.

“People already pay way too much for health care,” Harder said. “We need a system that drives down costs and improves patient outcomes.”

Health care is a significant issue in Harder’s San Joaquin Valley district, where unemployment is consistently higher than the national average and air and water quality problems worsen the issue of pre-existing conditions. Harder and Democratic groups repeatedly spotlighted his Republican opponent’s votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act in a campaign Harder ultimately won by about 10,000 votes.

There are over 350,000 uninsured individuals in the Central Valley, according to Harder’s office, one of the highest proportions of uninsured people in the state. Most of those who are uninsured in California are Latino and a quarter are millennials, and a third earn less than $25,000 per year.

It's a winning issue for people-- even if establishment politicians and corporate journalists don't understand that yet. The Democratic Party establishment should embrace the progressive agenda; its base has. And by the way, a new poll of Democratic primary voters in California, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina shows that addressing the climate crisis is a top tier issue for Democratic primary voters, shared only with universal healthcare coverage. So Medicare-For-All and The Green New Deal, the two most popular issues among Democratic voters-- and both totally unembraced and sabotaged by the party's congressional leadership which is too doddering to understand either.


The Midterm Field Has Expanded In California-- Thank Ted Lieu

L.A. Times this morning: "Republicans are at risk of a wipeout in California’s six most hotly contested congressional races, a new poll shows-- a result that could radically reshape the state’s political map, with major consequences nationally... The Democratic tide threatens to swamp congressional districts in Southern California’s suburbs that Republicans have controlled for decades. That would significantly boost Democrats’ chances of gaining the additional 23 seats they need to win a majority in the House."

The story behind the story, a story beyond the ken of the mass media. After years of abject DCCC failure, the members of the Democratic caucus in the House demanded reforms from Pelosi before agreeing to give her another term as leader. That was in 2016. Reluctantly, Pelosi agreed to giving up the right to pick the DCCC chair and she agreed to allow the election of six DCCC regional vice chairs.

Big victory for reformers, right? Bullshit! When it came time to vote, the only candidate running for DCCC chair was Pelosi's handpicked, bumbling incompetent, Ben Ray Luján. So he was elected. There were no contested battles for the DCCC vice chairmen jobs either. And that has turned out to be a complete disaster. More than half the candidates outside of the West Coast have told me they didn't know their region even had a regional vice chair. One vice chair told me he didn't know why he ran or what the job was and asked me to help him figure out what he was supposed to do. Two years on and he hasn't done a thing. Another resigned a couple of months after being elected and, despite promises from Luján and Pelosi that he would be replaced, there is still no regional vice chair for the Rocky Mountain states and Texas (one of the crucial battlegrounds of 2018, where the unsupervised DCCC staff has fucked up race after race). In the end, two regional vice chairs get a passing grade, Joe Kennedy (B) and Ted Lieu (A+). The rest have been abject, embarrassing failures.

And that brings us back to this morning's L.A. Times story. "With the Nov. 6 midterm election less than five weeks away," wrote David Lauter, "none of the Republicans in the state’s six most competitive races have a lead. The Democrats lead strongly in one race and narrowly in three others, and two are dead heats, the Berkeley IGS Poll shows. Reaction to President Trump appears to drive the results more than any specific issue and, in most cases, more than the individual candidates. 'Trump appears to be the main motivator for voters in these districts,' said Mark DiCamillo, the veteran pollster who directs the Berkeley IGS Poll. 'He’s the central figure.'" Yes, he has that right. Recall, Ted Lieu's comments here at DWT yesterday: "The 2018 midterm elections are primarily about one thing: Donald Trump. November will be a referendum on the job the President and his party are doing.  Americans express their support or displeasure with the governing party. During a time of relatively low unemployment it is unheard of for the party in power to be so despised. But this is where we are-- Trump’s numbers are under water in purple districts across the country. This tells me that Americans are anxious about other things besides the economy. They are concerned about Trump’s temperament and lack of basic decency, the instability he creates around the globe, and his assault on our democratic norms and institutions. Voters are smart. They know that Trump inherited a pretty darn good economy from Barack Obama; and yet what did he do with it? Did he increase workers wages with a big infrastructure package? Did he tackle the student debt crisis? Make healthcare more affordable? Pay down the national debt? Nope. He and his Republican enablers in Congress passed a hugely unpopular tax cut for the wealthiest Americans and continue to undermine the Affordable Care Act. So on top of issues with Trump’s character and temperament, these policies are also very unpopular (and don’t even get me started on Russia)."

Even if he was hampered by the usual DC-directed DCCC staffer-clowns stepping clumsily and ineptly all over recruitment efforts, Lieu has demonstrated how the DCCC could turn into an organization that actually helps elect Democrats-- instead of existing as a pocket-lining disaster that benefits only the Republican Party. Unlike his co-vice chairs, he has raised millions of dollars for his region's candidates, helped the West Coast candidates find their footings for their races and helped create the environment that journalists and pundits marvel over as they write about the West Coast races.

Trump is unpopular across most of the targeted districts-- four covering parts of Orange and San Diego counties, one in Los Angeles County and one centered on Modesto in the Central Valley. That’s especially true among college-educated white voters, whose alienation from the president has turned suburban districts across the country into risky territory for the GOP, and among Latinos and women.

The share of voters who approve of Trump serves as a ceiling for Republican candidates, with none able to surpass Trump’s level by more than a few percentage points. That’s a significant problem for Republicans; in five of the six districts, a majority of likely voters disapprove of the president’s performance in office.

In several districts, the president’s opponents appear more motivated to vote than his supporters, with self-identified liberals and registered Democrats more likely to say that they view this year’s election as more important than previous contests.

Strategies that the Republicans had hoped would bolster their campaigns and make up for the undertow from the president appear to have had limited effect, at best.

A ballot measure to repeal the recent increase in the state’s gas tax, which Republican operatives had hoped would spur turnout on their side, trails in each of the six highly competitive districts. Money for the repeal campaign has largely dried up as Republicans have diverted funds elsewhere.

A national effort by Republicans to portray untested Democratic candidates as unacceptably liberal appears also to have come up short in these California districts. Several Democratic newcomers have maintained favorable images with voters, the poll showed.

As a result of those factors, Republicans lag behind in two of the four congressional districts that cover most of Orange County, long the heartland of California conservatism. The other two contests are dead heats.

A longtime Republican incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale, is narrowly trailing in the only remaining L.A.-centered district the GOP holds.

Farther north, Republican Rep. Jeff Denham of Turlock, who has survived previous attempts by Democrats to oust him, is behind by a slim margin in his Central Valley race.

The poll’s findings in those districts are generally similar to other recent nonpartisan, publicly released surveys.

In addition to those six districts, the poll also surveyed the races in two Republican-held seats that have not been top Democratic targets but have attracted considerable attention.

Rep. Devin Nunes of Tulare, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, has a 53%-45% lead in his race against Andrew Janz, a county prosecutor. Nunes’ role as a defender of Trump has opened a gusher of money for Janz, despite the district’s heavily Republican tilt.

But in another heavily Republican district, Rep. Duncan Hunter of Alpine has only a 49%-47% lead over Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, a result well within the poll’s margin of error.

Let me butt in here for a moment. According to Janz, the DCCC has been unhelpful and even hostile to his efforts to replace Nunes. Lieu has gone out of his way to help Janz even though Luján and Pelosi have refused to even add him to their Red to Blue list. With Lieu's help he has raised more money than any of the DCCC-favored candidates. And Lieu includes him in all his joint candidate events and fund-raising efforts. The DCCC has also ignored-- and viciously undermined-- Ammar Campa-Najjar. Lieu? He's helping him raise money and, in fact, is hosting a major fundraising event for him (and Randy Bryce) in two weeks.

49th District

Democrats have their strongest shot in the 49th District, covering northern San Diego County and the southern Orange County coast up through Dana Point. Mike Levin, the Democrat, has a 55%-41% lead over Republican Diane Harkey, the poll shows. Republican Rep. Darrell Issa decided not to run for reelection in a district that Hillary Clinton carried by just more than 7 points in the 2016 presidential election.

White voters with college degrees make up 45% of the likely voters in this mostly affluent, suburban district, and they back Levin 60% to 35%. Latinos, who make up about 1 in 8 likely voters here, back him by about a 3-1 majority. While men are divided almost evenly between the two, women favor Levin 60% to 34%.

Perhaps most important, likely voters disapprove of how Trump is doing as president 61% to 39%, with more than half, 55%, saying they strongly disapprove. Democrats and liberals were significantly more likely than Republicans and conservatives to say that it was “very important” for them to cast a vote to show their position on Trump.

48th District

Next door to the north, the 48th District, which spans the rest of the Orange County coast from Laguna Niguel to Seal Beach and inland to Westminster and Fountain Valley, is a couple of clicks more conservative. Clinton carried the district by less than 2 percentage points.

There, longtime Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa and his Democratic challenger, Harley Rouda, are in a dead heat, each with 48%. Voters also split almost evenly on whether they approve of Trump.

As in the 49th District, college-educated white voters and Latinos back the Democrat, but they make up a slightly smaller share of the electorate: 39% of likely voters in the 48th District are whites with college degrees, and about 1 in 10 are Latino, the poll found.

Rohrabacher also benefits from significant support among Asian Americans, who make up about 1 in 8 of the likely voters. Elsewhere in California, Asian Americans lean heavily toward the Democrats, but this district includes a large, conservative Vietnamese population. Asian American voters overall divide almost equally between Rohrabacher and Rouda, the poll found.

Among whites without a college degree-- the heart of Trump’s voting base-- Rohrabacher leads by nearly 20 points, 58% to 39%, almost twice the size of the Republican’s margin with that group in the 49th District. Women support the Democrat, but men back the Republican by an almost equal margin.

The more Trump-oriented conservatism of the 48th District also surfaces when voters said what issues they care about most. Among Republicans in the 49th District, taxes were the top issue; in the 48th, it was “securing the nation’s borders.”

As the two sides vie to break the Rohrabacher-Rouda tie, the poll found a couple of weak spots.

Latino voters in the district were slightly less likely than others to say they viewed this election as more important than usual. That could hold down the Democratic vote.

Rohrabacher, however, has been dogged by controversy over his friendliness to people connected with Russia’s government. Unsurprisingly, an overwhelming share of Democrats said his contacts with Russian officials made them less likely to vote for Rohrabacher. So did 10% of registered Republicans. Among the small number of undecided voters, 45% said the Russia issue made them less likely to vote for him.

45th District

The 45th District, which covers a swath of Orange County from Irvine east through most of the foothill communities, resembles the 49th in its affluent, college-educated demographics. Clinton carried the district by 5 percentage points.

The Republican incumbent, Rep. Mimi Walters of Laguna Beach, had confidently predicted she could ride out the national tide flowing against her party, but the poll shows her Democratic challenger, UC Irvine law professor Katie Porter, leading 52% to 45%.

This race illustrates the failure so far of GOP strategies. Walters put money into helping get the gas tax repeal measure on the ballot, hoping it would spur GOP turnout. But the poll shows the measure getting only about a third of the vote in the district.

Republicans have also put millions into ads attacking Porter as too far to the left. That effort has had limited impact. By 50% to 38%, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Porter; self-identified moderates view her favorably 52% to 37%. By contrast, 50% of the district’s voters have a negative view of Walters, compared with 45% who see her positively.

39th District

Only a very, very strong wave could drag Cisneros into Congress

The GOP may have had more success with negative ads in the 39th District, which covers much of northern Orange County as well as parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties. Gil Cisneros has battled accusations that he sexually harassed a former Democratic state Assembly candidate, Melissa Fazli. A Republican super PAC allied with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-WI) has run advertisements in the district about the charge.

Fazli withdrew the accusation this week after a meeting with Cisneros, saying it was based on a “misunderstanding.” The super PAC said it would stop running the ads.

The poll can’t directly measure the impact of that issue, but 45% of likely voters have a negative view of Cisneros. That includes 10% of registered Democrats. Just 41% of likely voters view him positively.

Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are locked in a dead heat, the poll showed, with the Democrat holding a nominal 49%-48% edge.

25th District

The demographic picture looks somewhat different in northern Los Angeles County, where Republican Rep. Steve Knight hopes to hold off a challenge from Katie Hill, the 31-year-old former executive director of PATH, a nonprofit organization that provides services to homeless people.

Hill has a slight edge, 50% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error.

The district, which covers Simi Valley, Santa Clarita and the Palmdale area, has fewer college-educated white voters than the wealthy Orange County suburbs. But it has a higher share of minority voters.

Latinos make up a bit more than 1 in 5 of the district’s likely voters and support Hill by nearly 2 to 1, the poll found. Hill also benefits from a significant gender gap, with women backing her 53% to 44% over Knight, while men split almost evenly. Just over half of the voters have a strongly negative view of Trump

10th District

Similar factors have put Republican Rep. Jeff Denham’s career at risk as he seeks a fifth term in a district centered on Modesto in the Central Valley, where Latinos make up more than 40% of the district's population, but about a quarter of the likely voters.

Denham’s Democratic opponent, Josh Harder, has the support of roughly two-thirds of Latinos, the poll found.

White voters split 52% for Denham, 43% for Harder. Together, that’s enough to give the Democrat a 50%-45% edge in a district that Clinton narrowly carried in 2016 and where 57% of voters say they disapprove of Trump.

Here on the right is the Blue America "California-- Not Blue Enough" thermometer for 2018. To win Congress, Democratic voters are stuck with whichever candidates the primaries advanced to the general election. There are some really good candidates and some really bad candidates-- and mostly candidates in between. The DCCC put its finger on the scales in many districts to make sure New Dems and "ex"-Republicans from the Republican wing of the party would be the general election candidates. To stop Trump, we are now stuck with a situation where we have to vote for them too. But that isn't what Blue America is about. We're raising money only for the progressive candidates. Sure, vote for the Democrap candidates to help put Trump in check, but only contribute money to the progressives who will actually help solve America's problems when they get into Congress. Isn't that what this is ultimately all about? So, who, precisely, are they? Tap on the thermometer and you'll see.

Will 2018 Be The Year The Democrats Finally Win CA-10?

CA-10 is Jeff Denham's Central Valley district that should have been won by the Democrats by now. It's a white minority district (46%) that stretches from Tracy, Manteca, Ripon and Riverbank in the north down through Modesto and Patterson to Turlock. Obama won it both times and in 2016 Hillary beat Trump 48.5% to 45.5%. The PVI went from R1 to EVEN. The DCCC has run a series of weak congressional candidates, which is how Denham has hung on. They seem determined to do it again, this time with New Dem Josh Harder. An old pal from the 2006 Jerry McNerney race, A.J. Carrillo, has taken a look at the race after T.J. Cox and Dotty Nygard dropped out in the last few weeks. His report:

With Virginia Madueño Have The Dems Finally The Right Candidate To Take On Jeff Denham?
-by A.J. Carrillo

California’s 10th district has been the Democratic Party’s great white whale, with Trump-worshiping Republican Congressman Jeff Denham continually outperforming the district’s Democratic lean. In 2018 though, Denham may finally have met his match as there is a lot of energy and a lot of candidates running, but in this moment one stands above the rest. Inspired by the #MeToo movement, congressional sexual harassment scandals, and Trump’s abhorrent behavior towards women, former Riverbank Mayor and Governor Brown appointee, Virginia Madueño looks to provide the strongest matchup against Denham.

Virginia is a life-long resident of the district and is the daughter of farm-worker parents who went on to become members of the Teamsters union. As a small-business owner herself, Virginia has been a champion and strong voice for local businesses and as Riverbank Mayor brought business, community organizations and the US Army together to convert an old ammunition plant into a jobs hub, helping small businesses open doors and bringing more jobs to the region. She now serves as appointee of Governor Brown’s to the California Boating and Waterways Commission, where she continues her advocacy for the San Joaquin Valley.

While the western part of the 10th District has a growing portion of Bay Area commuters, the district still shares has many of the problems of the greater Valley region like lagging in employment growth and poor public health statistics. In a district that faces these issues, Denham has consistently sided with the Trump administration over his district. For example 49% of the district’s children rely on CHIP for health insurance, but instead of making CHIP funding a priority, Jeff Denham rushed to pass the GOP tax scam.

Virginia has been hammering Denham for his unwavering devotion to Trump, so when she pointed out that Denham voted to line his own pockets with a permanent tax cut, he lashed out at her on Twitter.

It turns out that Virginia’s campaign underestimated how much Denham stood gain-- a report revealed that Denham stands to pocket over $100,000/year from the Trump tax cuts. With his unfailing support of Trump’s unpopular agenda it’s no wonder Denham refuses to host town halls and generally hides from his constituents. He was MIA at this past weekend’s March for Our Lives.

As Virginia says on her website:

“Time after time our Congressman Jeff Denham has shown us that he is not our advocate, not our neighbor and not our ally, as he has become a rubber stamp putting the interest of his Republican congressional allies over the families of our district.”

As a survivor of a serious childhood illness due to the generosity of a physician, Virginia knows the importance of healthcare access and that is why she supports Medicare-for-All. She vows to stand up for her district and fight the Trump agenda that has targeted Californians. While Denham voted to index the estate tax to inflation, Virginia pledges to raise the Federal minimum wage from its woeful $7.25/hour and index future increases to inflation.

Is His Serial Dishonesty Finally Catching Up With Central Valley Republican Jeff Denham?

We haven't spent enough time talking about CA-10, an important district that the DCCC has failed over and over again to rescue from Republican hands. A Central Valley district primarily in Stanislaus County, with a substantial part of San Joaquin as well, the district is represented by a knee-jerk Republican backbencher, Jeff Denham, an odd fit in a minority majority district. CA-10, just east of San Jose, gave Obama wins both times he ran and, albeit by a smaller margin, went for Hillary over Trump last year, 48.5% to 45.5%. The biggest towns in the district are Modesto, Manteca, Tracy, Riverbank and Turlock.

The DCCC has been running candidates who look "good" on paper-- at least in DC-- but who have been unable to dislodge Denham. The DCCC are trying to bum rush some their kind of guy in as the candidate-- Josh Harder, a wealthy venture capitalist and the local activists are lining up behind Tracy nurse and former Riverbank City Council member Dotty Nygard. Lisa Battista (no issues page on her website), David Byttow (no website) and Mateo Morelos Bedolla (website has expired) have declared their candidacies and there has been talk that the last 2 Denham opponents, Michael Eggman (2014 and 2016) and Jose Hernandez (2012) are considering rematches. Also former Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueño may be planning on jumping in.

One reason 2018 may be Denham's Waterloo is his vote to repeal Obamacare and replace it with TrumpCare, a bill that would deprive 111,711 people in CA-10 of health insurance, over double the national average. But it wasn't just that Denham voted in lockstep with Ryan-- he always does-- but that he promised his constituents that he wouldn't. Early last March at a meeting with constituents Denham explicitly "agreed to not repeal the Affordable Care Act without a replacement that would protect people with pre-existing conditions, as well as allow people to stay on their parent's health insurance until the age of 26."

Two months later, when Denham flew back to the district, residents were angry that he had betrayed them and gone back on his word. His town hall meeting in Riverbank went badly.

"You voted against me," said one woman who said she depends on Medi-Cal for her healthcare.

"I voted for something that I thought would help my district," he said.

Denham had previously said that he would vote against the bill, but ended up voting for it, along with the rest of California's House Republicans.

He lied to his constituents about what TrumpCare would and wouldn't do but when he was cornered about his misleading assertions-- like a bogus claim that people would get cheaper pharmaceuticals-- he hemmed and hawed and claimed there will be "future amendments."

This truck can start rolling again the day Dotty Nygard becomes the Democratic nominee

Blue America has gone up against Denham once before. Two summers ago we ran a moving billboard campaign in two Central Valley congressional districts, CA-10 and CA-16, the former Denham's and the latter represented by Blue Dog Jim Costa. Both were enthusiastic supporters of the TPP reactionary trade agenda and both are mighty lucky that Congress has decided to write the laws in such a way that bribery in the form of "campaign contributions" is not considered bribery by the criminal justice system, a whole other deception worth taking time to think about. Denham was well aware that his Democratic-leaning district would not put up with a $700 million Medicare ripoff to grease the skids of the TPP, so he tried to disguise his support.

Modesto Bee reporter Nan Austin asked Denham's office for a comment on the rather blunt and unambiguous accusations against him that are being driven up and down CA-10 and into almost every city and town Denham represents. "Congressman Jeff Denham just voted to cut your mom’s Medicare by $700 million to finance a trade agenda that sends your job to China" was not what Denham wanted voters thinking about when they sat down to decide between him and Democrat Michael Eggman.

The Denham camp called the signs "disingenuous and misleading."

"Congressman Denham supported legislation to eliminate the Medicare cuts that were contained in the Senate version of TPA, and he supported legislation to increase trade and bring jobs to the Central Valley. This a disingenuous and misleading line of attack," said Denham Press Secretary Jordan Langdon, in response to a Bee inquiry.

Blue America, however, stood behind the Blue America Pac political ads, saying the message referred to an earlier vote that included the Medicare cut. Denham voted against that portion of what was then a two-part package, but the group called that a slight of hand.

"Costa voted for both halves. Denham voted for one half. But the clear intent of the House Republicans was to pass both halves," said a Blue America spokesman who would give only the pen name Gaius Publius. "Any vote for any piece was a vote for the whole package to succeed," he said in a phone interview Tuesday.

GOP Dysfunction And Failure Are Attracting Quality Candidates To Congressional Races

Back in February 34% of Americans were very confident that Ryan's plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act would make healthcare better. Does that sound like a small number of people? Since then, people have had a chance to see Ryan's concrete plans (TrumpCare) and according to the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll that number has shrunk... to 8%. And a Washington Post poll shows something even more bizarre, namely that large numbers of Trump voters reject the actual core ideas around which the Republican health plan is premised. For example, a majority of these Trump voters-- just like normal people-- favor a national ban on hiking premiums on preexisting conditions. Turning this into a potentially even more toxic brew is the revelation that most voters in key swing states which Trump carried--Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania-- now finally understand that Trump is a liar. Just over half of the Republicans in those states say he exaggerates the truth, while close to 70% of Democrats say he intentionally lies. Luckily for Señor Trumpanzee, most voters (84%) operate from an assumption that all Republican politicians lie and that he's isn't special in that way.

How many 2018 Republican-held House seats does this imperil? That same Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that dissatisfaction with congressional Republicans in general and with Paul Ryan in particular is growing exponentially. Only 22% of voters now see Paul Ryan positively-- and nearly double that number have a negative impression of him. In February there was just a 1% gap between those who liked him and those who didn't. The gap is now 18%-- and not in Ryan's favor. Only one in five Americans think Congress-- completely controlled by the Republican Party-- is doing a satisfactory job.

Just in the last two days, more grassroots (as opposed to DCCC-imposed) Democratic congressional candidates have come on the radar. A progressive emergency room nurse, activist and former Riverbank city councilwoman, Dotty Nygard, tossed her hat into the ring for the CA-10 seat held by confused Republican Jeff Denham. The Central Valley district, which stretches from Tracy, Manteca and Riverbank in the north through Modesto and down to Turlock and Newman in the south, saw Obama win twice and Hillary beat Trump 48.5% to 45.5% while the DCCC screwed up the congressional races in this white minority district again and again and again. In her Facebook statement she said that "an elected representative should embody the ideals, strengths, and spirit of the people they represent. Equally important, they must understand the concerns and struggles we face as individuals and as a community. An elected official must show leadership and dedication to their constituents, rather than sacrifice our future to the highest bidder. Here's my pledge to you: I will bring back the caring, compassion, and community that is often lost in the mundane, indifferent, business-as-usual culture in Washington and our Political establishment. I am running for congress to say enough is enough on your behalf!"


NO MORE playing politics with our Healthcare,


NO MORE playing politics with our natural resources,


NO MORE playing politics with our children's education or our ability to earn a living wage and support our families.

"We deserve better! We need to preserve and protect the nation's leading agricultural industry here within our rich Central Valley soils. The future sustainability of our region hangs in the balance, and will be decided at the voting booth in 2018. We must embrace our diversity and respect the tradition of immigration at the core of our Nation's heritage. I will stand FOR you, and I will march WITH you! Our needs and values should NOT be lost in the political process but our voices should be heard THROUGH it."

Another crucial Central Valley race is starting to take shape due south of CA-10, down the 99 Freeway past Merced and Madera, you get to Fresno and Visalia, the two main cities in CA-22, Devin Nunes' district. The DCCC has never challenged Nunes but he's made such a spectacle of himself over Putin-Gate that interest in ending his career in Congress is now sky-high. Yesterday the first candidate to jump into the race was Fresno County prosecutor Andrew Janz, a 33 year old who told the Fresno Bee that he's "not a politician; I’ve never considered running for Congress until recently.

Republicans hold a significant voter registration advantage in the district-- 42.8 percent of voters identify themselves as Republicans, compared to 32.8 percent Democrats. But a significant proportion of the voters-- more than 19 percent-- listed no party preference on their registration as of February.

Janz said he’s undaunted and believes there may be some momentum building toward the 2018 election because of Trump’s volatile, confrontational style and proposals over health care and taxes. “I feel like I have a connection with the district,” he said. “I believe I share the values of a lot of the people in the district.”

While he’s a lifelong Democrat, “I’m not the type of person who votes the party line,” Janz said. “I’m willing to listen to anyone… I’m going to focus on building a coalition of progressives, moderates and people who share the values of the area.”

And Sunday, on the other side of the country, in western North Carolina, a potential Democratic superstar, Matt Coffay, announced his candidacy at a healthcare-focused town hall event in Waynesville. Matt, a leader of Our Revolution in North Carolina is taking on Freedom Caucus head man Mark Meadows in NC-11, a viciously gerrymandered district that is a prime example of what corrupted overly partisan legislators can do to undermine democracy. The district went for Romney 60.4-39.6% and then for Trump 63.2-34.0%. It was Trump's strongest score in the state. Coffay appears undaunted by the challenge.


At the event Sunday he told the crowd of several hundred that "America is at a crossroads. Our Republic is eroding into a country of partisan bickering and vast income inequality, with millions of hardworking people left behind by a changing economy. We need to sustain the activist energy that's emerged in Western North Carolina and carry it all the way through midterm elections. We’re going to build the biggest grassroots movement that the 11th District has ever seen, and that’s why we’re starting the campaign right now... I’m going to stand up to the health insurance industry and the pharmaceutical industry. I’m going to stand up and say that it’s time we raised the minimum to a living wage of $15 an hour, and that we need tuition free public college. We need infrastructure investment here in Western North Carolina, and we need the jobs that infrastructure investment will bring. With your help, we’re going to raise the money that we need, and we’re going to go all the way to Washington, D.C., to change the face of American politics."

If The DCCC Manages To Lose CA-10 Again, Should That Trigger Capital Punishment For The Incompetent Committee?

A staffer at the DCCC called me the other day out of the blue-- me... who usually has some pretty unkind words for the committee-- and asked me if I knew anyone who wanted to run against Jeff Denham in CA-10, a district at the northern end of the Central Valley that includes Modesto, Turlock, Manteca, Ripon and Tracy. It's a nice blue district east of San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose. Obama beat McCain there 50-48% and beat Romney 51-47%. Even Hillary won, albeit without a majority: 48.5% to 45.5%. The district is just 45% white but the DCCC has consistently managed to blow winning the district. The congressman is Jeff Denham, a Republican backbencher with nothing to recommend him and nothing to keep him in office other than sheer and determined DCCC incompetence.

Even as Trump was losing to Hillary Denham was being reelected against the DCCC's uninspiring candidate, Michael Eggman, a bee rancher. Denham won 124,671 (51.7%) to 116,470 (48.3%). In 2014 Denham had beaten Eggman 56-44% and two years earlier had beaten astronaut Jose Hernandez 53-47%. In 2016 Denham spent $4,174,467 to Engman's $1,551,905. Ryan's Congressional Leadership Fund kicked in $3,305,985 to help Denham and that was countered by $3,781,667 from the DCCC and another $1,019,837 from Pelosi's House Majority PAC. The only thing that could have made Eggman's dreary and pointless campaign any worse would have been the participation of EMILY's List. It was a standard variety DCCC contentless shit-show with nothing going for it except the hope that Hillary's margin would be big enough to pull their small candidate-with-nothing-to-offer to victory.

The DCCC has identified CA-10 as a target district. But they have no candidate yet. After two runs the name Eggman is pretty familiar and some are arguing for his sister, Susan Talamantes Eggman, an Assemblywoman who doesn't live in the district but was born and raised in Turlock and represents the sliver of CA-10 around Tracy. She's openly gay and she's part Latino. I don't know what's spooking Denham but Monday night at a raucous downhill meeting in tiny, off-the-beaten track and overwhelmingly white Denair, Denham was booed and heckled so much that he claimed he believes in Climate Change and announced that "he wouldn't support his party's healthcare legislation unless it left significant parts of Obamacare intact." He doesn't want any of Trump's rampaging toxicity to rub off on him.

"I've expressed to leadership that I'm a 'no' on the healthcare vote until it is responsive to my community," he said during a town hall meeting with hundreds of voters in his district.

"There are things in the Affordable Care Act we expect to stay," Denham added, such as coverage for pre-existing conditions and expanded Medicaid coverage.

How many dozen times did Denham vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act? And... when the DCCC announces their candidate, will it make Denham breath easier-- or make him denounce Trump at every opportunity?

Why Grassroots Democratic Activists Have Had It With The DCCC

Anger at the DCCC is spreading. Well, anger at the DCCC has been huge for over a decade; that it's being talked about more openly and more aggressively at the grassroots level is what's different. Chris Van Hollen and Steve Israel lost dozens and dozens of Democratic House seats (incumbents) and ruined the chances of even more Democratic challengers trying to beat Republicans. Their DCCC organization is riven with self-serving, careerism and corruption and, some would say, even worse: incompetence. John Ellis isn't a Beltway hack. He lives in California's Central Valley and writes about politics for the Fresno Bee. Over the weekend he focused on how Democrats in the Central Valley feel about the DCCC trying to run their party. The story could be written about anyplace in the country. Contempt for the DCCC is nearly universal. Democrats in the Central Valley-- and everywhere else-- all feel the DCCC "is more a hindrance than a help in winning local elections." When you read this, keep in mind that Obama won-- by increasing margins-- his Central Valley elections while the DCCC was losing (all) theirs:

• CA 21- Obama over McCain 52-46%, Obama over Romney 55-44%
• CA 10- Obama over McCain 50-48%, Obama over Romney 51-47%

The DCCC, local Democrats say, recruits congressional candidates with little local input. It imposes out-of-state staffers on these candidates, many of whom never have run a campaign in the Valley and instead rely on their knowledge from working other races-- an approach that doesn’t work here. Worse, local Democrats say, those staffers don’t want local experience on how to run an effective campaign.


Much of the anger and frustration centers on the 21st Congressional District, where Hanford Republican David Valadao has trounced two straight Democratic Party challengers, even though Democrats have a commanding 17 percentage point lead in voter registration over the rival GOP. To a lesser extent, it is also the case in the 10th Congressional District, which is represented by Turlock Republican Jeff Denham. In that district, Republicans hold a slim registration advantage.

“There’s a frustration with the DCCC deciding what the rules are,” says Doug Kessler, Region 8 director for the state Democratic Party, an area that covers the Valley. “We want some say who a candidate is, and more importantly, have people who respect and understand the Valley and do not dictate to us.”


Defenders of the DCCC say the goal for the national organization is the same as local Democrats-- to win [which is an interesting argument since they never win, only lose]. Whatever the DCCC does, they say, is done with an eye toward victory.


In a short statement, the DCCC said pretty much the same thing.

“The Central Valley deserves a representative that will stand up for them in Washington, unlike David Valadao,” spokeswoman Barb Solish said. “We are confident that a strong Democrat can and will win this seat.”

Local Democrats, however, aren’t convinced.




Last year, Valley native Amanda Renteria returned home from Washington, D.C., with a sterling résumé and a mission to unseat Valadao. She raised more than $1.7 million. She lost in a landslide.

Renteria was well liked locally, and there is broad agreement that she worked hard.

But some local Democrats say she was handcuffed by the DCCC.


Her first campaign manager came from Boston with previous political experience that included a stint as campaign manager for Boston Mayor Thomas Menino as well as time working for John Edwards’ presidential campaign and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill’s campaign. After the primary election, she left and was replaced by someone from the Los Angeles area.

Victor Moheno, a Visalia attorney and prominent Valley Democrat, liked Renteria and thought she had promise. He recalled the start of the campaign, when he and other local Democrats recommended a kickoff event that would identify local leaders in the district’s major towns, and then send Renteria on a campaign kickoff caravan across the district. It would, Moheno said, give the campaign a grassroots feel.

The suggestion fell on deaf ears and went nowhere.

Moheno said the second campaign manager was Hispanic like Renteria and a majority of the 21st District, but he was from Los Angeles.

“There’s an urban-rural distinction among Latinos that is dramatic,” Moheno said. “It ain’t the same. He didn’t run a Valley campaign. Sadly, those are the pros. They get paid a lot of money, but they don’t listen to people.”

Valadao ended up beating Renteria by the same 15-percentage point margin as his 2012 win over Fresno Democrat John Hernandez, who ran a campaign on a shoestring budget and had nearly no DCCC support.

“Unfortunately, I think it’s the culture of the Democratic Party hierarchy,” Moheno says of the tendency toward top-down micromanaging, be it from Sacramento or Washington.

After the loss, Democrats chalked it up-- at least partly-- to low turnout and a bad overall showing nationally by Democrats. They then looked to 2016, a presidential election year with guaranteed higher turnout, and said they would do better in their quest to knock off Valadao.


But this year-- a key time leading up to the 2016 election when candidates decide to run and start raising money and earning endorsements-- has been a disaster for Democrats.

Kessler recalls a Region 8 Democratic Party meeting in Visalia this past summer, when the DCCC was invited. The organization ended up attending via telephone-- and got an earful. The message to the DCCC: Why don’t you care about the Valley?

Holly Andradé Blair, executive board representative for the Kings County Democratic Central Committee, wonders if the DCCC does care.

“I’m proud to come from Kings County and proud to be from the Valley,” she says. “I enjoy living here, and when outsiders, particularly the DCCC-- they’re clear across the country-- look at this area, it’s an afterthought. It gets to me. We’re not an afterthought.”

Then, Fowler Mayor Pro Tem Daniel Parra was the only Democratic challenger to Valadao.

He entered the race in mid-April but has been unable to raise money. As of Sept. 30, he had raised less than $40,000 and has a little more than $10,000 in his campaign account.

The DCCC wasn’t impressed and began looking for another candidate, a move that upset some local Democrats.

In early September, word leaked that Tulare County native Connie Perez was being courted by the DCCC. In mid-October she announced her run using a slick campaign video. Less than a month later, she was out.

For some Democrats, she couldn’t be gone soon enough. Perez was a Tulare County native but was living in Pasadena while she worked as a partner at the Bakersfield-based Brown Armstrong Accountancy Corp. It also seemed she was hand-picked and groomed by the DCCC. Her campaign announcement came from a prominent Democratic communications firm in Los Angeles.

“What’s important about representation is we pick somebody we want to represent us, not some Democrats in Washington, D.C., or in Sacramento,” Blair said. “I don’t want somebody from outside picking my candidate for me. I’m perfectly capable of choosing my own candidate. Even if that candidate loses, it’s my choice.”

But it was no picnic for Perez, some supporters say.

She was being micromanaged by the DCCC, they contend. The organization designed her campaign and demanded she use their vendors. That means, for instance, that well-known Valley pollster Jim Moore was out, even though he knows the region. The DCCC would withhold money unless the candidate played by its rules, Perez supporters say.

A short time later, Bakersfield City School District Trustee Andrae Gonzales said he was exploring a run. A week later, he decided against it.

Now, the name of Bakersfield attorney Emilio Huerta, son of United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta, has emerged.

The National Republican Congressional Committee-- the DCCC’s Washington, D.C., counterpart-- is watching the spectacle with glee, firing off snarky emails with each Democratic Party move in the 21st District. One sentence in a news release on Huerta’s possible candidacy starts, “After four high-profile rejections…”

By this time, local Democrats say, the DCCC shouldn’t be recruiting candidates but should instead be turning its attention to winning the election.


Moheno, the Visalia Democrat, says the locals learned what it takes to win congressional elections with Cal Dooley, a Democrat who used to hold the seat that now covers much of the same territory as Valadao’s 21st District.

Others say home-grown success goes beyond congressional wins with Dooley or Fresno Democrat Jim Costa-- it also stretches to the state Senate and Assembly, to Democrats like former state Sen. Michael Rubio and outgoing Assemblyman Henry T. Perea.

The reason those Democrats won in the Valley, they say, is they understood the need to be moderate and to win crossover support from agriculture and business. Going too far left, they say, is a death knell here, but it is often part of the DCCC playbook.

Blair, the Kings County Democrat, says being local is also important, as is visiting little towns like Stratford, Avenal and Kettleman City.

“In Kings County, Democrats here will vote for a local person every time over an outsider,” she says. “Even a Republican.”

Maybe that’s why the NRCC is hitting on Huerta not for having UFW lineage, but for living just a few miles outside the 21st District’s boundaries.

Michael Evans, chairman of the Fresno County Democratic Central Committee, says there must be an understanding that the Valley’s political landscape is not only unlike the rest of California, but also the rest of the nation. Within the Valley, Kings County is different from Fresno County. These nuanced differences make local input into campaigns vital, he says.

“If you bring someone in from Sacramento, they have maybe a little bit of understanding, but you bring someone in from D.C., they have zero understanding, so yeah, that can be very frustrating,” Evans says.

The Democrats will never win back the House-- never-- until the disastrous Rahm Emanuel/Chris Van Hollen/Steve Israel Republican-lite recruitment policy and their highhanded decision to override local Democrats are laid to rest. If the DCCC is supporting a candidate, be very wary before contributing or even voting for him or her. It's up to all of us to help defund the DCCC careerists. You can contribute to progressive candidates directly through ActBlue.




Van Hollen's strategy immediately lost 63 House seats... but he still insists on it