Friday, June 12, 2020

Countries Dominated By Incompetent Authoritarian Leaders Have Been Unable To Cope With The Pandemic-- What Will It Take To Make Their Citizens Rise Up?

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A modern day tableau like this is only wishful thinking for Russians, Americans, Indians... but what about Brazilians?

A lot of people have noticed that countries with anti-democratic authoritarian leaders-- namely, the U.S., Brazil, Russia and India-- are being hit hardest by the pandemic. It's almost like God wants to punish fascists, especially incompetent fascists:
Señor Trumpanzee- 2,116,428 confirmed cases
Bolsonaro- 829,902
Putin- 511,423
Modi- 309,603
Boris Johnson- 292,950
Erdoğan 1,195 New cases today), Khamenei 2,369 new cases today), el-Sisi (1,577 new cases today) and bin Salman (3,921 new cases yesterday) are watching their countries-- respectively Turkey, Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia-- spiking gigantically everyday and catching up to the Big Five. Meanwhile, though, a question: are people getting restless, angry and frustrated enough to work towards removing their horrible leaders? Not really... except Trump will be out on his fat ass in January. And then there's Brazil. They've been having frightening surges every day-- 31,197 new cases Tuesday and 1,185 new deaths (the most of any country in the world), 33,100 new cases Wednesday as well as 1,300 new deaths (again the worst in the world) and 27,644 new cases yesterday and 1,123 new deaths (worst in the world)... Today: 24,253 new cases and 843 new deaths so far.

Writing for the New York Times Wednesday, Simon Romero, Letícia Casado and Manuela Andreoni reported that with daily corona-deaths topping anywhere else in them world, with investors bailing on Brazil, with Bolsonaro, his sons and his allies under investigation and his election possibly about to be overturned, "some of the most powerful military figures in Brazil are warning of instability." Bolsonaro and his cronies are embracing the idea of military intervention. "In fact, one of the president’s sons, a congressman who has praised the country’s former military dictatorship, said a similar institutional break was inevitable. 'It’s no longer an opinion about if, but when this will happen,' the president’s son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, recently told a prominent Brazilian blogger, warning of what he called a looming 'rupture' in Brazil’s democratic system."

Bolsonaro-19... worse for Brazil than COVID-19?

The standoff traces an ominous arc for Brazil, a country that shook off military rule in the 1980s and built a thriving democracy in its wake. Within two decades, Brazil had come to represent the energy and promise of the developing world, with a booming economy and the right to host the World Cup and the Olympics.

Since then, its economy has faltered, corruption scandals have toppled or ensnared many of its leaders and an impeachment battle ousted its powerful leftist government.

Mr. Bolsonaro, a former Army captain, stepped into this tumult, celebrating the country’s military past and promising to restore order. But he has come under blistering criticism for downplaying the virus, sabotaging isolation measures and cavalierly presiding over one of the highest death tolls in the world, saying, “We are sorry for all the dead, but that’s everyone’s destiny.”

He, his family and his supporters are also being pursued on allegations like abuse of power, corruption and illegally spreading misinformation. Yet nearly half of his cabinet is made up of military figures, and now, critics contend, he is relying on the threat of military intervention to ward off challenges to his presidency.

A retired general in Mr. Bolsonaro’s cabinet, Augusto Heleno, the national security adviser, shook the nation in May when he warned of “unpredictable consequences for national stability” after the Supreme Court let an inquiry into Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters move forward.

Another general, the defense minister, swiftly endorsed the provocation, while Mr. Bolsonaro lashed out as well, suggesting that the police ignore the “absurd orders” of the court.

“This is destabilizing the country, right during a pandemic,” said Sergio Moro, the former justice minister who broke with Mr. Bolsonaro in April, said of the threats of military intervention. Though he considers military action unlikely, he added: “It is reprehensible. The country does not need to be living with this type of threat.”

Political leaders and analysts agree that military intervention seems unlikely. Even so, the possibility is hanging over the nation’s democratic institutions, which are scrutinizing Mr. Bolsonaro and his family on multiple fronts.

Two of the president’s sons are under investigation for the kind of disinformation and defamation campaigns that helped get their father elected in 2018, and late last month the federal police raided several properties tied to influential allies of Mr. Bolsonaro. The Superior Electoral Court, which oversees elections, has the authority to use evidence from the inquiry to annul the election and remove Mr. Bolsonaro from office.

Two of his sons are also under investigation for corruption, and the Supreme Court recently authorized an inquiry into allegations that Mr. Bolsonaro tried to replace the federal police chief in order to protect his family and friends.

Even the president’s handling of the pandemic is under legal threat: On Monday, a Supreme Court justice ordered the government to stop suppressing data on Brazil’s surging death toll.

The threats of military intervention have incited a broad backlash, even from some senior members of the armed forces. And General Heleno, the national security adviser, later said that he did not support a coup, contending he was misunderstood.

Still, military and civilian officials in Mr. Bolsonaro’s own administration-- as well as allies of the president in Congress, evangelical megachurches and military associations-- say the maneuvering is aimed at heading off any attempts by Brazil’s legislative and judicial institutions to oust the president.

Silas Malafaia, a right-wing televangelist close to Mr. Bolsonaro, insisted that the president had not told him of any plan for military intervention. Still, he argued that the armed forces had the right to prevent courts from overstepping or even ousting the president.

“That’s not a coup,” Mr. Malafaia said. “It’s instilling order where there is disorder.”

The pro-Bolsonaro officials issuing such threats are generally not referring to the way coups have often been carried out in Latin America, with the armed forces toppling a civilian leader to install one of their own.

Instead, they seem to be urging something similar to what happened in Peru in 1992, when Alberto Fujimori, the right-wing leader, used the armed forces to dissolve Congress, reorganize the judiciary and hunt down political opponents.


Mr. Bolsonaro, who still draws support from about 30 percent of Brazilians, already casts himself as the embodiment of Brazilian military culture, and portrays the armed forces as ethical and efficient managers.

Brazil’s armed forces already exercise exceptional influence in his government. Military figures, including retired four-star generals, account for 10 of 22 ministers in the cabinet. The government has named nearly 2,900 other active-duty members of the military to administration posts.

The clout of Brazil’s armed forces was on display when congressional leaders mostly exempted them from a 2019 pensions overhaul, allowing members of the military to avoid the deeper benefits cuts endured by other parts of society.

Mr. Bolsonaro’s pandemic response showcased the military’s rising profile in his government-- as well the risks for leaders of the armed forces when Brazilians start ascribing blame as things go badly awry.

...Sidelined and balking at expanding the use of hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug promoted by Mr. Bolsonaro that has not been proven effective against the virus, the health minister was replaced. His successor lasted only a few weeks until he resigned, replaced by an army general, Eduardo Pazuello.

One former official in the health ministry said the abrupt changes created a sense of chaos within the agency, resulting in weeks of dysfunction and paralysis at the most crucial time-- when the country should have been fighting the uncontrolled spread of the virus.

...Carlos Fico, a historian at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro who studies the Brazilian military, said the growing power of the armed forces carried the risk of revealing their incompetence in crucial areas.

“They think that bombastic declarations will make things happen as in the military realm, where an order is given and those of lower rank obey,” Mr. Fico said.

But with the military now guiding the pandemic response, Mr. Fico added, “They’re running the risk of being blamed by society for what happens next.”

Top allies of Mr. Bolsonaro insist that the armed forces have no plans for a coup. “Not one four-star general is in favor of military intervention,” said Sostenes Cavalcante, a right-wing congressman.

But in the same breath, Mr. Cavalcante argued that something must be done to curb the power of the Supreme Court. He contended that the talk of a coup by Mr. Bolsonaro’s son was merely a way of pressuring the judiciary.

“You could interpret that as the Supreme Court having overstepped its authority,” Mr. Cavalcante said.

At the same time, some officials within Mr. Bolsonaro’s administration are actively examining scenarios in which the military might intervene. One military official in the government who was not authorized to speak publicly said an intervention remained off the radar for now, but that certain moves by the judiciary, such as ordering a search of Mr. Bolsonaro’s palace as part of an investigation, could change that.

Similarly, the official added, any potential annulment of the 2018 election by a judge would also be considered unacceptable, because it would remove not only Mr. Bolsonaro, but also his running mate and vice president, Hamilton Mourão, a retired general.

Mr. Mourão has repeatedly asserted that no kind of military takeover is under consideration. But even the debate over military intervention is raising concern about the resilience of Brazil’s democratic institutions and a return to chronic political instability, with constant military meddling.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a former civilian president who was exiled during the military dictatorship, said he didn’t think a coup was imminent. But he worried that Mr. Bolsonaro’s intimidation tactics could intensify.

How do democracies die? You don’t need a military coup,” Mr. Cardoso, 88, who has already urged Mr. Bolsonaro to resign, told reporters. “The president himself can seek extraordinary powers, and he can take them.”





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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Other Countries Are Coping-- Or Not Coping-- With The Pandemic As Well

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A couple of weeks ago I visited my doctor at the cancer hospital she works in. The policy there has always been to not admit anyone with infectious diseases. The hospital just cares for cancer patients and is also a major research center for cancer cures. A huge number of patients are immune-compromised and any kind of infection could be a death sentence. During our chat, she told me that doctors there had been asked-- I didn't ask by who but I assumed it was a government entity-- to start wrapping their heads around ceasing to treat elderly cancer patients. I think she said 60 or 65. She was horrified at the prospect.

Soon after someone sent me the video from a doctor in Madrid who was even more distraught than my doctor. Weeping, he said that in Madrid coronavirus patients over the age of 65 were being sedated and allowed to die because there aren't enough respirators in Spain. He mentioned that elderly patients were removed from respirators if they were currently being kept alive by them.


In the past three years, Trump "ignored multiple direct warnings-- briefings, reports, simulations, intelligence assessments-- that a pandemic was likely and that the government didn’t have enough masks, ventilators, or antiviral drugs to deal with it. His administration was told exactly what to do: second-guess case detection rates, prepare rapid production of tests, and line up extra funding and personal protective equipment. He did none of it. He stiffed a budget request for preparedness funds, and he disbanded the National Security Council unit in charge of pandemics... Trump’s administration learned of the outbreak in China around New Year’s Day, but he brushed off briefings about it, figuring it hadn’t spread in the United States. (The CDC offered to send its own experts to China, but China refused, and Trump-- overriding advice and U.S. intelligence-- backed off.) On Jan. 21, the CDC reported the first known American infection. But in an interview on CNBC, Trump scoffed, 'It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.' Data released by the World Health Organization showed the coronavirus was killing victims at a far higher rate than swine flu did. (That remains true, even though calculated mortality rates from the coronavirus have declined.) But the Trump administration didn’t declare a public health emergency until Jan. 31. The president had to be pushed to ban travelers from China, and he did nothing domestically. In late January, the administration rebuffed an HHS request for money to buy masks and other emergency supplies. Throughout February, as U.S. intelligence agencies monitored the spread of the virus in Europe and Asia, Trump insisted the United States was safe. When a CDC official raised concerns in public, Trump rebuked her for scaring the stock market."

"We're told to put on a brave face," said another doctor in Madrid whose audio tape the doctor in the video played, "fill up with courage and go to work knowing that you are going to have to let many people die." He wants to penalize the politicians who-- like Trump-- were too cowardly to act fast and decisively while the pandemic grew; he wants their salaries to be docked and used to buy respirators. The video is heartbreaking.

The fascist-leaning Trumpist president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, sounded like the other side of that coin. People are demanding his resignation because he has been telling Brazilians to stay at work, ignore safety guidelines, "take it like a man" and reminding his countrymen that "we all must die one day." On Sunday, Twitter deleted two of his tweets in which he questioned quarantine measures aimed at containing the coronavirus, on the grounds that they violated the social network's rules.

Typhoid Mary shakes hands with Captain Corona

The far-right leader had posted several videos in which he flouted his government's social distancing guidelines by mixing with supporters on the streets of Brasilia and urging them to keep the economy going.

Two of the posts were removed and replaced with a notice explaining why they had been taken down.

Twitter explained in a statement that it had recently expanded its global rules on managing content that contradicted public health information from official sources and could put people at greater risk of transmitting COVID-19.

In one of the deleted videos, Bolsonaro tells a street vendor, "What I have been hearing from people is that they want to work."

"What I have said from the beginning is that 'we are going to be careful, the over-65s stay at home,'" he said.

"We just can't stand still, there is fear because if you don't die of the disease, you starve," the vendor is seen telling Bolsonaro, who responds: "You're not going to die!"

In another video, the president calls for a "return to normality," questioning quarantine measures imposed by governors and some mayors across the giant South American country as an effective containment measure against the virus.

"If it continues like this, with the amount of unemployment what we will have later is a very serious problem that will take years to be resolved," he said of the isolation measures.

"Brazil cannot stop or we'll turn into Venezuela," Bolsonaro later told reporters outside his official residence.

On Saturday, Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta highlighted the importance of containment as a means of fighting the coronavirus, which has already infected 3,904 people in Brazil, leaving 114 dead, according to the latest official figures.

"Some people want me to shut up, follow the protocols," said Bolsonaro. "How many times does the doctor not follow the protocol?"

"Let's face the virus with reality. It is life, we must all die one day."

In the four videos posted on his Twitter account, Bolsonaro is seen surrounded by small crowds as he walked about the capital.

Bolsonaro has described the coronavirus as "a flu" and advocated the reopening of schools and shops, with self-isolation necessary solely for the over-60s.
It's easy to say, "Brazil elected this psychopath; they deserve what he does to them." Fair enough-- for the 57,797,847 people who voted for him-- but what about the 47,040,906, who voted against him? They don't deserve to die-- not any more than the people -- a majority-- in the U.S. who voted against Trump do.

Tom Phillips, reporting from Rio for The Guardian yesterday, wrote that Brazilians are demanding Bolsonaro resign for "downplaying the virus and willfully undermining efforts to slow its advance with shutdowns and quarantines."
“Brazil and the world are facing an emergency unprecedented in modern history … [and] in our country the emergency is exacerbated by an irresponsible president. Jair Bolsonaro is the greatest obstacle to urgent decisions being taken to reduce the spread of the infection [and] save lives,” said the document, first published in the Folha de São Paulo newspaper.

They added: “Bolsonaro is in no position to keep governing Brazil... He commits crimes… lies and fosters chaos, taking advantage of the despair of our most vulnerable citizens.

“We need unity and understanding to face up to the pandemic, not a president who goes against public health authorities and puts his authoritarian political interests above the lives of everyone else.

“Bolsonaro is more than a political problem-- he has become a public health problem… He should resign,” they concluded.

“He needs to be urgently contained and must answer for the crimes he is committing against our people.”

The declaration, Brazil Cannot Be Destroyed By Bolsonaro, was signed by leading voices from across the Brazilian left including Ciro Gomes, Flávio Dino, Manuela d’Ávila, Fernando Haddad and Guilherme Boulos.

Ciro Gomes said Bolsonaro’s conduct represented “the difference between hundred of thousands of deaths or tens of thousands of deaths in Brazil.”

“I believe he must answer for crimes against humanity at the International Court of Justice in the Hague-- and I will work towards this,” Gomes told The Guardian.

Asked what his message to Bolsonaro was, Gomes said: “Resign, you reckless man.”

Boulos said the irresponsible, erratic and backwards behaviour of Bolsonaro-- who one Brazilian commentator this week nicknamed “Captain Corona”-- meant he had to go.

“More than a political crisis, Bolsonaro now represents a public health problem,” Boulos told The Guardian. “We see no way for Bolsonaro to continue governing the country-- this will cost Brazil a tremendous number of human lives.”

Boulos claimed Bolsonaro’s undermining of quarantine and social distancing measures was partly the result of his being beholden to business owners who opposed a shutdown because it meant they would lose money.

“He represents the most perverse economic interests that couldn’t care less about people’s lives. They’re worried about maintaining their profitability,” Boulos said.

Bolsonaro has rejected criticism of his response, which he claims is designed to protect workers and the economy. “We’re going to tackle the virus but tackle it like fucking men-- not like kids,” Brazil’s president declared on Sunday.
And brief blurbs from around the word:

Phuket is a tropical island developed for tourism off the southwest coast on Thailand. It gets something like 39 million tourists a year. But not this year. Yesterday, the government closed down all points of entry.

Moscow is on lockdown but some people weren't paying any attention to the guidelines yesterday (day 1) and others deny the seriousness of the pandemic and, like Trump and Bolsonaro, dismiss it as a flu.


At least Putin didn't lick Protsenko's hand



Can you imagine someone deciding to go on a cruise now? People do. And, of course, they get coronavirus and some die. There are two Holland America ships that have been stranded in the Pacific and which Panama finally decided to allow to traverse the Panama Canal-- without stopping-- in order to get into the Caribbean. There are dead people and sick people and the ships hope to be allowed to dock in Fort Lauderdale. One ship, the Zaandam has 1,243 guests and 586 crew and 138 suspected cases (and 4 bodies).

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Saturday, March 28, 2020

So How's The Battle Against The Pandemic Going So Far?

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Die For Him Grampa by Nancy Ohanian

Yesterday ALG Research e-mailed subscribers with the results of their own tracking of the pandemic. They wrote that the U.S. currently has a patchwork of restrictions in place [a highly ineffective way to deal with the pandemic]. The whole country has to be shut down-- and really shut down-- for this to work. Right now, Democratic governors who have taken at least some action in that direction are in these states:

Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisiana, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Three Republican governors in blue states have also ordered shutdowns-- New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts-- and 5 Republican governor in red states have also taken action-- Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Idaho and Alaska.

Do shutdowns work? Yes, if they retreated seriously. Statistical proof.

Local governments are also taking action in states with governors who are part of the Republican Party death cult-- like Birmingham in Alabama and all over Texas and Florida. Meanwhile "school closures have impacted 55 million students, more people are working from home or furloughed, unemployment claims have skyrocketed, and news covering the virus has completely captured the attention of the American public. According to Gallup two-thirds of Americans say that coronavirus has disrupted their lives either a great deal (30%) or a fair amount (36%), and more than half expect things to remain this way for a few more months.



In terms of behavior, polling done by Ipsos in partnership with Axios has found that as weeks go by, more people are under self-quarantine, have stopped attending large gatherings, have cancelled travel and have stopped going out to eat and visiting friends. (This poll is part of a weekly tracking survey fielded on the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, and will be useful in following changes in daily life (and emotional state) that we need to be on the lookout for.)



The latest numbers from a Washington Post-ABC News poll show that roughly 9 in 10 say they are staying home "as much as possible" and say they have stopped going to bars and restaurants. About 6 in 10 say they have stockpiled food and household supplies at home. Their poll was conducted March 22-25, just after the Ipsos poll, so we're able to see how people's personal activities and behaviors continue to change, seemingly overnight, as fears grow.

An Emerson College/Nexstar National Poll finds a large majority of respondents (70%) are somewhat or very worried that they or an immediate family member may catch coronavirus.

Americans' are even more concerned about their personal finances. A plurality (42%) are very concerned about their personal finances, 36% are somewhat concerned, with 33% not so concerned.

Navigator Research found that 58% of respondents under 45 know someone who has lost their job, and 20% of Americans' now say they are dipping into their savings.

According to the Ipsos/Axios poll mentioned earlier, sharply increased numbers of Americans report worsening mental health (35% worse vs 22% last week) and emotional well-being (43% from 29%).

...FiveThirtyEight's polling average today has Trump's approval rating at 45.8%, with disapproval at 49.6%. According to a recent CBS News poll, a majority say President Trump is doing a good job handling the outbreak (53%), and 54% are optimistic about his administration's ability to handle it from here.

Trump has experienced a rise in popularity-- with some polling giving him 49% approval, the highest of his presidency-- which some attribute to a "presidential approval rally effect." Per Gallup, presidential job approval has historically increased when the country is faced by a national threat. Every president from Franklin Roosevelt (World War 2) through George W. Bush (9/11, +35 point bump) saw their approval rating rocket at least 10 points after a significant national event of this kind.

New York Magazine has a story called Trump's Approval Ratings Are Up, But for How Long? that speculates on how the pandemic and the corresponding economic fallout could impact Trump's hopes for re-election. It's impossible to predict what will happen in November, but this story looks at data and trends and is an interesting read.

Most Americans (57%) say the nation's efforts to combat the coronavirus are going badly right now, and most see a months-long process before it is contained.

Gallup conducted polling on the coronavirus response and found that state governments (i.e., Governors) are the real leaders on responding to the Coronavirus. They receive an 82% approval rating-- 22 points higher than the President.

In Michigan, Governor Gretchen Whitmer (60% pos/22% neg job rating) is outperforming Trump (45% pos/45% neg job rating) in a statewide poll. And in North Carolina, Governor Roy Cooper (63% pos/19% neg job rating) is also outperforming Trump (49% pos/45% neg job rating).

The Gallup chart below shows that the partisan divide is small when looking at approval ratings for hospitals and state governments, but a huge gap exists when looking at Trump, Pence and the news media.



And while most people consider this pandemic to be a crisis, CBS News found that Americans' are optimistic about a few things: scientists' ability to find a vaccine or a cure (82%), their local hospitals' ability to handle an outbreak (65%), as well as in Americans' ability to do what's needed to stop the spread of the virus (59%).

No one knows for sure how things will look in the coming weeks and months. Trump said that he wants to re-open America at Easter, and the New York Times has a piece on what would happen if we did.
Remember, the voices most opposed to the shutdowns, like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Koch network, will always choose lucre over lives. Lee Fang wrote for The Intercept this week that "Americans for Prosperity, the pro-corporate pressure group founded and funded by billionaire industrialist Charles Koch, wants employees to return to work despite desperate pleas from public health officials that people should stay home as much as possible to help contain the spread of the coronavirus. As states began to order nonessential businesses to shut down last week, AFP released a statement calling for all businesses to remain open. 'Rather than blanket shutdowns, the government should allow businesses to continue to adapt and innovate to produce the goods and services Americans need, while continuing to do everything they can to protect the public health,' said Emily Seidel, chief executive of AFP, in a press release.
AFP’s position, which directly contradicts the advice of medical experts who say that social isolation is essential to curbing the spread of the coronavirus, comes after the group lobbied the Trump administration in 2018 to rescind $1 billion from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Much of AFP’s recommended cuts to government programs, which included CDC money for infectious disease control and global health, became part of the official White House budget request, though most were not adopted by Congress.

The cuts, AFP argued, would “relieve the burden overspending is placing on all taxpayers.” The CDC is now one of the front-line organizations dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, which has impacted nearly 70,000 people in the United States and has claimed over 1,000 lives.


The libertarian advocacy network has spent tens of millions of dollars lobbying for corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and reductions to social welfare programs, particularly state Medicaid programs. This aggressive advocacy record has come into focus in recent days as Americans confront the coronavirus pandemic. Medicaid funding is seen as a critical tool for treating sick patients, and many are now questioning the wisdom of reductions to the CDC’s funding and staff.

Internal memos from AFP reveal the size and scope of the organization, which employed 650 staff members during the 2016 election and has successfully worked to block Medicaid expansion in at least four states. During the 2016 election, the group also aired negative advertising sharply criticizing Hillary Clinton and Senate Democrats, an electioneering push that dramatically shaped the current balance of power in Washington, D.C.

The group has since used its government influence to slash environmental rules, retreat from the Paris Climate Accord, and demand cuts to federal programs. It also helped secure $1.5 trillion in tax cuts as part of President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax overhaul.
Let's go back, for a moment to the findings about how Americans trust governors on COVID-19 far more than they trust the dysfunctional narcissistic excuse for a president. The same appears to be true in Brazil, where neo-fascist Trump crony, Jair Bolsonaro, is doing virtually nothing to combat the pandemic threatening his country. Governors to the rescue-- "defying his call to reopen schools and businesses, dismissing his argument that the cure of widespread shutdowns to contain the spread of the new coronavirus is worse than the disease," something Bolsonaro picked up from Señor Trumpanzee.

Like Trump, "Bolsonaro contends that the clampdown already ordered by many governors will deeply wound the already beleaguered economy and spark social unrest. In a nationally televised address Tuesday night, he urged governors to limit isolation only to high-risk people and lift the strict anti-virus measures they have imposed in their regions... he country’s governors protested on Wednesday that his instructions run counter to health experts’ recommendations and endanger Latin America’s largest population. They said they would continue with their strict measures and, in a joint letter, nearly all of them begged the federal government join forces with states. The rebellion even included traditional allies of Brazil’s president."

This week Sasha Abramsky noted a similar pattern here in the U.S.-- governors acting while Trump dawdles on TV and twitter. The entirely incompetent Trumpist Regime "appears frozen in its tracks. With no universal health care system," she wrote, "it is flailing as to how to contain an epidemic when containment strategies rely on early identification of virus carriers. It has struggled to coordinate a national strategy for securing medical supplies. It has shown a shocking inability to even get test kits out to the states. It has no guaranteed paid sick leave-- let alone the concept of guaranteeing wages in exchange for temporarily shuttered companies not firing their workers... Trump, who only reluctantly, and extremely late in the day, was forced to recognize the severity of the pandemic, has dithered and put out scientifically untenable statements, resisted national standards for how to enforce social distancing and expressed his disdain for the notion of stay-home orders and bans on large gatherings. In his public appearances, including an interview on Fox on Tuesday in which he advocated reopening the U.S. for business by Easter, he routinely seems more concerned about the stock market and his own political standing than he is about people’s lives. As a result, it has fallen to state governors and city mayors to try to craft their own responses in order to flatten their local infection curves."




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Friday, March 13, 2020

Friday Morning COVID-19 Update: It's OK To Blame Trump And His Regime

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Trump's coke-fiend chief economic advisor, Larry Kudlow-- too stoned and irrational for Fox News, but just fine for the White House-- told the congressional Republicans early yesterday morning, just days after he lied to them and said the whole COVID-19 was "locked down," that Trump was finally about to sign the disaster order he should have signed in January. Everything Trump is doing now-- when he does something right, which is almost never anyway, is weeks or months behind when he should have acted too prevent the pandemic decimating America.

As Peter Baker noted in his New York Times column yesterday, Presidents Forge Their Legacies In Crisis-- "moments when presidents can rise above prior troubles or sink deeper into them, as Mr. Bush discovered. A onetime political colossus with a 90 percent approval rating built on his response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Mr. Bush’s presidency was marred by Katrina, which became a modern metaphor for a mishandled crisis." Baker doesn't realize it yet, but Bush's mishandling of Katrina is like a 1 on a 10scale of mishandling, compared to Trump's 12 on that same scale. "The history of presidents grappling with crises," he wrote, "is replete with lessons that sometimes go unlearned and examples that go unheeded." That pretty much defines the Trump regime's handling of this catastrophe.



Even Pence accidentally chastised Trump's handling of the crisis. On Today with Savannah Guthrie yesterday, Pence admitted that there has been "irresponsible rhetoric" from people who have downplayed the seriousness of the pandemic in the U.S. He started with a veiled semi-apology and ends with an outrageously false piece of propaganda: "There's been some irresponsible rhetoric, but the American people should know President Trump has no higher priority than the health and safety and well being of the people of this country." They're finally panicking in the White House-- after telling the nation not to when everyone could have been preparing and taking sensible precautions-- and now they're also getting nervous about Trump's reelection. You think headlines like this don't get noticed and dwelled upon?



To the Imbecile-in-Chief, COVID-19 is a "foreign virus" in his boneheaded address to the nation Wednesday night. CNN noted that "The characterization of the global pandemic as a foreign virus aligns with how some Trump allies have described the coronavirus in recent days, which critics have called xenophobic." It's also an incorrect way of thinking about the global pandemic, which is why the U.S. is lagging every other nation on earth in its response. We're all in this together. And the offing imbecile never even mentioned "social distancing" in his speech, something that every American-- even his moron followers-- are going to have to understand and get used to and start practicing if we're going to ever stop this thing.

Reporting for the Associated Press, Jonathan Lemire noted that Trump is continuing to botch up America's response. It's "a challenge for which he appears ill-equipped, his favorite political tactics ineffective and his reelection chances in jeopardy. A rare crisis battering the White House that is not of the president’s own making, the spreading coronavirus has panicked global financial markets and alarmed Americans, many of whom have turned to the Oval Office for guidance and reassurances. But what they have found is a president struggling for a solution, unable to settle Wall Street and proving particularly vulnerable to a threat that is out of his control. In an address to the nation Wednesday night, Trump announced a sweeping travel ban for much of Europe as well as a package of proposals to help steady the teetering economy. But he continued to play down the severity of the situation, painting it as a foreign threat that soon will be banished rather than focusing on managing the growing number of cases at home." He bungled the written response he read on the air Wednesday, sewing the confusion and chaos he's so famous for. The financial markets crashed on the opening again, sinking over 9% before the Fed intervened by announcing "extraordinary funding actions to ease strained capital markets in the wake of the coronavirus sell-off." They are "printing" one and a half a trillion dollars to insert into the markets. They can't do that every day.


"The virus," continued Lemire, "has appeared impervious to the Republican president’s bluster. The virus does not have a Twitter account and, unlike so many previous Trump foes, is resistant to political bullying or Republican Party solidarity. It has preyed on his lack of curiosity and fears of germs while exposing divides and inadequacies within senior levels of his administration. It has taken away Trump’s favorite political tool, his rallies, from which he draws energy and coveted voter information... One of Trump’s most potent political assets is his ability to read a room, or a moment, often eschewing long-term planning for instantaneous reaction. But he was slow to come to grips with the threat posed by the coronavirus as it exploded in China, distracted by impeachment and unwilling to scare the markets by stirring panic or upsetting his trading partner in Beijing, Xi Jinping."

Once the people around him convinced him the pandemic was not a "hoax," as he kept calling it, he "believed that through his force of will and ability to dominate a news cycle, he could alleviate the crisis, taking to Twitter and the White House briefing room podium to dismiss the threat." In the meantime, he was losing valuable time to actually prepare for the worst. "[W]hile Trump deemed the media coverage of the virus 'a hoax' meant to create hysteria and tank his poll numbers, it is a harder sell to ask his supporters to dismiss media reports when they see people in their own communities getting sick, schools closing and local drugstores unable to keep hand sanitizer on the shelves."
Infighting erupted within the administration, as Trump blamed and then sidelined Azar, relegating the health secretary to a secondary role behind Vice President Mike Pence on the coronavirus task force. But while Trump empowered Pence and respected medical professionals to take the lead on briefings, he ignored his advisers’ advice to let the vice president be the public face of the administration’s response, according to the officials.

Unable to cede the spotlight, Trump spoke extemporaneously to reporters at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta on Friday, requiring the vice president, who addressed the media in Washington moments later, to correct the president’s misstatements about the availability of testing kits and the fate of a cruise ship filled with coronavirus patients.

It was only on Monday, as he was flying from Florida back to Washington, that the economic severity of the crisis hit home for Trump, according to three of the officials and advisers.

In one cabin on Air Force One, Matt Gaetz, a Florida GOP congressman who had accompanied Trump to a series of Orlando fundraisers, had isolated himself after learning he’d come into contact with someone infected by the virus. And on the TV in Trump’s aircraft office, Fox News was broadcasting dire graphics illustrating the single worst day for stock markets since the 2008 financial crisis.

By the time the plane touched down at Joint Base Andrews, Trump told aides he would change tactics and propose a broad economic stimulus to reassure investors. But the fate of his plan, which included a suspension of the payroll tax, remained unclear as the week went on and the markets’ roller coaster ride continued.

“I think that in many ways this has made Trump a wartime president,” said former campaign communications director Jason Miller. “This virus has no borders, doesn’t discern between allies and foes and attacked the nation’s health security and economic security. It is going to take continued bold action from the president.”

After surviving impeachment, Trump has in earnest remade his White House staff to focus on reelection, prioritizing loyalty over experience. Increasingly focused on his campaign, Trump pushed aides to continue scheduling massive rallies, even as his Democratic foes had begun canceling theirs.
Predictably, his European travel ban went over the a lead balloon. NY Times: "On both sides of the Atlantic on Thursday, the consequences of President Trump’s decision to ban most travel from Europe began to be felt economically, politically and socially. European Union leaders issued a scathing statement condemning the move even as many nations on the Continent moved to tighten their own restrictions on the movement of people. 'The coronavirus is a global crisis, not limited to any continent and it requires cooperation rather than unilateral action,' it said. 'The European Union disapproves of the fact that the U.S. decision to impose a travel ban was taken unilaterally and without consultation.'"

With Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau's wife in quarantine with coronavirus symptoms after attending a charity event with 12,000 people, Trudeau acknowledged that with hundreds of thousands of people crossing the border every day, the U.S. is 'a real potential vector of transmission.'"

The Times also reported that after spending a lot of time with Trump and Pence, Fábio Wajngarten, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s communications chief, a fellow fascist, has tested positive for coronavirus. Others who had been in close proximity with Wajngarten at Mar-A-Lago included Ivanka and Jared. Florida GOP Senator Rick Scott had met with Bolsonaro and is now in quarantine. Today Bolsonaro will get his own test results back and find out whether or not he's infected.




The chances of Pence and Trump not having coronavirus are very small. Prediction: Trump will be dead before summer. People will emerge from their quarantined homes to cheer in the streets.

Yesterday, Alan Grayson told me that he really hopes "that Trump gets tested soon, because the only way that he’s going to give a damn about this problem is if he’s sick himself. I hope that the next person who gets laid off and sent home because of COVID-19 is Donald Trump... We’re about to have 75,000 people laid off here (Orlando/Disneyworld), with no income and no savings. They will soon be roasting and eating their cats. Damn him.

Meanwhile everyone serious has started ignoring Trump when it comes to dealing with the pandemic. "As the toll of those afflicted by the virus continued to soar and financial markets from Tokyo to New York continued to swoon" wrote Mark Landler, "world leaders are finally starting to find their voices about the gravity of what is now officially a pandemic. Yet it remains less a choir than a cacophony-- a dissonant babble of politicians all struggling, in their own way, to cope with the manifold challenges posed by the virus, from its crushing burden on hospitals and health care workers to its economic devastation and rising death toll. The choir also lacks a conductor, a role played through most of the post-World War II era by the United States. President Trump has failed to work with other leaders to fashion a common response, preferring to promote his border wall over the scientific advice of his own medical experts."

Landler also noted that other political leaders, like Trump, with whom humanity would be better off without, are using the pandemic for their own ends. "The same denigration of science and urge to block outsiders has characterized leaders from China to Iran, as well as right-wing populists in Europe, which is sowing cynicism and leaving people uncertain of whom to believe. Far from trying to stamp out the virus, strongmen like President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia have seized on the upheaval it is causing as cover for steps to consolidate their power... The trouble is that, with few exceptions, their efforts have been hapless. In the United States, the delay in developing coronavirus test kits and the scarcity of tests have made it impossible for officials, even weeks after the first cases appeared in the country, to get a true picture of the scale of the outbreak."

Domestically, political leaders are also giving up on working with Trump to ameliorate the spread of the disease. Politico reporters Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan wrote that "For any other leader, the rapid turnaround on the recovery plan would be a herculean feat at best. But for Pelosi, successfully negotiating a multi-billion-dollar economic package with a hostile and often antagonistic Trump administration was just another day in the speaker’s suite. It’s also a reminder that for all Trump’s omnipresence on Twitter and cable TV, Pelosi remains the dominant figure on Capitol Hill when it comes time to actually getting something accomplished. 'She understands what has to be done, and will do so in a very limited time frame and scope while trying to be inclusive with a very diverse caucus that also has a lot of their own ideas on how to solve the problem,' said Rep. John Larson (D-CT). 'While there can be some consternation going forward, at the end of the day, she has the trust of the caucus.' ... The face of the U.S. response-- of course-- is Trump. And he announced plans for some executive action to help the public in a Wednesday night address, including on paid sick leave. But he’s also taken a sometimes-erratic approach to the outbreak, often undermining his own administration’s recommendations and repeating falsehoods about the coronavirus being 'very much under control' in the country... Pelosi also has enormous political leverage during this episode. By moving quickly, Pelosi has put pressure on the White House and GOP leaders to respond. She could put a bill on the floor and see if Republicans would vote against it, something top Democrats believe will never happen. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), a key Trump ally, said Tuesday his conference could end up backing the Democratic bill."




Something to think about that Felix Salmon shared on Axios: "The fate of countries around the world lies in a very few individual politicians' hands-- more so than at any other time in half a century or more... The spread of the novel coronavirus is similarly a function of decisive action by heads of state, or the lack thereof. Governments alone determine whether the number of new cases increases exponentially, or whether it is brought under control within days. The Chinese government, through inaction, allowed COVID-19 to grow to the degree that global infections were inevitable. Subsequent Chinese actions, however, were decisive and effective. South Korea has also been effective in combating the coronavirus and has managed to do so through 'openness and transparency' rather than lockdowns. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has locked down the entire country, imposing severe restrictions on travel and shuttering all stores except groceries and pharmacies. Donald Trump, by contrast, sent markets into a series of tailspins by talking about the virus as a political attack rather than as an epidemiological emergency. His plan for minimizing the domestic spread of COVID-19 is notable mainly for its nonexistence. ... In normal day-to-day life, someone with the novel coronavirus will infect more than 3 other individuals. That's a simple recipe for exponential growth."
Effective heads of state have shown that they have the ability to change individual behavior across their country so that the number gets reduced to less than 1.

Normally, the health of a country is a function of the strength of its economy. That correlation has now temporarily been upended. Politicians need to slow down economic activity to save their countries.
Trump has failed, utterly and undeniably. Financial Times writer Edward Luce: "On Wednesday night the global pandemic met US nationalism. It will not take long to see which comes off best. As Donald Trump was speaking, the Dow futures market nosedived. His Europe travel ban came just a few hours after the US stock market entered bear territory-- a fall of 20 per cent or more-- for the first time since the global financial crisis. It also followed the World Health Organization’s declaration of a global pandemic. Mr Trump’s address was meant to calm the waters. By the time he finished they were considerably rougher… It is unclear how Europe and other countries will respond to Mr Trump’s dramatic announcement. In an ideal situation, America’s president would have acknowledged that the pathogen knows no borders and has no political loyalties. It poses a common threat that requires a co-ordinated global response. That is not the way Mr Trump thinks. Public health officials say that millions of Americans will probably be infected. The official total now stands at 1,312. Mr Trump has never faced a crisis on anything like this scale-- and it is still in its early stages. His remedies so far are cause for deep concern. Who will he blame when they fail?"

This is part of a note I got from my financial advisor yesterday: "You actually did more than just lighten up. You are about 70% cash and fixed currently. I would leave the 30% in with the diversified fund managers we have. They are patient and will act accordingly to pick up things when they get really cheap. I agree the market has to fall more. There are stresses behind the scenes in private equity and other areas caused by this which are creating downward pressure as well. And of course there is a vacuum in leadership which is starting to rattle everyone…"

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