Friday, January 03, 2020

Bernie, Elizabeth And Big Tech

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I’ve always seen Elizabeth Warren as a future U.S. president-- one term (or two terms) as Bernie’s VP, two terms as president after that… 12 or 16 years of the fundamental transformational change Status Quo Joe, Bloomberg, Mayo Pete, the Democratic Party establishment and the GOP are so desperate to prevent. Meanwhile, she’s been acting as Bernie’s loyal wing-man in debates and out on the campaign trail. Or haven’t you noticed? And she concentrates on issues that have helped broaden the joint platform. Last April, Ken Rogoff, writing for The Guardian, reported on how Elizabeth has been going after Big Tech, the way progressive reformers once went after, for example, railroad monopolies.

“Displaying a degree of courage and clarity that is difficult to overstate,” wrote Rogoff, a former chief economist for the IMF and now a professor of economics and public policy at Harvard, “U.S. Senator and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren has taken on big tech, including Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple. Warren’s proposals amount to a total rethink of the United States’ exceptionally permissive merger and acquisition policy over the past four decades. Indeed, big tech is only the poster child for a significant increase in monopoly and oligopoly power across a broad swath of the American economy. Although the best approach is still far from clear, I could not agree more that something needs to done, especially when it comes to big tech’s ability to buy out potential competitors and use their platform dominance to move into other lines of business.”
Warren is courageous because big tech is big money for most leading Democratic candidates, particularly progressives, for whom California is a veritable campaign-financing ATM.

…Although the causal relationships are difficult to untangle, there are solid grounds for believing that the rise in monopoly power has played a role in exacerbating income inequality, weakening workers’ bargaining power, and slowing the rate of innovation. And, perhaps outside of China, it is a global problem, because U.S. tech monopolies have often achieved market dominance before local regulators and politicians know what has happened. The EU, in particular, has been trying to steer its own course on technology regulation. Recently, the UK commissioned an expert group, chaired by Barack Obama’s former chief economist (and now my colleague) Jason Furman, that produced a very useful report on approaches to the tech sector.

The debate about how to regulate the sector is eerily reminiscent of the debate over financial regulation in the early 2000s. Proponents of a light regulatory touch argued that finance was too complicated for regulators to keep up with innovation, and that derivatives trading allows banks to make wholesale changes to their risk profile in the blink of an eye. And the financial industry put its money where its mouth was, paying salaries so much higher than those in the public sector that any research assistant the Federal Reserve System trained to work on financial issues would be enticed with offers exceeding what their boss’s boss was earning.

There will be similar problems staffing tech regulatory offices and antitrust legal divisions if the push for tighter regulation gains traction. To succeed, political leaders need to be focused and determined, and not easily bought. One only has to recall the 2008 financial crisis and its painful aftermath to comprehend what can happen when a sector becomes too politically influential. And the U.S. and world economy are, if anything, even more vulnerable to big tech than to the financial sector, owing both to cyber aggression and vulnerabilities in social media that can pervert political debate.

Another parallel with the financial sector is the outsize role of U.S. regulators. As with US foreign policy, when they sneeze, the entire world can catch a cold. The 2008 financial crisis was sparked by vulnerabilities in the U.S. and the UK, but quickly went global. A U.S.-based cyber-crisis could easily do the same. This creates an “externality,” or global commons problem, because U.S. regulators allow risks to build up in the system without adequately considering international implications.

It is a problem that cannot be overcome without addressing fundamental questions about the role of the state, privacy, and how U.S. firms can compete globally against China, where the government is using domestic tech companies to collect data on its citizens at an exponential pace. And yet many would prefer to avoid them.



That’s why there has been fierce pushback against Warren for daring to suggest that even if many services seem to be provided for free, there might still be something wrong. There was the same kind of pushback from the financial sector fifteen years ago, and from the railroads back in the late 1800s. Writing in the March 1881 issue of The Atlantic, the progressive activist Henry Demarest Lloyd warned that:
Our treatment of ‘the railroad problem’ will show the quality and caliber of our political sense. It will go far in foreshadowing the future lines of our social and political growth. It may indicate whether the American democracy, like all the democratic experiments which have preceded it, is to become extinct because the people had not wit enough or virtue enough to make the common good supreme.
Lloyd’s words still ring true today. At this point, ideas for regulating big tech are just sketches, and of course more serious analysis is warranted. An open, informed discussion that is not squelched by lobbying dollars is a national imperative. The debate that Warren has joined is not about whether to establish socialism. It is about making capitalist competition fairer and, ultimately, stronger.

Goal ThermometerI knew just who to turn to for a solid perspective on this-- Riverside County historian and congressional candidate, Liam O'Mara. O'Mara is running on a cutting edge progressive platform against one of the most insidiously corrupt Republicans in Congress, Ken Calvert. The idea of Calvert ever taking on the establishment is... just unthinkable. He is the embodiment of congressional and personal corruption. O'Mara is the polar opposite. He told us last night that "Years before I got into college to become a history professor, I worked in IT as a network administrator and consultant. I spent the '90s fixing and installing systems for health insurance providers and aerospace companies. During those years, the free-software/open-source movement was starting to gain ground against the old titans of the industry. I saw first-hand the desperate efforts of Sun, Novell, and IBM to keep their software competitive against a fast-changing rival that could run circles around them. I also watched in helpless horror as another titan, Microsoft, managed to beat back that challenge by getting away with monopolistic practices and bribing Congress to achieve lighter regulation. In the decades since, I have often wondered how much better things might have been if government had, for example, been more willing to enforce fair competition in the marketplace. Many more people may have joined us in using things like Linux and OpenOffice, making our computers faster, easier to maintain, and vastly cheaper. That the tech. industry is complex does not make it different from all other big industries-- it needs to be regulated in order to prevent corruption and abuse of power by virtual monopolies. The right-wing dogma that business regulates itself is wrong on all the evidence, but large corporations do one thing very well-- they bribe thought-leaders and policy-makers into accepting whatever reality they sees fit. Those in politics need to stop taking their money and pay better attention to the facts instead.


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Monday, March 18, 2019

The Problem With Big Tech

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Fox White Nationalist Tucker Carlson's biggest worry about the slaughter last week in New Zealand-- by a confessed Trump supporter-- was worry that social media might curtail "free speech" by blocking further broadcasting of live gun massacres. Facebook can't seem to figure out how to prevent the live streaming of mass murders, another in a long list of problems for the tech giant, problems that are rankling the public and bringing the industry front and center politically.




Nancy Scola did a piece for Politico Sunday asking how the Democrats running for president turned against tech-- a big change for the party. Scola sees evidence that "Democrats running for president see big tech companies as enemies of the progressive agenda, rather than the allies they once were. Warren’s complaint last week that the social media giant 'has too much power' might have been a shock coming from a prominent Democrat just a few years ago, when Barack Obama’s public appearances with CEOs like Mark Zuckerberg and Twitter’s Jack Dorsey were typical for a party seeking to boost its appeal to tech-savvy young voters.
The hard turn against the technology industry from prominent Democrats represents a major cultural change in the party-- and a real threat to Silicon Valley’s political influence with liberals who may share tech workers' political sensibilities but are diverging from the industry on fundamental issues about privacy, business practices and taxes. For the industry, the danger is that the next president could espouse policies harmful to tech’s bottom line, from pushing for tougher antitrust action to restricting government contracts for companies unwilling to change their ways.

Klobuchar sounded the theme at the very start of her campaign, during the announcement speech in February where she stood in blowing snow in Minneapolis.

“For too long the big tech companies have been telling you ‘Don’t worry! We’ve got your back!’ while your identities are being stolen and your data is mined,” the Minnesota senator said.

Even Cory Booker, a Stanford grad with close ties to Silicon Valley, used a recent NPR interview to lump tech in with other powerful lobbies that need to be reined in. "We need to make sure that whether it's Silicon Valley or the pharma industry or the big ag, we need to hold people accountable for their actions," he said.

...Warren has taken the hardest line of all, calling for the federal government to shrink and split up industry giants like Amazon, Facebook, and Google. “To restore the balance of power in our democracy, to promote competition, and to ensure that the next generation of technology innovation is as vibrant as the last, it’s time to break up our biggest tech companies," she wrote in a blog post this month.

The Massachusetts senator later singled out Facebook after Politico reported that the social media company had taken down Warren campaign ads calling for its breakup. Facebook soon restored the ads, but Warren said the episode only underscored the need for "a social media marketplace that isn't dominated by a single censor."

Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz publicly took Warren’s side in that dispute-- a rare occurrence that underscores the bipartisan populist appeal of the tech backlash. A Morning Consult/Politico poll earlier this month found that near-identical pluralities of Democrats and Republicans agreed with the statement, "Technology companies have too much power and the federal government should step in to regulate more."
A few days ago, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich penned an article for Salon explaining why Warren is right about busting up big tech. It's all about monopolies. Did you know, for example, that:
Nearly 90% of all internet searches now go through Google.
Facebook and Google together account for 58% of all digital ads
93% of Americans get their news online-- and Facebook and Google is where many of them go for it
Amazon is now the first stop for a third of all American consumers seeking to buy anything.

Reich explains that "With such size comes the power to stifle innovation. Amazon won’t let any business that sells through it sell any item at a lower price anywhere else. It’s even using its control over book sales to give books published by Amazon priority over rival publishers. Google uses the world’s most widely used search engine to promote its own services and Google-generated content over those of competitors, like Yelp. Facebook’s purchases of WhatsApp and Instagram killed off two potential rivals."
Such size also confers political power to get whatever these companies and their top executives want.

Amazon-- the richest corporation in America-- paid nothing in federal taxes last year. Meanwhile, it’s holding an auction to extort billions from states and cities eager to have its second headquarters.

It also forced Seattle, it’s home headquarters, to back down on a plan to tax big corporations like itself to pay for homeless shelters for a growing population that can’t afford the sky-high rents caused in part by Amazon.

Facebook withheld evidence of Russian activity on its platform far longer than previously disclosed. When the news came to light, it employed a political opposition research firm to discredit critics.

Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, who holds the world’s speed record for falling from one of the most admired to the most reviled people on the planet, just unveiled a plan to “encrypt” personal information from all his platforms.

The new plan is likely to give Facebook even more comprehensive data about everyone. If you believe it will better guard privacy, you don’t remember Zuckerberg’s last seven promises to protect privacy.

Google forced the New America Foundation, an influential think tank it helped fund, to fire researchers who were urging antitrust officials to take on Google.

And it’s been quietly financed hundreds of university professors to write research papers justifying Google’s market dominance.

What to do? Some argue the tech mammoths should be regulated like utilities or common carriers, but this would put government into the impossible position of policing content and overseeing new products and services.

A better alternative is to break them up. That way, information would be distributed through a large number of independent channels without a centralized platform giving all content apparent legitimacy and extraordinary reach. And more startups could flourish.

Like the robber barons of the first Gilded Age, those of the second have amassed fortunes because of their monopolies-- fortunes that give them unparalleled leverage over politicians and the economy.

The combined wealth of Zuckerberg ($62.3 billion), Bezos ($131 billion), Brin ($49.8 billion) and Page ($50.8 billion) is larger than the combined wealth of the bottom half of the American population.

A wealth tax (also proposed by Warren) would help.

Some of the robber barons of the first Gilded Age were generous philanthropists, as are today’s. That didn’t excuse the damage they did to America.

Let’s be clear: Monopolies aren’t good for anyone except for the monopolists.

In this new Gilded Age, we need to respond to them as forcefully as we did the first time around. Warren’s ideas are a good start.

As we suggested earlier, a Bernie/Warren ticket would be a great idea to put up against Trump in 2020. One way Amazon, for example, has been able to exert influence over politicians is through substantial campaign contributions, substantial enough so that it's absolutely impossible to see them as anything other than bribes. Last year alone, Google and its executives poured $13,536,034 into electoral races (and that doesn't count the $27,400,000 they spent on lobbying in the last cycle). Amazon's biggest contribution-- by far-- went to the conservative-leaning With Honor Fund, which spent massively to elect Michael Waltz (R-FL), Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), Brian Mast (R-FL), Steve Watkins (R-KS), Donald Bacon (R-NE). They spent $1,744,822 on Waltz and $863,616 on Crenshaw, so we're not talking about nominal contributions here. The only Democrats who were elected with significant help from the PAC were Jared Golden (ME), Mikie Sherrill (Blue Dog-NJ) and Gil Cisneros (New Dem-CA). Amazon was their biggest contributor-- more than all other contributor combined-- and their second biggest was the Bezos Family Foundation ($2,004,324).

Amazon also gave significant money to the DCCC ($138,331), the DNC , the DSCC and the NRCC. As for individual campaigns, their dozen biggest contributions went to:
Beto O'Rourke (New Dem-TX)- $75,751
Kim Schrier (New Dem-WA)- $74,860
Maria Cantwell (D-WA)- $59,970
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)- $44,037
Lisa Brown (New Dem-WA)- $37,357
Jacky Rosen (New Dem-NV)- $35,828
Bob Casey (D-PA)- $33,615
Cory Gardner (R-CO)- $31,950
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)- $31,391
Suzan DelBene (New Dem)- $29,500
Doug Jones (D-AL)- $28,674
Kyrsten Sinema (Blue Dog-AZ)- $23,814
That's a list of mostly conservative candidates, Lisa Brown being the only exception. On top of that was the money that flowed from the company PAC, in House races, $533,500 to Republicans and $475,500 to Democrats. There were 12 House candidates they maxed out to ($10,000 each):
Mike Bishop (R-MI)
Gerry Connolly (New Dem-VA)
Suzan DelBene (New Dem-WA)
Jeff Denham (R-CA)
Will Hurd (R-TX)
Derek Kilmer (New Dem-WA)
Zoe Lofgren (D-CA)
Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Scott Perry (R-PA)
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)
Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Adam Smith (New Dem-WA)


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