Gavin Newsom Will Probably Win But Here's Why I'm Voting For Antonio Villaraigosa

Governor?

9 or 10 years ago, Gavin Newsom, Mayor or ex-Mayor of San Francisco, invited a gaggle of Los Angeles political bloggers to meet him in a rented conference room of a fancy West Hollywood hotel. I had the impression everyone was impressed besides me-- and even I was a little impressed. He was really smart and was able to speak way more intelligently than most politicians can on every single subject every blogger threw at him. If smarts alone was the only criterion to back a candidate, I might have gotten behind him instead of Jerry Brown. But it isn't... and I didn't. He had two traits that disqualified him. He's a corporate Democrat (which is enough of a disqualifier no matter how many LGBTQ couples whose marriages he presided over as mayor... of the gayest city in the world) and he can't be trusted and should find another line of work. Can't be trusted? He screwed his best friend's wife-- had an affair with her and though Gavin has a new wife now, his best friend and his wife broke up. I can't see trusting someone who does that.

And that his character defect is still around was just borne out again in his campaign. Yesterday, in a post Dorothy Reik wrote she helped break the news that Newsom was trying to help make sure the #2 slot in the jungle primary was filled by a Republican because he knows it will be much easier to beat a Republican in November. Why is that a big deal? If there are no Republicans on the top of the ticket running for governor (and for the Senate), it will discourage some Republicans from bothering to vote-- which could be a boon to Democrats running for the House and for the state legislature. But Newsom only thinks about Newsom, not for the greater good.

Ron Brownstein understands the dynamic and he dealt with it yesterday in a report for CNN, One of Trump's top California critics could help him hold the House. First off, I don't know what makes Newsom one of Trump's top critics in a state that includes Ted Lieu, Maxine Waters, Adam Schiff, Kevin de León, Eric Swalwell, Barbara Lee and even Nancy Pelosi. But Brownstein claims that "few Democrats anywhere present themselves as more inveterate opponents of Señor Trumpanzee. Gee, I never noticed.

And yet few Democrats anywhere are facing more pointed accusations than Newsom of pursuing a strategy that could help Trump achieve his highest political goal in 2018: maintaining Republican control of the US House.

The charge against Newsom, which his camp forcefully rejects, underscores how profoundly the dynamics of California's unusual top-two primary system distort the typical calculations for candidates and the two major parties.

...Newsom ran an ad earlier this month effectively bolstering the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox. By promoting Cox, Newsom reduced the odds that he would face another Democrat in November and increased his own chances of victory. But he faced complaints that he was threatening Democratic hopes of recapturing the US House because a Republican in the governor's race would give California GOP voters more reason to turn out this fall and thus benefit their candidates for the House.

...Though the state has run three previous elections under the top-two rule, this is the first contest that is fully pressure-testing the system. In 2014, the one previous governor's race conducted under these rules, incumbent Democrat Jerry Brown cruised to re-election. And in the past three elections, Democrats inexplicably [has Brownstein never put the words DCCC and incompetence together in his mind?] failed to mount serious bids against House Republicans in several districts that were trending away from the GOP.

...Most attention has focused on the Democratic dilemma in Orange County. The Democrats began this year with high hopes in the four seats that Clinton carried across that steadily-diversifying county. But they now face the real risk that Republicans will claim both of the top spots and shut out Democrats for November in three of them. In descending order of threat, Democrats are confronting that possibility in the seat held by Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and the districts being vacated by retiring Republicans Ed Royce and Darrell Issa. (Because there are no meaningful Republican challengers to GOP incumbents Mimi Walters in Orange County and Steve Knight north of Los Angeles, Democrats don't face that risk in those Clinton-won seats.)

In all three of the seats where Democrats face a potential shutout, Republicans have candidates with much stronger resumes in elected office, from former state Assembly member Young Kim and Orange County Board of Supervisors member Shawn Nelson in Royce's seat; to former State Assembly GOP Leader Scott Baugh, who is challenging Rohrabacher; to former Assembly member Diane Harkey and current member Rocky Chavez in the Issa seat. None of the leading Democrats contending for any of the seats hold elected office, or began the race with much name identification in their districts-- a remnant of the party's long-time failure to invest in building its support in Orange County. That's made it tougher for any one candidate to consolidate support.

This local failure has forced the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee into extraordinary exertions to avoid losing these seats to the GOP in June. The party committee has invested heavily in voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts to combat the traditionally low turnout of several key Democratic constituencies during the June primaries. It has successfully leaned on several lower-tier Democratic candidates to drop out, hoping to consolidate the Democratic vote.

Most dramatically, it has invested $3.5 million into an array of television and radio ads meant to lift a Democrat into the top two. That's included negative ads trying to weaken Republican candidates in each race (principally Baugh, Nelson and Chavez). More controversially, the DCCC has also tried to lift one Democrat from the field by running ads for Gil Cisneros, a lottery winner and philanthropist in the Royce seat, and Harley Rouda, an attorney and entrepreneur in the Rohrabacher district.

And yet even after all this work, Democrats are still biting their nails. The Democrats are especially on edge about the Rohrabacher seat, where the incumbent's weakness is leaving a large number of GOP-leaning votes available to Baugh.

"These are all within the margin of error, and that's what is so scary," said Democratic consultant Dave Jacobson, who is advising candidates in the Royce and Rohrabacher seats.

The maneuvering in the governor's race is adding to Democratic anxiety and uncertainty. It has raised the possibility that even if Democrats survive next week's challenge and place a candidate onto the general election ballot, the Republican odds of holding the Orange County anyway seats may be rising.

Newsom triggered the controversy earlier this month when he ran his ad criticizing Cox, an underfunded San Diego business executive who lost several races for office while living in Illinois, for being too close to Trump and too opposed to gun control.

That's the sort of message viewers might expect from Newsom, a liberal Democrat, in the general election. But airing during the primary, the ad, in effect, came with a big wink: by attacking Cox from the left, Newsom was actually bolstering his credentials with Republican voters and increasing the chances that Cox would finish second next week ahead of any Democrat in the race. Newsom reinforced the message last week when he launched separate attack ads targeting Democrats Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor, and state Treasurer John Chiang.

Villaraigosa and Cox are the two candidates with a realistic chance of finishing second to Newsom, who leads comfortably in all polls. And even some Villaraigosa supporters privately now give him little chance of overcoming Cox, who was also boosted among Republicans by an endorsement from Trump. (In recent polls, Cox has pulled away from a second Republican, Travis Allen, who has run to his right.)

With Republicans dwindling to about a quarter of the state's registered voters, Newsom would begin the general election as a prohibitive favorite against Cox.

But Newsom has frustrated Democrats who believe the party would be more likely to beat the vulnerable GOP House members if Republicans are shut out of the governor's race. That, the critics argue, would depress GOP turnout, partly because Republicans are already virtually certain to be excluded from the US Senate race, which will likely feature incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein against State Senate leader Kevin de Leon. Delaine Eastin, a liberal former state superintendent of instruction also seeking the gubernatorial nomination as a Democrat, surfaced this grumbling last week, when she tweeted: "It is clear that for all of @GavinNewsom's claims to oppose @realDonaldTrump-- he has put himself ahead of @TheDemocrats fight to take back Congress and win other down ballot races."

Many Republicans actually take the same view. John Thomas, a Republican consultant, says the impact on Republican turnout could be catastrophic for GOP House candidates if the party is excluded from both the governor and US Senate races. "Our models it would probably change turnout by three points and that might just be it," says Thomas, who is working with Republican candidates in Orange County. "Barring a black swan event in some of those Congressional seats, with a Democrat imploding, a three-point shift [in turnout], is probably untenable."

Newsom has said openly he'd prefer to oppose a Republican this fall. But his advisers forcefully rebut the notion that he's advancing his own interests over the party's.

I guess Newsom hasn't screwed their wives... yet. Besides, if something horrible comes out about Gavin between the primary and the general, Democratic voters might move to another Democrat in the general if they had that opportunity, but still wouldn't move to a Republican. And no one knows how much filth about Newsom is out there ready to be exposed more than Gavin Newsom does.

In California Voting Your Conscience Means Voting For Kevin de León! And Antonio Villraogosa-- Really!

by Dorothy Reik

In this crazy world of "top two" primaries, we Democrats who want to flip Republican congressional seats need to be strategic. We need to vote to be sure Democrats are the top two contenders in the statewide races for Governor and U.S. Senate. As I write this, Franklin Graham is revival-touring our state to turn out radical evangelicals to vote for Republicans "Can you imagine if your school boards were controlled by evangelical Christians?" he asked the pastors in Pasadena. "The gays and lesbians have their people run for politics and win," he said. "As Christians, we are just being stupid."

Gubernatorial frontrunner Gavin Newsom is GOTV texting Republican frontrunner John Cox supporters to make his own general election race easier. To hell with congressional and legislative races which will suffer with a Republican competing candidate at the top of the ticket! Fewer Republicans turn out if there are no Republicans at the top of the ticket. They deserve-- richly deserve-- this grotesque fate for cynically forcing the jungle primary on California.

Those who think voting their "conscience" means voting for one of the outlier candidates need to realize that anti-Semite Patrick Little could wind up on the ballot instead of Kevin de León who, as President Pro Tem of the California Senate, led our state in fighting Trump's policies with progressive legislation that kept immigrants safe, our air and water clean and-- if Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon would have cooperated-- would have brought Medicare for All to our state. Little says, "I propose a government that makes counter-semitism central to all aims of the state. A government:

1) Of a People, for that people, free from jews
2) That cannot revoke the right to bear arms, such that this people can remain free from jews
3) that forbids all immigration except of biological kin, where no person of jewish origin may live, vacation, or traverse

Is it voting your "conscience" to give Little a statewide platform to promote his vile hatred? Remember, you are NOT voting for who will be your Senator, you are voting for who will be on the November ballot! Not one of the other Democratic candidates-- besides Feinstein and de León-- has a chance to get in the top two.

Meanwhile in the Governor's race we have Gavin "to hell with Congress"  Newsom GOTV texting supporters of Trump-endorsed Republican John Cox to make his own general election race easier. Cox wants to end the sanctuary state status of California and take it back for white people. Hold your ears or the dog whistle could blow out your eardrum: President Trump Endorses John Cox: "California finally deserves a great Governor, one who understands borders, crime and lowering taxes. John Cox is the man-- he’ll be the best Governor you’ve ever had. I fully endorse John Cox for Governor and look forward to working with him to Make California Great Again!"

We have to face reality, neither Delaine Easton nor John Chiang can beat Cox-- Chiang is polling at 9% and Easton at 6%-- and make it into the top two! The vote here has to be for Villaraigosa!  Remember again- you are NOT voting for Governor-- you are just voting for who will be on the ballot! And Gavin is doing more than just texting: "Newsom figures he’ll have an easier time defeating Republican John Cox in November and is airing ads "attacking" Cox in ways that could help him gain GOP votes for one of the top-two spots in the June primary.

The top two primary system was designed to hurt Democrats by making them spend their money in the primaries. It did that and more. With Newsom determined to turn out the Republican vote he has made California's bid to lead in turning Congress blue even more difficult. The Cook Report runs it down race by race.

Eric Bauman, California Democratic Party Chair, has the last word on the top two primaries:

“From the outset, the Top Two Primary system was designed by its sponsors to bleed the Democratic Party. Before the vote to amend California’s Constitution, the Sacramento Bee recalculated the prior Primary Election and found that Prop 14 would result in 24 Dem on Dem races and 3 Rep on Rep races-- guess what we had in November 2016... you got it. They sold this as a tool to "moderate" who sat in Sacramento and DC. Instead it’s been a farce that has cost Democrats tens-of-millions of dollars. We are looking at how best to repeal or amend it, ASAP!

McCAIN CELEBRATES CINCO DE MAYO... UNCOMFORTABLY

Hola! Please vote for me, por favor

I don't know if Rahm Emanuel is taking Tom Tancredo (R-CO) and his boy Heath Shuler (D-NC) out for margaritas at Tortilla Coast after work today to celebrate the $23 billion anti-immigration bill they wrote. But if he does, we can be pretty certain they won't run into arch-bigot Rush Limbaugh, who just compared L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to a “shoe shine guy” or a “Secret Service agent." (Do Secret Service agents and shoe shine guys all look the same to Republican fat cats?)

Antonio is an old friend of mine. In 2000 when the ACLU honored me with their annual Bill of Rights Award, I asked Antonio to introduce me to the audience before my speech. He wasn't the mayor (or in any office) at the time. I asked him because he is brilliant and focused and committed to the same progressive ideals and values that motivate me. I knew his speech would inspire me-- and it did. If I had to guess between someone with Limbaugh's mind and someone with Antonio's mind which would wind up with a menial job, I'd bet on Limbaugh. As far as a Secret Service agent... frankly I don't know what Limbaugh was going on about there. The ones I've met have been what I'd call model citizens-- my old friend Brian, and two agents who helped me-- one when tenants of mine were paying their rent with counterfeit hundred dollars bills and one when a police horse stepped on me in front of Dubrow's on Kings Highway when I was a child and my mom took me to meet JFK.

Meanwhile, desperately trying to escape from the vicious racism and elitism of his country club party, McCain launched a campaign website in Spanish and put out a new ad en espanol today, Cinco de Mayo. And instead of spending the day with Frenchmen, McCain has announced he will be addressing the annual convention of the National Council of La Raza in San Diego on July 14 (Bastille Day). McCain: "On this day in 1862, a small group of Mexican troops overcame overwhelming force to win the Battle of Puebla. Today, we join together to remember the sacrifice that these Mexican patriots endured, as well as the struggles of all those around the world striving for freedom. We recognize as well the important friendship that exists between our country and Mexico, and celebrate the many contributions Mexican-Americans have made to our society, culture, security and economy.”

Obama had a message too: "[W]hile Mexico’s cultural traditions are an important part of who we are as Americans, the American dream is still out of reach for too many Latinos... [O]ur broken immigration system works for neither the immigrant families who are being torn apart nor the workers who are concerned about unfair competition, which is why we need to pass comprehensive immigration reform once and for all. So while I hope that all Americans are enjoying this Cinco de Mayo, I also hope that when the celebrations come to an end, we’ll take up the cause of coming together as Americans to solve our common challenges and put the American dream within reach for every family in this country."

McCain no longer backs his own immigration reform bill. Buckling under to xenophobes and extremists in his own party, he has backed away from the legislation he wrote in 2006, legislation meant "to reform immigration laws and allow illegals to apply for legal residency retroactive to their arrival. Conservatives around the nation criticized McCain for the bill, which they said was too lenient against lawbreakers. McCain has said since then that he learned the lesson that focusing on border security is primary." Today he petulantly groused that "the focus on illegal immigration during the Republican primary season has harmed his party’s image among Hispanics."

But then John W. McCain defines political opportunism and has always been a serial flip-flopper. I wonder if he and Cindy will deny Arianna Huffington's post today about how neither of them voted for Bush in 2000: "At a dinner party in Los Angeles not long after the 2000 election, I was talking to a man and his wife, both prominent Republicans. The conversation soon turned to the new president. 'I didn't vote for George Bush' the man confessed. 'I didn't either,' his wife added. Their names: John and Cindy McCain."

The fact that this man was so angry at what George Bush had done to him, and at what Bush represented for their party, that he did not even vote for him in 2000 shows just how far he has fallen since then in his hunger for the presidency. By abandoning his core principles and embracing Bush-- both literally and metaphorically-- he has morphed into an older and crankier version of the man he couldn't stomach voting for in 2000.

UPDATE: McCAIN CAUGHT LYING HIS ASS OFF AGAIN

I was horrified to read in the Washington Post this morning that John McCain, a despicable political hack who has had a long record of twisting the truth to squeeze it into his career trajectory, has called Arianna Huffington-- through an official spokesperson-- a liar. I know Arianna and there is one thing that is certain-- whether you agree with her opinions or not-- she is a highly honorable person and would never, under any circumstances, make a story like this up. McCain makes me want to vomit. There is only one question left that any media person should ask him from now until November-- will he agree to take a lie detector test about whether or not he told Arianna that he didn't vote for Bush.

McCain, in their smear of Arianna, called on voters to "consider the source." Arianna asks them to consider both sources.

My sentiments exactly -- because John McCain has a long history of issuing heartfelt denials of things that were actually true.

He denied ever talking with John Kerry about his leaving the GOP to be Kerry's '04 running mate -- then later admitted he had, insisting: "Everybody knows that I had a conversation."

He denied admitting that he didn't know much about economics, even though he'd said exactly that to the Wall Street Journal. And the Boston Globe. And the Baltimore Sun.

He denied ever having asked for a budget earmark for Arizona, even though he had. On the record.

He denied that he'd ever had a meeting with comely lobbyist Vicki Iseman and her client Lowell Paxon, even though he had. And had admitted it in a legal deposition.

And those are just the outright denials. He's also repeatedly tried to spin away statements he regretted making (see: 100-year war, Iraq was a war for oil, etc.).

So, yes, by all means, "consider the source."