The GOP Says It Wants To Win Back 5 New Jersey House Seats. OK, I Want To Get Back To My Stamina From When I Was 18-- Neither's Going To Happen

2020 is going to be a bad year for congressional Republicans. The Democrats may lose a few seats in very red districts where "accidental" freshmen have been disappointing Democratic voters by running up horrible records as Blue Dogs. I would imagine waste-of-seat-holders like Joe Cunningham (SC), Anthony Brindisi (NY), Kendra Horn (Oklahoma)... perhaps Xochitl Torres Small (NM), Abigail Spanberger (VA) and Ben McAdams (UT). But these aren't just terrible members who betrayed their voters, they are all in very red districts:

• McAdams- R+13
• Cunningham- R+10
• Horn- R+10
• Torres Small- R+6
• Brindisi- R+6
• Spanberger- R+6

These are districts where Democrats lose if they can't motivate their base, including left-leaning independents. This half dozen slugs have done the exact opposite, apparently living in a Cheri Bustos/Steny Hoyer induced dream world where Republicans vote for conservative Democrats in big enough numbers to make up for disappointed progressive voters.

But House Democrats are better off without these 6 shitheads and they will pick up far more Republican seats to more than make up for the losses. We're looking at another strong anti-red wave forming up. I had to laugh yesterday when I saw a post at The Hill by Naomi Jagoda, Republicans plot comeback in New Jersey. In a normal year, the GOP plans could work, but not with Trump on the top of the ticket. I acknowledge that the DCCC made sure the New Jersey delegation would be dominated by some exceptionally bad faux-Democrats. But the districts are unlikely to yield GOP wins in 2020, especially with the Republicans running against banning the sales of assault weapons, for example.

Jagoda pointed out that Republicans lost 4 seats last year, and one the cycle before, and have only one Republican in the Jersey delegation left. "In 2020," she reported, "the GOP thinks it has a decent chance of winning back three of those seats-- if things break the right way. But it won't be easy, and Democrats are optimistic that they’ll hold all of the seats." The Democrats are correct. First consider the districts themselves, regardless of how weak and unattractive the incumbents are. The final number after the PVI was Trump's percentage in 2016:

• NJ-02 (Jeff Van Drew)- R+1 (50.6%)
• NJ-03 (Andy Kim)- R+2 (51.4%)
• NJ-05 (Josh Gottheimer)- R+3 (48.8%)
• NJ-07 (Tom Malinowski)- R+3 (47.5%)
• NJ-11 (Mikie Sherrill)- R+3 (48.8%)

Those are all seats that will be in major jeopardy in 2022, but not next year.

“I think the Democratic incumbents are at least slightly favored in all four of the districts that flipped in 2018, but Republicans have a chance in all of them,” said John Weingart, associate director of Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University who has worked in New Jersey state government during both Democratic and Republican administrations.

New Jersey has long voted for Democrats for president and senator, but the state has typically been more mixed in House and state-level races.

However, Republicans have fared poorly in recent congressional elections. While the GOP held six of the state’s 12 House seats before the 2016 elections, they now only hold one of them.

The remaining Republican lawmaker, Rep. Chris Smith, has taken moderate stances, such as voting for legislation to raise the minimum wage and co-sponsoring legislation with Democrats aimed at preventing gun violence.

...The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) lists all five New Jersey districts that flipped in 2016 and 2018 as targets. A GOP aide with knowledge of Republicans’ 2020 strategy said that the state’s 2nd, 3rd and 7th Districts are good pickup opportunities.

Republicans plan to link the incumbent Democrats to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and to freshman progressive star Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to argue that Congressional Democrats have become too liberal. And they hope that a presidential election year will boost Republican turnout, helping them win over the districts that Trump carried in 2016, though the president remains largely unpopular in the state.

Democrats don't plan to make it easy. A national Democratic strategist said that some of the New Jersey races could be tough but that the incumbents are focused on local issues, such as an unpopular cap on the state and local tax deduction in Trump's tax law, or advancing the Gateway Project to build a new tunnel between New York and New Jersey.

The New Jersey race that is thought to be most competitive is the 3rd district in the southern part of the state, which is currently represented by freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, a former State Department official who beat two-term Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) last year.

The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race as a "toss-up."

For Democrats, “the third district will be the hardest to hold onto,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Trump carried the district by about six points in 2016, even as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton prevailed over Trump by nearly 15 points in the state.

No Republican has formally entered the race yet, though Republicans are excited that former Burlington County elected official Kate Gibbs is reportedly considering running.

Kim has been focused on meeting with his constituents. By the end of August, he will have held 11 town halls in his district since taking office.

“Everywhere I go, the people of this district know what’s at stake next year and they’re ready to fight for a government that works for them,” Kim said in a statement to The Hill. "I’m going to keep working to put my community first.”

Kim is the weakest of the 5 incumbents and comes across as a political coward, afraid to get behind issues that should be easy in a district that just sent him to Congress. For example, he is one of just 35 Democrats refusing to co-sponsor the assault weapons ban-- a deadly mistake in a district that is 94.4% suburban. Overly cautious, Kim has turned out to be far more conservative than the district. If the Republicans manage to win one seat-- which is unlikely-- it will be his. The only other Jersey Dem refusing to sign the assault weapons ban in long-time NRA-ally, Jeff van Drew, the single most right-wing Democrat in the House. But even he's probably safe this cycle.

The 2nd District, currently held by Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D), and the 7th District, held by Rep. Tom Malinowski (D), are also seen as potential pick-up opportunities. These races are rated as leaning Democratic by both Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

The 2nd District, at the southern tip of the state, is more blue-collar than some of the other districts in New Jersey, and Trump carried the district in 2016 by 4.6 points.

Several Republicans have announced their candidacies for the seat, including businessman David Richter, defense contractor program manager Brian Fitzherbert, and former Trump administration Social Security official Bob Patterson.

Republicans plan to argue that Van Drew is too liberal for the district, which voted twice for former President Obama but had long been held by GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo until he retired in early 2019.

“With a well-run campaign, it’s a very winnable race,” said Ethan Zorfas, a general consultant for the Fitzherbert campaign.

Chris Russell, a consultant with the Richter campaign, said “there’s a lot of history of recent Republican success” in the district and Van Drew’s success in 2018 was “the outlier, not the rule.”

Van Drew, who fashions himself as a moderate, said he feels positive about his chances of winning reelection.

“I feel good. The reason that I do is partially because I try to be, and I believe I am, an independent thinker,” he told The Hill in an interview. “I’ve been fortunate that I have support cross party, Democrats, Republicans and independents.”

Political analysts said that Van Drew’s profile as a moderate, as well as the fact that he’s well-known in the district from his previous tenure as a state senator, pose challenges for Republicans.

“He has been around so long in that part of the state that he really has his own following,” Murray said.

The 7th District, represented by Malinowski, is one of the wealthiest and most-highly educated districts in the country and includes some suburbs of New York City. Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the district in the 2016 presidential election.

Republicans think they have a good shot at winning back the 7th District because of their confidence in one of the candidates vying for the GOP nomination in the race, Tom Kean.

Kean is the minority leader of the state senate and son of a popular former governor. The NRCC on Friday placed him in its Young Guns program that mentors and supports candidates.

“[Kean] has a recognized brand in the district,” said Harrison Nealy, a consultant with Kean's campaign.

Republicans also see the race as attractive because they view Malinowski as too liberal for the district. Malinowski, unlike many other freshmen lawmakers in competitive districts, has come out in support of an impeachment inquiry for Trump.

But political analysts warn that Trump is unpopular in the district, which is emblematic of the type of affluent, suburban seat where Republicans especially struggled last year.

Democrats, meanwhile, argue that Malinowski has been focused on issues of importance to his constituents.

"Tom Malinowski is one of Congress' most vocal advocates for the Gateway Tunnel and is a proven fighter for common sense gun safety legislation,” a source close to the incumbent's campaign said. “He strives everyday to make decisions based on principle not politics and is focused solely on being available and responsive to the needs of his constituents."

The NRCC has also named New Jersey’s 5th and 11th Districts as targets, but those races are viewed as less likely to be competitive. Cook rates both as “likely Democratic,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball views them as safe for Democrats.

Both of these districts are located in the New York suburbs and are represented by Democrats who are viewed as moderates and adept fundraisers.

No Republican is currently challenging freshman Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) in the 11th District. But several Republicans have announced that they are running in the 5th District, represented by two-term Rep. Josh Gottheimer, who also faces a Democratic challenger.

“Since the day I decided to run for Congress, I’ve been relentlessly focused on making people’s lives better in New Jersey and across the country,” Sherrill said in a statement to The Hill. “I’m prioritizing issues that will secure our future: getting rid of the SALT deduction cap, lowering healthcare costs, and improving our infrastructure.”

The Republicans, foolishly, are campaigning against these generally conservative Democrats by calling them all socialists. It's especially hilarious in Van Drew's case, since his voting record is to the right of several Republicans, including John Katko (R-NY), Tom Massie (R-KY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA). The DCCC is incompetent and lame beyond belief. The NRCC is at least as big a joke.

More Centrists-- The Arena Has Nothing To Offer

Anti-ideology advocate Jason Kander had a cool video... and lost

I've talked with Andy Kim a few times on the phone. A little straight laced for me but Andy is a former Obama White House national security official who coordinated the fight against ISIS inside the National Security Council. Before that, he worked at the Pentagon, the State Department and in Afghanistan as a strategic adviser to General David Petraeus. Andy was a Rhodes Scholar and received a Doctorate in International Relations from Oxford after going to the University of Chicago. Today he's running for the South Jersey congressional seat (NJ-03, stretching right across the state from the suburbs east of Philly through the Pine Barrens to Toms River) held by one of the devious architects of TrumpCare, reactionary multimillionaire Tom MacArthur. He seems like a very worthwhile candidate who would probably make a good member of Congress.

And I've talk with Lillian Salerno a few times as well. She's running for a north Dallas-metro congressional seat (TX-32) held by cartoon arch-villain Pete Sessions. Before running for office, Obama had appointed her deputy undersecretary of rural development for the Department of Agriculture. She's a widely respected anti-trust expert and her campaign is pure Texas populism. If she wins her race, expect her to be a real player in crucial and much-needed reforms.

A couple nights ago, I had dinner with another candidate, Haley Stevens, the progressive Democrat running for the open MI-11 seat (Oakland and Wayne counties northwest of Detroit and Dearborn). She was the highly regarded chief of staff for the Obama administration’s auto bailout and is a universally  respected expert on industrial policy. Haley is another excellent candidate who, if elected will be a real upgrade in the House of Representatives and a boon for the folks living in Birmingham, Troy and the suburbs and small towns west of Detroit.

All three have a couple things in common-- they are successful Obama Administration alums with real expertise in their fields. All three are likely to be endorsed this cycle by Blue America, not because the worked in the Obama Administration per se, but because they are smart progressive candidates who are offering worthwhile experience, passion, courageousness and integrity to the people of their districts. About a week ago, writing for the New Republic Ben Austen reported on a new group, The Arena, that is pushing Obama Administration officials for Congress, as if they are another-- albeit more exclusive, identity group. The Arena was founded by Ravi Gupta, who worked in the Obama Administration for a short time and then went to work in the charter school industry. Austen defines the group as one in which "the populist surge that elected Trump is not exactly welcoming to the political insiders and coastal elites who founded the Arena. The group, which plans to run candidates in red and blue districts across the country next year, has adopted a deeply pragmatic approach. It avoids specific positions on policies, encouraging each candidate to fashion his or her own message, even on core liberal issues like health care and government oversight... A candidate in Wisconsin might advocate universal health care and a $15 minimum wage; an office-seeker in Georgia, meanwhile, might eschew gun control and abortion rights... [T]he Arena focuses on process, not policy."

The danger of this district-by-district relativism, of course, is that the party offers up a thousand messengers but no message. Democrats don’t have a “vision or story they want to paint of what is wrong with America today,” Matthew Yglesias observed recently in Vox, and no model for “what is the better country they want to build for the future.” Gupta, like many establishment Democrats, believes that the core principles of economic equality and social justice are enough to unite the party, especially at a time when Republicans are intent on slashing health care and aid to working families. The Arena, in essence, embodies the debate at the heart of the widespread resistance to Trump: Can Democrats regain power over the long term without articulating a clear and compelling party agenda? And can a group of young Obama acolytes bend the moral arc of the universe toward justice, as their candidate so often proclaimed, without agreeing on what justice looks like?

...Inside the vote center, Yvonne Cash, a UAW representative, laments the outcome of the election in the Rust Belt, where Trump won a majority of the white electorate. “The Republicans took our message and flipped it,” she says. “They said they were for the working class, and that the Democrats are only educated, college elites.” The young lawyers and techies from the Arena listen intently. One of them asks Cash how, as candidates, they can connect with organized labor.

Cash pauses for a few beats. “I’m going to be very real,” she says. “The first question we ask when we screen a candidate is: What kind of car do you drive?”

It’s an awkward if revealing moment. Cash is suggesting that Democratic candidates must adhere to the “buy American” message that the UAW has been promoting ever since Japanese imports invaded the U.S. auto market in the 1980s. If you want to get working-class voters out to the polls, she implies, you have to drive a Ford F-150. But that kind of “old economy” thinking runs the risk of reinforcing the false promises that Trump made about restoring a bygone industrial age. And it has little to do with the “new economy” challenges facing the Arena’s young millennial candidates, many of whom don’t even own a car. They use Lyft and Uber.

...[Arena-think] glosses over the knotty questions that Democrats are wrestling with right now: What specifically do they believe? And what policy positions in their candidates are they willing to forgive to win races next year and beyond? Gupta, for his part, talks excitedly to me about Bill Clinton on the campaign trail in 1992 doing just what Kander extols. “He was Yale Law and a Rhodes scholar,” Gupta says, “and he crushed it on blue-collar issues.” I point out that while Clinton was coming across to working-class voters as a folksy guy who felt their pain, he and the New Democrats were shredding social welfare and putting millions of black Americans behind bars. Gupta agrees-- to an extent. He says there’s nothing worse than the “Ivy-educated elite who wears flannel,” and he has turned away candidates seeking his help who seemed inauthentic. But he also argues that Bill Clinton gets a bad rap. “For people who care who’s on the Supreme Court and about our tax policy,” he says, “Clinton did win back the White House after three terms of Republican rule.” It’s an undisputedly pragmatic position, but one that is unlikely to inspire the millions of disaffected Democrats who rejected Clintonism in favor of Trump and Sanders during last year’s election.

We came across a relatively worthless Arena candidate, Lauren Underwood, in IL-14, where 6 Democrats are running to take on centrist Republican Randy Hultgren. She worked for Obama's Department of Health and Human Services. At her core Underwood probably has more in common with Republican Hultgren than with the energy of the post-2016 Democratic Party. The DCCC absolutely loves her; she's just like they are. Austen: "Underwood is, in many ways, the picture of a candidate running on the virtues of Obama: She’s young, African American, reared in his administration-- and, as she tells me with mock apology, “not the most liberal Democrat.” She is fine with Elizabeth Warren, but does not agree with Sanders and his followers on many issues, including the legalization of marijuana and the aversion to U.S. intervention in world conflicts. She says she has no time for activist groups like Brand New Congress, which wants to mount primary challenges to Democratic incumbents it deems insufficiently progressive." If the DCCC manages to slip her into the nomination, it will take a wave higher than the Sears Tower for her to beat Hultgren in an R+5 district Obama lost to Romney and in which Trump beat Hillary 48.7% to 44.8%. Bernie beat Hillary in IL-14 and on primary day several of the key counties didn't just see Bernie outpolling Clinton, but outpolling Trump as well. Kane is the biggest county I'm the district. Bernie took 31,085 votes to Hillary's 24,063. Trump won 21,605 votes. Same dynamic in Kendall and Lake counties. But Underwood thinks she's in touch with the voters in the district. Maybe she is, but not the Democratic voters.

To Gupta, Underwood and the other political hopefuls at the summit embody the way forward for Democrats: young, experienced candidates able to articulate their passion and connect with voters. “If we’re successful in the 2018 race,” he says, “the Arena-backed candidates will all be the clearest examples of telling an authentic story in the clearest, most compelling way.” But one Democrat’s authenticity is another Democrat’s selling out. Many in the party warn that unless candidates address the needs of working-class voters, Democrats will continue to lose ground to Republicans at every level of government. “We don’t just need more people running for office,” says Becky Bond, who served as a senior adviser in the Sanders campaign. “We need credible candidates who run on a bold platform that will significantly improve people’s lives if elected. We need to give the voters who the Democrats have consistently taken for granted or written off a reason to turn out and vote. Medicare for all, free college tuition, an end to the cash bail system. Resistance groups should encourage and support candidates who step up to run on these ideas.”

Underwood rejects that kind of thinking as out of touch for her district. She is content to shape her own message, even if it diverges from the prevailing upsurge of populist sentiment, tailoring it to what she sees as the concerns of her constituents. She’s eager to start talking to voters at supermarkets and churches in McHenry County, the reddest part of her district, which Trump won by eight points. She won’t be highlighting some traditional Democratic issues, like gun control, which she considers a no-win proposition there. And she doesn’t think it prudent to lead with calls for racial equity. She looks me over, considering how freely she should express her views on the world as it is and the world as it should be. “I am running in reality,” she says.

...It is not until the very last panel that I hear the name Bernie Sanders spoken aloud at the summit. The conference room is packed for “The Millennial Generation and the Future of American Democracy,” and I stand in the back as a former county financial official from Detroit encourages people to do their stint in local government: “The best experience of my life,” he says. A national political consultant talks about the need to rebrand politics so it’s cool for young people. The head of a creative studio that does campaign videos-- most recently for Randy Bryce, the union ironworker challenging Paul Ryan in Wisconsin-- argues that millennials aren’t being given the right incentives to invest in politics. A city councilman from Cincinnati chastises Democrats for ceding the economic argument to Trump, who spoke about trade, jobs, and industry only in fanciful generalities.

Suddenly, an African American web developer from Brooklyn raises his hand to interject. More millennials voted for Sanders, he points out, than for Clinton and Trump combined. What’s more, the Labour Party in the United Kingdom ran a far-left campaign earlier that month and reclaimed seats in Parliament. “They have a platform that is unapologetically progressive,” the man continues. “They say, ‘We’re going to take care of regular people.’ We don’t have that message.”

“We don’t see a platform that goes with our beliefs,” someone else interrupts.

A white woman cuts in, “We want to feel something.”

“The party assumes that most progressives are Democrats,” another woman shouts. “But most millennials don’t see themselves in the party platform. So they don’t feel an obligation to show up for the party. I’ve worked in politics ever since I was a teenager, but I’m not a party loyalist.”

It’s as though a quarter-century of frustration with the Democratic Party has boiled over in the space of a minute. The moderator for the panel is Milia Fisher, a former Hillary Clinton staffer in her twenties who recently launched the Defiant Network, a grassroots group dedicated to creating a “powerful crowdsourced vision to save our democracy.” She asks how many people in the room identify strongly with the Democratic Party. Fewer than half raise a hand.

It’s hardly a rousing vote of confidence. If Democrats aren’t giving their most energized members a clear and inspiring sense of why the party matters, then what hope do they have of winning back the Rust Belt or middle America, or turning red states blue? In July, the party establishment unveiled a modest agenda called “A Better Deal,” calling for a $15 minimum wage and regulations to cut prescription drug costs, but it did little to change minds that the Democrats stood for more than being anti-Trump.

Gupta is a joke-- a very, very bad joke. He actually tells Austen why he's a Democrat-- a slog so sick that even the DCCC-- which came up with it-- eventually rejected it. "I’m a registered Democrat. I mean it’s, like, better than the other guys."

His candidates are mostly centrist garbage who are headed towards defeat. Elissa Slotkin (MI-08) and Chrissy Houlahan (PA-06) were both endorsed by the Wall Street-owned and operated New Dems. Dan McCready (NC-09) is even worse-- a fucking Blue Dog. Josh Harder (CA-10) is running in one of the most winnable GOP-hed seats in the country. The PVI went from R+1 in 2015 to even this year. Obama won the district twice and Hillary beat Trump 48.5% to 45.5%. It's a minority majority district but the DCCC is determined to run Harder, a wealthy venture capitalist from San Francisco running a centrist platform.

TrumpCare 3.0-- The Senate Version Is Even Worse!

Everyone thought the Senate would get their hands on the really radical, really destructive-- and really hated-- House Republican “healthcare” bill, TrumpCare, crafted by Paul Ryan and Tom Price and bastardized by Freedom Caucus chairman Mark Meadows and rogue Tuesday Group opportunist Tom MacArthur, and turn it into something more palatable and more mainstream. Why did anyone think that-- with people like Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn and Ted Cruz driving the show? Instead, if the Washington Post’s leaked report of what the Senate Republicans have come up with is to be believed, the Senate version is even worse than the House version. Not better, worse!

If this Frankenstein’s monster of a bill passes, say goodbye to Planned Parenthood and say goodbye to Medicaid-- and say goodbye to healthcare for millions and millions of American families who have coverage now.

The bill largely mirrors the House measure that narrowly passed last month but with some significant changes aimed at pleasing moderates. While the House legislation tied federal insurance subsidies to age, the Senate bill would link them to income, as the ACA does. The Senate proposal cuts off Medicaid expansion more gradually than the House bill, but would enact deeper long-term cuts to the health-care program for low-income Americans. It also removes language restricting federally subsidized health plans from covering abortions, which may have run afoul of complex budget rules.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) intends to present the draft to wary GOP senators at a meeting Thursday morning. McConnell has vowed to hold a vote before senators go home for the July 4 recess, but he is still seeking the 50 votes necessary to pass the major legislation under arcane budget rules. A handful of senators, from conservatives to moderates, are by no means persuaded that they can vote for the emerging measure.

Aides stress that the GOP plan is likely to undergo more changes to garner the 50 votes Republicans need to pass it. Moderate senators are concerned about cutting off coverage too quickly for those who gained it under the ACA, also known as Obamacare, while conservatives don’t want to leave big parts of the ACA in place.

As a nod to conservatives, the Senate bill would give states more leeway in opting out of the ACA’s insurance regulations through expanding the use of so-called “1332” waivers already embedded within the law, according to the draft proposal. States could use the waivers to make federal subsidies available even off the marketplaces-- but they couldn’t go so far as to lift ACA protections for patients with preexisting conditions.

…[M]oderates are likely to be turned off by how the bill cuts Medicaid more deeply than the House version. But the biggest cuts wouldn’t take effect for seven years, a time frame that could be more politically palatable for members like Sens. Rob Portman (R-OH) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV).

Under the Senate draft, federal Medicaid spending would remain as is for three years. Then in 2021 it would be transformed from an open-ended entitlement to a system based on per capita enrollment. Starting in 2025, the measure would tie federal spending on the program to an even slower growth index, which in turn could prompt states to reduce the size of their Medicaid programs.

In a move that is likely to please conservatives, the draft also proposes repealing all of the ACA taxes except for its so-called “Cadillac tax” on high-cost health plans in language similar to the House version. Senators had previously toyed with the idea of keeping some of the ACA’s taxes.

Andy Kim, a national security expert who worked in the Obama White House and is now running for the south Jersey congressional seat held by Tom MacArthur, one of the TrumpCare architects, told me this morning that "Senate Republicans are taking the baton from Tom MacArthur and the House by secretly working in back room deals that prevent the American people from knowing the impact on their health care and their lives. The people deserve better." David Gill, an emergency care physician in Illinois, is running for the seat held by Ryan rubber stamp Rodney Davis. He’s on the same page as Kim. "My opponent in the upcoming 2018 election, Rodney Davis, played a pivotal role in the development of TrumpCare, serving as an assistant to the whip in the U.S. House to help garner support for its passage, and also frequently appearing as an apologist for the bill on TV news programs. Accordingly, Mr. Davis bears full responsibility for the overwhelming pain and suffering that will be wrought upon tens of millions of Americans by the passage of TrumpCare. As an advocate of single-payer as a member of Physicians for a National Health Program for the past 25 years, I am essentially the antithesis of Mr. Davis: I recognize the many benefits in guaranteeing all necessary coverage to all Americans, and I look forward to leading the charge towards single payer once I get to Washington. It is said that it is darkest before the dawn, and I have little doubt that passage of this atrocious Republican healthcare bill will serve to ultimately open the door wide to single-payer; Americans will be looking for a solution to their healthcare woes, and the time will finally be ripe for the type of single-payer program that should have been instituted decades ago."

And Randy Bryce, the newest Blue America endorsee, is clear how he feels about the Senate “healthcare” bill that leaked as well. “What is it going to take,” he asked, “to get people who are supposed to ‘represent’ us to actually listen to us? How can anyone claim to make decisions on our behalf when they pull garbage like this? America has always been about taking care of each other-- not taking away from each other! I’ve had enough of us working harder but having less to show for it. Not even the people who are supposed to vote on this bill know what is in it. That’s no way to ‘represent.’ Please— call your electeds-- ALL of them-- and demand that they do the right thing. Make it crystal clear that you vote. Then keep your promise and vote. Don’t forget to take your neighbors-- this is for them too. We still have some power-- use it before it’s gone.”


UPDATE

Matt Coffay is up against the godfather-- or co-godfather (with Ryan and Price)-- of TrumpCare, Freedom Caucus chairman Mark Meadows, one of the most dangerous extremists in Congress. Matt, a former Bernie organizer in western North Carolina offers voters in NC-11 a really clear choice for themselves and their families. "My opponent, Mark Meadows, negotiated the worst components of the House version of this bill. He's responsible for the loopholes that will allow insurance companies to price people out of care because of pre-existing conditions. It's largely because of his insistence that 23 million people will lose health coverage. As if that weren't enough, he's reportedly been in talks with the Senate to ‘negotiate’ their version of the bill, and is now calling for a cancellation of August recess so that he and the Freedom Caucus can ram the AHCA back through the House (or through committee) rather than returning to his district to hold a town hall. When I'm in the House, one of my first acts as a member of Congress will be to co-sponsor HR 676, the Medicare for All bill introduced by Rep. Conyers. Every person in this country deserves health care, and I won't stand idly by while the people of Western North Carolina-- and people all across this country-- are forced to suffer so that a handful of billionaires can get a tax break."

Ted Lieu (D-CA), who has been taking a leading role in the House on issues where a backbone is required, eviscerated McConnell’s miserable excuse for healthcare legislation. "Born from the most cynical kind of politics and raised in total secrecy, the Senate Republican version of Obamacare repeal offers very little in terms of health or care for hardworking American families. The Senate version tinkers with the margins of the heartless House GOP version of repeal but make no mistake, this new legislation still would deny health security to millions of Americans, while unconscionably making even deeper long-term cuts to Medicaid-- all in the name of giving those most fortunate Americans a gargantuan tax cut that they don't need and many don't want. The Senate Republican plan is not bold leadership with 'heart,' it's a cowardly and complete abrogation of the solemn responsibility to guarantee health security for each and every American."

Another Candidate Announcement-- Andy Kim vs Tom MacArthur In New Jersey

Yesterday Randy Bryce, the woke iron worker, union and veterans activist, former Bernie delegate (and Hillary elector) announced his candidacy for the seat Paul Ryan holds in southeast Wisconsin. We dedicated the whole day to it; it’s that important. We were unable to comment on two other new candidates though-- one, literally the worst possible Nebraska “Democrat” you could ever conjure up and the other, a great first time candidate is New Jersey. The first is an old reject, conservative former Republican legislator, Brad Ashford, who joined the Blue Dogs, served one term in Congress, supported the GOP agenda-- he was even worse than Kyrsten Sinema-- and then lost his reelection when progressives refused to turn out for him at the polls. Ashford is the only member of Congress I’ve ever referred to as a “piece of shit.” He voted more frequently against progressive goals in the House than any other Democrat, if you want to call him a Democrat. The DCCC, which does want to call him a Democrat, just could not wait to try to get him back into Congress. He's exactly what they want in a candidate. I don’t know anything about the other Democrat in the race, Kara Eastman, but she couldn’t possibly be as bad as Ashford. The Omaha World-Herald pointed out that Ashford was “one of the House members most likely to cross the aisle on major votes [which] bolstered his credentials as a moderate but routinely prompted sharply worded denunciations from rank-and-file Nebraska Democrats on social media.” They got two things wrong: 1- he was the member most likely to cross the aisle and 2- that bolstered his credentials as a conservative, not as a moderate.

The other race that was announced Monday, the one we’re more interested in, is for the South Jersey seat occupied by one of the devious architects of TrumpCare 2.0, reactionary multimillionaire Tom MacArthur. The Democrat running is Andy Kim, a former Obama White House national security official who coordinated the fight against ISIS inside the National Security Council, after working at the Pentagon, the State Department and in Afghanistan as a strategic adviser to General David Petraeus. Andy was a Rhodes Scholar and received a Doctorate in International Relations from Oxford after going to the University of Chicago. Andy, his wife, Kammy Lai and their 21 month old son, Austin, live in Marlton, just down the road from the school where Andy attended kindergarten.

In a statement, he told NJ-03 voters that he’s been traveling around the 2 counties-- Ocean and Burlington-- that make up the divergent district and speaking with people from the suburbs Northeast of Philly, through Shamong, Lacey and Stafford townships and up to Toms River and Brick, and that he sees “a groundswell of energy I’ve never seen before. People want change. They want leaders to take the time to listen, and build a system that puts people first. People in the Jersey Third have told me that they are scared about their futures. They worry about getting good paying jobs, having affordable healthcare, and ensuring their family’s safety.” He continued that he’s “running for Congress because we can no longer take democracy for granted, the people's voice needs to be heard. I am stepping up because no one can assume that someone else will fight on our behalf. I have spent my life serving my country. I will be honored to serve as the next Congressman from the Jersey Third.”

Last month, I watched Representative Tom MacArthur rush a vote on a dire healthcare bill without letting the American people understand the consequences. Under Trumpcare, tens of thousands of people in our congressional district will lose their healthcare.

Nobody voted to send a representative to Congress to gut healthcare. I’m running for Congress to work on solutions, and fix problems, not on gutting healthcare to win a political fight.

I grew up in South Jersey. It’s where I hit my first home run, earned my first paycheck, and received an incredible public education that opened up a world of opportunity.

My wife, Kammy, and I have a 21-month-old boy and another baby on the way. As parents, we have to think not only about our future, but the future of our children, and the world they are going to live in, even beyond our own lifetimes.

I never thought I would run for Congress. I am doing this because I believe it is the right thing to do. I believe we need a new generation of leaders in Congress that are focused on representing the people and finding solutions. We need leaders who want to serve the people, represent their neighbors, and work together to build a stronger nation.

This morning I asked Andy Kim how he feels about some of the legislation we’re following, especially Ted Lieu’s infrastructure bill and John Conyers’ Medicare-for All bill. He hadn’t read either specific bill yet, but he was very supportive of each. "People in South Jersey and across this country,” he said, “want real solutions. They want our government to invest in the big ideas that will help re-energize our communities and give people the stability and hope they deserve. This means we need health care for everyone no matter if they are rich or poor because health care is a right. That must be a top priority because tens of millions of Americans without insurance is a disaster. Infrastructure is another place where we need bold solutions. We need to think big because this can't be done incrementally and needs vision, big ideas, and strong leadership to make the right investments in our future. Not only would this help create jobs, it is absolutely necessary to reinvigorate and revitalize our nation for decades to come."

The News For Republicans In New Jersey Could Hardly Be Worse

The recent Bedminster fundraiser, headlined by Señor Trumpanzee and Governor Chris Christie, for embattled Republican Congressman Tom MacArthur, showed how aware Republicans are of the toxicity of Trump and of the GOP agenda. There are no photos of MacArthur and his two party leaders, Señor T and Governor Lard Ass. The press were prevented from getting anywhere near the event and photos were strictly prohibited. What are they hiding? Who are they hiding from?

In New Jersey, at least, the stealth is too little too late. A newly released Quinnipiac poll of the state’s voters carries catastrophic predictions for the Republican Party in the Garden State. A fairly unattractive Democratic hack candidate, Wall Streeter Phil Murphy “buries” the GOP candidate, Christie’s Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno. Buries? Sure— 55% to 26%. “The blue wave,” explains Quinnipiac, “sweeps across the ballot as New Jersey voters say 57 - 29 percent that they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control the State Legislature… [I]f New Jersey is a weather vane, the wind is blowing in the Democrats' direction."

"Hobbled by eight years in a little noticed job and her ties to a remarkably unpopular governor, Lt. Gov. Guadagno is little-known and little-liked," Carroll added. "Half the state doesn't know enough about her to judge her as a candidate.

"The last New Jersey governor from Goldman Sachs, Jon Corzine, failed to win a second term, but only one-third of voters hold Murphy's Wall Street career against him. Guadagno's experience as lieutenant governor seems to be hurting her more."

Murphy gets a 33 - 18 percent favorability rating from New Jersey voters, while 47 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him. Guadagno gets a negative 20 - 28 percent favorability, with 50 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Murphy's 23 years at Goldman Sachs leaves 33 percent of voters with a negative impact on their opinion of him, with 7 percent saying it has a positive impact and 56 percent who say it has no impact on their opinion.

Guadagno's service as Gov. Christopher Christie's Lieutenant Governor leaves 54 percent of voters with a negative impact on their opinion of her; 9 percent of voters with a positive impact and 35 percent who say it has no impact on their opinion of her. Gov. Christie, President Trump Approval Ratings.

Christie makes history again as New Jersey voters disapprove 81 - 15 percent of the job he is doing, the worst approval rating for any governor in any state surveyed by Quinnipiac University in more than 20 years. Even Republicans disapprove 58 - 31 percent.

President Donald Trump also is at a historic low, as Garden State voters disapprove 66 - 28 percent of the job he is doing.

No wonder MacArthur insisted that no pictures of himself and Trump or himself and Christie— let alone himself and both of them— be allowed. He was happy to take the $800,000 Trump raised for him from about 100 fat cats, but his upcoming contest with Andy Kim is going to be difficult enough— with Kim tarring him as one of the principal authors of TrumpCare— without connecting him viscerally to the detested Republican president and the even more detested Republican governor. Only 19% Boo New Jersey voters approve of TrumpCare. 69% disapprove— including 67% bow independents. The closer Kim’s campaign can tie MacArthur to TrumpCare, Trump and Christie, the easier it will be for him to win in 2018. Photos from begone days, like the one below, won't help MacArthur.

Congressional Republicans Are Starting To Brace For The 2018 Anti-Trump Wave

Remember how well Trump's coattails worked out for Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire?

We still have a year and a half before the 2018 midterm election day and I feel confident we'll be seeing a LOT more stories like the one Politico's Jake Sherman wrote to start this week off: GOP growing worried they’ll lose House.

Republicans are growing increasingly worried that they will lose the House of Representatives. The pervasive pessimism comes as there continues to be a dearth of legislative victories, and a toxic political environment that appears to be worsening. Of course, the midterm elections are nearly a year and a half away. But more than a dozen Republicans we’ve spoken to in the last few weeks say the prospect for political and legislative wins big and small is dimming. And as much as President Donald Trump has worked to woo over fellow Republicans with dinners at the White House and regular meetings with GOP leadership, it hasn’t had much of an impact on the overall state of play.

The rank and file has been frustrated with the House committees, which have not produced a drumbeat of legislation to tout as victories. And the party is deeply split on health-care reform, a tax overhaul and infrastructure spending. Passing a budget to set the groundwork for tax reform is still seen as far off. And the congressional schedule doesn’t leave a lot of time to kick things into high gear. The House is in session for 13 more days and the Senate is in session for 14 more days before the July 4 recess. Not to mention, there’s serious concern in the GOP that there could be more revelations about President Donald Trump, and Robert Mueller’s investigation still remains the wild card. Attorney General Jeff Sessions testifying Tuesday before the Senate Intel Committee is expected to just add more drama to distract from the GOP agenda into the mix.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? Republicans will be less willing to take risks as they shift into political survival mode.

Different Republicans in vulnerable seats are navigating these treacherous waters in different ways. Carlos Curbelo, for example, in a South Florida swing district Hillary won handily, 56.7-40.6%, is doing whatever he can to separate himself from Trump in ways that will appeal to his constituents-- like on Climate Change, which is already manifesting itself in his district with rising oceans and regular street flooding.

New Jersey plutocrat Tom MacArthur is taking the opposite tact. He's in a swingy South Jersey district that voted 51.8-47.2% for Obama in 2012 but flipped to Trump last year 51.4% to 45.2%. MacArthur joined the mainstream conservative grouping, the Tuesday Group, but stabbed them in the back, making a deal with Mark Meadows of the hard right Freedom Caucus to wreck Medicaid and pass TrumpCare in the House. He was kicked out of the Tuesday Group and has attached himself to Trump. On Sunday afternoon Trump headlined a fat cat fundraiser for MacArthur at his sleazy Bedminster Golf Course (in Leonard Lance's 7th district; Lance, who voted for TrumpCare in committee, felt the pressure in the district and then flip-flopped on the final vote, infuriating Trump, was not invited to the event). Chris Christie was there but the press wasn't allowed to hear Trump and MacArthur address a crowd of about 100 wealthy right-wing check writers. The invitation said that the event-- Trump's first for a member of Congress since Putin installed him in the White House-- was sponsored by MacArthur Victory, the NRCC, TMAC PAC, and the New Jersey Republican State Committee. MacArthur is a notorious self-funder, buying his first race (2014) with a 5 million dollar check but taking so much in special interest bribes-- nearly $2 million-- as a freshman that he only had to write himself a $200,000 check for his 2016 campaign.

Anyway, all across the country Republican incumbents in swing districts are going to have to do the calculus and decide if they're going to run from Trump or embrace him. So far many have warily tried to stick with him despite all the scandal and controversy. California congressmembers on shaky political ground-- like Darrell Issa, Mimi Walters, Dana Rohrabacher, Steve Knight, Devin Nunes and Duncan Hunter-- have made the bet the the DCCC is too lame to field effective campaigns against them and they have tied their political futures to Trump. Zombie-like they seem to expect him to suddenly change his ways and turn the disastrous approval numbers-- not just for himself, but for that party-- around.

Katie Hill is the Santa Clarita Valley progressive who we're hoping replaces Trump rubber stamp Steve Knight in CA-25. This morning, in a wide ranging discussion of the issues facing her neighbors in L.A. and Ventura counties she mentioned that "Government health care spending is vital to the well being our community and it’s also a jobs issue. Steve Knight’s yes vote on Trumpcare was an irreverent vote to our very purple, working class district. Instead of stripping 77,000 of our neighbors of their health care, we need to be bringing more people into the health care system by strengthening the ACA and eventually moving towards a single payer system. That way people can get the care they need and those working in health related professions, like my mom who is a nurse, can make a decent living working in a compassionate profession. If we look at Knight’s voting record, he's voting 100% in favor of Trump’s legislative agenda... To me, this is a massive failure of the representative government we’ve been promised. We have to put the concerns of our neighbors before scoring political points with party leaders. Most importantly, we need representatives willing to buck partisan party politics when it compromises the well being of our community."

Is Tom MacArthur's Self-Financed Political Career Crumbling Before Our Eyes?

The biggest group of mainstream conservatives in the House, the Tuesday Group felt betrayed by one of its leaders, New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur, who worked with radical right extremist Mark Meadows of the Freedom Caucus to help pass TrumpCare. Officially, on Tuesday he resigned from the Tuesday Group. But 2 Republican staffers have told me, he was pushed out of the group by angry members who feel that his TrumpCare betrayal will cost dozens of Republicans their seats in the 2018 midterms. "That bill is going to cost [Leonard] Lance and [Mike] Coffman their seats... that's what [MacArthur] accomplished. He's a pariah around here now."

Officially, the DCCC has included NJ-03 on their list of targeted districts but they haven't recruited a candidate yet and I was told that the district isn't a priority because Trump beat Hillary there 51.4% to 45.2%-- more typical backward-looking DCCC "strategy." (Obama beat Romney there 51.8% to 47.2% and beat McCain by about the same margin.) NJ-03 is a South Jersey swing district. Most of the voters live in Burlington County, primarily in the suburbs northeast of Philly, like Mount Laurel, Cinnaminson and Willingboro, although the district's biggest city is Tom's River in Ocean County on the other side of the Pine Barrens.

The DCCC has insisted on running Republican-lite candidates and the last Democratic congressman to represent the area was Blue Dog John Adler who won the seat in 2008, running as a normal Democrat-- and with a bigger archest than any other Democratic non-incumbent in the country. But he voted with the Republicans so frequently that when the 2010 midterms rolled around his 52-48% win turned into a 53-47% loss as Democratic voters refused to even bother turning out for the DCCC's idea of a candidate (not their own). And this despite Adler spending $3,285,638 to Republican Jon Runyan's $1,518,073.

In 2012 the DCCC ran Adler's widow, who lost by 10 points and 2 years later they ran another conservative-leaning Dem, Aimee Belgard, who did even worse (for what was then an open seat) against rich carpetbagger MacArthur. At that point the DCCC gave up on the district. The "Democrat" who took MacArthur on in 2016, Frederick Lavergne, billed himself as a Democrat-Republican, wasn't supported by the DCCC and reported raising only $600 and spending nothing. MacArthur spent $1,910,489.

But there's some good news on the horizon. Progressive Andy Kim, a Rhodes Scolar who worked in the Obama White House, is strongly considering running in 2018. The founder and Executive Director of RISE Stronger, a grassroots group whose mission is "to build a dynamic, strategic movement of politically engaged communities that demand a responsible and accountable government which serves the interests of the people." Their story:

In the days following the 2016 presidential election, Andy Kim, a former White House Director for Iraq at the National Security Council, gathered several hundred people to a meeting in Washington, D.C. to lay out a vision for a new wave of citizen engagement in this uncertain and tumultuous political landscape in America. That meeting launched RISE Stronger, which has since grown to become a citizen watchdog organization of nearly 30,000 members across the country who are ready to ensure elected officials and government are both responsible and accountable to the people.

In that first meeting, people said they felt paralyzed-- unable to think about how to move beyond the uncertainty, disappointment, and fear. Participants struggled to think of actions that regular citizens could take beyond voting, calling their representative, and donating money to a cause. Dissatisfied with these limited options, RISE Stronger emerged to reinvigorate what it means to be a citizen and to empower Americans across the country to find new ways to engage in the American democracy.

The goal of RISE Stronger is simple: capture the political energy of Americans, sustain it, and focus it towards action that will ensure that the government and its leaders are accountable to its citizens, transparent in their actions and policies, and guided solely by the interests and values of the American people.

Keeping grassroots activism at the heart of its work, RISE Stronger draws from a vast network of former White House and government officials and other policy experts to inform and augment the work of its members throughout the country. A network of local and state chapters, and an active online hub will serve as an incubator to new ideas and initiatives that propel forward the work of members and increase the engagement of Americans.

RISE Stronger is made up of passionate people from all walks of life who are committed to protecting and advancing freedom, equality, and justice, and ensuring a transparent, responsible and accountable government for all.

"MacArthur has become Trump's biggest supporter in New Jersey," wrote Kim, "and is the main author and lead negotiator for TrumpCare 2.0 that jeopardizes care for people with pre-existing conditions while blatantly protecting the health care plans of Congress from these changes."