Uncalled House Races-- Just A Dozen To Go

 

The latest election tallies show that Joe Biden is leading President Trump by 5,060,175 votes. That is a larger number than the margin between President Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012. In the 2012 election, Obama had 4,982,296 more votes than Romney.

This morning's election counties have Trump losing by 5,060,175 votes and that number will keep growing as more votes are counted in New York and California. At the moment, it stands like this:

• President-elect Joe Biden- 76,997,481 (50.8%)-- 290 electoral votes
• Señor Donald J. Trumpanzee- 71,926,263 (47.5%)- 214 electoral votes

There were a dozen actual swing states and 99% of the votes are counted in each one. Biden won 7 and Trump won 5:

This morning the race in Los Angeles for CA-34 was called for Jimmy Gomez, a garden variety progressive politician, who was in a D vs D fight with a super-progressive activist, David Kim. That leaves just an even dozen uncalled House races nationally, 3 more in California, 1 in Illinois, 1 in Iowa and 7 on New York.

The other California races are all for seats that were flipped from red to blue in 2018 and each pits a Republican against an uninspiring, pointless New Dem.

CA-21 includes all of Kings County and parts of Fresno, Kern and Tulare. It is 75% Hispanic and the PVI is D+5. In 2016, Hillary beat Trump there 55.2% to 39.7% and in 2018 TJ Cox ousted David Valadao by 862 votes-- 57,239 (50.4%) to 56,377 (49.6%). Cox has been a shitty Congress, not as shitty as Valadao, but utterly worthless. Valadao challenged him to a rematch and, with 91% of the vote counted, is now leading 72,350 (51.4%) to 68,324 (48.6%). Cox raised $4,798,088 to Valadao's $3,721,619. The DCCC spent $3,704,254 and Pelosi's House Majority PAC spent $3,218,656, about the same thing the Republican committees spent trying to help Valadao.

CA-25 is the Santa Clarita Valley/Antelope Valley/Simi Valley district that Katie Hill flipped in 2018 and then resigned from in a sex scandal. Mike Garcia beat pointless conservative Democrat Christy Smith in the special election on March 3-- 95,667 (54.9%) to 78,721 (45.1%). That was despite massive DCCC spending on Smith's behalf in a district with a Democratic registration advantage where the PVI is even but where Hillary beat Trump by 7 points. In 2018, Hill beat the Republican incumbent, Steve Knight, 133,209 (54.4%) to 111,813 (45.6%). With 99% of the vote counted, Garcia and Smith have been seesawing back and forth, with him currently leading her by 159 votes-- 165,178 (50.0%) to 165,019 (50.1%). Neither is fit to be in Congress.

Worst of the 3 terrible Democratic candidates in the uncalled California races is Gil Cisneros, the lottery winner who bought an Orange County/L.A./San Bernardino open seat in 2018 with $9,252,762 of his lottery winnings. He campaigned as a fake progressive and, predictably, joined the New Dems when he got to Congress and ran up a voting record rated "F" by ProgressivePunch. He's a waste of a seat and his 126,002 (51.6%) to 118,391 (48.4%) 2018 win over Republican Young Kim is-- with 99% of the vote counted-- not looking good. She leads him 167,564 (50.6%) to 163,396 (49.4%). Refusing to spend much of his own money again (just $370,887), he was out-raised by her $5,319,367 to $3,779,013. The DCCC and Pelosi's PAC put in another $2.6 million but it doesn't seem to have helped combat Democratic lethargy for another useless Republican-lite candidate with no accomplishments.

The uncalled race in Illinois is for the R+5 district northwest of Chicago, where Lauren Underwood ousted Randy Hultgren in 2018-- 156,035 (52.5%) to 141,164 (47.5%), winning in all 7 counties. Having made some progressive noises in 2018, she quickly ran up an "F" voting record (ProgressivePunch). Although Obama won the district in 2008, Hillary lost to Trump by 4 points. Right now with 99% of the votes counted, Underwood is narrowly leading right-wing fanatic and perennial self-funder Jim Oberweis, 198,017 (50.4%) to 194,588 (49.6%). Oberweis kicked in $1,208,179 from his personal fortune, but she out-raised him $7,099,198 to $2,515,192. The DCCC considered her safe and didn't spend in the district.

The Iowa race, in the southeast quadrant of the state (IA-02) is open because Democrat Dave Loebsack decided to retire. The Democrats ran Rita Hart and the Republican candidate is Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the D+1 district that re-elected Loebsack by 12 points in 2018, two years after giving Trump a 4 points win. (Obama took in by 13 points in 2012.) This is another race that is see-sawing back and forth. Right now, with 89% of the votes counted, Miller-Meeks leads 196,860 (50.0%) to 196,812 (50.0%)-- just 48 votes! Right now, this is the closest congressional race in the country. Hart out-raised Miller-Meeks $3,631,135 to $1,518,295 and the DCCC and Pelosi's PAC kicked in about $6.5 million, about the same as the GOP committees.

And that brings us to New York, where there are 7 uncalled races. Trump won both Long Island counties again. The Democrats nominated a conservative Blue Dog, Jackie Gordon. to run for Peter King's open seat on the South Shore. Only 78% of the vote has been counted but she is losing to Republican Andrew Garbarino, 157,482 (57.8%) to 112,584 (41.3%), not a gap she looks likely to close enough to win. On the North Shore New Dem Tom Suozzi looks like he's in trouble behind George Santos-- 137,938 (50.5%) to 133,765 (49.0%)-- but will likely win substantially with 28% of ballots (mostly blue mail in votes) uncounted.

The red-leaning Trump strongholds in Staten Island and south Brooklyn are delivering for the GOP and Democrats have been wiped out there. With 85% of the votes counted Blue Dog Max Rose-- who campaigned against his own party and is not that dissimilar to a stinking pile of shit-- is losing to Republican Nicole Malliotakis, 136,383 (57.9%) to 99,224 (42.1%). The PVI is R+3 and Rose has been one of the worst Democrats in the House and clearly doesn't deserve to be reelected, despite having outraised Malliotakis $8,350,467 to $3,052,007. The DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC wasted over $9 million on this race.

Although neither are is called yet, Sean Patrick Maloney and Antonio Delgado (NY-18 and 19) both lead their Republican opponents, Maloney 135,819 (51.0%) to 127,918 (48.1%)and Delgado 141,993 (50.3%) to 134,602 (47.6%), with a Libertarian shaving 1.2% of the vote off the Republican's total. About 80% is in on each candidate and, like Suozzi both these New Dems are likely going back to the House. Maloney has already announced he wants to run for the DCCC chair. I doubt he could be as bad as Cheri Bustos, but he'd be very close if he manages to win (unlikely).

The most exciting races are further north, NY-22 and NY-24. In NY-22 Anthony Brindisi-- the worst Blue Dog in the House, and one who many of his colleagues are actually hoping loses-- is in a rematch with ex-Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, She's a psychotic Trumpster so this is a race without a lesser evil. With 80% counted she's leading 139,926 (54.4%) to 111,539 (43.4%) in an R+6 district. It's hard to imagine Brindisi winning. Good riddance!

NY-24 (Syracuse and environs) is a D+3 district where progressive Dana Balter is working to oust mainstream Republican John Katko. 78% is counted and he leads her 155,830 (58.5%) to 110,728 (37.8%) in a rematch from 2018. Obama won the district by 16 points in 2012 and Hillary won it by about 3 and a half points in 2016. In 2018 Katko was reelected 136,920 (52.6%) to 123,226 (47.4%). This year he outraised Balter $3,541,163 to $2,711,811, but the DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC kicked in a little over $5 million, about the same as the Republican committees.