Wednesday, November 04, 2020

The DCCC Failed Beyond Anyone's Wildest Expectations

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Let's start at the top, in the northeast corner of Illinois, CD-17, carefully gerrymandered by the Democratic legislature to elect Democrats. But instead of a Democrat, it is represented by Blue Dog/New Dem Cheri Bustos, chair of the DCCC. When I woke this morning 55% of the votes had been counted and this is what it looks like:
Esther Joy King (R)- 91,942 (51.9%)
Chris Bustos- 85,187 (48.1%)
One of the problem the Democrats had this cycle is that Bustos was determined to create a Democratic House conference that looked like her-- conservative-- by recruiting and supporting dreadful candidates. It will be a few more days before we know exactly how much the DCCC and the House Majority PAC wasted on conservative Democrats but they raised close to $300 million and tens of millions of dollars were flushed down the toilet trying to save the seats of worthless Blue Dogs and New Dems and in trying to elect more worthless Blue Dog and New Dem candidates.

In terms of IEs, the DCCC spent, for example, $5 million trying to save Collin Peterson's ass. Why? So he could continue voting with the Republicans. Maybe that $5 million could have been pumped into Austin and elected progressives Mike Siegel and Julie Oliver. Instead, if you add up all the money the DCCC and the House Majority PAC spent on IEs for both Mike and Julie together you come up with a grand total of... zero.

All 3 districts-- MN-07, TX-10 and TX-25-- had immense turnout and all three have been officially called for the Republicans. That $5 million helped buy Peterson 137,085 votes (39.9%). And the lack of help from the DCCC didn't prevent Siegel from taking 186,210 votes (45.3%) and Oliver from taking 164,415 votes (42.0%). Siegel and Oliver challenged Republican multimillionaires Michael McCaul and Roger Williams and were seriously out-raised-- McCaul $3,515,771 to Siegel's $2,332,415 and Williams' $2,160,554 (including at least $50,000 from his own personal bank account) to Oliver's $1,809,951. Meanwhile, decades of corporate-friendly corruption helped Peterson keep up with Congresswoman-elect Michelle Fischbach. She raised $2,205,150 and he raised $2,284,742. That extra $5 million from the DCCC didn't do any good at all.

As Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer put it at Politico this morning, "Tuesday was an abject disaster for Democrats in Washington. To imagine the amount of soul searching and explaining the party will have to do after Tuesday is absolutely dizzying. The infighting will be bloody-- as it should be. We fielded text after text from Hill Democrats Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning with existential questions about their leadership and the direction of their party... Democrats and Republicans told us that Dems would win a dozen seats in the House, and knock off a whole host of Republican incumbents, and that was completely wrong. Instead, Republicans-- powered by the NRCC and CLF-- beat a bunch of Democratic incumbents."

Votes are still being counted but it is safe to say that the Republicans are going to be a much stronger minority party in the House than they were in 2019 and 2020. I can't find a single case of a Democrat beating a Republican incumbent but I see at least half a dozen Democratic incumbents-- generally from the conservative Republican wing of the Democratic Party (so no tears spilled)-- losing, including odious Blue Dogs Collin Peterson (MN), Kendra Horn (OK), Joe Cunningham (SC), Max Rose (NY), Xochitl Torres Small (NM), and Anthony Brindisi (NY), plus Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (New Dem-FL) and Donna Shalala (FL), the last two in districts that are, respectively, D+6 and D+5.

I'll go state by state where there were House races worth mentioning. In Alaska, the DCCC supported an independent candidate, Alyse Galvin against Don Young. She out-raised Young $4,390,232 to $1,778,232 and the DCCC and the House Majority PAC spent around $2 million on her. Although just 36% of votes are counted, she's just at 38.2%.

Arizona was a bright spot for Democrats. Biden flipped the state and conservative quasi-Democrat Mark Kelly beat incumbent Republican Martha McSally. Although Blue Dog (and "ex"-Republican) Tom O'Halleran is hanging on to his seat my his fingernails, New Dem Hiral Tirpirneni appears to be about to possibly beat a Republican incumbent-- leading David Schweikert 169,543 (50.3%) to 167,761 (49.7%), with 80% of the vote counted.

In Arkansas, it looked like the Democrats had a shot in the Little Rock district with Joyce Elliott, but incumbent French Hill beat back the challenge 55.1% to 44.9%. California's final results will probably take at least a week-- at least but there are 13 uncalled House races now; these are the ones that might result in a district flip:
CA-01- 73% counted

Doug LaMalfa (R)- 142,742 (55%)
Audrey Denney (D)- 116,985 (45%)

CA-04- 81% counted

Tom McClintock (R)- 173,324 (52.9%)
Brynne Kennedy (New Dem)- 154,090 (47.1%)

CA-08 (open seat)- 60% counted

Jay Obernolte (R)- 90,179 (53.3%)
Christine Bubser (D)- 79,080 (46.7%)

CA-21- 71% counted (in a disgustingly low turn-out election

David Valadao (R)- 56,269 (51.4%)
TJ Cox (New Dem)- 53,236 (48.6%)

CA-22- 86% counted

Devin Nunes (R)- 126,022 (53.5%)
Phil Arballo (D)- 109,596 (46.5%)

CA-25- 82% counted

Christy Smith (New Dem)- 131,218 (50.5%)
Mike Garcia (R)- 128,462 (49.5%)

CA-39- 85% counted

Young Kim (R)- 134,556 (50.2%)
Gil Cisneros (New Dem)- 133-263 (49.8%)

CA-42- 49% counted

Ken Calvert (R)- 83,706 (55.4%)
Liam O'Mara (D)- 67,331 (44.6%)

CA-48- 93% counted

Michelle Steel (R)- 169,179 (50.3%)
Harley Rouda (New Dem)- 167,229 (49.7%)

CA-50- 78% counted

Darrell Issa (R)- 136,322 (52.2%)
Ammar Campa-Najjar (New Dem)- 124,688 (47.8%)
Colorado has just one uncalled race but it doesn't look good. Neo-Nazi Lauren Boebert beat right-wing Republican Scott Tipton in the primary and now she's leading Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush 51.1% to 45.7% with 91% counted.

In Florida, the state party did what it does best-- lost through lack of trying and through incompetence and self-serving corruption. They lost two seats in very blue districts and failed to win any of the seats that looked flippable.

In Georgia, the two uncalled races in the Atlanta suburbs both show New Dems leading-- incumbent Lucy McBath with 53.5% and Carolyn Bourdeaux with 51.2% in the open red seat.


In Illinois-- aside from the good news about Bustos' agony-- it looks like progressive Marie Newman will replace Blue Dog Dan Lipinski by beating Mike Fricilone 53.2% to 46.8%. Meanwhile with 78% of the vote counted perennial super-rich right-wing nutcase Jim Oberweis may be on the verge of ousting New Dem Lauren Underwood. With 78% of the votes counted, he has 151,425 (50.3%) to her 149,395 (49.7%).

Indiana looked like a chance for a Democratic pickup in an open red seat (IN-05) but with 89% of the vote counted, it looks like New Dem Christina Hale was beamed by Victoria Spartz 51.7% to 44.2%.

Iowa-- TOTAL shitshow: Trump won the state, Joni Ernst was reelected to the Senate over a weak Democratic opponent Chuck Schumer recruited, and all 4 house seats look pretty bad. Randy Feenstra (basically Steve King-lite) beat JD Scholten 62.1% to 37.9% (86% counted) after the DCCC told him they wouldn't help him unless he played down his progressive agenda and allowed them to staff his campaign with their useless operatives; he turned them down. Conservative and useless incumbent Abby Finkenauer is behind 211,573 (51.3%) to 200,814 (48.7% with 91% counted and the even worse New Dem Cindy Axne is barely hanging on-- 218,968 (49.0%) to 212,727 (47.6%). It was thought that Rita Hart would hold onto Democrat's Dave Loebsack's seat but with 89% of the vote counted it's a 50-50 race-- 196,773 for Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and 196,487 for Hart.

In Michigan it looks like Justin Amash's seat is going to Republican supermarket scion Peter Meijer instead of New Dem Hillary Scholten. The DCCC decided to not help Jon Hoadley (too progressive and too gay for their tastes) and he lost 58-38% to Fred Upton (with 70% counted). New Dem Elissa Slotkin is narrowly holding onto her seat (MI-08) with 50.9% and 96% of the vote counted but fellow New Dem Haley Stevens seems to be losing-- 77% counted-- to Eric Esshaki, 50.4% to 47.6%. Good news: Rashida stomped her GOP opponent 77.2% to 19.5%.

Democrats missed pick-up opportunities in Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and New Jersey, where New Dem Amy Kennedy looks to be failing to oust fence-jumper Jeff Van Drew who is ahead 50.9% to 47.5% (75% counted).

In New Mexico the Torres Small/Herrell rematch looks like (68% counted) the Republican beat the Blue Dog 53.3% to 46.6% this time. The Trump voters that didn't come out in 2018, definitely voted yesterday!

New York had 6 Democratic losers: New Dem Nancy Goroff and Blue Dog Jackie Gordon on Long Island, Blue Dog Max Rose (with just 42.1% of the vote) in Brooklyn/Staten Island, Blue Dog Anthony Brindisi (NY-22), progressive Dana Balter (58.5% to 37.8%) and progressive Nate McMurray (31.1%). On a brighter note, look forward to Congressmen Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones, while AOC beat back the well-financed ($9,590,891) Republican challenge with about 70% of the vote.

North Carolina reelected Democratic Governor Roy Cooper but it looks bad for Biden and Cunningham and with all House seats now called, the Dems picked up the two lay-ups (NC-02 and NC-06), both with crap conservatives but failed everywhere else they thought they had a chance. Nazi Madison Cawthorn beat Moe Davis 243,898 (54.5%) to 189,516 (42.4%).

The only district the DCCC tried to win in Ohio was in Cincinnati and their New Dem candidate lost with 44.5%.

In Oklahoma, one of the worst Dems in Congress, Blue Dog Kendra Horn was beaten 158,044 (52.1%) to 145,541 (47.9%)-- with 95% reporting. Good riddance!

Pennsylvania is still counting votes but it looks like New Dem Christina Finello is losing to Brian Fitzpatrick in the bluest Pennsylvania seat held by a Republican. Meanwhile conservatives Chrissy Houlahan (52.7%), Susan Wild (46.7%) and Conor Lamb (43%) are having trouble holding onto their seats, Blue Dog Eugene DePasquale is being crushed. With 82% of the vote counted, Matt Cartwright is having a tough time as well but will probably hold onto his seat once all the early votes are counted.

Texas was tragic. Every Democratic hope-- the good, the bad and the ugly-- was dashed. Instead of half a dozen pick-ups, there were no changes and the Democrats came close to losing a New Dem (Lizzie Fletcher) and a Blue Dog (Vicente Gonzalez). The DCCC poured over $7 million into Blue Dog Sri Kulkarni's race and he lost 202,320 (49.8%) to 173,899 (42.8%). Even the "easiest" seat for the Dems to flip-- TX-23, an open seat Hillary won and with an R+1 PVI-- was lost by Gina Ortiz Jones, a mediocre candidate the DCCC spent over $5 million on.

With just 67% of the vote counted, Utah Blue Dog Ben McAdams in barely holding onto his seay-- 109,880 (49.5%) to 102,115 (46%).

In Virginia conservative Democrat Elaine Luria seems to be holding on with 50.7% and Blue Dog Abigail Spanberger is in a 50-50 nail-biter against neo-Nazi Nick Freitas (199,786 to 199,513, with 86% of the vote counted).

And no changes in West Virginia, Wisconsin or Wyoming. In Washington 10's D vs D race, conservative New Dem Marilyn Strickland beat progressive Beth Doglio 50.2% to 35.9%.

Once all the figures are in, we'll look more closely at how Bustos wasted hundreds of millions of dollars trying-- and mostly failing-- to elect conservative Democraps.


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20 Comments:

At 9:10 AM, Blogger Bil said...

Howie, the IL 14 Underwood/Oberweis race is under a 900 vote Oberweis lead now. She's been winning the mail ins 2:1 and they have a couple weeks to count them. I think she's gonna pull it out.
RIP Denny Hastert's, ick, Ultra RED district he won 10 times.

 
At 9:12 AM, Blogger Knockout Zed said...

I don't believe there will be a postmortem, just more finger pointing instead of self assessment. If by chance there is a postmortem, I think any conclusion reached will lead them to think that they weren't conservative enough. And 2024 will be two right of center parties vying for power, again.

 
At 9:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NOW are you convinced that there is no taking this Party over from within and doing anything with it?

As I write this, the House majority has been hammered. The Hose just might flip. It remains possible that the Senate will still be McConnell's playtoy.

The DNC DID snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and as long as the Congress remains even partly under Republican dominance, the only thing the "Democrats' will have achieved is to make Joe Biden's real campaign slogan -Nothing Will Fundamentally Change- the only true statement of the entire failed campaign.

#DemExit #NewPeopleParty

 
At 9:26 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

I’m not gonna lose any sleep the Corporate Dems lost their races last night they deserved it especially Brindisi & Rose bye bye.

 
At 9:31 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

I hate to say it Howie...The bottom line is the voters, who chose the Republican candidates, and the blame must clearly be placed on them (or us, unfortunately). American voters are at fault. They appear to prefer fascism. No other way to slice it. They like and prefer the Republican candidates. It must be noted that many of the excellent progressive candidates lost, so there awful results are not only due to Blue Dogs and New Dems chosen by Bustos, though I do agree she stinks. This election was up to the voters, and they made their choices. Nazi Germans loved Hitler and it was only the USA that saved the world. Americans love Trump. Go fucking figure. Who is going to save us now?

 
At 9:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hone, there will be about 80 million who could have voted who didn't.

Of those voting, you can say that it's a nazi/fascist split. But more did not vote than voted for either nazis or fascists. Who can say. But it's been trending this way for decades. And why not? With nothing and nobody to stop it...

And after the democrap party ratfucked Bernie twice to force shit fascist candidates on voters, who can blame them for not showing up.

"One of the problem the Democrats had this cycle is that Bustos was determined to create a Democratic House conference that looked like her (fascist)"

IF the Bernie sagas have proved anything, it is that the democrap party would much rather lose all elections than allow a progressive to have any influence at all.

One wonders when this obvious fact, truth since 1972, will make any impression on the punditry here.

You gotta realize the truth before you can be cajoled into DOING something about it -- like euthanizing the democrap party.

prolly much too late now. we're all fucked. and you are as much to blame as the nazis.

 
At 10:05 AM, Blogger Librarian Guy said...

Thank you, Howie, this is great reporting and needs to be said.

The Dem party is a walking corpse, which is why, if Biden somehow manages to eke out a "victory," he is the perfect representative thereof.

Last night I watched the Chapo Trap House twitchstream, and they made the point that the RePukes are now the working class (read "undereducated") party-- The Dems stand for nothing beyond what Joe promised-- nothing will change, you peons will never get M4A despite majorities of 70%+ for it . . .

The question is not whether Amerikka will ever have a 3rd party, it's whether it will ever have a 2nd, Non-Neoliberal one? Apparently not. We are headed for a collapse like what happened in the Eastern bloc in 1989-- & clearly much of the South will go full Nazi, Neoconfederate. It may (?) not be as bad in some Northern states, but the Dem elites only serve the PMC and will not be part of any better world, ever. Glad that they have made that abundantly clear to everyone with a functioning mind.

 
At 10:09 AM, Blogger davidchop said...

Polls haven't been closed a day yet and already you're burning down the Dems.

Never change DWT, never change.

 
At 10:13 AM, Blogger Knockout Zed said...

The benefit of the doubt is EARNED. The Dems have not earned a thing.

 
At 10:15 AM, Blogger Knockout Zed said...

Agreed.

 
At 11:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Hitler got a role in government with less than less than a third of the vote of Germans. This country easily has almost half the population willing to vote for someone of that ilk. I think Trump is too much of a coward and is too mentally challenged to start an uprising and invalidate the election and take power, but it is obvious our population has more than enough willing participants to make it happen in the future.

This was an election where neither person was going to go anything to help the majority, but we had 4 years of chaos and falling farther behind. In an election that was about Trump's leadership he actually got more votes than he did when running against Hillary Clinton. 4 years of shit governance and racism plus a less reviled opponent and he got more people to vote for him and we are discussing the crappy candidates picked to populate the sideshow? We could have a perfect version of Bernie and 400 true progressives running for House and Senate and we would be facing an electoral dead heat and likelihood of a Senate run by the racists.

 
At 12:02 PM, Blogger Librarian Guy said...

I'm glad that David Chop is such a Hillary/DNC dead-ender. They are great and have never f---ed up, despite the obvious facts.

I wonder why he isn't spending all his time at Daily Kos with their Borg Hive mind. I was actually naive enough to like DK when Bush Jr. was President. Then king Obama got in their and suddenly his "surge" in Afghanistan & drone killings of the Natives were great, same in Iraq, etc. etc. And they even kept quiet about his "Grand Bargain" offer to the RePukes to gut Social Security, which they only refused due to his skin color. . .

Some folks never learn, I guess.

 
At 12:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David Chop, the voters burned down the Dems. Is there any accountability for Chuck Schumer and the DCCC for recruiting Cal Cunningham to lose what should have been an easy NC Senate seat because he couldn't keep it in his pants? Or how they picked 2018 loser Amy McGrath to lose to the Turtle, one of the most unpopular Senators in the country with the voters in his state, by 20%? They couldn't even field a candidate who could beat Joni Ernst or Susan Collins.

 
At 2:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

On the contrary, the DCCC (the democrap party) succeeded wildly. Not only did they PROBABLY
win the odd election, they did so without having to allow any progressive thoughts into the election.

They'll lose in a massive bloodbath next time, of course. But they'll have another cheney or trump to run against soon enough, and it'll be another round.

 
At 2:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The nation won't survive that long, 2:16.

 
At 3:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

a 3rd party will depend on ranked choice voting. This might be implementable on the state level (but if left up to the voters and a voter initiative which is the only way, well many voters are dumb and will vote however propaganda tells them so it may or may not pass). But I see no way to a 3rd party without some form of ranked choice voting.

 
At 3:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unfortunately Cheri Bustos went on to win her election. It just seemed so perfect that such a lousy candidate who chooses other lousy candidates who go on to lose election would get a taste of her own medicine. And now we're stuck with her for another 2 years.

 
At 6:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ranked choice would only work if the voters got a lot smarter. you think that can happen?

and lousy is a descriptor only from your perspective. Clearly the voters love them some corrupt neoliberal fascism... maybe because they are not nazis (yet)... maybe because they are just dumber than shit.

but either way, the bustos thing portends the future.

there can be no solution until the left gets a lot smarter.

if you want to discuss ways things can get better, you have to start there or you are wasting your time.

 
At 6:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

and a site that spends 2 years both telling the horrible truth about the democrap party and, concurrently, advocating donating to and electing more in that horrible party is THE OPPOSITE of helpful.

 
At 10:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anthony Brindisi was a fairly capable, if undistinguished, member of the NY Assembly from Utica, where he looked set to stay for years, doing the bidding of local real estate wheeler dealers, and supporting progressive causes, such as organic ag--there is quite the vibrant food scene here--when he could. He was recruited by Sen Schemer to run for congress, where he was clearly out of his depth. There was also talk around town to the effect that Mrs. Brindisi was not crazy about raising children in DC. He did not belong in congress, being neither aggressive or charismatic and his diligent best was simply not enough. Shumer IMHO, ought to have minded his own business.

 

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