Are Big 2022 Losses For House Dems Already Baked Into The Cake?

 

We've been predicting for all this year that the Republicans would win seats in 2022. But... that was based on several assumptions, which turned out to me overly optimistic about the course of the 2020 cycle and the ability of Democrats to prosper even with a completely inept and incapable DCCC with the worst chairperson in living memory. The assumptions were:

• that an anti-Trump tsunami would give the Democrats many new seats in traditionally Republican districts;
• that this year the Democrats would hold the reddest seats they had won in 2018;
• that going forward, the Democrats would have control of both Houses of Congress and the White House;
• that going forward the Democrats would accomplish nothing-- or at least nothing big-- that would help working families.

The first 3 assumptions were all wrong. If there was an anti-red wave, it was weak and didn't impact down-ballot races... at least not in favor of Democrats. In the House, the Democrats picked up 3 seats and lost around a dozen (votes are still being counted in several). The Democrats failed to win the Senate and it isn't likely the two January 5th runoffs in Georgia are going to go their way. If they did, that would get them to a 50-50 tie, which could be broken by Vice President Kamala. BUT... getting to that 50-50 vote is dependent on a shitload of garbage senators cooperating... like Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), Joe Manchin (WV), Tom Carper (DE), Jacky Rosen (NV), Mark Warner (VA), all of whom vote against progressive proposals, and soon to be joined by Mark Kelly (AZ) and Frackenlooper (CO) who will certainly be as bad, if not worse.

Back to the House, minority leader McCarthy came out yesterday and said that he guarantees that Republicans will win the majority in the 2022 midterms: "We have never been stronger in the sense of what the future holds for us-- we have never been in a stronger position. We won this by adding more people to the party. And we won this in an atmosphere where we were the one group that everyone guaranteed we would lose. And we’re the ones who won." Yeah... and the seats they won:

• Collin Peterson (MN-07)- R+12
• Joe Cunningham (SC-01)- R+10
• Kendra Horn (OK-05)- R+10
• Xochitl Torres Small (NM-02)- R+6
• Harley Rouda (CA-48)- R+4
• Max Rose (NY-11)- R+3
• Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)- R+6
• Ben McAdams (UT-04)- R+13

That's what you call some low-hanging fruit. And then there were the two overwhelmingly Hispanic districts in Miami-Dade, where only the Democratic Party would be stupid enough to not run Hispanic candidates. They were begging for losses and they got them, from prominent Republican Latinos.

Washington Post reporter Paulina Firozi, wrote that the 2020 suburban thing didn't work out for the DCCC the way they predicted it would. "Democrats," she reported, "have spent years wooing suburban voters, seeking to build a durable House majority on a foundation of affluent, well-educated voters repelled by President Trump and a hard-right GOP. But last week, that foundation developed serious cracks. Republicans not only reversed Democratic midterm gains in rural districts that had voted strongly for Trump in 2016, but clawed back at least one seat in Southern California while leading in other suburban districts that are yet to be called. Even more alarming for Democrats, predictions of broad gains in the suburbs of Texas, Indiana, Missouri and other states simply failed to materialize-- casting doubt on the party’s long-term House strategy of offsetting the party’s dwindling appeal among less-educated White voters with greater support among the more educated."

That's what I always mean when I talk about these losers-- the Kendra Horns, Harley Roudas, Anthony Brindisis, etc, ruining the Democratic brand. In most places a Democratic coalition of unionists, women, people of color, young people... turned out for Biden-- most to get rid of Trump, rather than to elect Biden per se. Democratic messaging isn't offering them anything much-- Pelosi's PayGo?-- beyond Trump must go. Whether or not McCarthy will be able to deliver on his "guarantee" for 2022 will depend on how seriously the Democrats take the identity crisis they're living through now. If they are determined to remain a Republican-lite party... well, we all know how that always turns out.

The Democrats should try to pass a progressive agenda that would clearly help working families. If that gets blocked by the Senate again, they-- including Biden-- can and should blame the gridlock on obstructionist Republicans who don't want people-- voters-- to get a fair shake. If the Democrats do that, rather than take the Republican-lite road-- they can defy historical projections and win seats in 2022. When FDR won a landslide in 1932, House Democrats won a net of 97 Republican seats. They did stuff for people for the next two years and were rewarded in the midterms, watching 14 more Republican seats flip blue. In 1944, FDR was reelected to her 4th term and he brought 20 new Democratic House members in on his coattails. The 1946 midterms was another reward for Democrats who did stuff for people: 55 more seats! The midterms after Bill Clinton's reelection saw the Democrats win 5 seats, which led to Newt Gingrich's resignation.