Who-- No, WHAT-- Comes After Pelosi?

 

If next Tuesday comes and goes and Shahid Buttar hasn't pulled off the biggest political upset of 2020-- you can help him do that here-- Pelosi is almost definitely headed back to the speaker's chair, as what Politico calls "may be the most powerful congressional leader in modern U.S. history." I don't mean to quibble and I'm not certain how they define "modern," but Sam Rayburn (1940-1960 with two brief interludes) and Tip O'Neill (1977-1987) in the House and Lyndon Johnson (1953-1961), Mike Mansfield (1961-1977) and Mitch McConnell (2007-present) in the Senate have been pretty impactful and historically powerful. But Heather Caygle, John Bresnahan and Sarah Ferris wrote that "In the 22 months since she’s returned to the speaker’s chair-- an enormous achievement in itself-- Pelosi has centralized power in an unprecedented way. It’s due not just to her own maneuvering, but to a variety of circumstances: a chaotic president, a paralyzed Senate, and a national health emergency that’s spurred the most serious economic crisis in decades." Yep, that and a too big of a tent congressional party-- to the point of near dysfunction-- that no one else could probably hold together for more than a month.

It helps that she's had Trump as an adversary-- and a non-entity as minority leader-- but she has been successful in placating a progressive wing and the Republican wing of her own party-- the New Dems and Blue Dogs-- and in balancing the needs of the spineless careerists (and incrementalists) with the serious reformers and idealists. There are rot gut conservatives, devotees of the status quo and real life socialists in that tent and somehow Pelosi has kept the whole structure from the inevitable collapse.

But Politico's point is more along the lines that "Pelosi will no longer be the party’s leader if Biden wins the White House on Nov. 3, but her influence may only grow. If Democrats also win the Senate, the incoming president is expected to rely heavily on the Democratic agenda passed by the House that’s been blocked by Trump and Mitch McConnell during the last two years. On everything from health care to climate change to money in politics, the markers laid down by House Democrats may prove every bit as important as the policy goals Biden laid out during the campaign. Yet Pelosi also faces questions about her own future. In order to win over a handful of skittish Democrats following the party’s landslide victory in the 2018 midterms, Pelosi committed to serving only two more terms as speaker. That would make the next Congress her last after 20 years in power, and this upcoming election her final appearance on the ballot, unless she goes back on her commitment."

Pelosi, 80, is expected to easily secure another term as speaker in January-- very likely without even a challenge, according to interviews with a dozen House Democrats.

...Even with all of her success, some Democrats have quietly begun considering a post-Pelosi era. It’s a topic that no lawmaker will discuss publicly for fear of backlash from the speaker-- the oldest person to hold the office-- though such discussions continue quietly inside a caucus where roughly 80 percent of Democrats have only served under Pelosi’s leadership.

Nearly a dozen Democrats are clamoring for one of their caucus’ few open leadership posts in January, a perch that many hope could position them for bigger roles in case of a potential exodus by the troika of Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn in the next cycle.

“I think people are starting to think what’s the team going to look like two or four years from now,” said Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI), who is running to be assistant speaker, the No. 4 spot in leadership.

“I think people are beginning to think who will be the next generation of leaders in the Democratic Caucus,” he said. “I think that’s kind of natural.”

There are still Pelosi critics, including roughly a dozen Democrats who opposed her second tour as speaker in 2018. But it’s not even clear how many would vote against her now.

“In the last go around, there was some opposition,” said Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-CA), a longtime Pelosi friend. “There was a lot of talking, but there wasn’t any candidate.”

Eshoo said it’s possible that some of the incoming Democrats from swing districts may stage some sort of opposition to Pelosi next Congress. But Eshoo said it would not weaken her ability to govern.

“Every single one of them will have received her considerable support, monetarily and otherwise,” Eshoo said. “She always says, ‘Just win.’”

“Our confidence in the speaker is high,” added Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA), another member of Pelosi’s leadership team seeking a higher post next year.

While Pelosi is firmly ensconced in the speaker's chair, there is speculation about possible successors whenever she does leave. The list includes Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (NY), the Democratic Caucus chair; Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-CA), a major player in Trump's impeachment; and Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA), whose national profile rose during the police reform debate, among others.

I suppose Caygle, Bresnahan and Ferris are speaking to different people than the ones I speak with, but I have been told in no uncertain terms-- and by Democrats willing to do it-- that if Pelosi tries to shove PAYGO down the Democrats' throats again-- and she will-- that there will definitely be a progressive challenger to her reelection as speaker. Good, there should be. That tents, in fact, needs to collapse if there is ever going to be a breakout from this country's miserable status quo.

And, although Cheri Bustos and the DCCC have carefully recruited and supported a cadre of careerist non-leaders for the class of 2021, there are a number of independent-minded candidates likely to win House seats a week from today, despite the party establishment. Several have told me they may only have one term to accomplish their goals in-- due either to gerrymandering or to the probable 2022 anti-blue wave-- and that they don't plan to use those two years playing nice with a party establishment that is not much more than just better than the Republicans, at least in terms of the systemic reform that these candidates are motivated by.