Arizona Is Ditching The GOP-- But How Much More Conservative Will It Make The Democratic Party?

 

The anti-Trump/anti-Republican tsunami is still building force. You probably saw the newest polls already. YouGov released a batch of 'em yesterday for CBS News: Trump losing in Nevada by 6 points, Trump losing in Michigan by 6 points, Trump, Trump and Biden tied in Iowa. And then there was the ABC News/Washington Post released yesterday showing Trump's disapproval 10 points down and his reelection numbers a startling 12 points down.

And that includes Arizona. Arizona has been a deep blood-red Republican bastion for my whole life. I remember watching the returns roll in while I was a kid concerned about we was then far right extremist Barry Goldwater beating Lyndon Johnson (pre-"Hey, hey, LBJ, How many kids have you killed today?") The popular vote was overwhelming-- 43,127,041 (61.1%) for Johnson and just 27,175,754 whackos (38.5%) for Goldwater. Goldwater won the heart of the Old Confederacy, the 5 dumbest states in America-- Mississippi, Alabama (which didn't even let LBJ on the ballot!), Georgia, South Carolina, Louisiana-- plus Arizona. In Mississippi, where they were still lynching blacks who tried to vote, Goldwater won 87% of the vote. Arizona was much closer, but it was the only non-Confederate state who chose a candidate who was successfully portrayed as much of a nut-job as Trump has been (and is) this cycle. I mean even states like Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska and Utah were in the Democratic column that year! The electoral college gave LBJ quite the landslide-- 486 to 52.

Arizona seems to have come out of that trance now and is starting to look more like neighbors New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, if not southern California (yet). All sides agree Arizona is a swing state this time around. The only reason the polling averages are even close is because GOP fake-polling firm Trafalgar is included in the averages and they manufacture weird Trump wins that Kushner can use to keep his father-in-law calm. Last week's NY Times/Siena poll of likely voters shows Trump losing to Biden by 8 points-- 49-41%. And among Independents, Trump is only getting 28% of the vote, which is what is dooming him.

It should be a good year for Democrats across the state. What a shame that there are virtually no good Democrats running for office. The Democratic establishment saw to that-- from top to bottom. Their Senate candidate, Mark Kelly, isn't even a Democrat and is likely to be one of the 3 most conservative Democrats in the Senate, possibly the most conservative, a slot now held by the other fake Democrat from Arizona, psychopath Kyrsten Sinema. The congressional candidates all stink too. But... "Democrats are on track to win big in Arizona next month-- from the presidential election to the state House," wrote Sabrina Rodriguez for Politico. "And Republicans fear it won’t just be a one-time event but the start of long-term Democratic dominance in the state. It’s a shift that’s been coming since before President Donald Trump’s election but has only been further accelerated over the past four years by his divisive presidency and the Arizona GOP’s evolution from the party of John McCain to that of Trump. Now, Republicans are reckoning with signs that the party has taken on a direction that won’t play well in Arizona in 2020-- or ever. With that, Democrats could cement control of state politics, as they have in other suburban-heavy states, like Colorado and Virginia. A win by Democratic Senate nominee Mark Kelly would put both of Arizona’s seats in Democratic hands after decades of GOP control. All Democrats need is two seats in the state House and three seats in the state Senate to flip the state legislature. Turning both chambers would be a first for Democrats in more than 50 years."

Democrats, yes-- but not the way most of us understand "Democrats." Kyrsten Sinema, for example, has the worst voting record of any Democrat in the Senate-- just as she previously had the worst voting record of any Democrat in the House. Her grade isn't just "F" from Progressive Punch; her lifetime crucial vote score is 45.39, reflecting the fact that she votes with the GOP more frequently against progressive positions than with Democrats for them. And, like I said, it won't surprise me if Mark Kelly turns out worse.

“It’s Republicans’ own fault this is happening. It’s their unwillingness to govern,” said Chuck Coughlin, a veteran GOP strategist in Arizona. “They’ve always been the party that wants to put together electoral coalitions to address policy issues. And under the party of Trump, you’re just vilifying people, not coming up with ideas.”

“Like Sen. John McCain would say, 'It's always darkest before it's totally black.' And, in this case, black is blue. I hope the party will do some soul-reflecting,” Coughlin added.

Republicans will continue to control number of statewide positions, including the governorship and the state attorney general's office. But a big night for Democrats could see the GOP lose the presidential vote for the first time since 1996, a Senate seat, both chambers of the state legislature and control of the state Corporation Commission.

Arizona’s state races haven’t gotten so much attention given the millions of dollars being pumped into the presidential matchup and expensive race between appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally and Kelly, which could help tip the Senate over to Democrats. But it’s the possibility of flipping that state legislature that has many Republicans thinking about the long-term effects of Trump’s GOP.

The Republican Party needs to understand that there’s a large number of us voting Democrat all down the ballot because of Trump, and they need to realize that their choice to blindly follow him will impact the state politics,” said Daniel Barker, a former Arizona Court of Appeals Judge who started Arizona Republicans Who Believe In Treating Others With Respect, a PAC that’s supporting Biden.

“We need to change direction,” he added.

The November election will provide the first indication of whether Arizona is becoming Democratic-leaning territory, like Colorado and Virginia-- or a perennial swing state, like Florida. The state’s growing Latino population and shifting attitudes among college-educated white voters across the state have been a boon to Democrats. Almost a third of the state is Latino-- and while only about half of them are expected to vote, they are likely to break heavily for Democrats: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema secured 70 percent Latino support in her 2018 run.

“Latino voter turnout has been growing, and then there’s moderate white voters that are breaking toward Biden. And, really, both have been needed to create this Democratic wave,” said Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who served in the state House for three years and now represents a safe Democratic congressional district in Phoenix.

Voter registration in Arizona is also a bright spot for Democrats. Republicans' advantage has been shrinking for the past three election cycles. Republicans now hold a lead of fewer than 100,000 voters. Compared to 2016, the GOP share of the electorate is flat at 35 percent, while the Democratic share has ticked up 2 points, to 32 percent.

Gallego said he’s optimistic Arizona’s path toward becoming reliably blue will mirror neighboring Colorado. And he argues it’s been a long time coming, dating back to when then-GOP Gov. Jan Brewer signed SB 1070, the controversial “show me your papers” law, in 2010. But the state wasn’t ready to move more toward Democrats then because the Democratic Party had largely ignored Arizona in Obama’s 2008 race against McCain, a beloved figure in the state, Gallego said.

“Trump really sped this up and gave [moderates and independents] a good reason to move away from the Republican Party,” Gallego said.

Arizona's shift left has caught Republicans mostly flat-footed, struggling to adapt to the new political realities. After McSally's loss in 2018, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey appointed McSally to the state's other Senate seat. And Republicans chose a new state party chair: Kelli Ward, the far-right candidate who primaried McCain in 2016 and lost to McSally in the 2018 Senate primary.

“I don’t think anyone would’ve guessed three years ago there’d be a battleground for control of the lower and upper chamber" of the state legislature, said Mike Noble, the chief of research at the Republican polling firm OH Predictive Insights in Phoenix. "It’s mind-blowing."

Noble said it’s unlikely that Arizona will swing from reliably GOP to Democratic in such a short time, but Republicans need to appeal to the middle of the electorate to win there.

“Right now, Arizona is a battleground primarily due to the suburban shift. And remember: Arizona is the home of Barry Goldwater and John McCain-- moderate Republicans," he said, a reference to Goldwater's libertarian streak and McCain's "maverick" persona. "It’s really not a red state like Alabama, but an independent state when it comes to the electorate."

Republican groups acknowledge that it’s a tough fight to keep majorities in both the state House and Senate, spending almost double what Democrats have in advertising. Republicans have spent $671,000 to Democrats’ $371,000, according to numbers provided by Advertising Analytics. The Republican State Leadership Committee also has Arizona on its top targets list, despite it not being a redistricting priority.

Meanwhile, Democrats have focused on four target races in the state House and six in the state Senate. Republican and Democratic strategists agree it’s most likely Democrats will win the state House, but Republicans will retain control of the state Senate-- though a full flip is certainly possible.

“Republicans are playing defense, and [Democrats] really could be handed the ball here,” Coughlin said.

Doug Ducey's pandemic response was pure Trumpism-- and Arizonans paid the price. Ducey has killed 5,759 Arizonans, the 11th worst state record. And there have been 30,909 cases per million Arionznas, the 10th worst in America, all 10 being red states were public health officials were ignored while people got sick and all decisions were made based on Trump's political agenda. 791 Arizonans are dead per million in the population-- 9th worst in the country. And by the way, Arizona's population is 14th biggest so, clearly Ducey and his Republican puppet legislature was doing something very, very wrong.