Trump Campaign Faces Reality And Gives Up On Arizona

2020's kiss of death in Arizona

Arizona has been a deep red state for a long time. The only statewide Democrat-- Kyrsten Simena, elected in 2018-- isn't a Democrat by any other standard except that she has a "D" next to her name. By any metric, she's the worst Democrat in the Senate, with a more Republican voting record than Doug Jones (AL) and Joe Manchin (WV), who represent far redder states. But Arizona is plenty red. Aside from the governor, Doug Ducey, being a full-bore Trumpist, the GOP controls both Houses of the state legislature. In presidential elections, Arizona was a strongly Democratic state when it was clear that the Democratic Party stood for the working class. Roosevelt won all 4 times he ran, Alf Landon scoring just 26.9% against him in 1936. Arizona stuck with the Democrats in 1948 (Truman) and then flipped entirely, especially after the Democrats tried enlarging their tent so much that they became unable to define themselves in a way that appealed to the working class. Eisenhower, Nixon Goldwater, Ford, Reagan, both Bushs (both times), McCain, Romney and Trump all won. The only Republican to lose was Dole in 1996 when Ross Perot drew 8% of the vote and Bill Clinton won with 46.5% against Dole's 44.3%.

Trump's win in 2016 was 1,252,401 (48.1%) 1,161,167 to (44.6%), a little wobbly, but he won 11 of the state's 15 counties, including massive Maricopa County, where Trump took 49.1% of the vote to Hillary's 45.7%. This cycle, everyone agrees that Arizona is a top swing state. The Real Clear Politics polling average-- which includes fake Republican polls from GOP operation Trafalgar Group-- shows Biden ahead by 5 points. The most recent Arizona poll show Biden at 49% and Trump at 39% among registered voters (including leaners).

The Fox poll indicates why Arizonans are giving up on Trump. The issue he does worst on against Biden is one very much on the mind of Arizonans: the pandemic. When asked who would do a better job on the coronavirus only 36% of Arizona voters pick Trump. High-growth Arizona is the 14th most populated state, but has the 7th most cases of COVID-19. Yesterday, Arizona reported 835 new cases, bringing the state total to 205,516, or 28,235 cases per million Arizonans. How bad is that? Louisiana, Florida and Mississippi are worse, but every other state has done better. Why? Trump, Ducey and the Republican controlled legislature made it clear from the beginning they will deal with the pandemic through extreme right ideology rather than through science of public health. As a result 5,207 Arizonans are dead so far-- the 8th worst COVID death rate in the country... and rising far more rapidly than 5 of the states above it.

How are the Republicans confronting this threat to 11 crucial electoral votes that Trump cannot afford to lose? On Friday, Jim Small, writing for the Arizona Mirror, reported that the Trump campaign is going off the airwaves the day after tomorrow and may not resume television advertising until early voting begins in early October. Trump had already stopped advertising in the blue-leaning Tucson area two weeks ago! Now he's going dark in the rest of the state as well.

On Thursday, records filed with the Federal Communications Commission by Phoenix-area television stations showed that the Trump campaign cancelled all of its ads between Sept. 8 and Sept. 14. The air time totaled approximately $580,000 in the Phoenix media market, which includes most of the state except for the areas surrounding Tucson and Yuma.

A campaign spokeswoman confirmed Trump was suddenly going dark in a state where he has consistently trailed Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the polls-- a state that has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once since 1948.

“With a permanent presence in the state since 2016, Arizonans have heard from the Trump campaign for years and know about the wins President Trump’s America First agenda has delivered for them in just one term,” said Samantha Zager.

A Trump campaign source who was not authorized to speak on the record said that the campaign’s advertising strategy is following the early voting map. Because Arizona early voting doesn’t begin until Oct. 7, the source indicated advertising here was being halted.

This is bad enough for Trump, but it is also a disaster for the GOP incumbent, Martha McSally, who has attached herself to him at the hip. McSally's reelect numbers are worse than Trump's and she doesn't have the resources her Democratic opponent Mark Kelly does. Kelly has spent $24,516,845 to McSally's $19,947,472 after having raised $45,735,788 to her $30,018,096. He has around double what she does to spend between now and election day. McConnell and his allies have spent around $7 million trying to help McSally but Schumer and his allies have spent around $10 million on behalf of Kelly. That same Fox News poll that shows Biden leading Trump 49-39%, has Kelly up over McSally 56-39%, a seemingly insurmountable lead that has continued to grow,

Most observers see McSally as a dead man walking. The same may well be true of the Republican majorities in the state legislature. Democrats need just two seats in the House and three seats in the Senate to flip the state legislature entirely. Democrats have 4 state Senate candidates and 6 state House candidates-- including popular Flagstaff mayor Coral Evans-- with reasonable chances to flip their districts from red to blue. Coconino County supervisor Art Babbott is also seeking a state House seat, running as an independent.