In January Will We Be Partying Like It's 1876? Is Biden Ready To Reprise The Samuel Tilden Character?

 

Ulysses S. Grant was getting ready to leave the White House in 1876, when America experienced one of its most divisive presidential elections in history-- Samuel Tilden (D) vs Rutherford B. Hayes (R). There was an historically humongous turnout and Tilden won-- 4,288,546 (50.9%) to 4,034,311 (47.9%). But then it got sticky. [NOTE: The Democrats were the bad guys in those days and the Republicans were in the role, more or less, of today's Democratic Party, the lesser evil.]

Tilden won 184 electoral votes to Hayes' 165, with 19 votes from 3 former Confederate states-- Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina-- in dispute. Tilden won all 3 but the Republicans claimed fraud. Meanwhile, the Republicans expanded their control of the Senate and flipped some Democratic seats in the House-- but not enough to win control. The Republicans agreed to sell out the newly freed slaves (Compromise of 1877) and allow the 19 electoral votes + one disputed vote in Oregon to be counted as Hayes wins-- which they weren't-- in return for the end of Reconstruction and the end of black voting rights. That gave Hayes a one electoral vote victory (185-184), a farce. Imagine how African-American voters in teh South, basically a solid Republican bloc-- felt about the "compromise!"

Will 2020 turn into another one like 1876? The Republicans are counting on it. In his Popular Information newsletter yesterday, Judd Legum wrote about how Pennsylvania Republicans are getting ready to do for Trump what South Carolina did for Hayes back then.

On Sunday night, Politico assembled an A-Team-- John Bresnahan, Kyle Cheney and Heather Caygle-- to game out how House Democrats can respond to a Trumpist attempt to steal the election via bedlam on a state level and a vote in Congress. Pelosi, they reported, is taking it very seriously. If neither Biden nor Trump wins the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, each state delegation gets one vote. Right now, the Republicans have a majority in 26 delegations, the Democrats control 22, while Pennsylvania is tied and Michigan has 7 Democrats, 6 Republicans and one Justin Amash (a conservative libertarian who detests Trump).

No one, not a single person, has ever been treated worse than Trump

BUT... it's the newly elected Congress that will vote, not the outgoing Congress. Democrats are making a play to flip two of the one-seat "delegations," Montana and Alaska, as well as ending the tie in Pennsylvania and picking up a seat in Michigan. There's an outside chance Democrats could flip Florida, where the GOP has 14 seats to the Democrats' 13. The easiest seat to have won, FL-25 (Mario Diaz Balart), the Florida Democratic Party/DCCC braintrust decided not to contest because... well, you know what congenital losers they are. But Adam Christensen looks like he's ready for an upset in north-central Florida, in the seat Ted Yoho is abandoning and if the wave is big enough Alan Cohn, Cindy Banyai, Pam Keith and Margaret Good each has a shot. If Floridians mark their ballots with Trumpist Governor Ron DeSantis in mind-- the delegation will definitely be blue. Texas could flip but that would be a real stretch. Dems would have to hold 19 seats and right now they have 13. Could they flip 6? Not likely but Mike Siegel looks like he's going to beat McCaul, Julie Oliver looks like a winner over Williams, Wendy Davis is ahead of Chip Roy and Gina Ortiz Jones looks like a winner for the open seat Will Hurd is giving up. Just two more and the delegation flips. Candace Valenzuela could win the open Kenny Marchant seat. Sri Kulkarni has a shot at the open Pete Olson seat. Donna Imam has a chance against John Carter if the wave is big enough and it's conceivable that Lulu Seikaly beats Van Taylor. So... there's a chance. Help push Texas along here-- and Florida along here.

A battle inside the House could be brutal, even more politically bare-knuckled than Trump and Senate Republicans pushing through a Supreme Court nominee days before the election. In some states, a single seat could decide the partisan makeup of a delegation. There could be extended legal challenges over declaring victors in House races, as national party leaders and their legal teams dive headlong into the results for individual races at the county or even precinct level.

Pelosi, in a Sunday letter to House Democrats, urged them to consider whether the House might be pulled into deciding who is president when determining where to focus resources on winning seats in November. This could lead to more concerted efforts by Democrats to win in states such as Montana and Alaska-- typically Republican turf but where Democrats have been competitive statewide. In these states, Democratic victories could flip an entire delegation with a single upset House victory.

“The Constitution says that a candidate must receive a majority of the state delegations to win,” Pelosi wrote. “We must achieve that majority of delegations or keep the Republicans from doing so.”

Pelosi has also raised the issue repeatedly in recent weeks with her leadership team. Other senior House Democrats told Politico they’d heard about these concerns from colleagues in recent weeks.

“We’re trying to win every seat in America, but there are obviously some places where a congressional district is even more important than just getting the member into the U.S. House of Representatives,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), a constitutional lawyer.

...Under the Constitution, the winner of the presidential election isn’t officially chosen until Congress certifies the Electoral College vote total on Jan. 6, 2021. That vote comes several days after the newly elected Congress is sworn in, meaning the delegation totals will change to reflect the winners of House races in November.

If neither Biden nor Trump has secured the 270 electoral votes required to win, the newly seated House delegations will then cast votes to determine a winner. States whose delegations reach a tie vote are not counted.

But it’s more than a math equation. If the House is asked to resolve an Electoral College stalemate, the country will be witnessing one of harshest exercises of raw power in history. If Democrats retain control of the House, they could opt against seating potential members whose elections remain contested, even if state officials say otherwise.

If you want to lend a hand with this strategy, I'd recommend a targeted, strategic contribution at the page the thermometer will take you to for these five progressive candidates: Adam Christensen (FL-03), Jon Hoadley (MI-06), JD Scholten (IA-04), Julie Oliver (TX-25) and Mike Siegel (TX-10). How about $25 split evenly between all five? Any one of these races could make the difference between the House electing Biden or Trump.