How Big An Issue Is Climate Change? Just Ask Candidates In Florida

A lot went into Markey's big win over Kennedy in Massachusetts Tuesday but Climate Change and the Green New Deal-- co-authored by Markey and passively supported by Kennedy-- was probably the single biggest factor. Perhaps, come November, it will be as big a factor is one of the most Climate-threatened states, Florida. The Environmental Defense Fund spent $1.7 million on the ad above, running it for a week in the Tampa Bay area, where there are a number of red hot races, from President to state legislature.

Kelly Hayes, writing for FloridaPolitics.com, reported that a new poll showed a 7-point swing in favor of Biden in the Tampa media market after a week of TV play. The Tampa media market, Florida's second largest, includes Hillsborough, Pinellas, Citrus, Pasco, Hernando, Manatee, Sarasota and Polk counties

Before the ad campaign, polling from AGL Research had shown President Donald Trump leading in the critical market. That poll, released July 6, showed a competitive margin between the two candidates-- at the time, Biden trailed by just 3 points in the Tampa market. However, the July poll showed Biden with a 15-point lead in Hillsborough County. Biden also held a 5-point lead in Pinellas County.

After the run of the ad, which criticizes Trump’s leadership on environmental issues and his declarations that climate change is “a hoax,” Trump now trails Biden by 4 points in the Tampa market, according to polling released last Wednesday.

“Florida is the most valuable swing state and the Tampa area is an essential piece of the electoral puzzle,” Vice President of ALG Research Kevin Atkins said in a news release. “Tampa area voters have felt the impacts of sea-level rise, stronger storms, and issues like Red Tide. It’s no surprise these voters are souring on a President who calls climate change a hoax.”

Trump won this market by roughly 8.5 points in 2016, according to the memo, although Hillary Clinton took Hillsborough County.

In the poll completed after the ad aired, the number of voters who are worried about climate change-- and voters do not approve of Trump’s handling of the issue-- increased. Nearly two-thirds of voters in the Tampa media market report being worried about climate change in the most recent poll, a plus-10 increase since mid-May, according to the Aug. 26 polling memo.

Additionally, 56% of voters gave Trump a negative rating on his performance in regard to environmental issues. About 40% of voters gave a positive rating.

Overall, across the Tampa Media Market, Trump’s favorability has dropped 10 points-- the President is now losing against Biden 45-49 in this area, a 7-point shift since having a 3-point lead in May, according to the memo.

Climate messages resonate with voters in the Tampa media market, according to EDF. Florida is still a dominant swing state, and recent polling shows Biden leading statewide.

Dr. Janelle Christensen is chair of the Florida Democratic Environmental Caucus and she and her team are responsible for recruiting and supporting more than two dozen environmental activists to run for state legislative seats that the Florida Democratic Party has been willing to cede to the GOP without a fight. She told me that most of the candidates her group recruited are now co-creators and signatories on the Florida Climate and Economic Defense Initiative. Overall 1/3 of the state legislative candidates have signed on Initiative. She also pointed out that "The younger candidates took the lead: Rock Aboujaoude, Anslem Weber, Heather Hunter, Rachel Brown, Katheryn Norman... The environment is an issue that Florida voters of all parties care about. Some are just more willing to be tricked into believing Republicans will actually do something for the environment, even though they have done nothing but hurt it for the past 20 years. When one looks at the legislation and the votes, it is clear only Democrats are willing to take action on ensure that the environment, economy and our health are cared for in a responsible way."

Many of the Florida Democratic candidates running for office up and down the ballot this year have told me the single biggest motivator for them jumping into electoral politics was the Climate Crisis. I asked several candidates who have seen the ad to tell me how voters in their districts are reacting to Climate as an issue. From the very first time I spoke with Katherine Norman, the progressive state Senate candidate going up against Joe Gruters, one of the state's most powerful Republican Climate deniers, she wanted to discuss the overwhelming urgency of dealing with Climate change. Again, yesterday, she told me that "We are seeing unprecedented momentum because we have decided to contest previously uncontested districts, so we can expect everything to be groundbreaking. We are building infrastructure for decades because our citizens are begging for the truth. It is unprecedented for America to deal with a leader with 70% fake followers and who regular lies with impunity on National TV. His supporters are also forced to spout straight lies to support the president against science, morality, and national interest."

Norman has tied the contrast between Gruters and herself on Climate to other salient issues for her districts voters as well, "My opponent," she told me, "seconded the president’s nomination at the RNC, in his speech he called the virus the ‘Wuhan Virus’-- this kind of rhetoric is not just some slight to China, this is a dangerous and deliberate attempt to frame the coronavirus as some absurd extension of the presidents ongoing mismanagement of our relationship with China. It is an elected leader attempting to blame the deaths of Americans at the hands of this administration on another country, and fuel the xenophobia that energizes his base. The GOP has demonstrated countless times that they will lie to the American people and every day we have more and more Republicans speak out against the egregious deterioration of our democracy at the hands of this administration. Here in Florida candidates like myself are incredibly proud to be offering a compassionate, transparent alternative for voters this year."

Bob Lynch is the Democratic candidate in a Miami-Dade swing district the Democratic Party prefers not to run in. Lynch is making them uncomfortable, something he doesn't shy away from. "In my district in particular," he told me, "which is 90% Hispanic, Climate Change and protecting the environment is an incredibly important issue. Around 75% of Latino voters, nationwide, support efforts to address climate change. A lot of Miami-Dade County’s immigrant population came from countries that have experience major problems due to climate change, others are in fact climate refugees. Our state, and county in particular are heavily reliant on our tourism industry. The Covid-19 should be a wake up call for us as to what the perils of not addressing climate change are. The pandemic has led to a 60% reduction in tourism in Florida. Imagine what will happen if we continue to see sea level rise that floods our cities even on sunny days? We have a massive fish kill in Biscayne Bay. Our beaches often are closed due to fecal matter in our ocean. We need to upgrade our old septic systems to sewer lines before they poison our ground water. If DeSantis and Trump allow offshore drilling and we wind up with an oil spill? It will cripple our tourism/hospitality industry even worse than Covid has. People are starting to wake up, but the Republicans refuse to even mention climate change, let alone address it. They continue to offer corporate tax breaks in exchange for lining their pockets to companies that pollute all of our waters. It is sickening."