How Badly Will Trump Hurt Republican Candidates In North Carolina And Wisconsin?

Trump Snowball Effect by Nancy Ohanian

New polling from CNN shows Trump losing among likely voters in both Wisconsin and North Carolina. Trump is down 3 points in North Carolina and 10 points in Wisconsin. Although Trump won both states in 2016, Wisconsin had a statewide election since then which was disastrous for the GOP. Bernie/Biden-backed Jill Karofsky ousted Trump-backed state Supreme Court justice Daniel Kelly by an astonishingly wide margin-- 855,573 (55.21%) to 693,134 (44.73%). In North Carolina, Trump's 50.5% to 46.7% win over Hillary was marred when Democrat Roy Cooper defeated Trump ally Pat McCrory 2,281,155 (49.0%) to 2,276,383 (48.9%).

Wisconsin

CNN reported that among likely Wisconsin voters, Biden is widely viewed as more apt to unite the country (55% to 36%) and handle racial inequality in the US (55% to 38%). He is more trusted by a 13-point margin on the coronavirus outbreak (54% to 41%). He is more often seen as having a clear plan to solve the country's problems (49% to 43%) and has the edge on keeping Americans safe from harm (50% to 45%). Wisconsin likely voters split evenly on who would better handle the economy (49% Trump to 48% Biden) and who has the stamina and sharpness to be president (47% Trump to 44% Biden)." Trump's job approval is underwater in both states, by 8 points in North Carolina and 15 points in Wisconsin.

About a third of likely voters in each state "express deep worry about the coronavirus outbreak in their community." Yesterday, North Carolina reported 1,106 new COVID cases, bringing the state total to 186,887 (17,819 cases per million residents). Wisconsin reported 1,348 new cases, bringing their total to 91,304 (15,681 cases per million residents). Both states are in the midst of harsh spikes.

North Carolina

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race is a toss-up in the poll, with 47% of likely voters saying they back the Democrat Cal Cunningham and 46% for incumbent Republican Thom Tillis. Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has a lead in his bid for reelection, 53% support him, 44% his Republican challenger Dan Forest.

A majority of Wisconsin likely voters (53%) say they plan to cast their ballots in-person on Election Day, while 27% say they want to vote by mail and 19% by using an in-person absentee ballot. North Carolina's likely voters, however, are far more likely to plan to vote early or absentee, with just 38% saying they aim to vote on Election Day. A plurality, 42%, say they will vote early in-person, and 18% say they aim to vote by mail.

In both states, however, preferences on how to cast one's ballot are politicized. Less than a third of Biden supporters plan to vote on Election Day in either state (28% in Wisconsin, 22% in North Carolina), while among Trump backers, majorities in both places say they will vote on November 3 (83% in Wisconsin, 57% in North Carolina). The overall share saying they plan to vote on Election Day in North Carolina is larger than the share who voted that way in 2016, and that's mostly because of Trump's supporters. In 2016, about a third of votes in the state were cast on Election Day. Of all the votes Trump received, 37% came from in-person voting on Election Day.

New Wisconsin polling from Morning Consult was released at the end of the day yesterday. It shows Trump lagging Biden by 9 points: 51% to 42%, Trump with downward momentum.

I asked both Blue America-endorsed Wisconsin state Assembly candidates, Jacob Malinowski in the Milwaukee suburbs (next to beet red Waukesha) and Emily Voight (south of Green Bay on the northeast shore of Lake Winnebago) if Trump's loss of support statewide is resonating in their own races. Emily reminded us that "Wisconsin is a deeply gerrymandered state, one of the most gerrymandered states in the country. Even though my district, Assembly District 3, is heavily gerrymandered in favor of a Republican, our campaign is getting a lot of positive responses. I've had moderate Republicans and Independents contacting me, telling me they will vote for me because they do not like how the Republicans have been mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic. They have praised me on calling out my opponent's indiscriminate covert racism on his personal FaceBook posts. Wisconsin is truly a swing state, and when we feel that the administration in DC has gone too far one way, we tend to vote the opposite. And while it was an uncontested primary in August, our campaign received 108 more votes than the incumbent. I think Wisconsin is ready for a change!"

Malinowski noted that Trump's "apparent underperformance in Wisconsin will directly help down-ballot candidates like me all across the Milwaukee suburbs. Sen. Baldwin and Justice Karofsky both way over-performed Hilary Clinton's margins, which means that plenty of folks are willing to vote for left-leaning candidates. If President Trump loses Wisconsin by the 6ish points he's at now, we've got a real chance to flip some of these state legislative seats."

For some valuable context, we'll wrap this up with a few words from our old friend state Senator Chris Larson, the guy I know who knows the most about Wisconsin electoral politics:

Wisconsin Republicans are stuck in a bind. Many had hoped their party would have turned the page on Donald Trump after his much-anticipated, never-arriving loss of 2016. Then, they could have pretended the xenophobic, racist, mysogninistic views he expressed were unique only to him and not reflected in years of policies that whispered just as much.

Instead, Trump won. While the country has had to pay the biggest price for his self-serving malfeasance, the Republican Party has had to pay the political cost. Paul Ryan cashed in his spine to Trump and refused to stand up to him. Ryan was rewarded for with outcry from Wisconsin and was forced to abandon his once-safe congressional seat, announcing his retirement just days after it was disclosed $4.75 million was already raised by Randy Bryce, the blue-collar, cancer-surviving, union-card-holding veteran running against him.

Former Governor Scott Walker is now remembered as the guy who dropped out of the presidential race in an attempt to rally other institutional Republicans to rally against Trump. Instead, he whiplashed back into line for Trump after the primary. As a reward, Walker was tossed from office in the ensuing backlash against the party that surrendered all authority to a morally and financially bankrupt reality star.

The Republican Party is more strained in Wisconsin than it's been in the last decade. While Trump continues to implode and be his own worst enemy on the campaign trail, he leaves no choice for Republicans but to also tie themselves to the mass of the sinking ship.

America is worse off than it was 4 years ago in terms of a crashed economy, record job losses, a heating planet, and the worst response to the pandemic on the planet. Each of these have been amplified in my home state and Republicans incumbents are being called to atone for 6 months of inaction in the fact of mounting crises. Wisconsinites demand more than echoing FoxNews and trying to "trigger the libs." We've seen family farms close at a rate of two per day and the response from Trump's Ag Secretary was to spike the ball in their face as they continued to favor corporate farms and trade policies that hurt the dairy industry.

While smarter Republicans try to pretend they haven't seen Trump's latest tweets/interviews/speeches, some of the newer candidates have found themselves unbound to hold back on their racism.

Every state Rep is up and the ballot with Trump and Democrats have momentum going into the final stretch. With the census around the corner, there is a genuine opportunity to make lasting change to finally address our biggest problems with bold, progressive policies.