Trump's Base Has Started Cracking In California-- Why That Matters

Some of the Trump base is waking up-- drawing by Nancy Ohanian

A new poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies shows that Trump’s support among Republicans and other conservative voters in California has finally begun eroding, largely due yo his mishandling of the pandemic and to the economic downturn he has presided over. In an analysis of the poll for the L.A. Times, David Lauter wrote that Trump lagging Biden by 39 points-- 67-28%-- isn't what's remarkable. What is is that "approval of Trump’s work as president has declined among groups that until now have supported him."

In 2016, California's 55 electoral voters went to Hillary after she trounced Trump by a record-breaking 7,362,490 (61.6%) to 3,916,309 (32.8%). In November, California voters will break that record again. "And," wrote Lauter, "the share of Californians who approve of Trump’s performance in office, which has held steady in the mid-to-low 30% range for nearly his entire tenure, has now ticked downward to just 29%. That’s consistent with other polls nationally and in battleground states that show a nationwide tide lifting Biden, swelling his margin in states like California, moving him solidly ahead in close-fought states like Pennsylvania and Michigan and making him potentially competitive in states that Trump won more handily last time, such as Texas and Georgia.

“There was a question of whether his support was already so low in the state that it couldn’t go lower,” said Berkeley political scientist Eric Schickler, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies. The poll “shows the answer is no.”

Aides to both candidates believe the biggest factor in Trump’s decline is voters’ fear of the coronavirus and belief that the administration has botched its handling of the pandemic. The poll provides further evidence of that.

About two-thirds of the state’s voters see the health threat from the coronavirus getting worse. They back Biden 84% to 11%. By contrast, about 1 in 8 say the health threat is getting less serious; they back Trump 87% to 10%. About 1 in 5 voters say the threat from the virus is about the same as it’s been; they’re closely divided.

...Opinions of Trump have gotten worse since the winter. A Berkeley IGS poll in January showed 33% of the state’s voters approved of the way he is handling his job as president. In the most recent poll, that’s dropped to 29%, with 71% disapproving, including 63% who say they “strongly” disapprove.

Since the vast majority of Democrats already disapproved of Trump, the drop in approval comes mostly among Republicans and nonpartisan voters. Among voters who identified themselves as moderate conservatives, for example, approval dropped 11 points, from 76% in January to 65% now.

Erosion of Trump’s support among moderate conservatives is another trend seen nationwide in recent surveys.

In California, the decline shows up in the more conservative regions of the state. In the Inland Empire, approval of Trump dropped 8 points, from 43% in January to 35% in the current poll. In the Central Valley, it dropped 7 points, from 44% in January to 37% now.

“There’s evidence nationally of a decline for Trump in more rural areas where the coronavirus has spread,” Schickler said. The poll seems to be “showing a similar thing here.”

Overall, 70% of the state’s voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, 28% see him favorably. By contrast, 56% of the state’s voters have a favorable view of Biden, compared with 40% who have an unfavorable view. In Los Angeles, 24% have a favorable view of Trump, and 60% have a favorable view of Biden.

About 15% of voters have an unfavorable view of both candidates. That group supports Biden by 5 to 1. That’s a big shift from 2016, when voters nationwide who disliked both candidates broke heavily in Trump’s favor.

Biden has a huge lead in the state not only because Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans in California, but also because the former vice president has a big lead among non-partisan voters and has made inroads among traditionally Republican groups while Trump has almost no traction among traditionally Democratic groups.

For example, Biden gets about one-quarter of California voters who call themselves “somewhat conservative”-- about 1 in 6 California voters. By contrast, Trump gets almost no support among voters who call themselves “somewhat liberal,” who make up about 1 in 5 of the state’s voters.

The state’s nonpartisan voters back Biden by about 4 to 1, the poll found.

Biden gets backing from white voters, 66% to 31%; from Blacks, 87% to 7%; from Asian and Pacific Islanders, 72% to 21%; and from Latinos, 63% to 30%, the poll found.

About 15% of Latinos who primarily speak Spanish remain undecided, the poll found. That’s consistent with past elections in which Spanish-dominant Latinos, many of whom are relatively new citizens, have tended to tune in to the election later than many other voters. The group tends to be heavily Democratic, suggesting that Biden’s support from them is likely to grow as the election nears.

In liberal California, even white men without college educations-- Trump’s strong point nationwide-- back Biden. The former vice president leads among that group 54% to 42%, the poll found. That pales compared to Biden’s support among college-educated women, however. They back him 79% to 17%.

Evangelical Christians, who are among Trump’s most steadfast backers nationwide, form one of the few major demographic groups in the state that gives majority support to the president. California voters who say they are evangelicals back Trump 56% to 39%, the poll found.

Trump, who has pitched multiple campaign appeals to racial prejudice, also gets strong support from the roughly 30% of the state’s voters who disapprove of the Black Lives Matter movement. Those who disapprove of the movement back Trump over Biden 83% to 11%, the poll found. The much larger group that approves of the movement backs Biden 93% to 3%.

Among California's 53 members of Congress, there are now just 7 Republicans left (+ an open red seat being strongly contested by Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar and career criminal Darrell Issa). These are the Republican incumbents are their districts' most recent PVIs:

CA-01- Doug LaMalfa-- R+11
CA-04- Tom McClintock-- R+10
CA-08- Paul Cook (retiring)-- R+9
CA-22- Devin Nunes-- R+8
CA-23- Kevin McCarthy-- R+14
CA-25- Mike Garcia-- even PVI, although Dems have a registration advantage
CA-42- Ken Calvert-- R+9
CA-50- open-- R+11

The Democrats lost CA-25 in a special election to fill Katie Hill's seat, when she abruptly quit in the midst of a sordid sex scandal. They lost because they tried to find a Katie Hill clone and succeeded to will in that, reminding the voters what they didn't want. Too many Democratic voters stayed away and a blue district flipped red. In November Democrats are running the same miserable, conservative candidate who lost but she is likely to be swept into office in the anti-Trump tsunami.

It will be really hard dislodging any of the other Republicans just because of a wave election. Extraordinary candidates are what a re needed. Unfortunately, California just has two running this cycle, Audrey Denney in CA-01 and Liam O'Mara in CA-42. I asked them each if they see signs of erosion to Trump's base in their own races and how that is impacting their November prospects.

Liam O'Mara's district is the red part of Riverside County. In 2016, the district voted Trump 53.4% to 41.4%-- way out of sync with the rest of Southern California. Liam told me that "There has indeed been slippage in Trump's support among independents, and that will be crucial to our chances. It is the reason NPPs have been central to our outreach, along with minor party members. His popularity with Republicans remains unparalleled, but they make up just 37% of the electorate, which means Crooked Ken Calvert needs NPPs to win. And some he will win, because there are some so red they don't think the GOP is faschy enough. But others are moderates who don't feel a tribal connexion to either party; some are civil libertarians who are troubled by Calvert's authoritarian sensibilities, and some are progressives and leftists who disdain the corruption of the major parties. A few of my strongest supporters so far are independents, in fact, and our outreach has been picking up voters left and right."

"The pandemic and the economic depression that resulted," he continued, "are going to be decisive issues in this district. Trump and the GOP are working to spin it all as the Dems' fault, saying we shouldn't have shut down at all, it's just the flu, etc. And Calvert is bragging in his telephone surveys that he's voted with Trump 98% of the time. If we let the Republicans flip their incompetence into an issue with Democrats, they can hold some of these seats. This is why we need to run more candidates who know economics and can speak to kitchen-table issues. As long as we can continue to make those calls and reach those voters, we can knock Calvert out and send another progressive to DC. I hope more people will consider supporting the efforts of my amazing field team and donate to the race. The 42nd has never been closer to flipping."

The 2020 Bluer California thermometer above will help you do just that. Audrey Denney is finding a different dynamic in her northeast California district, where Trump is still more popular than the rest of the state... although voters want an independent-minded Member of Congress, not a knee-jerk Trumpist. "In CA-01 we’re seeing voters who historically vote Republican ready to vote for me," she told me today. "Our recent polling data shows educated Republican men, people over 65, and high school educated Republican women all moving away from LaMalfa and towards me-- even in the most concentrated conservative parts of the district. Digging into the data-- voters are willing to vote for someone new for several reasons, depending on demographics. We are seeing voters shift because of the congressman and administration’s handling of the pandemic as well as voters responding to my messages about people over partisanship and messages on women’s equality in the workplace."