COVID Is Bringing Down Trump

A new poll from ABC News and the Washington Post shows that Trump's handling of the pandemic is viewed favorably by far fewer American voters than it was previously. In March 51% approval. As the realization of his incompetence and narcissistic perspective kicked in, by May, the number had failed to 46%. Today it's 38%, which still seems awfully high considering how horrifying the results have been. "Only 34 percent of Americans place a great deal or good amount of trust in what he says about it, while 64 percent trust him not so much or-- in the case of nearly half the public-- not at all. There’s also a disconnect in terms of priorities, with Americans by 63-33 percent-- again nearly 2-1-- saying it’s more important to control the spread of the virus than to restart the economy, a goal Trump has stressed. That 30-point preference for controlling the spread has widened from 20 points in late May."



But what I found especially interesting was how even among self-identified Republicans, trust in Trump to handle the pandemic has slipped significantly. In May, while most independents and Democrats had lost whatever faith they had in his ability to handle the emergency, 90% of Republicans still had confidence in him. By yesterday the Republican cohort was down to 79%-- an 11 point drop.

On Wednesday the U.S. reported 72,005 new cases. On Thursday it was another +73,388 new cases and yesterday another 74,987, bringing the total a horrifying 3,770,021-- 11,390 per million Americans, the worst, by far, of any developed country. By way of comparison the worst-hit European countries show 7,610 cases per million Swedes, 6,573 cases per million Spaniards, 5,202 cases per million Russians, 4,319 cases per million Brits, 4,035 cases per million Italians and 2,676 cases per million Frenchmen. In Canada the number is just 2,901 cases per million.

What's worse is that the states that took Trump's lead after the first spike, are-- with one exception-- the ones with the most horrifying results. The exception is California, where a cowardly governor took a disastrous go-slow and spineless approach. The most one-day reports on Thursday and ---> Friday.

• Florida +13,965 ---> +11,466
• Texas +10,243 ---> 9,496
• California +9,269 ---> 9,608
• Georgia +3,441 ---> 3,908
• Arizona +3,259 ---> +3,910
• Tennessee +2,479 ---> +2,279
• Louisiana +2,278 ---> +2,179
• North Carolina +2,074 ---> +2,011
• Alabama +2,021 ---> +2,003
• South Carolina +1,838 ---> 1,977

CBS News reporter Sarah Ewall-Wice took on the impact the #NeverTrump Republicans are having in their campaign to get voters to not just avoid voting for Trump, but to vote for Biden and-- with some of these groups-- to abandon Trimp enablers in Congress. Trump enablers in Congress basically equals all Republicans in Congress. She wrote that these groups are appalled by Trump's presidency and "are spending millions on television ads and digital campaigns and weighing ground efforts in an election year that has seen a global pandemic and major economic crisis following the impeachment trial of the president earlier this year." Remember anything like this ever happening before? Ever? It's probably extremely unhealthy for the Democratic Party, which is bound to absorb untold numbers of conservatives and go even further in that direction. But it will help elect Biden and a conservative Democratic Senate and lots of conservative Democrats to the House.

"We haven't really ever seen anything like this before in a general election," said Mitchell West, of Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group. "In primaries, there's always one Republican group that supports one specific Republican candidate and will obviously bash some others, but in terms of a general election, usually you don't see anything like this."

From April through June, The Lincoln Project raised more than $16.8 million, rivaling several prominent Democratic PACs after raising less than $2 million in the first quarter of 2020. The Lincoln Project, whose founders include George Conway, a prominent Trump critic who is married to White House counselor Kellyanne Conway, views this president as an existential threat to the nation, a "clear and present danger to the Constitution and our Republic."

The Lincoln Project's recent financial filing shows donations flooded in from all over the country. According to the group, the average contribution was around $56.

Its first anti-Trump ad aired in March, but it was the Mourning in America ad in early May that really launched the group, attacking Mr. Trump's handling of the economy and coronavirus. The spot was a twist on President Reagan's 1984 reelection campaign ad and attracted the attention of the president when it appeared on Fox News. Mr. Trump blasted the group on Twitter, inadvertently helping the Lincoln Project raise about $2 million in 24 hours.

"He saw the ad, it did what we wanted it to do, and we have been the beneficiaries organizationally of his inability or unwillingness to not respond to things that we know are his weak points," said The Lincoln Project co-founder Reed Galvin. The group has since churned out videos on the coronavirus response, Confederate flags, reported bounties on U.S troops and more. "That's the advantage of being independent of everybody… we say we think this going to move, this is going to hit, and we go do it."

According to Kantar/CMAG, The Lincoln Project has spent nearly $4 million on advertising since March. Now as the general election nears, the group plans to take the fight directly into battleground states to target "soft Republican" and conservative-leaning independent voters. While it plans to continue with targeted advertising, the group also has a rapidly growing army of volunteers including some 3,000 in Michigan.


 


"I think we will be contacting voters directly," Galvin told CBS News. "I think the effectiveness of our messaging creates a potent combination to get in front of these voters who you can convince to make sure they get and vote for Joe Biden, and if they're not going to vote for Joe Biden, then leave Donald Trump blank."

At the same time, Republican Voters against Trump is also going after similar voters, but with a slightly different approach, one that seeks to make Republican voters comfortable with the idea of not supporting their party's incumbent nominee, even if they voted for him in 2016.

"I've been a Republican for more than 30 years in western North Carolina, and I find myself for the first time in many years not able to vote for a Republican," said Steve in one video on the project's website. The project has been compiling hundreds of testimonials from GOP voters in all fifty states.

"I voted for Donald Trump four years ago because I didn't trust Hillary. That was a mistake," said Craig from Colorado in another video. While some voters focus on what's made them turn their backs on Mr. Trump, other voters talk about why they'll be voting for Biden.

"What people were most persuaded by was real stories from real people, so basically we decided to build a project around that for 2020," said Republican Voters against Trump founder Sarah Longwell. The initiative, which is a project of Defending Democracy Together-- the organization founded by conservatives including Bill Kristol-- is now using the videos in its $10 million campaign to digitally target voters in five states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona. Testimonials have also been used as TV ads.

But while a series of recent polls have shown Biden with at least a slight edge, these groups are aware that the president retains a strong base of unshakable Republican support. According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, Mr. Trump would have the support of 84% of Republicans.

Where Anti-Trump Republicans see an opening is in the three states won by the president in 2016 by the slimmest of margins over Hillary Clinton. The presumptive Democratic nominee helps . According to Longwell, early focus groups viewed far left Bernie Sanders as a "nonstarter," but Biden is "not nearly as big a lift for a lot of these right-leaning independents." He puts the crucial suburbs into play.

"A lot of the women who would consider themselves Republican or right-leaning, who voted for Mitt Romney, who voted for John McCain-- those are the people who are moving out of the party fastest, or moving away from Donald Trump the fastest," said Longwell.

That's what some former George W. Bush administration officials also believe. At the beginning of July, they launched 43 Alumni for Joe Biden PAC. The galvanizing moment for the PAC founders was the attack on protesters in Lafayette Park in June.

"Our goal is to really give those folks who either still identify themselves as Republicans or those who have left the party or view that the party has left them permission to vote for Joe Biden, given the circumstances the country is in right now and needing to move in a new direction," said John Farner.

The PAC aims to be a grassroots volunteer-based effort that uses the substantial Bush alumni network to engage Republicans and independents who have traditionally voted for Republicans. Those signing up to get involved online are asked how they would like to help-- on fundraising, field operations or online. The PAC expects to have a strong digital push as well as a get-out-the-vote effort, depending on what the coronavirus landscape looks like in the fall.

"There are a lot of people who have never voted for a Democrat for president before," said Kristopher Purcell. "We feel we can talk to those voters very well."

Yes they can-- and President Biden has more in common with many of them than he has with progressives-- and will feel far more comfortable talking with them than talking with progressives.