Who's Going To Win Tomorrow?

Last week, Danny Goldberg-- author, former chairman of Warner Bros Records, former manager of Nirvana-- penned an article for The Nation, In California Before the Democratic Primary, 'Nobody Knows Anything'. He was talking about Hollywood and the Biz. "Political Hollywood," he wrote, "reflects a national divide among Democrats that is as much generational as it is ideological. The son of a prominent TV show runner recently sent a widely circulated e-mail to his “moderate” parents explaining why he and his friends are campaigning for Sanders-- whose celebrity supporters include Cardi B, John Cusack, Ariana Grande, Emily Ratajkowski, Mark Ruffalo, Susan Sarandon, Danny Glover, Tim Robbins, Steve Skrovan, The Strokes, and Vampire Weekend. On the Sunday before the primary, Sanders is appearing at the Los Angeles Convention Center with Public Enemy, Sarah Silverman, and Dick Van Dyke... The Vermont senator’s lead in California polls is causing angst among many more traditional Democrats, some who believe the debatable theory that Sanders was partially responsible for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss, and many who are worried about his electability."

On Saturday, Status Quo Joe won among elderly, conservative rural African-Americans. But Bernie is leading among African American voters nationally. Maddow, who is an excellent reporter on PutinGate and knows absolutely nothing at all-- and never had-- about American electoral politics, announced on Saturday that "If anybody knows anything about winning the Democratic nomination and about what it takes for a Democratic nominee to win a general election, it is black voters. And if Sen. Sanders continues to underperform systematically with black voters, and if we see him get shellacked-- not just beaten but shellacked tonight in South Carolina-- because of his performance with black voters, that’s an existential question about that nomination." Do you still watch her show? I turn MSNBC off as soon as Chris Hayes is finished. Three of The Intercept sharpest reporters, Nausicaa Renner, Aída Chávez and Akela Lacy burst Maddow's balloon, noting that "Last week, the Reuters-Ipsos poll found Sanders besting Biden by three points nationally among black voters-- certainly a relevant data point when considering whether Sanders can win among black voters... the Hill/HarrisX poll had Sanders up nine. A Morning Consult survey recently found Sanders beating Biden by five among all black primary voters, and thumping him by a 3-1 margin among black voters under 45. In other words, the national picture does not exactly portend a shellacking among black voters-- important context that was kept from MSNBC viewers, who would be left to conclude that the same minority-voter problem that hobbled Sanders’s campaign in 2016 remains a major obstacle. It simply isn’t true."

A handful of commentators, including former Sen. Claire McCaskill, a vituperative opponent of Sanders, acknowledged that South Carolina’s results may not necessarily translate into victory for Biden nationwide. “Unfortunately,” said McCaskill on MSNBC, “there aren’t a lot of Jim Clyburns.” Clyburn, an iconic civil rights leader and the uncontested party leader in South Carolina, as well as the number three Democrat in the House, endorsed Biden last week, giving his campaign the kind of boost that can’t be replicated elsewhere. (McCaskill now works for a dark-money group with links to a project opposing Medicare for All, a major plank of Sanders’s campaign.)

There are other reasons to suspect that Biden’s campaign won’t be able to sustain its high note after South Carolina. The state is one of the demographically oldest. According to CNN exit polls, six percent of voters were between the ages of 17 and 24, and five percent were between the ages of 25 and 29. Around 28 percent of voters in South Carolina were under age 45, compared to 45 percent in Iowa, 35 percent in New Hampshire, and 36 percent in Nevada.

What’s more, Biden spent an enormous proportion of his resources in South Carolina, which he hasn’t done in Super Tuesday states or beyond, and is running low on cash.

...While MSNBC more or less omitted the forward-looking picture of the race, Fox News was more sanguine about Biden’s chances. Ari Fleischer, former press secretary to President George W. Bush, played down what the win could mean for Biden in other states. Only one of the 14 races Biden will compete in on Super Tuesday have a demography similar to South Carolina: Alabama. “If he cannot win anywhere without huge numbers of African American votes, the upcoming battlefield is not favorable to him still,” Fleischer said.

So back to our question, who's going to win tomorrow? I'd bet on Bernie-- big. Let's look at the state polls via RealClearPolitics:

California- 415 delegates

• Bernie- 34.3%
• Elizabeth- 17.3%
• Biden- 13.0%
• Bloomberg- 10.5%
• Mayo Pete- 9.5%
• Klobuchar- 5.3%
• Tulsi- 1.3%

Texas- 228 delegates

• Bernie- 29.7%
• Biden- 20.8%
• Bloomberg- 18.0%
• Elizabeth- 12.7%
• Mayo Pete- 7.5%
• Klobuchar- 3.8%
• Tulsi- 0.7%

North Carolina- 110 delegates

• Biden- 25.6%
• Bernie- 23.4%
• Bloomberg- 16.0%
• Elizabeth- 11.0%
• Mayo Pete- 6.8%
• Klobuchar- 5.0%
• Tulsi- 1.0%

Virginia- 99 delegates

• Bernie- 25.0%
• Bloomberg- 19.5%
• Biden- 18.5%
• Mayo Pete- 11.5%
• Elizabeth- 11.0%
• Klobuchar- 7.0%
• Tulsi- 1.0%

Massachusetts- 91 delegates

• Bernie- 24.7%
• Elizabeth- 20.7%
• Mayo Pete- 13.3%
• Bloomberg- 11.7%
• Biden- 10.7%
• Klobuchar- 6.0%
• Tulsi- 2.0%

Minnesota- 75 delegates

• Klobuchar- 29%
• Bernie- 23%
• Elizabeth- 11%
• Biden- 8%
• Bloomberg- 3%
• Mayo Pete- 3%
• Tulsi- 1%

Colorado- 67 delegates

• Bernie- 30.5%
• Elizabeth- 17.5%
• Mayo Pete- 13.0%
• Bloomberg- 12.5%
• Biden- 10.5%
• Klobuchar- 6.0%
• Tulsi- 1.0%

Oklahoma- 37 delegates

• Biden- 21%
• Bloomberg- 20%
• Bernie- 13%
• Mayo Pete- 10%
• Elizabeth- 9%
• Klobuchar- 7%
• Tulsi- 0%

Arkansas- 31 delegates

• Bloomberg- 20%
• Biden- 19%
• Bernie- 16%
• Mayo Pete- 16%
• Elizabeth- 9%
• Klobuchar- 5%
• Tulsi- 0%

Utah- 29 delegates

• Bernie- 27.5%
• Elizabeth- 14.5%
• Bloomberg- 14.5%
• Mayo Pete- 11.5%
• Biden- 9.0%
• Klobuchar- 3.5%
• Tulsi- 0%

Maine- 24 delegates

• Bernie- 25%
• Mayo Pete- 16%
• Bloomberg- 14%
• Biden- 12%
• Elizabeth- 9%
• Klobuchar- 4%
• Tulsi- 3%

Vermont- 16 delegates

• Bernie- 51%
• Mayo Pete- 13%
• Elizabeth- 9%
• Bloomberg- 7%
• Biden- 5%
• Klobuchar- 4%
• Tulsi- 1%

There is no available public polling for Tennessee (64), Alabama (52), Democrats Abroad (13) and American Samoa (6), though Biden is presumed to be leading significantly in Alabama and very tightly in Tennessee, while Bernie is likely to win in American Samoa and among Americans Abroad. Although Bloomberg spent incredible amounts of money for Super Tuesday, he isn't expected to win any states but will gather delegates in Alabama, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia. So the money is working to some extent and there are Democrats stupid enough to be brainwashed by advertising.

These are the number of delegates each candidate has won so far, the day before Super Tuesday.