The Comeback Codger

The big winner Tuesday night was Trump, as the same feeble and untenable Democratic establishment turned out its zombies to do exactly what they did in 2016-- hand the fascist leader a victory on a silver platter with a pointless status quo anti-change candidate. Biden, a nearly brain dead and completely flawed candidate who should be in a nursing home hot drinking hot cocoa was crowned champion of the anti-working class wing of the Democratic Party, by voters generally too stupid to know any better on the one hand, and voters as self-serving and greedy as any group of Republicans on the other hand. Sorry if that fits you. Go read Daily Kos or some other blog.

Tuesday morning before dawn, the Washington Post published a piece by Matt Viser noting that "A parade of establishment Democrats began coalescing around Joe Biden on Monday, an attempt to bolster the former vice president and stall Sen. Bernie Sanders’s ascent as voters in 14 states prepared to cast ballots Tuesday, the most consequential day of the presidential nominating contest." Viser didn't mention that Obama had spent hours on the phones pulling the strings that could help anoint ole Status Quo Joe... and guarantee a second catastrophic term for Trumpanzee.

Team Biden all got onto planes-- what heroism!-- and headed for Dallas to invigorate Biden's sputtering-to-life Texas campaign. Even L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti-- whose record on homelessness has made him 110% toxic in his own city-- showed up... joined Mayo Pete, Klobuchar and Beto! in Dallas.

Alex Slater, one of the dozens of DC lobbyists who made up the backbone of the Mayo Pete campaign, sent a letter out to everyone online who had ever contributed any money to a Democratic Party candidate. His letter, in part:

Some want to wait until after tonight's results or beyond before choosing who to support. I respect that-- it’s barely 24 hours since Pete conceded, and each candidate has legitimate merits. Also, who wants to be proven wrong twice? These are very legitimate positions. But listening to many of you I have personally come to the belief that the political moment deserves action and conviction.

That’s why I’m firmly following Pete’s lead in endorsing Vice President Joe Biden, joining to support his campaign and asking you to consider doing this same.

As I told the Wall Street Journal last night: “Biden is the clear choice to carry the Buttigieg legacy in this campaign.’  It feels inappropriate to pivot so fast, but the situation is urgent and the decision is clear. Mathematically, Joe Biden has by far the best shot at beating Bernie Sanders in this race. And politically, Joe Biden is the best equipped to take on Donald Trump in November.

In endorsing last night, Pete declared that he is joining a campaign that speaks to the soul of the nation. He’s right. Pete for America tried to model the principles of dignity, empathy and respect-- principles Vice President has been practicing his whole life. That’s part of the reason Joe Biden can mobilize a broad base of our party and reach out to moderates.

And on the issues.that affect Pete’s generation (and younger), the Vice President has an exceptional record on climate change, fair housing, gun violence and the passage of the affordable care act-- legally threatened once again today.

Finally, and critically, Joe Biden has the best chance of carrying state and down-ballot races. And in the event of a Republican controlled Senate he’ll have a better chance of passing his agenda. Read Ross Douthat on that.

I realize many of you may not be ready. And/but/when you are, please consider getting involved.

First, join the finance team or host an event with me on March 12. I’ve been talking to the campaign since yesterday-- they report a surge in support and need people to host events with the Vice President or surrogates. Reply to this email if you're interested.

Second, you can MEET THE VICE PRESIDENT HIMSELF THIS FRIDAY in DC in an event for which I’ve jumped on the host committee.

Year after year, Americans rate lobbyists as the least trustworthy people in the country. Politicians are rated only marginally more trustworthy. Everyone knows both groups lie for a living. And the more successful they are at seeming to be telling the truth, the more influence they accrue and the more money they make. That whole class is now the face of the increasingly senile Status Quo Joe and his putrid campaign for the presidency.

Viser captured the moment: "Biden seemed taken aback by the swift change in fortunes. He told Buttigieg that he reminded him of his late son, Beau, the highest compliment he can offer. He told the crowd Klobuchar has a long political future ahead, and he told O’Rourke, whose candidacy was marked by liberal positions on gun control, 'You’re going to take care of the gun problem with me. You’re going to be the one who leads this effort.'"

It was the second straight day that moderates, previously paralyzed over whom to rally behind, rushed to join Biden’s campaign. Harry M. Reid, a former Senate majority leader from Nevada, endorsed Biden along with other Democrats including Susan E. Rice, a former national security adviser to President Barack Obama; political activist and actress Alyssa Milano; Victoria Reggie Kennedy, the widow of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA); and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL).

There are still looming questions about Biden-- his propensity for gaffes, the moments when he searches for words or, on Monday, his struggle to come up with well-worn phrases in the Declaration of Independence before shouting, “You know . . . the thing!”-- but his campaign has found unmistakable new momentum that it is hoping to carry into the elections Tuesday.

Not everyone was playing to his benefit, however. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg both pledged Monday to stay in the race.

...Sanders remains perhaps the most formidable force in the race, finishing in the top two in all four early states and holding on to a polling advantage in numerous delegate-rich states that will vote Tuesday. He also has a significant financial edge and a grass-roots army that Biden so far has lacked, and he was defiant Monday in the face of the moderate consolidation.

“Look, we are taking on the establishment. And I fully understand-- no great surprise to me-- that establishment politicians are not going to endorse us,” Sanders told reporters in Salt Lake City, just minutes before the news broke that Klobuchar was ending her campaign and planning to support Biden.

“The establishment will rally around the establishment candidate,” he said. “That’s the simple reality.”

Shortly after Reid announced his endorsement of Biden, Faiz Shakir, who is Sanders’s campaign manager but also worked for Reid, wrote on Twitter: “Disappointing. I’ll forever have respect and love for Senator Reid. But I’m old enough to remember when he thought Biden’s ideas were worthy of being put in a fireplace.”

Now let's look at this chart released Monday night by Advanced Symbiotics after their Artificial Intelligence tool, Polly, recalculated the Super Tuesday results in 7 important Super Tuesday states after Klobuchar and Mayo had dropped out and urged their supporters to switch to Status Quo Joe.

Click on the image to make it legible

I explicitly challenged Polly over Minnesota, where she assumed that virtually all of Klobuchar's supporters would switch to Biden, giving him a win over Bernie. Polly was correct; I was wrong. I put too much faith in Minnesota voters.

In 2016 Bernie had beaten Hillary in Minnesota's caucuses 118,195 (61.6%) to 73,510 (38.4%). In fact, he beat her in all 8 congressional districts. He also had significantly more votes that Trump in every single congressional district, including in the red districts. The reddest district in the state, MN-06, has a PVI of R+12 was Bachmann's old district and is now occupied by the head of the NRCC, Tom Emmer. Bernie's win over Hillary was significant there-- 7,881 (62.4%) to 4,756 (37.6%)-- but Bernie also out-polled Trump, who came in 3rd with 4,005. (Marco Rubio came in first in the GOP primary and Bernie had almost 2,000 more votes than he had as well.) Yesterday, Klobuchar's supporters followed her suggestion and backed Biden.

Bernie came in first in just 4 states-- California, Vermont, Utah and Colorado-- while Status Quo Joe came in first in 9-- Alabama, Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Massachusetts and-- I lost my bet-- Minnesota. Maine is too close to call. And Maine will be splitting it's delegates pretty evenly between Biden and Bernie no matter what happens.

Nationally, Biden will have won more delegates by the time all the counting is done. This is what we have as of this morning:

• Alabama (52 delegates)-- 40 Biden, 7 Bernie, 1 Bloomberg
• Arkansas (31 delegates)-- 16 Biden, 8 Bernie, 4 Bloomberg
• California (415 delegates)-- 72 Bernie, 21 Biden, 8 Bloomberg, 7 Elizabeth
• Colorado (66 delegates)-- 20 Bernie, 9 Biden, 9 Bloomberg, 1 Elizabeth
• Maine (24 delegates)-- 8 Bernie, 8 Biden, 2 Elizabeth
• Massachusetts (91 delegates)-- 34 Biden, 26 Bernie, 17 Elizabeth
• Minnesota (75 delegates)-- 38 Biden, 26 Bernie, 10 Elizabeth
• North Carolina (110 delegates)
• Oklahoma (37 delegates)-- 21 Biden, 13 Bernie, 3 Bloomberg
• Tennessee (64 delegates)-- 28 Biden, 15 Bernie, 7 Bloomberg, 1 Elizabeth
• Texas (228 delegates)-- 56 Biden, 50 Bernie, 4 Bloomberg
• Utah (29 delegates)-- 9 Bernie, 2 Bloomberg, 1 Biden
• Vermont (16 delegates)-- 11 Bernie, 5 Biden
• Virginia (99 delegates)-- 66 Biden, 31 Bernie, 2 Elizabeth
• American Samoa (6 delegates)-- 4 Bloomberg, 1 Tulsi
• Americans Abroad (13 delegates)-- voting ends March 10

Important down-ballot races in California's jungle primary:

• CA-12- Progressive Democrat Shahid Buttar beat the Republican trying to challenge Pelosi and Buttar will be on the general election ballot against her. You can contribute to his campaign here.

• CA-16- Corporate whore and Blue Dog Jim Costa (37.46%) will face Republican Kevin Cookingham, (38.54%) having weathered an attack by a moderate Dem, Esmeralda Soria (18.37%) and progressive Kim Williams (5.63%).

• CA-22- Useless conservative Democrat Phil Arballo (23.7%) will lose to Devin Nunes (59.9%) in the general election, having beaten out progressives Bobby Bliatout (11.2%) and Dary Rezvani (2.8%).

• CA-25- Conservative Democrat Christy Smith (29.79%) will face GOP newcomer Mike Garcia (25.53%), with ex-Rep Steve Knight (20.13%) in 3rd and progressive champion Cenk Uygur (5.19%) in 4th. Trump coffee boy George Papadopoulos came in 9th with 1.93% of the vote.

• CA-50- Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar (34.39%) will face off against Republican ex-Rep Darrell Issa (24.86%) and not Republican Carl DeMaio (20.98%).

• CA-53- Establishment heiress Sara Jacobs and progressive Georgette Gómez will face off in the general election, both having beaten Republican Chris Stoddard, despite some last minute dirty tricks by Jacobs to boost Stoddard. You can contribute to Gómez here.

There was a big Republican race for the right to challenge conservative Democrat Doug Jones for his Senate seat. There will be a runoff between two extreme right Republicans, Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions. Hopefully no one will ever hear Roy Moore's name again until her funeral.

• Tommy Tuberville- 235,461 (32%)
• Jeff Sessions- 227,492 (31%)
• Bradley Byrne- 195,450 (27%)
• Roy Moore- 50,988 (7%)

The Texas Senate race was close, but the two establishment candidates-- M.J. Hegar (22.57%) and Royce West (14.16%) will be facing off in a runoff, having beaten the progressive in the contest, Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez (13.66%).

Among House Democratic candidates there was some good news and some bad news. The worst news was that Republican-backed New Dem (the fakest of the fake Democrats) Henry Cuellar narrowly beat progressive champion Jessica Cisneros 38,767 (51.84%) to 36,021 (48.16%). That last minute injection of Koch brothers money won the day for the DCCC's candidate.

Much better news in TX-10, where progressive Mike Siegel came out on top against two pointless establishment Dems with no reason to be running other than self-gratification. Siegel will face Gandhi in a runoff. You can contribute to Mike's campaign here.

• Mike Siegel- 21,051 (45.17%)
• Pritesh Gandhi- 14,858 (31.88%)
• Shannon Hutcheson- 10,698 (22.95%)

TX-24 will see a runoff between Kim Olson (41.7%) and progressive Candace Valenzuela (30.2%).

TX-25 was a win-win situation for Dems with two great candidates, Julie Oliver and Heidi Sloan. Julie won with 70% of the vote and you can contribute to her campaign here.