Light At The End Of The Tunnel? Nobel Laureate Says Yes-- But There's A Big Caveat: Social Distancing

The President Meets Wall Street by Nancy Ohanian

Michael Levitt is a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist and he doesn't think the pandemic is going to be as bad as many others do. And he has reason for optimism. Levitt, reported the L.A. Times, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted. "Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world. While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario-- especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place."

Ah... "reasonable social distancing measures." We don't have that yet-- not even close. And it would be hard to imagine Trump has the courage or political will to mandate any such thing. Levitt almost sounds like Trump in some ways: "What we need is to control the panic... we’re going to be fine." Mozingo reports that Levitt "also blames the media for causing unnecessary panic by focusing on the relentless increase in the cumulative number of cases and spotlighting celebrities who contract the virus. By contrast, the flu has sickened 36 million Americans since September and killed an estimated 22,000, according to the CDC, but those deaths are largely unreported. He fears the public health measures that have shut down large swaths of the economy could cause their own health catastrophe, as lost jobs lead to poverty and hopelessness. Time and again, researchers have seen that suicide rates go up when the economy spirals down."

Levitt explained that he is seeing "turning points in other nations, even ones that did not instill the draconian isolation measures that China did. He analyzed 78 countries with more than 50 reported cases of COVID-19 every day and sees 'signs of recovery.' He’s not looking at cumulative cases, but the number of new cases every day-- and the percentage growth in that number from one day to the next.

In Iran, for instance, the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases remained relatively flat last week, from 1,133 on Monday to 1,148 on Friday.

Of course, recovering from an initial outbreak doesn’t mean the virus won’t come back: China is now fighting to stop new waves of infection coming in from places where the virus is spreading out of control. Other countries are bound to face the same problem as well.

Levitt acknowledges that his figures are messy, and that the official case counts in many areas are too low because testing is spotty. But even with incomplete data, “a consistent decline means there’s some factor at work that is not just noise in the numbers,” he said.

The trajectory of deaths backs up his findings, he said. So do data from outbreaks in confined environments, such as the one on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Out of 3,711 people on board, 712 were infected and eight died. In his view, this unintended experiment in coronavirus spread will help researchers estimate the number of fatalities that would occur in a fully infected population.

Levitt said the social-distancing mandates are critical-- particularly the ban on large gatherings-- because the virus is so new that the population has no immunity to it and a vaccine is still many months away. “This is not the time to go out drinking with your buddies.”

...The virus can grow exponentially only when it is undetected and no one is acting to control it, Levitt said. That’s what happened in South Korea, when it ripped through a closed-off cult that refused to report the illness.

“People need to be considered heroes for announcing they have this virus,” he said.

The goal needs to be better early detection-- not just through testing but perhaps with body temperature surveillance, which China is implementing-- and immediate social isolation.

While the COVID-19 fatality rate appears to be significantly higher than that of the flu, Levitt says it is quite simply put, “not the end of the world.”

Based on the experience of the Diamond Princess, he estimates that being exposed to the new coronavirus doubles a person’s risk of dying in the next two months. However, most people have an extremely low risk of death in a two-month period, and that risk remains extremely low even when doubled.

“The real situation is not as nearly as terrible as they make it out to be,” he said.

OK, now back to social distancing. In the U.S. it is neither widespread, strict nor mandatory. Here in L.A., there are more loopholes than closures. Most people in grocery stores-- let alone workers-- are wearing masks or gloves. Trump's cryptic all-caps tweet yesterday-- "WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END IF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!-- presumably referred to deciding on a national lockdown or not. Remember, even partial lockdowns are largely in blue states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, California, Illinois and purple states like Ohio and Florida. Deep red Trump states are still not taking the pandemic seriously for the most part and social distancing at Corona beer parties in Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama and Wyoming is something to laugh at.

Jonathan Swan reported that Señor Trumpanzee and his team "are losing patience with the doctors’ orders. Amid dire predictions for jobs and the economy, the White House is beginning to send signals to business that there's light at the end of the tunnel-- that the squeeze from nationwide social distancing won't be endless... [Pence] signaled the change in tone earlier when he said the CDC will issue guidance today allowing people exposed to the coronavirus to return to work sooner by wearing a mask for a certain length of time. Trump’s tweet and Pence's comment supply the strongest public signals we've seen that the administration is looking for ways to get people out in the world again to fire up the economy-- perhaps much sooner than Dr. Fauci would like... [Trumpanzee, Inc has] only limited patience for keeping the economy shut down. They are watching stocks tumble and unemployment skyrocket. At the end of the 15-day period, there will likely be a serious clash between the public health experts-- who will almost certainly favor a longer period of nationwide social distancing and quarantining-- versus the president and his economic and political aides, who are anxious to restart the economy."

Europeans have moved more rapidly than Americans to embrace social distancing and societal lockdowns-- but not as thoroughly as they have in China, Singapore and Taiwan where they have been compulsory and enforced... and successful. European countries are feeling the pushback from spoiled, self-indulgent citizens now. Some, like Spain and Italy, have sent troops to help maintain lockdowns. James McAuley reported that "In a time when Europeans and Americans have been told to practice 'social distancing' and to remain at home, people were still out and about in France and across Europe. They were shopping in proximity at bustling market stalls, running in large numbers down public promenades and, in some cases, scoffing at various government restrictions designed to keep them safe."

Over the past week, a number of European governments have urged their citizens to take coronavirus seriously by imposing strict limits on movement outside the home. The question now is how governments can actually enforce those rules, with so many people seemingly willing to break them.

Different European governments have devised different answers to that question, with no solution proved to be entirely effective.

Italy-- with more deaths caused by covid-19 than anywhere in the world, including at least 793 since Friday-- has been struggling to enforce its lockdown with police checks and has already called in military forces in two regions: Campania and Sicily. On Friday, Italy’s Interior Ministry reported that it still cited a record total of 9,600 people on Thursday for violating the terms of the lockdown.

Spanish police added extra patrols and slapped fines on people ignoring the orders to mostly stay at home. The “time has come to implement fully the state of alert,” said a statement Friday from Spain’s Interior Ministry.

Lockdown rules appeared to mean less in France, where the government relies on fines to enforce its terms. But the threat of a 135 euro ($160) fine did not prevent French police from having to stop 70,000 people and fining 4,095 in the first 24 hours of lockdown, according to a statement by France’s Interior Minister, Christophe Castaner. He called those who ignored the government’s rules “imbeciles.”

As they struggle to enforce their own rules, European governments have mostly turned to imposing stricter measures. But it remains unclear whether citizens will respond to further limitations, either.

In France, where President Emmanuel Macron announced a nationwide lockdown that started Tuesday at noon-- an extendible period of 15 days during which only essential businesses were to remain open-- local authorities have begun to take matters into their own hands.

On Friday, Christian Estrosi, the mayor of Nice on France’s Mediterranean coast, closed the city’s famous Promenade des Anglais, a scenic waterfront walkway and running path where crowds of people were gathering to do their daily exercise in groups that could still facilitate the transmission of the coronavirus. Estrosi also imposed an 8 p.m. curfew on all city residents.

“From 8 p.m., once the shops and pharmacies are closed, no one has any reason to go out,” he told France’s Journal du Dimanche newspaper. “So we don’t go out, except the staff specifically authorized by this decree-- medical staff or those who make home visits to vulnerable people.”

Similar measures were taken in Paris, where Mayor Anne Hidalgo and police chief Didier Lallement expressed their exasperation that people were simply not listening to the government’s orders. “Certain areas of the capital remain overly frequented by walkers and joggers,” they wrote in a joint statement Thursday, noting in particular the banks of the Seine River, the Champ de Mars park by the Eiffel Tower and the Invalides Esplanade.

Police essentially banned running and exercising along the banks of the Seine by Friday, and France’s Ministry of Sports also clarified that once-daily walks or runs “to stretch legs” should be brief and should happen within immediate vicinity of one’s home address. “You have to chose between going shopping and going for a run,” the ministry said.

But there are significant loopholes in enforcing that rule. France requires all those who leave their homes to carry a government-issued “attestation” form certifying the essential nature of their daily visit outside. But the forms have no time-stamp, and police officers who ask to see them have no way of knowing how many times a person has been out, or how far he or she may have wandered.

Germany, meanwhile, has threatened to impose a mandatory curfew if people do not take social distancing seriously after many crowded parks during spring sunshine last week.

Health authorities are now using anonymous cellphone data to track whether measures to stop people gathering are working and have said this weekend will be a key test. A forecast drop in temperatures may also help encourage people to stay home.

With 16 federal states, each of which have their own health authorities, distancing measures have been uneven across the country-- but all have agreed to close bars and nightclubs, nonessential shops, and restaurants are also closed in the evening.

However, some social distancing measures have been harder to enforce than others, with a ban on children’s playgrounds receiving particular pushback.

Red tape around playgrounds in Berlin was torn down last week, and some were filled with families even after the restrictions came into place. On Friday, German media reported that the local authorities in one town in North Rhine-Westphalia, the worst hit German state, had started dismantling swing sets and benches after orders to leave the playgrounds were ignored.

“The playgrounds in the city area were still full,” Dorsten’s Mayor Tobias Stockhoff was quoted as saying by Germany’s Bild newspaper. “We decided today to dismantle what can be dismantled. We are sending a clear signal.”

In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced Friday the closure of all pubs, restaurants, bars, gyms and nightclubs starting Saturday. During his announcement, he also appealed to those considering going out one last time before the closure came into effect.

“Please don’t,” Johnson said. “You may think you are invincible, but there is no guarantee you will get mild symptoms, and you can still be a carrier of the disease and pass it on to others.”

Many listened to his advice, but many did not. Even after the order to close, pubs across England were filled with drinkers getting in last rounds on Friday night.

The Metropolitan Police in London and constabularies around Britain are on standby, prepared to enforce the close-down order if necessary, officials said.

Pubs in Cornwall and Devon were giving away free beer Friday night after Johnson ordered the establishments shuttered.

Mike Newton, control room supervisor for the local police, told the DevonLive news site: “Tonight was going to go one of two ways. Sadly it’s been stupidly busy.”

You think joggers at the Invalides Esplanade and folks in North Rhine-Westphalia, Cornwall and Devon are a problem? Stop for a moment. How do you think these fine folks in Mississippi are going to react when someone tries telling them about social distancing and how they have to start practicing it? And Wyoming!