Despite The Iowa Democratic Party's Screw Ups Tonight, It Looks Like Bernie Won-- And Tomorrow A Berniecrat Can Win A Congressional Seat In Maryland

Immense turn-out in Iowa this evening-- bigger than anyone expected and the biggest in history in some the precincts.

Tomorrow is election day in Baltimore-- actually a special election to fill the open 7th district seat, previously held by Elijah Cummings. The district includes the western and northern parts of the city, plus suburbs and small towns to the west and north of the city in Baltimore and Howard counties. The district is unassailably blue-- PVI is D+26. Blue America endorsed state Senator Jill Carter and yesterday, so did the Baltimore Sun.

The 55-year-old city resident, lawyer and daughter of civil rights leader Walter P. Carter would add a female voice to the Maryland delegation, which has been missing since Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski retired in 2017, and she knows Baltimore-- the heart of the district. Ms. Carter was an early opponent of a mass arrest policy that disproportionately targeted African American residents in the city under the Martin O’Malley mayoral administration. And she has continued the theme of equity in justice and improving opportunities for those caught up in the system ever since.

She was also behind legislation introduced last session to end contracts between the University of Maryland Medical System and its board members, which launched a Baltimore Sun investigation that led to the board’s overhaul, and Mayor Catherine Pugh’s resignation and criminal conviction. And she has long served Maryland: She was also a state delegate for 14 years.

The big criticism that the editors of the Sun managed to offer is that "Senator Carter is considered the most progressive candidate in the race, and some of her ideas lean too far left." That should an incentive for even more people to vote for her than the rest of the endorsement!

It is also expected that Biden's big loss in Iowa today, will reverberate everywhere else. No one wants to back a loser. In fact, Biden's firewall (South Carolina) was already starting to get shaky even before today's verdict. Change Research polled the state's Democratic primary voters and noticed Biden is finally beginning to collapse in South Carolina. Praise the Lord!

The Real Clear Politics polling average still shows Biden way ahead with 30.5%, compared to 17.0% for Bernie, 16.5% for Steyer and 10.5% for Elizabeth. But the new poll tells a familiar story: people get to know who Biden really is and they abandon him in droves:

The Sunday Post and Courier reported that "Biden's hold atop South Carolina Democratic primary polls has never wavered over nearly a year. But the former vice president’s lead continues to slide with the South’s first primary just under a month away. Biden, who once led by as much as 31 percentage points in South Carolina, holds a 5-point edge over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the latest Post and Courier-Change Research poll released Sunday. Biden sits at 25 percent to Sanders’ 20 percent.

Biden’s lead in South Carolina has diminished because his support has fallen from a high of 46 percent in May. Few political observers expected Biden to win South Carolina by the 20-point leads he held over the summer when the Democratic field boasted two dozen contenders.

His drop in S.C. support comes as the race becomes more focused with the field cut by more than half and the leading contenders consistently standing out in the early-voting states.

Sanders has taken leads in Iowa and New Hampshire with Warren and Buttigieg joining Biden to round out the top four leaders. Iowa voters head to their caucus Monday. New Hampshire holds its primary on Feb. 11.

Biden keeps a lead in South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary thanks to black voters who account for close to two-thirds of Democratic ballots cast. 

Biden was once the choice of half the state's African-American Democratic primary voters, and that has now shrunk to less than a third. I'm going to guess that back-to-back Bernie wins in Iowa and New Hampshire (a week from now) will help close that 5% gap between himself and Biden. And if Bernie wins in Nevada on February 22, you'll see Biden's support in the Palmetto State disintegrate entirely. Want to help Bernie drive home his message in South Carolina? That's why I included the DWT Bernie thermometer on the right.