Which Are The Republicans Most Likely To Lose Their Seats Because Of Their Lockstep Support Of Trump?

This week, Reuters released a new Ipsos poll showing that 72% of registered voters want to see witnesses-- such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo-- testify in Trump's impeachment trial-- and that includes 69% of Republican voters. Even more Republican voters-- 73% of them-- also said senators should "act as impartial jurors" during the trial. Last week Washington Post reporter Griff Witte brought up Cory Gardner and, yes, he's absolutely one of the senators whose head has been buried up Trump's ass to the detriment of his own reelection efforts. Others are Susan Collins (ME), Martha McSally (AZ), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), David Perdue (GA), Kelly Loeffler (GA) and Dan Sullivan (AK). And if the 2020 wave is big enough, Steve Daines (MT), Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS), John Cornyn (TX) and Moscow Mitch (KY) himself could find themselves in trouble with voters as well.

Colorado is a state that has been steadily swinging blue since Gardner was first elected. Obama beat McCain in 2008 53.66% to 44.71% and then beat Romney 51.49% to 46.13%. Even as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton managed to beat Trump by about 5 points-- 48.16% to 43.25%. The governor, a progressive Democratic gay man won his race in 2018 by 11 points-- and both houses of the state legislature are controlled by the Democrats (41-24 seats in the lower house and 19-16 in the state Senate).

Witte, though, doesn't know much about Cory Gardner. He claims Gardner was a moderate. Gardner was a hard core right-winger in the state legislator and the only times he votes with the Democrats is when he feels voting with the GOP will harm his reelection prospects. Does he have a problem now! He's a dead duck no matter what he does! "Gardner," wrote Witte "is perhaps the most vulnerable Republican of all this year, seeking a second term in a state Trump lost by nearly five points in 2016. Colorado has only shifted further left in the time since as younger, more liberal voters have flooded in and Democrats have tipped a registration deficit in their favor. But rather than run away from Trump as the evidence mounts that he used his office to seek personal political gain, Gardner has drawn nearer."

What little he has said about impeachment-- advisers acknowledge he is being conspicuously quiet on the issue-- has been critical, describing the process as “a total circus.” Having already endorsed Trump’s reelection, the 45-year-old has shown no inclination to bow to Democratic demands for what they describe as the basic ingredients of a fair trial.

The choice reflects the hyperpartisan backdrop as impeachment moves to the Senate for only the third time in American history: Even in a state where voters are famously independent and where demographics favor the Democrats, Republicans believe they have little to gain politically by swimming against the Trump tide.

“Gardner has made a calculus: The Republican base is more necessary to his reelection than being that profile in courage who would try to persuade the persuadable middle,” said Kyle Saunders, a political science professor at Colorado State.

Strategically, Saunders said, that make sense: Colorado has more unaffiliated voters than it has either Democrats or Republicans. But he estimated that only up to 10 percent of the electorate is truly up for grabs, with opinions about Trump deeply entrenched on either side.

While a significant majority of Coloradans disapprove of Trump’s performance, Gardner will need Republicans, who are nearly unanimous in their support of the president, if he has any hope of keeping his seat.

“If he takes on Trump now,” Saunders said, “he demobilizes the base and has absolutely no chance.”

Sticking with the president offers its own peril, allies acknowledge.

“Cory’s got a tough race. The odds are 50-50-- at best,” said Dick Wadhams, a veteran Republican strategist in Colorado and a friend of Gardner’s. “There’s no doubt about it: Trump is a liability.”

“Cory Gardner has chosen a path, and he’s very likely to stick with it: blind allegiance to Donald Trump,” said Craig Hughes, a Democratic strategist who managed Michael F. Bennet’s winning 2010 Senate campaign. “There are places where such a path might make more sense. Here, it’s going to cause real problems.”

The object of Gardner’s strategy, Hughes surmised, has been to avoid a primary challenge on his right flank. That appears to have been successful, with no serious competition in sight.

But Gardner-- whose office declined an interview request for this story, as it has with nearly all impeachment-related media queries in recent months-- still faces a mortal threat to his Senate career.

In November, he is likely to be pitted against either a conservative Democrat John Hickenlooper or against the former speaker of the Colorado House, the progressive in the primary. Romanoff is already hammering Gardner or his ties to Trump, a president who is deep underwater with Colorado voters. Frackenlooper is likely to follow Romanoff's stance.

Fox legal expert Andrew Napolitano penned an OpEd for FoxNews.com yesterday, basically saying Trump is guilty and needs to be removed from office. By all means read the whole thing; but here's how he ends: "What is required for removal of the president? A demonstration of presidential commission of high crimes and misdemeanors, of which in Trump's case the evidence is ample and uncontradicted." Trump doesn't like this kind of talk seeping into his fan base's bubble. Yesterday he went out of his mind when he realized that Fox & Friends viewers saw this ad that Michael Bloomberg made and ran.